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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

A Confidence-Based Approach to Including Survivors in a Probabilistic TID Failure Assessment

A probabilistic total ionizing dose (TID) failure assessment is extended to include survivor data, enabling the bounding of failure probability to a desired confidence level (CL) without failure data. The extension provides an avenue for analyzing microelectronics tested for TID without reaching a failure mode, a scenario often encountered by missions utilizing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies. Using the type-I censored likelihood formulation and a realistic upper bound on expected device performance, the failure probability space is bounded by confidence contours within the context of a variable environment. The framework accommodates any type of distribution assumed for the part failure or the environment under consideration. Furthermore, the framework can be utilized pre-emptively to plan future device TID tests, minimizing costs while meeting survival requirements. Heritage data may also be used as survivors to further minimize testing costs when parts are from the same lot, but the amount of constraint derived from heritage is limited. Altogether, the framework enables a formal, mathematically rigorous analysis of radiation tolerant devices tested to a maximum dose, as well as flight heritage, in a hardness assurance methodology.

confidence↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

emergency operation↗
NASA NTRS2013

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

aircraft engine performance↗
NASA NTRS2015

Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

emergency operation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation Based Inference with Domain Adaptation for Strong Gravitational Lensing

Simulation based inference leverages machine learning to carry out Bayesian inference for systems with intractable likelihoods. However, transitioning a network trained on simulated data to real data runs the risk of encountering domain shift, leading to performance losses. We attempt to implement domain adaptation into the sbi neural posterior estimation framework using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy as an additional network loss. We test two network architectures and use masked autoregressive flow for density estimation. We test the network on a set of 400,000 simulated strong gravitational lensing images generated using deeplenstronomy. The source domain is defined as low noise whereas the target domain has a noise profile sampled from experimentally derived DES survey conditions. We find that, while DA does lead to performance improvements, they are marginal at ~6% less inference error. We also find a similar marginal improvement in uncertainty calibration at around 8%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1990

Location of a faulty module in a computing system

Considering the interplay between different phases of fault tolerance, a new problem of locating a faulty module in a computing system is formulated and solved. First, the probability of each module being faulty, or faulty probability, is calculated using the likelihood principle from the model parameters for fault detection, diagnostics, error propagation, and error detection. Then, based on the faulty probabilities and a given required diagnostic coverage, the order in which modules are to be diagnosed and the maximum time allotted to diagnose each module are determined by minimizing the average total diagnostic time. An example is presented and analyzed to answer the question of whether or not a system should delay the diagnosis upon detection of an error until more errors are detected.

Lin, Tein-Hsiang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation based inference with domain adaptation for strong gravitational lensing

Simulation based inference leverages machine learning to carry out Bayesian inference in systems with intractable likelihoods. However, transitioning a network trained on simulated data to real data runs the risk of encountering domain shift, leading to performance losses. We attempt to implement domain adaptation into the sbi neural posterior estimation framework using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy as an additional network loss, using masked autoregressive fow (MAF) as our density estimator. We test the network on a set of 400,000 simulated strong gravitational lensing images generated using deeplenstronomy. The source domain is defined as low noise whereas the target domain has a noise profile sampled from experimentally derived DES survey conditions. We find that SBI appears robust against small changes in the data with similar performance on source and target. Moreover, while DA does lead to performance improvements, they are marginal at 6% less inference error.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Analysis of San Francisco Bar Pilot Dispatch Records: Preliminary Report

Maritime pilots licensed by the San Francisco Board of Pilot Commissioners perform safety-critical tasks in a demanding environment, working in all weather and at all times of day and night. Since 1850, San Francisco maritime pilots have been known as Bar Pilots because their duties include guiding ships safely across the large sand bar that lies west of the Golden Gate. Schedules and Work Hours Records for San Francisco Bay Bar Pilots were analyzed to determine the minimum and maximum work periods, the frequency of extended work hours, the frequency of night work and the rotation of work hours. A mathematical model is being applied to predict fatigue in order to identify schedules that may have a high likelihood of fatigue. This presentation provides a progress report on the research thus far.

marine pilots↗
NASA NTRS1988

A catalog of small, optically selected molecular clouds - Optical, infrared, and millimeter properties

A catalog of small, optically selected molecular clouds is presented. The relevant selection criteria were small angular size, large central opacity, and freedom from connecting opaque material. The mean ellipticity of the clouds in the catalog is 2.0, with a maximum ellipticity of 7. The position angle of the clouds is uncorrelated with the direction of the Galactic plane. About 60 percent of the cataloged clouds have associated IRAS Point Source Catalog (PSC) sources in their cores or envelopes. The likelihood of a detection of a PSC source is some 6.1 times higher for the core regions of the clouds than for the envelopes, indicating a strong association of FIR sources and Bok globules. Of a sample of 97 of the clouds observed in the J = 2-1 line of (C-12)O, 70 percent have cold gas kinetic temperatures and approximately sonic line widths. The remaining 30 percent are about equally divided between those clouds likely to be radiatively heated by nearby stars and those undergoing active protostellar collapse or outflows with no bulk gas heating.

Clemens, Dan P.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Quantiles, parametric-select density estimation, and bi-information parameter estimators

A quantile-based approach to statistical analysis and probability modeling of data is presented which formulates statistical inference problems as functional inference problems in which the parameters to be estimated are density functions. Density estimators can be non-parametric (computed independently of model identified) or parametric-select (approximated by finite parametric models that can provide standard models whose fit can be tested). Exponential models and autoregressive models are approximating densities which can be justified as maximum entropy for respectively the entropy of a probability density and the entropy of a quantile density. Applications of these ideas are outlined to the problems of modeling: (1) univariate data; (2) bivariate data and tests for independence; and (3) two samples and likelihood ratios. It is proposed that bi-information estimation of a density function can be developed by analogy to the problem of identification of regression models.

Parzen, E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Weather Avoidance Guidelines for NASA Global Hawk High-Altitude Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

The current Global Hawk flight rules would probably not have been effective in the single event of greatest concern (the Emily encounter). The cloud top had not reached 50,000 ft until minutes before the encounter. The TOT and lightning data would not have been available until near the overflight time since this was a rapidly growing cell. This case would have required a last‐minute diversion when lightning became frequent. Avoiding such a cell probably requires continual monitoring of the forward camera and storm scope, whether or not cloud tops have been exceeding specific limits. However, the current overflight rules as strictly interpreted would have prohibited significant fractions of the successful Global Hawk overpasses of Karl and Matthew that proved not to be hazardous. Many other high altitude aircraft (ER‐2 and Global Hawk) flights in NASA tropical cyclone field programs have successfully overflown deep convective clouds without incident.The convective cell that caused serious concern about the safety of the ER‐2 in Emily was especially strong for a tropical cyclone environment, probably as strong or stronger than any that was overflown by the ER‐2 in 20 previous flights over tropical cyclones. Specifically, what made that cell a safety concern was the magnitude of the vertical velocity of the updraft, at least 20 m/s (4000 ft/minute) at the time the ER‐2 overflew it. Such a strong updraft can generate strong gravity waves at and above the tropopause, posing a potential danger to aircraft far above the maximum altitude of the updraft itself or its associated cloud top. Indeed, the ER‐2 was probably at least 9000 ft above that cloud top. Cloud‐top height, by itself, is not an especially good indicator of the intensity of convection and the likelihood of turbulence. Nor is overflying high cloud tops (i.e. > 50,000 ft) of particular concern unless there is other evidence of very strong convective updrafts beneath those tops in the path of the aircraft. center dot Lightning, especially lightning with a high flash rate, is well correlated with convective intensity. Lightning with a minimal flash rate (say 1‐3 flashes per minute) is indicative of updraft speeds of about 10 m/s in the mixed phase region where charge is being separated, generally at altitudes about 20‐25 kft in a hurricane. That is still stronger than typical updrafts (more like 5 m/s). An unresolved issue is whether there is a high and instantaneous correlation between vertical velocity in the middle troposphere (necessary for lightning generation) and near cloud top (more direct concern for overflights).

Cecil, Daniel J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing electrical demand and load diversity of low-power water and space heating appliances in US homes

Home renovation and remodeling projects can involve costly and time consuming electrical infrastructure upgrades at the household level. From the grid perspective they also lead to costly replacement of local infrastructure, such as transformers, and can add stress to the grid at peak times. The emergence of innovative, power-efficient household appliances offers a way to minimize these problems. These appliances are designed for lower power consumption, simplifying installation through standard plug-in connections, reducing the need for new electric circuits/panels/service, and minimizing the peak power demand for the home. Key examples include low-power heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) and cold climate window heat pumps that operate on standard 120V outlets. To assess the real-world impact of these solutions, we compiled and analyzed power metering data from several US field studies. This data provides insights into the effects on peak power demand of selecting lower-power appliances. Our analysis focuses on several key metrics, including the maximum power demand of individual appliances, their operational runtime, continuous operation and load diversity. While individual low-power 120V space and water heating appliances offer significant peak demand reductions compared to 240V heat pump or resistance alternatives, their longer runtimes might increase the likelihood of operation during whole-dwelling peak events, albeit at lower power levels.

Less, Brennan↗
NASA NTRS2000

Maxium-Likelihood Template Matching

In image matching applications such as tracking and stereo matching, it is common to use the sum-of-squared-differences (SSD) measure to determine the best match for an image template.

maximum-likeihood estimation template matching obj↗
NASA NTRS2009

Determination of Time Required for Materials Exposed to Oxygen to Return to Reduced Flammability

Increased material flammability due to exposure to high oxygen concentrations is a concern from both a safety and operational perspective. Localized, high oxygen concentrations can occur when exiting a higher oxygen concentration environment due to material saturation, as well as oxygen entrapment between barrier materials. Understanding of oxygen diffusion and permeation and its correlation to flammability risks can reduce the likelihood of fires while improving procedures as NASA moves to longer missions with increased extravehicular activities in both spacecraft and off-Earth habitats. This paper examines the time required for common spacecraft materials exposed to oxygen to return to reduced flammability after removal from the increased oxygen concentration environment. Specifically, NASA-STD-6001A maximum oxygen concentration testing and ASTM F-1927 permeability testing were performed on Nomex 4 HT90-40, Tiburon 5 Surgical Drape, Cotton, Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) Liquid-Cooled Ventilation Garment, EMU Thermal Comfort Undergarment, EMU Mosite Foam with Spandex Covering, Advanced Crew Escape Suit (ACES) Outer Cross-section, ACES Liquid Cooled Garment (LCG), ACES O2 Hose Material, Minicel 6 Polyethylene Foam, Minicel Polyethylene Foam with Nomex Covering, Pyrell Polyurethane Foam, and Zotek 7 F-30 Foam.

Harper, Susana↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Effect of Lightning NOx Production on Surface Ozone in the Continental United States

Lightning NO(x) emissions calculated using the US National Lightning Detection Network data were found to account for 30% of the total NO(x) emissions for July August 2004, a period chosen both for having higher lightning NO(x) production and high ozone levels, thus maximizing the likelihood that such emissions could impact peak ozone levels. Including such emissions led to modest, but sometimes significant increases in simulated surface ozone when using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). Three model simulations were performed, two with the addition of lightning NO(x) emissions, and one without. Domain-wide daily maximum 8-h ozone changes due to lightning NO(x) were less than 2 ppbv in 71 % of the cases with a maximum of 10 ppbv; whereas the difference in 1-h ozone was less than 2 ppbv in 77% of the cases with a maximum of 6 ppbv. Daily maximum 1-h and 8-h ozone for grids containing O3 monitoring stations changed slightly, with more than 43% of the cases differing less than 2 ppbv. The greatest differences were 42 ppbv for both 1-h and 8-h O3 , though these tended to be on days of lower ozone. Lightning impacts on the season-wide maximum 1-h and 8-h averaged ozone decreased starting from the 1 st to 4th highest values (an average of 4th highest, 8-h values is used for attainment demonstration in the US). Background ozone values from the y-intercept of O3 versus NO(z) curve were 42.2 and 43.9 ppbv for simulations without and with lightning emissions, respectively. Results from both simulations with lightning NO(x) suggest that while North American lightning production of NO(x) can lead to significant local impacts on a few occasions, they will have a relatively small impact on typical maximum levels and determination of Policy Relevant Background levels.

Kaynak, B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Cracking characteristics of a habitable module pressure wall following orbital debris penetration

All long-duration spacecraft in low-earth-orbit are subject to high speed impacts by meteoroids and pieces of orbital debris. The threat of damage from such impacts is a significant design consideration in the development of long duration earth-orbiting spacecraft. This report presents the results of a study whose objective was to develop an empirical model to predict the magnitude of the various cracking and through-hole creation phenomena accompanying a habitable module penetration. The significance of the work performed is that the model predictions can be fed directly into a survivability analysis to determine whether or not module unzipping would occur under a specific set of impact conditions. The likelihood of module unzipping over a structure's lifetime can also be determined in such an analysis. In addition, effective hole size predictions can be used as part of a survivability analysis to determine the time available for module evacuation prior to the onset of incapacitation due to air loss. Some of the phenomena considered include maximum petal length, maximum tip-to-tip crack distance, depth of petal deformation, number of cracks formed, orientation of the maximum tip-to-tip distance with respect to the inner wall grain direction, and the effective inner wall hole diameter.

Schonberg, William P.↗