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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

On the Dependence of Simulated Convection on Domain Size in CRMs

Abstract We present a heuristic model to explain the suppression of deep convection in convection‐resolving models (CRMs) with a small number of grid columns, such as those used in super‐parameterized or multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) general circulation models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Domains with few grid columns require greater instability to sustain convection because they force a large convective fraction, driving strong compensating subsidence warming. Updraft dilution, which is stronger for reduced horizontal grid spacing, enhances this effect. Thus, suppression of deep convection in CRMs with few grid columns can be reduced by increasing grid spacing. Radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations using standalone CRM simulations with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) and using GCM‐coupled CRM simulations with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)‐MMF confirm the heuristic model results.

CRM↗

Observations suggest that North African dust absorbs less solar radiation than models estimate

Abstract Desert dust accounts for a large fraction of shortwave radiation absorbed by aerosols, which adds to the climate warming produced by greenhouse gases. However, it remains uncertain exactly how much shortwave radiation dust absorbs. Here, we leverage in-situ measurements of dust single-scattering albedo to constrain absorption at mid-visible wavelength by North African dust, which accounts for approximately half of the global dust. We find that climate and chemical transport models overestimate North African dust absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) by up to a factor of two. This occurs primarily because models overestimate the dust imaginary refractive index, the effect of which is partially masked by an underestimation of large dust particles. Similar factors might contribute to an overestimation of AAOD retrieved by the Aerosol Robotic Network, which is commonly used to evaluate climate and chemical transport models. The overestimation of dust absorption by models could lead to substantial biases in simulated dust impacts on the Earth system, including warm biases in dust radiative effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a predictive capability of short-pulse laser-driven broadband x-ray radiography

High intensity, short-pulse laser interaction with a solid metal target produces broadband hard x-rays potentially for various applications of x-ray radiography. In this work, experimental benchmarking of numerical modelling for short-pulse laser-driven broadband x-ray radiography is presented. Angular dependent x-ray spectra are first calculated with a hybrid particle-in-cell code, Large Scale Plasma (LSP), using fast electron parameters inferred from an analysis of measured bremsstrahlung signals. Subsequently, a calculated x-ray spectrum in the direction of radiography is used in photon transport calculations using a Monte Carlo code, Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS), to simulate a radiographic image including a modelled 3D test object, an x-ray attenuation filter and an image plate detector. Simulated radiographic images are compared with measurements obtained in an experiment using a 50-TW Leopard short-pulse laser at the University of Nevada Reno. Results show that simulations reproduce the experimental images well for three different attenuation filters (plastic, aluminium, and brass), while 1D transmission profiles for the plastic and aluminium filters are quantitatively in good agreement. The modelling approach established in this work could be used as a predictive tool to simulate radiographic images of complex 3D solid objects at any arbitrary angular position or to optimize experimental components such as the source spectrum, x-ray attenuation filters and a detector type depending on a radiographic object without carrying out radiographic experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Kinetic simulations of collision-less plasmas in open magnetic geometries

Laboratory plasmas in open magnetic geometries can be found in many different applications such as (a) scrape-of-layer (SOL) and divertor regions in toroidal confinement fusion devices, (b) linear divertor simulators, (c) plasma-based thrusters and (d) magnetic mirrors etc. A common feature of these plasma systems is the need to resolve, in addition to velocity space, at least one physical dimension (e.g. along flux lines) to capture the relevant physics. In general, this requires a kinetic treatment. Fully kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations can be applied but at the expense of large computational effort. A common way to resolve this is to use a hybrid approach: kinetic ions and fluid electrons. In the present work, the development of a hybrid PIC computational tool suitable for open magnetic geometries is described which includes (a) the effect of non-uniform magnetic fields, (b) finite fully-absorbing boundaries for the particles and (c) volumetric particle sources. Analytical expressions for the momentum transport in the paraxial limit are presented with their underlying assumptions and are used to validate the results from the PIC simulations. A general method is described to construct discrete particle distribution functions in a state of mirror-equilibrium. This method is used to obtain the initial state for the PIC simulation. Collisionless simulations in a mirror geometry are performed. The results show that the effect of magnetic compression is correctly described and momentum is conserved. The self-consistent electric field is calculated and is shown to modify the ion velocity distribution function in a manner consistent with analytic theory. Based on this analysis, the ion distribution function is understood in terms of a loss-cone distribution and an isotropic Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution driven by a volumetric plasma source. Finally, the inclusion of a Monte Carlo based Fokker-Planck collision operator is discussed in the context of future work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantum simulation of boson-related Hamiltonians: techniques, effective Hamiltonian construction, and error analysis

Elementary quantum mechanics proposes that a closed physical system consistently evolves in a reversible manner. However, control and readout necessitate the coupling of the quantum system to the external environment, subjecting it to relaxation and decoherence. Consequently, system-environment interactions are indispensable for simulating physically significant theories. A broad spectrum of physical systems in condensed-matter and high-energy physics, vibrational spectroscopy, and circuit and cavity QED necessitates the incorporation of bosonic degrees of freedom, such as phonons, photons, and gluons, into optimized fermion algorithms for near-future quantum simulations. In particular, when a quantum system is surrounded by an external environment, its basic physics can usually be simplified to a spin or fermionic system interacting with bosonic modes. Nevertheless, troublesome factors such as the magnitude of the bosonic degrees of freedom typically complicate the direct quantum simulation of these interacting models, necessitating the consideration of a comprehensive plan. This strategy should specifically include a suitable fermion/boson-to-qubit mapping scheme to encode sufficiently large yet manageable bosonic modes, and a method for truncating and/or downfolding the Hamiltonian to the defined subspace for performing an approximate but highly accurate simulation, guided by rigorous error analysis. In this pedagogical tutorial review, we aim to provide such an exhaustive strategy, focusing on encoding and simulating certain bosonic-related model Hamiltonians, inclusive of their static properties and time evolutions. Specifically, we emphasize two aspects: (1) the discussion of recently developed quantum algorithms for these interacting models and the construction of effective Hamiltonians, and (2) a detailed analysis regarding a tightened error bound for truncating the bosonic modes for a class of fermion-boson interacting Hamiltonians.

bosonic Hamiltonian↗

Dark Matter Velocity Distributions for Direct Detection: Astrophysical Uncertainties Are Smaller Than They Appear

The sensitivity of direct detection experiments depends on the phase-space distribution of dark matter near the Sun, which can be modeled theoretically using cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of Milky Way–like galaxies. However, capturing the halo-to-halo variation in the local dark matter speeds—a necessary step for quantifying the astrophysical uncertainties that feed into experimental results—requires a sufficiently large sample of simulated galaxies, which has been a challenge. In this Letter, we quantify this variation with nearly 100 Milky Way–like galaxies from the tng50 simulation, the largest sample to date at this resolution. Moreover, we introduce a novel phase-space scaling procedure that endows every system with a reference frame that accurately reproduces the local standard-of-rest speed of our Galaxy, providing a principled way of extrapolating the simulation results to real-world data. The ensemble of predicted speed distributions is well characterized by the standard halo model, a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution truncated at the escape speed, though the individual distributions can deviate from it, especially at high speeds. The dark matter–nucleon cross section limits placed by these speed distributions vary by ∼ 60% about the median. This places the 1⁢𝜎 astrophysical uncertainty at or below the level of the systematic uncertainty of current ton-scale detectors, even down to the energy threshold. The predicted uncertainty remains unchanged when subselecting on those TNG 50 galaxies with merger histories similar to the Milky Way. Tabulated speed distributions, as well as Maxwell-Boltzmann fits, are provided for use in computing direct detection bounds or projecting sensitivities.

Milky Way↗

Tuning anisotropic bonding via chemistry and pressure in layered pnictides and chalcogenides (Final Report)

The overarching goal of this research program, as originally delineated in the proposal “Tuning anisotropic bonding via chemistry and pressure in layered pnictides and chalcogenides” was to develop a predictive, chemistry-driven understanding of the impact of the phonon behavior on thermal properties of bulk layered materials. At finite temperatures, atomic vibrations (phonons) strongly impact the thermodynamics, thermal and electrical transport, and phase-switching properties of functional materials. In particular, soft phonon modes and strongly anharmonic potentials can have spectacular consequences, including structural phase transitions (for example in ferroelectrics and phase-change memory materials), metal-insulator transitions, and extreme thermal resistance preventing heat propagation. Bulk materials with highly-anisotropic bonding may provide unique strategies to induce soft-phonon modes and lattice instabilities. Recently, increasingly detailed investigations of the lattice dynamics in layered materials have been made possible by the advent of first-principles phonon calculations and advanced characterization techniques based on neutron and X-ray scattering. However, due to the lack of studies in which composition and bonding character are systematically varied, there are still fundamental questions regarding the impacts of anisotropic bonding and anharmonicity on lattice stability and thermal transport. One of the major goals of this research program is therefore to address this gap by coherently tuning bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity across families of related compounds. Such approaches have revealed new strategies for exploiting structural anisotropy in quasi-1D and 2D bulk materials to obtain tailored functional properties. This project systematically explored the lattice dynamics, phase stability, and transport properties in bulk layered materials by using both composition and applied pressure to tune the degree of bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity. To accomplish this work, we combined i) single-crystal growth of key material systems with tunable anisotropy, ii) in-situ high-temperature/high-pressure characterization of structure and phonons to probe bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity, including state-of-the-art inelastic X-ray scattering (IXS) and inelastic neutron scattering (INS), and iii) first-principles simulations leveraging large-scale computing to identify the fundamental origins of the observed effects, by relating atomic structure and dynamics to electronic orbital interactions. Finally, we modeled and verified the impact of the phonon behavior on thermal transport to identify new strategies for a-priori design of thermal conductivity. Our integrated collaborative approach helped to systematically unravel the effects of anisotropy and bonding anharmonicity on phonon transport, thermodynamics, and thermal properties of complex anisotropic materials.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Tuning anisotropic bonding via chemistry and pressure in layered pnictides and chalcogenides. Final Report

The overarching goal of this research program, as originally delineated in the proposal “Tuning anisotropic bonding via chemistry and pressure in layered pnictides and chalcogenides” was to develop a predictive, chemistry-driven understanding of the impact of the phonon behavior on thermal properties of bulk layered materials. At finite temperatures, atomic vibrations (phonons) strongly impact the thermodynamics, thermal and electrical transport, and phase-switching properties of functional materials. In particular, soft phonon modes and strongly anharmonic potentials can have spectacular consequences, including structural phase transitions (for example in ferroelectrics and phase-change memory materials), metal-insulator transitions, and extreme thermal resistance preventing heat propagation. Bulk materials with highly-anisotropic bonding may provide unique strategies to induce soft-phonon modes and lattice instabilities. Recently, increasingly detailed investigations of the lattice dynamics in layered materials have been made possible by the advent of first-principles phonon calculations and advanced characterization techniques based on neutron and X-ray scattering. However, due to the lack of studies in which composition and bonding character are systematically varied, there are still fundamental questions regarding the impacts of anisotropic bonding and anharmonicity on lattice stability and thermal transport. One of the major goals of this research program is therefore to address this gap by coherently tuning bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity across families of related compounds. Such approaches have revealed new strategies for exploiting structural anisotropy in quasi-1D and 2D bulk materials to obtain tailored functional properties. This project systematically explored the lattice dynamics, phase stability, and transport properties in bulk layered materials by using both composition and applied pressure to tune the degree of bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity. To accomplish this work, we combined i) single-crystal growth of key material systems with tunable anisotropy, ii) in-situ high-temperature/high-pressure characterization of structure and phonons to probe bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity, including state-of-the-art inelastic X-ray scattering (IXS) and inelastic neutron scattering (INS), and iii) first-principles simulations leveraging large-scale computing to identify the fundamental origins of the observed effects, by relating atomic structure and dynamics to electronic orbital interactions. Finally, we modeled and verified the impact of the phonon behavior on thermal transport to identify new strategies for a-priori design of thermal conductivity. Our integrated collaborative approach helped to systematically unravel the effects of anisotropy and bonding anharmonicity on phonon transport, thermodynamics, and thermal properties of complex anisotropic materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An RTDS-Based Testbed for Investigating the Impacts of Transmission-Level Disturbances on Solar PV Operation

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources such as solar and wind via power electronic inverters is challenging grid dynamics, as well as grid planning, operation, and protection. Recently, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has reported a series of similar events of the unintended loss of solar generation in Southern California over a large geographic area following the transmission-level disturbances. These events highlight the importance of understanding the characteristics of the transmission-side disturbances propagating into the distribution systems and their impacts on the operation of inverter-based resources. In this paper, a real-time electromagnetic simulation testbed is constructed for real-time electromagnetic simulations to generate realistic transmission-level disturbances and investigate their impacts on the solar PV operation under different fault types and locations, solar penetration levels, and loading levels. Through the simulation analysis and grid strength assessment, it is found that the grid strength at points of integration (POIs) of solar PVs significantly affects the transient stability of solar generators. Particularly, undesirable transient stability events are more likely to occur at the weak POIs following the transmission-level disturbances. Moreover, undesirable transient stability events become severer when the transmission-level disturbance is closer to the weak POIs or the disturbances become more serious. Additionally, the impact of the transmission-level disturbances on the solar PVs at the weak POIs exacerbate with the increasing solar penetration levels and loading levels. Thus, it is important to study and develop new technologies for grid planning, operation, and protection in weak grid conditions to address the emerging issues of integrating the high penetration of solar PVs and other IBRs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ground heat exchanger design tool with rowwise placement of boreholes

Simulation-based design tools have been used since the late 1980s for designing ground heat exchangers (GHE) used with ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems. The ground heat exchanger simulations used in these tools rely on thermal response functions known as g-functions. Because of the significant computational burden in computing g-functions for even a single configuration, the design tools have relied on libraries of pre-computed g-functions. These g-functions were available for standard configuration shapes, such as lines, rectangles, open rectangles, L-shapes, and U-shapes. Standard shapes are often sub-optimal. For any building on a site, the available land may preclude use of a standard shape. For large GSHP systems with significantly imbalanced annual heat rejection and extraction loads, large rectangular fields may experience significant heat build-up (or heat draw-down) in the interior of the field. This paper describes a new ground heat exchanger design tool capable of automatically selecting and sizing both standard and irregular configurations. The focus of this paper is a method for creating, selecting and sizing irregular configurations where the available land area and "no-go" zones are described as irregular polygons.

Spitler, Jeffery↗

Evaluating Methods for Measuring Grid Frequency in Low-Inertia Power Systems: Preprint

Accurate measurement of grid frequency is a critical component of reliable grid control. Traditionally, methods such as phase locked loops (PLLs) and discrete Fourier transforms (DFTs) have been used in inverters and phasor measurement units (PMUs) to measure frequency. However, as the percentage of inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar and wind has increased, these conventional frequency measurement methods are proving unable to guarantee reliable control in some cases. One challenge is measuring frequency during transient events, where there is a disruption in the steady state sinusoidal voltage. During these events, the underlying frequency of the grid may barely change, but measurement methods report a large spike in frequency due to the disrupted waveform. New methods must balance between suppressing spikes in frequency during faults, and providing fast, accurate, measurements in all other grid operation conditions, especially during events with high rate-of-change-of frequency (ROCOF), which are more prevalent in high-IBR power systems. This paper first surveys frequency measurement methods that have been proposed to reduce measurement errors during transient events. Then, both conventional and more novel frequency measurement methods are tested against an IEEE standard and industry recommendations, and their performance is evaluated for events simulated in PSCAD. Results quantify the trade-offs in performance during different grid conditions and lead to suggestions for the most appropriate frequency and ROCOF measurement methods for low inertia grids.

frequency↗

Ground and excited state gradients with end-to-end differentiable semiempirical quantum chemistry

Accurate and efficient gradients of molecular energy with respect to nuclear degrees of freedom are essential for geometry optimization and molecular dynamics, including simulations that go beyond the Born–Oppenheimer regime. A common approach involves deriving analytical formulas for new electronic structure methods, which is often conceptually difficult and requires tedious coding. Here, we implement analytical, semi-numerical, and automatic differentiation (AD)-based gradient pathways for semiempirical Hamiltonian models in the PYSEQM software package, leveraging both graphics processing unit (GPU) and central processing unit (CPU) architectures. We further extend these capabilities to excited states calculated using the configuration interaction singles and time-dependent Hartree–Fock ansätze. We benchmark wall time, peak memory usage, and accuracy across three molecular families of varying chemical complexity, including systems of up to a thousand atoms. For ground-state simulations, analytical and AD gradients achieve near-identical GPU runtimes, while semi-numerical gradients are slower on GPU but remain competitive on CPU. For excited states, both analytical and custom AD approaches using implicit differentiation show similar performance and low memory requirements, whereas gradients with full AD are memory-limited. AD gradients match analytical ones in accuracy across all tested systems, aided by a quaternion-based diatomic frame rotation for two-center quantities that ensures smooth energy surfaces. Overall, automatic differentiation emerges as a practical alternative to analytical gradients in semiempirical quantum chemistry, offering high accuracy while allowing seamless integration in AI-driven workflows and popular packages, such as PyTorch and JAX. Our results provide actionable guidance for selecting optimal gradient strategies in large-scale ground- and excited-state molecular dynamics simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Towards exascale for wind energy simulations

We examine large-eddy-simulation modeling approaches and computational performance of two open-source computational fluid dynamics codes for the simulation of atmospheric boundary layer flows that are of direct relevance to wind energy production. The first code, NekRS, is a high-order, unstructured-grid, spectral element code. The second code, AMR-Wind, is a second-order, block-structured, finite-volume code with adaptive mesh refinement capabilities. The objective of this study is to co-develop these codes in order to improve model fidelity and performance for each. These features will be critical for running ABL-based applications such as wind farm analysis on advanced computing architectures. To this end, we investigate the performance of NekRS and AMR-Wind on the Oak Ridge Leadership Facility supercomputers Summit, using 4 to 800 nodes (24 to 4,800 NVIDIA V100 GPUs), and Crusher, the testbed for the Frontier exascale system, using 18 to 384 Graphics Compute Dies on AMD MI250X GPUs. We compare strong- and weak-scaling capabilities, linear solver performance, and time to solution. We also identify leading inhibitors to parallel scaling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Edge and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2017-2019) [and subsequently titled] Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Interior and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2019-2022) (Final Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the DOE Measurement Innovation grant DE-SC0017998 titled Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Edge and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2017-2019) and subsequently titled Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Interior and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2019-2022). The grant was funded by the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) for the period 1 September 2017 – 31 May 2022. Work performed through the grant has resulted in diagnostic innovations and new measurement capabilities that could improve understanding of magnetic equilibrium, edge localized modes in tokamaks, and bootstrap and Pfirsch-Schlüter currents in stellarators. We have performed simulations of a novel non-hydrogen beam-based diagnostic that would determine a local value (in the plasma) of the poloidal flux function by measuring the toroidal angle of the beam particles' velocity at a detector external to the plasma. The approach is similar to that of a Heavy Ion Beam Probe (HIBP), but would be able to operate with a smaller, more economical detection systems and, in doing so, may enable substantial extension of scenarios in which beam-based diagnostics are deployed. Key results include: Identification of the neutral and singly charged atoms that are most appropriate for use in the beam based diagnostic and the ionization cross-sections that are important for studying the plasma edge of a large device; Development of a promising geometry for operation in which the beam is injected horizontally near the torus midplane; Implementation of simulations using banana orbit trajectories of secondary beam ions to access plasma regions that are commonly in-accessible to an HIBP diagnostic, including sample volumes near the X-point of a diverted tokamak; Assessment of the ability of the diagnostic concept (originally developed under the assumption of, and reliant on, symmetry) to work in stellarators by performing simulations with both quasi-symmetric fields and non-quasi-symmetric fields; Measurement of noise levels with a prototype detector on a stellarator and exploration of techniques to minimize effects of noise on a diagnostic.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A FETI approach to domain decomposition for meshfree discretizations of nonlocal problems

We propose a domain decomposition method for the efficient simulation of nonlocal problems. Our approach is based on a multi-domain formulation of a nonlocal diffusion problem where the subdomains share “nonlocal” interfaces of the size of the nonlocal horizon. This system of nonlocal equations is first rewritten in terms of minimization of a nonlocal energy, then discretized with a meshfree approximation and finally solved via a Lagrange multiplier approach in a way that resembles the finite element tearing and interconnect method. Specifically, we propose a distributed projected gradient algorithm for the solution of the Lagrange multiplier system, whose unknowns determine the nonlocal interface conditions between subdomains. Several two-dimensional numerical tests on problems as large as 191 million unknowns illustrate the strong and the weak scalability of our algorithm, which outperforms the standard approach to the distributed numerical solution of the problem. Finally, this work is the first rigorous numerical study in a two-dimensional multi-domain setting for nonlocal operators with finite horizon and, as such, it is a fundamental step towards increasing the use of nonlocal models in large scale simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Bubble Mass Transport Measurement in the Large-Scale Test Loops at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Molten salts are complex fluids that incorporate multi-phase behavior depending on the chemistry and the physical properties of the entrained components. These components include the carrier salt, the actinide fuel, and fission, activation, and corrosion products, the concentrations of which depends on the burnup history of the salt. Radionuclide transport from the salt into the cover gas / off-gas system depends on volatility as predicted by thermochemistry, but data from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) conducted in the late 1960s suggest that bubble formation and transport are also important. Anomalously high fractions of noble metals were found in the off-gas system and were attributed to transportation with parent salt aerosols and their association with rising noble gas bubbles. The prediction of such phenomena requires coupled neutronic, thermal hydraulic, and chemical equilibrium calculations, the framework of which is being developed within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program supported by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). However, separate effects tests and models of experiments using tools such as SAM and Thermochimica can guide model developers through important processes. Conversely, model development guides the choice of experiments and systems to provide data that are relevant for validation. This report describes several experiments that tracked gas transport in molten salts, ranging from small-scale systems to large-scale loops. Gas transportation in a molten salt, LiCl-KCl, has been studied using the shadowgraph technique. Sensors such as residual gas analysis, Raman spectroscopy, and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy have been tested for off-gas measurements. These data were used to interpret how the gases move through the upstream salt / cover gas and the interface between them. Differential pressure measurements were able to detect individual gas bubbles as they popped at the liquid–gas interface. Salt aerosols were collected on a cascade impactor. Their formation was also observed directly via the shadowgraph method, and most of these aerosols were launched ballistically into the cover gas. Fine mists could also be observed. Convection currents through the salt were visualized and can be used to calculate the thermophysical properties of the salt itself. The apparatuses described in this report and in a previous work (McFarlane et al. 2023) have been commissioned and are available for use in making further measurements of salt/surrogate fission product behavior. Novel approaches using neutron imaging are planned for the study of fluoride salts, which cannot be contained in quartz, so shadowgraph visualization is not available. Bubble transport in convective flow and in a slow-moving salt column are planned. The mobile laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) system is available for several applications, including iodine capture in a molten hydroxide scrubber, H2 transport though molten salts to complement Raman analysis, and online tracking of salt aerosol generation, transport, and deposition. This report summarizes the findings from FY24 and the plans for FY25. The work completes milestone M2AT-24OR0702013 of the DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Technology, Molten Salt Reactor Campaign, DOE-NE-5.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗