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DOE OSTI2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We analyze the properties of satellite galaxies around 1024 Milky Way–mass hosts from the DREAMS Project, simulated within a ΛCDM cosmology. Utilizing the TNG galaxy-formation model, the DREAMS simulations incorporate both baryonic physics and cosmological uncertainties for a large sample of galaxies with diverse environments and formation histories. We investigate the relative impact of the physical uncertainty from the galaxy-formation model on predicted satellite properties using four metrics: the satellite stellar mass function, radial distribution, inner slope of the dark matter density profile, and stellar half-light radius. We compare these predictions to observations from the SAGA survey and the DREAMS N-body simulations and find that uncertainties from baryonic physics modeling are subdominant to the scatter arising from halo-to-halo variance. Where baryonic modeling does affect satellites, the supernova wind energy has the largest effect on the satellite properties that we investigate. Specifically, increased supernova wind energy suppresses the stellar mass of satellites and results in more extended stellar half-light radii. The adopted wind speed has only a minor impact, and other astrophysical and cosmological parameters show no measurable effect. Our findings highlight the robustness of satellite properties against uncertainties in baryonic physics modeling.

Rose, Jonah C. [Princeton University, NJ (United S↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Observing Strategy on Cosmological Constraints with LSST

The generation-defining Vera C. Rubin Observatory will make state-of-the-art measurements of both the static and transient universe through its Legacy Survey for Space and Time (LSST). With such capabilities, it is immensely challenging to optimize the LSST observing strategy across the survey's wide range of science drivers. Many aspects of the LSST observing strategy relevant to the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration, such as survey footprint definition, single-visit exposure time, and the cadence of repeat visits in different filters, are yet to be finalized. Here, we present metrics used to assess the impact of observing strategy on the cosmological probes considered most sensitive to survey design; these are large-scale structure, weak lensing, type Ia supernovae, kilonovae, and strong lens systems (as well as photometric redshifts, which enable many of these probes). We evaluate these metrics for over 100 different simulated potential survey designs. Our results show that multiple observing strategy decisions can profoundly impact cosmological constraints with LSST; these include adjusting the survey footprint, ensuring repeat nightly visits are taken in different filters, and enforcing regular cadence. We provide public code for our metrics, which makes them readily available for evaluating further modifications to the survey design. We conclude with a set of recommendations and highlight observing strategy factors that require further research.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Rubin Observatory Cadence Choices on Supernovae Photometric Classification

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will discover an unprecedented number of supernovae (SNe), making spectroscopic classification for all the events infeasible. LSST will thus rely on photometric classification, whose accuracy depends on the not-yet-finalized LSST observing strategy. In this work, we analyze the impact of cadence choices on classification performance using simulated multiband light curves. First, we simulate SNe with an LSST baseline cadence, a nonrolling cadence, and a presto-color cadence, which observes each sky location three times per night instead of twice. Each simulated data set includes a spectroscopically confirmed training set, which we augment to be representative of the test set as part of the classification pipeline. Then we use the photometric transient classification library snmachine to build classifiers. We find that the active region of the rolling cadence used in the baseline observing strategy yields a 25% improvement in classification performance relative to the background region. This improvement in performance in the actively rolling region is also associated with an increase of up to a factor of 2.7 in the number of cosmologically useful Type Ia SNe relative to the background region. However, adding a third visit per night as implemented in presto-color degrades classification performance due to more irregularly sampled light curves. Overall, our results establish desiderata on the observing cadence related to classification of full SNe light curves, which in turn impacts photometric SNe cosmology with LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying the Impact of LSST u -band Survey Strategy on Photometric Redshift Estimation and the Detection of Lyman-break Galaxies

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will conduct the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), promising to discover billions of galaxies out to redshift 7, using six photometric bands (ugrizy) spanning the near-ultraviolet to the near-infrared. The exact number of and quality of information about these galaxies will depend on survey depth in these six bands, which in turn depends on the LSST survey strategy, i.e., how often and how long to expose in each band. u-band depth is especially important for photometric redshift (photo-z) estimation and for detection of high-redshift Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs). In this paper, we use a simulated galaxy catalog and an analytic model for the LBG population to study how recent updates and proposed changes to Rubin’s u-band throughput and LSST survey strategy impact photo-z accuracy and LBG detection. We find that proposed variations in u-band strategy have a small impact on photo-z accuracy for z < 1.5 galaxies, but the outlier fraction, scatter, and bias for higher-redshift galaxies vary by up to 50%, depending on the survey strategy considered. The number of u-band dropout LBGs at z ∼ 3 is also highly sensitive to the u-band depth, varying by up to 500%, while the number of griz-band dropouts is only modestly affected. Under the new u-band strategy recommended by the Rubin Survey Cadence Optimization Committee, we predict u-band dropout number densities of 110 deg −2 (3200 deg −2 ) in year 1 (10) of LSST. We discuss the implications of these results for LSST cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

“CY1” Chondrites Produced by Impact Dehydration of the CI Chondrite Parent Body

The recently proposed Yamato-type (CY) chondrites share significant similarities with CI chondrites and Ryugu. We present major and trace elemental, Re–Os, and mass-independent Ti, Cr, and Fe isotope data for seven CY chondrites. The elemental data along with isotopic compositions reveal two distinct lithologies, here designated as CY1 and CY2, potentially originating from two different parent bodies. Although sharing similarities with CM chondrites, CY2 chondrites have distinct Cr isotope compositions, arguing against a close genetic relationship. The CY1 lithology exhibits elemental abundances similar to CI chondrites/Ryugu as well as Fe, Ti, and Cr isotope compositions that closely overlap with those of CI chondrites/Ryugu. This suggests that CI chondrites, CY1 chondrites, and Ryugu accreted in the same region of the solar system and may even originate from the same parent body. In fact, we find that the reduced water content and certain volatile element abundances alongside increased sulfide content and mass-dependent O isotope enrichments observed in CY1 compared to CI chondrites could be attributed to an impact-induced heating event on the CI parent body. This impact likely disrupted the CI parent body, resulting in the ejection of both CI and CY1 lithologies. Furthermore, given that there are presently only five known CI meteorite specimens, the close chemical composition between CY1 and CI chondrites substantially expands the data set for comparisons and referrals to the bulk solar system composition for nonvolatile elements. Finally, we propose that the “CY1” chondrites could be called “CI1T,” while the designation “CY” chondrites could be restricted to “CY2” samples.

Zhu, Ke 朱柯 [China University of Geosciences (Wuhan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Did Earth Eat Its Leftovers? Impact Ejecta as a Component of the Late Veneer

The presence of highly siderophile elements in Earth's mantle indicates that a small percentage of Earth's mass was delivered after the last giant impact in a stage of "late accretion." There is ongoing debate about the nature of late-accreted material and the sizes of late-accreted bodies. Earth appears isotopically most similar to enstatite chondrites and achondrites. It has been suggested that late accretion must have been dominated by enstatite-like bodies that originated in the inner disk, rather than ordinary or carbonaceous chondrites. Here we examine the provenances of "leftover" planetesimals present in the inner disk in the late stages of accretion simulations. Dynamically excited planet formation produces planets and embryos with similar provenances, suggesting that the Moon-forming impactor may have had a stable isotope composition very similar to the proto-Earth. Commonly, some planetesimal-sized bodies with similar provenances to the Earth-like planets are left at the end of the main stage of growth. The most chemically similar planetesimals are typically fragments of protoplanets ejected millions of years earlier. If these similar-provenance bodies are later accreted by the planet, they will represent late-accreted mass that naturally matches Earth's composition. The planetesimal-sized bodies that exist during the giant impact phase can have large core mass fractions, with core provenances similar to the proto-Earth. These bodies are an important potential source for highly siderophile elements. The range of core fractions in leftover planetesimals complicates simple inferences as to the mass and origin of late accretion based on the highly siderophile elements in the mantle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Lateral Alignment on the Energy Savings of a Truck Platoon

A truck platooning system was tested using two heavy-duty tractor-trailer trucks on a closed test track to investigate the sensitivity of intentional lateral offsets over a range of intervehicle spacings. The fuel consumption for both trucks in the platoon was measured using the SAE J1321 gravimetric procedure while travelling at 65 mph and loaded to a gross weight of 65,000 lb. In addition, the SAE J1939 instantaneous fuel rate was calibrated against the gravimetric measurements and used as proxy for additional analyses. The testing campaign demonstrated the effects of intervehicle gaps, following-vehicle longitudinal control, and manual lateral control. The new results are compared to previous truck-platooning studies to reinforce the value of the new information and demonstrate similarity to past trends. Fuel savings for the following vehicle was observed to exceed 10% at closer following distances. The results showed that energy savings generally increased in a non-linear fashion as the gap was reduced. The impact of different following-truck lateral offsets had a measurable impact, with up to 4% reduction in total fuel-savings (relative to an isolated vehicle condition) observed for offsets up to 1.3 m. The fuel-consumption savings on the straight segments of the track exceeded those on the curved segments by upwards of 6% and highlight some potential differences expected between close-track testing and on-highway use.

adaptive cruise control↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact to Cooling Airflow from Truck Platooning

We investigate tradeoffs between the airflow strategies related to engine cooling and the aerodynamic-enabled fuel savings created by platooning. By analyzing air temperatures, engine temperatures and cooling air flow at different platoon distances, we show the thermal impact to the engine from truck platooning. Previously, we collected wind and thermal data for numerous heavy-duty truck platoon configurations (gaps ranging from 4 to 87 meters) and reported the significant fuel savings enabled by these configurations. The fuel consumption for all trucks in the platoon were measured using the SAE J1321 gravimetric procedure as well as calibrated J1939 instantaneous fuel rate while travelling at 65 mph and loaded to a gross weight of 65,000 lb. Using thermocouples mounted 1 m ahead of each truck, anemometers at the grill and a grid of under-hood thermocouples as well as J1939 reported engine temperatures, we analyze the impact to critical operating temperatures from different platoon configurations. Results show significant changes in the engine and under-hood air temperatures that correlate with vehicle gap distance and platoon position.

adaptive cruise control (ACC)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Impacts of High-Octane Fuel Introduction in a Naturally Aspirated, Port Fuel-Injected Legacy Vehicle

In recent years there has been an increased interest in raising the octane level of gasoline to enable higher compression ratios (CR) in spark-ignition engines to improve vehicle fuel efficiency. A number of studies have examined opportunities to increase efficiency in future vehicles, but potential impacts on the legacy fleet have not received as much attention. In this study, our effort focused on experimental studies on an engine using high-octane fuels without changing the engine’s CR. Spark timing was advanced until maximum torque was reached or knock was encountered for each engine condition, using each individual fuel to maximize engine efficiency. Knock-limited conditions occurred as the output brake mean effective pressure (BMEP) neared the maximum attainable output at a given engine speed. Increasing research octane numbers generally enabled knock-free operation under a greater number of operating conditions. Vehicle modeling using Autonomie was used to project vehicle energy use, fuel economy, and tailpipe CO 2 emissions for the Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (UDDS), the Highway Fuel Economy Test (HWFET), and the US06 cycle. Results show that decreases in energy consumption of up to 2% for a small SUV are possible through the use of a 97 RON fuel compared to a baseline using 91 RON fuel, provided that the formulation of the fuel does not cause unanticipated operational issues such as lower maximum BMEP. Greater improvements using high-octane fuels are possible if the CR is increased, but there is no opportunity to increase the CR in legacy vehicles. Thus, these vehicles realize an improvement from increased octane rating in accordance with their ability to spark advance to take advantage of a fuel with a higher octane rating. For the modeled vehicle, improvements of up to 2% in volumetric fuel economy may be possible through the use of a 97 RON fuel with the largest gains expected on the US06 cycle. Fuel economy impacts are strongly coupled to the heating value of the fuels in addition to changes in engine efficiency. Similarly, decreases in tailpipe CO 2 emissions are also achievable. However, simultaneous improvements in energy consumption, fuel economy, and tailpipe CO 2 emissions are not guaranteed and are dependent upon fuel formulation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploration of Fuel Property Impacts on the Combustion of Late Post Injections Using Binary Blends and High-Reactivity Ether Bioblendstocks

In this study, the impacts of fuel volatility and reactivity on combustion stability and emissions were studied in a light-duty single-cylinder research engine for a three-injection catalyst heating operation strategy with late post-injections. Here, N-heptane and blends of farnesane/2,2,4,4,6,8,8-heptamethylnonane were used to study the impacts of volatility and reactivity. The effect of increased chemical reactivity was also analysed by comparing the baseline #2 diesel operation with a pure blend of mono-ether components (CN > 100) representative of potential high cetane oxygenated bioblendstocks and a 25 vol.% blend of the mono-ether blend and #2 diesel with a cetane number (CN) of 55. At constant reactivity, little to no variation in combustion performance was observed due to differences in volatility, whereas increased reactivity improved combustion stability and efficiency at late injection timings. Fuels with higher reactivity were found to reduce engine-out hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions while also achieving stable combustion at post-injection timings later than those achievable with #2 diesel fuel. The pure ether blend had the latest achievable post-injection timing of +30.5 CAD while still maintaining stable combustion (coefficient of variation of gross-indicated mean effective pressure < 5%). With post-injection timing adjusted to achieve a matched exhaust temperature of 300 °C, the ether-diesel CN 55 blend was observed to have slightly higher thermal efficiency in comparison to the baseline #2 diesel fuel. The results also indicate that cetane number may serve as a good indicator of combustion characteristics at late injection timings used for aftertreatment thermal management operation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code for: Combining eddy covariance towers, field measurements, and the MEMS 2 ecosystem model improves confidence in the climate impacts of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty.

BECCS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of biomass burning activities on convective systems over the Maritime Continent

Convective precipitation associated with Sumatra squall lines and diurnal rainfall over Borneo is an important weather feature of the Maritime Continent in Southeast Asia. Over the past few decades, biomass burning activities have been widespread during summertime over this region, producing massive fire aerosols. These additional aerosols, when brought into the atmosphere, besides influencing the local radiation budget through directly scattering and absorbing sunlight, can also act as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei to alter convective clouds and precipitation over the Maritime Continent via so-called aerosol indirect effects. Based on 4-month simulations with or without biomass burning aerosols, conducted using theWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry module (WRFChem), we have investigated the aerosol–cloud interactions associated with biomass burning aerosols over the Maritime Continent. Results from selected cases of convective events have specifically shown the significant impact of fire aerosols on weak convections by their increasing of the quantities of hydrometeors and rainfall in both the Sumatra and Borneo regions. Statistical analysis over the fire season also suggests that fire aerosols have impacts on the nocturnal convections associated with the local anticyclonic circulation in western Borneo and weaken nocturnal rainfall intensity by about 9 %. Such an effect is likely to have come from the near-surface heating due to absorbing aerosols emitted from fires, which could weaken land breezes and thus the convergence of anticyclonic circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of cloud microphysics parameterizations on simulated aerosol–cloud interactions for deep convective clouds over Houston

Aerosol–cloud interactions remain largely uncertain with respect to predicting their impacts on weather and climate. Cloud microphysics parameterization is one of the factors leading to large uncertainty. Here, we investigate the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the convective intensity and precipitation of a thunderstorm occurring on 19 June 2013 over Houston with the Chemistry version of Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-Chem) using the Morrison two-moment bulk scheme and spectral bin microphysics (SBM) scheme. We find that the SBM predicts a deep convective cloud that shows better agreement with observations in terms of reflectivity and precipitation compared with the Morrison bulk scheme that has been used in many weather and climate models. With the SBM scheme, we see a significant invigoration effect on convective intensity and precipitation by anthropogenic aerosols, mainly through enhanced condensation latent heating. Such an effect is absent with the Morrison two-moment bulk microphysics, mainly because the saturation adjustment approach for droplet condensation and evaporation calculation limits the enhancement by aerosols in (1) condensation latent heat by removing the dependence of condensation on droplets and aerosols and (2) ice-related processes because the approach leads to stronger warm rain and weaker ice processes than the explicit supersaturation approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of active satellite sensors' low-level cloud detection limitations on cloud radiative forcing in the Arctic

Previous studies revealed that satellites sensors with the best detection capability identify 25 %–40 % and 0 %–25 % fewer clouds below 0.5 and between 0.5–1.0 km, respectively, over the Arctic. Quantifying the impacts of cloud detection limitations on the radiation flux are critical especially over the Arctic Ocean considering the dramatic changes in Arctic sea ice. In this study, the proxies of the space-based radar, CloudSat, and lidar, CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations), cloud masks are derived based on simulated radar reflectivity with QuickBeam and cloud optical thickness using retrieved cloud properties from surface-based radar and lidar during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment. Limitations in low-level cloud detection by the space-based active sensors, and the impact of these limitations on the radiation fluxes at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), are estimated with radiative transfer model Streamer. The results show that the combined CloudSat and CALIPSO product generally detects all clouds above 1 km, while detecting 25 % (9 %) fewer in absolute values below 600 m (600 m to 1 km) than surface observations. These detection limitations lead to uncertainties in the monthly mean cloud radiative forcing (CRF), with maximum absolute monthly mean values of 2.5 and 3.4 Wm –2 at the surface and TOA, respectively. Cloud information from only CALIPSO or CloudSat lead to larger cloud detection differences compared to the surface observations and larger CRF uncertainties with absolute monthly means larger than 10.0 Wm –2 at the surface and TOA. The uncertainties for individual cases are larger – up to 30 Wm –2 . These uncertainties need to be considered when radiation flux products from CloudSat and CALIPSO are used in climate and weather studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of land use change and elevated CO 2 on the interannual variations and seasonal cycles of gross primary productivity in China

Climate change, rising CO 2 concentration, and landuse and land cover change (LULCC) are primary driving forces for terrestrialgross primary productivity (GPP), but their impacts on the temporal changesin GPP are uncertain. In this study, the effects of the three main factorson the interannual variation (IAV) and seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of GPPin China were investigated using 12 terrestrial biosphere models from theMulti-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project. Thesimulated ensemble mean value of China's GPP between 1981 and 2010, drivenby common climate forcing, LULCC and CO 2 data, was found to be7.4±1.8 Pg C yr -1 . In general, climate was the dominant controlfactor of the annual trends, IAV and seasonality of China's GPP. Theoverall rising CO2 led to enhanced plant photosynthesis, thusincreasing annual mean and IAV of China's total GPP, especially innortheastern and southern China, where vegetation is dense. LULCC decreasedthe IAV of China's total GPP by ~7%, whereas rising CO 2 induced an increase of 8 %. Compared to climate change andelevated CO 2 , LULCC showed less contributions to GPP's temporalvariation, and its impact acted locally, mainly in southwestern China.Furthermore, this study also examined subregional contributions to thetemporal changes in China's total GPP. Southern and southeastern Chinashowed higher contributions to China's annual GPP, whereas southwestern andcentral parts of China explained larger fractions of the IAV in China's GPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): organization and experimental design

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging, but also has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary studies, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)/Global Atmospheric System Study (GASS) has launched a new initiative called “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) as the first international grass-roots effort to introduce spring land surface temperature (LST)/subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies over high mountain areas as a crucial factor that can lead to significant improvement in precipitation prediction through the remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. LS4P focuses on process understanding and predictability, and hence it is different from, and complements, other international projects that focus on the operational S2S prediction. More than 40 groups worldwide have participated in this effort, including 21 Earth system models, 9 regional climate models, and 7 data groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗