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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Unlocking the potential of biogas systems for energy production and climate solutions in rural communities

On-site conversion of organic waste into biogas to satisfy consumer energy demand has the potential to realize energy equality and mitigate climate change reliably. However, existing methods ignore either real-time full supply or methane escape when supply and demand are mismatched. Here, we show an improved design of community biogas production and distribution system to overcome these and achieve full co-benefits in developing economies. We take five existing systems as empirical examples. Mechanisms of synergistic adjusting out-of-step biogas flow rates on both the plant-side and user-side are defined to obtain consumption-to-production ratios of close to 1, such that biogas demand of rural inhabitants can be met. Furthermore, carbon mitigation and its viability under universal prevailing climates are illustrated. Coupled with manure management optimization, Chinese national deployment of the proposed system would contribute a 3.77% reduction towards meeting its global 1.5 °C target. Additionally, fulfilling others’ energy demands has considerable decarbonization potential.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Parameter Optimization Toolbox for NS-3 network optimization, NS-3 Parameter Optimization Framework [SWR-18-60]

This simulation-based parameter optimization framework is proposed to tune parameters of different types of communication networks using ns-3 to achieve the optimal network performance. It consists of three main components: an ns-3 packet reporting module; a sampler running simulations with all possible parameter sets for the input parameter variables by using a parallel executor at each generation; and a hybrid optimization algorithm for tuning configurable parameters of hybrid designs and application parameter variables. The proposed hybrid metaheuristic optimization algorithm combines an evolutionary algorithm with a gradient descent function to quickly achieve an approximate globally optimum solution. This software is designed to be used in a multi-core processing Linux environment and run over a long duration of time. The execution time varies depending mainly upon the nature of the ns-3 configuration being simulated. This software includes a custom ns-3 QoS measurement application which must be included with the ns-3 source code during installation of the software.

Hasandka, Adarsh↗

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. In conclusion, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind Plant Performance to Key Turbine Design Parameters: A Systems Engineering Approach; Preprint

This paper introduces the development of a new software framework for research, design, and development of wind energy systems which is meant to 1) represent a full wind plant including all physical and nonphysical assets and associated costs up to the point of grid interconnection, 2) allow use of interchangeable models of varying fidelity for different aspects of the system, and 3) support system level multidisciplinary analyses and optimizations. This paper describes the design of the overall software capability and applies it to a global sensitivity analysis of wind turbine and plant performance and cost. The analysis was performed using three different model configurations involving different levels of fidelity, which illustrate how increasing fidelity can preserve important system interactions that build up to overall system performance and cost. Analyses were performed for a reference wind plant based on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 5-MW reference turbine at a mid-Atlantic offshore location within the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Demeter calibration and uncertainty analysis

Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human-Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack a good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and the parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model’s performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned, especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios, suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in the Demeter downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users, and ultimately contribute to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)

Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model's performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned,especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios,suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in Demeter-downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users and ultimately contributes to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Oceanic mesoscale variability and general circulation from satellite altimetry: A status report

Progress on the applications of satellite altimetry from SEASAT and Geos-3 to the study of oceanic mesoscale variability and general circulation is reviewed. The major conclusion for the applications to mesoscale variability is that an optimally designed altimetric mission with a lifetime of several years will improve our knowledge of the global mesoscale variability to an extent unattainable by any other practical means. The proposed Topex mission will allow one to view the global oceanic variability in such a wide range of periods and wavelengths: from 20 days to 3 to 5 years; from 50 to 10,000 km. However, the goal of determining the general circulation cannot be achieved by a single altimetric mission, because a highly accurate geoid needs to be determined independently. The scenario of the combination of Topex with Gravsat, a gravity mission that will give accurate geoid information, will allow the global general circulation to be determined at scales as small as 100 km. Areas of research needing to be performed with existing altimeter data are also discussed.

Fu, L. L.↗

Optimal Variable-Structure Control Tracking of Spacecraft Maneuvers

An optimal control approach using variable-structure (sliding-mode) tracking for large angle spacecraft maneuvers is presented. The approach expands upon a previously derived regulation result using a quaternion parameterization for the kinematic equations of motion. This parameterization is used since it is free of singularities. The main contribution of this paper is the utilization of a simple term in the control law that produces a maneuver to the reference attitude trajectory in the shortest distance. Also, a multiplicative error quaternion between the desired and actual attitude is used to derive the control law. Sliding-mode switching surfaces are derived using an optimal-control analysis. Control laws are given using either external torque commands or reaction wheel commands. Global asymptotic stability is shown for both cases using a Lyapunov analysis. Simulation results are shown which use the new control strategy to stabilize the motion of the Microwave Anisotropy Probe spacecraft.

John L. Crassidis↗

Stress Recovery and Error Estimation for 3-D Shell Structures

The C1-continuous stress fields obtained from finite element analyses are in general lower- order accurate than are the corresponding displacement fields. Much effort has focussed on increasing their accuracy and/or their continuity, both for improved stress prediction and especially error estimation. A previous project developed a penalized, discrete least squares variational procedure that increases the accuracy and continuity of the stress field. The variational problem is solved by a post-processing, 'finite-element-type' analysis to recover a smooth, more accurate, C1-continuous stress field given the 'raw' finite element stresses. This analysis has been named the SEA/PDLS. The recovered stress field can be used in a posteriori error estimators, such as the Zienkiewicz-Zhu error estimator or equilibrium error estimators. The procedure was well-developed for the two-dimensional (plane) case involving low-order finite elements. It has been demonstrated that, if optimal finite element stresses are used for the post-processing, the recovered stress field is globally superconvergent. Extension of this work to three dimensional solids is straightforward. Attachment: Stress recovery and error estimation for shell structure (abstract only). A 4-node, shear-deformable flat shell element developed via explicit Kirchhoff constraints (abstract only). A novel four-node quadrilateral smoothing element for stress enhancement and error estimation (abstract only).

Riggs, H. R.↗

Genomic clocks and evolutionary timescales

For decades, molecular clocks have helped to illuminate the evolutionary timescale of life, but now genomic data pose a challenge for time estimation methods. It is unclear how to integrate data from many genes, each potentially evolving under a different model of substitution and at a different rate. Current methods can be grouped by the way the data are handled (genes considered separately or combined into a 'supergene') and the way gene-specific rate models are applied (global versus local clock). There are advantages and disadvantages to each of these approaches, and the optimal method has not yet emerged. Fortunately, time estimates inferred using many genes or proteins have greater precision and appear to be robust to different approaches.

Evolution, Molecular↗

A Simple GPU-Accelerated Two-Dimensional MUSCL-Hancock Solver for Ideal Magnetohydrodynamics

We describe our experience using NVIDIA's CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) C programming environment to implement a two-dimensional second-order MUSCL-Hancock ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solver on a GTX 480 Graphics Processing Unit (GPU). Taking a simple approach in which the MHD variables are stored exclusively in the global memory of the GTX 480 and accessed in a cache-friendly manner (without further optimizing memory access by, for example, staging data in the GPU's faster shared memory), we achieved a maximum speed-up of approx. = 126 for a sq 1024 grid relative to the sequential C code running on a single Intel Nehalem (2.8 GHz) core. This speedup is consistent with simple estimates based on the known floating point performance, memory throughput and parallel processing capacity of the GTX 480.

graphics processing units↗

Multigraph-based Routing in Delay Tolerant Networks: An Alternative to Contact Graph Routing

Satellites are leaving the realms of niche use, extending our day-to-day networked infrastructure to space – thereby forcing a generalization of network architectures. The Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) protocol is being developed to give rise to this new Solar System Internet. Predominantly, DTNs in space use globally-distributed contact tables to compute routes. In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel optimized approach for route computations that improves upon traditional approaches. As the general DTN will always include some scheduled links, our new algorithm enables greater scalability and practicality of DTN routing. These contact tables include windows when two nodes can communicate and were classically organized into a contact graph, where the vertices represent contact opportunities. Because the complexity of a contact graph grows with the number of contacts, pathfinding on it does not scale. A new structure using multigraphs with the same data is proposed. We show that a multigraph-based approach, which we call contact multigraph routing, exhibits performance superior to routing based on contact graphs, allowing greater scaling to schedule-based routing. In this paper, the multigraph-based algorithm is detailed and a proof is included showing it outperforms the previous algorithm given the same input. Pseudocode is included, as are simulation results. We conclude with suggested future work.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗

Evaluating Lunar Water Processing System Model Configurations for Small Scale Oxygen and Hydrogen Production Within JAXA'S ISRU Technology

Introduction: In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) refers to novel methods of extracting and processing local resources for use in life support and propulsion systems, reducing or eliminating the required consumables to be transferred from Earth. Current estimates of water-ice availability embedded in regolith within the Moon’s permanently shadowed regions (PSR’s) range between 1-5% by weight. However, the composition and characteristics of the “wet” regolith is unknown. Alternate ISRU excavation techniques and Concept of Operations (ConOps) must be explored to optimize surface system operations based on these factors. To assess the feasibility of different ISRU subsystem technologies and compare system architecture configurations, an interchangeable system model was generated to incorporate technologies spanning excavation of raw materials to storage of products and determine optimal arrangement of total system processing needs. Total Mass, Volume, and Power (M/V/P) requirements were computed for 168 design iterations of this water processing plant. System Model: In FY24, the System Engineering and Integration (SE&I) ISRU Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) team developed a lunar water processing system model using the Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) to estimate the M/V/P for ISRU subsystems operating under a wide range of Hydrogen (H2) and Oxygen (O2) production targets for the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) [1]. Based on Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) surface operational requirements, this system architecture was modified to include the ability to excavate consolidated icy regolith (versus granular ice excavation using Kennedy Space Center’s (KSC) ISRU Pilot Excavator, IPEx) and explore the feasibility of processing the lunar water both inside and outside of the PSR. For the consolidated icy regolith case study, excavation was performed via a mobility transport chassis outfitted with The Regolith Ice Drill for Exploring New Terrain (TRIDENT) for drilling [2] and the Cold Operable Lunar Deployable Arm (COLDArm) [3] for regolith transfer. The system model determines the required rover and payload. M/V/P to handle the required regolith processing rates. The regolith is then sorted and heated to sublimate the ice (via an auger dryer). The exiting high temperature, low pressure vapor is cleaned of volatiles (via cold trap) and electrolyzed to produce H2 and O2. These products are then dried, liquified with 20 K and 90 K cryocoolers (for H2 and O2, respectively), and stored in cylindrical tanks. Study Goals: Due to the different ConOps options of regolith transport to the ridge for processing versus processing it directly inside the PSR, as well as the unknown regolith/water-ice composition, new excavation techniques and their power configurations are being evaluated within a ISRU system architecture for production targets less than NASA’s pilot plant (1 mT). This analysis investigates the feasibility of numerous excavation techniques, power architectures, and logistical operations and determines an optimal system configuration with regards to M/V/P. It aims to investigate which parameters, both locally and globally, have the greatest effect on each subsystem within the plant. This can be used to identify the most critical components of the plant, and guide future decisions on allocating funding for research and development. The results from this study may provide subsystem developers with appropriate interfaces with excavation subsystems and downstream processes, and assessing the overall feasibility of each excavation technique, power architecture, and logistical timeframe. References: [1] Carlson, A. et. al. (2024) ICES. [2] Zacny, K., et. al. (2024) “ASCE Earth and Space”. [3] McCormick, R., et. Al. (2024) IEEE Xplore.

ISRU↗

Bayesian Optimization Under Mixed Constraints with A Slack-Variable Augmented Lagrangian

An augmented Lagrangian (AL) can convert a constrained optimization problem into a sequence of simpler (e.g., unconstrained) problems, which are then usually solved with local solvers. Recently, surrogate-based Bayesian optimization (BO) sub-solvers have been successfully deployed in the AL framework for a more global search in the presence of inequality constraints; however, a drawback was that expected improvement (EI) evaluations relied on Monte Carlo. Here we introduce an alternative slack variable AL, and show that in this formulation the EI may be evaluated with library routines. The slack variables furthermore facilitate equality as well as inequality constraints, and mixtures thereof. We show our new slack “ALBO” compares favorably to the original. Its superiority over conventional alternatives is reinforced on several mixed constraint examples.

Picheny, Victor↗

RECOVERY ACT - Robust Optimization for Connectivity and Flows in Dynamic Complex Networks

The goal of this project was to study robust connectivity and flow patterns of complex multi-scale systems modeled as networks. Networks provide effective ways to study global, system level properties, as well as local, multi-scale interactions at a component level. Numerous applications from power systems, telecommunication, transportation, biology, social science, and other areas have benefited from novel network-based models and their analysis. Modeling and optimization techniques that employ appropriate measures of risk for identifying robust clusters and resilient network designs in networks subject to uncertain failures were investigated in this collaborative multi-university project. In many practical situations one has to deal with uncertainties associated with possible failures of network components, thereby affecting the overall efficiency and performance of the system (e.g., every node/connection has a probability of partial or complete failure). Some extreme examples include power grid component failures, airline hub failures due to weather, or freeway closures due to emergencies. These are also situations in which people, materials, or other resources need to be managed efficiently. Important practical examples include rerouting flow through power grids, adjusting flight plans, and identifying routes for emergency services and supplies, in the event network elements fail unexpectedly. Solutions that are robust under uncertainty, in addition to being economically efficient, are needed. This project has led to the development of novel models and methodologies that can tackle the optimization problems arising in such situations. A number of new concepts, which have not been previously applied in this setting, were investigated in the framework of the project. The results can potentially help decision-makers to better control and identify robust or risk-averse decisions in such situations. Formulations and optimal solutions of the considered problems need to capture uncertainty and risk using appropriate probabilistic, statistical and optimization concepts. The main difficulty arising in addressing these issues is the dramatic increase in the computational complexity of the resulting optimization problems. This project studied novel models and methodologies for risk-averse network optimization- specifically, network design, network flows and cluster detection problems under uncertainty. The approach taken was to incorporate a quantitative risk measure known as conditional value-at-risk that is widely used in financial applications. This approach presents a viable alternate modeling and optimization framework to chance-constrained optimization and mean-variance optimization, one that also facilitates the detection of risk-averse solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Achieving stress-constrained topological design via length scale control

A new suite of computational procedures for stress-constrained continuum topology optimization is presented. In contrast to common approaches for imposing stress constraints, herein it is proposed to limit the maximum stress by controlling the length scale of the optimized design. Several procedures are formulated based on the treatment of the filter radius as a design variable. This enables to automatically manipulate the minimum length scale such that stresses are constrained to the allowable value, while the optimization is driven to minimizing compliance under a volume constraint – without any direct constraints on stresses. Numerical experiments are presented that incorporate the following : 1) Global control over the filter radius that leads to a uniform minimum length scale throughout the design; 2) Spatial variation of the filter radius that leads to local manipulation of the minimum length according to stress concentrations; and 3) Combinations of the two above. The optimized designs provide high-quality trade-offs between compliance, stress and volume. From a computational perspective, the proposed procedures are efficient and simple to implement: essentially, stress-constrained topology optimization is posed as a minimum compliance problem with additional treatment of the length scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Martian sample sites: Examples based on a global geologic perspective

Ten areas were selected that each include several rock units of varying lithology and age. These areas were chosen to optimize the geologic and chronologic data return from Mars. Geologic mapping and stratigraphic studies identify stratigraphic ages, rock types, and information on Martian geologic history that samples of a given site may yield. Volcanic rocks occur over much of the planet and in virtually all stratigraphic positions, and they are amenable to radioisotopic dating. Therefore, a reasonable and essential goal for a sample return mission is to return datable rocks from widely varying strata. Generally, about three or four major geologic units can be sampled at any of the given sites, most of which can probably be dated. The Mars Observer mission will aid greatly in interpreting lithology and defining contacts at the high resolution required to actually pinpoint good sample acquisition sites within these areas.

Scott, D. H.↗