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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multiplicity dependence of charged-particle jet production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The multiplicity dependence of jet production in pp collisions at the centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV is studied for the first time. Jets are reconstructed from charged particles using the anti-$k_T$ algorithm with resolution parameters $\textit{R}$ varying from 0.2 to 0.7. The jets are measured in the pseudorapidity range |$η_{\text{jet}}$| < 0.9 – $\textit{R}$ and in the transverse momentum range 5 < $p^{ch}_{\text{T,jet}}$ < 140 GeV/c. The multiplicity intervals are categorised by the ALICE forward detector V0. The $p_T$ differential cross section of charged-particle jets are compared to leading order (LO) and next-to-leading order (NLO) perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) calculations. It is found that the data are better described by the NLO calculation, although the NLO prediction overestimates the jet cross section below 20 GeV/c. The cross section ratios for different $\textit{R}$ are also measured and compared to model calculations. These measurements provide insights into the angular dependence of jet fragmentation. The jet yield increases with increasing self-normalised charged-particle multiplicity. This increase shows only a weak dependence on jet transverse momentum and resolution parameter at the highest multiplicity. While such behaviour is qualitatively described by the present version of PYTHIA, quantitative description may require implementing new mechanisms for multi-particle production in hadronic collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

System Analysis Support of Consent-Based Siting Efforts - 23400

To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program within the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various system options for the management of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate things like the implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, and different assumed system operation start dates. Some example system analysis results have been published previously. With the passage of the consolidated appropriations acts for fiscal years 2021 and 2022, Congress provided funding and direction for the DOE to move forward with interim storage to support near-term action in managing the nation’s SNF as an important component of an IWMS. Consent-based siting is a phased, adaptive, and collaborative approach to siting facilities that focuses on the needs and concerns of people and communities. Communities participate in the siting process by working carefully through a series of phases and steps with the DOE (as the implementing organization). Each step and phase helps a community determine whether and how hosting a facility to manage SNF is aligned to the community’s goals. By its nature, a consent-based siting process must be transparent, flexible, adaptive, and responsive to community concerns. Thus, the phases and steps are intended to serve as a guide, not a prescriptive set of instructions. System analysis research analysts interface with DOE’s consent-based siting for a federal interim storage program and can perform preliminary system analyses as requested to support various aspects of the consent-based siting team’s work. This paper provides an overview of IWM program’s system analysis activities that support the ongoing consent-based siting process. The questions that decision-makers, planners, communities, and stakeholders might have during the consent-based siting process are similar to questions that have been explored by system analysts previously. Specifically, this paper discusses work that will inform consent-based siting efforts in the areas of community impacts, cost estimates, various SNF acceptance rates by potential facilities, potential consolidated interim storage facility (CISF) capacities and configurations, and the implications of a CISF on the overall waste management system. It is expected that system analysis will continue to be performed to support the consent-based siting process in the future.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Understanding Reaction Networks through Controlled Approach to Equilibrium Experiments Using Transient Methods

We report a combined experimental/theoretical approach to studying heterogeneous gas/solid catalytic processes using low-pressure pulse response experiments achieving a controlled approach to equilibrium that combined with quantum mechanics (QM)-based computational analysis provides information needed to reconstruct the role of the different surface reaction steps. We demonstrate this approach using model catalysts for ammonia synthesis/decomposition. Polycrystalline iron and cobalt are studied via low-pressure TAP (temporal analysis of products) pulse response, with the results interpreted through reaction free energies calculated using QM on Fe-BCC(110), Fe-BCC(111), and Co-FCC(111) facets. In TAP experiments, simultaneous pulsing of ammonia and deuterium creates a condition where the participation of reactants and products can be distinguished in both forward and reverse reaction steps. This establishes a balance between competitive reactions for D* surface species that is used to observe the influence of steps leading to nitrogen formation as the nitrogen product remains far from equilibrium. Here, the approach to equilibrium is further controlled by introducing delay timing between NH 3 and D 2 which allows time for surface reactions to evolve before being driven in the reverse direction from the gas phase. The resulting isotopic product distributions for NH 2 D, NHD 2 , and HD at different temperatures and delay times and NH 3 /D 2 pulsing order reveal the role of the N 2 formation barrier in controlling the surface concentration of NH x * species, as well as providing information on the surface lifetimes of key reaction intermediates. Conclusions derived for monometallic materials are used to interpret experimental results on a more complex and active CoFe bimetallic catalyst.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea

Crab populations in the eastern Bering Sea support some of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, but their future productivity and distribution are uncertain. Here, we explore observed changes in the productivity and distribution for snow crab, Tanner crab, and Bristol Bay red king crab. We link historical indices of environmental variation and predator biomass with observed time series of centroids of abundance and extent of crab stock distribution; we also fit stock–recruit curves including environmental indices for each stock. We then project these relationships under forcing from global climate models to forecast potential productivity and distribution scenarios. Our results suggest that the productivity of snow crab is negatively related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and positively related to ice cover; Tanner crab’s productivity and distribution are negatively associated with cod biomass and sea surface temperature. Aspects of red king crab distribution and productivity appear to be related to bottom temperature, ice cover, the AO, and/or cod biomass. Projecting these relationships forward with available forecasts suggests that Tanner crab may become more productive and shift further offshore, red king crab distribution may contract and move north, and productivity may decrease for snow crab as the population contracts northward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tournament-Based Pretraining to Accelerate Federated Learning

Advances in hardware, proliferation of compute at the edge, and data creation at unprecedented scales have made federated learning (FL) necessary for the next leap forward in pervasive machine learning. For privacy and network reasons, large volumes of data remain stranded on endpoints located in geographically austere (or at least austere network-wise) locations. However, challenges exist to the effective use of these data. To solve the system and functional level challenges, we present an three novel variants of a serverless federated learning framework. We also present tournament-based pretraining, which we demonstrate significantly improves model performance in some experiments. Overall, these extensions to FL and our novel training method enable greater focus on science rather than ML development.

Baughman, Matt↗

Forward Physics Facility - Snowmass 2021 Letter of Interest

A rich physics program remains unexplored in the far-forward region at the LHC. The Forward Physics Facility (FPF) is a proposal to enlarge an existing cavern in the far-forward region of ATLAS to house a suite of experiments with groundbreaking new capabilities for neutrinos, long-lived particle searches, milli-charged particle searches, QCD, dark matter, dark sectors, and cosmic rays. The FPF will be located 500 m from the ATLAS interaction point. It is shielded from the ATLAS interaction point by 100 m of concrete and rock, creating an extremely low-background environment, ideal for many standard model studies and new physics searches. In this Letter of Interest, we describe the FPF’s location and general features, its physics potential in the HL-LHC era, and topics for further study.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

MAPredict: Static Analysis Driven Memory Access Prediction Framework for Modern CPUs

Application memory access patterns are crucial in deciding how much traffic is served by the cache and forwarded to the dynamic random-access memory (DRAM). However, predicting such memory traffic is difficult because of the interplay of prefetchers, compilers, parallel execution, and innovations in manufacturer-specific micro-architectures. This research introduced MAPredict, a static analysis-driven framework that addresses these challenges to predict last-level cache (LLC)-DRAM traffic. By exploring and analyzing the behavior of modern Intel processors, MAPredict formulates cache-aware analytical models. MAPredict invokes these models to predict LLC-DRAM traffic by combining the application model, machine model, and user-provided hints to capture dynamic information. MAPredict successfully predicts LLC-DRAM traffic for different regular access patterns and provides the means to combine static and empirical observations for irregular access patterns. Evaluating 130 workloads from six applications on recent Intel micro-architectures, MAPredict yielded an average accuracy of 99% for streaming, 91% for strided, and 92% for stencil patterns. By coupling static and empirical methods, up to 97% average accuracy was obtained for random access patterns on different micro-architectures.

Monil, M. A. H.↗

Tensor-polarized parton density in the $N → Δ$ transition

The generalized parton distributions for transitions between baryon states with different masses have a forward limit in which they behave as parton densities (light-front momentum transfer Δ + , Δ T = 0, energy transfer Δ - ≠ 0). These "transition parton densities" can realize spin/isospin quantum numbers not accessible in the ground-state nucleon. The N → Δ transition gives rise to a new parton density proportional to the 1/2 → 3/2 spin transition tensor. Its properties are derived, and its magnitude is estimated in the chiral quark-soliton model based on the large-N c limit of QCD.

Delta isobar↗

Physics-informed machine learning

Despite great progress in simulating multiphysics problems using the numerical discretization of partial differential equations (PDEs), one still cannot seamlessly incorporate noisy data into existing algorithms, mesh generation remains complex, and high-dimensional problems governed by parameterized PDEs cannot be tackled. Moreover, solving inverse problems with hidden physics is often prohibitively expensive and requires different formulations and elaborate computer codes. Machine learning has emerged as a promising alternative, but training deep neural networks requires big data, not always available for scientific problems. Instead, such networks can be trained from additional information obtained by enforcing the physical laws (for example, at random points in the continuous space-time domain). Such physics-informed learning integrates (noisy) data and mathematical models, and implements them through neural networks or other kernel-based regression networks. Moreover, it may be possible to design specialized network architectures that automatically satisfy some of the physical invariants for better accuracy, faster training and improved generalization. Furthermore, we review some of the prevailing trends in embedding physics into machine learning, present some of the current capabilities and limitations and discuss diverse applications of physics-informed learning both for forward and inverse problems, including discovering hidden physics and tackling high-dimensional problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An iterative bidirectional gradient boosting approach for CVR baseline estimation

Here this paper presents a novel Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Model (IBi-GBM) for estimating the baseline of Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) programs. In contrast to many existing methods, we treat CVR baseline estimation as a missing data retrieval problem. The approach involves dividing the load and its corresponding temperature profiles into three periods: pre-CVR, CVR, and post-CVR. To restore the missing load profile during the CVR period, the method employs a three-step process. First, a forward-pass GBM is executed using data from the pre-CVR period as inputs. Subsequently, a backward-pass GBM is applied using data from the post-CVR period. The two restored load profiles are reconciled, considering pre-calculated weights derived from forecasting accuracy, and only the leftmost and rightmost points are retained. The newly restored points are then included as inputs for the subsequent iteration. This iterative procedure continues until the original load data in the CVR period is fully restored. We develop IBi-GBM using actual smart meter and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. Our results demonstrate that IBi-GBM exhibits robust performance across various data resolutions and in different seasons and outperforms existing methods by achieving a 1-2% reduction in normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Search for Associated Production of a Higgs Boson and Two Vector Bosons via Vector-Boson Scattering at s = 13 TeV

A search for Higgs boson ( H ) production in association with two vector bosons ( V = W , Z ) via vector-boson scattering (VBS) is presented using proton-proton collision data collected at s = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb - 1 . Events containing two forward jets consistent with VBS, a large-radius jet from the decay of a boosted H to a pair of b quarks, and zero, one, or two charged leptons coming from V decays are selected. The process is excluded at 95% confidence level for observed (expected) values of the V V H H coupling modifier κ 2 V outside the interval 0.40 < κ 2 V < 1.60 ( 0.34 < κ 2 V < 1.66 ), assuming standard model values for all other couplings, thus establishing a novel probe of the V V H H interaction. Constraints are also set on the individual κ 2 W and κ 2 Z coupling modifiers and on the allowed region in the κ 2 W - κ 2 Z plane.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

Potential Infrastructure Cost Savings at Hybrid Wind Plus Solar PV Plants

This report documents the creation of NREL's Balance of System model for Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HybridBOSSE). Balance of System (BOS) costs account for approximately 30% of the capital expenditure required to install a land-based wind plant, and as much as 40% of the cost of installing a solar PV plant. Hybrid Renewable Energy systems present an opportunity to combine balance of system components to achieve cost savings, and HybridBOSSE aims to provide a component-level model to determine the associated BOS costs in a hybrid renewable energy system. Prior BOS models for hybrid systems (at NREL and elsewhere) have relied on empirical curve fits of legacy industry data, limiting their utility and their predictive ability for new technology combinations and configurations, such as those found in Hybrid Plants. Hybrid plants at the utility scale have considerably more interest in the last number of years, with ever-growing capacities in the interconnection queues, and many large developers pivoting to only consider hybrid plants going forward. As these plants become a commercial reality, the need for a detailed analysis of costs in a hybrid plant to fully exploit the available cost savings grows. The tool developed and documented in this work, HybridBOSSE, provides an open-source, python-based method of assessing the costs in hybrid plants. This analysis capability unlocks greater certainty in hybrid plant costs, as well as the ability to examine scenarios of hybridization and glean combinations that offer the greatest flexibility and cost reduction.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Gaussian Mixture Model Solvers for the Boltzmann Equation

This report documents our experience constructing a numerical method for the collisional Boltzmann equation that is capable of accurately capturing the collisionless through strongly collisional limits. We explore three different functional representations and present a detailed account of a numerical method based on a spatially dependent Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as a closeness measure and various expectation maximization (EM) solution algorithms are implemented to find a compact representation in velocity space for distribution functions that exhibit significant non-Maxwellian character. We discuss issues that appear with this representation over a range of Knudsen numbers for a prototypical test problem and demonstrate that the strongly collisional limit recovers a solution to Euler's equations. Looking forward, this approach is broadly applicable to the non-relativistic and relativistic collisional Vlasov equations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Model-based Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Improved Physical Security Design: A Prototype

Prior work in FY24 developed an adversarial AI agent aid in path analysis of physical protection systems. This agent, trained using a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, was able to successfully learn the most vulnerable path in facilities. It was able to extend the current state of practice for physical protection design by exhibiting dynamic behavior based on current environmental conditions. Whereas PathTrace largely performs a static, graph-based analysis, the AI agent was able to make decisions based on relative position in the facility, current conditions (was the adversarial agnet discovered?), and proximity to secondary targets. The agent demonstrated some novel capabilities, but had limitations that need to be resolved before it can be used for production purposes. For example, the adversarial agent generalizes poorly and takes a relatively long time to train. Nonetheless, there is still considerable promise for developing the adversarial agent further in order to explore even richer, more dynamic behaviors (e.g., adversary motivations, environmental debris, and more). This work considers a complementary idea; development of a planning agent. The planning agent is envisioned as an auto-complete-like tool that can help accelerate security system design by human experts. The agent would respect existing barriers and sensors placed by a human expert while offering cost-effective suggestions (i.e., implicitly balancing effectiveness with cost) to improve the design. The goal is for this agent to be part of an expert’s toolbox, not to totally upend the current state-of-practice, or to displace human experts. The ultimate goal would be concurrent training of both the adversarial and planning agent together, to learn entirely through self-play. This would represent an entirely new way of performing system deign. We selected a hierarchical, model-based reinforcement learning algorithm to serve as the planning agent. This is an extension of concepts used in the prior FY24 adversarial agent work. There, we had a single agent acting an environment. Here, we have two different sub-agents (policies), working together, to form a complete agent. There is a manager policy, which can select abstract goals on slower time scales, and a worker, which performs primitive actions to reach goals selected by the manager. It is worth noting that this class of algorithm is challenging to work with. From our understanding, our work is one of the first successful uses of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) in nuclear energy1 , and likely the first hierarchical model-based reinforcement learning application in nuclear energy. Further, this work is one of the first known attempts to apply AI to perform a design tasks in nuclear energy. Consequently, there were significant implementation challenges and the bulk of the work was focused on successful implementation and algorithm design. The results presented here are very low technology readiness level as a consequence of the lack of related literature, but still represent a significant step forward in the pursuit of applied AI for design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Controlling Symmetry Breaking Charge Transfer in BODIPY Pairs

Symmetry breaking charge transfer (SBCT) is a process in which a pair of identical chromophores absorb a photon and use its energy to transfer an electron from one chromophore to the other, breaking the symmetry of the chromophore pair. This excited state phenomenon is observed in photosynthetic organisms where it enables efficient formation of separated charges that ultimately catalyze biosynthesis. SBCT has also been proposed as a means for developing photovoltaics and photocatalytic systems that operate with minimal energy loss. It is known that SBCT in both biological and artificial systems is in part made possible by the local environment in which it occurs, which can move to stabilize the asymmetric SBCT state. However, how environmental degrees of freedom act in concert with steric and structural constraints placed on a chromophore pair to dictate its ability to generate long-lived charge pairs via SBCT remain open topics of investigation. In this work we compare a broad series of dipyrrin dimers that are linked by distinct bridging groups to discern how the spatial separation and mutual orientation of linked chromophores and the structural flexibility of their linker each impact SBCT efficiency. Across this material set, we observe a general trend that SBCT is accelerated as the spatial separation between dimer chromophores decreases, consistent with the expectation that the electronic coupling between these units varies exponentially with their separation. However, one key observation is that the rate of charge recombination following SBCT was found to slow with decreasing interchromophore separation, rather than speed up. This stems from an enhancement of the dimers’ structural rigidity due to increasing steric repulsion as the length of their linker shrinks. This rigidity further inhibits charge recombination in systems where symmetry has already enforced zero HOMO-LUMO overlap. Additionally, for the forward transfer the active torsion is shown to increase LUMO-LUMO coupling, allowing for faster SBCT within bridging groups. Further, by understanding trends for how rates of SBCT and charge recombination depend on a dimer’s internal structure and their environment, we identify design guidelines for creating artificial systems for driving sustained light-induced charge separation. Such systems can find application in solar energy technologies and photocatalytic applications but can serve as a model for light-induced charge separation in biological systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Insights into Probing the Effect of Molecular Weight of Poly(carboxybetaine methacrylate) on the Performance of Forward Osmosis Desalination

Zwitterionic polymers have proven to be a promising nonfouling material that can be applied in the design of selective layers of thin film composite (TFC) membranes. Extending the permeability and usage of TFC membranes have attracted increasing interest in membrane-based desalination processes since water-flux reduction associated with biofouling nowadays persists as a common challenge. By virtue of its strong hydration, this polymer category is very useful to counteract biofouling in marine and biomedical systems, but the benefits from their application in membrane technology are still emerging. The efficacy of the nonfouling property as a function of the polymer’s molecular weight remains unknown. In pursuit of that vision, this study fosters new scientific insights via probing different molecular weights of poly(carboxybetain methacrylate) (PCBMA) coated on the surface as a selective layer for the prepared TFC membranes. The coated zwitterionic membranes (zM) exhibited excellent performance in preventing water flux decay in a bench-scale forward osmosis system. The prepared zM membranes revealed enhanced hydrophilic properties and retained their operational water flux when compared to the control. Our results suggest that using an intermediate-size molecular weight (PCBMA M n 50,000) will result in the best operational performance. The intermediate size resulted in the lowest flux decline rate (R t ) of 0.01 ± 0.001 (zM-50) when compared to the unmodified control membrane 0.56 ± 0.071 (M0) after using a model BSA foulant solution. Furthermore, all coated membranes exhibited similar trends in the observed reverse salt flux profiles, as well. In conclusion, the constructed zM membranes will serve as a model to develop further selective layers in the construction of TFC membranes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advancing simulations of coupled electron and phonon nonequilibrium dynamics using adaptive and multirate time integration

Electronic structure calculations in the time domain provide a deeper understanding of nonequilibrium dynamics in materials. The real-time Boltzmann equation (rt-BTE), used in conjunction with accurate interactions computed from first principles, has enabled reliable predictions of coupled electron and lattice dynamics. However, the timescales and system sizes accessible with this approach are still limited, with two main challenges being the different timescales of electron and phonon interactions and the cost of computing collision integrals. As a result, only a few examples of these calculations exist, mainly for two-dimensional (2D) materials. Here we leverage adaptive and multirate time integration methods to achieve a major step forward in solving the coupled rt-BTEs for electrons and phonons. Relative to conventional (non-adaptive) time-stepping, our approach achieves a 10x speedup for a target accuracy, or greater accuracy by 3–6 orders of magnitude for the same computational cost, enabling efficient calculations in both 2D and bulk materials. This efficiency is showcased by computing the coupled electron and lattice dynamics in graphene up to ~100 ps, as well as modeling ultrafast lattice dynamics and thermal diffuse scattering maps in bulk materials (silicon and gallium arsenide). In addition to improved efficiency, our adaptive method can resolve the characteristic rates of different physical processes, thus naturally bridging different timescales. This enables simulations of longer timescales and provides a framework for modeling multiscale dynamics of coupled degrees of freedom in matter. Our work opens new opportunities for quantitative studies of nonequilibrium physics in materials, including driven lattice dynamics with phonons coupled to electrons, spin, and other degrees of freedom.

Yao, Jia [California Institute of Technology (CalT↗