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DOE OSTI2021

Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach

Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strongly nonlinear wave propagation in elasto-plastic metamaterials: Low-order dynamic modeling

Nonlinear elastic metamaterials are known to support a variety of dynamic phenomena that enhance our capacity to manipulate elastic waves. Since these properties stem from complex, subwavelength geometry, full-scale dynamic simulations are often prohibitively expensive at scales of interest. Prior studies have therefore utilized low-order effective medium models, such as discrete mass-spring lattices, to capture essential properties in the long-wavelength limit. While models of this type have been successfully implemented for a wide variety of nonlinear elastic systems, they have predominantly considered dynamics depending only on the instantaneous kinematics of the lattice, neglecting history-dependent effects, such as wear and plasticity. Here, to address this limitation, the present study develops a lattice-based modeling framework for nonlinear elastic metamaterials undergoing plastic deformation. Due to the history- and rate-dependent nature of plasticity, the framework generally yields a system of differential-algebraic equations whose computational cost is significantly greater than an elastic system of comparable size. We demonstrate the method using several models inspired by classical lattice dynamics and continuum plasticity theory and explore means to obtain empirical plasticity models for general geometries, thereby gaining insight into the influence of microstructural plasticity on effective material performance, which can be used to improve the design of nonlinear mechanical metamaterials.

Dynamic simulation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal and Statistical Mapping of Transition Metal Equilibria in Alkaline Media

Transition metal dissolution and redeposition (D/R) kinetics in alkaline media play a critical role in various chemical and electrochemical processes. Competitive reaction kinetics between different transition metals can modulate individual metal behavior in these processes. To date, these phenomena have remained largely unmeasured, and even when captured, they are difficult to statistically characterize due to their dynamic nature, simultaneous occurrence, and spatially heterogeneous nature. Here, in this study, we develop a statistical analysis framework based on in situ and operando X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to investigate the relative D/R kinetics of multiple transition metals in alkaline media. By employing statistical analysis, we quantify the spatial distribution of D/R species and assess the rate at which the system reaches equilibrium under varying reaction conditions. We show that pH does not simply change the rate of dissolution and redeposition, but reorganizes the cross-element kinetic correlations among Ni, Fe, and Mn and accelerates the spatial equilibration of D/R events, as quantified through correlation analysis, reaction-rate estimation, probability function distributions, and texture-based monitoring statistics. Additionally, we demonstrate how modifying the solvent environment can influence D/R kinetics, providing a pathway for tuning materials synthesis and process optimization. Our study offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between different transition metals and provides a reliable statistical framework for spatial analysis of diverse imaging data sets, enabling deeper extraction of latent information across multiple modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nanopolysaccharide Builder: A User-Friendly Tool for Atomistic Models of Polysaccharide-Based Nanostructures

Here, we introduce Nanopolysaccharide Builder (NPB), a user-friendly software tool designed to construct polysaccharide nanostructures─mainly those based on cellulose, chitin, and chitosan─using experimental data or user-defined parameters. NPB enables the generation of cellulose and chitin allomorphs with customizable biochemical topologies and also facilitates the construction of large bundles that replicate nanostructures found in biological support systems, including plant cell walls and arthropod cuticles. The software outputs atomic Cartesian coordinates in Protein Data Bank (PDB) format and also provides atom connectivity files in PSF and PARM formats, ensuring seamless integration with major molecular dynamics (MD) engines such as NAMD, CHARMM, GROMACS, AMBER, OpenMM, and LAMMPS. Built on an interactive visualization framework, NPB features a graphical user interface (GUI) and supports both macOS and Linux operating systems. By enabling detailed atomic-scale studies of polysaccharide evolution in extracellular matrices and cell walls of algae, bacteria, fungi, and plants, NPB is poised to advance AI-guided research in sustainable chemical development and biomass utilization.

Wan, Zhangmin [Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouve↗

DOE OSTI2026

Iron as a driver of organic carbon fate in permafrost regions

Iron (Fe) and its biogeochemical interactions with organic carbon (OC) exert critical controls over carbon storage and water quality across Arctic and sub-Arctic landscapes. Permafrost thaw affects Fe–organic carbon interactions by exposing thawed material and driving shifts in hydrologic regimes. Here we propose a conceptual framework describing how Fe–OC interactions respond to permafrost thaw and the implications for global carbon cycling. The framework builds on current understanding of hydrologically driven processes that are altered by permafrost thaw, including microbial Fe reduction that influences OC decomposition and carbon emissions; Fe cycling through redox transformations and sulfide oxidation; dissolution and reprecipitation of Fe–OC assemblages; and Fe export to river networks. We put forward four testable hypotheses—on topics from Fe supply to its role in soil OC storage and transfer to rivers—to advance understanding of the coupled environmental controls on pore-scale reactions (that is, microscale reactions at mineral–water–microorganism interfaces) that are central to global Fe–OC cycling. Our framework highlights how soil-profile- and landscape-scale processes, such as hydrologic connectivity and redox dynamics, regulate pore-scale Fe–OC reactions.

Herndon, Elizabeth [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291945493)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thickness and strain dependence of piezoelectric coefficient in BaTiO 3 thin films

We explore the thickness dependence of the converse piezoelectric coefficient (d 33 ) in epitaxial thin films of BaTiO 3 (BTO) grown on (001) SrTiO 3 substrates. Piezoresponse force microscope was performed using an atomic force microscope equipped with an interferometric displacement sensor allowing direct quantification of electromechanical coupling coefficients in BTO free from unwanted background contributions. We find that 80-nm-thick films exhibit a d 33 of ~20.5pm/V, but as the thickness is reduced, the d 33 reduces to less than 2 pm/V for a 10 nm film. To explain the atomistic origin of the effect, we performed molecular dynamics simulations with a recently developed ab initio-derived reactive force field, constructed using the ReaxFF framework. Simulations predict that under applied electric fields thin films of BaTiO 3 show an increasing thickness, with compressive strain, of the region screening the depolarization-field. This study confirms quantitatively the drop in piezoelectric performance in BTO ultrathin films and again highlights the importance of the screening mechanisms when films approach the ultrathin limits in dictating the functional behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Responses with Neural-Network Quantum States

We introduce a variational Monte Carlo framework that combines neural-network quantum states with the Lorentz integral transform technique to compute the dynamical properties of self-bound quantum many-body systems in continuous Hilbert spaces. While broadly applicable to various quantum systems, including atoms and molecules, in this initial application we focus on the photoabsorption cross section of light nuclei, where benchmarks against numerically exact techniques are available. Our accurate theoretical predictions are complemented by robust uncertainty quantification, enabling meaningful comparisons with experiments. Here, we demonstrate that a relatively simple nuclear Hamiltonian—based on a leading-order pionless EFT expansion and known to accurately reproduce ground-state energies of nuclei with 𝐴 ≤ 40—also provides a reliable description of the photoabsorption cross section.

Ab initio calculations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Routing and Traffic Signal Control for CAVs via Reinforcement Learning Approach

Incorporating Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) into urban traffic networks presents opportunities and challenges for traffic management systems. This paper aims to develop an integrated routing and traffic signal control system designed explicitly for CAVs, utilizing a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach. The objective is to enhance traffic flow and improve overall transportation efficiency in the controlled areas. We propose an innovative framework that employs the Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithm, especially the Deep Q-network (DQN), to dynamically adjust the number of vehicles in the routes and the duration of traffic signals. Our simulation results demonstrate that a DQN agent successfully optimizes the number of vehicles in the routes and traffic signal timings of traffic signal controllers, eventually reducing total travel time. The study illustrates the potential usage of RL-based systems in managing routing and traffic signals for CAVs, offering a promising opportunity for future urban traffic management strategies.

Park, Jiho [New York University]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Based Validation of Intelligent Powertrain Strategies for Connected and Automated Vehicles

Systems incorporating Vehicle to Everything (V2X) and conventional cellular based communication in vehicles can significantly help improve energy consumption via a combination of intelligent powertrain control strategies, smarter routing algorithms and driving in such a way as to minimize fuel economy and the emission of carbon dioxide, known as "eco-driving." In projects led by the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), large-scale traffic simulations are created to model real-world scenarios with dynamic behavior that is reactive to imposed changes. Coupled with high fidelity powertrain models, the closed loop framework enables research and development of such Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) enabled technologies at scale. This paper will discuss a traffic system simulation environment that was built based on the High Street urban corridor in Columbus, Ohio. Eco-driving strategies were tested at scale on a variety of powertrain platforms – internal combustion engines, hybrid electric and fully electric vehicles. Furthermore, the paper will focus on hybrid electric powertrain modeling along with details on how the powertrain model was leveraged to develop a sophisticated clustering scheme to help down-select speed traces from large scale simulation studies for validation on vehicle dynamometer. Nominal energy consumption improvement around 12% was observed with good match between simulation studies and vehicle testing.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A general theory of avian migratory connectivity

Birds exhibit a remarkable array of seasonal migrations. Despite much research describing migratory behaviour, the underlying forces driving how a species’ breeding and wintering populations redistribute each year, that is, migratory connectivity, remain largely unknown. Here, we test the hypothesis that birds migrate in a way that minimises energy expenditure while considering intraspecific competition for energy acquisition, by developing a modelling framework that simulates an optimal redistribution of individuals between breeding and wintering areas. Using 25 species across the Americas, we find that the model accurately predicts empirical migration patterns, and thus offers a general explanation for migratory connectivity based on first ecological and energetic principles. Our model provides a strong basis for exploring additional processes underlying the ecology and evolution of migration, but also a framework for predicting how migration impacts local adaptation across seasons and how environmental change may affect population dynamics in migratory species.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Modeling Framework for Lithium Nucleation in 3D Porous Carbon Anodes

Porous carbon scaffolds offer a promising route for mitigating non-uniform lithium (Li) plating to enhance the safety and longevity of Li metal batteries. However, the influence of microstructural morphology on Li nucleation is not well understood. Here, we present a multiscale modeling framework to investigate how the porous microstructure of carbon materials affects Li nucleation behavior. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations quantify the nucleation energy barriers of Li on graphene as a function of Li content, surface curvature, and applied potential, providing key parameters for a classical nucleation theory (CNT) model. From macroscale half-cell simulations, we obtained Li concentration and electrical potential profiles to define boundary conditions for mesoscopic simulations. At the mesoscale, three distinct synthetic 3D microstructures with different porosities and characteristic feature sizes are generated to resolve local distributions of Li flux, current density, and mechanical stress. These outputs are integrated into the CNT model to map spatial variation in nucleation rates. Our findings reveal trade-offs between suppressing nucleation rates and achieving spatial uniformity, offering design guidelines for optimizing porous carbon anodes to balance nucleation control and mechanical integrity.

Materials science↗

DOE OSTI2022

PV DMFA [SWR-21-105]

The Photovoltaic Dynamic Material Flow Assessment (PV DMFA) model (also referred to here as “The model”) is a computational framework written in Python based on utility-scale PV electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of PV materials primarily in crystalline silicon PV technologies. The model evaluates cradle-to-cradle life cycle of utility-scale solar PV systems in the United States in the period 2000-2100. PV DMFA serves as a sustainability analysis tool to assess the impacts of different material circularity practices (i.e., reduce, reuse/refurbish, remanufacture, and recycle), PV module design shifts and sensitivity of material processing and technology related parameters to material installations, waste creation and raw material depletion in PV material supply chains. This tool enables advanced planning for future material needs and informs sustainable pathways for PV material management in the circular economy. This tool could be helpful to a wide range of stakeholders; Particularly, researchers and manufacturers looking for technoeconomic and/or environmental life cycle analysis (LCA) feedback for renewable energy (RE) systems.

Khalifa, SherifA.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Sampling Allocation Procedures for Optimal Quantile Selection

We propose a dynamic sampling allocation and selection paradigm for finding the alternative with the optimal quantile in a Bayesian framework. Myopic allocation policies (MAPs), analogous to existing methods in classic ranking and selection for selecting the alternative with the optimal mean, and computationally efficient selection policies are derived for selecting the alternative with the optimal quantile. Under certain conditions, we prove that the proposed MAPs and selection procedures are consistent, which means that the best quantile would be eventually correctly selected as the sample size goes to infinity. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed schemes can significantly improve the performance.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal gas cooling with minimal aero-opticaldistortion for next generation high-average-power lasers (Progress report, Year 2)

Next-generation lasers that combine high-peak-power ultrashort pulses with high repetition rates have the potential to efficiently deliver the high-average-power outputs required for inertial fusion energy generation, laser-based particle acceleration, and to generate compact secondary x- and 𝛾-ray radiation sources, among others. The combination of long gain length with high surface-to-volume ratio to remove residual heat makes gas-cooled multi-slab amplifier heads an inherently aperture- and average power scalable technology that enables this new class of solid-state lasers, and their thermal management becomes the most pressing technical challenge. As the index-of refraction depends on the gas density, heat removal from the slab surfaces unavoidably entails scattering of propagated light from regions of high temperature fluctuations. The requirement to maximize convective heat extraction from the gain medium under the constraint of minimum optical aberration of the beam renders amplifier slab cooling a technological challenge at the intersection of aero-optics, fluid-mechanics and heat transfer. The goal of this research is to leverage computational fluid dynamics and aero optics simulations of different levels of fidelity to devise a numerical modeling and optimization framework for gas-cooled multi-slab amplifiers. The project will be conducted in close collaboration with the Advanced Photon Technologies Group at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where a gas-cooled test stand for laser materials and thermal management structures will be developed and installed. The final goal of the collaborative effort is to manufacture and benchmark a physical prototype of an numerically optimized amplifier head design. Measurement data on solid-state and thermo-optical distortions will be used for the validation of the numerical models. The key technical challenge in this multi-objective design problem is that of balancing optimal heat removal with minimal optical distortion. To facilitate computationally efficient design optimization and, at the same time, deepen our basic understanding of the interaction of light with turbulence, a complementary study that combines high and low-fidelity flow simulations and aero-optical models is proposed. Along the lines of these two objectives and solution strategies, the project is organized into two thrusts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Annual IC Progress Report

The goal of this project is to computationally investigate the progenitors of astrophysical gamma-ray bursts (GRB), the most extreme explosions in the universe across length and time scales. We have developed a cutting-edge, code-bridging approach to exploring the physics behind these luminous events to test the hypothesis that GRBs with electromagnetic radio emission originate from massive star (MS) and black hole (BH) binary systems. Our multi-scale, multi-physics theoretical framework for GRBs is based on solving well-defined and testable hydrodynamics problems associated with the dynamical evolution of the system. We solve stages of the evolution in a tractable way with a suite of well-developed state-of-the-art computational tools that include the stellar evolution code MESA, the general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) code Athena++, and the binary black hole (BBH) population synthesis code COSMIC, as well as a number of self-written python post-processing tools.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

OC6 Phase Ia: CFD Simulations of the Free-Decay Motion of the DeepCwind Semisubmersible

Currently, the design of floating offshore wind systems is primarily based on mid-fidelity models with empirical drag forces. The tuning of the model coefficients requires data from either experiments or high-fidelity simulations. As part of the OC6 (Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation, and unCertainty (OC6) is a project under the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30 framework) project, the present investigation explores the latter option. A verification and validation study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of the DeepCwind semisubmersible undergoing free-decay motion is performed. Several institutions provided CFD results for validation against the OC6 experimental campaign. The objective is to evaluate whether the CFD setups of the participants can provide valid estimates of the hydrodynamic damping coefficients needed by mid-fidelity models. The linear and quadratic damping coefficients and the equivalent damping ratio are chosen as metrics for validation. Large numerical uncertainties are estimated for the linear and quadratic damping coefficients; however, the equivalent damping ratios are more consistently predicted with lower uncertainty. Some difference is observed between the experimental and CFD surge-decay motion, which is caused by mechanical damping not considered in the simulations that likely originated from the mooring setup, including a Coulomb-friction-type force. Overall, the simulations and the experiment show reasonable agreement, thus demonstrating the feasibility of using CFD simulations to tune mid-fidelity models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear responses with neural-network quantum states

We introduce a variational Monte Carlo framework that combines neural-network quantum states with the Lorentz integral transform technique to compute the dynamical properties of self-bound quantum many-body systems in continuous Hilbert spaces. While broadly applicable to various quantum systems, including atoms and molecules, in this initial application we focus on the photoabsorption cross section of light nuclei, where benchmarks against numerically exact techniques are available. Our accurate theoretical predictions are complemented by robust uncertainty quantification, enabling meaningful comparisons with experiments. We demonstrate that a simple nuclear Hamiltonian, based on a leading-order pionless effective field theory expansion and known to accurately reproduce the ground-state energies of nuclei with $A\leq 20$ nucleons also provides a reliable description of the photoabsorption cross section.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A dynamic charge-charge interaction modulates PP2A:B56 substrate recruitment

The recruitment of substrates by the ser/thr protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A) is poorly understood, limiting our understanding of PP2A-regulated signaling. Recently, the first PP2A:B56 consensus binding motif, LxxIxE, was identified. However, most validated LxxIxE motifs bind PP2A:B56 with micromolar affinities, suggesting that additional motifs exist to enhance PP2A:B56 binding. Here, we report the requirement of a positively charged motif in a subset of PP2A:B56 interactors, including KIF4A, to facilitate B56 binding via dynamic, electrostatic interactions. Using molecular and cellular experiments, we show that a conserved, negatively charged groove on B56 mediates dynamic binding. We also discovered that this positively charged motif, in addition to facilitating KIF4A dephosphorylation, is essential for condensin I binding, a function distinct and exclusive from PP2A-B56 binding. Together, these results reveal how dynamic, charge-charge interactions fine-tune the interactions mediated by specific motifs, providing a new framework for understanding how PP2A regulation drives cellular signaling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗