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NASA NTRS1994

Theoretical, observational, and isotopic estimates of the lifetime of the solar nebula

There are a variety of isotopic data for meteorites which suggest that the protostellar nebula existed and was involved in making planetary materials for some 10(exp 7) yr or more. Many cosmochemists, however, advocate alternative interpretations of such data in order to comply with a perceived constraint, from theoretical considerations, that the nebula existed only for a much shorter time, usually stated as less than or = 10(exp 6) yr. In this paper, we review evidence relevant to solar nebula duration which is available through three different disciplines: theoretical modelling of star formation, isotopic data from meteorites, and astronomical observations of T Tauri stars. Theoretical models based on observations of present star-forming regions indicate that stars like the Sun form by dynamical gravitational collapse of dense cores of cold molecular clouds in the interstellar medium. The collapse to a star and disk occurs rapidly on a time scale of the order 10(exp 5) yr. Disks evolve by dissipating energy while redistributing angular momentum, but it is difficult to predict the rate of evolution, particularly for low mass (compared to the star) disks which nonetheless still contain enough material to account for the observed planetary system. There is no compelling evidence, from available theories of disk structure and evolution, that the solar nebula must have evolved rapidly and could not have persisted for more than 1 Ma. In considering chronologically relevant isotopic data for meteorites, we focus on three methodologies: absolute ages by U-Pb/Pb-Pb, and relative ages by short-lived radionuclides (especially Al-26) and by evolution of Sr-87/Sr-86. Two kinds of meteoritic materials-refractory inclusions such as CAIs and differentiated meteorites (eucrites and angrites) - appear to have experience potentially dateable nebular events. In both case, the most straightforward interpretations of the available data indicate nebular events spanning several Ma. We also consider alternative interpretations, particularly the hypothesis of radically heterogeneous distribution of Al-26, which would avoid these chronological interpretations. The principal impetus for such alternative interpretations seems to be precisely the obviation of the chronological interpretation (i.e., the presumption rather than the inference of a short (less than or = Ma) lifetime of the nebula). Astronomical observations of T Tauri stars indicate that the presence of dusty disks is a common if not universal feature, that the disks are massive enough to accomodate a planetary system such as ours, and that at least some persist for 10(exp 7) yr or more. The results are consistent with the time scales inferred from the meteorite isotopic data. They cannot be considered conclusive with regard to solar nebula time scales, however,in part because it is difficult to relate disk observations to processes that affect meteorites, and in part because the ages assigned for these stars could be wrong by a factor of several in either direction. We conclude that the balance of available evidence favors the view that the nebula existed and was active for at least several Ma. However, because the evidence is not definitive, it is important that the issue be perceived to be an open question, whose answer should be sought rather than presumed.

Podosek, Frank A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Testing the gravitational instability hypothesis?

We challenge a widely accepted assumption of observational cosmology: that successful reconstruction of observed galaxy density fields from measured galaxy velocity fields (or vice versa), using the methods of gravitational instability theory, implies that the observed large-scale structures and large-scale flows were produced by the action of gravity. This assumption is false, in that there exist nongravitational theories that pass the reconstruction tests and gravitational theories with certain forms of biased galaxy formation that fail them. Gravitational instability theory predicts specific correlations between large-scale velocity and mass density fields, but the same correlations arise in any model where (a) structures in the galaxy distribution grow from homogeneous initial conditions in a way that satisfies the continuity equation, and (b) the present-day velocity field is irrotational and proportional to the time-averaged velocity field. We demonstrate these assertions using analytical arguments and N-body simulations. If large-scale structure is formed by gravitational instability, then the ratio of the galaxy density contrast to the divergence of the velocity field yields an estimate of the density parameter Omega (or, more generally, an estimate of beta identically equal to Omega(exp 0.6)/b, where b is an assumed constant of proportionality between galaxy and mass density fluctuations. In nongravitational scenarios, the values of Omega or beta estimated in this way may fail to represent the true cosmological values. However, even if nongravitational forces initiate and shape the growth of structure, gravitationally induced accelerations can dominate the velocity field at late times, long after the action of any nongravitational impulses. The estimated beta approaches the true value in such cases, and in our numerical simulations the estimated beta values are reasonably accurate for both gravitational and nongravitational models. Reconstruction tests that show correlations between galaxy density and velocity fields can rule out some physically interesting models of large-scale structure. In particular, successful reconstructions constrain the nature of any bias between the galaxy and mass distributions, since processes that modulate the efficiency of galaxy formation on large scales in a way that violates the continuity equation also produce a mismatch between the observed galaxy density and the density inferred from the peculiar velocity field. We obtain successful reconstructions for a gravitational model with peaks biasing, but we also show examples of gravitational and nongravitational models that fail reconstruction tests because of more complicated modulations of galaxy formation.

Babul, Arif↗

NASA NTRS1994

Theoretical, observational, and isotopic estimates of the lifetime of the solar nebula

There are a variety of isotopic data for meteorites which suggest that the protostellar nebula existed and was involved in making planetary materials for some 10(exp 7) yr or more. Many cosmochemists, however, advocate alternative interpretations of such data in order to comply with a perceived constraint, from theoretical considerations, that the nebula existed only for a much shorter time, usually stated as less than or equal to 10(exp 6) yr. In this paper, we review evidence relevant to solar nebula duration which is available through three different disciplines: theoretical modeling of star formation, isotopic data from meteorites, and astronomical observations of T Tauri stars. Theoretical models based on observations of present star-forming regions indicate that stars like the Sun form by dynamical gravitational collapse of dense cores of cold molcular clouds in the interstellar clouds in the interstellar medium. The collapse to a star and disk occurs rapidly, on a time scale of the order 10(exp 5) yr. Disks evolve by dissipating energy while redistributing angular momentum, but it is difficult to predict the rate of evolution, particularly for low mass (compared to the star) disks which nonetheless still contain enough material to account for the observed planetary system. There is no compelling evidence, from available theories of disk structure and evolution, that the solar nebula must have evolved rapidly and could not have persisted for more than 1 Ma. In considering chronoloically relevant isotopic data for meteorites, we focus on three methodologies: absolute ages by U-Pb/Pb-Pb, and relative ages by short-lived radionuclides (especially Al-26) and by evolution of Sr-87/Sr-86. Two kinds of meteoritic materials-refractory inclusions such as CAIs and differential meteorites (eucrites and augrites) -- appear to have experienced potentially dateable nebular events. In both cases, the most straightforward interpretations of the available data indicate nebular events spanning several Ma. We also consider alternative interpretations, particularly the hypothesis of radically heterogeneous distribution of Al-26, which would avoid these chronological interpretations. The principal impetus for such alternative interpretations seems to be precisely the obviation of the chronological interpretation (i.e., the presumption rather than the inference of a short (less than or equal to 1 Ma) lifetime of the nebula). Astronomical observations of T Tauri stars indicate that the presence of dusty disks is a common if not universal feature, that the disks are massive enough to accomodate a planetary system such as ours, and that at least some persist for 110(exp 7) yr or more. The results are consistent with the time scales inferred from the meteoritic isotopic data. They cannot be considered conclusive with regard to solar nebula time scales, however, in part because it is difficult to relate disk observations to processes that affect meteorites, and in part because the ages assigned for these stars could be wrong by a factor of several in either direction. We conclude that the balance of available evidence favors the view that the nebula existed and was active for at least several Ma. However, because the evidence is not definitive, it is important that the issue be perceived to be an open question, whose answer should be sought rather than presumed.

Podosek, Frank A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A three-dimensional ring current decay model

This work is an extension of a previous ring current decay model. In the previous work, a two-dimensional kinetic model was constructed to study the temporal variations of the equatorially mirroring ring current ions, considering charge exchange and Coulomb drag losses along drift paths in a magnetic dipole field. In this work, particles with arbitrary pitch angle are considered. By bounce averaging the kinetic equation of the phase space density, information along magnetic field lines can be inferred from the equator. The three-dimensional model is used to simulate the recovery phase of a model great magnetic storm, similar to that which occurred in early February 1986. The initial distribution of ring current ions (at the minimum Dst) is extrapolated to all local times from AMPTE/CCE spacecraft observations on the dawn and dusk sides of the inner magnetosphere spanning the L value range L = 2.25 to 6.75. Observations by AMPTE/CCE of ring current distributions over subsequent orbits during the storm recovery phase are compared to model outputs. In general, the calculated ion fluxes are consistent with observations, except for H+ fluxes at tens of keV, which are always over-estimated. A newly-invented visualization idea, designated as a chromogram, is used to display the spatial and energy dependence of the ring current ion differential flux. Important features of storm-time ring current, such as day-night asymmetry during injection and drift hole on the dayside at low energies (less than 10 keV), are manifested in the chromogram representation. The pitch angle distribution is well fit by the function, j(sub o)(1+Ay(exp n)), where y is sine of the equatorial pitch angle. The evolution of the index n is a combined effect of charge exchange loss and particle drift. At low energies (less than 30 keV), both drift dispersion and charge exchange are important in determining n.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗

NASA NTRS1995

Three-dimensional ring current decay model

This work is an extension of a previous ring current decay model. In the previous work, a two-dimensional kinetic model was constructed to study the temporal variations of the equatorially mirroring ring current ions, considering charge exchange and Coulomb drag losses along drift paths in a magnetic dipole field. In this work, particles with arbitrary pitch angle are considered. By bounce averaging the kinetic equation of the phase space density, information along magnetic field lines can be inferred from the equator. The three-dimensional model is used to simulate the recovery phase of a model great magnetic storm, similar to that which occurred in early February 1986. The initial distribution of ring current ions (at the minimum Dst) is extrapolated to all local times from AMPTE/CCE spacecraft observations on the dawnside and duskside of the inner magnetosphere spanning the L value range L = 2.25 to 6.75. Observations by AMPTE/CCE of ring current distributions over subsequent orbits during the storm recovery phase are compared to model outputs. In general, the calculated ion fluxes are consistent with observations, except for H(+) fluxes at tens of keV, which are always overestimated. A newly invented visualization idea, designated as a chromogram, is used to display the spatial and energy dependence of the ring current ion differential flux. Important features of storm time ring current, such as day-night asymmetry during injection and drift hole on the dayside at low energies (less than 10 keV), are manifested in the chromogram representation. The pitch angle distribution is well fit by the function, J(sub o)(1 + Ay(sup n)), where y is sine of the equatorial pitch angle. The evolution of the index n is a combined effect of charge exchange loss and particle drift. At low energies (less than 30 keV), both drift dispersion and charge exchange are important in determining n.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗

NASA NTRS1999

Accuracy of the Independent Pixel Approximation at Absorbing Wavelengths

In order to correctly interpret shortwave cloud radiation measured by satellites and ground-based radiometers, or by two aircraft flying above and below clouds, we need to better understand interactions between inhomogeneous clouds and solar radiation. The discrepancies between shortwave absorption inferred from measurements and predicted by models, between cloud optical depths estimated from satellites and ground measurements, between single scattering albedo retrieved from in situ radiation measurements and computed from measured droplet size distribution, among others, are strongly affected by cloud horizontal inhomogeneity. Net horizontal photon transport (i. e., horizontal fluxes) are a direct consequence of the inhomoqeneity in cloud structure. Horizontal fluxes and their effect on the accuracy of the pixel-by-pixel one-dimensional (1 D) radiative transfer calculations has recently undergone close scrutiny for conservative scattering. However, the properties and magnitude of horizontal fluxes in absorbing wavelengths are still poorly understood. As far as we are aware, only Ackerman and Cox and Titov discussed correlations between horizontal fluxes at absorbing wavelengths, though these were far from comprehensive. This paper partly fills this gap. We discuss here of whether the accuracy of the Independent Pixel Approximation (IPA), a 1 D radiative transfer approximation for each pixel, is a better model for multiple scattering at conservative or at absorbing wavelengths. Issues addressed here are: (1) dependence of net horizontal fluxes on single scattering albedo; (2) connection between pixel-by-pixel accuracy of the IPA and horizontal fluxes and (3) radiative smoothing and horizontal fluxes at absorbing wavelengths. In contrast to the traditional understanding of IPA, we study IPA accuracies not only for reflectance but also for transmittance and absorptance at both conservative and absorbing wavelengths. In spite of the apparent similarity between the three processes, dependence of IPA accuracies on single-scattering albedo is completely different. As a result, cloud optical properties retrieved from high resolution satellite images and ground-based measurements using IPA at absorbing channels will have different accuracies.

Marchak, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2007

X-Ray, UV, and Optical Observations of Supernova 2006bp with Swift: Detection of Early X-Ray Emission

We present results on the X-ray and optical/UV emission from the Type IIP supernova (SN) 2006bp and the interaction of the SW shock with its environment, obtained with the X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and UV/Optical Telescope (UVOT) on-board the Swift observatory. SN 2006bp is detected in X-rays at a 4.5 sigmalevel of significance in the merged XRT data from days 1 to 12 after the explosion. If the (0.2-10 keV band) X-ray luminosity of L(sub 0.2-10) = (1.8 plus or minus 0.4) x l0(exp 39 ergs s(exp -1) is caused by interaction of the SN shock with circumstellar material (CSM), deposited by a stellar wind from the progenitor's companion star, a mass-loss rate of M is approximately 2x10(exp -6) solar mass yr(exp -1) (v(sub w)/10 km s(exp -l) is inferred. The mass-loss rate is one of the lowest ever recorded for a core-collapse SN and consistent with the non-detection in the radio with the VLA on days 2, 9, and 11 after the explosion. The Swift data further show a fading of the X-ray emission starting around day 12 after the explosion. In combination with a follow-up XMM-Newton observation obtained on day 21 after the explosion, an X-ray rate of decline Lx, varies as t(exp -n) with index n = 1.2 plus or minus 0.6 is inferred. Since no other SN has been detected in X-rays prior to the optical peak and since Type IIP SNe have an extended 'plateau' phase in the optical, we discuss the scenario that the X-rays might be due to inverse Compton scattering of photospheric optical photons off relativistic electrons produced in circumstellar shocks. However, due to the high required value of the Lorentz factor (approximately 10-100), inconsistent with the ejecta velocity inferred from optical line widths, we conclude that Inverse Compton scattering is an unlikely explanation for the observed X-ray emission. The fast evolution of the optical/ultraviolet (1900-5500A) spectral energy distribution and the spectral changes observed with Swift reveal the onset of metal line-blanketing and cooling of the expanding photosphere during the first few weeks after the outburst.

Immler, S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Aerothermodynamic Testing of the Crew Exploration Vehicle in the LaRC 20-Inch Mach 6 and 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnels

An experimental wind tunnel program is being conducted in support of a NASA wide effort to develop a Space Shuttle replacement and to support the Agency s long term objective of returning to the Moon and Mars. This report documents experimental measurements made on several scaled ceramic heat transfer models of the proposed Crew Exploration Vehicle Crew Module. The experimental data highlighted in this test report are to be used to assess numerical tools that will be used to generate the flight aerothermodynamic database. Global heat transfer images and heat transfer distributions were obtained over a range of freestream Reynolds numbers and angles of attack with the phosphor thermography technique. Heat transfer data were measured on the forebody and afterbody and were used to infer the heating on the vehicle as well as the boundary layer state on the forebody surface. Several model support configurations were assessed to minimize potential support interference. In addition, the ability of the global phosphor thermography method to provide quantitative heating measurements in the low temperature environment of the capsule base region was assessed. While naturally fully developed turbulent levels were not obtained on the forebody, the use of boundary layer trips generated fully developed turbulent flow. Laminar and turbulent computational results were shown to be in good agreement with the data. Backshell testing demonstrated the ability to obtain data in the low temperature region as well as demonstrating the lack of significant model support hardware influence on heating.

Berger, Karen T.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Aerothermodynamic Testing of the Crew Exploration Vehicle in the LaRC 20-Inch Mach 6 and 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnels

An experimental wind tunnel program is being conducted in support of a NASA wide effort to develop a Space Shuttle replacement and to support the Agency s long term objective of returning to the Moon and Mars. This article documents experimental measurements made on several scaled ceramic heat transfer models of the proposed Crew Exploration Vehicle Crew Module. The experimental data highlighted in this article are to be used to assess numerical tools that will be used to generate the flight aerothermodynamic database. Global heat transfer images and heat transfer distributions were obtained over a range of freestream Reynolds numbers and angles of attack with the phosphor thermography technique. Heat transfer data were measured on the forebody and afterbody and were used to infer the heating on the vehicle as well as the boundary layer state on the forebody surface. Several model support configurations were assessed to minimize potential support interference. In addition, the ability of the global phosphor thermography method to provide quantitative heating measurements in the low temperature environment of the capsule base region was assessed. While naturally fully developed turbulent levels were not obtained on the forebody, the use of boundary layer trips generated fully developed turbulent flow. Laminar and turbulent computational results were shown to be in good agreement with the data. Backshell testing demonstrated the ability to obtain data in the low temperature region as well as demonstrating the lack of significant model support hardware influence on heating.

Berger, Karen T.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution: III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multi-point hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galactic clusters↗

NASA NTRS2008

Geologic Mapping of the Martian Impact Crater Tooting

Tooting crater is approximately 29 km in diameters, is located at 23.4 deg N, 207.5 deg E and is classified as a multi-layered ejecta crater. Tooting crater is a very young crater, with an estimated age of 700,000 to 2M years. The crater formed on virtually flat lava flows within Amazonis Planitia where there appears to have been no major topographic features prior to the impact, so that we can measure ejecta thickness and cavity volume. In the past 12 months, the authors have: published their first detailed analysis of the geometry of the crater cavity and the distribution of the ejecta layers; refined the geologic map of the interior of Tooting crater through mapping of the cavity at a scale of 1:1100K; and continued the analysis of an increasing number of high resolution images obtained by the CTX and HiRISE instruments. Currently the authors seek to resolve several science issues that have been identified during this mapping, including: what is the origin of the lobate flows on the NW and SW rims of the crater?; how did the ejecta curtain break apart during the formation of the crater, and how uniform was the emplacement process for the ejecta layers; and, can we infer physical characteristics about the ejecta? Future study plans include the completion of a draft geologic map of Tooting crater and submission of it to the U.S. Geological survey for a preliminary review, publishing a second research paper on the detailed geology of the crater cavity and the distribution of the flows on the crater rim, and completing the map text for the 1:100K geologic map description of units at Tooting crater.

Mouginis-Mark, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Neutron Shield Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Uncertainty quantification from radiation transport calculations was conducted using a Bayesian inference approach. A surrogate model, using a convolutional neural network, was employed to emulate the neutron fluence, which was simulated with a Monte Carlo radiation transport model. This allowed for a computationally cheap approach to evaluate input parameters and to sample their corresponding posterior probability distributions. Experimental data from the literature were employed to perform uncertainty quantification studies for concrete shields. As a result, the method is a nonintrusive approach that enables studies with multiple input parameters and can be applied to any radiation transport model.

Bayesian inference↗

NASA NTRS2023

Orbital Debris Shape Effect Investigations for Mitigating Risk

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) and Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) team have coordinated to better understand the risks to upper stages and spacecraft from non-spherical orbital debris. It is well understood that fragmentation (collision or explosion) events in orbit produce fragments of various materials, sizes, and shapes. To further characterize these parameters, the ODPO is developing the next-generation Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 4.0 to include orbital debris shape distributions. Ground-based assets, such as radar and optical sensors, can provide size estimates and some insight into material based on radar return or optical filter photometry/spectroscopy, respectively. Characterizing an object’s shape requires more laboratory analyses to infer how shape affects these measurements. More importantly, in addition to size and material/density, the shape of fragments in orbit will alter the ballistic limit equations used in orbital debris risk assessments with NASA’s Bumper Code. The ODPO plans to release ORDEM 4.0 in the coming years. Performing ground-based laboratory impact tests on high-fidelity spacecraft mockups provides the means to directly measure size, mass, material/density, and shape of fragments, all key parameters needed to characterize real-world break up events. The DebriSat test, the results of which are provided, showcases the details of this type of experiment. The goal of this collaborative research between the ODPO and the HVIT team is to include a shape parameter in the environmental and breakup models used to assess risk for various space structures. This paper examines ground-based laboratory impact tests and the associated fragment shape categories. Provided these defined shapes, the approach is simplified by assuming a right circular cylinder (RCC) approximation with varying length-to-diameter ratios. Highlights of impact tests conducted by the HVIT team using non-spherical projectiles based on the RCC approximation are presented. Hydrocode simulations have also been performed to expand on the complexity of variations with non-spherical projectiles. Lastly, ray-tracing simulations of various RCCs of known material are provided to support the ongoing research on optical reflectance distributions with known shapes and to highlight how this may modify the current optical size estimation model. The status and plan forward are outlined for NASA's orbital debris shape effect investigation using a multidisciplinary approach by the ODPO and the HVIT team.

Heather Cowardin↗

NASA NTRS2023

Orbital Debris Shape Effect Investigations for Mitigating Risk

Heather Cowardin↗

NASA NTRS2014

Asymmetries in Core-Collapse Supernovae from Maps of Radioactiver 44Ti in Cassiopeia A

Asymmetry is required by most numerical simulations of stellar core-collapse explosions, but the form it takes differs significantly among models. The spatial distribution of radioactive 44Ti, synthesized in an exploding star near the boundary between material falling back onto the collapsing core and that ejected into the surroundingmedium1, directly probes the explosion asymmetries. Cassiopeia A is a young2, nearby3, core-collapse4 remnant from which 44Ti emission has previously been detected5-8 but not imaged. Asymmetries in the explosion have been indirectly inferred from a high ratio of observed 44Ti emission to estimated 56Ni emission9, from optical light echoes10, and from jet-like features seen in the X-ray11 and optical12 ejecta. Here we report spatial maps and spectral properties of the 44Ti in Cassiopeia A. This may explain the unexpected lack of correlation between the 44Ti and iron X-ray emission, the latter being visible only in shock-heated material. The observed spatial distribution rules out symmetric explosions even with a high level of convective mixing, as well as highly asymmetric bipolar explosions resulting from a fast-rotating progenitor. Instead, these observations provide strong evidence for the development of low-mode convective instabilities in core-collapse supernovae.

stellarcore-collapse explosions↗

DOE OSTI2023

Shedding light on shadow generalized parton distributions

The feasibility of extracting generalized parton distributions (GPDs) from deeply virtual Compton scattering (DVCS) data has recently been questioned because of the existence of an infinite set of so-called “shadow GPDs” (SGPDs). These SGPDs depend on the process and manifest as multiple solutions (at a fixed scale 𝑄 2 ) to the inverse problem that needs to be solved to infer GPDs from DVCS data. SGPDs therefore pose a significant challenge for extracting GPDs from DVCS data. With this motivation we study the extent to which QCD evolution can provide constraints on SGPDs. This is possible because the known classes of SGPDs begin to contribute to observables after evolution, and can then be constrained (at the input scale 𝑄$^{2}_{0}$) by data that has a finite 𝑄 2 range. The impact that SGPDs could have on determining the total angular momentum, pressure and sheer force distributions, and tomography is also discussed. We find that 𝑄 2 evolution, given empirical data over a wide range of skewness (𝜉 ) and 𝑄 2 scales, constrains the SGPDs studied at low 𝑥 and low 𝜉. If this finding generalizes to all SGPDs—and we have not been able to find any SGPDs with qualitatively different behavior—then this potentially makes extraction of GPDs from DVCS possible over a limited range of 𝑥 and 𝜉.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atomic-Scale Imaging of Condensed Counterions

Here, the functioning of a wide variety of charged macromolecules, from DNA to fuel cell membranes, is dependent on how the counterions surrounding them are arranged. In order to decrease Coulombic repulsion, some of the fixed charges on these molecules are neutralized by a fraction of the counterions-this phenomenon is called counterion condensation. The nature of counterion condensation can be only be inferred indirectly from traditional experiments such as X-ray scattering and modern experiments such as single molecule electrometry. The prevalent conclusion in the literature, based on both theory and experiment, is that the distribution of counterions is peaked right next to the macromolecule, i.e., condensation results in the formation of contact ion pairs. In this study, cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) was used to study the arrangement of condensed halide counterions near a positively charged polypeptoid nanofiber. The locations of both condensed and fixed charges were determined directly from atomic-scale images. Our experimentally determined counterion distributions were peaked at distances of about 5 Å away from the fixed positive charge, indicating the presence of a layer of water molecules between condensed ion pairs. We posit that this distribution is driven by the entropy of the condensed ions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗