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NASA NTRS2007

Precipitation Measurements from Space: The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to bc launched in the early next decade.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A review of nonlinear constitutive models for metals

Over the past two decades a number of thermomechanical constitutive theories have been proposed for viscoplastic metals. These models are in most cases similar in that they utilize a set of internal state variables which provide locally averaged representations of microphysical phenomena such as dislocation rearrangement and grain boundary sliding. The state of development of several of these models is now at the point where accurate theoretical solutions can be obtained for a wide variety of structural problems at elevated temperatures. The fundamentals of viscoplasticity are briefly reviewed and a general framework is outlined. Several of the more prominent models are reviewed, and predictions from models are compared to experimental results.

Allen, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Modeling Aerodynamically Generated Sound of Helicopter Rotors

A great deal of progress has been made in the modeling of aerodynamically generated sound of rotors over the past decade. Although the modeling effort has focused on helicopter main rotors, the theory is generally valid for a wide range of rotor configurations. The Ffowcs Williams Hawkings (FW-H) equation has been the foundation for much of the development. The monopole and dipole source terms of the FW-H equation account for the thickness and loading noise, respectively. Bladevortex-interaction noise and broadband noise are important types of loading noise, hence much research has been directed toward the accurate modeling of these noise mechanisms. Both subsonic and supersonic quadrupole noise formulations have been developed for the prediction of high-speed impulsive noise. In an effort to eliminate the need to compute the quadrupole contribution, the FW-H equation has also been utilized on permeable surfaces surrounding all physical noise sources. Comparisons of the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces with the FW-H equation have shown that the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces can give erroneous results for aeroacoustic problems. Finally, significant progress has been made incorporating the rotor noise models into full vehicle noise prediction tools.

Brentner, Kenneth S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM-Based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis over the Wangchu Basin of Bhutan: Are the Latest Satellite Precipitation Products 3B42V7 Ready for Use in Ungauged Basins?

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the successive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products and further to explore the improvements and error propagation of the latest 3B42V7 algorithm relative to its predecessor 3B42V6 using the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrologic model in the mountainous Wangchu Basin of Bhutan. First, the comparison to a decade-long (2001-2010) daily rain gauge dataset reveals that: 1) 3B42V7 generally improves upon 3B42V6s underestimation both for the whole basin (bias from -41.15 to -8.38) and for a 0.250.25 grid cell with high-density gauges (bias from -40.25 to 0.04), though with modest enhancement of correlation coefficients (CC) (from 0.36 to 0.40 for basin-wide and from 0.37 to 0.41 for grid); and 2) 3B42V7 also improves its occurrence frequency across the rain intensity spectrum. Using the CREST model that has been calibrated with rain gauge inputs, the 3B42V6-based simulation shows limited hydrologic prediction NSCE skill (0.23 in daily scale and 0.25 in monthly scale) while 3B42V7 performs fairly well (0.66 in daily scale and 0.77 in monthly scale), a comparable skill score with the gauge rainfall simulations. After recalibrating the model with the respective TMPA data, significant improvements are observed for 3B42V6 across all categories, but not as much enhancement for the already well-performing 3B42V7 except for a reduction in bias (from -26.98 to -4.81). In summary, the latest 3B42V7 algorithm reveals a significant upgrade from 3B42V6 both in precipitation accuracy (i.e., correcting the underestimation) thus improving its potential hydrological utility. Forcing the model with 3B42V7 rainfall yields comparable skill scores with in-situ gauges even without recalibration of the hydrological model by the satellite precipitation, a compensating approach often used but not favored by the hydrology community, particularly in ungauged basins.

TRMM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of new mixture rules has a substantial impact on combustion predictions for H 2 and NH 3

Complex-forming reactions comprise a substantial fraction of all important combustion reactions and are central to combustion behavior. Despite being often called “pressure-dependent” reactions, their rate constants depend on not only the pressure but also the composition. While modern combustion codes allow arbitrarily high accuracy in treating pressure dependence, recent work has consistently demonstrated dramatic failures of essentially all available treatments of mixture dependence. In situations where mixture dependence is treated at all, it is inevitably treated through specification of pressure-dependent rate constants for a set of pure bath gases, which are then combined to estimate the rate constant in a mixture via a “mixture rule.” While there had been a generally unquestioning confidence in these mixture rules, they had, in reality, been scarcely tested until the last decade, when comparisons against master equation calculations revealed order-of-magnitude errors for important pressure-dependent reactions. New mixture rules, based on the reduced pressure, have recently been proposed and shown to reproduce master equation calculations for broad classes of complex-forming reactions very accurately. Here, in this work, we present an implementation of one such new mixture rule (“LMR-R”) in Cantera and then use it to enable simulations that use new high-accuracy ab initio data for individual bath gases (for the first time, since codes previously could not accommodate the complex bath gas dependence). Demonstrations focus on combustion of H 2 and NH 3 , where (1) high-accuracy ab initio data are available and (2) the impact is expected to be large due to the high fractions of efficient colliders (e.g., H 2 O and NH 3 ) in the burned and unburned gases. Indeed, we find the impact of this treatment to be substantial and may explain previous modeling difficulties for these important carbon-free fuels, particularly for NH 3 , whose extraordinarily high third-body efficiency (~20) is often omitted from kinetic models.

Ammonia↗

DOE OSTI2022

The global decline in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation from 2001 to 2018

The sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation (S ppt ) is a key metric for understanding the variations in vegetation productivity under changing precipitation and predicting future changes in ecosystem functions. However, a comprehensive assessment of S ppt over all the global land is lacking. Here, we investigated spatial patterns and temporal changes of S ppt across the global land from 2001 to 2018 with multiple streams of satellite observations. We found consistent spatial patterns of S ppt with different satellite products: S ppt was highest in dry regions while low in humid regions. Grassland and shrubland showed the highest S ppt , and evergreen needle-leaf forest and wetland showed the lowest. Temporally, S ppt showed a generally declining trend over the past two decades (p < .05), yet with clear spatial heterogeneities. The decline in S ppt was especially noticeable in North America and Europe, likely due to the increase in precipitation. In central Russia and Australia, however, S ppt showed an increasing trend. Biome-wise, most ecosystem types exhibited significant decrease in S ppt , while grassland, evergreen broadleaf forest, and mixed forest showed slight increases or non-significant changes in S ppt . Our finding of the overall decline in S ppt implies a potential stabilization mechanism for ecosystem productivity under climate change. However, the revealed S ppt increase for some regions and ecosystem types, in particular global grasslands, suggests that grasslands might be increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability with continuing global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-scale Multi-physics Scientific Machine Learning for Water Cycle Extreme Events Identification, Labelling, Representation, and Characterization

Impacts of climate are usually felt through extreme events such as droughts, floods, thunderstorms, windstorms, wildfires, and so on, that are intimately tied to the water cycle. Predicting the frequency and severity of extreme events under climate change remains a significant challenge; meanwhile, the mechanisms and impacts of these extremes are far from well understood. There are several major science challenges: (1) Lack of labelled extreme events data and missing standards in defining extremes; (2) Computational demand of high-resolution ensemble climate modeling; (3) Modeling the multiscale multi-physics hierarchical structure of compound extremes; (4) Lack of understanding of mechanisms of extreme events; (5) Large uncertainty in extreme events impacts on infrastructure; (6) Subjective assessment of weather-related risk from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales and lack of metrics for risk assessment and mitigation control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Toward higher order tests of the gravitational interaction

Analyses and interpretations of experiments which test post-Newtonian gravity are usually done under the assumption that gravity is a metric field phenomenon - a manifestation of space-time geometry. This, however, is unnecessary and one can start at a more primitive level - that there simply exists a phenomenological, gravitational, many-body equation of motion which must be determined by a package of observations. In fact, over the last couple decades, a diverse collection of solar system interbody tracking observations, supplemented by data from the binary pulsar system PSR 1913 + 16, has completely mapped out the first post-Newtonian order. After the fact, using empirically determined equations of motion, along with some observed properties of nongravitational clocks and rulers and conservation laws for energy, momentum and angular momentum, a post-Newtonian Lagrangian can be constructed, a geometrical space-time metric field conceptual interpretation can be developed, Lorentz invariance of the equations of motion can be shown, and the equations of motion are found to agree with the predictions of Einstein's gravitational theory, General Relativity, within experimental accuracy.

Nordtvedt, Ken↗

NASA NTRS2008

QuikSCAT follow - on concept study

Global, real-time observations of the speed and direction of winds over the oceans ocean surface vector winds [OSVW]) are high priority measurements for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) weather forecasting, prediction, and hazard warning communities. At present, these data are provided by the experimental National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) QuikSCAT satellite sensor, which is operating well beyond its design lifetime. To continue to meet the Nation’s need for operational OSVW observations beyond QuikSCAT, NOAA tasked the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to design and provide costs for a set of QuikSCAT Follow-On mission options. Three scenarios were examined: 1) a QuikSCAT Replacement mission with capabilities commensurate to QuikSCAT, 2) a next-generation Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM), as recommended in the National Research Council’s decadal survey to provide significantly improved all-weather, allwind, high spatial resolution measurements, and 3) an XOVWM Constellation consisting of two XOVWM observatories to provide improved temporal resolution. In parallel, NOAA asked its users to provide a quantitative assessment of each option’s benefit to NOAA. This report presents the JPL design, risk assessment, and cost for each of three options, together with a summary of the NOAA users’ benefit assessment. The report concludes that though all options are technically feasible for immediate implementation and have a risk posture consistent with a NOAA operational mission, the XOVWM options provide significant observational benefits. While a QuikSCAT Replacement option would continue current operational measurement capabilities, there is a strong and clearly defined operational need for improved capabilities in high winds (e.g., hurricanes or extra-tropical cyclones), heavy precipitation, and near coasts to enable significantly improved severe storm and coastal hazard forecasts, which are provided only by the XOVWM options.

Rodriquez, Ernesto↗

DOE OSTI2020

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Finally, findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1995

Observations of the magnetopause current layer: Cases with no boundary layer and tests of recent models

Evidence for the probable existence of magnetospheric boundary layers was first presented by Hones, et al. (1972), based on VELA satellite plasma observations (no magnetic field measurements were obtained). This magnetotail boundary layer is now known to be the tailward extension of the high-latitude boundary layer or plasma mantle (first uniquely identified using HEOS 2 plasma and field observations by Rosenbauer et al., 1975) and the low-latitude boundary layer (first uniquely identified using IMP 6 plasma and field observations by Eastman et al., 1976). The magnetospheric boundary layer is the region of magnetosheath-like plasma located Earthward of, but generally contiguous with the magnetopause. This boundary layer is typically identified by comparing low-energy (less than 10 keV) ion spectra across the magnetopause. Low-energy electron measurements are also useful for identifying the boundary layer because the shocked solar wind or magnetosheath has a characteristic spectral signature for electrons as well. However, there are magnetopause crossings where low-energy electrons might suggest a depletion layer outside the magnetopause even though the traditional field-rotation signature indicates that this same region is a boundary layer Earthward of the current layer. Our analyses avoided crossings which exhibit such ambiguities. Pristine magnetopause crossings are magnetopause crossings for which the current layer is well defined and for which there is no adjoining magnetospheric boundary layer as defined above. Although most magnetopause models to date apply to such crossings, few comparisons between such theory and observations of pristine magnetopause crossings have been made because most crossings have an associated magnetospheric boundary layer which significantly affects the applicable boundary conditions for the magnetopause current layer. Furthermore, almost no observational studies of magnetopause microstructure have been done even though key theoretical issues have been discussed for over two decades. This is because plasma instruments deployed prior to the ISEE and AMPTE missions did not have the required time resolution and most ISEE investigations to-date have focused on tests of MHD plasma models, especially reconnection. More recently, many phenomenological and theoretical models have been developed to explain the existence and characteristics of the magnetospheric boundary layers with only limited success to date. The cases with no boundary layer treated in this study provide a contrary set of conditions to those observed with a boundary layer. For the measured parameters of such cases, a successful boundary layer model should predict no plasma penetration across the magnetopause. Thus, this research project provides the first direct observational tests of magnetopause models using pristine magnetopause crossings and provides important new results on magnetopause microstructure and associated kinetic processes.

Eastman, Timothy E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

In Situ Measurements of Meteoric Ions

Extraterrestrial material is the source of metal ions in the Earth's atmosphere, Each year approx. 10(exp 8) kg of material is intercepted by the Earth. The origin of this material is predominantly solar orbiting interplanetary debris from comets or asteroids that crosses the Earth's orbit. It contains a very small amount of interstellar material. On occasion the Earth passes through enhanced amounts of debris associated with the orbit of a decaying comet. This leads to enhanced meteor shower displays for up to several days. The number flux of shower material is typically several times the average sporadic background influx of material. Meteoric material is some of the earliest material formed in the solar system. By studying the relative elemental abundances of atmospheric metal ions, information can be gained on the chemical composition of cometary debris and the chemical makeup of the early solar system. Using in situ sampling with rocket-borne ion mass spectrometers; there have been approximately 50 flights that made measurements of the metal ion abundances at attitudes between 80 and 130 km. It is this altitude range where incoming meteoric particles am ablated, the larger ones giving rise to visible meteor. displays. In several rocket measurements isotopic ratios of different atomic ion mass components and metal molecular ion concentrations have been determined and used to identify unambiguously the measured species and to investigate the processes controlling the metal ion distributions The composition of the Earth's ionosphere was first sampled by an ion mass spectrometer flown an a rocket in 1956. In 1958 a rocket-borne ion spectrometer identified, fbr the first time, a layer of metal ions near 95 km. These data were interpreted as evidence of an extraterrestrial rather than a terrestrial source. Istomin predicted: "It seems probable that with some improvement in the method that analysis of the ion composition in the E-region may be used for determining the chemical composition of those meteors which do not reach the ground. Particularly, we hope to get information about the composition difference between particles of different meteor showers and also sporadic and shower meteoroids". These visions categorized the aims of many subsequent rocket-borne ion mass spectrometer experiments in the lower ionosphere, Although the use such measurements to deduce the composition of different classes of meteoroids has not been successful, the past four decades of rocket observations have provided po%erful sets of data for advancing our understanding of meteor ablation, meteoric composition, metal neutral and ion chemistry as well as ionospheric dynamics.

Grebowsky, Joseph M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗

NASA NTRS2017

Detailed Design of an Earth Entry Vehicle for Comet Surface Sample Return

The 2013 Decadal Survey for New Frontiers missions identifies several high-value science missions, including Comet Surface Sample Return (CSSR). A CSSR mission will advance the scientific community's fundamental understanding of the origin of the solar system and the contribution of comets to the volatile inventory of the Earth. An entry capsule, or earth entry vehicle (EEV), is be required to protect the scientific payload from the extreme conditions of atmospheric entry, descent, and landing. The Decadal Survey Mission Concept Study along with an APL (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab) 2007-2008 Comet Surface Sample Mission Study details several of the driving requirements for a CSSR EEV; these include a payload volume and mass and inertial entry velocity of 9 kilometers per second. The mission concept study selected a Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) design concept derived from the Mars Sample Return (MSR) entry capsule design because of its increased reliability over a parachute-based vehicle. This presentation will explore detailed design of a CSSR-capable Earth Entry Vehicle, including trajectories, aeroheating predictions and associated thermal protection system masses, and onboard instrumentation for entry science.

Trajectory Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coupling High-Throughput Experiments and Regression Algorithms to Optimize PGM-Free ORR Electrocatalyst Synthesis

Over the past decades, significant improvement has been achieved in the performance of platinum group metal-free (PGM-free) materials as an alternative to Pt-based electrocatalysts for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR). However, further progress in ORR activity requires evaluation of precursors and synthesis approaches. In response to this challenge, we generated a first of its kind experimental data set of 36 samples using high-throughput synthesis and activity measurements. Several control parameters (e.g., Fe precursor identity, the precursor content, and pyrolysis temperature) were varied. We then developed several state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) based regression models to predict ORR activity, dependent on selected synthesis variables. Through an iterative algorithm, higher prediction accuracy (smaller root-mean-square error) was achieved. We identified that gradient boosting regression (GBR) and support vector regression (SVR), among several methods, work best for this data set. Aided by our ML-based surrogate models, we decided to alter catalyst synthesis conditions, which resulted in a 36% increase in measured ORR activity in comparison to the maximum ORR mass activity value of 21.9 A/g catalyst in the original data set. Overall, this combined experiment and machine learning approach represents a promising path forward toward developing highly efficient next-generation ORR electrocatalysts and, more generally, functional materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

SBN-BD: O(10 GeV) Proton Beam Dump at Fermilab’s PIP-II Linac

Proton beam dumps are prolific sources of mesons enabling a powerful technique to search for vector mediator coupling of dark matter to neutral pion and higher mass meson decays. By the end of the decade the PIP-II linac will be delivering up to 1 MW of proton power to the FNAL campus. This includes a significant increase of power to the Booster Neutrino Beamline (BNB) which delivers 8 GeV protons to the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) detectors. By building a new dedicated beam dump target station, and using the SBN detectors, a greater than an order of magnitude increase in search sensitivity for dark matter relative to the recent MiniBooNE beam dump search can be achieved. This modest cost upgrade to the BNB would begin testing models of the highly motivated relic density limit predictions and provide novel ways to test explanations of the anomalous excess of low energy events seen by MiniBooNE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

SBN-BD: $\mathcal{O}$(10 GeV) Proton Beam Dump at Fermilab's PIP-II Linac

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Biospheric effects of a large extraterrestrial impact: Case study of the cretaceous/tertiary boundary crater

The Chicxulub impact crater, buried in the Yucatan carbonate platform in Mexico, is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. A recently discovered Chicxulub ejecta deposit in Belize contains evidence of carbonate vaporization and precipitation from the vapor plume. Sulfate clasts are almost absent in the Belize ejecta, but are abundant in the coarse ejecta near the crater rim, hwich may reflect the greater abundance of sulfates deep in the target section. The absence of sulfate precipitates in Belize may indicate that most of the vaporized sulfur was deposited in the upper atmosphere. Hydrocode modeling of the impact indicates that between 0.4 to 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact in sulfates. Laser experiments indicate that SO2, SO3, and SO4 are produced, and that complex chemical reactions between plume constituents occur during condensation. The sulfur released as SO3 or SO4 converted rapidly into H2HO4 aerosol. A radiative transfer model coupled with a model of coagulation predicts that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if it contained impurities. The sulfur released as SO2 converted to aerosol slowly due to the rate limiting oxidation of SO2. Radiative transfer calculations combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20 percent of normal for a period of 8-13 years. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 Wm(exp -2), which far exceeded the +8 Wm(exp -2) greenhouse warming caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

Pope, Kevin O.↗