Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “data driven modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,225 records · Page 68
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

An Assessment of the Ability of Potential Spaceborne Instruments to Resolve Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Mounting concern regarding the possibility that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations will initiate climate change has stimulated interest in the feasibility of measuring CO2 mixing ratios from satellites. Currently, the most comprehensive set of atmospheric CO2 data is from the NOAA CMDL cooperative air sampling network, consisting of more than 40 sites where flasks of air are collected approximately weekly. Sporadic observations in the troposphere and stratosphere from airborne in situ and flask samplers are also available. Although the surface network is extensive, there is a dearth of data in the Southern Hemisphere and most of the stations were intentionally placed in remote areas, far from major sources. Sufficiently precise satellite observations with adequate spatial and temporal resolution would substantially increase our knowledge of the atmospheric CO2 distribution and would undoubtedly lead to improved understanding of the global carbon budget. We use a 3-D chemical transport model to investigate the ability of potential satellite instruments with a variety of orbits, horizontal resolution and vertical weighting functions to capture the variation in the modeled CO2 fields. The model is driven by analyzed winds from the Goddard Data Assimilation Office. Simulated CO2 fields are compared with existing surface and aircraft data, and the effects of the model convection scheme and representation of the planetary boundary layer are considered.

Andrews, Arlyn E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering CO Adsorption and Desorption Pathways from Chemical Reaction Neural Network Modeling of Transient Kinetics Spectroscopy

Here, we demonstrate a data-driven approach to interpreting surface reactions by combining time-resolved gas pulsing infrared spectroscopy with chemical reaction neural networks (CRNNs). Using CO adsorption and desorption on Pd(111) at 460–490 K as a model system, we show how transient kinetic data can reveal detailed reaction mechanisms. Starting with a simple one-species model, we systematically evaluate increasingly complex mechanisms involving hollow and bridge site adsorption. Despite the similar goodness of fit to the same experimental absorbance data, our models predict distinct coverage dynamics for different adsorption sites. Through analysis of spectral peak stability and predicted dynamics, we identify a mechanism in which CO primarily adsorbs on bridge sites followed by rapid conversion to hollow sites as being the most physically consistent with experimental observations. This work provides a framework for extracting mechanistic insights from limited experimental data, demonstrating how machine learning can bridge the gap between transient kinetic measurements and a molecular-level understanding of surface reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying urban, industrial, and background changes in NO2 during the COVID-19 lockdown period based on TROPOMI satellite observations

The COVID-19 lockdown had a large impact on anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and particularly on nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). While the overall NO 2 decline over some large cities is well-established, understanding the details remains a challenge since multiple source categories contribute. In this study, a new method of isolation of three components (background NO 2 , NO 2 from urban sources, and NO 2 from industrial point sources) is applied to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on each of them. The approach is based on fitting satellite data by a statistical model with empirical plume dispersion functions driven by a meteorological reanalysis. Population density and surface elevation data as well as coordinates of industrial sources were used in the analysis. The tropospheric NO 2 vertical column density (VCD) values measured by the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinel-5 Precursor over 261 urban areas for the period from 16 March to 15 June 2020 were compared with the average VCD values for the same period in 2018 and 2019. While the background NO 2 component remained almost unchanged, the urban NO 2 component declined by −18 % to −28 % over most regions. India, South America, and a part of Europe (particularly, Italy, France, and Spain) demonstrated a −40 % to −50 % urban emission decline. In contrast, the decline over urban areas in China, where the lockdown was over during the analysed period, was, on average, only -4.4± 8 %. Emissions from large industrial sources in the analysed urban areas varied greatly from region to region from -4.8 ± 6 % for China to -40 ± 10 % for India. Estimated changes in urban emissions are correlated with changes in Google mobility data (the correlation coefficient is 0.62) confirming that changes in traffic were one of the key elements in the decline in urban NO2 emissions. No correlation was found between changes in background NO2 and Google mobility data. On the global scale, the background and urban components were remarkably stable in 2018, 2019, and 2021, with averages of all analysed areas all being within ±2.5 % and suggesting that there were no substantial drifts or shifts in TROPOMI data. The 2020 data are clearly an outlier: in 2020, the mean background component for all analysed areas (without China) was -6.0 % ± 1.2 % and the mean urban component was -26.7 ± 2.6 % or 20σ below the baseline level from the other years.

COVID-19↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-source Estimates of Land / Ocean Moisture Transport Variability over the Satellite Era

It is widely appreciated that atmospheric transport of water from the world’s oceans is a process key to planetary energy balance as well as Earth's habitability. What is not yet clear is the extent of variability in moisture transports, the relative importance of interdecadal variability versus climate change signals, and importantly, our ability to quantify these changes. This work assesses variations in moisture transport variability during the satellite era (~1980 to present) by comparing several different estimates. (i) The most direct estimate is the vertically integrated flux convergence of moisture from reanalyses which use observed wind and moisture information. (ii) One alternative estimate comes from P-ET over land taken from global hydrologic models constrained with precipitation and near-surface meteorology. Here we use an ensemble of six models. An adjunct to this method is to employ satellite derive ET (e.g., GLEAM or DOLCE). (iii) Complementary to this is E-P over the global oceans derived from satellite estimates of P such as TRMM, GPM and GPCP and SeaFlux V3 or J-OFURO3 estimates of E, all relying heavily upon microwave measurements. Transport between land and oceans must essentially balance at monthly scales, i.e., vanish globally. (iv) a fourth perspective comes from estimate of terrestrial RO + storage rate, delta S. G-RUN Ensemble which uses observed streamflow and P measurements to calibrate a statistical model provides the former while GRACE, GRACE-FO provide total water storage anomalies used to calculate storage rate changes. GRACE REC uses GRACE data to train a precipitation-driven statistical model to extend storage estimates before the GRACE era. (All of these alternatives to reanalysis estimates also consider the small atmospheric column water vapor contribution.) We examine the transport changes from these three different methodologies, their relative accuracies and discuss the origin of their differences. Regional trends in moisture flux divergence and their role in multi-decadal trends are considered. Interannual variability arising in connection with ENSO variability is a dominant signal, driven largely by P changes. Trends since 1980 include reductions in moisture delivery to the western U.S., eastern Brazil, and central Africa with recovery of moisture convergence to the Sahel and parts of eastern North America.

Franklin Robertson↗
NASA NTRS2011

Mars-GRAM 2010: Improving the Precision of Mars-GRAM

It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) when used for sensitivity studies for Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) MapYear=0 and large optical depth values, such as tau=3, is less than realistic. Mars-GRAM's perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). Mars-GRAM 2005 has been validated against Radio Science data, and both nadir and limb data from TES. Traditional Mars-GRAM options for representing the mean atmosphere along entry corridors include: (1) TES mapping year 0, with user-controlled dust optical depth and Mars-GRAM data interpolated from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) results driven by selected values of globally-uniform dust optical depth, or (2) TES mapping years 1 and 2, with Mars-GRAM data coming from MGCM results driven by observed TES dust optical depth. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on NASA Ames MGCM. Above 80 km, Mars-GRAM is based on the University of Michigan Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. This choice of data has led to discrepancies that have become apparent during recent sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depths. Unrealistic energy absorption by time-invariant atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes.

Justh, H. L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven learning of Mori–Zwanzig operators for isotropic turbulence

Developing reduced-order models for turbulent flows, which contain dynamics over a wide range of scales, is an extremely challenging problem. In statistical mechanics, the Mori–Zwanzig (MZ) formalism provides a mathematically exact procedure for constructing reduced-order representations of high-dimensional dynamical systems, where the effects due to the unresolved dynamics are captured in the memory kernel and orthogonal dynamics. Turbulence models based on MZ formalism have been scarce due to the limited knowledge of the MZ operators, which originates from the difficulty in deriving MZ kernels for complex nonlinear dynamical systems. In this work, we apply a recently developed data-driven learning algorithm, which is based on Koopman's description of dynamical systems and Mori's linear projection operator, on a set of fully resolved isotropic turbulence datasets to extract the Mori–Zwanzig operators. With data augmentation using known turbulence symmetries, the extracted Markov term, memory kernel, and orthogonal dynamics are statistically converged and the generalized fluctuation–dissipation relation can be verified. The properties of the memory kernel and orthogonal dynamics, and their dependence on the choices of observables are investigated to address the modeling assumptions that are commonly used in MZ-based models. A series of numerical experiments are then constructed using the extracted kernels to evaluate the memory effects on prediction. The results show that the prediction errors are strongly affected by the choice of observables and can be further reduced by including the past history of the observables in the memory kernel.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Foundations of machine learning for low-temperature plasmas: methods and case studies

Abstract Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence have proven to be an invaluable tool in tackling a vast array of scientific, engineering, and societal problems. The main drivers behind the recent proliferation of ML in practically all aspects of science and technology can be attributed to: (a) improved data acquisition and inexpensive data storage; (b) exponential growth in computing power; and (c) availability of open-source software and resources that have made the use of state-of-the-art ML algorithms widely accessible. The impact of ML on the field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) could be particularly significant in the emerging applications that involve plasma treatment of complex interfaces in areas ranging from the manufacture of microelectronics and processing of quantum materials, to the LTP-driven electrification of the chemical industry, and to medicine and biotechnology. This is primarily due to the complex and poorly-understood nature of the plasma-surface interactions in these applications that pose unique challenges to the modeling, diagnostics, and predictive control of LTPs. As the use of ML is becoming more prevalent, it is increasingly paramount for the LTP community to be able to critically analyze and assess the concepts and techniques behind data-driven approaches. To this end, the goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial overview of some of the widely-used ML methods that can be useful, amongst others, for discovering and correlating patterns in the data that may be otherwise impractical to decipher by human intuition alone, for learning multivariable nonlinear data-driven prediction models that are capable of describing the complex behavior of plasma interacting with interfaces, and for guiding the design of experiments to explore the parameter space of plasma-assisted processes in a systematic and resource-efficient manner. We illustrate the utility of various supervised, unsupervised and active learning methods using LTP datasets consisting of commonly-available, information-rich measurements (e.g. optical emission spectra, current–voltage characteristics, scanning electron microscope images, infrared surface temperature measurements, Fourier transform infrared spectra). All the ML demonstrations presented in this paper are carried out using open-source software; the datasets and codes are made publicly available. The FAIR guiding principles for scientific data management and stewardship can accelerate the adoption and development of ML in the LTP community.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-site assessment of the potential of fine resolution red-edge vegetation indices for estimating gross primary production

Gross primary production (GPP) models driven by fine resolution remote sensing data characterize the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in plant photosynthesis, which is largely dependent on biome-specific maximum photosynthetic capacity. The red-edge reflectance, sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, is a good proxy of maximum photosynthetic capacity. More importantly, studies show that the red-edge reflectance-related chlorophyll content index (CIr) multiplied by the incident photosynthetic active radiation (PAR in ) strongly correlates to GPP estimated at carbon flux towers (GPP flux ). Yet, to the best of our knowledge, there is no systematic study investigating the general relationship between fine spatial resolution CIr and GPP among biomes and the relationship between CIr and maximum photosynthetic capacity in GPP models. To provide an overview on incorporating space-borne CIr into a GPP model, we applied fine resolution Sentinel-2-derived CIr and GPP flux over 57 flux sites representative of 10 biomes. We investigated the relationship between CIr and GPP flux , and the spatio-temporal relationship between CIr and ecosystem maximum photosynthetic capacity indicated by the potential ecosystem light use efficiency (LUE pot ). We also evaluated the relationship between other five vegetation indices (VIs) and GPP flux . Results showed that the CIr multiplied by PARin has a higher agreement (R 2 > 0.5) with GPP than other VIs. A universal relationship exists between the CIr multiplied by PARin and GPP, except for forest biomes. The CIr also strongly (R 2 > 0.5) relates to the LUE pot during the peak of the growing season. The CIr has a low spatial variance (CV = 0.25) among biomes, highlighting that CIr can be a proxy of maximum photosynthetic capacity in GPP models that do not require biome-dependent coefficients. This study provides insight for incorporating CIr into GPP models and better quantifying global terrestrial photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Efficient 1-D Thermal Stratification Model for Pool-Type Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors

Investigating thermal stratification in the upper plenum of a sodium fast reactor (SFR) is presently a technology gap in SFR safety analysis. Understanding thermal stratification will promote safe operation of the SFR before its commercial deployment. Stratified layers of liquid sodium with a large vertical temperature gradient could be established in the upper plenum of an SFR during a down-power or a loss-of-flow transient. These stratified layers are unstable and could result in uncertainties for the core safety of an SFR. In order to predict the occurrence of the thermal stratification efficiently, we developed a one-dimensional (1-D) transport model to estimate the temperature profile of the ambient fluid in the upper plenum. This model demands much less computational effort than computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes and provides calculations with higher fidelity than historical system-level codes. Two flow conditions were considered separately in the current study depending on if in-vessel components are presented in the upper plenum. For the condition where in-vessel components, specifically the upper internal structure, are presented, we assumed that the impinging sodium was evenly dispersed in the ambient fluid within the distance between the bottom of the in-vessel component and the jet inlet surface. For the condition where no in-vessel components are presented, we assumed that the impinging sodium was evenly dispersed in the ambient fluid within the jet length, which was determined through data-driven trainings. The newly developed 1-D model showed similar performance with the CFD model in both cases. However, due to the assumption of flat profiles of the impinging jet axial dispersion rate, nonnegligible discrepancies between the 1-D prediction and the measured data were observed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Setup and Learning-Based AI Model for Developing Accurate PV Inverter Models

The integration of power electronics-based interfaces presents challenges due to the absence of detailed models and the high computational complexity. Generic models used in system studies lack accuracy in capturing converter dynamics. This paper proposes a data-driven approach developed from experimental setup data. This approach enhances accuracy in photovoltaic inverter modeling. We used two types of PV inverters in the experiment. The recorded experimental data undergo processing through a machine learning model. Results from the model trained through machine learning is also presented.

artificial intelligence↗
NASA NTRS1993

CD volume design and verification

In this paper, we describe a prototype for CD-ROM volume design and verification. This prototype allows users to create their own model of CD volumes by modifying a prototypical model. Rule-based verification of the test volumes can then be performed later on against the volume definition. This working prototype has proven the concept of model-driven rule-based design and verification for large quantity of data. The model defined for the CD-ROM volumes becomes a data model as well as an executable specification.

Li, Y. P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven framework for predicting machining stability: employing simulated data, operational modal analysis, and enhanced transfer learning

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, presents a significant challenge in machining operations, particularly in high-speed milling, where it can degrade tool life, reduce material removal efficiency, and compromise workpiece quality. Addressing this challenge requires a reliable predictive model that can accommodate the complex dynamics of various machining scenarios. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to predicting machining stability, leveraging over 140,000 simulated datasets and employing advanced techniques such as operational modal analysis (OMA), enhanced transfer learning (TL), and receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA). By integrating these methodologies, the framework effectively classifies and predicts chatter across diverse operational modes, achieving robust and accurate outcomes. Our model utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier trained with the comprehensive dataset, which demonstrates substantial improvements in both predictive accuracy and robustness. Specifically, the RF model achieved an accuracy rate of 85%, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, and an F1 score of 0.88, underscoring its capability to adapt to varying machining configurations. These results highlight the framework’s potential to enhance operational efficiency and machining quality by providing reliable chatter predictions across a broad range of machining parameters. In conclusion, this research thus offers a significant advancement in predictive maintenance for machining processes, enabling more stable and efficient manufacturing operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2024

Augmenting RANS Turbulence Models Guided by Field Inversion and Machine Learning

This report investigates the use of a data-driven approach, viz., Field Inversion and Machine Learning (FIML), to improve conventional RANS turbulence models like the Spalart-Allmaras model and the Menter SST k-ω model. One of the crucial aspects of using an ML-based approach with limited training data to produce corrections that are generalizable to a large range of flow configurations is to design appropriate “features” (inputs to the ML model). A model, based on guidance from the FIML methodology, is presented in analytical form. An additional list of potential features is provided. Although these were not used in the present correction, they were considered in the course of its development, and are included to fully document the complete process employed in the present work.

turbulence modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and Control Using Stochastic Distribution Control Theory for Intersection Traffic Flow

In this work, we investigated stochastic distribution control theory-based traffic signal optimization to achieve a smooth and uniform flow of vehicles through signalized intersections. In this context, the static and linear dynamic stochastic distribution models were developed to express the relationship between the signal timing and the traffic queue length together with its probability density function. Two stochastic distribution control algorithms were designed to control the signal timing at intersections such that the probability density function of the traffic queue of each intersection road segment is made as narrow and as small as possible. Also, a recursive input-output traffic queue estimation model was proposed, which is data-driven and dynamic in nature, to calculate real-time traffic queue length using traffic signal timings and loop-detector data. The control algorithms were evaluated for a one-signal corridor, two-signal corridor, and 2 x 2 network of signalized intersections. MATLAB simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the use of the proposed algorithms and comparison to the existing widely-used semi-actuated control has been made. Desired results were obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of physiologically relevant photosynthetic energy flows into whole genome models of light‐driven metabolism

SUMMARY Characterizing photosynthetic productivity is necessary to understand the ecological contributions and biotechnology potential of plants, algae, and cyanobacteria. Light capture efficiency and photophysiology have long been characterized by measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence dynamics. However, these investigations typically do not consider the metabolic network downstream of light harvesting. By contrast, genome‐scale metabolic models capture species‐specific metabolic capabilities but have yet to incorporate the rapid regulation of the light harvesting apparatus. Here, we combine chlorophyll fluorescence parameters defining photosynthetic and non‐photosynthetic yield of absorbed light energy with a metabolic model of the pennate diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum. This integration increases the model predictive accuracy regarding growth rate, intracellular oxygen production and consumption, and metabolic pathway usage. Through the quantification of excess electron transport, we uncover the sequential activation of non‐radiative energy dissipation processes, cross‐compartment electron shuttling, and non‐photochemical quenching as the rapid photoacclimation strategy in P. tricornutum. Interestingly, the photon absorption thresholds that trigger the transition between these mechanisms were consistent at low and high incident photon fluxes. We use this understanding to explore engineering strategies for rerouting cellular resources and excess light energy towards bioproducts in silico . Overall, we present a methodology for incorporating a common, informative data type into computational models of light‐driven metabolism and show its utilization within the design–build–test–learn cycle for engineering of photosynthetic organisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Abstract The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗