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NASA NTRS1991

The rate of neutron star binary mergers in the universe - Minimal predictions for gravity wave detectors

Of the many sources which gravitational wave observatories might see, merging neutron star binaries are the most predictable. Their waveforms at the observable frequencies are easy to calculate. And three systems which will merge in less than a Hubble time have already been observed as binary pulsars: two in the disk of the Galaxy, and one in a globular cluster. From the lifetimes and positions of these, a lower limit to the merger rate in the Galaxy and globular cluster system are inferred with confidence. Taking the merger rate in other galaxies to scale with the star formation rate, the merger rate expected in the local universe is computed. An ultraconservative lower limit to the rate gives three per year within 1 Gpc. The best estimate, still conservative in that it considers only systems like those already observed, gives three per year within 200 Mpc. An upper limit of three mergers per year within 23/h Mpc is set by the rate of Type Ib supernovae. The rates of black hole binary mergers and black hole-neutron star binary mergers are model-dependent, but could be comparable to the given rate of neutron-star binary mergers.

Phinney, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Imaging other planetary systems from the moon

This paper studies the problem of using a telescope like the HST, only larger and sensitive to a wider range of wavelengths, to image systems of planets like the solar system around other stars. Both reflected starlight and thermal radiation from the planets are treated. The instrumental effects of aperture diffraction, scattering due to the power spectral density of telescope mirror surface errors, and telescope thermal emission are included. The integration time required to achieve a signal-to-noise ratio is computed at 5 for photon-statistical random errors only, which is a necessary but not sufficient criterion for detection at a confidence level of five standard deviations. A cold telescope on the moon with 16m aperture and the optical quality of HST could detect and characterize planets around nearby stars.

Brown, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Proof Testing Of Stainless-Steel Bolts

Report describes study of development of method for nondestructive proof testing of bolts made of A286 stainless steel. Based on concept that the higher load bolt survives, the smaller the largest flaw and, therefore, the longer its fatigue life after test. Calculations and experiments increase confidence in nondestructive proof tests.

Hsieh, Cheng H.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Strain accommodation beneath structures on Mars

A recent review of tectonic features on Mars shows that most of their subsurface structures can be confidently extended only a few kilometers deep (exceptions are rifts, in which bounding normal faults penetrate the entire brittle lithosphere, with ductile flow at deeper levels). Nevertheless, a variety of estimates of elastic lithosphere thickness and application of accepted failure criteria under likely conditions on Mars suggest a brittle lithosphere that is many tens of kilometers thick. This raises the question of how the strain (extension or shortening) accommodated by grabens and wrinkle ridges within the upper few kilometers is being accommodated at deeper levels in the lithosphere. Herein, the nonrift tectonic features present on Mars are briefly reviewed, along with their likely subsurface structures, and some inferences and implications are presented for behavior of the deeper lithosphere.

Golombek, M. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A New Simulator for Assessing Subjective Effects of Sonic Booms

A man rated and computer driven sonic boom simulator which has been constructed and placed in operational use at NASA-Langley is described. The simulator is used to study human subjective reactions to sonic booms and has the capability of producing a wide range of signatures under controlled conditions. Results are presented to illustrate the capability of the simulator to generate user specified N-wave and shaped booms having rise times as low as 0.5 milliseconds and peak overpressures up to 191 Pa (4 psf). The validity of the simulator as a lab research tool for studying human subjective response to sonic booms was demonstrated by successful completion of a preliminary test designed to compare loudness of N-wave sonic booms with results obtained by other investigators. Excellent agreement of the preliminary test data with existing data was observed. This provided confidence in the experimental methodology and established the simulator as a viable tool for performing detailed evaluations of sonic boom loudness and acceptability within the lab. environment.

Leatherwood, Jack D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The flow of plasma in the solar terrestrial environment

The overall goal of our NASA Theory Program is to study the coupling, time delays, and feedback mechanisms between the various regions of the solar-terrestrial system in a self-consistent, quantitative, manner. To accomplish this goal, it will eventually be necessary to have time-dependent macroscopic models of the different regions of the solar-terrestrial system and we are continually working toward this goal. However, our immediate emphasis is on the near-earth plasma environment, including the ionosphere, the plasmasphere, and the polar wind. In this area, we have developed unique global models that allow us to study the coupling between the different regions. These results are highlighted. Another important aspect of our NASA Theory Program concerns the effect that localized structure has on the macroscopic flow in the ionosphere, plasmasphere, thermosphere and polar wind. The localized structure can be created by structured magnetospheric inputs (i.e., structured plasma convection, particle precipitation or Birkeland current patterns) or time variations in these inputs due to storms and substorms. Also, some of the plasma flows that we predict with our macroscopic models may be unstable. Another one of our goals is to examine the stability of our predicted flows. Because time-dependent three-dimensional numerical models of the solar-terrestrial environment generally require extensive computer resources, they are usually based on relatively simple mathematical formulations (i.e., simple MHD or hydrodynamic formulations). Therefore, another long-range goal of our NASA Theory Program is to study the conditions under which various mathematical formulations can be applied to specific solar-terrestrial regions. This may involve a detailed comparison of kinetic, semikinetic, and hydrodynamic predictions for a given polar wind scenario or it may involve the comparison of a small-scale particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation of a plasma expansion event with a similar macroscopic expansion event. The different mathematical formulations have different strengths and weaknesses and a careful comparison of model predictions for similar geophysical situations will provide insight into when the various models can be used with confidence.

Schunk, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Development of a calibrated software reliability model for flight and supporting ground software for avionic systems

The object of this project was to develop and calibrate quantitative models for predicting the quality of software. Reliable flight and supporting ground software is a highly important factor in the successful operation of the space shuttle program. The models used in the present study consisted of SMERFS (Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Software). There are ten models in SMERFS. For a first run, the results obtained in modeling the cumulative number of failures versus execution time showed fairly good results for our data. Plots of cumulative software failures versus calendar weeks were made and the model results were compared with the historical data on the same graph. If the model agrees with actual historical behavior for a set of data then there is confidence in future predictions for this data. Considering the quality of the data, the models have given some significant results, even at this early stage. With better care in data collection, data analysis, recording of the fixing of failures and CPU execution times, the models should prove extremely helpful in making predictions regarding the future pattern of failures, including an estimate of the number of errors remaining in the software and the additional testing time required for the software quality to reach acceptable levels. It appears that there is no one 'best' model for all cases. It is for this reason that the aim of this project was to test several models. One of the recommendations resulting from this study is that great care must be taken in the collection of data. When using a model, the data should satisfy the model assumptions.

Lawrence, Stella↗

NASA NTRS1991

SEDS1 mission software verification using a signal simulator

The first flight of the Small Expendable Deployer System (SEDS1) is scheduled as the secondary payload of a Delta II in late 1992. The objective of the SEDS1 mission is to collect data to validate the concept of tethered satellite systems and to verify computer simulations used to predict their behavior. A series of tests will be performed to exercise the software modules which make up the Mission Software of the SEDS Data System. These tests will be performed by using a SEDS Signal Simulator to generate signals which will simulate the inputs normally produced by sensors and circuits in the SEDS system. The SEDS Signal Simulator will be used in the debugging and in the formal verification of the SEDS1 Mission Software. The Simulator will not only emulate normal flight conditions but also exercise all modules written to handle anticipated anomalous flight conditions, conditions that would be difficult to reproduce and control with actual SEDS hardware. The simulator will help to expedite software development and to increase the confidence of the users of the Mission Software. With little modification, the Simulator should be useful in the software development of future SEDS flights.

Pierson, William E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Reliability growth models for NASA applications

The objective of any reliability growth study is prediction of reliability at some future instant. Another objective is statistical inference, estimation of reliability for reliability demonstration. A cause of concern for the development engineer and management is that reliability demands an excessive number of tests for reliability demonstration. For example, the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) program requirements call for .99 reliability at 90 pct. confidence for demonstration. This requires running 230 tests with zero failure if a classical binomial model is used. It is therefore also an objective to explore the reliability growth models for reliability demonstration and tracking and their applicability to NASA programs. A reliability growth model is an analytical tool used to monitor the reliability progress during the development program and to establish a test plan to demonstrate an acceptable system reliability.

Taneja, Vidya S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Rule groupings: An approach towards verification of expert systems

Knowledge-based expert systems are playing an increasingly important role in NASA space and aircraft systems. However, many of NASA's software applications are life- or mission-critical and knowledge-based systems do not lend themselves to the traditional verification and validation techniques for highly reliable software. Rule-based systems lack the control abstractions found in procedural languages. Hence, it is difficult to verify or maintain such systems. Our goal is to automatically structure a rule-based system into a set of rule-groups having a well-defined interface to other rule-groups. Once a rule base is decomposed into such 'firewalled' units, studying the interactions between rules would become more tractable. Verification-aid tools can then be developed to test the behavior of each such rule-group. Furthermore, the interactions between rule-groups can be studied in a manner similar to integration testing. Such efforts will go a long way towards increasing our confidence in the expert-system software. Our research efforts address the feasibility of automating the identification of rule groups, in order to decompose the rule base into a number of meaningful units.

Mehrotra, Mala↗

NASA NTRS1991

Single wall penetration equations

Five single plate penetration equations are compared for accuracy and effectiveness. These five equations are two well-known equations (Fish-Summers and Schmidt-Holsapple), two equations developed by the Apollo project (Rockwell and Johnson Space Center (JSC), and one recently revised from JSC (Cour-Palais). They were derived from test results, with velocities ranging up to 8 km/s. Microsoft Excel software was used to construct a spreadsheet to calculate the diameters and masses of projectiles for various velocities, varying the material properties of both projectile and target for the five single plate penetration equations. The results were plotted on diameter versus velocity graphs for ballistic and spallation limits using Cricket Graph software, for velocities ranging from 2 to 15 km/s defined for the orbital debris. First, these equations were compared to each other, then each equation was compared with various aluminum projectile densities. Finally, these equations were compared with test results performed at JSC for the Marshall Space Flight Center. These equations predict a wide variety of projectile diameters at a given velocity. Thus, it is very difficult to choose the 'right' prediction equation. The thickness of a single plate could have a large variation by choosing a different penetration equation. Even though all five equations are empirically developed with various materials, especially for aluminum alloys, one cannot be confident in the shield design with the predictions obtained by the penetration equations without verifying by tests.

Hayashida, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Investigation of air transportation technology at Ohio University, 1990-1991

The status of the Joint University Program is given. Brief synopsis of some areas of research follow. The study of spectrum efficient methods for transmitting weather information to aircraft has resulted in definition of an improved amplitude and phase modulation process which permits reutilization of voice channels for both voice and data. The system is being implemented for testing. Multisensor navigation systems introduce increased flexibility and performance for aviation, at the expense of increased complexity. Insuring a high level of system reliability and integrity requires that faults not only be detected, but also isolated to specific elements, so that the remaining capabilities of the system may be used with confidence. An algorithm was developed. The JUP has served as a vehicle for reporting work accomplished in evoked potential vision tracking experiments to determine the engineering parameters of this input and control method. Application of GPS in an interferometric mode permits accurate measurement of differential motion; aircraft attitude may be determined using GPS only, with multiple antennas.

Lilley, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Technical notes and correspondence: Stochastic robustness of linear time-invariant control systems

A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of a linear time-invariant system is described. Monte Carlo evaluations of the system's eigenvalues allows the probability of instability and the related stochastic root locus to be estimated. This analysis approach treats not only Gaussian parameter uncertainties but non-Gaussian cases, including uncertain-but-bounded variation. Confidence intervals for the scalar probability of instability address computational issues inherent in Monte Carlo simulation. Trivial extensions of the procedure admit consideration of alternate discriminants; thus, the probabilities that stipulated degrees of instability will be exceeded or that closed-loop roots will leave desirable regions can also be estimated. Results are particularly amenable to graphical presentation.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An investigation of networking techniques for the ASRM facility

This report is based on the early design concepts for a communications network for the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) facility being built at Yellow Creek near Iuka, MS. The investigators have participated in the early design concepts and in the evaluation of the initial concepts. The continuing system design effort and any modification of the plan will require a careful evaluation of the required bandwidth of the network, the capabilities of the protocol, and the requirements of the controllers and computers on the network. The overall network, which is heterogeneous in protocol and bandwidth, is being modeled, analyzed, simulated, and tested to obtain some degree of confidence in its performance capabilities and in its performance under nominal and heavy loads. The results of the proposed work should have an impact on the design and operation of the ASRM facility.

Moorhead, Robert J., II↗

NASA NTRS1992

Eigensystem realization algorithm modal identification experiences with mini-mast

This paper summarizes work performed under a collaborative research effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the German Aerospace Research Establishment (DLR, Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fur Luft- und Raumfahrt). The objective is to develop and demonstrate system identification technology for future large space structures. Recent experiences using the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA), for modal identification of Mini-Mast, are reported. Mini-Mast is a 20 m long deployable space truss used for structural dynamics and active vibration-control research at the Langley Research Center. A comprehensive analysis of 306 frequency response functions (3 excitation forces and 102 displacement responses) was performed. Emphasis is placed on two topics of current research: (1) gaining an improved understanding of ERA performance characteristics (theory vs. practice); and (2) developing reliable techniques to improve identification results for complex experimental data. Because of nonlinearities and numerous local modes, modal identification of Mini-Mast proved to be surprisingly difficult. Methods were available, ERA, for obtaining detailed, high-confidence results.

Pappa, Richard S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Nondestructive Structural Damage Detection in Flexible Space Structures Using Vibration Characterization

Spacecraft are susceptible to structural damage over their operating life from impact, environmental loads, and fatigue. Structural damage that is not detected and not corrected may potentially cause more damage and eventually catastrophic structural failure. NASA's current fleet of reusable spacecraft, namely the Space Shuttle, has been flown on several missions. In addition, configurations of future NASA space structures, e.g. Space Station Freedom, are larger and more complex than current structures, making them more susceptible to damage as well as being more difficult to inspect. Consequently, a reliable structural damage detection capability is essential to maintain the flight safety of these structures. Visual inspections alone can not locate impending material failure (fatigue cracks, yielding); it can only observe post-failure situations. An alternative approach is to develop an inspection and monitoring system based on vibration characterization that assesses the integrity of structural and mechanical components. A methodology for detecting structural damage is presented. This methodology is based on utilizing modal test data in conjunction with a correlated analytical model of the structure to: (1) identify the structural dynamic characteristics (resonant frequencies and mode shapes) from measurements of ambient motions and/or force excitation; (2) calculate modal residual force vectors to identify the location of structural damage; and (3) conduct a weighted sensitivity analysis in order to assess the extent of mass and stiffness variations, where structural damage is characterized by stiffness reductions. The approach is unique from other existing approaches in that varying system mass and stiffness, mass center locations, the perturbation of both the natural frequencies and mode shapes, and statistical confidence factors for structural parameters and experimental instrumentation are all accounted for directly.

Ricles, James M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Scientific objectives and first results from COMPTEL

The imaging Compton telescope (COMPTEL) is the first imaging telescope in space to explore the MeV gamma ray range. At present it is performing a complete sky survey. In later phases of the mission, selected celestial objects will be studied in more detail. Targets of special interest in the COMPTEL energy range are radio pulsars, X-ray binaries, novae, supernova remnants, molecular clouds, and the interstellar medium within the Milky Way, as well as the nuclei of active galaxies, supernovae, and the diffuse cosmic background radiation in extragalactic space. The first four months of operation demonstrated that COMPTEL basically performs as expected. The Crab is clearly seen at its proper position in the first images of the anticenter region of the Galaxy. The Crab pulsar lightcurve was measured with unprecedented accuracy. The quasar 3C273 was seen for the first time at MeV-energies. Several cosmic bursts within the COMPTEL field of view could be located to an accuracy of about 1 degree. On June 9, 11, and 15, 1991 COMPTEL observed gamma ray (continuum and line) emission from three solar flares. Neutrons were also detected from the June 9 flare. At the present state of analysis, COMPTEL achieves the prelaunch predictions of its sensitivity within a factor of 2. Based on the present performance of COMPTEL, the team is confident that COMPTEL will fulfill its primary mission of surveying and exploring the MeV sky.

Schoenfelder, V.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Three-dimensional compressible turbulent computations for a diffusing S-duct

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the capability of the computational fluid dynamics computer program PARC3D to model flow in a typical diffusing subsonic S-duct, with strong secondary flows. This evaluation is needed to provide confidence in the analysis of aircraft inlets, which have similar geometries. The performance predictions include total pressure profiles, static pressures, velocity profiles, boundary layer data, and skin friction data. Flow in the S-duct is subsonic, and the boundary layers are assumed to be turbulent. The results for both H and O grid solutions, are compared with existing test data.

Smith, C. F.↗