Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Near-Real Time Cloud Properties and Aircraft Icing Indices from GEO and LEO Satellites

Imagers on many of the current and future operational meteorological satellites in geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) and lower Earth orbit (LEO) have enough spectral channels to derive cloud microphysical properties useful for a variety of applications. The products include cloud amount, phase, optical depth, temperature, height and pressure, thickness, effective particle size, and ice or liquid water path, shortwave albedo, and outgoing longwave radiation for each imager pixel. Because aircraft icing depends on cloud temperature, droplet size, and liquid water content as well as aircraft variables, it is possible to estimate the potential icing conditions from the cloud phase, temperature, effective droplet size, and liquid water path. A prototype icing index is currently being derived over the contiguous USA in near-real time from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-10 and 12) data on a half-hourly basis and from NOAA- 16 Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) data when available. Because the threshold-based algorithm is sensitive to small errors and differences in satellite imager and icing is complex process, a new probability based icing diagnosis technique is developed from a limited set of pilot reports. The algorithm produces reasonable patterns of icing probability and intensities when compared with independent model and pilot report data. Methods are discussed for improving the technique for incorporation into operational icing products.

Minnis, Patrick↗

Fall, Recovery, and Characterization of the Novato L6 Chondrite Breccia

The Novato L6 chondrite fragmental breccia fell in California on 17 October 2012, and was recovered after the Cameras for Allsky Meteor Surveillance (CAMS) project determined the meteor's trajectory between 95 and 46 km altitude. The final fragmentation from 42 to 22 km altitude was exceptionally well documented by digital photographs. The first sample was recovered before rain hit the area. First results from a consortium study of the meteorite's characterization, cosmogenic and radiogenic nuclides, origin, and conditions of the fall are presented. Some meteorites did not retain fusion crust and show evidence of spallation. Before entry, the meteoroid was 35+/-5 cm in diameter (mass 80+/-35 kg) with a cosmic-ray exposure age of 9+/-1 Ma, if it had a one-stage exposure history. A two-stage exposure history is more likely, with lower shielding in the last few Ma. Thermoluminescence data suggest a collision event within the last approx.0.1 Ma. Novato probably belonged to the class of shocked L chondrites that have a common shock age of 470 Ma, based on the U, Th-He age of 420+/-220 Ma. The measured orbits of Novato, Jesenice, and Innisfree are consistent with a proposed origin of these shocked L chondrites in the Gefion asteroid family, perhaps directly via the 5:2 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter. Novato experienced a stronger compaction than did other L6 chondrites of shockstage S4. Despite this, a freshly broken surface shows a wide range of organic compounds.

CAMS↗

Statistical analysis of landing contact conditions for three lifting body research vehicles

The landing contact conditions for the HL-10, M2-F2/F3, and the X-24A lifting body vehicles are analyzed statistically for 81 landings. The landing contact parameters analyzed are true airspeed, peak normal acceleration at the center of gravity, roll angle, and roll velocity. Ground measurement parameters analyzed are lateral and longitudinal distance from intended touchdown, lateral distance from touchdown to full stop, and rollout distance. The results are presented in the form of histograms for frequency distributions and cumulative frequency distribution probability curves with a Pearson Type 3 curve fit for extrapolation purposes.

Larson, R. R.↗

Stability of uncertain systems

The asymptotic properties of feedback systems are discussed, containing uncertain parameters and subjected to stochastic perturbations. The approach is functional analytic in flavor and thereby avoids the use of Markov techniques and auxiliary Lyapunov functionals characteristic of the existing work in this area. The results are given for the probability distributions of the accessible signals in the system and are proved using the Prohorov theory of the convergence of measures. For general nonlinear systems, a result similar to the small loop-gain theorem of deterministic stability theory is given. Boundedness is a property of the induced distributions of the signals and not the usual notion of boundedness in norm. For the special class of feedback systems formed by the cascade of a white noise, a sector nonlinearity and convolution operator conditions are given to insure the total boundedness of the overall feedback system.

Blankenship, G. L.↗

Ditching Tests with a 1/16-Size Model of the Navy XP2V-1 Airplane at the Langley Tank No. 2 Monorail

Tests were made with a 1/16 size dynamically similar model of the Navy XP2V-1 airplane to study its performance when ditched. The model was ditched in calm water at the Langley tank no. 2 monorail. Various landing attitudes, speeds, and conditions of damage were simulated. The performance of the node1 was determined and recorded from visual observations, by recording time histories of the longitudinal decelerations, and by taking motion pictures of the ditchings From the results of the tests with the model the following conclusions were drawn: 1. The airplane should be ditched at the normal landing attitude. The flaps should be fully extended to obtain the lowest possible landing speed; 2. Extensive damage will occur in a ditching and the airplane probably will dive violently after a run of about 2 fuselage lengths. Maximum longitudinal decelerations up to about 4g will be encountered; and 3. If a trapezoidal hydroflap 4 feet by 2 feet by 1 foot is attached to the airplane at station 192.4, diving will be prevented and the airplane will probably porpoise in a run of about 4 fuselage lengths with a maximum longitudinal deceleration of less than 3.5g.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗

Physiology of Fluid and Electrolyte Responses During Inactivity: Water Immersion and Bed Rest

This manuscript emphasizes the physiology of fluid-electrolyte-hormonal responses during the prolonged inactivity of bed rest and water immersion. An understanding of the total mechanism of adaptation (deconditioning) should provide more insight into the conditioning process. Findings that need to be confirmed during bed rest and immersion are: (1) the volume and tissues of origin of fluid shifted to the thorax and head; (2) interstitial fluid pressure changes in muscle and subcutaneous tissue, particularly during immersion; and (3) the composition of the incoming presumably interstitial fluid that contributes to the early hypervolemia. Better resolution of the time course and source of the diuretic fluid is needed. Important data will be forthcoming when hypotheses are tested involving the probable action of the emerging diuretic and natriuretic hormones, between themselves and among vasopressin and aldosterone, on diuresis and blood pressure control.

Greenleaf, John E.↗

Code Assesses Risks Posed by Meteoroids and Orbital Debris

BUMPER II version 1.92e is a computer code for assessing the risk of damage from impacts of micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the International Space Station (ISS), including those parts of the ISS covered by shielding that affords partial protection against such impacts. (Other versions of BUMPER II have been written for other spacecraft.) Bumper II quantifies the probability of penetration of shielding and the damage to spacecraft equipment as functions of the size, shape, and orientation of the spacecraft; the parameters of its orbit; failure criteria that quantify impact damage at the threshold of failure for each spacecraft surface; and the impact-damage resistance of each spacecraft surface as defined by "ballistic limit equations" that return the size of a failure-causing particle as a function of target parameters (including materials, configurations, thicknesses, and gap distances) and impact conditions (impact velocity and the density and shape of the impactor). BUMPER II version 1.92e contains several dozen ballistic limit equations that are based on results from thousands of hypervelocity impact tests conducted by NASA on ISS shielding and other hardware, and on results from numerical simulations of impacts.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

Ditching Investigation of a 1/14-Scale Model of the Northrop C-125 Airplane

An investigation of a 1/14-scale dynamically similar model of the Northrop C-125 airplane was made to determine the ditching characteristics and proper ditching technique for the airplane. Various conditions of damage, landing attitude, flap setting, and speed were investigated. The behavior of the model was determined from visual observations, motion-picture records, and time-history deceleration records. The results of the investigation are presented in table form, photographs, and curves. It was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at a nose-high landing attitude (near 8 deg) with flaps full down. The fixed landing gear will cause the airplane to dive. The fuselage will be damaged and will probably flood rapidly. Longitudinal decelerations will be about 4g and the length of landing run will be about two fuselage lengths. If the main landing gear could be jettisonable or retractable the ditching characteristics would be greatly improved.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗

The effects of receiver tracking phase error on the performance of the concatenated Reed-Solomon/Viterbi channel coding system

Analytical and experimental results are presented of the effects of receiver tracking phase error, caused by weak signal conditions on either the uplink or the downlink or both, on the performance of the concatenated Reed-Solomon (RS) Viterbi channel coding system. The test results were obtained under an emulated S band uplink and X band downlink, two way space communication channel in the telecommunication development laboratory of JPL with data rates ranging from 4 kHz to 20 kHz. It is shown that, with ideal interleaving, the concatenated RS/Viterbi coding system is capable of yielding large coding gains at very low bit error probabilities over the Viterbi decoded convolutional only coding system. Results on the effects of receiver tracking phase errors on the performance of the concatenated coding system with antenna array combining are included.

Liu, K. Y.↗

Iddingsite in the Nakhla meteorite: TEM study of mineralogy and texture of pre-terrestrial (Martian?) alterations

Rusty-colored veinlets and patches in the Nakhla meteorite, identified as iddingsite, are pre-terrestrial. The rusty material is iddingsite (smectites + hematite + ferrihydrite); like terrestrial iddingsites, it probably formed during low-temperature interaction of olivine and water. Fragments of rusty material with host olivine were removed from thin sections of Nakhla with a tungsten needle. Fragments were embedded in epoxy, microtomed to 100 nanometers thickness, and mounted on Cu grids. Phase identifications were by Analytical Electron Microscopy/Energy Dispersive X-ray Analysis (EM/EDX) standardless chemical analyses (for silicates), electron diffraction (hematite and ferrihydrite), and lattice fringe imaging. This iddingsite in Nakhla is nearly identical to some formed on Earth, suggesting similar conditions of formation on the Shergottites-Nakhlites-Chassigny (SNC) meteorite parent planet. A more detailed account of the results is presented.

Treiman, Allan H.↗

Manual discrimination of force

Optimal design of human-machine interfaces for teleoperators and virtual-environment systems which involve the tactual and kinesthetic modalities requires knowledge of the human's resolving power in these modalities. The resolution of the interface should be appropriately matched to that of the human operator. We report some preliminary results on the ability of the human hand to distinguish small differences in force under a variety of conditions. Experiments were conducted on force discrimination with the thumb pushing an interface that exerts a constant force over the pushing distance and the index finger pressing against a fixed support. The dependence of the sensitivity index d' on force increment can be fit by a straight line through the origin and the just-noticeable difference (JND) in force can thus be described by the inverse of the slope of this line. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was measured by varying the a priori probabilities of the two alternatives, reference force and reference force plus an increment, in one-interval, two-alternative, forced-choice experiments. When plotted on normal deviate coordinates, the ROC's were roughly straight lines of unit slope, thus supporting the assumption of equal-variance normal distributions and the use of the conventional d' measure. The JND was roughly 6-8 percent for reference force ranging from 2.5 to 10 newtons, pushing distance from 5 to 30 mm, and initial finger-span from 45 to 125 mm. Also, the JND remained the same when the subjects were instructed to change the average speed of pushing from 23 to 153 mm/sec. The pushing was terminated by reaching either a wall or a well, and the JND's were essentially the same in both cases.

Pang, Xiao-Dong↗

Observations of Plasma Transient on the Lobe Field Line During the Substorm. Interball Tail Observations on October 3, 1995

On October 3, 1995 Interball Tail spacecraft was located on tail lobe field lines. Solar wind conditions monitored by WIND and Getail spacecraft were quiet stable. During the time of operation of SCA-1 plasma spectrometer typical plasma mantle is observed. However, at approx. 15:07 UT strong plasma transient with duration of approx. 10 minutes was detected. We found that magnetic field profile of this plasma transient correlates well with ground based H component of magnetic field measured by Tixie Bay station. Ground base data indicates that this transient is observed during strong substorm. We argue that this transient is probably more dense mantle plasma which can be observed at the Interball Tail location provided that the current on the magnetopause is depressed. This depression probably reflects response of the tail magnetopause to changing of the global current system of the magnetosphere caused by the substorm.

Avanov, L. A.↗

TURBOMAT: A Probabilistic Turbomachinery Aeroelastic Analysis Tool

An integration of aeroelastic analysis procedures with probabilistic analysis methods enables us to design safe reliable engines with quantified reliability. Towards this goal, a graphical user interface (GUI) based tool that integrates the codes Aeroelastic analysis of propfans (ASTROP2) and Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) is developed. The tool entitled TURBOMachinery Aeroelastic Analysis Tool (TURBOMAT), is developed utilizing the MATrix Laboratory (Matlab) Guide (Graphical User Interface Development) tool box. TURBOMAT provides a user friendly computational environment for rapid assessment of Turbomachinery blades flutter characteristics, subjected to uncertain loading conditions with variability in material and aerodynamic properties. The tool is seen as an education tool for new students and young engineers starting their careers in structural Aeroelasticity who want to learn and understand aeroelastic aspects of turbomachinery components, fans, compressors and turbines, including uncertainties in loading and material properties.A typical fan blade configuration geometry was chosen to demonstrate the tool. The results are presented in the form of probabilistic density function (PDF), the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and sensitivity factors. Both first order fast probability integration (FPI) and the Monto Carlo (MC) techniques are used in the analysis and compared. The tool enabled us to quantify blade flutter reliability as well as the ranking of uncertain variables and their importance to blade flutter response.

Aeroelastic Analysis↗

The Sensitivity of US Wildfire Occurrence to Pre-Season Soil Moisture Conditions Across Ecosystems

It is well accepted that drought and low moisture conditions are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state has been challenging due to a lack of soil moisture observations at an appropriate spatial scale. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined in a predictive algorithm with the US Forest Service’s Fire-Occurrence Database. We estimate a relationship between historic surface moisture and wildfire occurrence to produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area at 0.25-degree resolution for the contiguous United States by land-cover classification. Cross-validation indicates increased frequency of smaller fires when the months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This demonstrates that assimilated GRACE data holds information that could aid national-scale fire potential assessments for early decision-support.

Fire-Occurrence database↗

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization↗

Polar Vortex Conditions During the 1995-96 Arctic Winter: MLS CL0 and HNO(sub 3)

Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements of lower stratospheric CLO and HNO(sub 3) during the 1995-96 Arctic winter are presented. The 1995-96 Arctic winter was both colder and more persistently cold than usual, leading to an enhancement in lower stratospheric CLO of greater magnitude, vertical extent, and duration than has been previously observed in the Arctic. Vortex concentrations of HNO(sub 3) in mid-December were large due to diabetic decent. Trajectory calculations indicate that localized severe depletions of gas-phase HNO(sub 3) in mid-February and early March did not arise from intrainment of midlatitude air into the vortex and were therefore probably related to polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation.

Microwave Limb Sounder MLS CLO HNO3↗

Frequency and Time Domain Modeling of Acoustic Liner Boundary Conditions

As part of a research program directed at the acoustics of advanced subsonic propulsion systems undertaken at NASA Langley, Duke University was funded to develop a boundary condition model for bulk-reacting nacelle liners. The overall objective of the Langley program was to understand and predict noise from advanced subsonic transport engines and to develop related noise control technology. The overall technical areas included: fan and propeller source noise, acoustics of ducts and duct liners, interior noise, subjective acoustics, and systems noise prediction. The Duke effort was directed toward duct liner acoustics for the development of analytical methods to characterize liner behavior in both frequency domain and time domain. A review of duct acoustics and liner technology can be found in Reference [1]. At that time, NASA Langley was investigating the propulsion concept of an advanced ducted fan, with a large diameter housed inside a relatively short duct. Fan diameters in excess of ten feet were proposed. The lengths of both the inlet and exhaust portions of the duct were to be short, probably less than half the fan diameter. The nacelle itself would be relatively thin-walled for reasons of aerodynamic efficiency. The blade-passage frequency was expected to be less than I kHz, and very likely in the 200 to 300 Hz range. Because of the design constraints of a short duct, a thin nacelle, and long acoustic wavelengths, the application of effective liner technology would be especially challenging. One of the needs of the NASA Langley program was the capability to accurately and efficiently predict the behavior of the acoustic liner. The traditional point impedance method was not an adequate model for proposed liner designs. The method was too restrictive to represent bulk reacting liners and to allow for the characterization of many possible innovative liner concepts. In the research effort at Duke, an alternative method, initially developed to handle bulk reacting layers as described in Reference [2], was extended to apply to a broad range of liner types. This method included the effect of local gradients along the liner surface, and was particularly appropriate for situations with flow over the liner and grazing incidence acoustic fields. In order to utilize time domain computational methods to solve for the propfan acoustic field, corresponding liner boundary conditions were developed for time domain solutions rather than frequency domain solutions.

Bliss, Donald B.↗

Wallops Ship Surveillance System

Approved as a Wallops control center backup system, the Wallops Ship Surveillance Software is a day-of-launch risk analysis tool for spaceport activities. The system calculates impact probabilities and displays ship locations relative to boundary lines. It enables rapid analysis of possible flight paths to preclude the need to cancel launches and allow execution of launches in a timely manner. Its design is based on low-cost, large-customer- base elements including personal computers, the Windows operating system, C/C++ object-oriented software, and network interfaces. In conformance with the NASA software safety standard, the system is designed to ensure that it does not falsely report a safe-for-launch condition. To improve the current ship surveillance method, the system is designed to prevent delay of launch under a safe-for-launch condition. A single workstation is designated the controller of the official ship information and the official risk analysis. Copies of this information are shared with other networked workstations. The program design is divided into five subsystems areas: 1. Communication Link -- threads that control the networking of workstations; 2. Contact List -- a thread that controls a list of protected item (ocean vessel) information; 3. Hazard List -- threads that control a list of hazardous item (debris) information and associated risk calculation information; 4. Display -- threads that control operator inputs and screen display outputs; and 5. Archive -- a thread that controls archive file read and write access. Currently, most of the hazard list thread and parts of other threads are being reused as part of a new ship surveillance system, under the SureTrak project.

Smith, Donna C.↗