Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,225 records · Page 68

A non-commutative Bayes' theorem

Using a diagrammatic reformulation of Bayes' theorem, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of Bayesian inference in the setting of finite-dimensional C* -algebras. In other words, we prove an analogue of Bayes' theorem in the joint classical and quantum context. Our analogue is justified by recent advances in categorical probability theory, which have provided an abstract formulation of the classical Bayes' theorem. In the process, we further develop non-commutative almost everywhere equivalence and illustrate its important role in non-commutative Bayesian inversion. The construction of such Bayesian inverses, when they exist, involves solving a positive semidefinite matrix completion problem for the Choi matrix. This gives a solution to the open problem of constructing Bayesian inversion for completely positive unital maps acting on density matrices that do not have full support. In conclusion, we illustrate how the procedure works for several examples relevant to quantum information theory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effect of autoclave heat treatments on the mechanical properties of the prealloyed powder cobalt-base alloy HS-31

The cobalt-base alloy HS-31 was atomized into powder and then consolidated by extrusion or by hot isostatic pressing (HIP) in an autoclave over a range of temperatures spanning the solidus, approximately 2340 F. Extrusions were subsequently autoclaved at the same conditions. Extrusions autoclaved at 2420 F had a life of 300 hours at 1200 F and 30 hours at 1800 F at stresses that result in a 10-hour life with cast HS-31. Superior stress rupture lives of autoclaved material are probably related to the solidification structure at the grain boundaries as well as to the increased grain size.

Freche, J. C.↗

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Source record↗

Interactions among sulfide-oxidizing bacteria

The responses of different phototrophic bacteria in a competitive experimental system are studied, one in which primary factors such as H2S or light limited photometabolism. Two different types of bacteria shared one limited source of sulfide under specific conditions of light. The selection of a purple and a green sulfur bacteria and the cyanobacterium was based on their physiological similarity and also on the fact that they occur together in microbial mats. They all share anoxygenic photosynthesis, and are thus probably part of an evolutionary continuum of phototrophic organisms that runs from, strictly anaerobic physiology to the ability of some cyanobacteria to shift between anoxygenic bacterial style photosynthesis and the oxygenic kind typical of eukaryotes.

Poplawski, R.↗

Structural behavior of the space shuttle SRM Tang-Clevis joint

The space shuttle Challenger accident investigation focused on the failure of a tang-clevis joint on the right solid rocket motor. The existence of relative motion between the inner arm of the clevis and the O-ring sealing surface on the tang has been identified as a potential contributor to this failure. This motion can cause the O-rings to become unseated and therefore lose their sealing capability. Finite element structural analyses have been performed to predict both deflections and stresses in the joint under the primary, pressure loading condition. These analyses have demonstrated the difficulty of accurately predicting the structural behavior of the tang-clevis joint. Stresses in the vicinity of the connecting pins, obtained from elastic analyses, considerably exceed the material yield allowables indicating that inelastic analyses are probably necessary. Two modifications have been proposed to control the relative motion between the inner clevis arm and the tang at the O-ring sealing surface. One modification, referred to as the capture feature, uses additional material on the inside of the tang to restrict motion of the inner clevis arm. The other modification uses external stiffening rings above and below the joint to control the local bending in the shell near the joint. Both of these modifications are shown to be effective in controlling the relative motion in the joint.

Greene, W. H.↗

Structural behavior of the space shuttle SRM tang-clevis joint

The space shuttle Challenger accident investigation focused on the failure of a tang-clevis joint on the right solid rocket motor. The existence of relative motion between the inner arm of the clevis and the O-ring sealing surface on the tang has been identified as a potential contributor to this failure. This motion can cause the O-rings to become unseated and therefore lose their sealing capability. Finite element structural analyses have been performed to predict both deflections and stresses in the joint under the primary, pressure loading condition. These analyses have demonstrated the difficulty of accurately predicting the structural behavior of the tang-clevis joint. Stresses in the vicinity of the connecting pins, obtained from elastic analyses, considerably exceed the material yield allowables indicating that inelastic analyses are probably necessary. Two modifications have been proposed to control the relative motion between the inner clevis arm and the tang at the O-ring sealing surface. One modification, referred to as the capture feature, uses additional material on the inside of the tang to restrict motion of the inner clevis arm. The other modification uses external stiffening rings above and below the joint to control the local bending in the shell near the joint. Both of these modifications are shown to be effective in controlling the relative motion in the joint.

Greene, William H.↗

Probabilistic modeling for simulation of aerodynamic uncertainties in propulsion systems

The numerical simulation of the probabilistic aerothermodynamic response of propulsion system components to randomness in their environment was explored. The reusable rocket engine turbopumps were selected as an example because of the severe cryogenic environment in which they operate. The thermal and combustion instabilities, coupled with the engine thrust requirements from start up to shut down, lead to randomness in the flow variables and uncertainties in the aerodynamic loading. The probabilistic modeling of the turbopumps aerodynamic response was accomplished using the panel method coupled with fast probability integration methods. The aerodynamic response in the form of probabilistic rotor blades and splitter loading were predicted and the results presented for specified flow coefficient and rotor preswirl variance. Possible future applications of the aerothermodynamic probabilistic modeling in engine transient simulation, condition monitoring and engine life prediction are briefly discussed.

Hamed, Awatef↗

Probabilistic modeling for simulation of aerodynamic uncertainties in propulsion systems

The numerical simulation of the probabilistic aerothermodynamic response of propulsion system components to randomness in their environment was explored. The reusable rocket engine turbopumps were selected as an example because of the severe cryogenic environment in which they operate. The thermal and combustion instabilities, coupled with the engine thrust requirements from start up to shut down, lead to randomness in the flow variables and uncertainties in the aerosynamic loading. The probabilistic modeling of the turbopumps' aerodynamic response was accomplished using the panel method coupled with fast probability integration methods. The aerodynamic response in the form of probabilistic rotor blades and splitter loading were predicted and the results presented for specified flow coefficient and rotor preswirl variance. Possible future applications of the aerothermodynamic probabilistic modeling in engine transient simulation, condition monitoring, and engine life prediction are briefly discussed.

Hamed, A.↗

Large eddy simulation and direct numerical simulation of high speed turbulent reacting flows

The objective of this research is to make use of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) for the computational analyses of high speed reacting flows. Our efforts in the first phase of this research conducted within the past three years have been directed in several issues pertaining to intricate physics of turbulent reacting flows. In our previous 5 semi-annual reports submitted to NASA LaRC, as well as several technical papers in archival journals, the results of our investigations have been fully described. In this progress report which is different in format as compared to our previous documents, we focus only on the issue of LES. The reason for doing so is that LES is the primary issue of interest to our Technical Monitor and that our other findings were needed to support the activities conducted under this prime issue. The outcomes of our related investigations, nevertheless, are included in the appendices accompanying this report. The relevance of the materials in these appendices are, therefore, discussed only briefly within the body of the report. Here, results are presented of a priori and a posterior analyses for validity assessments of assumed Probability Density Function (PDF) methods as potential subgrid scale (SGS) closures for LES of turbulent reacting flows. Simple non-premixed reacting systems involving an isothermal reaction of the type A + B yields Products under both chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions are considered. A priori analyses are conducted of a homogeneous box flow, and a spatially developing planar mixing layer to investigate the performance of the Pearson Family of PDF's as SGS models. A posteriori analyses are conducted of the mixing layer using a hybrid one-equation Smagorinsky/PDF SGS closure. The Smagorinsky closure augmented by the solution of the subgrid turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) equation is employed to account for hydrodynamic fluctuations, and the PDF is employed for modeling the effects of scalar fluctuations. The implementation of the model requires the knowledge of the local values of the first two SGS moments. These are provided by additional modeled transport equations. In both a priori and a posteriori analyses, the predicted results are appraised by comparison with subgrid averaged results generated by DNS. Based on these results, the paths to be followed in future investigations are identified.

Adumitroaie, V.↗

Structure of magnetic field in the solar wind

This work is concerned with empirical data on magnetic field in the solar wind in frame of a concept of dissipative solar wind, developed in papers (Solar Wind 7 Conf., Pergamon Press, 1992, 165 and 1992 STEP/5th COSPAR Coll. Pergamon Press, 1994, 117; 235; 803). Interplanetary magnetic fields should be classified with respect to their origin. It is very important for all the theoretical problems from the necessity to specify correctly boundary and initial conditions: the magnetic field must be sewed with its source. One should select the field, connected directly with the Sun (stretched out from it), and the field of moving electric currents. It occured central in discussion about the velocity of Alfven waves, probably warming up the solar wind, relative to the Sun, the magnetic field and solar wind plasma. The selection problem corresponds to an inverse problem and obviously has no single solution. The dissipative model of the solar wind introduce the slipping and leakage of plasma relative to magnetic field. There are no 'interplanetary current sheets' in it. But temporal fluctuations from the filamentation of electric currents play the key role. As a whole, the new concept requires the re-interpretation of main objects in the interplanetary magnetic field.

Chertkov, A. D.↗

An Analysis of Spacecraft Localization from Descent Image Data for Pinpoint Landing on Mars and other Cratered Bodies Data Acquisition

A pinpoint landing capability will be a critical component for many planned NASA missions to Mars and beyond. Implicit in the requirement is the ability to accurately localize the spacecraft with respect to the terrain during descent. In this paper, we present evidence that a vision-based solution using craters as landmarks is both practical and will meet the requirements of next generation missions. Our emphasis in this paper is on the feasibility of such a system in terms of (a) localization accuracy and (b) applicability to Martian terrain. We show that accuracy of well under 100 meters can be expected under suitable conditions. We also present a sensitivity analysis that makes an explicit connection between input data and robustness of our pose estimate. In addition, we present an analysis of the susceptibility of our technique to inherently ambiguous configurations of craters. We show that probability of failure due to such ambiguity is becoming increasingly small.

landforms↗

Simulation of Stochastic Processes by Coupled ODE-PDE

A document discusses the emergence of randomness in solutions of coupled, fully deterministic ODE-PDE (ordinary differential equations-partial differential equations) due to failure of the Lipschitz condition as a new phenomenon. It is possible to exploit the special properties of ordinary differential equations (represented by an arbitrarily chosen, dynamical system) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equations (used to describe the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of joint probability distribution) in order to simulate stochastic processes with the proscribed probability distributions. The important advantage of the proposed approach is that the simulation does not require a random-number generator.

Zak, Michail↗

Comparisons of Characteristics of Magnetic Clouds and Cloud-Like Structures During 1995-2012

Using eighteen years (1995 - 2012) of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data (observed by the Wind spacecraft), solar activity (e.g. sunspot number: SSN), and the geomagnetic activity index (Dst), we have identified 168 magnetic clouds (MCs) and 197 magnetic cloud - like structures (MCLs), and we have made relevant comparisons. The following features are found during seven different periods (TP: Total period during 1995 - 2012, P1 and P2: first and second half period during 1995 - 2003 and 2004 - 2012, Q1 and Q2: quiet periods during 1995 - 1997 and 2007 - 2009, A1 and A2: active periods during 1998 - 2006 and 2010 - 2012). (1) During the total period the yearly occurrence frequency is 9.3 for MCs and 10.9 for MCLs. (2) In the quiet periods Q1 > Q1 and Q2 > Q2, but in the active periods A1 < A1 and A2 < A2. (3) The minimum Bz (Bzmin) inside of a MC is well correlated with the intensity of geomagnetic activity, Dstmin (minimum Dst found within a storm event) for MCs (with a Pearson correlation coefficient, c.c. = 0.75, and the fitting function is Dstmin = 0.90+7.78Bzmin), but Bzmin for MCLs is not well correlated with the Dst index (c.c. = 0.56, and the fitting function is Dstmin = -9.40+ 4.58 Bzmin). (4) MCs play a major role in producing geomagnetic storms: the absolute value of the average Dstmin ( MC = -70 nT) for MCs associated geomagnetic storms is two times stronger than that for MCLs ( MCL = -35 nT), due to the difference in the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) strength. (5) The SSN is not correlated with MCs ( TP, c.c. = 0.27), but is well associated with MCLs ( TP, c.c. = 0.85). Note that the c.c. for SSN vs. P2 is higher than that for SSN vs. P2. (6) Averages of IMF, solar wind speed, and density inside of the MCs are higher than those inside of the MCLs. (7) The average of MC duration (approx. = 18.82 hours) is approx. = 20 % longer than the average of MCL duration (approx. = 15.69 hours). (8) There are more MCs than MCLs in the quiet solar period, and more MCLs than MCs in the active solar period, probably due to the interaction between a MC and another significant interplanetary disturbance (including another MC) which could obviously change the character of a MC, but we speculate that some MCLs are no doubt due to other factors such as complex birth conditions at the Sun.

CME↗

Sensor Data Quality and Angular Rate Down-Selection Algorithms on SLS EM-1

The NASA Space Launch System Block 1 launch vehicle is equipped with an Inertial Navigation System (INS) and multiple Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGA) that are used in the Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) algorithms. The INS provides the inertial position, velocity, and attitude of the vehicle along with both angular rate and specific force measurements. Additionally, multiple sets of co-located rate gyros supply angular rate data. The collection of angular rate data, taken along the launch vehicle, is used to separate out vehicle motion from flexible body dynamics. Since the system architecture uses redundant sensors, the capability was developed to evaluate the health (or validity) of the independent measurements. A suite of Sensor Data Quality (SDQ) algorithms is responsible for assessing the angular rate data from the redundant sensors. When failures are detected, SDQ will take the appropriate action and disqualify or remove faulted sensors from forward processing. Additionally, the SDQ algorithms contain logic for down-selecting the angular rate data used by the GNC software from the set of healthy measurements. This paper explores the trades and analyses that were performed in selecting a set of robust fault-detection algorithms included in the GN&C flight software. These trades included both an assessment of hardware-provided health and status data as well as an evaluation of different algorithms based on time-to-detection, type of failures detected, and probability of detecting false positives. We then provide an overview of the algorithms used for both fault-detection and measurement down selection. We next discuss the role of trajectory design, flexible-body models, and vehicle response to off-nominal conditions in setting the detection thresholds. Lastly, we present lessons learned from software integration and hardware-in-the-loop testing.

Park, Thomas↗

A Coordinated Microstructural and Isotopic Study ofa Wark-Lovering Rim on a Vigarano CAI

We carried out a coordinated mineralogical and isotopic study of a Wark-Lovering (WL) rim on a Ca,Al-rich inclusion (CAI) from the reduced CV3 chondrite Vigarano. The outermost edge of the CAI mantle is mineralogically and texturally distinct compared to the underlying mantle that is composed of coarse, zoned melilite (Åk~10-60) grains. The mantle edge contains fine-grained gehlenite with hibonite and rare grossite that likely formed by rapid crystallization from a melt enriched in Ca and Al. These gehlenite and hibonite layers are surrounded by successive layers of spinel, zoned melilite (Åk~0-10), zoned diopside that grades outwards from Al,Ti-rich to Al,Ti-poor, and forsteritic olivine intergrown with diopside. These layered textures are indicative of sequential condensation of spinel, melilite, diopside, and forsterite onto hibonite. Anorthite occurs as a discontinuous layer that corrodes adjacent melilite and Al2 diopside, and appears to have replaced them, probably even later than the forsterite layer formation. Based on these observations, we conclude that the WL rim formation was initiated by flash melting and extensive evaporation of the original inclusion edge, followed by subsequent gas-solid reactions under highly dynamic conditions. All the WL rim minerals are 16O-rich (Δ17O = ~−23‰), indicating their formation in an 16O-rich nebular reservoir. Our Al-Mg measurements of hibonite, spinel, and diopside from the WL rim, as well as spinel and Al,Ti-diopside in the core, define a single, well-correlated isochron with an inferred initial 26Al/27Al ratio of (4.94 ± 0.12) × 10−5. This indicates that the WL rim formed shortly after the host CAI. In contrast, the lack of 26Mg excesses in the WL rim anorthite suggest its later formation or later isotopic disturbance in the solar nebula, after 26Al had decayed.

Jangmi Han↗

SURFACE FINISHING AND ELECTROLESS NICKEL PLATING OF ADDITIVELY MANUFACTURED (AM) METAL COMPONENTS

This study investigates the application of electroless nickel deposition on additively manufactured stainless steel samples. Current additive manufacturing (AM) technologies produce metal components with a rough surface. Rough surfaces generally exhibit fatigue characteristics, increasing the probability of initiating a crack or fracture to the printed part. For this reason, the direct use of as-produced parts in a finished product cannot be actualized, which presents a challenge. Post-processing of the AM parts is therefore required to smoothen the surface. This study analyzes chempolish (CP) and electropolish (EP) surface finishing techniques for post-processing AM stainless steel components CP has a great advantage in creating uniform, smooth surfaces regardless of size or part geometry EP creates an extremely smooth surface, which reduces the surface roughness to the sub-micrometer level. In this study, we also investigate nickel deposition on EP, CP, and as-built AM components using electroless nickel solutions. Electroless nickel plating is a method of alloy treatment designed to increase manufactured component's hardness and surface resistance to the unrelenting environment. The electroless nickel plating process is more straightforward than its counterpart electroplating.. We use low-phosphorus (2-5% P), medium-phosphorus (6-9% P), and high-phosphorus (10-13% P). These Ni deposition experiments were optimized using the L9 Taguchi design of experiments (TDOE), which compromises the prosperous content in the solution, surface finish, plane of the geometry, and bath temperature. The pre-and post-processed surface of the AM parts was characterized by KEYENCE Digital MicroscopeVHX-7000 and Phenom XL Desktop SEM. The experimental results show that electroless nickel deposition produces uniform Ni coating on the additively manufactured components up to 20 μm per hour. Mechanical properties of as-built and Ni coated AM samples were analyzed by applying a standard 10 N scratch test. Nickel coated AM samples were up to two times scratch resistant compared to the as-built samples. This study suggests electroless nickel plating is a robust viable option for surface hardening and finishing AM components for various applications and operating conditions.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, fatigue, chempol↗

A trait-based framework for linking microbial communities with carbon transformations under precipitation change

Droughts are common throughout the world. As the climate changes, droughts may become more frequent and intense. Still, scientists are uncertain about how drought will affect the natural world, particularly the bacteria, fungi, and other microbes that live in soils. These tiny life forms are crucial because they control the Earth’s flows of carbon and essential nutrients. Researchers at the University of California, Irvine, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory teamed up to study how the microbiome, or collection of bacteria and fungi in the soil, deals with drought. Since 2007, the researchers have used shelters with retractable roofs to prevent nearly half of normal rainfall from reaching grass and shrub ecosystems, and their soil microbiomes, in Southern California. The study team discovered that microbes have some clever tricks up their sleeve for surviving drought. When growing on dead grass as a food source, microbes ramp up production of specialized chemicals called osmolytes that keep their cells from drying out. But microbes growing on dead shrubs face another problem. Unlike grass, shrub leaves are a lousy food source. To digest and consume shrub leaves, microbes have to exude more enzymes, which act like biochemical chef knives that chop complex leaf molecules into bite-sized pieces. Carbon is the coin of the microbial realm, earned via enzyme action or slurping up dead plant juices. Microbes growing under normal conditions on tasty dead grass have it easy: they can spend most of their carbon currency on growth. With drought, life gets harder as microbes need to pay up for osmolytes and ramp down their growth. It gets worse with shrub leaves because microbes have to multi-task among growth, enzyme secretion, and osmolyte production. When drought hits, microbes on shrub leaves forgo the osmolytes, probably because losing the carbon revenue from enzyme investment would be a deal-breaker for survival. The next question tackled by the researchers asked how the genes controlling microbial lifestyles sort out across the tree of life. Most microbiologists thought these lifestyles would correspond to rather large branches on the tree. But the study team found that in fact, very closely related microbes differ in important and interesting ways. For example, bacteria that have nearly identical housekeeping genes respond distinctively to warming, rainfall, and plant chemistry. As a result, soil microbiomes are much richer in diversity than originally thought. And studying microbial diversity in much greater detail could open up many more possibilities for how microbial life deals with changing environmental conditions. Trying to understand microbial life without the fine details of genetic diversity is like trying to stream Netflix on a dial-up connection. By looking across the landscape, the researchers revealed that microbial diversity is absolutely critical for maintaining the planet’s flows of carbon and nutrients. The study team designed a new technology—microbial cages—for transplanting intact microbiomes. With the cages, the researchers could move microbiomes to novel environments and compare their ability to cycle carbon and nutrients. In some cases, performance tailed off when microbiomes found themselves in a new environment, but in other cases, performance rivaled or even exceeded that of the resident microbiome. And even the low performers eventually caught up to the native microbiomes if given sufficient time. These findings mean that microbiomes—at least in Southern California—may be resilient to climate shifts due to a high diversity of microbial lifestyles. Coping with heat and drought may literally be in their DNA. The last piece of the research puzzle, and a “Holy Grail” for microbial ecologists, is to forecast the behavior of diverse microbiomes. To meet this challenge, the study team developed new theory and computer models. For the first time, these models account for hundreds of different microbes and how their intricate lifestyles cope with drought. The models are starting to connect the tiniest microbes with the global cycles that sustain Earth’s farms, fields, and forests. With that connection, it will be easier for society to plan for a world with more droughts and other climate disruptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mantle redox evolution and the oxidation state of the Archean atmosphere

Current models predict that the early atmosphere consisted mostly of CO2, N2, and H2O, along with traces of H2 and CO. Such models are based on the assumption that the redox state of the upper mantle has not changed, so that volcanic gas composition has remained approximately constant with time. We argue here that this assumption is probably incorrect: the upper mantle was originally more reduced than today, although not as reduced as the metal arrest level, and has become progressively more oxidized as a consequence of the release of reduced volcanic gases and the subduction of hydrated, oxidized seafloor. Data on the redox state of sulfide and chromite inclusions in diamonds imply that the process of mantle oxidation was slow, so that reduced conditions could have prevailed for as much as half of the earth's history. To be sure, other oxybarometers of ancient rocks give different results, so the question of when the mantle redox state has changed remains unresolved. Mantle redox evolution is intimately linked to the oxidation state of the primitive atmosphere: A reduced Archean atmosphere would have had a high hydrogen escape rate and should correspond to a changing mantle redox state; an oxidized Archean atmosphere should be associated with a constant mantle redox state. The converses of these statements are also true. Finally, our theory of mantle redox evolution may explain why the Archean atmosphere remained oxygen-deficient until approximately 2.0 billion years ago (Ga) despite a probable early origin for photosynthesis.

NASA Discipline Number 52-30↗