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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Considerations for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Reactor Technology Readiness Level Advancement

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is a candidate in-space propulsion technology for crewed missions to Mars. An NTP engine relies on the use of a reactor as a heat exchanger to directly heat a hydrogen propellant which is expanded through a nozzle for high specific impulse (> 850s), high thrust (>15 klbf) propulsion. NTP reactor and engine technologies are currently being developed to enable a future NTP engine prototype demonstration. Technology readiness level (TRL) definitions are a useful tool to plan necessary technology advancement tasks as they provide guidance on expected development activities and necessary level of fidelity of test article or testing conditions for demonstration tasks. However, technology readiness definitions for an NTP reactor and related demonstration tasks have not yet been defined. This paper identifies relevant TRL definitions by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Department of Energy (DOE). Based on these definitions, preliminary recommendations on testing conditions and important parameters to consider for NTP reactor technology development planning are provided for TRL 1 - 6. As a part of this effort, functional characteristics and important performance parameters for the reactor are identified, as well as a summary of relevant literature which was considered when assessing development tasks capable of meeting TRL definition criteria.

nuclear thermal propulsion↗

Considerations for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Reactor Technology Readiness Level Advancement

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is a candidate in-space propulsion technology for crewed missions to Mars. An NTP engine relies on the use of a reactor as a heat exchanger to directly heat a hydrogen propellant which is expanded through a nozzle for high specific impulse (> 850s), high thrust (>15 klbf) propulsion. NTP reactor and engine technologies are currently being developed to enable a future NTP engine prototype demonstration. Technology readiness level (TRL) definitions are a useful tool to plan necessary technology advancement tasks as they provide guidance on expected development activities and necessary level of fidelity of test article or testing conditions for demonstration tasks. However, technology readiness definitions for an NTP reactor and related demonstration tasks have not yet been defined. This paper identifies relevant TRL definitions by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Department of Energy (DOE). Based on these definitions, preliminary recommendations on testing conditions and important parameters to consider for NTP reactor technology development planning are provided for TRL 1 - 6. As a part of this effort, functional characteristics and important performance parameters for the reactor are identified, as well as a summary of relevant literature which was considered when assessing development tasks capable of meeting TRL definition criteria.

nuclear thermal propulsion↗

Sensitivity study on the fin effect of thermocouple mounted on the heated surface under film boiling condition

In the reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) scenario, right after the power burst with the occurrence of departure from nucleate boiling (DNB), the cladding temperature quickly reaches its maximum and is maintained in a steady film boiling regime. Then, under limited heat transfer performance of film boiling, the local cooling effect by the thermocouple wire may not be neglected. A computational model is developed to estimate the local cooling effect of the thermocouple wire mounted on the cladding surface under film boiling condition. The model predicts the temperature profile along the cladding surface as physically expected and is verified against the benchmark problem. Sensitivity studies reveal the significant effects of the thickness of vapor film layer and the diameter of thermocouple on the temperature drop near the thermocouple, for they increase the heat transfer area to the liquid water region. The impact of film boiling heat transfer coefficient, however, is not significant, as the primary heat transfer mechanism near the thermocouple is the heat conduction to the wire. Future study will include the contribution of radiative heat transfer between the cladding surface and the vapor film layer, as well as a transient power history which represents an actual RIA scenario.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Influence of Phase-Change Materials and Operating Periods on Load Shifting for Thermal Storage Heat Pumps in European Climate Zones

As the reliance on heat pumps (HPs) for space conditioning increases worldwide, ex-tensive grid strains during utility peak hours are expected. Significant research efforts focus on investigating the use of integrated thermal energy storage (TES) systems to reduce peak energy demands. Conventionally, TES systems are often integrated to store and provide either cooling or heating, but not both. In this work, a single room-temperature phase-change material (PCM)-TES was integrated for dual-mode opera-tion with an R290 air-to-water 10.5 kW (3-Ton) HP. Two PCM melting temperatures (17°C, 22°C) were assessed to investigate their impact on system performance and cost reductions for Milan, Italy (4A); Barcelona, Spain (3A); and Oslo, Norway (6A). HP and HP-TES performance maps were generated using Modelica-based transient models and co-simulated with a prototype residential building using the Spawn of En-ergyPlusTM with simple rule-based controls. Our simulations indicate that PCM-17°C provided annual cost savings at higher peak-to-off-peak cost ratios, as the demand re-duction dominated the savings potential. The recharge energy costs and requirements became more dominant at lower cost ratios, making PCM-22°C more beneficial at lower cost ratios. Finally, despite Oslo's heating-dominated climate, the utility peak hours favor cooling demand reductions, making PCM-17°C more appealing. In all cases, the cost savings potential stabilized between 4 – 10% regardless of cost ratio, suggesting that system-level component and operation control optimization is required to maximize cost savings further.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Enhancing the mass resolving power of FRIB’s proposed high-voltage MR-ToF mass separator and spectrometer: Addressing non-ideal conditions

Multi-reflection time-of-flight mass separators and spectrometers (MR-ToF MSs) are indispensable tools at radioactive ion beam (RIB) facilities. These electrostatic ion beam traps act as highly selective mass separators and high-precision mass spectrometers for rare and exotic nuclei. When well-tuned and designed to minimize higher-order flight-time aberrations, state-of-the-art MR-ToF MSs approach, and slightly exceed, mass resolving powers of m/Δm = 10 6 . Achieving m/Δm ≥ 3 ⋅ 10 6 would provide the ability to resolve > 90 % of all known isomeric states with half-lives above 10 ms. However, the ability to mass separate in all practical setups is limited by non-ideal conditions which place such resolving powers out of reach. Here, to this end, we present a simulated analysis of these conditions in the newly proposed high-voltage MR-ToF MS for the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). It is expected to store ions at 30 keV beam energy and increase ion throughput by two orders of magnitude compared to current devices. Existing efforts to mitigate the effects of non-ideal conditions employed for current MR-ToF devices storing ions at < 3 keV beam energy will already enable mass resolving powers approaching 10 6 for FRIB’s high-voltage MR-ToF device. Simulations of newly proposed mitigation strategies show that even mass resolving powers approaching 10 7 might become feasible.

Electrostatic ion beam traps↗

Anatomy of a Turtle Confiscation: What to Expect When You're Not Expecting and Recommendations for Improving Outcomes

Turtles are being subjected to unprecedented collection for the illegal wildlife trade, but only a portion of the trade is detected. When confiscations do happen, wildlife agencies must decide what to do with those animals—euthanize them, place them in permanent captivity, or release them back into the wild. Here, we present a case study of a confiscation of .200 eastern box turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina) and our efforts to repatriate them back to the wild. Twentyfive percent of turtles died in captivity, and at least another 33% died during the soft-release phase. Approximately half of the confiscated turtles survived until they were released from their soft-release pen 9 months post-confiscation. For each phase, from the time turtles were seized until released, we describe our objectives, the challenges we encountered, and our recommendations for improving future turtle confiscations. Given the extended stressful conditions that confiscated turtles often experience before being seized, it is important to recalibrate our expectations regarding future confiscation outcomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling Air Handling Units to Create a Diverse Fault Dataset for FDD Innovation: Lessons Learned and Recommendations

As energy management and information systems (e.g., automated fault detection and diagnostics [AFDD] tools) become more prevalent in the commercial building stock, it is important to determine the effectiveness of these technologies by benchmarking their performance. The authors have been working to develop the largest publicly available dataset of HVAC fault datasets for performance benchmarking applications, covering the most common HVAC systems and designs including chiller plants, rooftop packaged units, dual duct air handling unit and single duct air handling units. This study covers the development, modeling, and validation of a synthetic fault dataset for the air handling unit (AHU), one of the most common HVAC configurations found in the commercial building stock. Despite this being a common system, real-world time series data are scarce and usually do not span a wide range of weather conditions. Due to this limitation, two detailed AHU models, which included the single duct AHU and dual duct AHU developed in the Modelica language and HVACSIM+ were employed to carry out annual simulations of numerous common sensor faults, mechanical faults, and control sequence faults. The fault inclusive data were then validated by comparing fault effects on system performance to expected symptoms. We summarize the nature of each fault and their impacts under different weather and operation conditions. We report some lessons learnt during the efforts of validating the high volumes of the FDD data sets. Finally, we highlight considerations for FDD developers that may want to use this dataset to assess their algorithms’ performance and their improvement over time.

Casillas, Armando↗

Experimental evidence of early-time saturation of the ion-Weibel instability in counterstreaming plasmas of CH, Al, and Cu

The collisionless ion-Weibel instability is a leading candidate mechanism for the formation of collisionless shocks in many astrophysical systems, where the typical distance between particle collisions is much larger than the system size. Multiple laboratory experiments aimed at studying this process utilize laser-driven (I≳10 15 W/cm 2 ), counterstreaming plasma flows (V≲ 2000 km/s) to create conditions unstable to Weibel-filamentation and growth. This technique intrinsically produces temporally varying plasma conditions at the midplane of the interaction where Weibel-driven B fields are generated and studied. Experiments discussed herein demonstrate robust formation of Weibel-driven B fields under multiple plasma conditions using CH, Al, and Cu plasmas. Linear theory based on benchmarked radiation-hydrodynamic FLASH calculations is compared with Fourier analyses of proton images taken ~5–6 linear growth times into the evolution. Our new analyses presented here indicate that the low-density, high-velocity plasma-conditions present during the first linear-growth time (~300–500 ps) sets the spectral characteristics of Weibel filaments during the entire evolution. It is shown that the dominant wavelength (~300 μm) at saturation persists well into the nonlinear phase, consistent with theory under these experimental conditions. However, estimates of B-field strength, while difficult to determine accurately due to the path-integrated nature of proton imaging, are shown to be in the ~10–30 T range, an order of magnitude above the expected saturation limit in homogenous plamas but consistent with enhanced B fields in the midplane due to temporally varying plasma conditions in experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Test Facility Simulation Results for Aerospace Loss-of-Lubrication of Spur Gears

Prior to receiving airworthiness certification, extensive testing is required during the development of rotary wing aircraft drive systems. Many of these tests are conducted to demonstrate the drive system's ability to operate at extreme conditions, beyond that called for in the normal to maximum power operating range. One of the most extreme tests is referred to as the loss-of-lubrication or run dry test. During this test, the drive system is expected to last at least 30 min without failure while the primary lubrication system is disabled for predetermined, scripted flight conditions. Failure of this test can lead to a partial redesign of the drive system or the addition of an emergency lubrication system. Either of these solutions can greatly increase the aircraft drive system cost and weight and extend the schedule for obtaining airworthiness certification. Recent work at NASA Glenn Research Center focused on performing tests, in a relevant aerospace environment, to simulate the behavior of spur gears under loss-of-lubrication conditions. Tests were conducted using a test facility that was used in the past for spur gear contact fatigue testing. A loss-oflubrication test is initiated by shutting off the single into mesh lubricating jet. The test proceeds until the gears fail and can no longer deliver the applied torque. The observed failures are typically plastically deformed gear teeth, due to the high tooth temperatures, that are no longer in mesh. The effect of several different variables to gear tooth condition during loss-of-lubrication have been tested such as gear pitch, materials, shrouding, lubrication condition, and emergency supplied mist lubrication in earlier testing at NASA. Recent testing has focused on newer aerospace gear steels and imbedding thermocouples in the shrouding to measure the air-oil temperatures flung off the gear teeth. Along with the instrumented shrouding, an instrumented spur gear was also tested. The instrumented spur gear had five thermocouples installed at different locations on the gear tooth and web. The data from these two types of measurements provided important information as to the thermal environment during the loss-of-lubrication event. This data is necessary to validate on-going modeling efforts.

Gears↗

Correcting the PFNS for more consistent fission modeling

For FY20, we had a deliverable to write a report detailing efforts to simultaneously evaluate both the prompt neutron multiplicity, $\overline{ν}$, and the prompt neutron fission neutron spectrum, PFNS, using CGMF. CGMF is the LANL-developed fission fragment decay code that consistently evaporates prompt neutrons and γ rays using the Hauser-Feshbach statistical theory of compound reactions. The decay begins by constructing the initial conditions of the fission fragments, then decaying each one from the excited state by neutrons and γ rays, conserving energy, momentum, spin, and parity in each step of the emission. The initial conditions of the fragments, along with the multiplicity, energy, and direction of each emitted neutron or γ ray, are recorded, allowing for the full reconstruction of the fission event. These event histories allow us to reconstruct average quantities, as well as correlations between observables, that can be compared with experimental or evaluated data. In that initial report, although there was already a favorable comparison between $\overline{ν}$ from CGMF, experiment, and the current ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation, we showed that there was still significant work to be done to improve the PFNS from CGMF. Historically, the PFNS is calculated too soft by Hauser-Feshbach fission models, and CGMF is no exception. The incorrect shape presents a significant challenge in fission modeling, including for our understanding of the fission process and for our ability to consistently calculate and predict a variety of prompt fission observables (such as fission fragment initial conditions, neutron and γ-ray multiplicities and energies, and the correlations between all observables). In our companion report, we detail our success in using CGMF to evaluate $\overline{ν}$. Although not included in the optimization explicitly, we also keep the initial conditions of the fission fragments physical, along with reproducing reasonably well the neutron multiplicity distribution. As we would expect from the sensitivities calculations from, the average neutron energies change very little from the $\overline{ν}$ optimization along with the PFNS (as will be shown in Sec. 2.6). The conclusion was that the global and statistical models would have to be investigated instead of just the fission fragment initial conditions (as is sufficient for $\overline{ν}$). This report details those efforts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Performance of an alpha-vane and pitot tube in simulated heavy rain environment

Experimental tests were conducted in the UDRI Environmental Wind/Rain Tunnel to establish the performance of an alpha-vane, that measures angle of attack, in a simulated heavy rain environment. The tests consisted of emersing the alpha-vane in an airstream with a concurrent water spray penetrating vertically through the airstream. The direction of the spray was varied to make an angle of 5.8 to 18 deg with the airstream direction in order to simulate the conditions that occur when an aircraft lands in a heavy rain environment. Rainrates simulated varied from 1000 to 1200 mm/hr which are the most severe ever expected to be encountered by an aircraft over even a 30 second period. Tunnel airspeeds ranged from 85 to 125 miles per hour. The results showed that even the most severe rainrates produced a misalignment in the alpha-vane of only 1 deg away from the airstream direction. Thus for normal rain conditions experienced by landing aircraft no significant deterioration in alpha-vane performance is expected.

Luers, J. K.↗

Performing Mineral Hydration Experiments in the CheMin Diffractometer on Mars

Laboratory work is the cornerstone of experimental planetary geochemistry, mineralogy, and petrology, but much is to be gained by "experiments" while on a planet surface. Earth-bound experiments are often limited in ability to control multiple conditions relevant to planetary bodies (e.g. cycles in temperature and vapor pressure of water), but observations on-planet provide a unique opportunity where conditions are native to the planet and those affected by sampling and analysis can be constrained. The CheMin XRD instrument on Mars Science Laboratory has been able to test mineral hydration in samples held for up to 300 Mars days (sols). Clay minerals sampled at Yellowknife Bay early in the mission had both collapsed (10 Å) and expanded (13.2 Å) basal spacing. Collapsed interlayers were expected, but larger spacing was not; it was uncertain whether larger basal spacing would collapse on prolonged exposure to warmer conditions inside CheMin. Observation over several hundred sols showed no collapse, with the conclusion that expanded interlayer spacing was due to partial intercalation by metal-hydroxyl groups that resist dehydration. More recently, a sample of the Murray Formation, Oudam, provided the first XRD detection of gypsum and a chance to observe gypsum stability. Laboratory work suggests gypsum should be stable at Mars surface conditions, and indeed gypsum has been observed from orbit at higher latitudes and in thick veins at Yellowknife Bay by Mastcam reflectance spectra. Laboratory experiments have shown that on dehydration the gypsum would not become X-ray amorphous but would rather transform to a water-deficient bassanite structure. Over a period of 37 sols, it was observed that the Oudam sample in CheMin transformed from an assemblage of gypsum+anhydrite, to gypsum+bassanite+anhydrite, and finally to bassanite+anhydrite. Mg-sulfates were also anticipated but have not been observed in CheMin despite chemical evidence for their presence. Unlike gypsum, hydrated Mg-sulfates can transition to an X-ray amorphous form. Crystalline Mg-sulfates are expected higher in the section on Mount Sharp, where it should be possible to determine whether they persist or are destabilized after sampling, providing further insight into hydrous mineral stability at Mars near-equatorial conditions.

Vaniman, D. T.↗

Effect of thermal conditioning on the initiation threshold of secondary high‐explosives

While most performance metrics of high–explosive (HE) based devices like detonation velocity, detonation pressure, and energy output are expected to degrade over time, the evolution of initiation threshold appears less clear, with claims of both increasing and decreasing trends in threshold having been made in the literature. This work analyzes D–optimally designed sequential binary test data for a few thermally conditioned porous–powder and polymer–bonded HE initiator systems using a Bayesian likelihood method employing the probit regression model. Here we find that in most cases the initiation threshold decreases (i.e., sensitivity increases) upon accelerated thermal conditioning. However, such results are nuanced and influenced by factors like the contact area of initiating stimulus, HE characteristics like density and specific surface area, as well as possible thermally induced changes to other materials and interfaces involved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

In Situ Wind and Turbulence Measurements in a Field of Full-Size Parabolic Trough Solar Collectors

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is a promising method for using Solar power for electricity generation with thermal energy storage. One of the primary drivers of structural design costs of CSP collector structures is wind loading. To date, the design of these structures has relied on data from wind tunnels that do not adequately capture the dynamic effects observed at scale. NREL initiated a field measurement campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) powerplant that uses parabolic troughs as solar collectors. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs, providing insights on structural dynamic response, and generating a first-of-a-kind, comprehensive, high-resolution wind-loading dataset available for validating simulations of wind loading on collector structures. The measurements at NSO consist of Sonic anemometers on masts at different heights to characterize the incoming flow and conditions within and above the trough field, in combination with a Doppler Lidar scanning the horizontal plane above the troughs. The wind measurements at NSO have been continuously operating since October 2021 and provide a year-long dataset characterizing wind and turbulence conditions. The structural load measurements start in November 2022 and will complement the wind measurements. In this poster, we present first results of the wind measurement campaign by highlighting days with different atmospheric flow conditions. We identified three main factors altering the flow over the parabolic troughs: Wind speed, wind direction, and the angle of the parabolic troughs. The highest loads are expected when the wind blows perpendicular to the trough rows. In this case, the first rows experience the highest loads and block the subsequent rows, creating conditions with decreased wind speed and enhanced turbulence within the trough field. Also, turbulent length scales change. These affected conditions produce unique load cases on the structures that will be captured by the load measurements. If the wind blows along the trough rows, wind and turbulence conditions are less influenced by the troughs.

atmospheric turbulence↗

In Situ Wind and Turbulence Measurements in a Field of Full-Size Parabolic Trough Collectors

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is a promising method for using Solar power for electricity generation with thermal energy storage. One of the primary drivers of structural design costs of CSP collector structures is wind loading. To date, the design of these structures has relied on data from wind tunnels that do not adequately capture the dynamic effects observed at scale. NREL initiated a field measurement campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) powerplant that uses parabolic troughs as solar collectors. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs, providing insights on structural dynamic response, and generating a first-of-a-kind, comprehensive, high-resolution wind-loading dataset available for validating simulations of wind loading on collector structures. The measurements at NSO consist of Sonic anemometers on masts at different heights to characterize the incoming flow and conditions within and above the trough field, in combination with a Doppler Lidar scanning the horizontal plane above the troughs. The wind measurements at NSO have been continuously operating since October 2021 and provide a year-long dataset characterizing wind and turbulence conditions. The structural load measurements start in November 2022 and will complement the wind measurements. In this poster, we present first results of the wind measurement campaign by highlighting days with different atmospheric flow conditions. We identified three main factors altering the flow over the parabolic troughs: Wind speed, wind direction, and the angle of the parabolic troughs. The highest loads are expected when the wind blows perpendicular to the trough rows. In this case, the first rows experience the highest loads and block the subsequent rows, creating conditions with decreased wind speed and enhanced turbulence within the trough field. Also, turbulent length scales change. These affected conditions produce unique load cases on the structures that will be captured by the load measurements. If the wind blows along the trough rows, wind and turbulence conditions are less influenced by the troughs.

concentrated solar power↗

NASA Occupant Protection Standards Development

Current National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) occupant protection standards and requirements are based on extrapolations of biodynamic models, which were based on human tests performed under pre-Space Shuttle human flight programs where the occupants were in different suit and seat configurations than is expected for the Multi Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and Commercial Crew programs. As a result, there is limited statistical validity to the occupant protection standards. Furthermore, the current standards and requirements have not been validated in relevant spaceflight suit, seat configurations or loading conditions. The objectives of this study were to develop new standards and requirements for occupant protection and rigorously validate these new standards with sub-injurious human testing. To accomplish these objectives we began by determining which critical injuries NASA would like to protect for. We then defined the anthropomorphic test device (ATD) and the associated injury metrics of interest. Finally, we conducted a literature review of available data for the Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint New Technology (THOR-NT) ATD to determine injury assessment reference values (IARV) to serve as a baseline for further development. To better understand NASA s environment, we propose conducting sub-injurious human testing in spaceflight seat and suit configurations with spaceflight dynamic loads, with a sufficiently high number of subjects to validate no injury during nominal landing loads. In addition to validate nominal loads, the THOR-NT ATD will be tested in the same conditions as the human volunteers, allowing correlation between human and ATD responses covering the Orion nominal landing environment and commercial vehicle expected nominal environments. All testing will be conducted without the suit and with the suit to ascertain the contribution of the suit to human and ATD responses. In addition to the testing campaign proposed, additional data analysis is proposed to mine existing human injury and response data from other sources, including military volunteer testing, automotive Crash Injury Research Engineering Network (CIREN), and IndyCar impact and injury data. These data sources can allow a better extrapolation of the ATD responses to off-nominal conditions above the nominal range that can safely be tested. These elements will be used to develop injury risk functions for each of the injury metrics measured from the ATD. These risk functions would serve as the basis for the NASA standards. Finally, we propose defining standard test methodology for evaluating future spacecraft designs against the IARVs, including developing a star-rating system to allow crew safety comparisons between vehicles.

Somers, Jeffrey T.↗

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven analysis of relight variability of jet fuels induced by turbulence

For safety purposes, reliable reignition of aircraft engines in the event of flame blow-out is a critical requirement. Typically, an external ignition source in the form of a spark is used to achieve a stable flame in the combustor. However, such forced turbulent ignition may not always successfully relight the combustor, mainly because the state of the combustor cannot be precisely determined. Uncertainty in the turbulent flow inside the combustor, inflow conditions, and spark discharge characteristics can lead to variability in sparking outcomes even for nominally identical operating conditions. Prior studies have shown that of all the uncertain parameters, turbulence is often dominant and can drastically alter ignition behavior. For instance, even when different fuels have similar ignition delay times, their ignition behavior in practical systems can be completely different. In practical operating conditions, it is challenging to understand why ignition fails and how much variation in outcomes can be expected. The focus of this work is to understand relight variability induced by turbulence for two different aircraft fuels, namely Jet-A and a variant named C1. A detailed, previously developed simulation approach is used to generate a large number of successful and failed ignition events. Using this data, the cause of misfire is evaluated based on a discriminant analysis that delineates the difference between turbulent initial conditions that lead to ignition or failure. From the discriminant analysis, a compressed sensing algorithm is then applied to help pinpoint the locations of relevant turbulent features. Findings from the discriminant analysis are confirmed with the time history of near kernel properties. Next, a clustering strategy is used to identify ignition and misfire modes. With this approach, it was determined that the cause of ignition failure is different for the two fuels. While it was found that Jet-A is influenced by fuel entrainment, C1 was found to be more sensitive to small scale turbulence features. Finally, a larger variability is found in the ignition modes of C1, which can be subject to extreme events induced by kernel breakdown.

42 ENGINEERING↗