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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty for Western North America

Abstract Climate change research uses an ensemble of general circulation model runs (GCMs-runs) to predict future climate under uncertainties. To reduce computational costs, this study selects representative GCM-runs (RGCM-runs) for Western North America (WNA) based on their performance in replicating historical climate conditions from 1981 to 2005 and projecting future changes from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100. This evaluation is conducted under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. By using an envelope-based selection technique and a multi-objective distance-based approach, we identify four RGCM-runs per RCP representing diverse climatic conditions, including wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, and dry-cold. Compared to the full-set, these selected runs show a decreased mean absolute error (MAE) between the reference and RGCM-runs concerning the monthly average mean air temperature (T̄) and precipitation (P̄). For RCP4.5, T̄ MAE is 0.45 (vs. 0.58 in the full-set) and P̄ MAE is 0.31 (vs. 0.42). For RCP8.5, T̄ MAE is 0.51 (vs. 0.75) and P̄ MAE is 0.25 (vs. 0.36). The lower MAE values in the RGCM-run set indicate closer alignment between predicted and reference values, making the RGCM-run suitable for climate impact assessments in the region.

Water Resources↗

Exploring Acceleration Schemes for Nonlinear Heat Equations in Fusion Reactor Modeling

Plasma modeling inside a tokamak reactor poses a challenging and often times computationally expensive endeavor. The process of running these simulations has the potential to increase the predictive capabilities of these models. Here we investigate the effect particular acceleration schemes, mainly Anderson Acceleration, have on a nonlinear transport equation solver, Tango, developed by Parker et al. We show that Anderson acceleration offers a method for decreasing the computational cost through a test problem developed by Shestakov et al, which shows promise towards utilizing Anderson Acceleration in complex transport simulations

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Multi-Instance learning Framework for Seismic Detectors

In this report, we construct and test a framework for fusing the predictions of a ensemble of seismic wave detectors. The framework is drawn from multi-instance learning and is meant to improve the predictive skill of the ensemble beyond that of the individual detectors. We show how the framework allows the use of multiple features derived from the seismogram to detect seismic wave arrivals, as well as how it allows only the most informative features to be retained in the ensemble. The computational cost of the "ensembling" method is linear in the size of the ensemble, allowing a scalable method for monitoring multiple features/transformations of a seismogram. The framework is tested on teleseismic and regional p-wave arrivals at the IMS (International Monitoring System) station in Warramunga, NT, Australia and the PNSU station in University of Utah's monitoring network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Peridynamic Model for Single-Layer Graphene Obtained from Coarse Grained Bond Forces

An ordinary state-based peridynamic material model is proposed for single sheet graphene. The model is calibrated using coarse grained molecular dynamics simulations. The coarse graining method allows the dependence of bond force on bond length to be determined, including the horizon. The peridynamic model allows the horizon to be rescaled, providing a multiscale capability and allowing for substantial reductions in computational cost compared with molecular dynamics. The calibrated peridynamic model is compared to experimental data on the deflection and perforation of a graphene monolayer by an atomic force microscope probe.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Revisiting Multi-Material Composite Structures with Homogenized Composite Properties

Composite structures inherently develop residual stresses during their curing process. Driven predominately by mismatched thermal strains between differing materials or ply orientations, but also affected by curing process phenomena like polymer shrinkage, these residual stresses can lead to failure within composite structures. There are several methods varying in complexity that can be used to model the development of residual stresses, all of which are capable of capturing sufficient detail to understand the residual stress state at the ply level. However, explicitly modeling all plies of a layup in a composite structure can be prohibitively expensive based on the number of plies, structure size, and required element size. The computational cost can be reduced through the homogenization of the composite layup without losing much fidelity of the overall response of the structure. The homogenization process reduces the many plies of a laminate to a single lamina that reduces complexity and increases the mesh size where a single element can span multiple plies. This report focuses on verification and validation efforts for a homogenization process using a suite of finite element simulations rather than an analytic solution derived from classical laminate theory. Initial verification using representative element volumes indicated there was minimal error in the homogenization process; however, this compounded to a small, but acceptable error in strip and split ring experimental composite structures. The error does under predict the residual stress state in the strip and split ring and should be accounted for when simulating composite structures with homogenized properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Preliminary Thermal-hydraulics and Selected Safety Analysis for Holos-Quad Reactor Design

This report presents thermal hydraulics and safety analyses of the 10 MWe Holos-Quad micro-reactor design developed by HolosGen LLC. These analyses were executed under steady-state and station black-out (SBO) transient conditions using the System Analysis Module (SAM), with a focus on ensuring peak fuel temperatures do not exceed the safety thresholds of 1,250°C for steady state normal operating conditions and 1,600°C for transient conditions. For steady-state temperature predictions, a coupled 1D fluid-to-3D solid heat conduction methodology was used. The steady-state simulations included a model of the central core region where power peaking occurs to predict the maximum steady-state fuel temperature, and a coarse-mesh full-core model to provide the initial condition for the consequent transient SBO decay heat removal simulation. The maximum fuel temperature predicted from the central core region simulations under the normal operating condition was 1,222°C, which is below the design limit 1,250°C. To simulate a SBO transient, a full core model was necessary because of the non-axial symmetric core design and heat loss from the outer core structures to the environment. To reduce the required computational costs, a novel scaled subassembly approach was used to model the full core domain. With the full core steady-state temperature distribution provided as the initial condition, the passive decay heat removal of the core was simulated with the scaled subassembly full core model under SBO transient conditions. This analysis showed that the peak fuel temperatures of the Holos-Quad core remained below their steady-state values during the transient, therefore much lower than the safety limit 1,600°C. This is mainly due to the large thermal inertia of the graphite matrix, relatively low power density, and the large surface-to-volume-ratio of the core. The preliminary analyses presented in this report confirm the inherent safety of the Holos-Quad micro-reactor thermal-hydraulics design, as the peak fuel temperatures under both normal and off-normal operational conditions remain within design and safety limits.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Vorticity Description of the Nuclear Cloud

We describe a model of the nuclear cloud in terms of the vorticity field associated with a buoyant vortex ring. A series of physical approximations are introduced that lower computational costs and render the model amenable for operational use. The determination of model parameters from the yield and emplacement of the weapon is also discussed.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Research Introduction [Slides]

In the topic of Reverse Time Imaging, we proposed a new IC to reduce computation cost but reserve image resolution for distributed sensor networks. For Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma, we analyzed fault stress state analysis at state scale, and we applied machine learning techniques to polarity picking and seismicity rate forecasting. The results provide better understanding of fault properties, stress field, and the relationships among fault, stress state, injections, and potential seismic hazards. Lastly, for Microseismic Monitoring, we detected and located 770 low-frequency events (5-50 Hz): (1) Shallow events are highly clustered, consistent with the pathway from injection well 13-10A to monitoring well; moment tensor inversion shows dominant tensile cracking; (2) Deep events are scattered and show migration pattern to the basement; moment tensors show that most events are shear cracks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gaussian Process Emulators for Volcanic Ash Dispersion Model Tephra2

It is necessary to predict volcanic ash deposition since falling ash is harmful to human activities. Because simulators built for this purpose are computationally expensive, it is popular to use statistical emulators for geophysical hazard analyses, where a large number of simulations are required. Gaussian stochastic process emulators are able to approximate expensive simulations in an accurate and efficient way. Using a relatively small number of simulation runs, a well-trained emulator can accurately predict simulation outputs at massive new input points in a few seconds. Under different explosive eruption conditions, we constructed Gaussian stochastic process emulators for Tephra2, a simulation tool for estimating the accumulation of volcanic ash over a region. Historical wind records are used as input wind data, without assuming a Gaussian wind speed profile or common wind direction among elevations. While there are several inputs for Tephra2, we use no more than three physically motivated variables as emulator inputs to reduce the computational cost of emulations. The emulator outputs predict the mass of tephra per unit area at 50281 grid points around a predetermined vent location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Model Development and Assessment of Flexible Heat Transfer Modeling Approaches

This report presents the modeling progress of a university consortium studying flexible modeling for turbulent heat transfer. In the context of advanced nuclear reactor design, where challenges include non-unity Prandtl fluids, free and mixed convection, and transitional flow, computational fluid dynamics methods are underutilized due to low confidence in modeling approaches and high computational cost. This report evaluates the performance of engineering CFD models in diabatic, buoyant turbulent flow. It finds that all turbulence models including several variants of the k-ε and k-ω models struggle to predict accurate turbulent momentum and heat transfer in such flows. The Nusselt numbers have been compared between the models and the DNS data, where calculations have been performed for each case and trends have shown a good agreement between DNS estimated Nusselt numbers and available correlations as well as experimental data. A novel DNS correlation for high Pr cases as they are transitioning from mixed convection to natural convection has been proposed. While Nusselt number errors relative to DNS range from 20% to 50%, the models capture similar trends to DNS with respect to Nusselt suppression and amplification under varying levels of buoyancy effect. This report also highlights model form error as a significant contributor to CFD predictions and proposes a framework for quantifying model error and improving confidence in CFD calculations. To improve the predictive capability of engineering CFD models, data-driven approaches for turbulence models are investigated. Theoretical frameworks based on the invariant tensor / vector basis neural networks for prediction of Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat fluxes are employed. The models are developed using direct numerical simulations data for forced convection flows of different fluids in vertical planar channel domain. The framework is implemented in spectral element solvers Nek5000 / nekRS and has shown a potential for future development and consideration of mixed convection flows.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Generation and Control of Self-Organized Nonlinear Kinetic Structures in High Energy Density Plasmas in the Presence of Intense Magnetic Fields and Ultrashort Laser Pulses

In the project we investigated mechanisms to sculpt phase space by controlling plasma instabilities. We found that linear theory, which applies in the initial growth phase of an instability, allows for initial conditions that can suppress instabilities. This provides a possible mechanism to release the energy available to an instability on demand. We developed various computational techniques that can reduce computational cost of simulations while maintaining or improving physical fidelity. We considered the Buneman instability in the presence of a ponderomotively driven plasma wave to examine the interplay between an instability and steady-state plasma response.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of an Optimized Gasoline Surrogate Formulation for PACE Experiments and Simulations

New powertrain solutions are needed to address societal challenges stemming in part from a transportation sector which relies heavily on combustion of conventional hydrocarbon fuels like gasoline. One way to advance new solutions is through predictive simulations. Predictive simulations can potentially limit the extent of experimental validations, reduce time spent in engineering design cycles, unlock new strategies for high efficiency combustion with power density, and minimize tailpipe emissions. However, the simulation tools currently available are either too computationally expensive, inadequate in their accuracy, or a combination of the two. A DOE-funded consortium of national laboratories called the Partnership to Advance Combustion Engines (PACE) seeks to address this gap by rapidly delivering new knowledge and tools which enable market-competitive powertrain solutions for light-duty vehicles. Approaches to modeling combustion in powertrain systems typically incorporate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations with chemical kinetic models. These CFD simulations generally use surrogate fuels featuring a limited number of existing components in a reduced kinetic model to limit computational costs. Such surrogate fuels often sacrifice matching several or more combustion and physical properties of the target gasoline fuel. Validation of surrogate fuels is also often only pursued for a small subset of standard metrics such as research or motor octane number (RON, MON). The purpose of this project is to develop an optimal E10 gasoline surrogate fuel suitable for tasks across PACE to facilitate rapid common analysis and progression toward consortium goals. This project received contributions from tasks led by eight PACE principal investigators. The project funding here reflects all tasks under Pitz, whose tasks also contributed to additional PACE projects. Based on the optimal gasoline surrogate fuel composition, a reduced chemical kinetic model will be shared with PACE researchers, industry, and the broader combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Advanced Ab Initio Methods for Nuclear Structure (Final Report)

Over the past decade, there has been enormous progress in the description of nuclear structure from first principles, using interactions from Chiral Effective Field Theory that are rooted in Quantum Chromodynamics, the fundamental theory of strong interactions, and many-body methods that solve the Schrödinger equation with systematically improvable approximations. Amongst those are the family of In-Medium Similarity Renormalization Group (IMSRG) framework developed by the PI and his co-workers. While these methods scale polynomially in the size N of the single-particle basis, computational efforts still grows dramatically as we increase the degrees of freedom for the nucleons by relaxing symmetries or introducing continuum couplings (see below), or as we push to improved truncations to provide precise inputs for experimental efforts, in particular in fundamental symmetry searches. In order to address this growing computational cost, one focus area of this award was the exploration of compression and factorization methods. The key to success or failure is the presence of low-rank structures within the matrix elements of NN and 3N interactions or the IMSRG evolution operator, and a means to reformulate the method that will let us exploit them.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Assessment of Sodium Thermal Stratification Models Utilizing the TSTF Benchmark

As a result of certain transient scenarios, a thermally stratified layer of liquid sodium can develop in the bulk coolant volumes of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). In addition to the effects a stratification layer has on the temperature of the heat transport system, a stratification layer can also influence the transition to and establishment of natural circulation flow, which plays an important role in passive cooling and the inherent safety of a pool-type SFR. Therefore, the ability to accurately capture thermal stratification phenomena is important when demonstrating the safety basis of a pool-type SFR during transient sequences. The present work assesses various computational models with different fidelities in their ability to predict thermal stratification in the upper plenum of an SFR. Each computational model will be assessed using the data generated at the Thermal Stratification Test Facility (TSTF) located at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Using measured flow rate and inlet temperature data, the measured temperature distributions of the tests are compared to the predictions of the lumped volume-based models in SAS4A/SASSYS-1, a 1D-based model in SAM, and a 3-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model using STAR-CCM+. The relative performance of the various computational methods is assessed with respect to key metrics such as bulk coolant temperature distribution and plenum exit temperature. A total of eight tests are analyzed, covering different combinations of flow rates (3 and 10 GPM) and upper internal structure (UIS) configurations (none, solid, porous, and open) The perfect mixing model of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 provides the highest accuracy when the flow rate is high and there is no UIS in the test vessel, as high flow rate injection promotes thermal mixing of the sodium in the test vessel. For most of the analyzed tests, the stratified volume model of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is able to predict the delay in the outlet temperature drop and temperature distribution in the test vessel by a small number of layers to represent thermal stratification. However, the stratified volume model can only simulate a maximum of three temperature layers within a volume and when a layer approaches the elevation of the outlet, the predicted outlet temperature can demonstrate rapid, non-physical changes. The 1-D axial mixing model of SAM provides results that agree reasonably well with the measured data in the prediction of the temporal evolution of the outlet temperature with the exception of the case with a high flow rate and no UIS. The SAM 1-D model has a similar level of accuracy to CFD results when it comes to predicting the outlet temperature. CFD shows overall good agreement in predicting the temperature distribution in the test vessel and outlet temperature. As CFD can model the test vessel geometry in detail, it performs well in the cases of complex geometries such as tests that included a UIS and internal flow through the UIS resulting in active mixing of the coolant in the test vessel. Each of the models discussed in the present work has the potential to be useful during the various stages of reactor design, analysis, and licensing. The lumped-volume approach can be applied for fast turnaround safety calculations to obtain overall reactor behavior during transients. The 1-D models provide improved accuracy when stratification is expected for a relatively low increase in the computational cost. The CFD model can be utilized for confirmatory analysis of the 1-D model, when experimental measurements are not available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Energy Frontier Research Centers: Center for the Computational Design of Functional Layered Materials (CCDM) August 1, 2014 - July 31, 2018; Center for Complex Materials from First Principles (CCM) August 1, 2018 - July 31, 2021 (Final Report)

The mission of the DOE Energy Frontier Research Centers CCDM (2014-2018) and CCM (2018-2021) was to theoretically develop, computationally apply, and experimentally validate electronic structure methods for all materials, with a focus on the complex materials, especially layered and two-dimensional materials, strongly-correlated materials, and liquid water. This was achieved by over 200 published journal articles authored by about 17 senior investigators from physics and chemistry and from theory, computation, and experiment, plus their collaborators. In particular, the Centers confirmed the predictive power of the SCAN (strongly constrained and appropriately normed) density functional, which was constructed to satisfy 17 known exact constraints and several appropriate norms. Without being fitted to real bonded systems, and at a modest computational cost, SCAN correctly predicted covalent, ionic, metallic, hydrogen, and van der Waals bonds in many challenging materials. SCAN gave an improved description of defects in semiconductors, surface properties of metals, seven phases of ice, liquid water, liquid and supercooled silicon, subtle structural distortions in ferroelectrics, formation energies and structural predictions for solids, and critical pressures for structural phase transitions. Perhaps most remarkably, SCAN correctly described some strongly-correlated materials that were previously believed to be beyond the reach of density-functional approximations. SCAN is the only density functional that correctly predicts the band gap closing under chemical doping of the cuprate high-temperature superconducting materials. SCAN also predicts a landscape of competing stripe and magnetic phases in the cuprates. For some materials with some codes, SCAN has convergence problems that are greatly reduced by the CCM-developed r 2 SCAN, without loss of accuracy or rigor. SCAN and r 2 SCAN still make some self-interaction error, which is greatly reduced by the CCDM/ CCM-developed local orbital scaling correction (LOSC). These Centers further proved that the fundamental energy gaps of a solid from an orbital energy difference and from total energy differences are the same for a large class of generalized Kohn-Sham (GKS) functionals, including SCAN and standard hybrid functionals, and that symmetry breaking arises when a dynamic density fluctuation drops to zero frequency. The Centers identified new mechanisms for catalysis in layered materials with ions intercalated between the layers, investigated charge density waves both in model systems and in real layered materials, studied changes of band gap with the number of layers, and explored topological ultrathin films, bent nanoribbons, and defects.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Fission with Exotic Nuclei (Abbreviated Report)

Nuclear fission is a key mechanism involved in the synthesis of heavy elements in the Cosmos and is the primary explanation for the stability of superheavy elements. Nevertheless, our knowledge of fission remains extremely fragmented. Most experiments have been conducted only on a tiny number of stable actinide nuclei and are often incomplete, leading to gaps in our basic understanding of the process. For many radioactive isotopes, basic fission data such as the charge or mass distribution of the fragments is unknown. These gaps cannot always be filled by simulation alone. Common fission models contain too many free parameters and lack predictive power. In contrast, the fundamental theory of fission under development at LLNL is much more predictive, but its current computational cost is too high to be used extensively for data evaluations. A unique window of opportunity to resolve these limitations has recently opened: the U.S. nuclear science community is ramping up major experimental programs at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB, the DOE flagship facility in low-energy nuclear science), and techniques from machine learning have shown great potential to simplify the use of a fundamental, quantum-mechanical theory of fission. This project has two components. On the experimental side, we acquired and deployed at the HIGS facility a new dual Frisch-Grid ionization chamber to measure correlated fragment-mass, kinetic energy, and angular distributions of fission fragments from induced fission. This new device was used to perform measurements of charge, mass and total kinetic energy of fission fragments in the photofission of 238 U and eight gamma-ray beam energies between 6.2 and 13 MeV, which allowed extracting high-precision independent yields for this reaction. The device was also used to perform measurements of the same quantities in the neutron-induced fission of 234 U with monoenergetic beams of energy between 5 and 8 MeV. In parallel, we collaborated with a team at Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) to perform a series of measurements of fission yields in inverse kinematics for the two isotopes of 236 U and 240 Pu. The experiment took place at the Grand Accélérateur National d’Ions Lourds in France in June 2023. The deployment of the VAMOS spectrometer with a new array called PISTA allowed determining the excitation energy of the fissioning system within 1 Mega-electronvolts. The second component of the project involved using deep neural networks to build fast and reliable emulators of our current fission models. In an invited paper published in Frontier in Physics, we showed that autoencoders could successfully compress nuclear wavefunctions in nuclear density functional theory. We achieved a dimensionality reduction of the order of two orders of magnitude while keeping the error in the total energy to less than 0.01%. In a second paper submitted to Physical Review Letters in June 2023 with our collaborators at CEA, we showed that variational autoencoders can learn the collective degrees of freedom driving the fission process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Feasibility of Using Fourier Neural Operators for 3D Elastic Seismic Simulations

Seismic simulations in three-dimensional (3D) Earth models are important in many of the seismological applications related to our lab’s mission, however, accurate high-fidelity simulations are computationally costly. We investigated the capabilities of the newly developed Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) to solve the 3D elastic wave equations for seismic simulations. We generated simulation data for training the FNO model, and analyzed its performance on various test cases, such as the performance with different number of training data, different resolutions, and on more canonical structures. We found the FNO model can reproduce 3D seismic simulations with high accuracy and ~169 times faster on a small spatial grid size of 16 x 16 x16. When applied on higher resolution data, we found that transfer learning with fine-tuning on a small amount of data achieves reasonable results. This feasibility study showed promising results for using FNO’s for 3D seismic simulations and represents the foundation of further research to develop this into a more mature approach for different seismological applications. The potential impact of this project will provide techniques for large-scale or real-time applications of solving PEDs in support of national lab’s programs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗