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At least 1,225 records · Page 68
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Sheath-accumulating Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection

Fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the drivers of strong space weather storms such as solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms. The connection between the space-weather-impacting solar wind disturbances associated with fast ICMEs at Earth and the characteristics of causative energetic CMEs observed near the Sun is a key question in the study of space weather storms, as well as in the development of practical space weather prediction. Such shock-driving fast ICMEs usually expand at supersonic speeds during the propagation, resulting in the continuous accumulation of shocked sheath plasma ahead. In this paper, we propose a “sheath-accumulating propagation” (SAP) model that describes the coevolution of the interplanetary sheath and decelerating ICME ejecta by taking into account the process of upstream solar wind plasma accumulation within the sheath region. Based on the SAP model, we discuss (1) ICME deceleration characteristics; (2) the fundamental condition for fast ICMEs at Earth; (3) the thickness of interplanetary sheaths; (4) arrival time prediction; and (5) the super-intense geomagnetic storms associated with huge solar flares. We quantitatively show that not only the speed but also the mass of the CME are crucial for discussing the above five points. The similarities and differences between the SAP model, the drag-based model, and the“snow-plow” model proposed by Tappin are also discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Potential Benefits of Handling Mixture Statistics via a Bi-Gaussian EnKF: Tests With All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiances

The meteorological characteristics of cloudy atmospheric columns can be very different from their clear counterparts. Thus, when a forecast ensemble is uncertain about the presence/absence of clouds at a specific atmospheric column (i.e., some members are clear while others are cloudy), that column's ensemble statistics will contain a mixture of clear and cloudy statistics. Such mixtures are inconsistent with the ensemble data assimilation algorithms currently used in numerical weather prediction. Hence, ensemble data assimilation algorithms that can handle such mixtures can potentially outperform currently used algorithms. In this study, we demonstrate the potential benefits of addressing such mixtures through a bi-Gaussian extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (BGEnKF). The BGEnKF is compared against the commonly used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using perfect model observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) with a realistic weather model (the Weather Research and Forecast model). Synthetic all-sky infrared radiance observations are assimilated in this study. In these OSSEs, the BGEnKF outperforms the EnKF in terms of the horizontal wind components, temperature, specific humidity, and simulated upper tropospheric water vapor channel infrared brightness temperatures. This study is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of a Gaussian mixture model EnKF with a realistic weather model. Our results thus motivate future research toward improving numerical Earth system predictions though explicitly handling mixture statistics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cross‐Equatorial Surges Boost MJO's Southward Detour Over the Maritime Continent

Abstract The influence of the cross‐equatorial northerly surge (CES) on the eastward propagation of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is evaluated through the analysis of the column integrated moisture budget. Results show that the CES reinforces MJO's southward detour by increasing horizontal moisture convergence over the southern Maritime Continent (MC) region. Further analysis reveals that the zonal convergence by intraseasonal zonal wind anomalies acting upon background moisture is intensified in the presence of CES events, causing a stronger convective activity in the southern MC (SMC). The stronger moisture convergence in the SMC is associated with the CES‐induced intensification of low‐level northwesterly and westerly winds, which, in turn, strengthen zonal wind convergences and positive wind‐evaporation feedbacks onto the MJO convection. An improved process understanding of the link between the CES and MJO detours can help engender improvements in extreme weather forecasts and aid investigation biases in simulating MJO in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying the Opportunity Limits of Automatic Residential Electric Load Shaping

Electric utility residential demand response programs typically reduce load a few times a year during periods of peak energy use. In the future, utilities and consumers may monetarily and environmentally benefit from continuously shaping load by alternatively encouraging or discouraging the use of electricity. One way to shape load and introduce elasticity is to broadcast forecasts of dynamic electricity prices that orchestrate electricity supply and demand in order to maximize the efficiency of conventional generation and the use of renewable resources including wind and solar energy. A binary control algorithm that influences the on and off states of end uses was developed and applied to empirical time series data to estimate price-based instantaneous opportunities for shedding and adding electric load. To overcome the limitations of traditional stochastic methods in quantifying diverse, non-Gaussian, non-stationary distributions of observed appliance behaviour, recent developments in wavelet-based analysis were applied to capture and simulate time-frequency domain behaviour. The performance of autoregressive and spectral reconstruction methods was compared, with phase reconstruction providing the best simulation ensembles. Results show spatiotemporal differences in the amount of load that can be shed and added, which suggest further investigation is warranted in estimating the benefits anticipated from the wide-scale deployment of continuous automatic residential load shaping. Empirical data and documented software code are included to assist in reproducing and extending this work.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1976

A preliminary investigation of downward coupling of the stratosphere and the troposphere

Potential relationships between anomalies in the stratosphere and later anomalies at the surface at the same station are identified. The anomaly of October precipitation at mid and high latitude stations appears related to the date the fall reversal of zonal wind occurs; and the magnitude of the anomaly of surface temperature five or six months following a key month appears related to the stratospheric zonal wind speed during the key month. Both relations are statistically significant at the five percent level, and require more detailed analysis for possible use in long range forecasting.

Nastrom, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

NASA satellite helps airliners avoid ozone concentrations

Results from a test to determine the effectiveness of satellite data for helping airlines avoid heavy concentrations of ozone are reported. Information from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer, aboard the Nimbus-7 was transmitted, for use in meteorological forecast activities. The results show: (1) Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer profile of total ozone in the atmosphere accurately represents upper air patterns and can be used to locate meteorological activity; (2) route forecasting of highly concentrated ozone is feasible; (3) five research aircraft flights were flown in jet stream regions located by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer to determine winds, temperatures, and air composition. It is shown that the jet stream is coincides with the area of highest total ozone gradient, and low total ozone amounts are found where tropospheric air has been carried along above the tropopause on the anticyclonic side of the subtropical jet stream.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1986

Shuttle imaging radar-C science plan

The Shuttle Imaging Radar-C (SIR-C) mission will yield new and advanced scientific studies of the Earth. SIR-C will be the first instrument to simultaneously acquire images at L-band and C-band with HH, VV, HV, or VH polarizations, as well as images of the phase difference between HH and VV polarizations. These data will be digitally encoded and recorded using onboard high-density digital tape recorders and will later be digitally processed into images using the JPL Advanced Digital SAR Processor. SIR-C geologic studies include cold-region geomorphology, fluvial geomorphology, rock weathering and erosional processes, tectonics and geologic boundaries, geobotany, and radar stereogrammetry. Hydrology investigations cover arid, humid, wetland, snow-covered, and high-latitude regions. Additionally, SIR-C will provide the data to identify and map vegetation types, interpret landscape patterns and processes, assess the biophysical properties of plant canopies, and determine the degree of radar penetration of plant canopies. In oceanography, SIR-C will provide the information necessary to: forecast ocean directional wave spectra; better understand internal wave-current interactions; study the relationship of ocean-bottom features to surface expressions and the correlation of wind signatures to radar backscatter; and detect current-system boundaries, oceanic fronts, and mesoscale eddies. And, as the first spaceborne SAR with multi-frequency, multipolarization imaging capabilities, whole new areas of glaciology will be opened for study when SIR-C is flown in a polar orbit.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structure of Offshore Low-Level Jet Turbulence and Implications to Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling

This paper explores realistic nonstationary atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence arising from nonstationarity at the mesoscale, particularly within offshore low-level jets with implications to offshore wind farms, using high-fidelity multiscale large-eddy simulations (LES). To this end, we analyzed the single-point turbulence statistical structure of a North-Atlantic offshore LLJ event simulated using high-resolution LES (AMR-Wind). The nonstationary LLJ is simulated using a mesoscale-to-microscale coupled (MMC) simulation procedure involving data assimilation of mesoscale velocity and temperature data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Unlike the assimilation of mesoscale velocity data into the LES, the direct assimilation of temperature profiles had a strong impact on turbulence stratification, thereby causing erroneous predictions of turbulence both above and within the jet layer. Various approaches to mitigate this effect have resulted in multiple (four) variants of this MMC strategy. Outcomes from this work clearly show that the turbulence within the low-level jet is a strong function of the MMC approach as the turbulence structure within the low-level jet is dependent on the flux of residual turbulence from outside the jet, which in turn depends on the temperature forcing history. Additionally, the turbulence predicted by all these different methods (as well as the observation data) show similar deviations from equilibrium as evidenced by comparisons with idealized atmospheric turbulence structure obtained using the same numerical method. In general, we observe that the predicted LLJ turbulence tends to differ from canonical ABL turbulence with comparable shear. Particularly, the combination of shear and turbulence observed in such nonstationary low-level turbulence cannot be matched using equilibrium settings and therefore, represents a critical use-case for both testing and leveraging meso–micro coupling strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of Measured and Numerically Simulated Turbulence Statistics in a Convective Boundary Layer Over Complex Terrain

High resolution numerical simulation can provide insight into important physical processes that occur within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The present work employs large eddy simulation (LES) nested within the Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) framework to simulate real conditions in the convective PBL over an area of complex terrain. A multiple nesting approach has been used to downsize the grid spacing size from 12.15 km (mesoscale) to 0.03 km (LES). To minimize artifacts in theWRF-LES solutions resulting from using an inappropriate grid spacing on the WRF-Meso domain, a careful selection of grid spacing has been conducted. The WRF-LES results have been evaluated with in situ and remote sensing observations collected during the US Department of Energy supported Columbia BasinWind Energy Study (CBWES). The comparison for the first and second order moments, turbulence spectrum, and probability density function (pdf) of wind speed show good agreement between the simulation and data. Furthermore, the WRF-LES variables show a great deal of variability in space and time caused by the complex topography in the LES domain. The WRF-LES results show that the flow structures, such as roll vortices and convective cells, over the domain vary depending on both the spatial location and time of the day. In addition to basic studies related to boundary-layer meteorology, results from these simulations can be used in other applications, such as studying the wind energy resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Electron Flux Models for Different Energies at Geostationary Orbit

Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30-50 keV, 50-100 keV, 100-200 keV, 200-350 keV, and 350-600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%.

Boynton, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA's GMAO Atmospheric Motion Vectors Simulator: Description and Application to the MISTiC Winds Concept

An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of 12 satellites (4 orbital planes). In addition, one of the main expected impacts of the MISTiC Winds concept is the ability to derive water vapor feature tracking AMVs below 500-400 hPa, an unique feature among the water vapor AMVs derived from the current Earth observing system.

Carvalho, David↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA's GMAO Atmospheric Motion Vectors Simulator: Description and Application to the MISTiC Winds Concept

An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of 12 satellites (4 orbital planes). In addition, one of the main expected impacts of the MISTiC Winds concept is the ability to derive water vapor feature tracking AMVs below 500-400 hPa, an unique feature among the water vapor AMVs derived from the current Earth observing system.

Carvalho, David↗
DOE OSTI2021

A proposed criteria to identify wind turbine drivetrain bearing loads that induce roller slip based white-etching cracks

In this article, the type of roller slip behavior that may result in the formation of white-etching cracks (WECs) in wind turbine gearbox bearings is identified. A new hypothesis based on the inner raceway normal contact load magnitude at the time of roller slip is proposed as the probable cause of WECs. For this purpose, the maximum normal contact loads are identified when roller slip occurs in high-speed shaft bearings at different mean wind speeds. Subsequently, the annual probability of occurrence of the maximum normal loads are obtained. The probability of maximum load under slip exceeding a limit probability is hypothesized as a probable cause for WEC. In order to apply the proposed hypothesis, two different wind turbines high-speed shaft bearings are used: the cylindrical roller bearing of the General Electric 1.5 SLE turbine and the tapered roller bearing of Vestas V52 turbine. Both the chosen bearings are on the generator side of the high-speed shaft. For both turbines, measurement data together with analytical models are used for identifying the slip and the maximum normal contact loads. We propose forecasting the probability of exceedance of a threshold maximum normal contact load level during slip to identify the possibility for inducing WECs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the need for the light elements primary process (LEPP)

Extant chemical evolution models underestimate the galactic production of Sr, Y, and Zr as well as the solar system abundances of s-only isotopes with 90 < A < 130. To solve this problem, an additional (unknown) process has been invoked, the so-called light element primary process (LEPP). In this paper we investigate possible alternative solutions. Based on Full Network Stellar evolutionary calculations, we investigate the effects on the solar system s-only distribution induced by the inclusion of some commonly ignored physical processes (e.g., rotation) or by the variation of the treatment of convective overshoot, mass loss, and the efficiency of nuclear processes. Our main findings are (1) at the epoch of the formation of the solar system, our reference model produces supersolar abundances for the whole s-only distribution, even in the range 90 < A < 130, (2) within errors, the s-only distribution relative to {sup 150}Sm is flat, (3) the s-process contribution of the less massive AGB stars (M < 1.5 M {sub ⊙}) as well as of the more massive ones (M > 4.0 M {sub ⊙}) are negligible, (4) the inclusion of rotation implies a downward shift of the whole distribution with a higher efficiency for the heavy s-only isotopes, leading to a flatter s-only distribution, (5) different prescriptions on convection or mass loss produce nearly rigid shifts of the whole distribution. In summary, a variation of the standard paradigm of AGB nucleosynthesis would allow reconciliation of model predictions with solar system s-only abundances. Nonetheless, the LEPP cannot be definitely ruled out because of the uncertainties still affecting stellar and galactic chemical evolution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoitaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Centrally Concentrated X-Ray Radiation from an Extended Accreting Corona in Active Galactic Nuclei

The X-ray emission from bright active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is believed to originate in a hot corona lying above a cold, geometrically thin accretion disk. A highly concentrated corona located within ∼10 gravitational radii above the black hole is inferred from observations. Based on the accretion of interstellar medium/wind, a disk corona model has been proposed in which the corona is well coupled to the disk by radiation, thermal conduction, as well as by mass exchange. Such a model avoids artificial energy input to the corona and has been used to interpret the spectral features observed in AGN. In this work, it is shown that the bulk emission size of the corona is very small for the extended accretion flow in our model. More than 80% of the hard X-ray power is emitted from a small region confined within 10 Schwarzschild radii around a non-spinning black hole, which is expected to be even smaller accordingly for a spinning black hole. Here, the corona emission is more extended at higher Eddington ratios. The compactness parameter of the corona, l=(L/R)((σ{sub T})/(m{sub e}c{sup 3})), is shown to be in the range of 1–33 for Eddington ratios of 0.02–0.1. Combined with the electron temperature in the corona, this indicates that electron–positron pair production is not dominant in this regime. A positive relation between the compactness parameter and photon index is also predicted. By comparing the above model predictions with observational features, we find that the model is in agreement with observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗