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DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Biomass Productivity by Forecast‐Informed Pond Operations

ABSTRACT Microalgal cultivation for biofuels and proteins holds significant promise but faces challenges in achieving economically viable biomass productivity under variable environmental conditions. This study introduces a forecast‐informed pond operation (FIPO) system that uses numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble forecasts and the biomass assessment tool (BAT) to optimize daily dilution rates for enhanced biomass production. In contrast to the current practice, where fixed dilution rates are based on operator experience, the FIPO system determines the optimal dilution rate based on future weather forecasts and biomass growth conditions. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of FIPO in both short‐ and long‐term growth scenarios. In short‐term experiments, FIPO increased biomass production by 21.3% compared to batch growth and 7.4% over fixed dilution (60% every 3 days) operations. The NWP forecast‐informed operations achieved biomass production nearly identical to that using perfect weather forecasts, highlighting the accuracy of current NWP forecasts for guiding pond operations. In long‐term experiments, FIPO resulted in biomass production increases of 13.3% and 17.8% compared to two fixed dilution rates (60% every 3 days and 20% daily). These findings underscore the viability of using NWP forecasts to optimize microalgal cultivation systems. By adjusting daily dilution rates in response to forecasted weather, operators can achieve higher biomass yields and mitigate risks associated with environmental variability. This study provides a foundation for future research and practical applications in commercial‐scale microalgal production.

Yan, Hongxiang [Energy and Environment Directorate↗
NASA NTRS2009

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

CWAM↗
NASA NTRS1977

Survey: National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) is comprised of three operational divisions (Development, Automation, and Forecast) and an Administrative Division. The Development Division develops and implements mathematical models for forecasting the weather. The Automation Division provides the software and processing services to accommodate the models used in daily forecasts. The Forecasting Division applies a combination of numerical and manual techniques to produce analyses and prognoses up to 120 hr into the future. This guidance material is combined with severe storm information from the National Hurricane Center and the National Severe Storms Forecasting Center to develop locally tailored forecasts by the Weather Service Forecast Offices and, in turn, by the local Weather Service Offices. A very general flow of this information is shown. A more detailed illustration of data flow into, within, and from the NMC is given. The interrelations are depicted between the various meteorological organizations and activities.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Atmosphere and Ocean Horizontal Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone and Upper-Ocean Response Forecasts in Four Major Hurricanes

A coupled atmosphere–ocean model is necessary for tropical cyclone (TC) prediction to accurately characterize ocean feedback on atmospheric processes within the TC environment. Here, the ECMWF coupled global model is run at horizontal resolutions from 9 to 1.4 km in the atmosphere, as well as 25 and 8 km in the ocean, to identify how resolution impacts forecast accuracy of four observed major TCs in the Atlantic: Irma, Florence, Teddy, and Ida. Most of the resolutions used here are unprecedented for global models. GOES-16 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and best track data are used for atmospheric validation. Salinity and temperature observations from Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observer (ALAMO) floats are used to validate modeled upper-ocean response, including mixed layer deepening, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial waves in the wakes of TCs. Increasing atmospheric resolution leads to more realistic TC structure and stronger winds, significantly improving TC intensity forecasts and modestly improving track errors. Ocean resolution impacts the upper-ocean response but does not influence atmospheric forecasts for the fast-moving TCs considered here. Stronger mixing, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillations are found for both higher atmosphere and ocean resolutions, provided the initial upper-ocean state is the same for the two ocean resolutions. Whether this agrees better with the ALAMO observations also depends on the realism of the initial upper-ocean state in the model, emphasizing the importance of ocean initialization for the accurate upper-ocean response. Overall, the model at all resolutions correctly predicts stronger mixing, surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillation amplitudes to the right of a TC center, as observed by ALAMO floats.

Atmosphere-ocean interaction↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of Global Fire Weather Database Reanalysis and Short-Term Forecast Products

Daily Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components calculated from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), are compared to FWI calculations from a global network of weather stations over 2004–2018, and short-term, experimental (8 d) daily FWI forecasts are evaluated for their skill across the Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World for 2018. FWI components from MERRA-2 were, in general, biased low compared to station data, but this reflects a mix of coherent low and high biases of different magnitudes. Biases in different MERRA-2 FWI components were related to different biases in weather input variables for different regions, but temperature and relative humidity biases were the most important overall. FWI forecasts had high skill for 1–2 d lead times for most of the world. For longer lead times, forecast skill decreased most quickly at high latitudes and was most closely related to decreasing skill of relative humidity forecasts. These results provide a baseline for the evaluation and use of fire weather products calculated from global analysis and forecast fields.

Global Fire Weather Database↗
NASA NTRS2010

Extracting Space Weather Information from Research Models: Opportunities and Challenges

In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Motivated by the objectives to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organizations, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting support. Over time, these activities have produced tailored products for partners, as well as tools, which address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic mission community. All tools are accessible via a configurable, flexible interface. During this process, CCMC has accumulated substantial experience in understanding model performance, as well as in the design and execution of realtime systems. This presentation will focus on lessons learned and it will suggest low hanging fruit for transition to operations at partner agencies.

Hesse, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to bring to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Initially motivated by the objective to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organization, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting. Over time, these activities have evolved into tailored products for partners, as well as into a direct support of the space weather needs within NASA robotic mission community. Accessible through a customizable interface, users within the US or at partnering institutions internationally have access to space weather tools driven by the most advanced space research models. Through partnering with agencies and institutions in the US and abroad, the CCMC strives to set up further data sharing agreements to the benefit of all participating institutions. In this presentation, we provide an overview of existing CCMC space weather services and products, and we will explore additional avenues for international collaborations.

Hesse, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2000

Operational Assimilation of GOES Data into a Mesoscale Model

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) within the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) since 1 November 1998. We performed the assimilation on a model grid centered over the Southeastern US. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and relative humidity of more than 250 case days has been performed to date. Results show that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. We are working with forecasters at the National Weather Service Forecast Office located in Birmingham, AL to evaluate the impact of the assimilation on precipitation forecasts. In addition, work is currently underway to determine the ability of both the assimilation technique and Early Eta to sense the significant changes that occur in both leaf expansion and soil moisture conditions during the Spring-Summer of 1999. This will be accomplished via examination of the simulated surface energy budgets from both modeling systems.

Lapenta, William↗
NASA NTRS2015

SMOS Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System: Impact on LSM Initialization and NWP Forecasts

Land surface models are important components of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, partitioning incoming energy into latent and sensitive heat fluxes that affect boundary layer growth and destabilization. During warm-season months, diurnal heating and convective initiation depend strongly on evapotranspiration and available boundary layer moisture, which are substantially affected by soil moisture content. Therefore, to properly simulate warm-season processes in NWP models, an accurate initialization of the land surface state is important for accurately depicting the exchange of heat and moisture between the surface and boundary layer. In this study, soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite radiometer are assimilated into the Noah Land Surface Model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter embedded within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) software framework. The output from LIS-Noah is subsequently used to initialize runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model. The impact of assimilating SMOS retrievals is assessed by initializing the WRF model with LIS-Noah output obtained with and without SMOS data assimilation. The southeastern United States is used as the domain for a preliminary case study. During the summer months, there is extensive irrigation in the lower Mississippi Valley for rice and other crops. The irrigation is not represented in the meteorological forcing used to drive the LIS-Noah integration, but the irrigated areas show up clearly in the SMOS soil moisture retrievals, resulting in a case with a large difference in initial soil moisture conditions. The impact of SMOS data assimilation on both Noah soil moisture fields and on short-term (0-48 hour) WRF weather forecasts will be presented.

Blankenship, Clay↗
NASA NTRS2015

Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud‐computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high‐performance computing environments, supporting multi‐node systems required for near real‐time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on‐demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on‐demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre‐compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF‐EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher‐resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building activities in environmental monitoring and prediction across a growing number of regional hubs throughout the world. Capacity‐building applications that extend numerical weather prediction to developing countries are intended to provide near real‐time applications to benefit public health, safety, and economic interests, but may have a greater impact during disaster events by providing a source for local predictions of weather‐related hazards, or impacts that local weather events may have during the recovery phase.

Molthan, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of the SPoRT Stoplight Product to Support NWS Decision Support Services

The National Weather Service Forecast Offices (NWSFOs) use many weather tools and observational datasets to provide support for critical decision-making by core partners such as public safety officials, emergency managers, and first responders. These core partners who need weather decision support services (DSS) for outdoor events require up-to-the-minute weather information to ensure the safety and protection of attendees and workers. Storms and lightning, potentially deadly, pose a significant threat during outdoor events and are among the weather phenomena frequently cited as a DSS requirement. According to the National Lightning Safety Council, from 2014 up to August 2024, lightning resulted in 222 fatalities in the U.S. For outdoor events with hundreds to thousands of attendees, having the right tools to detect and monitor lightning activity is of utmost importance to protect lives. Common guidelines for lightning safety include moving inside a substantial structure at the first sight of threatening skies or the first sound of thunder, and waiting 30 minutes after the last lightning flash or thunder before returning outside. Using this guidance as a framework, scientists at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) center have developed the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Stoplight tool. This experimental tool uses the GLM Flash Extent Density imagery to display the location and recency of lightning flashes. To simplify interpretation, these lightning pixels are color-coded in 10-minute bins, ranging from red (lightning detected 0 to 10 minutes ago) to yellow (10 to 20 minutes ago) to green (20 to 30 minutes ago). The Stoplight tool also allows users to place markers at the location of outdoor events with range rings around the location to help in assessing the location and relative age of lightning flashes near and upstream of the event. The goal is to help NWS forecasters provide core partners with the necessary information to make the best decisions possible. While the Stoplight tool is experimental, forecasters at NWSFO Raleigh, NC, have periodically used the Stoplight guidance to evaluate its utility within NWS DSS. This presentation will discuss how the Stoplight tool was successfully used for DSS for four outdoor events in central NC in 2023 and 2024. Future improvements to this tool, including the addition of AI applications and the merging of ground-based lightning data with GLM data, will be reviewed.

Gail Hartfield↗
NASA NTRS1988

A study for systematic errors of the GLA forecast model in tropical regions

From the sensitivity studies performed with the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system, it was revealed that the forecast errors in the tropics affect the ability to forecast midlatitude weather in some cases. Apparently, the forecast errors occurring in the tropics can propagate to midlatitudes. Therefore, the systematic error analysis of the GLA forecast system becomes a necessary step in improving the model's forecast performance. The major effort of this study is to examine the possible impact of the hydrological-cycle forecast error on dynamical fields in the GLA forecast system.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗