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DOE OSTI2024

Development of Steady-State and Dynamic Mass and Energy Constrained Neural Networks for Distributed Chemical Systems Using Noisy Transient Data

The paper presents the development of algorithms for mass and energy constrained neural network models that can exactly conserve the overall mass and energy of distributed chemical process systems, even though the noisy transient data used for optimal model training violate the same. In contrast to approximately satisfying mass and energy balance constraints of a system by soft penalization of objective function, algorithms have been developed for solving equality-constrained nonlinear optimization problems, thus providing the guarantee of exactly satisfying the system mass and energy conservation laws. For developing dynamic mass-energy constrained network models for distributed systems, hybrid series and parallel dynamic-static neural networks have been leveraged. The developed algorithms for solving both the training and forward problems are validated using both steady-state and dynamic data in the presence of various noise characteristics. The developed data-driven algorithms are flexible to exactly satisfy mass and energy balance constraints for dynamic chemical processes if the system holdup information is available. The proposed network structures and algorithms are applied to the development of data-driven lumped and distributed models of an adiabatic superheater/reheater system, a nonisothermal continuous stirred tank reactor, as well as an electrically heated plug-flow reactor system where one form of energy gets transformed to another. It has been observed that the mass-energy constrained neural networks yield a root mean squared error of <1% with respect to the system truth for the case studies evaluated in this work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of Numerical Tools for Calculating Reactivity Feedback in Sodium Fast Reactors Using SEFOR Experimental Data

The Southwest Experimental Fast Oxide Reactor (SEFOR) was an experimental sodium-cooled fast breeder reactor operated from 1969 to 1972 with experiments designed to measure Doppler reactivity feedback in a wide temperature range from around 350 °F to temperatures approaching the melting point of mixed oxide fuel of around 5000 °F, providing valuable data for code validations. Co-supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) Fast Reactor Program (FRP) and the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the SEFOR benchmark project focused on using the experimental data to validate numerical tools that are used in industry and academia to design and license sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs). By the end of FY-25, substantial progress was achieved in the SEFOR benchmark study. A variety of numerical tools commonly used for modeling SFRs were applied to develop models for SEFOR core configurations I-D, I-E, I-I, and I-J. These included Monte Carlo codes such as MCNP, Serpent, and Shift; deterministic codes such as the legacy Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) suite and the high-fidelity NEAMS code Griffin; and the system analysis code SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS). Using these models, both SEFOR zero-power experiments and power-ascending tests were successfully simulated. Comparisons were performed against experimental measurements of core criticalities, reflector worth, kinetics parameters (Λ/βeff), isothermal reactivity feedback (from 350 °F to 760 °F at zero power), and power-ascending reactivity feedback (as power increased from 0.4 MW to 17 MW). In general, these comparisons demonstrated very good agreement between numerical results and experimental data. In Fiscal Year 26 (FY-26), the SEFOR benchmark project will continue to address the modeling issues identified in FY-25. Effort will focus on the simulation of reactivity insertion transients in SEFOR core II using the ARC/SAS model. Future work will also focus on incorporating BISON into the SEFOR core modeling process to enable the first Multiphysics simulations of the isothermal tests based on the MOOSE framework.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Geomechanical models of impact cratering: Puchezh-Katunki structure

Impact cratering is a complex natural phenomenon that involves various physical and mechanical processes. Simulating these processes may be improved using the data obtained during the deep drilling at the central mound of the Puchezh-Katunki impact structure. A research deep drillhole (named Vorotilovskaya) has been drilled in the Puchezh-Katunki impact structure (European Russia, 57 deg 06 min N, 43 deg 35 min E). The age of the structure is estimated at about 180 to 200 m.y. The initial rim crater diameter is estimated at about 40 km. The central uplift is composed of large blocks of crystalline basement rocks. Preliminary study of the core shows that crystalline rocks are shock metamorphosed by shock pressure from 45 GPa near the surface to 15-20 GPa at a depth of about 5 km. The drill core allows the possibility of investigating many previously poorly studied cratering processes in the central part of the impact structure. As a first step one can use the estimates of energy for the homogeneous rock target. The diameter of the crater rim may be estimated as 40 km. The models elaborated earlier show that such a crater may be formed after collapse of a transient cavity with a radius of 10 km. The most probable range of impact velocities from 11.2 to 30 km/s may be inferred for the asteroidal impactor. For the density of a projectile of 2 g/cu cm the energy of the impact is estimated as 1E28 to 3E28 erg. In the case of vertical impact, the diameter of an asteroidal projectile is from 1.5 to 3 km for the velocity range from 11 to 30 km/s. For the most probable impact angle of 45 deg, the estimated diameter of an asteroid is slightly larger: from 2 to 4 km. Numerical simulation of the transient crater collapse has been done using several models of rock rheology during collapse. Results show that the column at the final position beneath the central mound is about 5 km in length. This value is close to the shock-pressure decay observed along the drill core. Further improvement of the model needs to take into account the blocky structure of target rocks revealed by drilling.

Ivanov, B. A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The containment set approach to upsets in digital systems

An approach to the fault analysis of digital systems is proposed which combines faults, hardware, and software into one overall model. The model is useful for the consideration of intermittent/transient faults, and supports a new method, based on the concept of a containment set, for realizing transient fault tolerance without massive redundancy. The model also serves as the basis for a new approach to system fault tolerance evaluation and validation using a transition matrix defined in terms of the containment set. The application of upset theory to the design of transient fault-tolerant microprocessor controllers is discussed.

Glaser, R. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

High Performance Heat Pipe Power Transient Testing at SPHERE Facility

Microreactors are being researched, designed, and built at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Microreactors are small reactors defined at less than 20MW of power. These reactor concepts are also being looked at throughout industry for various applications. An important aspect of these reactor designs is economic feasibility i.e. lower overnight capital cost. The driving factors for implementing microreactors are quick setup and takedown, minimal operators, and the ability to manufacture them readily and to fit in mid-sized containers for transport. A specific area of research to aid in successful integration of these factors within the designs is passive heat removal of the core’s thermal power. Interest in heat pipes to achieve this passive heat removal has been shown across multiple industry partners. Because of this interest, INL has developed a test facility to facilitate experimental tests for sodium filled heat pipes. INL has developed the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator (SPHERE) facility to run experiments on high performance, sodium filled heat pipes. As mentioned above, heat pipes are passive heat transfer devices. Radially, heat pipes are broken up into an outer wall, a small annular gap, a wick structure, and a centerline gap. They function by utilizing latent heat transfer. Heat pipes are traditionally separated into three regions, an evaporator (heat input), an adiabatic region, and finally a condenser region (heat removal). As heat is being applied to the evaporator, the working fluid undergoes a phase change to a vapor. This phase change causes a differential pressure across the axial length of the pipe driving flow down the center gap of the heat pipe. The vapor flows down past the adiabatic region to the condenser where the heat is removed. This heat removal forces the working fluid to phase change back to a liquid. The wick structure is then utilized to drive the flow back towards the evaporator by capillary forces. This backflow is aided by the annular gap. Because this heat transfer mechanism functions with latent heat transfer, the heat pipe is close to isothermal down the axial length. Heat pipes can operate under a wide range of working fluids. Considerations for these working fluids are primarily driven by operating temperatures amongst other important factors based around overall performance. Sodium filled heat pipes operate from 450°C up to 900°C. This temperature range works well for the current microreactor designs. In conjunction with this experimental capability, INL has developed a modeling software to simulate heat pipe physics within reactor cores. This modeling software is called Sockeye and functions under the established INL Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). SPHERE also supports Sockeye development by providing the modeling team with experimental data on an array of setups and operating parameters to support validation efforts. A power transient experiment was performed utilizing the SPHERE facility to continue to aid with Sockeye development. The testing followed a proposed test plan to ramp up and down the temperature of the heat pipe. Sockeye models steady state heat pipe operation with high accuracy, the data provided by the power transient testing aims to assist with the validation efforts and further enhance transient modeling capability of the tool [2].

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

SYSTEMATIC MULTI-INDEX VALIDATIONS OF SIDI ENGINE FLOW FIELD LES COMPUTATIONS USING CRANK ANGLE-RESOLVED PIV MEASUREMENTS

In-cylinder flow fields make significant impacts on the fuel atomization, fuel mixture formation, and combustion process in spark ignition direct injection (SIDI) engines. In recent years, model-based simulation approaches are preferred in regard to investigating the transient in-cylinder flow field characteristics. Most commonly, the simulation models are validated using single representative flow field at a typical crank angle measured by particle image velocimetry (PIV). However, it provides only limited knowledge about the flow field which is highly three-dimensional and of transient nature. In this study, crank angle-resolved Ply measurements are conducted on three distinct planes inside the cylinder to capture the transient process of flow field characteristics which vary with the crank angle. These three planes consist of one tumble plane through the spark plug tip, one tumble plane along two intake ports, and one swirl plane at 30 mm below the cylinder head. Large eddy simulation (LES) is employed for the numerical computations using the CONVERGE codes. On the basis of large datasets for both temporal and spatial domains, a multi-index systematic validation approach is conducted. Crank angle-resolved calculations of global indices and local indices are implemented using the flow fields velocity data obtained from both PIV and LES on select planes. Global indices reveal the trends in similarities of different crank angle degrees and locations, while local indices give the detail comparison results. In summary, with the systematic multi-index validation approach, the crucial crank angle degrees and locations for model verification will be detected. Furthermore, the corresponding critical flow features are analyzed. Practical guideline of flow field validation is proposed.

Crank angle-resolved PIV↗

NASA NTRS1983

Conductive damping of coronal motions

Time-dependent motions in the solar corona are subject to modification through conductive transport of thermal energy away from compression regions and into rarefaction regions. The evolution depends on how the energy is introduced - by an essentially thermal perturbation or by a density perturbation. The net effect of thermal conduction is to convert local kinetic energy in the transient into widely distributed thermal energy, which then may in turn be partially converted into kinetic energy of the bulk flow. Local motion in the transient is thereby damped. These effects are modeled here using a numerical solution of the time-dependent solar wind equations for single-fluid thermally conductive flow. The simulations of transient phenomena are made for ordinary collisional thermal conduction and compared with similar simulations done using polytropic flow. Between one and five solar radii, the gross character in the two cases is very similar. However, there are effects with thermal conduction that cannot be modeled with polytropic flow, illustrated here by temperature and velocity forerunners and a delayed and large-amplitude trailing velocity low. If thermal conduction is artificially inhibited by simple reduction of the thermal conduction coefficient, relative velocity amplitudes remain larger in approximate proportion to the amount the coefficient is reduced.

Suess, S. T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Circuit transients due to negative bias arcs on a high-voltage solar array in low Earth orbit

Arcing to negatively biased, exposed solar cell interconnects on solar arrays placed in plasma environments was established. Arcing, however, may cause damaging interference with the operation of electrical power systems in spacecraft planned to be driven with high-voltage solar arrays. An analytical model was developed to estimate the effects of netagive bias arcs on solar array power system performance. Solar cell characteristics, plasma interactions, and power system features are modeled by a linear, lumped element transient circuit, and the time domain equations are solved. Numerical results for solar array common mode and load voltage transients are calculated for typical conditions. Acceptable load transients are found for a range of arc current amplitudes and time constants.

Metz, R. N.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing High Burnup U-19Pu-10Zr Fuel Performance against Historical and Modeled Behavior

Advancing the deployment of sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) requires thorough testing of metallic fuel pins under accident conditions to establish safe operational limits of high burnup fuel. To conduct transient testing, a comprehensive understanding of steady-state fuel behavior obtained through both experimental characterization and accurate predictive capabilities is needed. This study comparatively assesses the steady-state irradiation performance of two high burnup U-19Pu-10Zr fuel pins, DP-36 and DP-40, irradiated under prototypic fast reactor conditions in preparation for planned safety testing at the Transient Reactor Test Facility. Since DP-40 was designated for use in the test and DP-36 serves as its sibling pin, non-destructive, engineering-scale post-irradiation examinations (PIE) were conducted on both pins while destructive examinations were performed exclusively on DP-36. The results were then assessed against historical performance data from similar fuel pins irradiated in the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II. Additionally, the steady-state irradiation of each pin was modeled using the BISON fuel performance code to assess the accuracy of current modeling capabilities in predicting the baseline irradiation behavior. Non-destructive examinations included neutron radiography to measure fuel column elongation, gamma scanning to verify pin integrity and fission product migration, and profilometry to assess dimensional changes. Benchmarking against existing PIE data revealed consistent patterns in axial fuel column growth and cladding diametral strain, though both pins exhibited longer low-density “fluff” structures, which can have implications for core reactivity and source term calculations. Destructive examinations on DP-36 included fission gas release analysis and sectioning for optical microscopy, which showed more complex constituent redistribution patterns than the traditionally accepted 3-ring model. The axial evolution of fractional areas and porosities of each of the redistributed zones were quantified and presented. Modeling comparisons showed agreement in fractional fission gas release but consistently overestimated axial and radial swelling and disagreed with measured axial porosity patterns. These conservative overpredictions suggested that the pins would appear closer to failure or operational limits at the start of transient tests, potentially leading to higher strain accumulation during the transient. While conservative estimates provide safety margins, they can negatively impact fuel economics. A review of the swelling models identified areas for improvement in the gaseous swelling, solid swelling, and fuel hot-pressing models when applied to ternary fuel. The results of this study highlight the critical importance of conducting pre-test characterization on both test and sibling pins to accurately capture steady-state fuel behavior, providing a precise baseline for post-test evaluations and essential inputs for transient modeling of the planned experiments. The analysis also revealed significant data gaps that require further investigation to enhance the understanding and prediction of fuel swelling and pore dynamics. Collecting comprehensive data across different irradiation conditions, burnup levels, and fuel compositions are essential for refining existing models and developing mechanistic models for both binary and ternary metallic fuels, ultimately improving the integration of modeling and experimental approaches in accident testing.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

RELAP5-3D validation studies based on the High Temperature Test facility

In the spring and summer of 2019, experiments were conducted at the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) that form the basis of an upcoming high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) thermal hydraulics (T/H) benchmark. HTTF is an integral effects test facility for HTGR T/H modeling validation. This paper presents RELAP5-3D models of two of those experiments: PG-27, a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC); and PG-29, a depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC). These models used the RELAP5-3D model of HTTF originally developed by Paul Bayless as a starting point. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification code, RAVEN was used to perform calibration studies for the steady-state portion of PG-27. Here we developed four PG-27 calibrations based on steady-state conditions. These calibrations all used an effective thermal conductivity equal to 36 % of the measured thermal conductivity, but they differed with respect to the frictional pressure drops and radial conduction models. These models all captured the trends in steady-state temperature distributions and transient temperature behavior well. All four calibrations show room for improvement in predicting the transient temperature rise. The smallest error in temperature rise during the transient was a 21 % underprediction, and the largest was a 48 % underprediction. The errors in transient temperature rise are largely a result of a mismatch in power density between the RELAP5-3D model and the experiment due to the location of active heater rods along the boundary between heat structures in the model. The best of these calibrations was applied to PG-29 to model the DCC. Once again, temperatures during the transient were underpredicted but trends in temperature were captured. The RELAP5-3D model captured trends in the data but could not reproduce measured temperatures exactly. This result is not attributed to deficiencies in the experimental data or to RELAP5–3D itself. Rather, this result likely arises due to the some of the assumptions and decisions made when the RELAP5-3D model was first developed, prior to the execution of HTTF experiments. An agreement in prediction of temperature trends but challenges reproducing HTTF temperatures within measurement uncertainty is consistent with previous analyses of HTTF in the literature. Future RELAP5-3D validation activities centered around HTTF may be able to provide greater insight into the code’s capabilities for HTGR modeling with a more finely nodalized model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Use of satellite data and modeling to assess the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere

Current research focused on the examination of the effects of ozone heating and Newtonian cooling on the linear stability of transient planetary waves. A finite difference numerical model was developed in which the basic state wind, temperature, and ozone distributions were constructed using ground-based and satellite data. Preliminary results indicate that ozone dynamics interaction may play a more important role in the stability and maintenance of planetary waves than previously thought, particularly in summer when the mean solar zenith angle is smallest and thus ozone heating largest. Examination of the finite amplitude interactions among radiation, ozone, and dynamics was carried out. Self-consistent, coupled equations governing the weakly nonlinear interactions are currently being analyzed to provide a better understanding of wave-mean flow interactions and ozone transport in a continuously stratified model of the troposphere-stratosphere coupled system.

Nathan, Terrence↗

NASA NTRS1993

Vulcanian explosive eruptions: A mechanism for localised pyroclast dispersal on Venus

A model of the mechanisms involved in transient (vulcanian-type) explosive eruptions has enabled us to place constraints on the velocities of blocks ejected during such events on Earth as well as on the excess pressure and concentration of gas in the vent prior to the onset of the explosion. This model, suitably modified, can predict the results of similar eruptions occurring under the differing Venusian environmental conditions. It is found that the much higher atmospheric pressure (approximately 100 bars at the mean planetary radius) dominates the form of the resulting deposit in two main ways: (1) by inhibiting the expansion out of the vent of overpressured gas, hence reducing ejecta velocity; and (2) by retarding the flight of ejected blocks via drag effects. Thus, it is expected that such deposits will typically extend to approximately 200 m on Venus as compared to several km for documented terrestrial deposits.

Fagents, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Uncertainty Evaluation of Computational Model Used to Support the Integrated Powerhead Demonstration Project

NASA and the U.S. Air Force are working on a joint project to develop a new hydrogen-fueled, full-flow, staged combustion rocket engine. The initial testing and modeling work for the Integrated Powerhead Demonstrator (IPD) project is being performed by NASA Marshall and Stennis Space Centers. A key factor in the testing of this engine is the ability to predict and measure the transient fluid flow during engine start and shutdown phases of operation. A model built by NASA Marshall in the ROCket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) program is used to predict transient engine fluid flows. The model is initially calibrated to data from previous tests on the Stennis E1 test stand. The model is then used to predict the next run. Data from this run can then be used to recalibrate the model providing a tool to guide the test program in incremental steps to reduce the risk to the prototype engine. In this paper, they define this type of model as a calibrated model. This paper proposes a method to estimate the uncertainty of a model calibrated to a set of experimental test data. The method is similar to that used in the calibration of experiment instrumentation. For the IPD example used in this paper, the model uncertainty is determined for both LOX and LH flow rates using previous data. The successful use of this model is then demonstrated to predict another similar test run within the uncertainty bounds. The paper summarizes the uncertainty methodology when a model is continually recalibrated with new test data. The methodology is general and can be applied to other calibrated models.

Steele, W. G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal Ratcheting Analysis of TEDS Packed-bed Thermocline Energy Storage Tank - Modeling Methodology and Data Validation

This report investigates numerical modeling methods for thermal ratcheting analysis of packed-bed thermal energy storage (TES) tank and discusses the validation results via comparison with experimental data. The experimental data obtained from various design characteristics of packed-bed thermocline tanks, including the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) TES tank at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), were used to validate thermal and mechanical models developed in this study to evaluate the thermal ratcheting potential. The thermal model was shown to predict the transient thermal propagation through the packed-bed thermocline tanks generally well. However, a larger discrepancy was observed during the comparison with the data from TEDS, presumably due to the uncertainty of boundary conditions given from the experiment. Based on the comparative study between the thermal model predictions and experimental data of various packed-bed thermocline tanks, potential improvements were suggested for the future TEDS experiments for more precise validation study. For mechanical (thermally induced stress) analysis, two different modeling approaches were tested to evaluate hoop stress applied to the packed-bed TES tank wall, which is a major cause of thermal ratcheting process: (i) infinite rigidity model and (ii) Drucker-Prager (DP) model. The ‘model (i)’ is a conservative method with infinite rigidity assumption of granular filler inside a TES tank, whereas the ‘model (ii)’ is a method that takes into account more realistic processes such as thermal expansion of filler and tank wall as well as inter-particle interactions during the cyclic operation of a packed-bed TES tank. The validity of each modeling method was examined by comparing the numerical simulation with the experimental data obtained from the packed-bed TES tank for Solar One pilot plant. Then, the effects of various model parameters were discussed to evaluate the thermal ratcheting potential of the TEDS TES tank. The preliminary thermal ratcheting analysis implies that the TEDS TES tank will hold its structural integrity during the normal operation cycles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1990

Internal rotor friction instability

The analytical developments and experimental investigations performed in assessing the effect of internal friction on rotor systems dynamic performance are documented. Analytical component models for axial splines, Curvic splines, and interference fit joints commonly found in modern high speed turbomachinery were developed. Rotor systems operating above a bending critical speed were shown to exhibit unstable subsynchronous vibrations at the first natural frequency. The effect of speed, bearing stiffness, joint stiffness, external damping, torque, and coefficient of friction, was evaluated. Testing included material coefficient of friction evaluations, component joint quantity and form of damping determinations, and rotordynamic stability assessments. Under conditions similar to those in the SSME turbopumps, material interfaces experienced a coefficient of friction of approx. 0.2 for lubricated and 0.8 for unlubricated conditions. The damping observed in the component joints displayed nearly linear behavior with increasing amplitude. Thus, the measured damping, as a function of amplitude, is not represented by either linear or Coulomb friction damper models. Rotordynamic testing of an axial spline joint under 5000 in.-lb of static torque, demonstrated the presence of an extremely severe instability when the rotor was operated above its first flexible natural frequency. The presence of this instability was predicted by nonlinear rotordynamic time-transient analysis using the nonlinear component model developed under this program. Corresponding rotordynamic testing of a shaft with an interference fit joint demonstrated the presence of subsynchronous vibrations at the first natural frequency. While subsynchronous vibrations were observed, they were bounded and significantly lower in amplitude than the synchronous vibrations.

Walton, J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Bubble Dynamics on a Heated Surface

In this work, we study steady and oscillatory thermocapillary and natural convective flows generated by a bubble on a heated solid surface. The interaction between gas and vapor bubbles with the surrounding fluid is of interest for both space and ground-based processing. A combined numerical-experimental approach is adopted here. The temperature field is visualized using Mach-Zehnder and/or Wollaston Prism Interferometry and the flow field is observed by a laser sheet flow visualization technique. A finite element numerical model is developed which solves the transient two-dimensional continuity, momentum, and energy equations and includes the effects of temperature-dependent surface tension and bubble surface deformation. Below the critical Marangoni number, the steady state low-g and 1-g temperature and velocity fields predicted by the finite element model are in excellent agreement with both the visualization experiments in our laboratory and recently published experimental results in the literature. Above the critical Marangoni number, the model predicts an oscillatory flow which is also closely confirmed by experiments. It is shown that the dynamics of the oscillatory flow are directly controlled by the thermal and hydrodynamic interactions brought about by combined natural and thermocapillary convection. Therefore, as numerical simulations show, there are considerable differences between the 1-g and low-g temperature and flow fields at both low and high Marangoni numbers. This has serious implications for both materials processing and fluid management in space.

Kassemi, M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Storage Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a fundamental component in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to increase the plant's dispatchability, capacity factor, while reducing the levelized cost of electricity. In central receivers CSP plants, nitrate molten salts have been used for several years for operation temperatures of up to 565 degrees C. Despite many efforts to advance nitrate salt to higher operation temperatures (even considering a replacement with molten chloride salts) to achieve higher energy conversion efficiencies, the 565 degrees C temperature is currently considered the state-of-the art. Although molten salt tanks have been broadly deployed in commercial CSP plants worldwide, several failures have been reported in these tanks after a few months or years of operation, causing significant economic loss and mistrust in CSP technologies. Most of these failures are associated with the infancy of the technology and multiple issues related to tank design, fabrication, commissioning, and aggressive operation. A technical standard dedicated to the design and fabrication of molten nitrate TES tanks does not exist today. Current in-service molten salt tanks have been generally designed based on the American Petroleum Institute's (API) 650 and ASME Section II standards. The API 650 code provides guidelines for dimensions and fabrication for oil storage tanks up to 260 degrees C. The ASME standard provides allowable stress values for various materials at a range of temperatures and conditions. Both standards seem to be limited for molten salt TES tanks where high temperatures, thermal cycling, and transient conditions are expected. In 2020, NREL released the Concentrating Solar Power Best Practices Study (NREL/TP-5500-75763) that summarized multiple issues in CSP plants, along with potential alternatives and recommendations to address those issues based on information collected from participants representing about 80% of operating CSP plants in the world. One of the recommendations from this study was the development of accurate and validated models to evaluate the plant's transient operation, capable of capturing the effect of short-term clouds and operator response, while being flexible in being adapted to various spatial and temporal resource data. The "Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants" project was inspired on this recommendation and was focused on (1) the development and validation of a physics-based model for a representative, commercial-scale molten salt tank, (2) performing simulations to evaluate the behavior of the tank as a function of typical plant operation conditions, (3) understanding tank failures mechanisms, (4) determining the residual stress and distortion in the tank floor after welding fabrication and evaluating their impact in the stresses developed in the tank during operation, (5) assessing the impact of key operation parameters on the temperature and stress distribution, (6) conduct a preliminary evaluation of design features to reduce stress and improve tank's reliability, and (7) estimate the tank's service life based on the stress developed under diverse operation scenarios. From the analysis conducted in the project and presented in this report, it was found that maximum stresses surpassing the yield strength point of the stainless steel (SS) 347H are developed on the tank floor near the perimeter. These large stresses are strongly influenced by the initial residual stresses and distortion of the tank floor after welding fabrication. During operation, large stresses are developed in the tank floor at high operation temperatures with large salt inventory levels during transient operation. High stresses are also related to elevated temperature gradients in the tank floor that could be attributed to insufficient mixing within the salt inflow and the salt inventory. Based on the analysis, creep is the predominant failure mechanism. However, the large stress levels could favor the plastic deformation into buckles, and crack formation due to stress relaxation cracking during cycle operation. A lifetime below 3 years was estimated for the typical plant operation conditions and a specific initial residual stress and deformation distribution of the tank floor. The estimated life agrees with the service time to failure reported in several commercial molten salt tanks. Desing and operation guidelines can be extracted from the analysis presented in this report, which could be adopted by tank manufacturers and CSP operators to advance toward an ultimate solution for tank failures by reducing residual and operational stresses to achieve a tank service life of more than 30 years. Addressing failures in molten salt TES tanks is fundamental for the CSP industry's survivability, but it is also important for other industrial and power generation applications using this technology, including nuclear and concentrating solar thermal.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Can Simple Machine Learning Tools Extend and Improve Temperature-Based Methods to Infer Streambed Flux?

Temperature-based methods have been developed to infer 1D vertical exchange flux between a stream and the subsurface. Current analyses rely on fitting physically based analytical and numerical models to temperature time series measured at multiple depths to infer daily average flux. These methods have seen wide use in hydrologic science despite strong simplifying assumptions including a lack of consideration of model structural error or the impacts of multidimensional flow or the impacts of transient streambed hydraulic properties. We performed a “perfect-model experiment” investigation to examine whether regression trees, with and without gradient boosting, can extract sufficient information from model-generated subsurface temperature time series, with and without added measurement error, to infer the corresponding exchange flux time series at the streambed surface. Using model-generated, synthetic data allowed us to assess the basic limitations to the use of machine learning; further examination of real data is only warranted if the method can be shown to perform well under these ideal conditions. We also examined whether the inherent feature importance analyses of tree-based machine learning methods can be used to optimize monitoring networks for exchange flux inference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗