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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Combined Satellite and Surface-Based Estimation of the Intracloud/ Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Ratio Over the Continental United States

Four years of observations from the NASA Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Global Atmospherics National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) are combined to determine the geographic distribution of the intracloud/cloud to ground lightning ratio over the continental United States. The mean ratio over this region is 2.64-2.94, with a standard deviation of 1.1-1.3 and anomalies as low as 1.0 or less over the Rocky and Appalachian mountains and as high as 8-10 in the central-upper midwest. There is some indication that the ratio covaries with ground elevation, although the relationship is nonunique. Little evidence is found to support a latitudinal covariance, despite significant variation in the climatological mean tropopause pressure over the latitudes considered. The dynamic range of local variability is comparable to the range of values cited by previous studies for latitudinal variation from the deep tropics to midlatitudes. Local high anomalies of this ratio in the midwest are coincident with anomalies in the climatological percentage of positive CG occurrence, as well as in the occurrence of large positive CGs characteristic of MCS convective and trailing stratiform regions. This suggests that storm type, morphology and level of organization may dominate over environmental cofactors in the local determination of this ratio.

Boccippio, D. J.↗

Coherence Analysis of the Space Launch System using Unsteady Pressure Sensitive Paint

Transonic buffet forces are a major source of unsteady loading on launch vehicles, thus requiring accurate estimation for efficient vehicle design. The state of the art in modeling these unsteady loads utilizes wind-tunnel tests where the fluctuating pressures are measured by pressure transducers (PTs) at discrete locations on a rigid buffet model. These pressures are then integrated over the surface of the vehicle to yield a series of orthogonal centerline loads called buffet forcing functions (BFFs). Typically, the PT layout aims at resolving the pressure correlation along the longitudinal axis of the vehicle. As a result, the distribution of azimuthal correlation and its impact on the estimated BFFs are not well known. To fill these gaps, extremely high-spatial-resolution uPSP data were collected for three different configurations of the Space Launch System in the NASA Ames Research Center 11-Foot Transonic Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The spatio-temporal behavior of the pressure correlation on these vehicles is analyzed and flow features of interest are investigated. It is shown that terminal shocks interacting with turbulence are a source of increased azimuthal coherence, especially when the shock develops at a junction. Vortex shedding off the forward attachment hardware that connects the core stage to the solid rocket boosters (SRBs) is the most severe buffet environment on the vehicle. The associated fluctuating pressures are shown to be highly coherent as far as the vehicle tail and up to 40 degrees away from the boosters. For selected areas of the vehicle, factoring the azimuthal coherence into the attenuation of discrete-measurements-based BFFs results in under prediction relative to the BFFs obtained from full integration of the uPSP data.

buffet↗

Accurate ab initio calculations which demonstrate a 3 Pi u ground state for Al2

The spectroscopic parameters and separations between the three low-lying X 3 Pi u, A 3 Sigma g -, and a 1 Sigma g + states of Al2 are studied as a function of both the one-particle and n-particle basis set. Approximate correlation treatments are calibrated against full Cl calculations correlating the six valence electrons in a double-zeta plus two d-function basis set. Since the CASSCF/MRCI 3 Pi u to 3 Sigma g - separation is in excellent agreement wtih the FCI value, the MRCI calculations were carried out in an extended (20s13p6d4f)/(6s5p3d2f) gaussian basis. Including a small correction for relativistic effects, the best estimate is that 3 Sigma g - state lies 174/cm above the 3 Pi u ground state. The 1 Sigma g + state lies at least 2000/cm higher in energy. At the CPF level, inclusion of 2s and 2p correlation has little effect on D sub e, reduces T sub e by only 26/cm, and shortens the bond lengths by about 0.02 a sub o. Further strong support for a 3 Pi u ground state comes from the experimental absorption spectra, since both observed transitions can be convincingly assigned as 3 Pi u yields 3 Pi g. The (2) 3 Pi g state is observed to be sensitive to the level of correlation treatment, and to have its minimum shifted to shorter rho values, such that the strongest experimental absorption peak probably corresponds to the 0 yields 2 transition.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

A measurement-based performability model for a multiprocessor system

A measurement-based performability model based on real error-data collected on a multiprocessor system is described. Model development from the raw errror-data to the estimation of cumulative reward is described. Both normal and failure behavior of the system are characterized. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and failure states are not simple exponential and that semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A reward function, based on the service rate and the error rate in each state, is then defined in order to estimate the performability of the system and to depict the cost of different failure types and recovery procedures.

Ilsueh, M. C.↗

Performability modeling based on real data: A casestudy

Described is a measurement-based performability model based on error and resource usage data collected on a multiprocessor system. A method for identifying the model structure is introduced and the resulting model is validated against real data. Model development from the collection of raw data to the estimation of the expected reward is described. Both normal and error behavior of the system are characterized. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A reward function, based on the service rate and the error rate in each state, is then defined in order to estimate the performability of the system and to depict the cost of different types of errors.

Hsueh, M. C.↗

Performability modeling based on real data: A case study

Described is a measurement-based performability model based on error and resource usage data collected on a multiprocessor system. A method for identifying the model structure is introduced and the resulting model is validated against real data. Model development from the collection of raw data to the estimation of the expected reward is described. Both normal and error behavior of the system are characterized. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model system behavior. A reward function, based on the service rate and the error rate in each state, is then defined in order to estimate the performability of the system and to depict the cost of apparent types of errors.

Hsueh, M. C.↗

ALTKAL: An optimum linear filter for GEOS-3 altimeter data

ALTKAL is a computer program designed to smooth sea surface height data obtained from the GEOS 3 altimeter, and to produce minimum variance estimates of sea surface height and sea surface slopes, along with their standard derivations. The program operates by processing the data through a Kalman filter in both the forward and backward directions, and optimally combining the results. The sea surface height signal is considered to have a geoid signal, modeled by a third order Gauss-Markov process, corrupted by additive white noise. The governing parameters for the signal and noise processes are the signal correlation length and the signal-to-noise ratio. Mathematical derivations of the filtering and smoothing algorithms are presented. The smoother characteristics are illustrated by giving the frequency response, the data weighting sequence and the transfer function of a realistic steady-state smoother example. Based on nominal estimates for geoidal undulation amplitude and correlation length, standard deviations for the estimated sea surface height and slope are 12 cm and 3 arc seconds, respectively.

Fang, B. T.↗

Estimating Attitude, Trajectory, and Gyro Biases in an Extended Kalman Filter using Earth Magnetic Field Data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer

Traditionally satellite attitude and trajectory have been estimated with completely separate systems, using different measurement data. The estimation of both trajectory and attitude for low earth orbit satellites has been successfully demonstrated in ground software using magnetometer and gyroscope data. Since the earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is known quite precisely, the differences between the computed and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft orbit, are a function of both the spacecraft trajectory and attitude errors. Therefore, these errors can be used to estimate both trajectory and attitude. This work further tests the single augmented Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) which simultaneously and autonomously estimates spacecraft trajectory and attitude with data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) magnetometer and gyro-measured body rates. In addition, gyro biases are added to the state and the filter's ability to estimate them is presented.

Deutschmann, Julie↗

ERTS-1 data user investigation of wetlands ecology

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery (enlarged to 1:250,000) is an excellent tool by which large area coastal marshland mapping may be undertaken. If states can sacrifice some accuracy (amount unknown at this time) in placing of boundary lines, the technique may be used to do the following: (1) estimate extent of man's impact on marshes by ditching and lagooning and accelerated successional trends; (2) place boundaries between wetland and upland and hence estimate amount of coastal marshland remaining in the state; (3) distinguish among relatively large zones of various plant species including high and low growth S. alterniflora, J. roemerianus, and S. cynosuroides; and (4) estimate marsh plant species productivity when ground based information is available.

Anderson, R. R.↗

An atlas of monthly mean distributions of SSMI surface wind speed, ARGOS buoy drift, AVHRR/2 sea surface temperature, and ECMWF surface wind components during 1991

The following monthly mean global distributions for 1991 are presented with a common color scale and geographical map: 10-m height wind speed estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) on a United States Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft; sea surface temperature estimated from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR/2) on a U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) spacecraft; Cartesian components of free-drifting buoys which are tracked by the ARGOS navigation system on NOAA satellites; and Cartesian components of the 10-m height wind vector computed by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). Charts of monthly mean value, sampling distribution, and standard deviation value are displayed. Annual mean distributions are displayed.

Halpern, D.↗

Computational tools for multi-linked flexible structures

A software module which designs and tests controllers and filters in Kalman Estimator form, based on a polynomial state-space model is discussed. The user-friendly program employs an interactive graphics approach to simplify the design process. A variety of input methods are provided to test the effectiveness of the estimator. Utilities are provided which address important issues in filter design such as graphical analysis, statistical analysis, and calculation time. The program also provides the user with the ability to save filter parameters, inputs, and outputs for future use.

Lee, Gordon K. F.↗

Multivariable State-Space Identification in the Delta and Shift Operators

This paper develops algorithms for multivariable state-space identification which can be used to estimate models in any operator of interest i.e., delta-rule, shift, Laplace s, etc. The approach is based on the State-Space from Frequency Data (SSFD) algorithm which was designed specifically to eliminate distortions from windowing effects.

multivariable state-space identification SSFD wind↗

Estimating Dust and Water Ice Content of the Martian Atmosphere From THEMIS Data

Researchers at JPL and Arizona State University conducted a comparative study of three candidate algorithms for estimating components of the Martian atmosphere, using raw (uncalibrated) data collected by the Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS). THEMIS is an instrument onboard the Mars Odyssey spacecraft that acquires image data in five visible and nine infrared (IR) wavelength bands. The algorithms under study used data collected from eight of the nine IR bands to estimate the dust and water ice content of the atmosphere. Such an algorithm could be used in onboard data processing to trigger other algorithms that search for features of scientific interest and to reduce the volume of data transmitted to Earth. The algorithms studied were based on regression models. In the study, the optical depths estimated by these algorithms were compared with optical depths estimated in ground-based processing using fully calibrated data from both THEMIS and the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES). TES is an instrument onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft that also observes the planet at infrared wavelengths, but at a lower spatial resolution than THEMIS does. Of the algorithms studied, the one that performed best was based on a Gaussian Support Vector Machine regression model. The test results indicated that this algorithm, operating on the raw data, had error rates that were within the uncertainty associated with the estimates obtained by the groundbased analysis of the fully calibrated data. This level of fidelity demonstrates that these algorithms are sufficiently accurate for use in an onboard setting.

Bandfield, Joshua↗

Markov chains for testing redundant software

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

White, Allan L.↗

Prior biosphere model impact on global terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated from OCO-2 retrievals

This study assesses the impact of different state of the art global biospheric CO2 flux models, when applied as prior information, on inverse model “top-down” estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes obtained when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations. This is done with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using synthetic CO2 column-average dry air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals sampled at the OCO-2 satellite spatiotemporal frequency. The OSSEs utilized a 4-D variational (4D-Var) assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes using synthetic OCO-2 observations. The impact of biosphere models in inverse model estimates of NEE is quantified by conducting OSSEs using the NASA-CASA, CASA-GFED, SiB-4, and LPJ models as prior estimates and using NEE from the multi-model ensemble mean of the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project as the “truth”. Results show that the assimilation of simulated XCO2 retrievals at OCO-2 observing modes over land results in posterior NEE estimates which generally reproduce “true” NEE globally and over terrestrial TransCom-3 regions that are well-sampled. However, we find larger spread among posterior NEE estimates, when using different prior NEE fluxes, in regions and seasons that have limited OCO-2 observational coverage and a large range in “bottom-up” NEE fluxes. Seasonally averaged posterior NEE estimates had standard deviations (SD) of ∼10 % to ∼50 % of the multi-model-mean NEE for different TransCom-3 land regions with significant NEE fluxes (regions/seasons with a NEE flux ≥0.5 PgC/yr). On a global average, the seasonally averaged residual impact of the prior model NEE assumption on the posterior NEE spread is ∼10 %–20 % of the posterior NEE mean. Additional OCO-2 OSSE simulations demonstrate that posterior NEE estimates are also sensitive to the assumed prior NEE flux uncertainty statistics, with spread in posterior NEE estimates similar to those when using variable prior model NEE fluxes. In fact, the sensitivity of posterior NEE estimates to prior error statistics was larger than prior flux values in some regions/times in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere where sufficient OCO-2 data were available and large differences between the prior and truth were evident. Overall, even with the availability of spatiotemporally dense OCO-2 data, noticeable residual differences (up to ∼20 %–30 % globally and 50 % regionally) in posterior NEE flux estimates remain that were caused by the choice of prior model flux values and the specification of prior flux uncertainties.

Sajeev Philip↗

State of the science in reconciling top‐down and bottom‐up approaches for terrestrial CO2 budget

Robust estimates of CO2 budget, CO2 exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: “top‐down” atmospheric inversions and “bottom‐up” biosphere models. Since the first studies were undertaken, these approaches have shown an increasing level of agreement, but disagreements in some regions still persist, in part because they do not estimate the same quantity of atmosphere–biosphere CO2 exchange. Here, we conducted a thorough comparison of CO2 budgets at multiple scales and from multiple methods to assess the current state of the science in estimating CO2 budgets. Our set of atmospheric inversions and biosphere models, which were adjusted for a consistent flux definition, showed a high level of agreement for global and hemispheric CO2 budgets in the 2000s. Regionally, improved agreement in CO2 budgets was notable for North America and Southeast Asia. However, large gaps between the two methods remained in East Asia and South America. In other regions, Europe, boreal Asia, Africa, South Asia, and Oceania, it was difficult to determine whether those regions act as a net sink or source because of the large spread in estimates from atmospheric inversions. These results highlight two research directions to improve the robustness of CO2 budgets: (a) to increase representation of processes in biosphere models that could contribute to fill the budget gaps, such as forest regrowth and forest degradation; and (b) to reduce sink–source compensation between regions (dipoles) in atmospheric inversion so that their estimates become more comparable. Advancements on both research areas will increase the level of agreement between the top‐down and bottom‐up approaches and yield more robust knowledge of regional CO2 budgets.

atmospheric inversion↗