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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Influences of Cloud Microphysics on the Components of Solar Irradiance in the WRF-Solar Model

An accurate forecast of Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) in cloudy conditions remains a major challenge in the solar energy industry. This study focuses on the impact of cloud microphysics on GHI and its partition into DNI and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model specifically designed for solar radiation applications (WRF-Solar) and seven microphysical schemes. Three stratocumulus (Sc) and five shallow cumulus (Cu) cases are simulated and evaluated against measurements at the US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Results show that different microphysical schemes lead to spreads in simulated solar irradiance components up to 75% and 350% from their ensemble means in the Cu and Sc cases, respectively. The Cu cases have smaller microphysical sensitivity due to a limited cloud fraction and smaller domain-averaged cloud water mixing ratio compared to Sc cases. Cloud properties also influence the partition of GHI into DNI and DHI, and the model simulates better GHI than DNI and DHI due to a non-physical error compensation between DNI and DHI. The microphysical schemes that produce more accurate liquid water paths and effective radii of cloud droplets have a better overall performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Non-ideal stoichiometry and thermochemistry of aqueous iridium oxide nanoparticles in proton-coupled electron transfer and oxygen-atom transfer

Reported here are reactions of aqueous colloidal IrO x nanoparticles (NPs) with proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) and oxygen-atom transfer (OAT) organic reagents, determining the reaction stoichiometries and thermochemistry. IrO x NPs have attracted much attention for their high electrocatalytic activity, but understanding of their fundamental reaction chemistry is limited. This IrO x NP model system is simple, with UV-vis titrations demonstrating reversible interconversion between predominantly Ir IV and predominantly Ir III NPs. This simplicity allows studies that reveal their complex non-idealities. The NP redox chemistry has a “super-Nernstian” stoichiometry of ∼1.3H + per 1e − transferred during both PCET and OAT reactions, as measured with electrochemistry and chemical methods. Spectroelectrochemistry revealed a broad distribution of surface IrO x –H bond dissociation free energies (BDFEs), becoming weaker as more H is added. Such variation in binding strengths—a non-ideal binding isotherm—is common for surface adsorbates. For IrO x , the variation of BDFE(IrO–H)s is fit well to a Frumkin isotherm with a width of 6.5 kcal mol −1 . For OAT from the reactive oxygen atoms of IrO x NPs, bracketing experiments gave 93 ± 24 kcal mol −1 for the average BDFE(O x Ir–O), with a predicted spread much larger than that for the BDFE(IrO–H). Taken together, the results show the importance of non-ideal stoichiometry and thermochemistry for IrO x NPs, and they open a path to more complete models to understand catalytic redox reactions at such surfaces.

Iridium Oxide Nanoparticles (NPs)↗

Opening remarks: Current and future activities

It is our custom to present the Propagation Program's recent accomplishments and future plans at the onset of a NAPEX meeting. A summary is presented. The data analysis phase of the U.S. Olympus Campaign is nearing its end. The final report will be published by Virginia Tech by midsummer 1993. The report will comprise measurement analysis for 12 months. It will include monthly and annual attenuation statistics and statistics on scintillation effects. A number of prediction models will be presented. The ACTS propagation experiment preparations are moving forward as expected. The mobile/personal channel characterization efforts continued during the last year. Data collected by the University of Texas in 1992 are being analyzed and will become available by September 1993. We have recently started a study to characterize LEO mobile/personal channels. Topics such as indoor reception, tree shadowing, blockage, and delay spread will be investigated. These results will become available in one to two years from now. We have also collected Ka-band mobile data using Olympus 20 GHz beacon transmissions. The University of Texas has already collected five years of low-elevation angle, 11GHz propagation data. The work on database for propagation models has progressed very well. The first release is ready, and the participants of this meeting will receive a copy of the software. We had an active year where CCIR is concerned. An input document on land mobile satellite system (LMSS) propagation models was submitted to the U.S. national committee and was approved and sent to Geneva.

Davarian, Faramaz↗

Crash Testing and Simulation of a Cessna 172 Aircraft: Hard Landing Onto Concrete

A full-scale crash test of a Cessna 172 aircraft was conducted at the Landing and Impact Research Facility at NASA Langley Research Center during the summer of 2015. The purpose of the test was to evaluate the performance of Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs) that were mounted at various locations in the aircraft and to generate impact test data for model validation. A finite element model of the aircraft was developed for execution in LSDYNA to simulate the test. Measured impact conditions were 722.4-in/s forward velocity and 276-in/s vertical velocity with a 1.5deg pitch (nose up) attitude. These conditions were intended to represent a survivable hard landing. The impact surface was concrete. During the test, the nose gear tire impacted the concrete, followed closely by impact of the main gear tires. The main landing gear spread outward, as the nose gear stroked vertically. The only fuselage contact with the impact surface was a slight impact of the rearmost portion of the lower tail. Thus, capturing the behavior of the nose and main landing gear was essential to accurately predict the response. This paper describes the model development and presents test-analysis comparisons in three categories: inertial properties, time sequence of events, and acceleration and velocity time-histories.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales

Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, $R_0$. This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific $R_0$ values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for $R_0$ range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Recent Progress in Understanding the Sun's Magnetic Dynamo

100 years ago we thought that the Sun and stars shone as a result of slow gravitational contraction over a few tens of millions of years - putting astronomers at odds with geologists who claimed that the Earth was much, much older. That mystery was solved in the 1920s and 30s with the discovery of nuclear energy (proving that the geologists had it right all along). Other scientific mysteries concerning the Sun have come and gone but three major mysteries remain: 1) How does the Sun produce sunspots with an 11-year cycle? 2) What produces the huge explosions that result in solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections? and 3) Why is the Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, so darned hot? Recent progress in solar astronomy reveals a single key to understanding all three of these mysteries.The 11-year time scale for the sunspot cycle indicates the presence of a magnetic dynamo within the Sun. For decades this dynamo was though to operate within the Sun's convection zone - the outmost 30% of the Sun where convective currents transport heat and advect magnetic lines of force. The two leading theories for the dynamo had very different models for the dynamics of the convection zone. Actual measurements of the dynamics using the techniques of helioseismology showed that both of these models had to be wrong some 20 years ago. A thin layer of strongly sheared flow at the base of the convection zone (now called the tachocline) was then taken to be the seat of the dynamo. Over the last 10 years it has become apparent that a weak meridional circulation within the convection zone also plays a key role in the dynamo. This meridional circulation has plasma rising up from the tachocline in the equatorial regions, spreading out toward the poles at a top speed of about 10-20 m/s at the surface, sinking back down to the tachocline in the polar regions, and then flowing back toward the equator at a top speed of about 1-2 m/s in the tachocline itself. Recent dynamo models that include this meridional flow now appear to have some power for predicting the size of future sunspot cycles.

Hathaway, David. H.↗

Effective dissipation rate in a Liouvillian-graph picture of high-temperature quantum hydrodynamics

At high temperature, generic strongly interacting spin systems are expected to display hydrodynamics: local transport of conserved quantities, governed by classical partial differential equations like the diffusion equation. I argue that the emergence of this dissipative long-wavelength dynamics from the system's unitary microscopic dynamics is controlled by the structure of the Liouvillian graph of the system's Hamiltonian, that is, the graph induced on Pauli strings by commutation with that Hamiltonian. The Liouvillian graph decomposes naturally into subgraphs of Pauli strings of constant diameter, and the coherent dynamics of these subgraphs determines the rate at which operator weight spreads to long operators. In conclusion, this argument provides a quantitative theory of the emergence of a dissipative effective dynamics from unitary microscopic dynamics; it also leads to an effective model with Hilbert space dimension linear in system size and exponential in the UV cutoff for diffusion.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system’s geographical hierarchy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Communication performance over the TDRS multipath/interference channel

Previously developed models are used to predict communication system performance for two cases: and aircraft/TDRS and a weather satellite/TDRS relay. The magnitude of multipath, differential time delay, Doppler shift, time and Doppler spread, and interference expected to be encountered are reviewed and applied to the two cases of interest.

Jenny, J.↗

Analysis of two-dimensional free turbulent mixing

The observed large reduction in spreading rate of adiabatic high-Mach-number free turbulent shear layers has been predicted successfully for the first time by a mean turbulent energy closure method using a new model for a specified pressure-dilitation correlation. A physical mechanism that produces this correlation has been hypothesized based on an eddy shock wave concept. This hypothesis indicates that the correlation would act like a turbulence energy sink or source according to whether the transverse gradients of mean Mach number and mean density have the same or opposite signs, respectively.

Oh, Y. H.↗

Studies of aircraft wake chemistry and dispersion

Use of aerospace technology to study aircraft wakes is reviewed. It is shown how aerospace vehicles can be used to provide data for increased understanding of the atmosphere and of aircraft exhaust trails where knowledge is inadequate to evaluate fully the potential impact of the engine emissions. Models of aircraft near-field exhaust wakes are characterized by jet, vortex, and dispersion regimes. Wake growth in the jet regime is self-determined and rapid, whereas further spreading is inhibited in the vortex regime because of circulating vortex motion. Wake diffusion in the dispersion regime is initially influenced by aircraft induced turbulence but is dominated later by small-scale atmospheric turbulence. Computed fluid mechanical results show the importance of effects such as wake buoyancy, wind shear, turbulence, and traffic corridor exhaust buildup on dispersion of the wake. In the jet regime the exhaust characteristics and thermochemistry serve to illustrate initial chemical changes involving potential pollutant species.

Poppoff, I. G.↗

Interactive multi-mode blade impact analysis

The theoretical methodology used in developing an analysis for the response of turbine engine fan blades subjected to soft-body (bird) impacts is reported, and the computer program developed using this methodology as its basis is described. This computer program is an outgrowth of two programs that were previously developed for the purpose of studying problems of a similar nature (a 3-mode beam impact analysis and a multi-mode beam impact analysis). The present program utilizes an improved missile model that is interactively coupled with blade motion which is more consistent with actual observations. It takes into account local deformation at the impact area, blade camber effects, and the spreading of the impacted missile mass on the blade surface. In addition, it accommodates plate-type mode shapes. The analysis capability in this computer program represents a significant improvement in the development of the methodology for evaluating potential fan blade materials and designs with regard to foreign object impact resistance.

Alexander, A.↗

Solar Power Satellite antenna phase control system hardware simulation, phase 4. Volume 2: Analytical simulation of SPS system performance

The pilot signal parameter optimization and power transponder analyses are presented. The SPS antenna phase control system is modeled and the hardware simulation study described. Ionospheric and system phase error effects and the effects of high power amplifier phase and amplitude jitters are considered. Parameter optimization of the spread spectrum receiver, consisting of the carrier tracking loop and the code tracking loop, is described.

Lindsey, W. C.↗

Interactive multi-mode blade impact analysis

This paper describes the theoretical methodology used in developing an analysis for the response of turbine engine fan blades subjected to soft body (bird) impacts and the computer program that was developed using this methodology as its basis. This computer program is an outgrowth of two programs that were previously developed for the purpose of studying problems of a similar nature (a three-mode beam impact analysis and a multi-mode beam impact analysis). The present program utilizes an improved missile model that is interactively coupled with blade motion which is more consistent with actual observations. It takes into account local deformation at the impact area, blade camber effects, and the spreading of the impacted missile mass on the blade surface. In addition, it accommodates plate-type mode shapes. The analysis capability in this computer program represents a significant improvement in the development of the methodology for evaluating potential fan blade materials and designs with regard to foreign object impact resistance.

Alexander, A.↗

Dendritic sidebranching in the three-dimensional symmetric model in the presence of noise

The time-dependent behavior of sidebranching deformations in the three-dimensional symmetric model of dendritic solidification is studied within a WKB approximation. Localized wave packets generated by pulses in the neighborhood of the tip are found to grow in amplitude and to spread and stretch as they move down the sides of the dendrite. This behavior is shown to imply that noise in the solidifying medium is selectively amplified in such a way as to produce a fluctuating train of sidebranches in qualitative agreement with experimental observations. A rough estimate indicates that purely thermal noise is probably not quite strong enough to fit the data.

Langer, J. S.↗

An explanation for Neptune's ring arcs

The Voyager mission revealed a complex system of rings and ring arcs around Neptune and uncovered six new satellites, four of which occupy orbits well inside the ring region. Analysis of Voyager data shows that a radial distortion with an amplitude of approximately 30 kilometers is traveling through the ring arcs, a perturbation attributable to the nearby satellite Galatea. Moreover, the arcs appear to be azimuthally confined by a resonant interaction with the same satellite, yielding a maximum spread in ring particle semimajor axes of 0.6 kilometer and a spread in forced eccentricities large enough to explain the arc's 15-kilometer radial widths. Additional ring arcs discovered in the course of this study give further support to this model.

Porco, Carolyn C.↗

Evolution of the Quadrantid meteor stream

According to previous orbital calculations, the last close approach of the Quadrantid stream with Jupiter occurred 3200 years ago at which time the parent comet of the stream may have been captured into its present short-period orbit. If this is the case the stream may only be a few thousand years old. We have modeled the evolution of the stream to determine if such a short time scale is consistent with the observed features of the Quadrantid/ delta- Aquarid/Arietid/Ursid complex. A detailed modeling of a stream consisting of 500 test particles released 4000 yr ago and which included the effects of the gravitational perturbations of 6 planets as well as the likely spread in the initial orbital elements resulting from the ejection of the grains from the comet was carried out. Our calculations indicate that an intense shower should be seen a few days before the Quadrantid shower, and that, 4000 yr is too short a period for the branch corresponding to the D-Arietid branch to appear. We have considered the quasi-constants of motion 1/a and J, the Tisserand quantity, and find that the Ursids and the D-Arietids are unlikely to be members of the complex, and that, the complex is probably be less than 4000 yr old.

Jones, James↗