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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

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NASA NTRS1990

Solar constant secular changes

A recent model for solar constant secular changes is used to calculate a 'proxy' solar constant for: (1) the past four centuries, based upon the sunspot record, (2) the past nine centuries, based upon C-14 observations and their relation to solar activity, and (3) the next decade, based upon a dynamo theory model for the solar cycle. The proxy solar constant data is tabulated as it may be useful for climate modelers studying global climate changes.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Cosmic-ray isotopic composition of C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si nuclei in the energy range 50-200 MeV per nucleon measured by the Voyager spacecraft during the solar minimum period

The isotopic composition of C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si cosmic ray nuclei has been measured in the energy range 50-200 MeV per nucleon using data collected by the High-Energy Telescope of the cosmic-ray subsystem experiment on the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft. These data were collected during the period of minimum solar activity in 1986-1988 at an average distance of 27 AU with an effective solar modulation that was much less than at the Earth. The isotope analysis, based on the energy loss - total energy method, has a mass resolution of 0.2 amu for carbon and 0.4 amu at silicon. We find a (C-13)/(C-12) ratio slightly lower and a (O-18)/(O-16) ratio slightly enhanced over their solar system value. We also observe the previously reported enhancement of the (Ne-22)/(Ne-20) ratio relative to solar at the cosmic-ray source but only a weak, if any, enhancement of the (Mg-25)/(Mg-24), (Mg-26)/(Mg 24), and (Si-30)/(Si-28) ratios.

Lukasiak, A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Galactic cosmic radiation model and its applications

A model for the differential energy spectra of galactic cosmic radiation as a function of solar activity is described. It is based on the standard diffusion-convection theory of solar modulation. Estimates of the modulation potential based on fitting this theory to observed spectral measurements from 1954 to 1989 are correlated to the Climax neutron counting rates and to the sunspot numbers at earlier times taking into account the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field at the time of observations. These regression lines then provide a method for predicting the modulation at later times. The results of this model are quantitatively compared to a similar Moscow State University (MSU) model. These model cosmic ray spectra are used to predict the linear energy transfer spectra, differential energy spectra of light (charge less than or = 2) ions, and single event upsets rates in memeory devices. These calculations are compared to observations made aboard the Space Shuttle.

Badhwar, G. D.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Early Energetic Particle Irradiation of the HED Parent Body Regolith

Previous studies have shown that many individual grains within the dark phase of the Kapoeta howardite were irradiated with energetic particles while residing on the surface of the early HED regolith. Particle tracks in these grains vary in density by more than an order of magnitude and undoubtedly were formed by energetic heavy (Fe) ions associated with early solar flares. Early Irradiation of HED Regolith: Concentrations of excess Ne alone are not sufficient to decide between competing galactic and solar irradiation models. However, from recent studies of depth samples of oriented lunar rocks, we have shown that the cosmogenic 21-Ne/22-Ne ratio produced in feldspar differs substantially between Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) and solar protons, and that this difference is exactly that predicted from cross-section data. Using Ne literature data and new isotopic data we obtained on acid-etched, separated feldspar from both the light and dark phases of Kapoeta, we derive 21-Ne/22-Ne = 0.80 for the recent GCR irradiation and 21-Ne/22-Ne = 0.68 for the early regolith irradiation. This derived ratio indicates that the early Ne production in the regolith occurred by both galactic and solar protons. If we adopt a likely one-component regolith model in which all grains were exposed to galactic protons but individual grains had variable exposure to solar protons, we estimate that this early GCR irradiation lasted for about 3-6 m.y. More complex two-component regolith models involving separate solar and galactic irradiation would permit this GCR age to be longer. Higher-energy solar protons would permit the GCR to be longer. Higher-energy solar protons would permit the GCR age to be shorter. Further, cosmogenic 126(Xe) in Kapoeta dark is no more than a factor of about 2 higher than that observed in Kapoeta light. Because 126(Xe) can only be formed by galactic protons and not solar protons, these data support a short GCR irradiation for the HED regolith. This would also be the maximum time peRiod for the solar irradiation. Various asteroidal regolith models, based on Monte Carlo modeling of impact rates as a function of size and on irradiation features of meteorites, predict surface exposure times of about 0.1 to 10 m.y., and depend on such factors as gravity, rock mechanical properties, and micrometeoroid flux. Because the depth at which solar Fe tracks are produced (is much less than 1 micrometer) is much less than the depth at which Solar Cosmic Rays (SCR) Ne is produced (about 1 cm), for a reasonably well-stirred HED regolith the "surface exposure time" for SCR 21-Ne production should be significantly longer than that for solar tracks and some other surface irradiation features. Enhanced Solar Proton Irradiation: For bulk samples of Kapoeta dark feldspar and a one-component regolith model, the derived ratio of 21-Ne/22-Ne = 0.68 implies that the early production ratio of SCR 21-Ne to GCR 21-Ne was about 0.5-1.5. This ratio is independent of any assumptions about the fraction of dark grains that are irradiated or of the variability in the degree of solar irradiation among grains. The 21-Ne SCR/GCR ratio indirectly derived from bulk Kapoeta pyroxene is somewhat larger, as is the ratio derived for simple two-component regolith models. Individual feldspar grains that were extensively solar irradiated would require even larger 21-Ne SCR/GCR production ratios. In contrast, the theoretical SCR/GCR production ratio for lunar feldspar with 0 g/CM2 shield ing is is less than or equal to 2, and the lowest ratio observed in near-surface samples of lunar anorthosites is less than or equal to 1. Considering the greater solar distance of Vesta (compared to the Moon), the likelihood that SCR 21-Ne was acquired under some shielding where production rates are lower, and the likelihood that the exposure time to galactic protons exceeded the exposure time to solar protons because of their very different penetration depths, the 21-Ne SCR/GCR production ratio on the HED parent body was probably < 0.1. The relatively large difference between the derived 21-Ne SCR/GCR ratio in Kapoeta dark feldspar and the estimated production ratio strongly indicates that the early solar irradiation involved a flux -20-50x the recent solar flux. This enhanced proton flux was probably associated with an overall greater solar activity in the first approximately 10(exp 7) to 10(exp 8) years of solar history.

Bogard, D. D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Starshine Hitchhiker Mission on STS-96

A mirrored, spherical "Starshine" satellite was ejected by NASA into a circular low Earth orbit from a Hitchhiker canister in the cargo bay of Space Shuttle OV-103 Discovery at 07:21 Universal Time on June 5, 1999, near the end of Discovery's STS-96 mission to the International Space Station. Starshine's initial orbital altitude was 218 Nautical Miles (387 km), and its orbital inclination was 51.6 deg. The satellite is expected to orbit Earth until sometime in January 2000, when it will reenter the atmosphere and vaporize. Some 25,030 students in 700 schools around the world participated in the construction of this satellite by polishing 878 small, front-surface aluminum mirrors that stud its outer surface. A small fraction of those students is presently tracking the satellite and measuring its angular position at specific times. The Naval Research Laboratory is combining the students' measurements with Naval Space Command radar tracking data to compute the satellite's orbit on a daily basis. From the rate of decay of the orbit, the students are able to calculate the density of the atmosphere at the satellite's present altitude. The students are also accessing the project's web site to observe ground-based and space-based images of the sun and other indices of solar activity. They are then using these data to make correlations between the intensity of solar storms and fluctuations in the density of the earth's upper atmosphere. The number of students participating in the tracking phase of the project is expected to increase dramatically at the start of the fall school term in the northern hemisphere. At the conclusion of the Starshine mission, the student team will attempt to predict when and where the satellite will re-enter the atmosphere, so they can compete for a cash prize for the best photograph of the satellite's fiery demise.

Moore, Gil↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Formation of CIRs at Stream-Stream Interfaces and Resultant Geomagnetic Activity

Corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are regions of compressed plasma formed at the leading edges of corotating high-speed solar wind streams originating in coronal holes as they interact with the preceding slow solar wind. Although particularly prominent features of the solar wind during the declining and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, they may also be present at times of higher solar activity. We describe how CIRs are formed, and their geomagnetic effects, which principally result from brief southward interplanetary magnetic field excursions associated with Alfven waves. Seasonal and long-term variations in these effects are briefly discussed.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Editorial: Understanding the Causes of Asymmetries in Earth’S Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System

Geomagnetic activity observed in geospace, the upper atmosphere, and on the ground results from solar-terrestrial interactions. Such interactions correspond to the coupling between the solar wind, magnetosphere, and the thermosphere-ionosphere (MIT) system (Khazanov, 2016). However, given the complexity of the whole system and its large spatial scale and long-term solar variability, effects resulting from this coupling can be asymmetric. For example, inter-hemispherical asymmetric responses can arise when a hemisphere receives more energy than the other (e.g., Knipp et al., 2021; Pakhotin et al., 2021), local time effects can take place due to the occurrence of intense dawn-dusk interplanetary electric fields (e.g.,Haaland et al., 2017), and asymmetric geomagnetic field and mapping are caused by the Earth’s dipole offset and tilt (e.g., Laundal et al., 2017). The drivers that generate asymmetric MIT coupling response are generally recognized as long term: solar activity (Zhang et al., 2022) and dipole offset and tilt (Laundal et al., 2017); middle term: seasons (Lu et al., 2010); and short term: the y and z components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) (Cowley, 1981; Li et al., 2011; Knipp et al., 2021). Thermospheric neutral mass density can present local time asymmetries associated with IMF By (Forster et al., 2017), and inter-hemispheric asymmetries can be generated by cross-hemispheric propagation of large-scale gravity waves (Bruinsma and Forbes, 2007). In addition, forcing from the mesosphere and lower thermosphere can generate inter-hemispheric neutral wind asymmetric patterns that can in turn asymmetrically impact neutral density in different hemispheres (Stober et al., 2021).

magnetosphere-ionophere coupling↗

NASA NTRS1995

Active region seismology

Active region seismology is concerned with the determination and interpretation of the interaction of the solar acoustic oscillations with near-surface target structures, such as magnetic flux concentration, sunspots, and plage. Recent observations made with a high spatial resolution and a long temporal duration enabled measurements of the scattering matrix for sunspots and solar active regions to be carried out as a function of the mode properties. Based on this information, the amount of p-mode absorption, partial-wave phase shift, and mode mixing introduced by the sunspot, could be determined. In addition, the possibility of detecting the presence of completely submerged magnetic fields was raised, and new procedures for performing acoustic holography of the solar interior are being developed. The accumulating evidence points to the mode conversion of p-modes to various magneto-atmospheric waves within the magnetic flux concentration as being the unifying physical mechanism responsible for these diverse phenomena.

Bogdan, Tom↗

NASA NTRS2003

SORCE and Future Satellite Observations of Solar Irradiance

With solar activity just passing the maximum of cycle 23, SORCE is beginning a 5 year mission to measure total solar irradiance (TSI) with unprecedented accuracy using phase-sensitive detection, and to measure spectral solar irradiance (SSI) with unprecedented spectral coverage, from 1 to 2000 nm. The new Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) has 4 active cavity radiometers, any one of which can be used as a fixed-temperature reference against any other that is exposed to the Sun via a shutter that cycles at a rate designed to minimize noise at the shutter frequency. The new Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) is a dual Fery prism spectrometer that can employ either prism as a monochromatic source on the other prism, thus monitoring its transmission during the mission lifetime. Either prism can measure SSI from 200 to 2000 nm, employing the same phase-sensitive electrical substitution strategy as TIM. SORCE also carries dual SOLSTICE instruments to cover the spectral range 100-320 nm, similar to the instruments onboard UARS, and also an XUV Photometer System (XPS) similar to that on TIMED. SSI has now been added to TSI as a requirement of EOS and NPOESS, because different spectral components drive different components of the climate system - UV into upper atmosphere and stratospheric ozone, IR into tropospheric water vapor and clouds, and Visible into the oceans and biosphere. Succeeding satellite missions being planned for 2006 and 2011 will continue to monitor these critical solar variables.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

DOE OSTI2016

PREDICTING CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS USING MACHINE LEARNING METHODS

Of all the activity observed on the Sun, two of the most energetic events are flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Usually, solar active regions that produce large flares will also produce a CME, but this is not always true. Despite advances in numerical modeling, it is still unclear which circumstances will produce a CME. Therefore, it is worthwhile to empirically determine which features distinguish flares associated with CMEs from flares that are not. At this time, no extensive study has used physically meaningful features of active regions to distinguish between these two populations. As such, we attempt to do so by using features derived from (1) photospheric vector magnetic field data taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory ’s Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument and (2) X-ray flux data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite’s X-ray Flux instrument. We build a catalog of active regions that either produced both a flare and a CME (the positive class) or simply a flare (the negative class). We then use machine-learning algorithms to (1) determine which features distinguish these two populations, and (2) forecast whether an active region that produces an M- or X-class flare will also produce a CME. We compute the True Skill Statistic, a forecast verification metric, and find that it is a relatively high value of ∼0.8 ± 0.2. We conclude that a combination of six parameters, which are all intensive in nature, will capture most of the relevant information contained in the photospheric magnetic field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1978

Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21

On physical grounds it is suggested that the polar field strength of the sun near a solar minimum is closely related to the solar activity of the following cycle. Four methods of estimating the polar magnetic field strength of the sun near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of the yearly mean sunspot number of cycle 21 at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimate may be considered a first-order attempt to predict the cycle activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Torsional waves on the sun and the activity cycle

The detailed relation of the sun's torsional oscillation velocity feature to magnetic activity indicates (1) that these motions represent a fundamental oscillation within the sun which is responsible for the solar activity cycle, and (2) that they are not a natural consequence of an alpha-omega dynamo. It is demonstrated that a solar torsional oscillation with wave number 1/hemisphere exists.

Labonte, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-‐based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 – 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 – 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

Data Assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Can the Solar Atmosphere Generate Very-High-Energy Cosmic Rays?

The origin and acceleration of high-energy particles, constituting cosmic rays, is likely to remain an important topic in modern astrophysics. Among the two categories galactic and solar cosmic rays, the latter are much less investigated. The primary source of solar cosmic ray particles are impulsive explosions of the magnetized plasma, known as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. These particles, however, are characterized by relatively low energies compared to their galactic counterparts. In this work, we explore the resonance wave–wave (RWW) interaction between the polarized electromagnetic radiation emitted by the solar active regions and the quantum waves associated with high-energy, relativistic electrons generated during solar flares. Mathematically, the RWW interaction problem boils down to analyzing a Klein–Gordon Equation (spinless electrons) embedded in the electromagnetic field. We find that RWW could accelerate the relativistic electrons to enormous energies even comparable to energies in the galactic cosmic rays.

acceleration of particles↗

NASA NTRS1972

Helium abundance variations

Using observations of the solar wind by Explorers 34 and 43, the relationship is confirmed between the relative abundance of helium n sub alpha/n sub p and the bulk speed U of the wind, recently described by Hirschberg, Asbridge and Robbins. Use of this relationship n sub alpha/n sub p = a(t)+bU allows the dependence of the relative abundance of helium upon solar activity to be separated from its bulk speed dependence. The proportion of helium in the solar wind at a given bulk speed is found to increase with increasing sunspot number, averaged over the period of observation. It is shown that the relationship between average relative abundance and temperature, deduced using the bulk speed - temperature relation, is consistent with the data. The relative abundance of helium is not found to increase with increasing solar wind flux. This confirms the result of Hirschberg et al, and contradicts the theoretical prediction of Geiss.

Ogilvie, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Long-term migration of the solar sector structure

The magnetic sector boundaries on the sun and in the solar wind are shown to have a high correlation with winter low pressure systems on earth. The vorticity-area index typically declines by about 10% during several days centered on the time when a sector boundary sweeps past the earth. Evidence that both the sector structure and solar activity levels can be understood as being under the influence of the same regular, internal solar mechanism is presented.

Wolff, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Pioneer 10 at Silver Au Describes Sun's atmosphere

Almost 4 billion kilometers from the Sun, Pioneer 10's findings paint a detailed picture of the solar atmosphere. The heliosphere is now believed to be a huge magnetic bubble created by the solar wind and gets its tear-shape from streamlining due to the motion of the solar system through the interstellar gas. The skin of the bubble, the region between stellar and interstellar gas, is believed to lie between 50 and 100 AU from the Sun. The solar wind drags the Sun's magnetic field with it. The bubble, probably extends far beyond Pluto, and is believed to breathe, expanding and contracting like a giant cosmic lung with each 11 year cycle. The most recent findings show that as storms on the Sun build up toward maximum solar activity, they send out shock waves throughout the bubble which cause ripples. This long lived solar storm turbulence accelerates low energy cosmic ray particles coming in from the galaxy, deflecting them out of the solar system, and shielding the planets. As distance from the Sun increases, more and more cosmic ray particles penetrate the heliosphere.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar modulation of energetic particles and cosmic-ray deposition

The intensity of energetic charged particles (cosmic rays) in the inner solar system is observed to vary with time over a variety of time scales. The sun is the ultimate cause of these variations, although in some cases the precise mechanism leading to the change is not yet known. Cosmic rays of solar origin are produced sporadically in solar flares. The events can be intense and last for hours (high energies) to days (lower energies), and the variation from event to event is large. Below roughly 200 MeV energy the intensity averaged over a solar cycle is dominated by solar cosmic rays, so that time variations below this energy are governed by the variations in the frequency and intensity of solar flares. Galactic cosmic rays are present continuously and dominate the average intensity above about 200 MeV. They are 'modulated' by the sun and have their lowest intensity during high solar activity. The physical agent causing changes in the galactic cosmic ray intensity is the solar-wind-entrained magnetic field. The impact of our still somewhat limited understanding of shorter-term variations (over one or two solar cycles) upon the interpretation of longer-term variations is briefly discussed.

Jokipii, J. R.↗