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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2014

Inhibition of CDC25B Phosphatase Through Disruption of Protein–Protein Interaction

CDC25 phosphatases are key cell cycle regulators and represent very attractive but challenging targets for anticancer drug discovery. Here in this paper, we explored whether fragment-based screening represents a valid approach to identify inhibitors of CDC25B. This resulted in identification of 2-fluoro-4-hydroxybenzonitrile, which directly binds to the catalytic domain of CDC25B. Interestingly, NMR data and the crystal structure demonstrate that this compound binds to the pocket distant from the active site and adjacent to the protein–protein interaction interface with CDK2/Cyclin A substrate. Furthermore, we developed a more potent analogue that disrupts CDC25B interaction with CDK2/Cyclin A and inhibits dephosphorylation of CDK2. Based on these studies, we provide a proof of concept that targeting CDC25 phosphatases by inhibiting their protein–protein interactions with CDK2/Cyclin A substrate represents a novel, viable opportunity to target this important class of enzymes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Methodology for Formulating Diesel Surrogate Fuels with Accurate Compositional, Ignition-Quality, and Volatility Characteristics

In this study, a novel approach was developed to formulate surrogate fuels having characteristics that are representative of diesel fuels produced from real-world refinery streams. Because diesel fuels typically consist of hundreds of compounds, it is difficult to conclusively determine the effects of fuel composition on combustion properties. Surrogate fuels, being simpler representations of these practical fuels, are of interest because they can provide a better understanding of fundamental fuel-composition and property effects on combustion and emissions-formation processes in internal-combustion engines. In addition, the application of surrogate fuels in numerical simulations with accurate vaporization, mixing, and combustion models could revolutionize future engine designs by enabling computational optimization for evolving real fuels. Dependable computational design would not only improve engine function, it would do so at significant cost savings relative to current optimization strategies that rely on physical testing of hardware prototypes. The approach in this study utilized the stateof- the-art techniques of 13C and 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and the advanced distillation curve to characterize fuel composition and volatility, respectively. The ignition quality was quantified by the derived cetane number. Two wellcharacterized, ultra-low-sulfur #2 diesel reference fuels produced from refinery streams were used as target fuels: a 2007 emissions certification fuel and a Coordinating Research Council (CRC) Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines (FACE) diesel fuel. A surrogate was created for each target fuel by blending eight pure compounds. The known carbon bond types within the pure compounds, as well as models for the ignition qualities and volatilities of their mixtures, were used in a multiproperty regression algorithm to determine optimal surrogate formulations. The predicted and measured surrogate-fuel properties were quantitatively compared to the measured target-fuel properties, and good agreement was found. This paper is dedicated to the memory of our friend and colleague Jim Franz. Funding for this research was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) Office of Vehicle Technologies, and by the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) and the companies that employ the CRC members. The study was conducted under the auspices of CRC. The authors thank U.S. DOE program manager Kevin Stork for supporting the participation of the U.S. national laboratories in this study.

Mueller, Charles J↗

DOE OSTI2014

Direct Conversion of Syngas-to-Hydrocarbons over Higher Alcohols Synthesis Catalysts Mixed with HZSM-5

The synthesis of hydrocarbon fuels directly from synthesis gas (i.e. one step process) was investigated with a catalytic system comprised of HZSM-5 physically mixed with either a methanol synthesis catalyst or a higher alcohols synthesis (HAS) catalyst. The metal sites of the methanol or HAS synthesis catalyst enable the conversion of syngas to alcohols, whereas HZSM-5 provides acid sites required for methanol dehydration, and dimethyl ether-to-hydrocarbons reactions. Catalytic performance for HZSM-5 when mixed with either a 5 wt.% Pd/ZnO/Al2O3 methanol synthesis catalyst or a HAS catalyst was evaluated at 300°C, 70 bars, GHSV=700 h-1 and H2/CO=1 using a HZSM-5: alcohols synthesis catalyst weight ratio of 3:1. The major difference observed between the methanol synthesis and HAS catalyst mixtures was found in the production of durene which is an undesirable byproduct. While durene formation is negligible with any of the HAS catalysts mixed with the HZSM-5 evaluated in this study, it represents almost 50% of the C5+ fraction for the methanol synthesis catalyst (5 wt.% Pd/ZnO/Al2O3 ) mixed with HZSM-5. This presents an advantage for using HAS catalysts over the methanol synthesis catalyst to minimize the durene by-product. The yield toward the desired C5+ hydrocarbons is thus twice higher with selected HAS catalysts as compared to when HZSM-5 is mixed with 5 wt.% Pd/ZnO/Al2O3. Among all the HAS catalysts evaluated in this study, a catalyst with 0.5 wt.% Pd/FeCoCu catalyst was found the most promising due to higher production of C5+ hydrocarbons and low durene formation. The efficiency of the one-step process was thus further evaluated using the HZSM-5: 0.5 wt.% Pd/FeCoCu catalyst mixture under a number of process conditions to maximize liquid hydrocarbons product yield. At 300oC, 70 bars, GHSV = 700 h-1 and HZSM-5: 0.5 wt.% Pd/FeCoCu = 3:1 (wt.), the C5+ fraction represents 48.5% of the hydrocarbons. Unfortunately, it is more difficult to achieve higher selectivity to desired C5+ hydrocarbons as the formation of CO2, CH4, and other light hydrocarbons is challenging to suppress in the presence of mixed metal and acid sites. When the 0.5 wt.% Pd/FeCoCu and HZSM-5 are operated sequentially by way of a two-step process the C5+ hydrocarbons fraction is lower and represents 30.4% of the hydrocarbons under comparable conditions. The yield toward the C5+ hydrocarbons is twice higher for the one-step process due to an improved CO conversion and higher C5+ hydrocarbons fraction. The main advantage of the one-step process is that higher syngas conversion can be achieved as the equilibrium-driven conversion limitations for methanol and dimethyl ether are removed since they are intermediates to the final hydrocarbons product.

alcohols-to-hydrocarbons↗

DOE OSTI2019

Mathematical Reconstruction of Land Carbon Models From Their Numerical Output: Computing Soil Radiocarbon From C Dynamics

Radiocarbon ( 14 C) is a powerful tracer of the global carbon cycle that is commonly used to assess carbon cycling rates in various Earth system reservoirs and as a benchmark to assess model performance. Therefore, it has been recommended that Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 report predicted radiocarbon values for relevant carbon pools. However, a detailed representation of radiocarbon dynamics may be an impractical burden on model developers. Here, we present an alternative approach to compute radiocarbon values from the numerical output of an ESM that does not explicitly represent these dynamics. The approach requires computed 12 C stocks and fluxes among all carbon pools for a particular simulation of the model. From this output, a time-dependent linear compartmental system is computed with its respective state-transition matrix. Using transient atmospheric 14 C values as inputs, the state-transition matrix is then applied to compute radiocarbon values for each pool, the average value for the entire system, and component fluxes. We demonstrate the approach with ELMv1-ECA, the land component of an ESM model that explicitly represents 12 C, and 14 C in 7 soil pools and 10 vertical layers. Results from our proposed method are highly accurate (relative error <0.01%) compared with the ELMv1-ECA 12 C and 14 C predictions, demonstrating the potential to use this approach in CMIP6 and other model simulations that do not explicitly represent 14 C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Incorporating Microtopography in a Land Surface Model and Quantifying the Effect on the Carbon Cycle

Abstract Northern peatlands are a terrestrial carbon store, with an annual sink of 0.1 Pg C yr −1 and a total storage estimate of 547 Pg C. Northern peatlands are also major contributors of atmospheric methane. Most land surface models do not accurately represent peatland carbon emissions, partly because they do not represent the hydrologic cycle and/or microtopography adequately. Interactions between water table depth and microtopography in peatlands influence decomposition and modulate CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. A modified version of the land surface component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, was recently created to represent the microtopography and hydrology of a raised dome bog in northern Minnesota, USA. In this study, three microtopographic parameters are analyzed in the modified version: hummock height, hummock‐hollow spacing, and percent hollow. Terrestrial laser scanning observations are used to set uncertainty bounds for these parameters. Our model experiment results suggest that carbon‐related quantities of interest (QOI) were typically the most sensitive to hummock height, and those QOI (especially net ecosystem exchange, NEE) were sensitive to interactions between parameters. Furthermore, NEE was most relatively influenced by microtopographic parameters in the model, varying by 35%. We found that increasing hummock height resulted in more C being stored in plant tissue and less in soil organic matter. This coincided with decreases in Sphagnum and increases in Picea and shrub net primary production. These results suggest that future studies may consider extending prognostic capabilities of carbon cycling by incorporating hummock hollow microtopography into earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Decentralized Approach for Modeling Organized Convection Based on Thermal Populations on Microgrids

Abstract In this study, a spectral model for convective transport is coupled to a thermal population model on a two‐dimensional horizontal “microgrid,” covering the typical gridbox size of general circulation models. The goal is to explore new ways of representing impacts of spatial organization in cumulus cloud fields. The thermals are considered the smallest building block of convection, with thermal life cycle and movement represented through binomial functions. Thermals interact through two simple rules, reflecting pulsating growth and environmental deformation. Long‐lived thermal clusters thus form on the microgrid, exhibiting scale growth and spacing that represent simple forms of spatial organization and memory. Size distributions of cluster number are diagnosed from the microgrid through an online clustering algorithm, and provided as input to a spectral multiplume eddy‐diffusivity mass flux scheme. This yields a decentralized transport system, in that the thermal clusters acting as independent but interacting nodes that carry information about spatial structure. The main objectives of this study are (a) to seek proof of concept of this approach, and (b) to gain insight into impacts of spatial organization on convective transport. Single‐column model experiments demonstrate satisfactory skill in reproducing two observed cases of continental shallow convection. Metrics expressing self‐organization and spatial organization match well with large‐eddy simulation results. We find that in this coupled system, spatial organization impacts convective transport primarily through the scale break in the size distribution of cluster number. The rooting of saturated plumes in the subcloud mixed layer plays a key role in this process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Convective Momentum Transport and Its Impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in E3SM‐MMF

Abstract Convective momentum transport (CMT) is the process of vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum by small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection. Traditional general circulation models (GCMs) and their multiscale modeling framework (MMF) versions poorly represent CMT due to insufficient information of subgrid‐scale flows at each GCM grid. Here the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme for representing CMT is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) with embedded 2‐D cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), and verified against E3SM‐MMF simulations with 3‐D CRMs and observations. The results show that representing CMT by ESMT helps reduce climatological mean precipitation model bias over the western Pacific and the ITCZ regions, which is attributed to the weakened mean easterlies over the Pacific. Also, CMT from simulations with 2‐D and 3‐D CRMs impose a similar impact on Kelvin waves by reducing their variability and slowing down their phase speed, but opposite impacts on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability. The ESMT scheme readily captures the climatological mean spatial patterns of the zonal and meridional components of CMT and their variability across multiple time scales, but shows some differences in estimating its magnitude. CMT mainly affects the MJO by decelerating its winds in the free troposphere, but accelerates its near‐surface winds. This study serves as a prototype for implementing CMT scheme in the MMF simulations, highlighting its crucial role in reducing model bias in mean state and spatiotemporal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Global Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen Biogeochemical Cycles With Implicit and Explicit Representations of Soil Microbial Activity

Abstract Nutrient limitation is widespread in terrestrial ecosystems. Accordingly, representations of nitrogen (N) limitation in land models typically dampen rates of terrestrial carbon (C) accrual, compared with C‐only simulations. These previous findings, however, rely on soil biogeochemical models that implicitly represent microbial activity and physiology. Here we present results from a biogeochemical model testbed that allows us to investigate how an explicit versus implicit representation of soil microbial activity, as represented in the MIcrobial‐MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) and Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) soil biogeochemical models, respectively, influence plant productivity, and terrestrial C and N fluxes at initialization and over the historical period. When forced with common boundary conditions, larger soil C pools simulated by the MIMICS model reflect longer inferred soil organic matter (SOM) turnover times than those simulated by CASA. At steady state, terrestrial ecosystems experience greater N limitation when using the MIMICS‐CN model, which also increases the inferred SOM turnover time. Over the historical period, however, warming‐induced acceleration of SOM decomposition over high latitude ecosystems increases rates of N mineralization in MIMICS‐CN. This reduces N limitation and results in faster rates of vegetation C accrual. Moreover, as SOM stoichiometry is an emergent property of MIMICS‐CN, we highlight opportunities to deepen understanding of sources of persistent SOM and explore its potential sensitivity to environmental change. Our findings underscore the need to improve understanding and representation of plant and microbial resource allocation and competition in land models that represent coupled biogeochemical cycles under global change scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses

Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Lake Biogeochemistry Model for Global Methane Emissions: Model Development, Site‐Level Validation, and Global Applicability

Abstract Lakes are important sentinels of climate change and may contribute over 30% of natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions; however, no earth system model (ESM) has represented lake CH 4 dynamics. To fill this gap, we refined a process‐based lake biogeochemical model to simulate global lake CH 4 emissions, including representation of lake bathymetry, oxic methane production (OMP), the effect of water level on ebullition, new non‐linear CH 4 oxidation kinetics, and the coupling of sediment carbon pools with in‐lake primary production and terrigenous carbon loadings. We compiled a lake CH 4 data set for model validation. The model shows promising performance in capturing the seasonal and inter‐annual variabilities of CH 4 emissions at 10 representative lakes for different lake types and the variations in mean annual CH 4 emissions among 106 lakes across the globe. The model reproduces the variations of the observed surface CH 4 diffusion and ebullition along the gradients of lake latitude, depth, and surface area. The results suggest that OMP could play an important role in surface CH 4 diffusion, and its relative importance is higher in less productive and/or deeper lakes. The model performance is improved for capturing CH 4 outgassing events in non‐floodplain lakes and the seasonal variability of CH 4 ebullition in floodplain lakes by representing the effect of water level on ebullition. The model can be integrated into ESMs to constrain global lake CH 4 emissions and climate‐CH 4 feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Convective Microphysics Scheme and Its Impacts on Mean Climate in E3SM

Abstract To improve the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds and their interaction with aerosol and stratiform clouds, a two‐moment convective microphysics parameterization (CMP) scheme developed by Song and Zhang (2011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014833 ) is upgraded and implemented in E3SM. The new developments include: (a) implementing a parameterization for graupel to enhance the representation of ice‐phase microphysical processes; (b) representing the impact of spatial inhomogeneity of cloud droplets in cumulus ensembles on autoconversion and accretion processes to improve the representation of warm‐rain microphysical processes; (c) implementing a comprehensive Bergeron process parameterization to better represent mixed‐phase microphysical processes; and (d) representing the interactions between ice‐phase microphysics and cloud thermodynamics. Simulations show that the cloud microphysical properties simulated by the CMP are generally in good agreement with observations. It reasonably simulates the changes in droplets effective radius related to precipitation formation in convective clouds, as identified from satellite observations. It also successfully simulates the contrast in these processes between maritime and continental clouds, demonstrating its capability to simulate the impact of aerosols on convection. Analyses of the impact of CMP on climate mean state simulation demonstrate that the CMP slightly improves the simulations of precipitation, cloud macrophysical properties, longwave cloud radiative forcing, zonal wind, and temperature. However, a degradation in shortwave cloud radiative forcing occurs.

GCM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global River Topology (GRIT): A Bifurcating River Hydrography

Existing global river networks underpin a wide range of hydrological applications but do not represent channels with divergent river flows (bifurcations, multi‐threaded channels, canals), as these features defy the convergent flow assumption that elevation‐derived networks (e.g., HydroSHEDS, MERIT Hydro) are based on. Yet, bifurcations are important features of the global river drainage system, especially on large floodplains and river deltas, and are also often found in densely populated regions. Here we developed the first raster and vector‐based Global RIver Topology that not only represents the tributaries of the global drainage network but also the distributaries, including multi‐threaded rivers, canals and deltas. We achieve this by merging a 30 m Landsat‐based river mask with elevation‐generated streams to ensure a homogeneous drainage density outside of the river mask for rivers narrower than approximately 30 m. Crucially, we employ the new 30 m digital terrain model, FABDEM, based on TanDEM‐X, which shows greater accuracy over the traditionally used SRTM derivatives. After vectorization and pruning, directionality is assigned by a series of elevation, flow angle and continuity approaches. The new global network and its attributes are validated using gauging stations, comparison with existing networks, and randomized manual checks. The new network represents 19.6 million km of streams and rivers with drainage areas greater than 50 km 2 and includes 67,495 bifurcations. With the advent of hyper‐resolution modeling and artificial intelligence, GRIT is expected to greatly improve the accuracy of many river‐based applications such as flood forecasting, water availability and quality simulations, or riverine habitat mapping.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗

DOE OSTI2015

Unravelling core microbial metabolisms in the hypersaline microbial mats of Shark Bay using high-throughput metagenomics

Modern microbial mats are potential analogues of some of Earth’s earliest ecosystems. Excellent examples can be found in Shark Bay, Australia, with mats of various morphologies. To further our understanding of the functional genetic potential of these complex microbial ecosystems, we conducted for the first time shotgun metagenomic analyses. We assembled metagenomic nextgeneration sequencing data to classify the taxonomic and metabolic potential across diverse morphologies of marine mats in Shark Bay. The microbial community across taxonomic classifications using protein-coding and small subunit rRNA genes directly extracted from the metagenomes suggests that three phyla Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria and Bacteriodetes dominate all marine mats. However, the microbial community structure between Shark Bay and Highbourne Cay (Bahamas) marine systems appears to be distinct from each other. The metabolic potential (based on SEED subsystem classifications) of the Shark Bay and Highbourne Cay microbial communities were also distinct. Shark Bay metagenomes have a metabolic pathway profile consisting of both heterotrophic and photosynthetic pathways, whereas Highbourne Cay appears to be dominated almost exclusively by photosynthetic pathways. Alternative non-rubisco-based carbon metabolism including reductive TCA cycle and 3-hydroxypropionate/4-hydroxybutyrate pathways is highly represented in Shark Bay metagenomes while not represented in Highbourne Cay microbial mats or any other mat forming ecosystems investigated to date. Potentially novel aspects of nitrogen cycling were also observed, as well as putative heavy metal cycling (arsenic, mercury, copper and cadmium). Finally, archaea are highly represented in Shark Bay and may have critical roles in overall ecosystem function in these modern microbial mats.

Ruvindy, Rendy↗

DOE OSTI2016

Regulation of infection efficiency in a globally abundant marine Bacteriodetes virus

Microbes impact human health and disease, industrial processes and natural ecosystems, but do so under the influence of viruses. Problematically, knowledge of viral infection efficiencies and outcomes (e.g. lysis, lysogeny) derives from few model systems that over-represent efficient, lytic infections and under-represent virus-host natural diversity. Here we sought to understand how infection efficiency is regulated in an environmental Bacteroidetes virus that represents a globally abundant viral group and has drastically different infection efficiencies when infecting two nearly identical bacterial strains. To this end, we quantified bacterial virus (phage) and host DNA, transcripts and phage particles throughout the infection of both bacterial hosts. While the phage transcriptome was similar during both infections, host transcriptional differences appeared to have altered infection efficiency. Specifically, host transcriptomes suggested that the phage failed to repress early host expression in the inefficient nfection, thereby allowing the host to respond against infection by delaying phage DNA replication and protein translation. Further measurements showed that phage DNA and particle production were delayed (by >30 minutes) and reduced (by >50%) in the inefficient versus efficient infection as the host over-expressed DNA degradation genes and under-expressed translation genes, respectively. Together these results suggest that multiple levels of regulation can impact infection efficiencies as failure to repress host transcription allowed the host to defend against both phage DNA and protein production. Given that this phage type is ubiquitous and abundant in the global oceans and that variably efficient viral infections are likely common in any ecosystem with varying phage-host abundances and physiological states, these data provide a critically needed foundation for understanding and modeling viral infection efficiency in nature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Unusual biology across a group comprising more than 15% of domain Bacteria

All rights reserved. A prominent feature of the bacterial domain is a radiation of major lineages that are defined as candidate phyla because they lack isolated representatives. Bacteria from these phyla occur in diverse environments and are thought to mediate carbon and hydrogen cycles. Genomic analyses of a few representatives suggested that metabolic limitations have prevented their cultivation. Here we reconstructed 8 complete and 789 draft genomes from bacteria representing >35 phyla and documented features that consistently distinguish these organisms from other bacteria. We infer that this group, which may comprise >15% of the bacterial domain, has shared evolutionary history, and describe it as the candidate phyla radiation (CPR). All CPR genomes are small and most lack numerous biosynthetic pathways. Owing to divergent 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene sequences, 50-100% of organisms sampled from specific phyla would evade detection in typical cultivation-independent surveys. CPR organisms often have self-splicing introns and proteins encoded within their rRNA genes, a feature rarely reported in bacteria. Furthermore, they have unusual ribosome compositions. All are missing a ribosomal protein often absent in symbionts, and specific lineages are missing ribosomal proteins and biogenesis factors considered universal in bacteria. This implies different ribosome structures and biogenesis mechanisms, and underlines unusual biology across a large part of the bacterial domain.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗