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DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effective traplike activated dynamics in a continuous landscape

In this work, we use a simple model to extend network models for activated dynamics to a continuous landscape with a well-defined notion of distance and a direct connection to many-body systems. The model consists of a tracer in a high-dimensional funnel landscape with no disorder. We find a nonequilibrium low-temperature phase with aging dynamics that is effectively equivalent to that of models with built-in disorder, such as the trap model, step model and random energy model. Finally, we compare entropy with energy-driven activation, and we remark that the former is more robust to the choice of the dynamics since it does not depend on whether one uses local or global updates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long-range and local crystal structures of the S r 1 - x C a x Ru O 3 perovskites

Here, the crystal structures of the Sr 1–x Ca x RuO 3 (0 ≤ x ≤ 1) perovskites are investigated using both long-range and local structural probes. High-resolution synchrotron powder x-ray-diffraction characterization at ambient temperature shows that the materials have orthorhombic long-range crystal structures to high precision, and we support previous work showing that Ca 2+ substitution for Sr 2+ primarily changes the tilting of rigid corner-sharing RuO 6 octahedra at their shared oxygen vertices. X-ray pair-distribution function analysis for SrRuO 3 , CaRuO 3 , and one intermediate composition show them to display monoclinic symmetry at the local level; when averaged over different domain orientations this yields orthorhombic symmetry in the long range, and no long-range or local phase transitions are observed between 80 and 300 K for materials with intermediate compositions. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy shows that the Sr/Ca distribution is random at the nanoscale. Lastly, we plot magnetic characteristics such as the ferromagnetic T c , Curie-Weiss theta, effective moment, and ambient temperature susceptibility vs the octahedral tilt and unit-cell volume.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Behavior of Natural Seep Vents: Analysis of Field and Laboratory Observations and Modeling (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, we have analyzed data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a high pressure water tunnel (HPWT) and data from two research cruises to natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico to adapt and validate a numerical model to predict the dynamics of natural seeps in the deep oceans. The HPWT data include video observations of the shrinkage rate of individual methane and natural gas bubbles under simulated deep-water conditions. Field data were collected during two cruises by the Gulf Integrated Spill Research (GISR) Consortium led by Texas A&M University and funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI). These data included in situ observations from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) of gas bubbles at two natural seep sites in the Gulf and acoustic observations of the natural seep bubble flares in the ocean water column. The acoustic data were from multibeam echosounders, one mounted in a forward-looking orientation on the ROV and another mounted down-looking in the haul of the ship. All of these laboratory and field data were focused on the dynamics of natural gas bubbles at temperatures and pressures favorable for clathrate hydrate formation between the gas and water. Our analyses of this data focused on understanding the mechanisms responsible for gas bubble dissolution within the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) of the oceans. Ice-like hydrate shells may form on the bubble-water interface under these conditions, and it was unknown how this might affect the mass transfer of gas into the ocean. We were able to extract bubble shrinkage rates from the HPWT datasets. Using this data we determined that mass transfer coefficients with and without a hydrate shell match empirical values for bubbles in contaminated systems (so-called dirty bubbles contaminated by naturally occurring surfactants). We also showed that free gas, and not gas hydrate, is the dominant dissolving phase when the hydrate sub-cooling is below 11 degree Celsius (temperature difference between hydrate the hydrate formation temperature and ambient temperator) or the pressure is reducing as bubbles rise through the ocean water column. Using this mass transfer model, our numerical model of bubble dissolution matched the over 200 HPWT experiments with an average error of 10% for predicting the bubble size at the end of an experiment. From field data in the literature, we also observed that gas bubbles dissolve faster when they are initially released, following mass transfer coefficients for so-called clean-bubbles (those not yet contaminated by surfactants). Shortly after release within the HSZ, a hydrate shell forms on the bubble-water interface, and the mass transfer reduces to rates matching those of dirty bubbles. We correlated this transition time from clean to dirty bubble behavior with the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate sub-cooling. With this model for hydrate formation time and using the mass transfer coefficients deduced from the HPWT data, we validated our numerical model for predicting the rise heights of natural seep flares in the oceans. Flare heights are commonly observed in haul-mounted acoustic multibeam data. The numerical model predicts bubbles to rise high in the ocean water column owing to the slower mass transfer rates for dirty bubbles that accompany the majority of their rise time. We found that the numerical model predictions matched the observed flare heights within 5% to 10% accuracy when we compared the rise heights of the largest bubbles released from the seafloor with the bubbles acoustically visible in the multibeam data. Bubbles become acoustically transparent as they shrink to sizes of order 1 mm in diameter for the multibeam frequencies used in the field. The forward-looking multibeam on the ROV also provided data on the lateral spreading of bubbles in natural seep flares. Our analysis of this data showed that spreading follows a diffusion process, with the effective diffusivity correlating with the wobbling length scale of these ellipsoidal bubbles. When we apply this diffusivity in a random displacement model of bubble spreading, our numerical simulations match closely the lateral spread observed by the M3 in the ocean water column. Finally, we compared the seep model predictions for the acoustic properties of these natural seep plumes with that observed by the acoustic instruments in the field. The M3 and EM 302 observations were converted to relative values of target strength using a calibration we obtained in the laboratory for the M3 and using an algorithm from the manufacturer for the EM 302. Comparing the numerical seep model to these data, we obtain good agreement over the whole height of rise of these bubble flares. This further validates the numerical model. Overall, our validated seep model captures the key dynamics of gas bubbles released from natural seeps in the oceans and helps to predict the fate of methane in the water column.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Fermilab Holometer: A program to measure Planck scale indeterminacy

We propose an experiment at Fermilab to study a conjectured effect called "holographic noise" that may arise from new Planck scale physics: the measured positions of bodies may wander randomly from ideal geodesics of classical relativity, in measurement-dependent directions, by about a Planck length per Planck time. The experiment will search for this holographic jitter in the relation of mass-energy and space-time by looking for correlated phase noise between two neighboring 40 meter interferometers. The goal of the experiment is to provide convincing evidence for or against the hypothesis that relative transverse positions of bodies display this particular new kind of quantum noise, whose power spectrum is independent of frequency and has a spectral density determined only by the Planck time. A positive result of the experiment would be a major step forward in understanding the emergence of space time and mass-energy from a unified theory of spacetime and quantum mechanics. A negative result will impact the macroscopic interpretation of unified theories.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microstructural Investigation of Precipitation Treated A709 Test Samples

This report presents the microstructural characterization using scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) of two creep-tested ESR1150-PT specimens, one short-term and one long-term. The results show that during creep testing, the microstructure of the A709 ESR1150-PT material continues to evolve as expected due to the synergistic effect of strain, temperature and time. Key features include dislocation forest and cell structures, precipitates on grain boundaries, precipitates randomly within grains, and precipitates associated with dislocations. In addition, the STEM study of one ESR1100-SA specimen that has been tested to rupture at a relatively low temperature (550°C) for a relatively long term (16226 h) is also presented. The results show that there is a high density of very fine nano precipitates form on dislocations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Social Media, Syndromic Surveillance, and Microbiologic Acute Respiratory Infection Data: Observational Study

Internet data can be used to improve infectious disease models. However, the representativeness and individual-level validity of internet-derived measures are largely unexplored as this requires ground truth data for study. This study sought to identify relationships between Web-based behaviors and/or conversation topics and health status using a ground truth, survey-based dataset. This study leveraged a unique dataset of self-reported surveys, microbiological laboratory tests, and social media data from the same individuals toward understanding the validity of individual-level constructs pertaining to influenza-like illness in social media data. Logistic regression models were used to identify illness in Twitter posts using user posting behaviors and topic model features extracted from users’ tweets. Of 396 original study participants, only 81 met the inclusion criteria for this study. Of these participants’ tweets, we identified only two instances that were related to health and occurred within 2 weeks (before or after) of a survey indicating symptoms. It was not possible to predict when participants reported symptoms using features derived from topic models (area under the curve [AUC]=0.51; P=.38), though it was possible using behavior features, albeit with a very small effect size (AUC=0.53; P≤.001). Individual symptoms were also generally not predictable either. The study sample and a random sample from Twitter are predictably different on held-out data (AUC=0.67; P≤.001), meaning that the content posted by people who participated in this study was predictably different from that posted by random Twitter users. Individuals in the random sample and the GoViral sample used Twitter with similar frequencies (similar @ mentions, number of tweets, and number of retweets; AUC=0.50; P=.19). To our knowledge, this is the first instance of an attempt to use a ground truth dataset to validate infectious disease observations in social media data. The lack of signal, the lack of predictability among behaviors or topics, and the demonstrated volunteer bias in the study population are important findings for the large and growing body of disease surveillance using internet-sourced data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hot Stars with Kepler Planets Have High Obliquities

It has been known for a decade that hot stars with hot Jupiters tend to have high obliquities. Less is known about the degree of spin–orbit alignment for hot stars with other kinds of planets. Here, we reassess the obliquities of hot Kepler stars with transiting planets smaller than Neptune, based on spectroscopic measurements of their projected rotation velocities (vsin i). The basis of the method is that a lower obliquity—all other things being equal—causes sin i to be closer to unity and increases the value of vsin i. We sought evidence for this effect using a sample of 150 Kepler stars with effective temperatures between 5950 and 6550 K and a control sample of 101 stars with matching spectroscopic properties and random orientations. The planet hosts have systematically higher values of vsin i than the control stars, but not by enough to be compatible with perfect spin–orbit alignment. The mean value of sin i is 0.856 ± 0.036, which is 4σ away from unity (perfect alignment), and 2σ away from π/4 (random orientations). There is also evidence that the hottest stars have a broader obliquity distribution: when modeled separately, the stars cooler than 6250 K have 〈sin i〉=0.928±0.042 while the hotter stars are consistent with random orientations. This is similar to the pattern previously noted for stars with hot Jupiters. Based on these results, obliquity excitation for early-G and late-F stars appears to be a general outcome of star and planet formation, rather than being exclusively linked to hot Jupiter formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

On the magnon interaction in haematite. I - Magnon energy of optical mode.

The effect of magnon interaction on the magnon energies of haematite was studied by the use of a recently developed random phase approximation. In this study, the spin Hamiltonian and the magnon energy were written in a power series of (1/S), where S denotes the magnitude of spin. It is known that the expression of magnon energy is rigorous up to the second term of this series. It is found that the optic mode energy is small if the free optic mode energy is small, which is contrary to Herbert's (1969) conclusion. This direct proportionality between the optic mode energy and the free optic mode energy was not confirmed in the higher order terms of 1/S.

Nagai, O.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Analytical techniques and instrumentation, a compilation

Procedures for conducting materials tests and structural analyses of aerospace components are presented as a part of the NASA technology utilization program. Some of the subjects discussed are as follows: (1) failures in cryogenic tank insulation, (2) friction characteristics of graphite and graphite-metal combinations, (3) evaluation of polymeric products in thermal-vacuum environment, (4) erosion of metals by multiple impacts with water, (5) mass loading effects on vibrated ring and shell structures, (6) nonlinear damping in structures, and (7) method for estimating reliability of randomly excited structures.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1974

Advance prototype silver ion water bactericide system

An advance prototype unit was designed and fabricated to treat anticipated fuel cell water. The unit is a single canister that contains a membrane-type prefilter and a silver bromide contacting bed. A seven day baseline simulated mission test was performed; the performance was satisfactory and the effluent water was within all specifications for potability. After random vibrations another seven day simulated mission test was performed, and results indicate that simulated launch vibrations have no effects on the design and performance of the advanced prototype. Bench tests and accelerated breadboard tests were conducted to define the characteristics of an upgraded model of the advance prototype unit which would have 30 days of operating capability. A preliminary design of a silver ion generator for the shuttle orbiter was also prepared.

Jasionowski, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A two-fluid solar wind model with Alfven waves - Parameter study and application to observations

The effects of Alfven waves from the inner corona on the solar wind density profile, flow velocity and on the random motion of protons are studied. Different base densities, temperatures, and wave velocity amplitudes, as well as different flow geometries, are considered. The model calculations are compared to simultaneous observations of the electron density profile and the resonantly scattered Lyman alpha line. Present observations, out to 4 solar radii, can be used to place limits on the coronal base density and temperature, and put an upper limit on the wave amplitude. It is pointed out that future observations of the electron density and the Lyman alpha line, out to larger heliocentric distances, and of lines from heavier elements, should be used to place more stringent constraints on the amplitudes of MHD waves in the corona.

Esser, R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

The Shane-Wirtanen counts - Plate correction factors and correlation functions

It has recently been argued that the break in the galaxy correlation function observed in the Lick counts of Shane and Wirtanen may be an artifact of plate variations in limiting magnitude. This has stimulated us to generalize our analysis of the effect of errors in the plate depths to include a possible systematic term, and to develop tests for the random and systematic errors. The tests show that neither can have appreciably affected the distinctive feature found in the galaxy two-point correlation function for the Lick sample.

Groth, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Wake shield

Progress on the modeling of the flow field around a wake shield using a recently obtained code based on the Monte Carlo method is discussed. The direct simulation Monte Carlo method is a method for solving the Boltzman Equation using an approximation to the collision integral term. The collision integrand is evaluated for randomly selected values of its arguments and the summation will approach the integral for large enough samples. The collision effects may be modeled for either hard sphere or various power law potentials. The convective side of the Boltzman equation is approximated over a time step using a simple trajectory calculation of molecules as they travel through the domain of interest.

Bannister, Tommy↗

NASA NTRS1988

ENVIRONET database on vibroacoustics

This paper discusses the current ENVIRONET computer based information management system on vibroacoustic (random vibration and acoustic) environments for Space Transportation System payloads. The application of the data base to support cost effective payload development programs is described. Included also is a discussion of the current status of the data base and future plans for expanding and improving the data base to include additional payload carriers, Space Station, and expendable launch vehicle payloads.

On, Frank J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Pointing control for LDR

One important aspect of the LDR control problem is the possible excitations of structural modes due to random disturbances, mirror chopping, and slewing maneuvers. An analysis was performed to yield a first order estimate of the effects of such dynamic excitations. The analysis involved a study of slewing jitters, chopping jitters, disturbance responses, and pointing errors, making use of a simplified planar LDR model which describes the LDR dynamics on a plane perpendicular to the primary reflector. Briefly, the results indicate that the command slewing profile plays an important role in minimizing the resultant jitter, even to a level acceptable without any control action. An optimal profile should therefore be studied.

Yam, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Fine structure of transient waves in a random medium: The correlation and spectral density functions

This is essentially a progress report on a theoretical investigation of the propagation of transient waves in a random medium. The emphasis in this study is on applications to sonic-boom propagation, particularly as regards the effect of atmospheric turbulence on the sonic-boom waveform. The analysis is general, however, and is applicable to other types of waves besides sonic-boom waves. The phenomenon of primary concern in this investigation is the fine structure of the wave. A figure is used to illustrate what is meant by finestructure.

Wenzel, Alan R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Systematic Error Correction Method for TOVS Radiances

Treatment of systematic errors is crucial for the successful use of satellite data in a data assimilation system. Systematic errors in TOVS radiance measurements and radiative transfer calculations can be as large or larger than random instrument errors. The usual assumption in data assimilation is that observational errors are unbiased. If biases are not effectively removed prior to assimilation, the impact of satellite data will be lessened and can even be detrimental. Treatment of systematic errors is important for short-term forecast skill as well as the creation of climate data sets. A systematic error correction algorithm has been developed as part of a 1D radiance assimilation. This scheme corrects for spectroscopic errors, errors in the instrument response function, and other biases in the forward radiance calculation for TOVS. Such algorithms are often referred to as tuning of the radiances. The scheme is able to account for the complex, air-mass dependent biases that are seen in the differences between TOVS radiance observations and forward model calculations. We will show results of systematic error correction applied to the NOAA 15 Advanced TOVS as well as its predecessors. We will also discuss the ramifications of inter-instrument bias with a focus on stratospheric measurements.

Joiner, Joanna↗