Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Policy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,225 records · Page 68
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluating the environmental sustainability of biomass-based energy strategy: Using an impact matrix framework

A roadmap for a more sustainable energy strategy is complex, as its development interacts critically with the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. This paper applied an impact matrix method to evaluate the environmental sustainability and to identify the desirable policy objectives of biomass-based energy strategy for the case of Alberta. A matrix with the sustainability domains on one axis and areas of environmental impact on the other was presented to evaluate the nexus effect of policy objectives and bioenergy production. As per to our analysis, economic diversification, technological innovation, and resource conservation came up as the desirable policy objectives of sustainable development for Alberta because they demonstrated environmental benefits in all environmental impact categories, namely climate change, human health, and ecosystem. On the other hand, human health and ecosystem impacts were identified as trade-offs when the policy objectives for sustainability were energy security, job creation, and climate change. Thus, bioenergy can mitigate climate change but may impact human health and ecosystem which then in turn can become issues of concern. Energy strategies may result in shifting of risks from one environmental impact category to another, and from one sustainable domain to another if the technical and policy-related issues are not identified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Achieving CO 2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increase in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. As a result, an assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Exploring Citizen Infrastructure and Environmental Priorities in Mumbai, India

Many cities worldwide seek to understand local policy priorities among their general populations. This study explores how differences in local conditions and among citizens within and across Mumbai, India shape local infrastructure (e.g. energy, water, transport) and environmental (e.g. managing pollution, climate-related extreme weather events) policy priorities for change that may or may not be aligned with local government action or global environmental sustainability concerns such as low-carbon development. In this rapidly urbanizing city, multiple issues compete for prominence, ranging from improved management of pollution and extreme weather to energy and other infrastructure services. To inform a broader perspective of policy priorities for urban development and risk mitigation, a survey was conducted among over 1200 citizens. The survey explored the state of local conditions, the challenges citizens face, and the ways in which differences in local conditions (socio-institutional, infrastructure, and health-related) demonstrate inequities and influence how citizens perceive risks and rank priorities for the future design and implementation of local planning, policy, and community-based efforts. With growing discussion and tensions surrounding the new urban sustainable development goal, announced by the UN in late September 2015, and a new global urban agenda document to be agreed upon at 'Habitat III', issues on whether sustainable urbanization priorities should be set at the international, national or local level remain controversial. As such, this study aims to first understand determinants of and variations in local priorities across one city, with implications discussed for local-to-global urban sustainability. Findings from survey results indicate the determinants and variation in conditions such as age, assets, levels of participation in residential action groups, the health outcome of chronic asthma, and the infrastructure service of piped water provision to homes are significant in shaping the top infrastructure and environmental policy priorities that include water supply and sanitation, air pollution, waste, and extreme heat.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A conceptual framework for residential energy security in the context of clean energy transitions

Energy security is a crucial aspect of human well-being. As climate change impacts become more evident, countries are constructing equitable, resilient, and sustainable clean energy transition policies to reduce emissions while ensuring energy security. Climate policies globally highlight the importance of national energy security. Furthermore, adequate and affordable access to household energy is also critical to the continued prioritization of climate mitigation. However, past energy security discussions within the broader climate research and policymaking community primarily focused on national-level energy supply as a critical metric of energy security. Less research has explored the potential implications of energy transitions for residential energy security, often focusing on a single dimension of residential energy security. Thus, we conduct a review of journal articles and governmental plans to develop a conceptual framework of residential energy security and facilitate communication among researchers and policymakers. The framework is designed around four foundational pillars, five metrics measuring residential energy security, and seven drivers influencing the metrics. Additionally, we provide policy examples to show how this framework can be applied to inform decision-making. Thus, this paper makes important contributions to the literature by (a) creating a framework to better understand the concept of energy security at the household level for future research and policy-relevant communications, (b) identifying gaps in the current literature, and (c) highlighting instances where aspects of residential energy security are discussed in policies and governmental plans, which help serve as guiding examples for future applications of our framework in the policymaking processes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2012

Strategies for Local Low-Carbon Development

Cities around the world are implementing policies and programs with the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as save energy, reduce costs, and protect the local, regional, and global environment. In China, low-carbon development is a key element of the 12th Five Year Plan. Pilot low-carbon development zones have been initiated in five provinces and eight cities and many other locations around China also want to pursue a low-carbon development pathway. This booklet provides information for government officials, policy makers, program designers and implementers, provincial and city planners, and others who want an overview of the key options available for low-carbon development at local level. These Strategies for Local Low-Carbon Development draw from successful experiences from around the world. Information is provided for low-carbon actions that can be taken in the sectors of (1) Industry, (2) Buildings and Appliances, (3) Electric Power, (4) Consumption and Waste Management, (5) Transportation and Urban Form, and (6) Agriculture and Forestry. A description of each policy is provided along with information on the stakeholders involved in implementation, the conditions for successful implementation, the expected energy and carbon savings, and the policy cost-effectiveness. Case studies show how each policy has been implemented somewhere around the world. While there are many low-carbon options available for local implementation, this booklet aims to provide guidance on those that have been most successful, that have the largest impact, and that are cost-effective in order to support low-carbon development efforts in Chinese cities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Energy Efficiency Appliance Standards: Where do we stand, how far can we go and how do we get there? An analysis across several economies

This paper analyses several potential savings scenarios for minimum energy performance standard (MEPS) and comparable programs for governments participating i n the Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative, of the Clean Energy Ministerial, which represent over 60% of primary energy consumption in the world. We compare projected energy savings from the main end uses in the residential sector using three energy efficiency scenarios: (1) recent achievements, (2) cost-effective saving potential, and (3) energy efficiency technical potential. The recent achievement scenario (1) evaluates the future impact of MEPS enacted or under development between 2010 and 2012. The cost-effective potential scenario (2) identifies the maximum potential for energy efficiency that results in net benefits to the consumer. The best available technology scenario (3) re presents the full potential of energy efficiency considering best available technologies as candidates for MEPS and incentive programs. We use the Bottom Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS), developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in collaboration with the Collaborative Labelling and Appliances Standards Program (CLASP), to provide a consistent methodology to com pare the different scenarios. This paper focuses on the main end uses in the residential sector. The comparison of the three scenarios for each economy provides possible opportunities for scaling up current policies or implementing additional policies. This comparison across economies reveals country best practices as well as end uses that present the greatest additional potential savings. The paper describes areas where methodologies and additional policy instruments can increase penetration of energy efficient technologies. First , we summarize the barriers and provide remedial policy tools/best practices, such as techno-economic analysis, in response to each barriers that prevent economies from capturing the full cost-effective potentials of MEPS (Scenario 1 to 2). Then, we consider the possible complementary policy options, such as incentive pro grams, to reach the full technical potential of energy efficiency in the residential sector (Scenario 2 to 3).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Final Report to the National Energy Technology Laboratory on FY14- FY15 Cooperative Research with the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions

The Power System Engineering Research Center (PSERC) engages in technological, market, and policy research for an efficient, secure, resilient, adaptable, and economic U.S. electric power system. PSERC, as a founding partner of the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS), conducted a multi-year program of research for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) to develop new methods, tools, and technologies to protect and enhance the reliability and efficiency of the U.S. electric power system as competitive electricity market structures evolve, and as the grid moves toward wide-scale use of decentralized generation (such as renewable energy sources) and demand-response programs. Phase I of OE’s funding for PSERC, under cooperative agreement DE-FC26-09NT43321, started in fiscal year (FY) 2009 and ended in FY2013. It was administered by DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) through a cooperative agreement with Arizona State University (ASU). ASU provided sub-awards to the participating PSERC universities. This document is PSERC’s final report to NETL on the activities for OE, conducted through CERTS, from September 2015 through September 2017 utilizing FY 2014 to FY 2015 funding under cooperative agreement DE-OE0000670. PSERC is a thirteen-university consortium with over 30 industry members. Since 1996, PSERC has been engaged in research and education efforts with the mission of “empowering minds to engineer the future electric energy system.” Its work is focused on achieving: • An efficient, secure, resilient, adaptable, and economic electric power infrastructure serving society • A new generation of educated technical professionals in electric power • Knowledgeable decision-makers on critical energy policy issues • Sustained, quality university programs in electric power engineering. PSERC core research is funded by industry, with a budget supporting approximately 30 principal investigators and some 70 graduate students and other researchers. Its researchers are multi-disciplinary, conducting research in three principal areas: power systems, power markets and policy, and transmission and distribution technologies. The research is collaborative; each project involves researchers typically at two universities working with industry advisors who have expressed interest in the project. Examples of topics for recent PSERC research projects include grid integration of renewables and energy storage, new tools for taking advantage of increased penetration of real-time system measurements, advanced system protection methods to maintain grid reliability, and risk and reliability assessment of increasingly complex cyber-enabled power systems. A PSERC’s objective is to proactively address the technical and policy challenges of U.S. electric power systems. To achieve this objective, PSERC works with CERTS to conduct technical research on advanced applications and investigate the design of fair and transparent electricity markets; these research topics align with CERTS research areas 1 and 2: Real-time Grid Reliability Management (Area 1), and Reliability and Markets (Area 2). The CERTS research areas overlap with the PSERC research stems: Power Systems, Power Markets, and Transmission and Distribution Technologies, as described on the PSERC website (see http://www.pserc.org/research/research_program.aspx). The performers were with Arizona State University (ASU), Cornell University (CU), University of California at Berkeley (UCB), and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). PSERC research activities in the area of reliability and markets focused on electric market and power policy analyses. The resulting studies suggest ways to frame best practices using organized markets for managing U.S. grid assets reliably and to identify highest priority areas for improvement. PSERC research activities in the area of advanced applications focused on mid- to long-term software research and development, with anticipated outcomes that move innovative ideas toward real-world application. Under the CERTS research area of Real-time Grid Reliability Management, PSERC has been focused on Advanced Applications Research and Development (AARD), a subgroup of activities that works to develop advanced applications and tools to more effectively operate the electricity delivery system, by enabling advanced analysis, visualization, monitoring and alarming, and decision support capabilities for grid operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2023 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2022 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 states have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 17 states have a 100% CES or RPS target. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 30% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2022. Within some regions, particularly the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, RPS policies play a more central role in motivating RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: RPS and CES policies will require roughly 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of additional clean electricity supply by 2030 and 800 TWh by 2050, requiring total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 28% of electricity sales by 2050 (compared to 17% today). This amounts to roughly one-quarter of EIA’s projected RE growth through 2050. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force. -Renewable energy certificate (REC) pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$ /MWh over the past year, just below alternative compliance payment (ACP) rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$30$ /MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs (or SRECs) remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($\$200-450$ /MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 3.5% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (8-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

County Land-Use Regulations for Solar Energy Development in Colorado

We present a survey of county-level policies on ground-mounted solar development across Colorado, including both solar-specific ordinances as well as general land-use code that might be applicable in counties without solar-specific policies. This report provides an accessible reference for stakeholders interested in identifying counties with particular regulations or in analyzing the diversity of regulations across Colorado. We defined a set of search criteria to find information on solar definitions and classifications, permitting processes, and use-specific requirements in each of Colorado's 64 counties. With those criteria, we reviewed relevant ordinances, land-use code, and comprehensive and master plans. If any uncertainties were identified, we contacted county officials for clarification. The findings are categorized and mapped to illustrate the distribution of key policies adopted across Colorado's counties on the following topics: solar definitions, solar siting policy documentation, categorization of PV systems for permitting, 1041 permitting, solar on agricultural land, panel height restrictions, fencing requirements, vegetation management, visual impacts, decommissioning plans, and financial assurance for decommissioning. Additionally, we identify and discuss policies that might impact the deployment of agrivoltaics, a dual land use combining both agriculture and solar on the same land, which might not fit neatly in existing zoning definitions and solar-specific regulations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development of an integrated model for energy systems planning and carbon dioxide mitigation under uncertainty – Tradeoffs between two-level decision makers

Highlights: • A bi-level model is developed for energy systems planning and carbon dioxide mitigation. • Tradeoffs between two-level decision-makers’ demands are quantified under uncertainty. • The energy and environmental impact of CO{sub 2} mitigation policy is analyzed for Beijing. • Results provide a range of decision alternatives between system optimality and reliability. A bi-level fuzzy programming (BFLP) method was developed for energy systems planning (ESP) and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) mitigation under uncertainty. BFLP could handle fuzzy information and leader-follower problem in decision-making processes. It could also address the tradeoffs among different decision makers in two decision-making levels through prioritizing the most important goal. Then, a BFLP-ESP model was formulated for planning energy system of Beijing, in which the upper-level objective is to minimize CO{sub 2} emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. Results provided a range of decision alternatives that corresponded to a tradeoff between system optimality and reliability under uncertainty. Compared to the single-level model with a target to minimize system cost, the amounts of pollutant/CO{sub 2} emissions from BFLP-ESP were reduced since the study system would prefer more clean energies (i.e. natural gas, LPG and electricity) to replace coal fuel. Decision alternatives from BFLP were more beneficial for supporting Beijing to adjust its energy mix and enact its emission-abatement policy. Results also revealed that the low-carbon policy for power plants (e.g., shutting down all coal-fired power plants) could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing, which would increase the risk of energy shortage. The findings could help decision makers analyze the interactions between different stakeholders in ESP and provide useful information for policy design under uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California

Residential distributed photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the United States has experienced robust growth, and policy changes impacting the value of solar are likely to occur at the federal and state levels. To establish a credible baseline and evaluate impacts of potential new policies, this analysis employs multiple methods to forecast residential PV deployment in California, including a time-series forecasting model, a threshold heterogeneity diffusion model, a Bass diffusion model, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's dSolar model. As a baseline, the residential PV market in California is modeled to peak in the early 2020s, with a peak annual installation of 1.5-2 GW across models. We then use the baseline results from the dSolar model and the threshold model to gauge the impact of the recent federal investment tax credit (ITC) extension, the newly approved California net energy metering (NEM) policy, and a hypothetical value-of-solar (VOS) compensation scheme. We find that the recent ITC extension may increase annual PV installations by 12%-18% (roughly 500 MW, MW) for the California residential sector in 2019-2020. The new NEM policy only has a negligible effect in California due to the relatively small new charges (< 100 MW in 2019-2020). Moreover, impacts of the VOS compensation scheme (0.12 cents per kilowatt-hour) are larger, reducing annual PV adoption by 32% (or 900-1300 MW) in 2019-2020.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Incentives for Methane Mitigation and Energy-Efficiency Improvements in Case of Ukraine’s Natural Gas Transmission System

Reducing methane losses is a concern for climate change policy and energy policy. The energy sector is the major source of methane emissions into the atmosphere. Reducing methane emissions and avoiding combustion can be very cost-effective, but various barriers prevent such energy-efficiency measures from taking place. To date, few examples of industry-wide improvements exist. One example of substantial investments into upgrading natural gas transmission system comes from Ukraine. The Ukrainian transmission company, Ukrtransgaz, reduced its own system’s natural gas consumption by 68 percent in 2011 compared to the level in 2005. Evaluating reductions in methane emissions is challenging because of lack of accurate data and gaps in accounting methodologies. At the same time, Ukraine’s transmission system has undergone improvements that, at the very least, have contained methane emissions, if not substantially reduced them. In this paper, we describe recent developments in Ukraine’s natural gas transmission system and analyze the incentives that forced the sector to pay close attention to its methane losses. Ukraine is one of most energy-intensive countries, among the largest natural gas consumers in the world, and a significant emitter of methane. The country is also dependent on imports of natural gas. A combination of steep increases in the price of imported natural gas, and comprehensive domestic environmental and energy policies, regional integration policy, and international environmental agreements has created conditions for successful methane emission and combustion reductions. Learning about such case studies can help us design better policies elsewhere.

Methane Mitigation, Energy Efficiency, Ukraine, Na↗
DOE OSTI2018

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework’s abstraction of “challenges to mitigation” and “challenges to adaptation” to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support “bottom-up” scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economics of land‐based carbon mitigation

Agricultural land holds tremendous potential to contribute to net zero greenhouse gas emission goals by providing low carbon renewable energy to displace fossil fuels and by serving as a sink for sequestering carbon in the soil with climate‐smart practices. This potential is, however, far from being realized. This paper examines the economic incentives and barriers to implementing land‐based carbon mitigation strategies and discusses the specific features of land‐based carbon mitigation practices on carbon emissions that need to be considered in designing policy incentives to induce adoption. Although a carbon price‐based policy is socially efficient, the more commonly observed policies to promote land‐based carbon mitigation include practice‐based conservation programs, technology mandates, and sector‐specific standards. The paper discusses the rationale for these alternative policy approaches and concludes with a discussion of emerging opportunities for designing policy and market‐based approaches for promoting land‐based carbon‐mitigation and future directions for economics research.

additionality↗
DOE OSTI2020

China’s Booming Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market—How Will It Continue?

The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is recognized as a pivotal component in transportation energy security and technology innovation in China. With government incentives and substantial capital investments, the Chinese PEV market has become one of the largest in the world. However, is this market boom ephemeral or will it be continuing? This chapter provides a general review of the Chinese PEV market mainly from the consumer per-spective, by summarizing the characteristics of the vehicle policies and consumer concerns in the PEV market in recent years. Moreover, it intro-duces detailed examples on how the policies, technologies, and infrastruc-ture shape the market. In addition to employing large amounts of reliable data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center for the review, the authors also adopted a quantitative analysis tool—the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits model—to project the potential in-dustrial impacts of the government policies in multiple scenarios. Based on the findings, it seems that the prosperity of the PEV market, incentivized by the government, will continue in the short run. The direct subsidies to PEV from the government will gradually phase out, and the supply-side push policies such as the dual-credit policy and other charging infrastruc-ture incentives will work as the invisible hand to force the automakers to invest more in the PEV segment. However, in the long run, innovation in PEV technology and business models, together with consumer acceptance will be the major factors that can sustain further market growth.

Ou, Shawn↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aggregation in bottom-up vulnerability assessments and equity implications: The case of Jordanian households’ water supply

Bottom-up methods for water resources modeling rely on acceptability thresholds to find, through a response surface, which deeply uncertain futures lead to system failure. They commonly treat water users as aggregate actors, which may preclude analysis of the equity impacts of interventions. This paper explores how aggregation choices for large groups of water users lead to different policy recommendations in response surface assessments. Herein, two aggregation methods with varying parameters are considered: percentile satisfaction targets and generalized mean. A 2-dimensional stress-test assessment across groundwater availability and population is applied to household water supply in Jordan. The study compares six different policies covering supply enhancement and rebalancing, using a country-wide multi-agent model that characterizes households across socioeconomic strata. For different aggregation levels, policies are ordered by their associated robustness index. Results show that aggregation choices may modify response surfaces as much as policy changes and strongly determine policy preference. Modifying allocation rules can substantially reduce the disparity in household vulnerability. Preferences defined by aggregation intervals provide a finer understanding of trade-offs among water users and may improve deliberation over equity under deep uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Win-win transportation strategies for India: Linking air pollution and climate mitigation

Here, this article analyzes road transport in India to explore linkages between air pollution and climate change policies in the transportation sector. Five teams modeled five policy scenarios – fuel efficiency, electrification, alternative fuels, modal shifts, and moderation in transport demand – to explore which policy brings the largest synergetic effects in reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) emissions. The teams also modeled the comprehensive scenario which included policy measures from individual scenarios. The paper concludes that all of the measures provide strong co-benefits in reducing air pollutant and CO 2 emissions. The modeling results show that increased energy efficiency of passenger and freight vehicles has the largest protentional for reducing both CO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions. It is possible to reach even a larger reduction of air pollutants and CO 2 emissions by combining several policy measures in the comprehensive scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reinforcement learning approach to long-horizon operations, health, and maintenance supervisory control of advanced energy systems

In this work, we develop a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach to the supervisory control problem for advanced energy systems, such as novel nuclear reactors and other demand-driven, mission-critical, and component-health-sensitive energy plants. The inclusive problem landscape considered captures the stochastic confluence of plant performance, component health evolution, power demand from the grid, diverse maintenance actions, and operator-defined goals and constraints, all considered over meaningfully long-enough reasoning horizons. Key aspects of the proposed approach are a receding horizon control-inspired technique dictating time- or event-triggered supervisory policy (re-)constructions, as well as additional capability-enabling contributions such as timescale compression, to handle long reasoning horizons and uncertainty in parts of the problem, and practical yet demonstrably-effective handling of hybrid action spaces with continuous and discrete decision variables. The resulting algorithm consists of a simulation-based RL agent constructing stochastic supervisory control policies over nontrivial action spaces and for long horizons, applying the learned policy to the system for a much shorter interval, and perpetually repeating, to construct the next long-horizon policy. That next policy will only be applied, again, for a short interval, yet originally far-in-time events move progressively closer, their associated uncertainty decreases, and new events and aspects enter the reasoning horizon. The proposed methodology bridges fundamental receding horizon concepts with the unequivocally stronger and more scalable reasoning of contemporary RL. Numerical examples using Soft Actor–Critic Deep RL illustrate the operation and efficacy of the proposed technique for a power plant tasked with health-aware load following missions in a dynamic electricity market landscape.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗