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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

DEVELOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE-BASED PROBABILISTIC FLOOD MAPS FOR PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD

The magnitude and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes are expected to increase in a changing environment that threaten the security of US energy-water assets. This includes probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) which are used as hydraulic design standards for critical infrastructures such as major hydropower reservoirs and nuclear power plants. To assess the potential flood hazards due to PMP/PMF, an integrated high resolution process-based hydro-meteorologic modeling framework was utilized to develop ensemble-based probabilistic flood maps based on best-available historic observations and future climate projections. A graphical process unit accelerated 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the surface inundation areas corresponding to a total of PMF hydrographs. These ensemble-based PMF maps were compared with flood maps obtained from the conventional deterministic PMP/PMF approach, revealing added information of conditional probability of flooding. Further, a relative sensitivity test was conducted to explore the effects of various factors in the framework such as meteorological forcings, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage, and flood model input resolution and parameters. The proposed framework better illustrates the uncertainties associated with model inputs, parameterization and hydro-meteorological factors allowing more informed decision-making for future emergency preparation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Designing a User Interface for Real-Time Magnetometer Data Acquisition

The Matter-wave Atomic Gradiometer Interferometric Sensor (MAGIS-100) is a next-generation quantum sensor designed to search for ultralight dark matter and explore new frontiers in quantum mechanics. Due to the experiment’s sensitivity to magnetic interference, a magnetometer trolley system was developed to scan magnetic fields along a vacuum tube. Interacting with the system required command-line inputs, creating usability challenges. To improve accessibility and streamline data acquisition, I developed a graphical user interface (GUI) using Python and the customtkinter library. The GUI supports real-time data display, state/mode switching, command execution, and CSV file management. I collaborated with another intern to integrate data visualization features into the GUI, allowing users to generate 3D plots of post-acquisition magnetic field data. In the future, I aim to fix the real-time plotting feature as it results in an unresponsive GUI.

Mendez, Milagros [DuPage Coll.]↗

Development of Waste Inventory for Probabilistic Performance Assessment Modeling - 19361

Estimation of radioactive waste inventory is a key initial step in the development of an environmental fate and transport model for performance assessment (PA) of radioactive waste sites. PA model output is often sensitive to parameters that represent inventory as a source term, yet estimation is a difficult problem. Inventory estimation for a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) is related to, but distinct from, that performed for waste excavation, characterization, and offsite disposal. The latter appropriately focuses on obtaining the most detailed information possible on specific hazards and locations; however, these questions cannot be fully answered without intrusive site characterization efforts. This type of characterization is often not feasible when assembling information regarding a source term in a PPA model. Development of waste inventory for a PPA is one piece of a larger hierarchical model. The physical process model represented by Goldsim computer code represents one level of the hierarchy, and the second level of the hierarchy involves estimation of inputs such as inventory, transport, and risk parameters. The estimation of inputs is not a straightforward problem. The parameters of a computer model often do not have an equivalence to the physical quantities they describe, and estimation of the physical quantities themselves can be difficult due to limitations of available information. Inventory information for the West Valley Site in upstate New York is based on data from historical shipping and disposal forms. In the 1990's, the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) compiled information from existing databases and historical waste records into one complete modern database. A conceptual model was then applied and used with recorded information to characterize the waste mass and radionuclide composition for each waste burial. Information was ultimately aggregated over all waste records to estimate the mass of each radionuclide within each trench, hole, or caisson. Three decades later, we revisit the master database, make updates with newly-identified information, and incorporate the conceptual model previously used for inventory estimation in the hierarchical modeling framework. We characterize uncertainty using probability distributions for waste mass and radionuclide composition at the individual shipment or individual burial level. Uncertainty incorporated at the lowest level of the hierarchy is ultimately carried through to uncertainty in PPA model endpoints. Sensitivity analysis of early model results is then applied to identify influential inputs and guide subsequent efforts towards parameters that drive risk. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Reusable Rocket Engine Operability Modeling and Analysis

This paper describes the methodology, model, input data, and analysis results of a reusable launch vehicle engine operability study conducted with the goal of supporting design from an operations perspective. Paralleling performance analyses in schedule and method, this requires the use of metrics in a validated operations model useful for design, sensitivity, and trade studies. Operations analysis in this view is one of several design functions. An operations concept was developed given an engine concept and the predicted operations and maintenance processes incorporated into simulation models. Historical operations data at a level of detail suitable to model objectives were collected, analyzed, and formatted for use with the models, the simulations were run, and results collected and presented. The input data used included scheduled and unscheduled timeline and resource information collected into a Space Transportation System (STS) Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) historical launch operations database. Results reflect upon the importance not only of reliable hardware but upon operations and corrective maintenance process improvements.

Christenson, R. L.↗

Fuel performance uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in the presence of epistemic and aleatoric sources of uncertainties

Fuel performance modeling and simulation includes many uncertain parameters from models to boundary conditions, manufacturing parameters and material properties. These parameters exhibit large uncertainties and can have an epistemic or aleatoric nature, something that renders fuel performance code-to-code and code-to-measurements comparisons for complex phenomena such as the pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) very challenging. Additionally, PCMI and other complex phenomena found in fuel performance modeling and simulation induce strong discontinuities and non-linearities that can render difficult to extract meaningful conclusions form uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) studies. In this work, we develop and apply a consistent treatment of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties for both UQ and SA in fuel performance calculations and use historical benchmark-quality measurement data to demonstrate it. More specifically, the developed methodology is applied to the OECD/NEA Multi-physics Pellet Cladding Mechanical Interaction Validation benchmark. A cold ramp test leading to PCMI is modeled. Two measured quantities of interest are considered: the cladding axial elongation during the irradiations and the cladding outer diameter after the cold ramp. The fuel performance code used to perform the simulation is FAST. The developed methodology involves various steps including a Morris screening to decrease the number of uncertain inputs, a nested loop approach for propagating the epistemic and aleatoric sources of uncertainties, and a global SA using Sobol indices. The obtained results indicate that the fuel and cladding thermal conductivities as well as the cladding outer diameter uncertainties are the three inputs having the largest impact on the measured quantities. More importantly, it was found that the epistemic uncertainties can have a significant impact on the measured quantities and can affect the outcome of the global sensitivity analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Design and Development of 256x256 Linear Mode Low-Noise Avalanche Photodiode Arrays

A larger format photodiode array is always desirable for many LADAR imaging applications. However, as the array format increases, the laser power or the lens aperture has to increase to maintain the same flux per pixel thus increasing the size, weight and power of the imaging system. In order to avoid this negative impact, it is essential to improve the pixel sensitivity. The sensitivity of a short wavelength infrared linear-mode avalanche photodiode (APD) is a delicate balance of quantum efficiency, usable gain, excess noise factor, capacitance, and dark current of APD as well as the input equivalent noise of the amplifier. By using InA1As as a multiplication layer in an InP-based APD, the ionization coefficient ratio, k, is reduced from 0.40 (lnP) to 0.22, and the excess noise is reduced by about 50%. An additional improvement in excess noise of 25% was achieved by employing an impact-ionization-engineering structure with a k value of 0.15. Compared with the traditional InP structure, about 30% reduction in the noise-equivalent power with the following amplifier can be achieved. Spectrolab demonstrated 30-um mesa APD pixels with a dark current less than 10 nA and a capacitance of 60 fF at gain of 10. APD gain uninformity determines the usable gain of most pixels in an array, which is critical to focal plane array sensitivity. By fine tuning the material growth and device process, a break-down-voltage standard deviation of 0.1 V and gain of 30 on individual pixels were demonstrated in our 256x256 linear-mode APD arrays.

Yuan, Ping↗

Uncertainty quantification for evaluating the impacts of fracture zone on pressure build-up and ground surface uplift during geological CO₂ sequestration

A series of numerical test cases reflecting broad and realistic ranges of geological formation and preexisting fault properties was developed to systematically evaluate the impacts of preexisting faults on pressure buildup and ground surface uplift during CO₂ injection. Numerical test cases were conducted using a coupled hydro-geomechanical simulator, eSTOMP (extreme-scale Subsurface Transport over Multiple Phases). For efficient sensitivity analysis and reliable construction of a reduced-order model, a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method was applied to effectively sample a high-dimensional input parameter space to explore uncertainties associated with hydrologic, geologic, and geomechanical properties. The uncertainty quantification results show that the impacts on geomechanical response from the pre-existing faults mainly depend on reservoir and fault permeability. When the fault permeability is two to three orders of magnitude smaller than the reservoir permeability, the fault can be considered as an impermeable block that resists fluid transport in the reservoir, which causes pressure increase near the fault. When the fault permeability is close to the reservoir permeability, or higher than 10⁻¹⁵ m² in this study, the fault can be considered as a conduit that penetrates the caprock, connecting the fluid flow between the reservoir and the upper rock.

CO₂ geological sequestration↗

Transforming an ATP-dependent enzyme into a dissipative, self-assembling system

Nucleoside triphosphate (NTP)-dependent protein assemblies such as microtubules and actin filaments have inspired the development of diverse chemically fueled molecular machines and active materials but their functional sophistication has yet to be matched by design. Given this challenge, we asked whether it is possible to transform a natural adenosine 5'-triphosphate (ATP)-dependent enzyme into a dissipative self-assembling system, thereby altering the structural and functional mode in which chemical energy is used. Furthermore we report that FtsH (filamentous temperature-sensitive protease H), a hexameric ATPase involved in membrane protein degradation, can be readily engineered to form one-dimensional helical nanotubes. FtsH nanotubes require constant energy input to maintain their integrity and degrade over time with the concomitant hydrolysis of ATP, analogous to natural NTP-dependent cytoskeletal assemblies. Yet, in contrast to natural dissipative systems, ATP hydrolysis is catalyzed by free FtsH protomers and FtsH nanotubes serve to conserve ATP, leading to transient assemblies whose lifetimes can be tuned from days to minutes through the inclusion of external ATPases in solution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Energy, greenhouse gas, and water life cycle analysis of synthetic graphite anode production in the United States

This study presents a comprehensive life cycle analysis of potential synthetic graphite battery anode material (BAM) production in the U.S. based on industrial-scale data. The analysis focuses on three impacts: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, total energy use, and water consumption. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of variation in process parameters and energy sources used for synthetic graphite BAM production on its life cycle GHG emissions. A detailed supply chain analysis of graphite BAM in the U.S. was also undertaken, along with a study of its associated GHG emissions. The results show GHG emissions of 29.7 kg CO 2 -eq. per kg BAM, total energy use of 580 MJ kg −1 BAM, and water consumption of 121 L kg −1 BAM for the baseline condition. The graphitization step is a major process hotspot, contributing to over 74% of all impacts. This is attributed to the energy and material input requirements for this step, particularly through the use of crucibles. Across the entire synthetic graphite production process, electricity is the primary contributor, followed by crucibles used in graphite block production, and then calcined petroleum coke. Sensitivity analyses indicate that improvement in micronization yield, reuse of crucibles, and use of low-carbon nuclear energy can significantly reduce GHG emissions of potential domestic graphite production (by ∼70%). Supply chain analysis identified major graphite BAM sources in the U.S. and showed that the U.S. has a competitive advantage in domestic production of synthetic graphite BAM in terms of reduced life cycle GHG emissions compared to present-day imported sources (by ∼20%).

Battery anode↗

All-Pathways Dose Analysis for the Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility (OSWDF)

A Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility (OSWDF) All-Pathways analysis has been conducted that considers the radiological impacts to a resident farmer. It is assumed that the resident farmer utilizes a farm pond contaminated by the OSWDF to irrigate a garden and pasture and water livestock from which food for the resident farmer is obtained, and that the farmer utilizes groundwater from the Berea sandstone aquifer for domestic purposes (i.e. drinking water and showering). As described by FBP 2014b the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model (Schroeder et al. 1994) and the Surface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP) model (White and Oostrom 2000, 2006) were used to model the flow and transport from the OSWDF to the Points of Assessment (POAs) associated with the 680-ft elevation sandstone layer (680 SSL) and the Berea sandstone aquifer. From this modeling the activity concentrations radionuclides were projected over time at the POAs. The activity concentrations were utilized as input to a GoldSimTM (GTG 2010) dose model, described herein, in order to project the dose to a resident farmer over time. A base case and five sensitivity cases were analyzed. The sensitivity cases included an evaluation of the impacts of using a conservative inventory, an uncased well to the Berea sandstone aquifer, a low waste zone uranium distribution coefficient (Kd), different transfer factors, and reference person exposure parameters (i.e. at 95 percentile). The maximum base case dose within the 1,000 year assessment period was projected to be 1.5E-14 mrem/yr, and the maximum base case dose at any time less than 10,000 years was projected to be 0.002 mrem/yr. The maximum projected dose of any sensitivity case was approximately 2.6 mrem/yr associated with the use of an uncased well to the Berea sandstone aquifer. This sensitivity case is considered very unlikely because it assumes leakage from the location of greatest concentration in the 680 SSL in to the Berea sandstone aquiver over time and does not conform to standard private water well construction practices. The bottom-line is that all predicted doses from the base case and five sensitivity cases fall well below the DOE all-pathways 25 mrem/yr Performance Objective.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

xLPR Post-Processing Documentation

The outputs available in the xLPR Version 2.0 code can be analyzed using statistical techniques that have been developed to compare sampling scheme selection, identify inputs for importance sampling, and assess result convergence and uncertainty. These techniques were developed and piloted for both the xLPR Scenario Analysis (SA) Report and the xLPR Sensitivity Analysis Template. This document provides a walk-through of the post-processing R code that was used to generate the results and figures presented in these documents. This page intentionally left blank.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Constraint on a cosmological variation in the proton-to-electron mass ratio from electronic co absorption

Carbon monoxide (CO) absorption in the sub-damped Lyα absorber at redshift z{sub abs}≃2.69 toward the background quasar SDSS J123714.60+064759.5 (J1237+0647) was investigated for the first time in order to search for a possible variation of the proton-to-electron mass ratio, μ, over a cosmological timescale. The observations were performed with the Very Large Telescope/Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph with a signal-to-noise ratio of 40 per 2.5 km s{sup −1} per pixel at ∼5000 Å. Thirteen CO vibrational bands in this absorber are detected: the A{sup 1}Π − X{sup 1}Σ{sup +} (ν{sup ′}, 0) for ν{sup ′}=0--8, B{sup 1}Σ{sup +} − X{sup 1}Σ{sup +} (0, 0), C{sup 1}Σ{sup +} − X{sup 1}Σ{sup +} (0, 0), and E{sup 1}Π − X{sup 1}Σ{sup +} (0, 0) singlet–singlet bands and the d{sup 3}Δ − X{sup 1}Σ{sup +} (5, 0) singlet–triplet band. An updated database including the most precise molecular inputs needed for a μ-variation analysis is presented for rotational levels J = 0–5, consisting of transition wavelengths, oscillator strengths, natural lifetime damping parameters, and sensitivity coefficients to a variation of the proton-to-electron mass ratio. A comprehensive fitting method was used to fit all the CO bands at once and an independent constraint of Δμ/μ=(0.7±1.6{sub stat}±0.5{sub syst})×10{sup −5} was derived from CO only. A combined analysis using both molecular hydrogen and CO in the same J1237+0647 absorber returned a final constraint on the relative variation of Δμ/μ=(−5.6±5.6{sub stat}±3.1{sub syst})×10{sup −6}, which is consistent with no variation over a look-back time of ∼11.4 Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assessing Total Cost of Driving Competitiveness of Zero-Emission Trucks

This file includes supporting data on modeled medium and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) stock, sales, energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and total cost of driving (TCD) for the scenarios presented in "Assessing Total Cost of Driving Competitiveness of Zero-Emission Trucks". It also includes input assumptions for vehicle technology attributes (cost and fuel economy), fuel costs, maintenance costs, and the opportunity cost of charging time for the central scenario and relevant sensitivities. Values are reported at the national (United States) level for all vehicle classes and technologies. Tab 'B' inclues definitions, while data is provided in subsequent sheets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Feedback system design with an uncertain plant

A method is developed to design a fixed-parameter compensator for a linear, time-invariant, SISO (single-input single-output) plant model characterized by significant structured, as well as unstructured, uncertainty. The controller minimizes the H(infinity) norm of the worst-case sensitivity function over the operating band and the resulting feedback system exhibits robust stability and robust performance. It is conjectured that such a robust nonadaptive control design technique can be used on-line in an adaptive control system.

Milich, D.↗

System analysis in rotorcraft design: The past decade

Rapid advances in the technology of electronic digital computers and the need for an integrated synthesis approach in developing future rotorcraft programs has led to increased emphasis on system analysis techniques in rotorcraft design. The task in systems analysis is to deal with complex, interdependent, and conflicting requirements in a structured manner so rational and objective decisions can be made. Whether the results are wisdom or rubbish depends upon the validity and sometimes more importantly, the consistency of the inputs, the correctness of the analysis, and a sensible choice of measures of effectiveness to draw conclusions. In rotorcraft design this means combining design requirements, technology assessment, sensitivity analysis and reviews techniques currently in use by NASA and Army organizations in developing research programs and vehicle specifications for rotorcraft. These procedures span simple graphical approaches to comprehensive analysis on large mainframe computers. Examples of recent applications to military and civil missions are highlighted.

Galloway, Thomas L.↗

Optical correlation with phase encoding and phase filtering

The image-encoding optical activity of a deformable-mirror device (DMD) has been investigated by means of numerical simulations in the Fourier plane. Simulation results are presented which reveal the sensitivity of phase-encoded/phase-filtered systems to noise, in-plane rotation, and magnification. The present simulations are based on phase-only modulation in the input and filter planes, and do not illustrate the 'phase-mostly' nature of the devices. A procedure to achieve a filter for a real system is proposed based on a simplistic model of a DMD pixel and preliminary device data.

Juday, Richard D.↗

The direct effects of gravity on the control and output matrices of controlled structure models

The effects of gravity on the dynamic performance of structural control actuators and sensors are dual forms of an additive perturbation that can attenuate or amplify the device response (input or output). The modal modeling of these perturbations is derived for the general case of arbitrarily oriented devices and arbitrarily oriented planes of deformation. A nondimensional sensitivity analysis to identify the circumstances under which the effects of gravity are important is presented. Results show that gravity effects become important when the product of the ratio of the normalized modal slope and the modal displacement is comparable to the ratio of the gravitational acceleration and the product of the beam length and the squared eigenfrequency for a given mode.

Rey, Daniel A.↗

Method for determining the frequency-response characteristics of an element or system from the system transient output response to a known input function

A method is presented for the determination of the frequency-response characteristics of an element or system by utilizing the transient output response to a known but arbitrary input to the system. Since the application of special inputs, such as step functions or sinusoids, is often imperfect or impractical, a method for utilizing arbitrary inputs is desirable. Simple flight-test data may be reduced by this method to give the frequency response of an aircraft. Examples are given as determinations of aircraft frequency responses; however, the method can be applied to any type of dynamic system, such as automatic-control components, vibration-absorption equipment, and many types of instruments. The method requires that the arbitrary input function tend to a finite value after a finite time and that the system or element output be measured as a representative quantity having a static sensitivity. (author)

Curfman, Howard J↗