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Impact of GMI All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in the NASA GEOS Forecast System

The assimilation of cloud- and precipitation-affected ("all-sky") radiances has become an important focus of development at most numerical weather prediction centers. Efforts at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have focused on all-sky assimilation of GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiances, which became operational in the GEOS real-time production system in July 2018. Implementation of the all-sky capability required several upgrades to the GEOS hybrid 4D-EnVar assimilation infrastructure including the addition of control variables for cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain and snow, enhancements to the radiative transfer model, new hybrid background and observational error models, and modified quality control and bias correction procedures. This talk describes the impact of GMI all-sky radiance assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts as determined from examination of various metrics including statistics of background departures and analysis increments, forecast skill scores, and forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) calculations. It is shown that in addition to the hydrometeors themselves, the initial wind, temperature and pressure fields all undergo significant dynamic adjustment in response to the analyzed cloud and precipitation features. Assimilation of GMI radiances leads to improved forecasts of lower tropospheric wind, temperature and humidity, especially in the tropics. The largest forecast improvements occur during the first 48 hours, with diminishing impact thereafter. However, combining GMI all-sky assimilation with improvements to the GEOS model physics as in the recent implementation of the real-time production system, extends these forecast improvements well in to the medium range. FSOI results based on a 24-hr moist global energy norm show that GMI radiances provide nearly uniform beneficial impact throughout the tropics, with more mixed impacts in the subtropics. While the overall impact of GMI is smaller than that of other, much more numerous microwave and hyperspectral infrared radiance types, its impact is among the largest of all radiance types on a per-observation basis.

Gelaro, Ron↗

A New Crater Near Insight: Implications for Seismic Impact Detectability on Mars

A new 1.5 m diameter impact crater was discovered on Mars only ~40 km from the InSight lander. Context camera images constrained its formation between 21 February and 6 April 2019; follow-up High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment images resolved the crater. During this time period, three seismic events were identified in InSight data. We derive expected seismic signal characteristics and use them to evaluate each of the seismic events. However, none of them can definitively be associated with this source. Atmospheric perturbations are generally expected to be generated during impacts; however, in this case, no signal could be identified as related to the known impact. Using scaling relationships based on the terrestrial and lunar analogs and numerical modeling, we predict the amplitude, peak frequency, and duration of the seismic signal that would have emanated from this impact. The predicted amplitude falls near the lowest levels of the measured seismometer noise for the predicted frequency. Hence, it is not surprising this impact event was not positively identified in the seismic data. Finding this crater was a lucky event as its formation this close to InSight has a probability of only ~0.2, and the odds of capturing it in before and after images are extremely low. We revisit impact-seismic discriminators in light of real experience with a seismometer on the Martian surface. Using measured noise of the instrument, we revise our previous prediction of seismic impact detections downward, from ~a few to tens, to just ~2 per Earth year, still with an order of magnitude uncertainty.

I. J. Daubar↗

Pink Spinel in Apollo Impact Melt Rock 68815: Implications for Mg-Suite Magmatism

Introduction: Magnesian rocks from the lunar highlands are collectively termed the Mg-suite. Characterized by high (>60) Mg# (molar 100×Mg/[Mg+Fe]) in mafic phases and calcic plagioclase, these rocks are plutonic to hypabyssal in origin, and include a range of bulk mineralogies such as troctolites, dunites, norites, gabbronorites, and spinel troctolites [1]. These Mg-suite lithologies have distinct trace element concentrations and ratios that differentiate them from other lunar rock types. These rocks are ancient, generally dated to between 4.5 and 4.1 Ga, although it is unknown if this represents the full range of Mg-suite ages [1–2]. Among the Mg-suite lithologies, the spinel troctolites are relatively rare, to date only found in polymict breccias [3]. Spinel troctolites, as their name suggests, consist of calcic plagioclase and forsteritic olivine, with minor amounts of spinel (MgAl2O4), ± pyroxene and cordierite [1,4]. This form of spinel is often called ‘pink’ spinel because of its appearance in thin section under plane polarized light (PPL; Fig. 1), due to minor amounts of Cr. Spinel troctolites are generally plutonic or hypabyssal in origin (subsequently exhumed and incorporated into polymict breccias), or formed through impact processes (e.g., crystalline impact melt) [5]. A spinel-rich lithology has also been found in the Moscoviense region of the Moon via the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) and lacks other mafic phases [6]. Finally, while the Mg-suite sampled thus far consists of plutonic (or hypabyssal) rocks, the question remains if such magmas could have erupted on the surface of the Moon [7]. These magmas have much lower density than mare basalts, but little sample or remote sensing evidence has been found to support the idea that extrusive Mg-suite volcanism occurred [7]. Here, we present a coordinated microanalytical study of spinel-bearing lithic and mineral clasts found in Apollo sample 68815. These data will be used to understand their petrogenesis (magmatic or impact) and modification histories, and to shed light on the existence of volcanic Mg-suite rocks. Sample Description: Apollo sample 68815 is a polymict impact melt breccia containing a variety of lithic and mineral fragments embedded in devitrified impact melt. This sample was chipped off the top of a boulder at Station 8 during the Apollo 16 mission and had an original weight of nearly 1.8 kg. In this study, we investigated two polished thin sections of 68815: 68815,17 and 68815,148, both containing spinel. Methods: The thin sections of 68815 were studied using optical light microscopy (PPL, cross-polarized light, and reflected light) with a Keyence VHX-7100 Digital Microscope. Each section was then X-ray mapped for 13–14 elements using a Cameca SX100 electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) located in the Kuiper Materials Imaging and Characterization Facility (KMICF) at the University of Arizona. We have obtained geochemical information about the phases (olivine, plagioclase, spinel, pyroxene) in the thin sections also using the EPMA. In addition, we have used ThermoScientific Helios NanoLab 660 Focused-Ion-Beam Scanning-Electron Microscope (FIB-SEM) and a Hitachi S-4800 SEM (both in KMICF) to obtain backscattered electron (BSE) images and energy dispersive Xray spectrometry (EDS) maps of areas of interest. Using a JEOL 7900F SEM at the Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science (ARES) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), we have obtained electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps of the spinel-bearing portions of the thin sections. The EBSD data were collected under beam conditions of 20 kV, and ~90 μA, with step sizes varying from 0.05 to 2 μm. Following EBSD data collection, we processed the data using AZtecCrystal and MTEX, a free MATLAB toolbox. Results: We have found clasts with subophitic textures, that consist of primarily olivine and plagioclase, with minor amounts of pink Mg-Al spinel and pyroxene (Fig. 1). These clasts are up to ~1 mm in length and contain spinels up to 50 μm across. We have additionally identified pink Mg-Al spinels within the impact melt (i.e., not contained in lithic clasts) in both thin sections. In one instance, a single spinel grain is approximately 300 μm across (Fig. 1b, 2). The spinel fragments embedded in impact melt have varying compositions, typically distinct from the compositions of spinels in the lithic clasts. Spinel-Bearing Clasts: Ten lithic clasts with similar textures and mineral compositions were identified between 68815,17 (two clasts) and ,148 (eight clasts). These clasts fall into two groups. The first has skeletal olivine with intergranular plagioclase, with minor amounts of pyroxene and spinel (Fig. 1a, 2c, 2d). The spinel in these clasts are found amid the plagioclase. The second group have an intergranular texture of olivine and plagioclase, again with minor spinel and pyroxene. The second group may contain spinels surrounded by plagioclase, and spinels enclosed in olivine. Spinels located within both clast types range from no apparent Cr zoning, to reverse zoning (Cr-enrichment inward; Fig. 2d), to normal zoning (Cr-enrichment outward). In the clasts thus far investigated with EPMA, plagioclase compositions range from An# (molar 100×Ca/[Ca+Na+K]) 92–96. Olivine Mg# ranged from 77 to 94, while pyroxene had Mg# from 54–84. Spinel in the clasts have Cr# (molar 100×Cr/[Cr+Al]) 2–4 and Mg# 88–91, which is within the range of pristine and plutonic spinel troctolites [8]. Isolated Spinels: These crystals are generally euhedral to subhedral, and can exhibit reverse Cr zoning (Cr enrichment inward) or no apparent Cr zoning. The spinels thus far investigated via EPMA have Cr# 9–14 and Mg# 65–82. The Cr# for these spinels is within the range reported by [8], but have lower Mg#. Future Work: We will continue to process the EBSD data for these lithic and mineral clasts. We will also continue to characterize these clasts using EPMA and SEM. By thoroughly characterizing the various spinels and spinel-bearing clasts, we aim to constrain the petrogenesis of these minerals and rock fragments. Acknowledgments: We thank NASA for the loan of these thin sections. We thank Ken Domanik and Jerry Chang for their support with data collection. Work was supported by a University of Arizona RII Core Facilities Pilot Program grant and start-up funds to JJB. We acknowledge support from NASA’s Planetary Science Research program for analysis performed at JSC. References: [1] Shearer C. K. et al. (2015) Am. Min. 100, 294–325. [2] Borg L. E. et al. (2020) GCA 290, 312–332. [3] Warren P. H. (1993) Am. Min. 78, 360–376. [4] Dymek R. F. et al. (1976) LPS VII, 2335–2378. [5] Treiman et al. (2019) Am. Min. 104, 370–384. [6] Pieters et al. (2011) JGR: Plan. 116:E00G08. [7] Prissel et al. (2016) Icarus 277, 319–329. [8] Prissel et al. (2016) Am. Min. 101, 1624–1635.

spinel↗

Impact Real World System Validation

Introduction NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model. This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. A validation analysis of IMPACT was performed with respect to a set of International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle Transportation System (STS) real world system (RWS) referent data due to the limited referent data available from exploration missions. Methods Observed mission and crew characteristics from STS and ISS missions were used as model inputs within MEDPRAT (Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool). For each mission, two hundred thousand simulations were generated. For each mission, model outputs included occurrence counts for each condition, total medical events (TME), and the probability of loss of crew life (LOCL). These simulated model outputs were compared to the RWS referent data. Results The predicted number of total medical events exceeded the total RWS medical events for ISS missions and combined ISS and STS missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for STS missions. For the 32 ISS missions simulated by IMPACT, the number of total medical events was overpredicted for 19 missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for 13 missions. For the 21 STS missions, the total number of medical events was overpredicted for 3 missions, fell within the 90% confidence interval for 16 missions, and was underpredicted for 2 missions. Combined, 29 missions were in range, 22 were overpredicted, and 2 were underpredicted. The predicted LOCL probability for the 32 ISS missions, the 21 STS missions, and the combined ISS and STS missions was consistent with the zero LOCL events observed in the RWS referent data. The validation analysis included a comparison of the number of medical events predicted by IMPACT and the number of medical events observed in the RWS data on a condition-by-condition basis. For ISS missions, 50 conditions were in range, 52 conditions were statistically underpowered (not enough observed sample to draw any conclusions on precision), 8 conditions were overpredicted, and 9 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 14% (17/119) of conditions were out of range for STS missions, 40 conditions were in range, 59 conditions were statistically underpowered, 10 conditions were overpredicted, and 10 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 17% (20/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 11 conditions were overpredicted, and 11 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 18% (22/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 49 conditions were in range, 46 conditions were statistically underpowered, 18 conditions were overpredicted, and 8 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, 21% (26/121) of conditions were out of range. Conclusion The results of this validation analysis should not be interpreted as a pass/fail test of the validity of IMPACT. Instead, this validation analysis should be used to assess some of the IMPACT outcomes in terms of consistencies and inconsistencies with the ISS and STS RWS referent data.

L. Boley↗

Baseline Medical System Translation for the Impact Medical Database

NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). Whereas IMM focuses on the resources and risks associated with International Space Station (ISS) and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions, IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. One of the services offered by IMM is a series of generic or baseline medical systems associated with typical mission types or DRMs (Design Reference Missions), such that requestors may prioritize questions pertaining to the mission itself over the medical supplies indicated by the model outputs for that DRM. In a mission focused request, the appropriate baseline medical system is used in place of a prepared or optimized medical kit. In preparation, an effort was undertaken to create baseline systems of medical resources within IMPACT suitable for typical DRMs. Using an existing baseline medical system within IMM’s Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) as a starting point, the resources found within the medical kit were compared to and substituted for equivalent resources available within the IMPACT MD (Medical Database). In consultation with clinicians with knowledge of IMPACT’s MD, each resource was matched as closely as possible to a similarly purposed resource in IMPACT, seeking to preserve the treatment capabilities and procedures offered by the IMM medical system while reconciling the differences in modeled resources and medical conditions between the models. To demonstrate the efficacy of this work, a prototype ISS medical system in IMPACT was translated from the baseline used in the IMM. The appropriate medical system was then run through its associated medical model to compare and validate the resultant risks and risk mitigation provided by each baseline ISS medical kit.

S Schwartz↗

Impact of CAV Technologies on Energy Consumption of Advanced Electrified Vehicles

Transportation system simulation is a widely accepted approach to evaluate the impact of transport policy deployment. In developing a transportation system deployment model, the energy impact of the model is extremely valuable for sustainability and validation. It is expected that different penetration levels of Connected-Automated Vehicles (CAVs) will impact the travel behavior due to changes in potential factors such as congestion, miles traveled, etc. Along with such impact analyses, it is also important to further quantify the regional energy impact of CAV deployment under different factors of interest. The objective of this paper is to study the different penetration levels of CAVs deployment in the City of Chicago and how it impacts the energy consumption of electrified vehicles in the future. The paper will further provide a statistical analysis of the results to evaluate the impact of the different penetration levels on the different electrified powertrains used in the study.

Islam, Ehsan Sabri↗

Impact Analyses and Tests of Metal Cask Considering Aircraft Engine Crash - 12308

The structural integrity of a dual purpose metal cask currently under development by the Korea Radioactive Waste Management Cooperation (KRMC) is evaluated through analyses and tests under a high-speed missile impact considering the targeted aircraft crash conditions. The impact conditions were carefully chosen through a survey on accident cases and recommendations from the literature. The missile impact velocity was set at 150 m/s, and two impact orientations were considered. A simplified missile simulating a commercial aircraft engine is designed from an impact load history curve provided in the literature. In the analyses, the focus is on the evaluation of the containment boundary integrity of the metal cask. The analyses results are compared with the results of tests using a 1/3 scale model. The results show very good agreements, and the procedure and methodology adopted in the structural analyses are validated. While the integrity of the cask is maintained in one evaluation where the missile impacts the top side of the free standing cask, the containment boundary is breached in another case in which the missile impacts the center of the cask lid in a perpendicular orientation. A safety assessment using a numerical simulation of an aircraft engine crash into spent nuclear fuel storage systems is performed. A commercially available explicit finite element code is utilized for the dynamic simulation, and the strain rate effect is included in the modeling of the materials used in the target system and missile. The simulation results show very good agreement with the test results. It is noted that this is the first test considering an aircraft crash in Korea. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Custom Machine to Convey Radiologically Impacted Cohesive Soils to the Orion ScanSortSM System - 20382

An established method to reduce the volume of material required to be disposed of as radioactive waste is conveyor-based sorting of potentially radiologically impacted soils. With the Orion ScanSortSM system, potentially impacted soils are conveyed beneath radiation detectors and sorted into above and below criteria bins based on the detectors' response. Confident measurements can only be efficiently achieved when the soil column being conveyed has a reasonably consistent geometry. Highly cohesive soils present a very significant challenge as they tend to clump and adhere to the conveyor hopper, strike-off bar, and belt skirting. This causes voids and valleys in the soil column that affect the measurement geometry and reduce the confidence in the measurement. The reduction in confidence necessitates a longer residence time (i.e. reduction in conveyor belt speed and processing rates) or that the soils in highly unfavorable geometries be dispositioned as impacted or segregated for resurvey (should site logistics support that option). These outcomes may increase the volume of material required to be dispositioned as radiological waste and have a negative impact on project cost and schedule. To minimize impact to sorting operations, Wood designed and built a customized Extruder, to optimize the soil column prior to assay. The design was developed and refined to minimize the volume of highly cohesive soils presented in highly unfavorable geometries in the soil column in order to confidently assess and disposition such soils in a high-production environment. The Extruder is a customized 90 cm wide flat conveyor that has an oversized hopper with a pair of motor-driven rollers that force the soils in the hopper through an opening of adjustable height. The soils are extruded through the opening to produce a soil column that is ∼75 cm wide and ∼8-18 cm deep with a design rate of 225 metric tons/hr. The Extruder was recently deployed with the Orion ScanSort{sup SM} System to a site in northeast Ohio. The site has highly cohesive soils that result from the weathering of glacial sediments and consist of clay and clay loam, resulting in poor drainage and high moisture content. The project infrastructure only supported two bins of material (above and below criteria), which necessitated that soils with unfavorable geometries be discharged into the above criteria bin, along with material determined to have been contaminated. The Extruder was extremely successful in producing a stable soil column with favorable geometries for radiological assay. During production, less than 0.5% (by mass) of the soils processed were presented in unsatisfactory geometries requiring disposition as radioactive waste. The Extruder did not get clogged due to the cohesive soils (as is typical with conventional conveyors) and required very little maintenance, again minimizing impacts to sorting operations. The conveyor belt speed was operated at 14 cm/s with a typical belt loading of ∼109 kg/m resulting in a mean process rate of ∼49 metric tons/hr. The process rate was constrained by other project logistics, rather than by the capabilities of the Extruder, which was operated at less than 20% of the maximum design speed (75 cm/s). It is concluded that the Extruder is highly likely to produce a stable highly cohesive soil column suitable for efficient and confident radiological assay in production environments of 250 short tons/hr or more. The Extruder has the capability to drastically reduce the duration and costs of projects with radiologically impacted highly cohesive soils. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Tool to Incorporate Non-Energy Impacts in Energy Efficiency Investment Decision Making for Firms

Energy efficiency is a key demand-side strategy for sustainability, recently identified by the United States Department of Energy as a pillar of industrial decarbonization. The increased focus on decarbonization and the requirement for efficiency to enable electrification, another decarbonization pillar, due to the spark spread between natural gas and electricity prices, make energy efficiency increasingly relevant. Still, industries face challenges in adopting energy efficiency measures. Researchers have long found a gap in adoption of even those measures with a profitable net present value, attributed to lack of strategic value among other barriers (see for rigorous exploration and taxonomy). One solution to facilitate energy efficiency projects is the inclusion of non-energy impacts, as this has been shown to double potential deployment of such projects at system level. Energy efficiency can provide valuable benefits outside of simple operating cost reductions, from decreased pollution to enhanced productivity. The inclusion of these benefits in decision making assessments faces hurdles due to inconsistency of ancillary benefits across projects, difficulties in quantifying impacts and the need for additional measurement to quantify them. The decision-making tools to support this have been designed primarily for the European context. We begin with a stakeholder engagement process to better characterize the U.S. decision making process surrounding adoption of energy efficiency investments. Characterization of non-energy impacts has developed substantially over recent decades. Cagno et al. provided a framework for studying the applicability of these impacts to energy efficiency projects, listing 120 key performance indicators focused mainly on reductions of costs/harms. Other researchers have included impacts on the strategic and revenue side that can be merged into this framework as well. We seek a tractable set of impacts that can be included in a decision-making tool in the US, and as such are well suited to US industry, management and decision making processes. We also seek to understand how to best quantify or characterize these impacts. This work will demonstrate the results of a survey conducted among US manufacturing industry decision makers to assess the decision making landscape of stakeholders as well as the most relevant performance indicators for energy efficiency projects.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

Advancing the theory and practice of impact assessment: Setting the research agenda

Impact assessment has been in place for over 40 years and is now practised in some form in all but two of the world's nations. In this paper we reflect on the state of the art of impact assessment theory and practice, focusing on six well-established forms: EIA, SEA, policy assessment, SIA, HIA and sustainability assessment. We note that although the fundamentals of impact assessment have their roots in the US National Environmental Policy Act 1969 (NEPA) each branch of the field is distinct in also drawing on other theoretical and conceptual bases that in turn shape the prevailing discourse in each case, generating increasing degrees of specialisation within each sub-field. Against this backdrop, we consider the strengths and weaknesses of collective impact assessment practice, concluding that although there are substantial strengths, the plethora of specialist branches is generating a somewhat confusing picture and lack of clarity regarding how the pieces of the impact assessment jigsaw puzzle fit together. We use this review to suggest an overarching research agenda that will enable impact assessment to evolve in line with changing expectations for what it should deliver. -- Highlights: ► Strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats for IA are explored in this paper ► EIA, SEA, policy assessment, SIA, HIA and sustainability assessment are reviewed ► Diversity of practice is both a strength and weakness in the current economic climate ► There are opportunities to simplify IA by focusing on common and fundamental elements ► Continued research into theory related to IA effectiveness is also essential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Putting social impact assessment to the test as a method for implementing responsible tourism practice

The discourse on the social impacts of tourism needs to shift from the current descriptive critique of tourism to considering what can be done in actual practice to embed the management of tourism's social impacts into the existing planning, product development and operational processes of tourism businesses. A pragmatic approach for designing research methodologies, social management systems and initial actions, which is shaped by the real world operational constraints and existing systems used in the tourism industry, is needed. Our pilot study with a small Bulgarian travel company put social impact assessment (SIA) to the test to see if it could provide this desired approach and assist in implementing responsible tourism development practice, especially in small tourism businesses. Our findings showed that our adapted SIA method has value as a practical method for embedding a responsible tourism approach. While there were some challenges, SIA proved to be effective in assisting the staff of our test case tourism business to better understand their social impacts on their local communities and to identify actions to take. - Highlights: • Pragmatic approach is needed for the responsible management of social impacts of tourism. • Our adapted Social impact Assessment (SIA) method has value as a practical method. • SIA can be embedded into tourism businesses existing ‘ways of doing things’. • We identified challenges and ways to improve our method to better suit small tourism business context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptation of EVIAVE methodology for monitoring and follow-up when evaluating the environmental impact of landfills

Treatment and final disposal of Municipal Solid Waste can have a significant role in the generation of negative environmental impacts. As a prevention strategy, such activities are subjected to the process of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Still, the follow-up of Environmental Management Plans or mitigation measures is limited, for one due to a lack of methodological approaches. In searching for possibilities, the University of Granada (Spain) developed a diagnostic methodology named EVIAVE, which allows one to quantify, by means of indexes, the environmental impact of landfills in view of their location and the conditions of exploitation. EVIAVE is applicable within the legal framework of the European Union and can be adapted to the environmental and legal conditions of other countries. This study entails its adaptation in Colombia, for the follow-up and control of the EIA process for landfills. Modifications involved inclusion of the environmental elements flora and fauna, and the evaluation of the environmental descriptors in agreement with the concept of vulnerability. The application of the modified EVIAVE in Colombian landfills allowed us to identify the elements affected by the operating conditions and maintenance. It may be concluded that this methodology is viable and effective for the follow-up and environmental control of EIA processes for landfills, and to analyze the associated risks, as it takes into account related environmental threats and vulnerabilities. - Highlights: • A modified methodology is used to monitor and follow-up environmental impacts in landfills. • The improved methodology includes the Vulnerability of Flora and Fauna to evaluate environmental impact of landfills. • The methodology serves to identify and evaluate the sources of risk generated in the construction and siting of landfills. • Environmental vulnerability indicators improve effectiveness of the control and follow-up phases of landfill management. • The follow-up of environmental management plans may help diminish the implementation gap in Environmental Impact Assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Three-dimensional simulations of oblique asteroid impacts into water

Waves generated by impacts into oceans may represent the most significant danger from near-earth asteroids and comets. For impacts near populated shores, the crown splash and subsequent waves, accompanied by sediment lofting and high winds, are more damaging than storm surges from the strongest hurricanes. Asteroids less than 500 m in diameter, impacting deep water far from shores, produce waves that may be detectable over large distances, but are probably not significantly dangerous. Here, we present new three-dimensional simulations of oblique impacts into deep water, with trajectory angles ranging from 27° to 60° (where 90° is vertical). These simulations are performed with the Los Alamos Rage hydrocode, and include atmospheric effects including ablation and airbursts. These oblique impact simulations are specifically performed in order to help determine whether there are additional dangers from the obliquity of impact not covered by previous two-dimensional studies. Water surface elevation profiles, surface pressures, and depth-averaged mass fluxes within the water are prepared for use in propagation studies

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition

To help mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) generation from burning fossil fuels, many state and local governments are requiring utilities to dramatically increase the share of electricity generated from renewable sources. The City of Los Angeles has set a target of 100% renewable energy by 2045 and has formulated a plan that considers nine potential alternative scenarios that differ by technology, location, and timing. Each scenario has a unique set of local investments, operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and concomitant rate structures. In this study we develop and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model built specifically for LA to estimate and compare the economic impacts for each of the scenarios over time relative to a reference case. We find differences in economic impacts across scenarios, depending on the level and timing of investment and O&M expenditures, as well as differences in the relative rate changes across scenarios. Results show that employment and economic output are positively correlated with greater capital and O&M spending, while higher electricity rates can dampen economic activity. Several scenarios generate positive economic impacts relative to the reference case, showing that the transition need not have harmful economic impacts, and all scenarios generate a number of other positive co-benefits, such as reduced damage to health from the reduction of ordinary air pollutants. The net employment impacts from 2026 to 2045 across the scenarios range from a low of 3,600 job-year losses annually to 4,700 job-year gains, both around only 0.1% of the baseline average annual employment in the city over that period. The analysis also indicates that lower-income households are relatively more affected than others by the scenarios. Overall, even in the most negatively impactful case, the economic output and employment effects are quite small when taken in the context of the overall size of the regional economy and the large reduction in GHGs.

economic impact modeling↗

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program; this study looked more broadly at overall code impacts. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO 2 emissions at the state level and at aggregated levels. This analysis does not represent all potential savings from energy codes in the U.S. because it excludes several states which have codes which are fundamentally different from the national model energy codes or which do not have state-wide codes. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when buildings comply with the code. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. Delayed adoption of a model code and incomplete compliance with the code’s requirements erode potential savings. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes, and are considered in this assessment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deep Minima in the Triply Differential Cross Section for Ionization of Atomic Hydrogen by Electron and Positron Impact

We investigate ionization of atomic hydrogen by electron- and positron-impact. We apply the Coulomb–Born (CB1) approximation, various modified CB1 approximations, the three body distorted wave (3DW) approximation, and the time-dependent close-coupling (TDCC) method to electron-impact ionization of hydrogen. For electron-impact ionization of hydrogen for an incident energy of approximately 76.45 eV, we obtain a deep minimum in the CB1 triply differential cross section (TDCS). However, the TDCC for 74.45 eV and the 3DW for 74.46 eV gave a dip in the TDCS. For positron-hydrogen ionization (breakup) we apply the CB1 approximation and a modified CB1 approximation. We obtain a deep minimum in the TDCS and a zero in the CB1 transition matrix element for an incident energy of 100 eV with a gun angle of 56.13 °. Corresponding to a zero in the CB1 transition matrix element, there is a vortex in the velocity field associated with this element. For both electron- and positron-impact ionization of hydrogen the velocity field rotates in the same direction, which is anticlockwise. All calculations are performed for a doubly symmetric geometry; the electron-impact ionization is in-plane and the positron-impact ionization is out-of-plane.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Effect of Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impact on Modal Response of Persistent Assets

Protecting the infrastructure and payload components of persistent assets (PAs) from damage caused by MicroMeteoroid and/or Orbital Debris (MMOD) impacts is a significant design consideration. The impact resistance to MMOD will need to be provided by the robustness of the structural configuration such that the asset does not suffer loss of function or catastrophic failure. Finite element modelling (FEM) can be used to investigate the effects of MMOD impact on the overall structural behavior of the PA. The models are being used here to investigate the structural response to ‘missing’ truss members, and parametric studies are being performed to identify the worst-case scenario of an impact catastrophically damaging a truss element. These models will be used to determine which truss members are the most critical to the structural performance, and thus, which may require a higher degree of protection or robustness to ensure they can withstand an MMOD impact without causing catastrophic effects on the entire structure. Initial results have been generated indicating a reduction in the global frequency due to missing truss members as a result of MMOD impact.

in-space assembly (ISA)↗