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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

Predicted growth in world population will put unparalleled stress on the need for sustainable energy and global food production, as well as increase the likelihood of future pandemics. In this work, we identify high-resolution environmental zones in the context of a changing climate and predict longitudinal processes relevant to these challenges. We do this using exhaustive vector comparison methods that measure the climatic similarity between all locations on earth at high geospatial resolution relative to global-scale analyses. The results are captured as networks, in which edges between geolocations are defined if their historical climate similarities exceed a threshold. We apply Markov clustering and our novel Correlation of Correlations method to the resulting climatic networks, which provides unprecedented agglomerative and longitudinal views of climatic relationships across the globe. The methods performed here resulted in the fastest (9.37x10 18 operations/sec) and one of the largest (168.7x10 21 operations) scientific computations ever performed, with more than 100 quadrillion edges considered for a single climatic network. Our climatic analysis reveals areas of the world experiencing rapid environmental changes, which can have important implications for global carbon fluxes and zoonotic spillover events. Correlation and network analyses of this kind are widely applicable across computational and predictive biology domains, including systems biology, ecology, carbon cycles, biogeochemistry, and zoonosis research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of small marine energy deployments on oceanographic systems

The placement and operation of marine energy deployments in the ocean have the potential to change flow patterns, decrease wave heights, and/or remove energy from the oceanographic system. Changes in oceanographic systems resulting from harvesting marine energy, particularly tidal and wave energy, may be of concern. These changes include alterations in nearfield and farfield physical processes, as well as potential secondary environmental effects such as changes in sediment transport patterns, biological processes, or coastal erosion. Knowledge of changes in oceanographic systems associated with marine energy is primarily available from numerical modeling studies, informed by some laboratory tests and very few field measurements. A literature review was conducted using the Tethys knowledge base and other online sources, building on conclusions from the Ocean Energy Systems-Environmental State of the Science report. Potential changes in oceanographic systems that may be caused by marine energy differ between tidal and wave devices because of different extraction mechanisms and siting locations. Numerical models show that tidal extraction on the order of hundreds of megawatts or with significant channel blockage is required to create changes in oceanographic processes that exceed natural variability. Effects from wave energy extraction in arrays are localized and dependent on array spacing and proximity to the shore. Here the available evidence supports the conclusion that the risk of significant environmental effects from such changes could be retired (i.e., less investigation required for every project) for small deployments—those representative of the state of the industry in 2021. Determining changes in oceanographic systems to be low risk for small deployments can thereby streamline environmental consenting by reducing monitoring needs at this early stage in the industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes

Abstract Sahel rainfall is dynamically linked to the global Hadley cell and to the regional monsoon circulation. It is therefore susceptible to forcings from remote oceans and regional land alike. Warming of the oceans enhances the stability of the tropical atmosphere and weakens deep ascent in the Hadley circulation. Warming of the Sahara and of the nearby oceans changes the structure and position of the regional shallow circulation and allows more of the intense convective systems that determine seasonal rain accumulation. These processes can explain the observed interannual to multidecadal variability. Sea surface temperature anomalies were the dominant forcing of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s. In most recent decades, seasonal rainfall amounts have partially recovered, but rainy season characteristics have changed: rainfall is more intense and intermittent and wetting is concentrated in the late rainy season and away from the west coast. Similar subseasonal and subregional differences in rainfall trends characterize the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. While uncertainty in future projections remains, confidence in them is encouraged by the recognition that seasonal mean rainfall depends on large‐scale drivers of atmospheric circulations that are well resolved by current climate models. Nevertheless, observational and modeling efforts are needed to provide more refined projections of rainfall changes, expanding beyond total accumulation to metrics of intraseasonal characteristics and risk of extreme events, and coordination between climate scientists and stakeholders is needed to generate relevant information that is useful even under deep uncertainty. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transatlantic wood pellet trade demonstrates telecoupled benefits

European demand for renewable energy resources has led to rapidly increasing transatlantic exports of wood pellets from the southeastern United States (SE US) since 2009. Disagreements have arisen over the global greenhouse gas reductions associated with replacing coal with wood, and groups on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean have raised concerns that increasing biomass exports might negatively affect SE US forests and the ecosystem services they provide. We use the telecoupling framework to test assertions that the intended benefits of the wood pellet trade for Europe might be offset by negative consequences in the SE US. Through a review of current literature and available data sets, we characterize the observed and potential changes in the environmental, social, and economic components of the sending and receiving regions to assess the overall sustainability of this renewable energy system. We conclude that the observed transatlantic wood pellet trade is an example of a mutually beneficial telecoupled system with the potential to provide environmental and socioeconomic benefits in both the SE US and Europe despite some negative effects on the coal industry. We recommend continued monitoring of this telecoupled system to quantify the environmental, social, and economic interactions and effects in the sending, receiving, and spillover systems over time so that evidence-based policy decisions can be made with regard to the sustainability of this renewable energy pathway.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Influence of ontogenetic development, temperature, and pCO2 on otolith calcium carbonate polymorph composition in sturgeons

Changes to calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) biomineralization in aquatic organisms is among the many predicted effects of climate change. Because otolith (hearing/orientation structures in fish) CaCO 3 precipitation and polymorph composition are controlled by genetic and environmental factors, climate change may be predicted to affect the phenotypic plasticity of otoliths. We examined precipitation of otolith polymorphs (aragonite, vaterite, calcite) during early life history in two species of sturgeon, Lake Sturgeon, (Acipenser fulvescens) and White Sturgeon (A. transmontanus), using quantitative X-ray microdiffraction. Both species showed similar fluctuations in otolith polymorphs with a significant shift in the proportions of vaterite and aragonite in sagittal otoliths coinciding with the transition to fully exogenous feeding. We also examined the effect of the environment on otolith morphology and polymorph composition during early life history in Lake Sturgeon larvae reared in varying temperature (16/22 °C) and pCO 2 (1000/2500 µatm) environments for 5 months. Fish raised in elevated temperature had significantly increased otolith size and precipitation of large single calcite crystals. Interestingly, pCO 2 had no statistically significant effect on size or polymorph composition of otoliths despite blood pH exhibiting a mild alkalosis, which is contrary to what has been observed in several studies on marine fishes. These results suggest climate change may influence otolith polymorph composition during early life history in Lake Sturgeon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reliability and Decarbonization Resource Adequacy and Resilience

The Electric Power Transformation: 2023 MEGA Symposium has a focus on the transition of the energy generation industry to cleaner and climate resilient electric power that can remain cost-effective and reliable. Electric power energy issues abound as the world and the industry address environmental policy challenges—climate change, air quality, waste and water policy, environmental justice, and Environmental Social Governance —and various technology issues related to energy production and delivery, including the latest cutting-edge options. This presentation discusses reliability and decarbonization of the power sector with a focus on resource adequacy and resilience.

Balash, Peter↗

Sediment Cores from White Pond, South Carolina, contain a Platinum Anomaly, Pyrogenic Carbon Peak, and Coprophilous Spore Decline at 12.8 ka

A widespread platinum (Pt) anomaly was recently documented in Greenland ice and 11 North American sedimentary sequences at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) event (~12,800calyr BP), consistent with the YD Impact Hypothesis. We report high-resolution analyses of a 1-meter section of a lake core from White Pond, South Carolina, USA. After developing a Bayesian age-depth model that brackets the late Pleistocene through early Holocene, we analyzed and quantifed the following: (1) Pt and palladium (Pd) abundance, (2) geochemistry of 58 elements, (3) coprophilous spores, (4) sedimentary organic matter (OC and sedaDNA), (5) stable isotopes of C (δ13C) and N (δ15N), (6) soot, (7) aciniform carbon, (8) cryptotephra, (9) mercury (Hg), and (10) magnetic susceptibility. We identifed large Pt and Pt/Pd anomalies within a 2-cm section dated to the YD onset (12,785±58calyr BP). These anomalies precede a decline in coprophilous spores and correlate with an abrupt peak in soot and C/OC ratios, indicative of large-scale regional biomass burning. We also observed a relatively large excursion in δ15N values, indicating rapid climatic and environmental/hydrological changes at the YD onset. Our results are consistent with the YD Impact Hypothesis and impact-related environmental and ecological changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CARETS: An experimental regional information system using ERTS data

The U. S. Geological Survey CARETS (Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site)/ERTS investigation is testing the applicability of ERTS data as input to an environmental information system for a multi-state mid-Atlantic region surrounding the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. The information system framework encompasses a flow of information through several stages from sensor to user, and involving evaluation and feedback from several potential users. Basic assumptions of the CARETS project model are that there is a measurable environmental impact associated with land use and land use change as determined with remote sensor data, and that the ERTS derived land use data sets, when properly calibrated, may thus provide regional planners and administrators with a shortcut to an understanding of the environmental changes that are going on in their regions.

Alexander, R. H.↗

A method for phenomenological analysis of ecological data.

The experimental meaning of the phenomenological differential equations for a competing population is reviewed. It is concluded that it is virtually impossible to construct the differential equations precise enough for studying stability. We consider instead a method of phenomenological analysis which can be applied to a set of population curves. We suggest an ecological index calculated from the population curves, which indicates a group property of the entire system. As a function of time, the index is presumably insensitive to Volterra type fluctuations. A marked increase of the index's value however indicates a marked change of the environmental conditions. It is not easy to deduce the group property from the population curves alone, because a change in population is in general due to the superposition of external disturbances and Volterra fluctuations.

Huang, H.-W.↗

Effects of Land Use Change for Crops on Water and Carbon Budgets in the Midwest USA

Increasing demand for food and bioenergy has altered the global landscape dramatically in recent years. Land use and land cover change affects the environmental system in many ways through biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms. In this study, we evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change driven by recent crop expansion and conversion on the water budget, carbon exchange, and carbon storage in the Midwest USA. A dynamic global vegetation model was used to simulate and examine the impacts of landscape change in a historical case based on crop distribution data from the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Services. The simulation results indicate that recent crop expansion not only decreased soil carbon sequestration (60 Tg less of soil organic carbon) and net carbon flux into ecosystems (3.7 Tg·year−1 less of net biome productivity), but also lessened water consumption through evapotranspiration (1.04 × 1010 m3·year−1 less) over 12 states in the Midwest. More water yield at the land surface does not necessarily make more water available for vegetation. Crop residue removal might also exacerbate the soil carbon loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bibliometric analysis of global environmental assessment research in a 20-year period

Based on the samples of 113,468 publications on environmental assessment (EA) from the past 20 years, we used a bibliometric analysis to study the literature in terms of trends of growth, subject categories and journals, international collaboration, geographic distribution of publications, and scientific research issues. By applying thresholds to network centralities, a core group of countries can be distinguished as part of the international collaboration network. A frequently used keywords analysis found that the priority in assessment would gradually change from project environmental impact assessment (EIA) to strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Decision-theoretic approaches (i.e., environmental indicator selection, life cycle assessment, etc.), along with new technologies and methods (i.e., the geographic information system and modeling) have been widely applied in the EA research field over the past 20 years. Hot spots such as “biodiversity” and “climate change” have been emphasized in current EA research, a trend that will likely continue in the future. The h-index has been used to evaluate the research quality among countries all over the world, while the improvement of developing countries' EA systems is becoming a popular research topic. Our study reveals patterns in scientific outputs and academic collaborations and serves as an alternative and innovative way of revealing global research trends in the EA research field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biomimetic catalysts responsive to specific chemical signals

Part 1. Design of Biomimetic Catalysts Based on Amphiphilic Systems The overall objective of our research is to create biomimetic catalysts from amphiphilic molecules. More specifically, we aim to create supramolecular systems that can be used to control the microenvironment around a catalytic center in a biomimetic fashion and apply the learning to construct supramolecular catalysts with novel functions found in enzymatic catalysts. We have prepared synthetic molecules (i.e., foldamers) that could fold into helical structures with nanometer-sized internal hydrophilic cavities. Cavities of this size are typically observed only in the tertiary and quaternary structures of proteins but were formed in our foldamer prepared in just a few steps from the monomer. Similar to many proteins, our foldamers displayed cooperativity in the folding/unfolding equilibrium and followed a two-state conformational transition. In addition, their conformational change could be triggered by solvent polarity, pH, or presence of metal ions and certain organic molecules. We studied their environmentally dependent conformational changes in solutions, surfactant micelles, and lipid bilayer membranes. Unlike conventional rigid supramolecular host, a foldamer undergoes conformational change during guest binding. Our study in the molecular recognition of an oligocholate host yielded some extremely exciting results. Cooperativity between host conformation and host–guest interactions was found to “magnify” weak binding interactions. In other words, since binding affinity is determined by the overall change of free energy during the binding, guest-induced conformational change of the host, whether near or far from the binding site, affects the binding. This study has strong implications in catalysis because enzymes have been hypothesized to harvest similar intramolecular forces to strengthen their binding with the transition state of an enzyme-catalyzed reaction. The supramolecular and amphiphilic principles used in the foldamer catalysts were extended to a few other systems, particularly to interfacially cross-linked reverse micelles and micelles. These features enabled unusual catalytic features such as basic/nucleophilic catalysis under acidic conditions. We were able to create highly active metal nanoclusters catalysts whose local environment could be tuned by the organic framework. We were even able to create a “catalytic nanomachine” that grabs the substrate to the encapsulated Au clusters, which efficiently convert the substrate to the product that is rapidly ejected due to its different binding properties. Our research has important impacts on fundamental and applied energy-related sciences. On the fundamental level, it tests important biocatalytic principles on relatively simple synthetic systems and is expected to afford deeper understanding of biological catalysis. On the practical level, the research is anticipated to lead to “smart” catalysts and open up exiting applications in chemical analysis, reaction control, and materials synthesis. Part 2. Electrochemical Reduction of CO₂ The primary objective of our research involving the electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide is to apply a multidisciplinary approach toward developing a greater understanding of the problem of efficiently converting CO₂ to hydrocarbons through electrochemical routes. Our goal is to provide a better understanding of the principles that underlie the electrocatalytic reduction of CO₂ at electrode surfaces and the molecular pathways that lead to desired compounds. This understanding is essential for the design and development of new catalytic materials for the selective production of renewable feedstocks. The electrochemical reduction of CO₂ involves the formation of various reaction products and adsorbed intermediates whose distribution depends upon the nature of the electrode material and the electrochemical conditions, including applied potential, solvent, and electrolyte, used during reduction. Our efforts are focused on developing a detailed picture of how these various parameters impact the reaction pathway for CO₂ reduction and to tune this reaction to favor the formation of specific products by careful selection of electrode materials and reaction conditions. Our experimental plan includes a detailed examination of the electrode material as well as a quantitative evaluation of the reaction conditions using several in-situ analysis tools that give a direct measure of adsorbed and solution species that appear during CO₂ reduction. During the first year of funding for this aspect of the project, we have developed an on-line electrochemical measurement tool utilizing membrane-introduction mass spectrometry to detect reactions products directly during the electrochemical reduction of CO₂on various sputtered electrode materials. In addition, we have examined the role of a selection of different electrode compositions (including single component and binary electrodes) on product distributions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas

Abstract Background Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. Methods We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus , Culex nigripalpus , Culex pipiens , Culex quinquefasciatus , Culex restuans , Culex salinarius , and Culex tarsalis . Results We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA. Conclusions Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change. Graphical abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Real-Time Tracking of Carbon Dioxide Concentration Using an Optical Microsphere Resonator Sensor

Whispering gallery mode resonator sensors are nondisruptive optical sensors that can detect and monitor perturbations in a gaseous environment. Through its resonant properties of peak wavelength, amplitude, and quality factor (Q factor), changes in concentration can be quantified within seconds and monitored over days with great stability. In addition, the small footprint, low cost, and high sensitivity are ideal properties for a disposable sensor that can be utilized in extreme environments. Further, the large Q factor of the resonant cavity enables long interaction lengths and amplifies the effect of small changes in the background refractive index, which is detectable in picometer shifts of the resonance wavelength. However, this measurement is susceptible to changes in other environmental factors such as temperature, pressure, and humidity, which manifest on the picometer wavelength scale, reinforcing the need to decouple the variables. In this work, we compare the spectral response of different diameter resonators to carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and its mixtures, observing the spectral shifting and broadening of the cavity resonance near 1550 nm. In addition, the effect of environmental temperature on spectral shifting due to the thermo-optic effect is characterized and quantified. Lastly, the gas concentrations are changed in real time to showcase the tracking and recovery capabilities of the resonator sensor.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

20th Space Simulation Conference: The Changing Testing Paradigm

The Institute of Environmental Sciences' Twentieth Space Simulation Conference, "The Changing Testing Paradigm" provided participants with a forum to acquire and exchange information on the state-of-the-art in space simulation, test technology, atomic oxygen, program/system testing, dynamics testing, contamination, and materials. The papers presented at this conference and the resulting discussions carried out the conference theme "The Changing Testing Paradigm."

Stecher, Joseph L., III↗

The Power of Environmental Observatories for Advancing Multidisciplinary Research, Outreach, and Decision Support: The Case of the Minnesota River Basin

Observatory-scale data collection efforts allow unprecedented opportunities for integrative, multidisciplinary investigations in large, complex watersheds, which can affect management decisions and policy. Through the National Science Foundation-funded REACH (REsilience under Accelerated CHange) project, in collaboration with the Intensively Managed Landscapes-Critical Zone Observatory, we have collected a series of multidisciplinary data sets throughout the Minnesota River Basin in south-central Minnesota, USA, a 43,400-km 2 tributary to the Upper Mississippi River. Postglacial incision within the Minnesota River valley created an erosional landscape highly responsive to hydrologic change, allowing for transdisciplinary research into the complex cascade of environmental changes that occur due to hydrology and land use alterations from intensive agricultural management and climate change. Data sets collected include water chemistry and biogeochemical data, geochemical fingerprinting of major sediment sources, high-resolution monitoring of river bluff erosion, and repeat channel cross-sectional and bathymetry data following major floods. The data collection efforts led to development of a series of integrative reduced complexity models that provide deeper insight into how water, sediment, and nutrients route and transform through a large channel network and respond to change. These models represent the culmination of efforts to integrate interdisciplinary data sets and science to gain new insights into watershed-scale processes in order to advance management and decision making. Finally, the purpose of this paper is to present a synthesis of the data sets and models, disseminate them to the community for further research, and identify mechanisms used to expand the temporal and spatial extent of short-term observatory-scale data collection efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial metabolic dependency and its impacts on the soil carbon cycle (Final Technical Report, DE-SC0016364)

The terrestrial biosphere contains a large fraction of global carbon (C) and nearly 70% of the organic C in terrestrial systems is found in soils. Global changes in atmospheric CO 2 , temperature, precipitation, and ecosystem N inputs, will impact primary production and carbon inputs to soils, but it remains difficult to predict soil responses to these environmental conditions. Our ability to predict C-cycle responses to global change remains limited by unexplained variability within the terrestrial C-cycle. Our difficulty in predicting responses of the soil C-cycle to environmental change suggests a need for a greater understanding of the biotic mechanisms that govern soil C-transformations. Changes in microbial community structure and function have been proposed to impact soil processes, but mechanistic connections between microbial activity and C-cycle transformations remain poorly described. We assembled an interdisciplinary team to conduct cross-scale examination of microbial contributions to C-cycle dynamics and C-fate in soils. We investigated microbial contributions to soil C-transformations using a suite of complementary isotopic techniques including DNA-Stable Isotope Probing (DNA-SIP), metagenomic-SIP, metabolomic-SIP, proteomic-SIP, and microspatial analysis of soil organic C. These techniques were deployed in experiments that tested fundamental assumptions that underlie terrestrial C-cycle models. We characterized the functional characteristics of soil microorganisms responsible for major C-transformations in soil, evaluated the metabolic and ecological interactions that underlie soil C-cycle dynamics, and evaluated the degree to which these interactions impact rates of C mineralization and stabilization in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗