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Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union

The reduction of European Union's pipeline gas imports from Russia as a consequence of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the EU. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix, prices, and trade flows of different subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure. Moreover, there are also large changes in the volume and geographical distribution of global gas infrastructure capacity additions and stranded assets. Our results show that by significantly reducing demand for natural gas, the EU Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves resilience against a complete and persistent cut-off of Russian pipeline gas. However, further improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts, while bringing climate objectives closer in sight.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Decarbonization of the Chemical Industry Through Electrification: Barriers and Opportunities

The chemical industry is a major source of economic productivity and employment globally and among the top 3 industrial sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, along with steel and cement. As global demand for chemical products continues to grow, there is an urgency to develop and deploy sustainable chemical production pathways and to reconsider continued investment in current emission-intensive production technologies. This perspective describes the challenges and opportunities to decarbonize the chemical industry via electrification powered by low-carbon electricity supply, both in the near term and long term, and it discusses four technological pathways ranging from the more mature direct substitution of heat with electricity and use of hydrogen to technologically less mature, yet potentially more selective, approaches based on electrochemistry and plasma. Finally, we highlight the key elements of integrating an electrified industrial process with the power sector to leverage process flexibility to reduce energy costs of chemical production and provide valuable power grid support services. Unlocking such plant-to-grid coordination and the four electrification pathways has significant potential to facilitate rapid and deep decarbonization of the chemical industry sector.

chemical synthesis↗

Innovation in complementary energy technologies from renewable energy policies

Complementary renewable technologies support renewable energy use as they can help balance the intermittency of solar and wind generation. Previous research has shown that environmental policies directly targeting renewable energy can drive innovation in solar PV and wind technology. This study explores the impact of renewable policies on innovation in complementary renewable technology that assists with integration, including combustion with mitigation potential, efficient power transmission or distribution, and enabling technologies. We use negative binomial models and a panel of 25 OECD countries from 1997 to 2015 to evaluate these relationships. We are not able to find evidence that renewable policies incentivize innovation in complementary combustion or transmission and distribution technologies, and only limited evidence that demand-pull instruments are associated with increased innovation in smart grid technology. Technology-push policies, such as public research and development funds for renewable energy, have had limited impact on grid-supporting energy storage innovation. Our findings suggest that policymakers wishing to accelerate these complementary technologies need to go beyond policies targeting renewable energy in order to drive innovation in complementary fields.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models

Buildings contribute 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions; therefore, strategies that can substantially reduce emissions from the building stock are key components of broader efforts to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development goals. Models that represent the energy use of the building stock at scale under various scenarios of technology deployment have become essential tools for the development and assessment of such strategies. Within the past decade, the capabilities of building stock energy models have improved considerably, while model transferability and sharing has increased. Given these advancements, a new scheme for classifying building stock energy models is needed to facilitate communication of modeling approaches and the handling of important model dimensions. In this article, we present a new building stock energy model classification framework that leverages international modeling expertise from the participants of the International Energy Agency's Annex 70 on Building Energy Epidemiology. Drawing from existing classification studies, here we propose a multi-layer quadrant scheme that classifies modeling techniques by their design (top-down or bottom-up) and degree of transparency (black-box or white-box); hybrid techniques are also addressed. The quadrant scheme is unique from previous classification approaches in its non-hierarchical organization, coverage of and ability to incorporate emerging modeling techniques, and treatment of additional modeling dimensions. The new classification framework will be complemented by a reporting protocol and online registry of existing models as part of ongoing work in Annex 70 to increase the interpretability and utility of building stock energy models for energy policy making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Economy-wide evaluation of CO 2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States

Adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives, known as electrification, is an important economy-wide decarbonization strategy that also reduces criteria pollutant emissions and improves air quality. In this study, we evaluate CO 2 and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios by linking a detailed energy systems model and a full-form photochemical air quality model in the United States. We find that electrification can substantially lower CO 2 and improve air quality and that decarbonization policy can amplify these trends, which yield immediate and localized benefits. In particular, transport electrification can improve ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), though the magnitude of changes varies regionally. However, growing activity from non-energy-related PM 2.5 sources—such as fugitive dust and agricultural emissions—can offset electrification benefits, suggesting that additional measures beyond CO 2 policy and electrification are needed to meet air quality goals. We illustrate how commonly used marginal emissions approaches systematically underestimate reductions from electrification.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Customizable Metric to Provide a Comprehensive Picture of the Mobility Potential of a Location

Accessibility in a geo-spatial context refers to the ease of reaching a variety of opportunities from a given location. Accessibility theories (and resulting metrics) have traditionally focused on quantifying access to specific opportunities (such as jobs), or focused on specific modes (such as car, bike, etc.). Such approaches often fall short of providing a comprehensive picture of the true accessibility potential of a location as a combination of multiple modes to multiple types of destinations. Addressing this drawback, a novel metric labeled the ‘Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) Metric’ was developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to quantify the mobility potential of a location to connect people to goods, services, and employment using a variety of modes, while accounting for time, energy, and affordability. The MEP metric has been integrated with advance travel behavior models to compute the changes in mobility potential for various future scenarios, such as introduction of automated vehicles, and/or electric vehicles—but does so at the aggregate, or average-citizen level. The MEP in its initial iteration is not customized to the particular socio-economic contingents, or even to an individual whose modal availability or pattern of trip making may substantially differ from the average. Addressing this gap, this research effort extends the MEP framework from a static state to a more tailored and dynamic state, one in which an individual, or group can customize the metric for their unique characteristics, such as modes, activity patterns, and time-of-day preferences. The extended MEP metric framework can now be integrated to assess the customized mobility energy productivity of an individual.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Optimal strategies for a cost-effective and reliable 100% renewable electric grid

This paper explores cost-optimal pathways to 100% renewable power systems for the U.S. building stock. We show that long-duration misalignments of supply and demand, spanning from multi-day to seasonal timescales, present a dominant challenge that must be addressed to meet real-time 100% renewable targets. While long-duration misalignments can be addressed through energy storage, we show that alternative and readily available solutions that are more cost-effective should be considered first. Through a techno-economic analysis, we identify cost-optimal, region-dependent, supply-side, and demand-side strategies that reduce, and in some U.S. regions eliminate, the otherwise substantial capacities and associated costs of long-duration energy storage. Investigated supply-side strategies include optimal mixes of renewable portfolios and oversized generation capacities. Considered demand-side strategies include building load flexibility and building energy efficiency investments. Our results reveal that building energy efficiency measures can reduce long-duration storage requirements at minimum total investment costs. In addition, oversizing and diversifying renewable generation can play a critical role in reducing storage requirements, remaining cost effective even when accounting for curtailed generation. We identify regionally dependent storage cost targets and show that for emerging long-duration energy storage innovations to achieve broad adoption, their costs will need to compete with the decreasing cost of renewables. The findings of this research are particularly important given that most long-duration storage technologies are currently either uneconomical, geologically constrained, or still underdeveloped.

100% renewable↗

Global Energy System Transitions

Energy systems power the world’s economies. They are pivotal to providing sustained economic prosperity that provides the goods and services that humans desire. Climate change is intimately linked with energy systems, because CO2 from fossil fuel use is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas emitted to the atmosphere, and cumulative anthropogenic emissions determine Earth’s concentration of CO2. Limiting climate change therefore means that global energy systems must reduce net CO2 emissions to zero and stabilize emissions of other GHGs. We compare energy system pathways as they are currently evolving with alternatives that have the potential to limit climate change over the 21st century. The differences are profound. Here we also discuss some frontier research issues that can provide a better understanding of potential pathways and their implications for decisions makers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An Advanced Cooling Device for Concentrated Photovoltaic Systems

Concentrated photovoltaics (CPV) have the potential to significantly enhance the energy conversion utilization of solar panels and reduce solar generation costs, making them a crucial area of advancement in solar power generation technology. However, the concentration of sunlight can lead to overheating of solar panels, resulting in a notable reduction in both the efficiency of solar power generation and the lifespan of the panels. This challenge remains the predominant technical hurdle that hinders the application of concentrated photovoltaic power generation technology. In this study, we propose a new cooling method for concentrated photovoltaic power generation systems via an integrated approach of incorporating Phase-Change Thermal Storage (PCTS) and Thermoelectric Generator (TEG) technology. This new method not only enhances the overall system's electricity generation efficiency but also effectively resolves the technical challenge of concentrated photovoltaic panel overheating issues, ensuring the continuity of concentrated photovoltaic power generation and extending the lifespan of solar panels and their components. In order to make full use of the wasted heat generated by photovoltaic power generation and effectively improve the power generation efficiency of the system, this work developed a phase change heat storage device based on a phase change material. This device uses the temperature difference between day and night to recover wasted heat from photovoltaic power generation. Through integration with the thermoelectric power generation system, thermal energy can be converted into electrical energy. In addition, the Peltier effect of thermoelectric materials is used to construct a photovoltaic panel overheating protection system, which significantly improves the reliability and service life of the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Sustainability Engineering: Challenges, Technologies, and Applications

Sustainability Engineering: Challenges, Technologies, and Applications focuses on emerging topics within sustainability science and engineering, including the circular economy, advanced recycling technologies, decarbonization, renewable energy, and waste valorization. Readers will learn the trends driving today's sustainability research and innovation as well as the latest in sustainable process technologies. This book: addresses emerging sustainability development challenges, progress, and disruptive technologies; discusses biological sustainability, recycling technologies, and sustainable process design and manufacture; and features a comprehensive view from renowned experts who are leaders in their respective research areas. This work is aimed at an interdisciplinary audience of engineers and scientists working on solutions to advance the development and application of sustainable technologies, including - but not limited to - chemical and environmental engineers.

advanced recycling technologies↗

Model America - data and models of every U.S. building

The 5-year goal of the 'Model America' concept was to generate a model of every building in the United States. This data repository delivers on that goal. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite to process multiple types of data, extract building-specific descriptors, generate building energy models, and simulate them on High Performance Computing (HPC) resources. For more information, see AutoBEM-related publications (bit.ly/AutoBEM). There were 125,714,640 buildings detected in the United States and this dataset contains 122,930,327 (97.8%) buildings which resulted in a successful simulation. Future, annual updates have been proposed that may include additional buildings, data improvements, or other algorithmic enhancements. This dataset of 122.9 million buildings includes: Models (state_county.zip) - OpenStudio (v3.1.0) and EnergyPlus (v9.4) building energy models. Please note that the download requires the free Globus Connect Personal (https://www.globus.org/globus-connect-personal); Each model has approximately 3,000 building input descriptors that can be extracted. Please see the EnergyPlus(v9.4) 2,784-page Input/Output Reference Guide (https://energyplus.net/sites/all/modules/custom/nrel_custom/pdfs/pdfs_v9.4.0/InputOutputReference.pdf) for everything that can be retrieved or simulated from these models. These models were derived from the following metadata, which is not included in this dataset: 1. ID - unique building ID 2. County - county name 3. State - state name 4. CZ - ASHRAE Climate Zone designation 5. Clim_Zone - text label of climate zone 6. est_year - estimated year of construction 7. est_commercial - estimated building type (0=residential, 1=commercial) 8. Centroid - building center location in latitude/longitude (from Footprint2D) 9. Footprint2D - building polygon of 2D footprint (lat1/lon1_lat2/lon2_...) 10. Height - building height (meters) 11. Area2D - footprint area (ft2) 12. BuildingType - DOE prototype building designation (IECC=residential) as implemented by OpenStudio-standards 13. WWR_surfaces - percent of each facade (pair of points from Footprint2D) covered by fenestration/windows (average 14.5% for residential, 40% for commercial buildings) 14. NumFloors - number of floors (above-grade) 15. Area - estimate of total conditioned floor area (ft2) 16. Standard - building vintage. These models are made free and openly available in hopes of stimulating any simulation-informed use case. Data is provided as-is with no warranties, express or implied, regarding fitness for a particular purpose. We wish to thank our sponsors which include Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD), U.S. Dept. of Energy's (DOE) Building Technologies Office (BTO), Office of Electricity (OE), Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). This research used resources of the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported under Contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. Please cite as: New, Joshua R., Adams, Mark, Bass, Brett, Berres, Anne, and Clinton, Nicholas (2021). 'Model America - data and models of every U.S. building. [Data set].' Constellation, doi.ccs.ornl.gov/ui/doi/339, April 14, 2021

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Clause-by-Clause Summary of Requirements in IEEE Standard 1547-2018

The revised IEEE 1547 standard (IEEE Std 1547-2018) contains eleven chapters (clauses) and eight annexes that comprise 136 pages. Each clause specifies information or requirements that apply to certain aspects important to the interconnection of distributed energy resources to the electric power system. Implementation of the requirements needs a careful study of the underlying technical concept and also needs the appropriate information that may be required to calculate various settings and configurations. This document aims to provide an introductory text to assist users of IEEE Std 1547-2018 in identifying the following questions: what is the primary audience of the clause/subclause? What knowledge is required to understand the technical subject matter? What information is required to apply/implement the requirements specified? What level of fluency with the subject matter is required to apply/implement the requirements?

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

sCO 2 Brayton System Market Analysis

Supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycle systems (sCO 2 ) offer potential benefits over traditional steam plants. The changing economics of the electricity sector favors solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC). Ultimately, the ability of sCO 2 systems to compete depends on the economics and ability to offer additional benefits to the market, such as the ability for dry cooling and their compact size. Updated results show that the projected LCOE for Brayton systems in the 100 to 300 MWe size range are between ${$}$44.8 and ${$}$56.1/MWh (4.48 and 5.61 cents/kWh). This report presents screening tools for assessing the potential market size and concludes that while at these LCOE estimates sCO 2 systems can compete directly against NGCC, there are many hurdles to commercialization, including the need to demonstrate long-term operations at low-cost and ability to quickly ramp for integration with intermittent resources. Additional customer discovery is necessary to fully understand the ability of this technology to solve customer problems that other technologies cannot.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗