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Link Winds: A visual data analysis system and its application to the atmospheric ozone depletion problem

The Linked Windows Interactive Data System (LinkWinds) is a prototype visual data exploration system resulting from a NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) program of research into the application of graphical methods for rapidly accessing, displaying, and analyzing large multi variate multidisciplinary data sets. Running under UNIX it is an integrated multi-application executing environment using a data-linking paradigm to dynamically interconnect and control multiple windows containing a variety of displays and manipulators. This paradigm, resulting in a system similar to a graphical spreadsheet, is not only a powerful method for organizing large amounts of data for analysis, but leads to a highly intuitive, easy-to-learn user interface. It provides great flexibility in rapidly interacting with large masses of complex data to detect trends, correlations, and anomalies. The system, containing an expanding suite of non-domain-specific applications, provides for the ingestion of a variety of data base formats and hard -copy output of all displays. Remote networked workstations running LinkWinds may be interconnected, providing a multiuser science environment (MUSE) for collaborative data exploration by a distributed science team. The system is being developed in close collaboration with investigators in a variety of science disciplines using both archived and real-time data. It is currently being used to support the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) in orbit aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). This paper describes the application of LinkWinds to this data to rapidly detect features, such as the ozone hole configuration, and to analyze correlations between chemical constituents of the atmosphere.

Jacobson, Allan S.↗

Lag compensation of optical fibers or thermocouples to achieve waveform fidelity in dynamic gas pyrometry

Fidelity of waveform reproduction requires constant amplitude ratio and constant time lag of a temperature sensor's indication, at all frequencies of interest. However, heat-transfer type sensors usually cannot satisfy these requirements. Equations for the actual indication of a thermocouple and an optical-fiber pyrometer are given explicitly, in terms of sensor and flowing-gas properties. A practical, realistic design of each type of sensor behaves like a first-order system with amplitude-ratio attenuation inversely proportional to frequency when the frequency exceeds the corner frequency. Only at much higher frequencies does the amplitude-ratio attenuation for the optical fiber sensor become inversely proportional to the square root of the frequency. Design options for improving the frequency response are discussed. On-line electrical lag compensation, using a linear amplifier and a passive compensation network, can extend the corner frequency of the thermocouple 100-fold or more; a similar passive network can be used for the optical-fiber sensor. Design details for these networks are presented.

Warshawsky, I.↗

High-speed analog fiber optic links for satellite communication

Large-aperture phased array antennas operating at millimeter wave frequencies are designed for space-based communications and imaging. Array elements are comprised of active transmit/receive (T/R) modules which are linked to the central processing unit through a high-speed fiberoptic network. This paper demonstrates optical control of active modules for satellite communication at 24 GHz. An approach called T/R level data mixing, which utilizes fiberoptic transmission of a data signal to individual T/R modules to be upconverted by an optically synchronized local oscillator, is demonstrated at 24 GHz. A free-running HEMT oscillator, used as local oscillator at 24 GHz, is synchronized using indirect subharmonic optical injection locking over a locking range of 14 MHz. Results of data link performance over 500-1000 MHz is also reported in terms of gain-bandwidth, linearity and third-order intercept, sensitivity, and dynamic range.

Daryoush, A. S.↗

Combined Satellite and Surface-Based Estimation of the Intracloud/ Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Ratio Over the Continental United States

Four years of observations from the NASA Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Global Atmospherics National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) are combined to determine the geographic distribution of the intracloud/cloud to ground lightning ratio over the continental United States. The mean ratio over this region is 2.64-2.94, with a standard deviation of 1.1-1.3 and anomalies as low as 1.0 or less over the Rocky and Appalachian mountains and as high as 8-10 in the central-upper midwest. There is some indication that the ratio covaries with ground elevation, although the relationship is nonunique. Little evidence is found to support a latitudinal covariance, despite significant variation in the climatological mean tropopause pressure over the latitudes considered. The dynamic range of local variability is comparable to the range of values cited by previous studies for latitudinal variation from the deep tropics to midlatitudes. Local high anomalies of this ratio in the midwest are coincident with anomalies in the climatological percentage of positive CG occurrence, as well as in the occurrence of large positive CGs characteristic of MCS convective and trailing stratiform regions. This suggests that storm type, morphology and level of organization may dominate over environmental cofactors in the local determination of this ratio.

Boccippio, D. J.↗

Surveillance and Control of Malaria Transmission in Thailand using Remotely Sensed Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

These slides address the use of remote sensing in a public health application. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the of remote sensing to detect larval habitats to predict current and future endemicity and identify key factors that sustain or promote transmission of malaria in a targeted geographic area (Thailand). In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, which is part of the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health's decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity; 3) implementation of a dynamic transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. !> Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of the remotely sensed parameters. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Discrete event simulations are used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to the Greater Mekong Subregion. Our models have been applied to malaria in Indonesia, Korea, and other regions in the world with similar success.

Kiang, Richard K.↗

Remote Sensing of Hail from Space: Retrievals, Climatologies, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and subject to geographical or societal biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in the most globally consistent way. Passive-microwave algorithms leverage the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. These retrievals are used to construct global climatologies of severe hail. The Bang and Cecil (2019) retrievals has been applied to several different spaceborne sensors: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and used to construct [near] global climatologies of severe hail. This retrieval, and others, have been tested using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, to assess their effectiveness and regional variability. A successful retrieval and climatology are those that correspond tightly to radar reflectivity and give minimal appearance of regional biases, especially with latitude. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. There are ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D Bang↗

Spaceborne Remote Sensing of Hail: Retrievals, Climatologies, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and subject to geographical or societal biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in the most globally consistent way. Passive-microwave algorithms leverage the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. These retrievals are used to construct global climatologies of severe hail. The Bang and Cecil (2019) retrievals has been applied to several different spaceborne sensors: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and used to construct [near] global climatologies of severe hail. This retrieval, and others, have been tested using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, to assess their effectiveness and regional variability. A successful retrieval and climatology are those that correspond tightly to radar reflectivity and give minimal appearance of regional biases, especially with latitude. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. There are ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D Bang↗

Automatic labeling and characterization of objects using artificial neural networks

Existing NASA supported scientific data bases are usually developed, managed and populated in a tedious, error prone and self-limiting way in terms of what can be described in a relational Data Base Management System (DBMS). The next generation Earth remote sensing platforms, i.e., Earth Observation System, (EOS), will be capable of generating data at a rate of over 300 Mbs per second from a suite of instruments designed for different applications. What is needed is an innovative approach that creates object-oriented databases that segment, characterize, catalog and are manageable in a domain-specific context and whose contents are available interactively and in near-real-time to the user community. Described here is work in progress that utilizes an artificial neural net approach to characterize satellite imagery of undefined objects into high-level data objects. The characterized data is then dynamically allocated to an object-oriented data base where it can be reviewed and assessed by a user. The definition, development, and evolution of the overall data system model are steps in the creation of an application-driven knowledge-based scientific information system.

Campbell, William J.↗

Search for Far-Side Deep Moonquakes

A truly unexpected finding of the Apollo missions, 1969-1972, was a discovery of deep moonquakes. Analysis of the data from the seismic network, which operated for eight years from 1969 through 1977, identified more than 100 discrete source regions at depths approximately half way to the center of the moon. Their distribution, however, was not uniform, as all but one of the source regions found were on the front hemisphere of the moon. Thus, a question remains whether the observed one-sided distribution of deep moonquake sources represents their true distribution or instead occurs because all seismic stations are on the near side of the moon. If it is the former, it means that the interior of the moon is truly asymmetric, structurally and dynamically; if it is the latter, it means that we simply did not identify most moonquakes on the far side and that their identification will be a great help in investigating the deep interior of the moon, including existence of a possible metallic core.

Nakamura, Y.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, December 2010

Topics include: Coherent Frequency Reference System for the NASA Deep Space Network; Diamond Heat-Spreader for Submillimeter-Wave Frequency Multipliers; 180-GHz I-Q Second Harmonic Resistive Mixer MMIC; Ultra-Low-Noise W-Band MMIC Detector Modules; 338-GHz Semiconductor Amplifier Module; Power Amplifier Module with 734-mW Continuous Wave Output Power; Multiple Differential-Amplifier MMICs Embedded in Waveguides; Rapid Corner Detection Using FPGAs; Special Component Designs for Differential-Amplifier MMICs; Multi-Stage System for Automatic Target Recognition; Single-Receiver GPS Phase Bias Resolution; Ultra-Wideband Angle-of-Arrival Tracking Systems; Update on Waveguide-Embedded Differential MMIC Amplifiers; Automation Framework for Flight Dynamics Products Generation; Product Operations Status Summary Metrics; Mars Terrain Generation; Application-Controlled Parallel Asynchronous Input/Output Utility; Planetary Image Geometry Library; Propulsion Design With Freeform Fabrication (PDFF); Economical Fabrication of Thick-Section Ceramic Matrix Composites; Process for Making a Noble Metal on Tin Oxide Catalyst; Stacked Corrugated Horn Rings; Refinements in an Mg/MgH2/H2O-Based Hydrogen Generator; Continuous/Batch Mg/MgH2/H2O-Based Hydrogen Generator; Strain System for the Motion Base Shuttle Mission Simulator; Ko Displacement Theory for Structural Shape Predictions; Pyrotechnic Actuator for Retracting Tubes Between MSL Subsystems; Surface-Enhanced X-Ray Fluorescence; Infrared Sensor on Unmanned Aircraft Transmits Time-Critical Wildfire Data; and Slopes To Prevent Trapping of Bubbles in Microfluidic Channels.

Source record↗

Initial Operations Experience and Results from the Juno Gravity Experiment

Radio communications between the Juno spacecraft, in orbit around Jupiter, and the Earth-based observing stations of NASA’s Deep Space Network enable measurements of the Doppler shift induced on the radio signals by Juno’s motion in the Jovian environment. This measurement of the Doppler shift improves the knowledge of Jupiter’s gravitational field. As a radio science instrument, Juno’s gravity science instrument utilizes a ground component at the Deep Space Network’s DSS-25 antenna, equipped with simultaneous dual X- and Ka-band transmitters and receivers, and a spacecraft component, which includes X- and Ka-band transponders to relay the transmitted signal back to Earth. Originally planned to be in 14-day orbits around Jupiter, a risk identified in the propulsion system led to the decision to stay in the 53-day orbit period. Rapid turnaround of observation planning led to successful near-term perijove passes. Although maintaining a 53-day orbit period provides a scientific benefit to the gravity science investigation, the longer orbit period further increases the large dynamic range in Doppler shift and pointing angles induced by the geometry of each perijove. Between entering orbit at Jupiter on July 5, 2016 and September 2017, the Juno spacecraft has executed eight closest approach periods every 53 days where science data was collected. The first five perijove passes were conducted in different telecom configurations, each presenting unique challenges in data collection and processing. Perijoves PJ-01, PJ-02, PJ-03, and PJ-06 utilized the high-gain antenna and various configurations of the X- and Ka-bands. Perijoves PJ-04 and PJ-05 utilized the medium-gain antenna at X-band only while the spacecraft was off-Earth point. Additional perijoves are planned every 53-days, with an additional five by March 2018. Lessons learned from operating and collecting data at each perijove are documented and will be utilized in future perijoves. Analysis of the first two gravity science perijoves has improved the precision of Jupiter’s gravity field by a factor of five, providing crucial constraints on the interior structure of Jupiter.

Buccino, Dustin↗

Spaceborne Passive-Microwave Hail Detection: Global Climatologies, Validation, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and vulnerable to nonmeteorological biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in a globally uniform way. We have developed a hail detection algorithm that leverages the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. We use this retrieval to construct global passive-microwave climatologies of severe hail using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and are working to extend into the pre-TRMM era to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/(S)) data. Using coincident Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, we assessed this retrieval and several others in the literature for their effectiveness and regional variability. We find that this retrieval, which leverages a signature in the Minimum 19-GHz polarization corrected temperature (PCT) combined with the 37-GHz PCT depression normalized by tropopause height constrains the radar reflectivity most tightly, and gives the least appearance of regional biases compared to other passive-microwave approaches in the literature. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. We will discuss ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D. Bang↗

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

The International Space Station National Lab (ISSNL) was established through Congressional authority in 2005 and has been managed by a nonprofit called the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) since 2011 to support research, development, education, and commercial activities in low-Earth orbit (LEO). NASA leadership is considering next steps for microgravity and orbital activities in LEO in preparation for the retirement of the International Space Station (ISS) and transition to Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) in the 2030 timeframe. Specifically, our study team within the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy addressed the question: What are potential models for an ISS National Lab facilitating government-funded or subsidized activities on a commercial LEO platform after the transition of the ISS to one or more private platforms? To inform the trade space of potential models, we conducted over 40 discussions with stakeholders internal and external to NASA and reviewed over 35 documents related to LEO legislation, commercialization, models, and activities. Following the extensive literature review and discussions with diverse stakeholders, we defined and evaluated six models, in addition to the current ISSNL model. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios (dynamic, steady, and limited growth of the commercial LEO market and activities) and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria (ability to meet NASA’s needs, adaptability, opportunity for collaboration, market sustainability, and equity and accessibility). The six models in the future trade space were: • Government Research Broker: Customizable research efforts on transport vehicles and CLDs • Innovation Campus: Modern terrestrial campus with workforce focus • Anchor Tenant: Long-term, substantial agreement for leasing space on a single CLD • Fee for Service: Free market approach with NASA-sponsored grants and service/data buys • Matchmaker: Neutral third-party connecting users to platforms • Institute Network: Network of separate but related efforts to enable commercial scaling The Government Research Broker model performed best across the scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibited positive aspects, the two models performed most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. The six models presented in this study are representative of the potential trade space and are illustrative examples. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align to their priorities more closely by using combinations of the unique model features provided in our analysis. The optimal model is likely a combination of features from multiple models. Building upon this work to best position NASA and the diverse stakeholders of LEO activities for success post-ISS, further work will explore the near-term impact of preparing for the transition of the ISS to CLDs by identifying opportunities for modifying the current ISSNL-CASIS partnership. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the many reviewers and discussants, internal and external to NASA, that contributed to the work.

Erica Rodgers↗

Detecting Hail from Space: Algorithms, Climatologies, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and subject to geographical or societal biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in a globally uniform way. We have developed a hail detection algorithm that leverages the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. We use this retrieval to construct global climatologies of severe hail using several different spaceborne sensors: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and are working to extend into the late 1980’s using the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/(S)) data. Using coincident Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, we assessed this retrieval and several others in the literature for their effectiveness and regional variability. We developed a passive-microwave algorithm that corresponds tightly to radar reflectivity and gives the least appearance of regional biases compared to other passive-microwave approaches in the literature. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. We will discuss ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D Bang↗

Dynamics and spectroscopy of asymmetrically heated coronal loops

Numerical models of steady flows along coronal magnetic flux tubes of varying cross sectional areas are investigated. The flows are induced by altering the spatial symmetry of the heating. In two cases the flux tube geometry is symmetric about the top of the loop, but the spatial dependence of the heating rate is changed from a symmetric deposition which supports a stationary equilibrium to a time-independent asymmetric deposition. In a third case the volumetric heating rate is uniform, but one half of the loop is larger in volume than the other. The resulting velocity structure varies significantly with changes in the flux tube geometry. Calculations of the ionization balance and line emission for a number of ionization stages of oxygen suggest that heating induced flows may be responsible for the redshifts seen in spectral lines formed in the network at transition region temperatures.

Mariska, J. T.↗

Parallelized reliability estimation of reconfigurable computer networks

A parallelized system, ASSURE, for computing the reliability of embedded avionics flight control systems which are able to reconfigure themselves in the event of failure is described. ASSURE accepts a grammar that describes a reliability semi-Markov state-space. From this it creates a parallel program that simultaneously generates and analyzes the state-space, placing upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. ASSURE is implemented on a 32-node Intel iPSC/860, and has achieved high processor efficiencies on real problems. Through a combination of improved algorithms, exploitation of parallelism, and use of an advanced microprocessor architecture, ASSURE has reduced the execution time on substantial problems by a factor of one thousand over previous workstation implementations. Furthermore, ASSURE's parallel execution rate on the iPSC/860 is an order of magnitude faster than its serial execution rate on a Cray-2 supercomputer. While dynamic load balancing is necessary for ASSURE's good performance, it is needed only infrequently; the particular method of load balancing used does not substantially affect performance.

Nicol, David M.↗

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗

Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) performs orbit determination (OD) for the Aqua and Aura satellites. Both satellites are located in low Earth orbit (LEO), and are part of what is considered the A-Train satellite constellation. Both spacecraft are currently in the science phase of their respective missions. The FDF has recently been tasked with delivering definitive covariance for each satellite.The main source of orbit determination used for these missions is the Orbit Determination Toolkit developed by Analytical Graphics Inc. (AGI). This software uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the states of both spacecraft. The filter incorporates force modelling, ground station and space network measurements to determine spacecraft states. It also generates a covariance at each measurement. This covariance can be useful for evaluating the overall performance of the tracking data measurements and the filter itself. An accurate covariance is also useful for covariance propagation which is utilized in collision avoidance operations. It is also valuable when attempting to determine if the current orbital solution will meet mission requirements in the future.This paper examines the use of the Chi-square statistic as a means of evaluating filter performance. The Chi-square statistic is calculated to determine the realism of a covariance based on the prediction accuracy and the covariance values at a given point in time. Once calculated, it is the distribution of this statistic that provides insight on the accuracy of the covariance.For the EKF to correctly calculate the covariance, error models associated with tracking data measurements must be accurately tuned. Over estimating or under estimating these error values can have detrimental effects on the overall filter performance. The filter incorporates ground station measurements, which can be tuned based on the accuracy of the individual ground stations. It also includes measurements from the NASA space network (SN), which can be affected by the assumed accuracy of the TDRS satellite state at the time of the measurement.The force modelling in the EKF is also an important factor that affects the propagation accuracy and covariance sizing. The dominant force in the LEO orbit regime is the drag force caused by atmospheric drag. Accurate accounting of the drag force is especially important for the accuracy of the propagated state. The implementation of a box and wing model to improve drag estimation accuracy, and its overall effect on the covariance state is explored.The process of tuning the EKF for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types (Doppler and range), and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-square statistic, calculated based of the ODTK EKF solutions, are assessed versus accepted norms for the orbit regime.

Covariance Analysis↗