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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

SoK: What does it Mean to Benchmark Database Forensics?

Relational Database Management Systems are the backbone of modern enterprises and public-sector services, and are thus frequent targets of security incidents, insider threats, and thorough regulatory audits. Consequently, databases have become key sources of digital evidence, requiring investigators to reconstruct past activity from audit logs, transaction logs, and backups. Although benchmarking frameworks such as those developed by the Transaction Processing Performance Council (TPC) are widely used to evaluate database performance, they do not capture forensic requirements such as evidentiary completeness, tamper-evidence, chain of custody, or regulatory compliance under GDPR and CCPA. This survey examines the emerging domain of forensic database benchmarking. We gathered prior research on database forensics, secure logging, and tamper-evident data structures; we analyze modern forensic-ready features in commercial and open-source systems (SQL Server Ledger, Oracle Blockchain Tables, PostgreSQL pgAudit, Db2 Audit, Aurora Database Activity Streams, Oracle Real Application Security and IBM Guardium) and assess why existing benchmarks are insufficient. We propose forensic workloads, metrics, and methodologies that incorporate adversarial stressors, deleted-record recovery, and backup analysis. We also identify open research problems and call for a community-driven forensic benchmark suite. The result is an idea for evaluating not only database performance but also forensic soundness, bridging the gap between system engineering, compliance, and digital investigations.

Lenard, Ben↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating ultrafine aerosol turbulent fluxes during atmospheric new particle formation events

New particle formation (NPF) is an important source of atmospheric aerosols, yet quantitatively predicting its occurrence remains challenging, partly because ground-based measurements cannot capture NPF accurately if they occur in the upper atmosphere. While observations have confirmed the presence of new particles near the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), their origins and the direction of their vertical transport have remained ambiguous. Here, we propose and validate an analytical framework using airborne eddy-covariance (EC) and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to directly quantify the vertical flux of newly formed particles and determine its dominant vertical transportation direction. Analyzing data from a dedicated airborne campaign over the Southern Great Plains, we observed a persistent and strong downward particle flux during NPF events, with a mean value of 133.8 cm?3 m s?¹ downward flux in the entrainment zone, whereas fluxes on non-NPF days were negligible. Our spectral analysis further confirms that these directional fluxes can be reliably captured using standard 1 Hz aerosol instrumentation. These findings suggest that new particle formation, driven by the entrainment of air from the overlying residual/stable layer during PBL growth, is a significant and potentially understudied source of boundary layer aerosols. The framework presented here provides a methodology to correctly attribute NPF events to specific altitudes, thereby improving the mechanistic understanding required for accurate atmospheric models.

Zhang, Ruoyu↗
DOE OSTI2026

Instantaneous difference frequency locking observed during toroidicity-induced Alfvén eigenmode coupling in the DIII-D tokamak

In magnetic confinement fusion, toroidicity-induced Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs) are well-studied, weakly stable solutions of the linearized ideal magnetohydrodynamic equations. Driven unstable by suprathermal populations of energetic particles, TAE pose a key vulnerability to the confinement of high-energy alpha particles generated by fusion reactions. Hence, it is paramount to understand TAE dynamics if a working reactor is to be realized. In this work, we detect and characterize signatures of nonstationary nonlinear coupling between TAE using a novel, time-resolved bispectral analysis; results are supported by analytic signal of band-passed data. Crucially, a stationary phase relationship between two TAE and a nascent low frequency fluctuation is observed precisely when the triple product of magnetic fluctuation amplitudes is enhanced. Local mode number and frequency spectrum, gleaned from beam-emission spectroscopy, corroborates simultaneous satisfaction of nonlinear matching conditions, and provides a tool to identify theorized pathways of energy transfer, e.g. TAE parametric instability.

bispectral analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact-Driven Sampling Strategies for Hybrid Attack Graphs

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) have a large input space, with discrete and continuous elements across multiple layers. Hybrid Attack Graph (HAG) provide a flexible and efficient approach to generate attack sequences for a CPS. Analysis and testing of large-scale HAGs are prohibitively costly. We propose a dimension reduction via property-preserving multi-layer graph sampling algorithms. Existing property-preserving graph sampling approaches generate a representative subgraph of an original large-sized graph while preserving the key properties, such as node and edge distribution, clustering coefficients, and betweenness. On the other hand, we propose impact-driven sampling strategies to transform the input data to a lower-dimensional representation while retaining key properties of the data.

Subasi, Omer↗
NASA NTRS1987

Computer architecture for efficient algorithmic executions in real-time systems: New technology for avionics systems and advanced space vehicles

Improvements and advances in the development of computer architecture now provide innovative technology for the recasting of traditional sequential solutions into high-performance, low-cost, parallel system to increase system performance. Research conducted in development of specialized computer architecture for the algorithmic execution of an avionics system, guidance and control problem in real time is described. A comprehensive treatment of both the hardware and software structures of a customized computer which performs real-time computation of guidance commands with updated estimates of target motion and time-to-go is presented. An optimal, real-time allocation algorithm was developed which maps the algorithmic tasks onto the processing elements. This allocation is based on the critical path analysis. The final stage is the design and development of the hardware structures suitable for the efficient execution of the allocated task graph. The processing element is designed for rapid execution of the allocated tasks. Fault tolerance is a key feature of the overall architecture. Parallel numerical integration techniques, tasks definitions, and allocation algorithms are discussed. The parallel implementation is analytically verified and the experimental results are presented. The design of the data-driven computer architecture, customized for the execution of the particular algorithm, is discussed.

Carroll, Chester C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Preparing Earth Data Scientists for 'The Sexiest Job of the 21st Century'

What Exactly do Earth Data Scientists do, and What do They Need to Know, to do It? There is not one simple answer, but there are many complex answers. Data Science, and data analytics, are new and nebulas, and takes on different characteristics depending on: The subject matter being analyzed, the maturity of the research, and whether the employed subject specific analytics is descriptive, diagnostic, discoveritive, predictive, or prescriptive, in nature. In addition, in a, thus far, business driven paradigm shift, university curriculums teaching data analytics pertaining to Earth science have, as a whole, lagged behind, andor have varied in approach.This presentation attempts to breakdown and identify the many activities that Earth Data Scientists, as a profession, encounter, as well as provide case studies of specific Earth Data Scientist and data analytics efforts. I will also address the educational preparation, that best equips future Earth Data Scientists, needed to further Earth science heterogeneous data research and applications analysis. The goal of this presentation is to describe the actual need for Earth Data Scientists and the practical skills to perform Earth science data analytics, thus hoping to initiate discussion addressing a baseline set of needed expertise for educating future Earth Data Scientists.

data analytics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-intrusive reduced order modeling of natural convection in porous media using convolutional autoencoders: Comparison with linear subspace techniques

Natural convection in porous media is a highly nonlinear multiphysical problem relevant to many engineering applications (e.g., the process of CO 2 sequestration). Here, we extend and present a non-intrusive reduced order model of natural convection in porous media employing deep convolutional autoencoders for the compression and reconstruction and either radial basis function (RBF) interpolation or artificial neural networks (ANNs) for mapping parameters of partial differential equations (PDEs) on the corresponding nonlinear manifolds. To benchmark our approach, we also describe linear compression and reconstruction processes relying on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and ANNs. Further, we present comprehensive comparisons among different models through three benchmark problems. The reduced order models, linear and nonlinear approaches, are much faster than the finite element model, obtaining a maximum speed-up of 7 × 10 6 because our framework is not bound by the Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy condition; hence, it could deliver quantities of interest at any given time contrary to the finite element model. Our model’s accuracy still lies within a relative error of 7% in the worst-case scenario. We illustrate that, in specific settings, the nonlinear approach outperforms its linear counterpart and vice versa. We hypothesize that a visual comparison between principal component analysis (PCA) and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) could indicate which method will perform better prior to employing any specific compression strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2010

Whistler Waves Driven by Anisotropic Strahl Velocity Distributions: Cluster Observations

Observed properties of the strahl using high resolution 3D electron velocity distribution data obtained from the Cluster/PEACE experiment are used to investigate its linear stability. An automated method to isolate the strahl is used to allow its moments to be computed independent of the solar wind core+halo. Results show that the strahl can have a high temperature anisotropy (T(perpindicular)/T(parallell) approximately > 2). This anisotropy is shown to be an important free energy source for the excitation of high frequency whistler waves. The analysis suggests that the resultant whistler waves are strong enough to regulate the electron velocity distributions in the solar wind through pitch-angle scattering

Vinas, A.F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

MaNGA galaxy properties – II. A detailed comparison of observed and simulated spiral galaxy scaling relations

ABSTRACT We present a catalogue of dynamical properties for 2368 late-type galaxies from the MaNGA survey. The latter complements the catalogue of photometric properties for the same sample based on deep optical dark energy sky instrument legacy imaging survey (DESI) photometry processed with autoprof . Rotation curves (RCs), extracted by model-fitting H α velocity maps from the MaNGA Data Analysis Pipeline, extend out to 1.4 (1.9) Re for the primary (secondary) MaNGA samples, respectively. The RCs and ancillary MaNGA Pipe3D data products were used to construct various fundamental galaxy scaling relations that are also compared uniformly with similar relations from numerical investigation of a hundred astrophysical object (NIHAO) zoom-in simulations. Simulated NIHAO galaxies were found to broadly reproduce the observed MaNGA galaxy population for $\log (M_*/{\rm {\rm M}_{\odot })\, \gt\, 8.5}$. Some discrepancies remain, such as those pertaining to central stellar densities and the diversity of RCs due to strong feedback schemes. Also presented are spatially resolved scatters for the velocity-size-stellar mass (VRM*) structural relations using MaNGA and NIHAO samples. The scatter for these relations in the galaxian interiors is a consequence of the diversity of inner RC shapes, while scatter in the outskirts is dictated by the large range of stellar surface densities, which is itself driven by sporadic star formation. The detailed, spatially resolved scatter analysis highlights the complex interplay between local and global astrophysical processes and provides a strong constraint to numerical simulations.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

EPIsembleVis: A geo-visual analysis and comparison of the prediction ensembles of multiple COVID-19 models

In this work, we present EPIsembleVis, a web-based comparative visual analysis tool for evaluating the consistency of multiple COVID-19 prediction models. Our approach analyzes a collection of COVID-19 predictions from different epidemiological models as an ensemble and utilizes two metrics to quantify model performance. These metrics include (a) prediction uncertainty (represented as the dispersion of predictions in each ensemble) and (b) prediction error (calculated by comparing individual model predictions with the recorded data). Through an interactive visual interface, our approach provides a data-driven workflow for (a) selecting and constructing the COVID-19 model prediction ensemble based on the spatiotemporal overlap of available predictions of multiple epidemiological models, (b) quantifying the model performance using both the uncertainty of each model prediction ensemble, and the error of each ensemble member that represents individual model predictions, and (c) visualizing the spatiotemporal variability in the projection performance of individual models using a suite of novel ensemble visualization techniques, such as the data availability map, a spatiotemporal textured-tile calendar, multivariate rose chart, and time-series leaflet glyph. We demonstrate the capability of our ensemble visual interface through a case study that investigates the performance of weekly COVID-19 predictions, which are provided through the COVID-19 Forecast Hub UMass-Amherst Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence [47] for the United States and United States Territories. The EPIsembleVis tool is implemented using open-source web technologies and adaptive system design, rendering it interoperable with Elasticsearch and Kibana for automatically ingesting COVID-19 predictions from online repositories, and it is generalizable for analyzing worldwide projections from more epidemiological models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Street-level temperature estimation using graph neural networks: Performance, feature embedding and interpretability

Estimating street-level air temperature is a challenging task due to the highly heterogeneous urban surfaces, canyon-like street morphology, and the diverse physical processes in the built environment. Though pioneering studies have embarked on investigations via data-driven approaches, many questions remain to be answered. Here, in this study, we leveraged an innovative framework and redefined the street-level temperature estimation problem using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) with spatial embedding techniques. The results showed that GNN models are more capable and consistent of estimating street-level temperature among tested locations, benefiting from its unique strength in handling extensive data over unstructured graph topology. In addition, we conducted in-depth analysis of feature importance to enhance the model interpretability. Among the urban features analyzed in this study, the time-variant canopy density and meter-level land use data emerge as crucial factors. Our findings highlight GNN 's high potential in capturing the complex dynamics between urban elements and their impacts on microclimate, thus offering valuable insights for comprehensive urban data collection and urban climate modeling in general. Collectively, this study also contributes to urban planning and policy by providing avenues to enhance city resilience against climate change, thereby advancing the agenda for environmental stewardship and urban sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning continuous models for continuous physics

Abstract Dynamical systems that evolve continuously over time are ubiquitous throughout science and engineering. Machine learning (ML) provides data-driven approaches to model and predict the dynamics of such systems. A core issue with this approach is that ML models are typically trained on discrete data, using ML methodologies that are not aware of underlying continuity properties. This results in models that often do not capture any underlying continuous dynamics—either of the system of interest, or indeed of any related system. To address this challenge, we develop a convergence test based on numerical analysis theory. Our test verifies whether a model has learned a function that accurately approximates an underlying continuous dynamics. Models that fail this test fail to capture relevant dynamics, rendering them of limited utility for many scientific prediction tasks; while models that pass this test enable both better interpolation and better extrapolation in multiple ways. Our results illustrate how principled numerical analysis methods can be coupled with existing ML training/testing methodologies to validate models for science and engineering applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1994

Bio-optical and physical variability in the subarctic North Atlantic Ocean during the spring of 1989

A unique set of physical, bio-optical, and meteorological observations were made from a mooring located in the open ocean south of Iceland (59 deg 29.5 min N, 20 deg 49.8 min W) from April 13 to June 12 1989. The present measurements are apparently the first to resolve the rapid transition to springtime physical and biological conditions at such a high latitude site. Our data were collected with bio-optical and physical moored systems every few minutes. The abrupt onset of springtime stratification was observed with the mixed layer shoaling from approximately 550 m to approximately 50 m in approximately 5 days. During this period a major phytoplankton bloom occurred with a tenfold increase in near-surface chlorophyll concentration in less than 3 weeks. Our statistical analysis indicates that the velocity shear in the upper layer is driven primarily by local wind stress. Mesoscale variability is also apparent from these and concurrent airborne oceangraphic lidar observations. Our complementary modeling results suggest that the near-surface layer may be reasonably well described by a one-dimensional model and that the spring bloom was initiated during incipient near-surface restratification.

Dickey, T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Rocket Engine Oscillation Diagnostics

Rocket engine oscillating data can reveal many physical phenomena ranging from unsteady flow and acoustics to rotordynamics and structural dynamics. Because of this, engine diagnostics based on oscillation data should employ both signal analysis and physical modeling. This paper describes an approach to rocket engine oscillation diagnostics, types of problems encountered, and example problems solved. Determination of design guidelines and environments (or loads) from oscillating phenomena is required during initial stages of rocket engine design, while the additional tasks of health monitoring, incipient failure detection, and anomaly diagnostics occur during engine development and operation. Oscillations in rocket engines are typically related to flow driven acoustics, flow excited structures, or rotational forces. Additional sources of oscillatory energy are combustion and cavitation. Included in the example problems is a sampling of signal analysis tools employed in diagnostics. The rocket engine hardware includes combustion devices, valves, turbopumps, and ducts. Simple models of an oscillating fluid system or structure can be constructed to estimate pertinent dynamic parameters governing the unsteady behavior of engine systems or components. In the example problems it is shown that simple physical modeling when combined with signal analysis can be successfully employed to diagnose complex rocket engine oscillatory phenomena.

Nesman, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2018

Integration of Information Management System, Workflow and Computational Tools Enabling Multiscale Modeling Within an ICME Paradigm

With the increased emphasis on reducing the cost and time to market of new materials, the need for analytical tools that enable the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing - internal structure - property - performance envelope, along with the capturing and storing of the associated material and model information across its lifecycle, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. Fortunately, material information management systems and physics-based multiscale modeling methods have kept pace with the growing user demands. Herein, recent efforts to develop a set of Python functions that exchange information between NASA GRC's Integrated multiscale Micromechanics Analysis Code (ImMAC) software toolset and its Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), Granta MI® database schema is presented. The goal is to enable seamless coupling between both test data and simulation data, which is captured and tracked automatically within Granta MI®, with full model pedigree information. These tools, and this type of linkage, are foundational to realizing the full potential of ICME, in which materials processing, microstructure, properties, and performance are coupled to enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures.

multiscale modeling; Micromechanics; Computational↗
DOE OSTI2025

The 200 Gbps Challenge: Imagining HL-LHC analysis facilities

The IRIS-HEP software institute, as a contributor to the broader HEP Python ecosystem, is developing scalable analysis infrastructure and software tools to address the upcoming HL-LHC computing challenges with new approaches and paradigms, driven by our vision of what HL-LHC analysis will require. The institute uses a "Grand Challenge" format, constructing a series of increasingly large, complex, and realistic exercises to show the vision of HL-LHC analysis. Recently, the focus has been demonstrating the IRIS-HEP analysis infrastructure at scale and evaluating technology readiness for production. As a part of the Analysis Grand Challenge activities, the institute executed a "200 Gbps Challenge", aiming to show sustained data rates into the event processing of multiple analysis pipelines. The challenge integrated teams internal and external to the institute, including operations and facilities, analysis software tools, innovative data delivery and management services, and scalable analysis infrastructure. The challenge showcases the prototypes - including software, services, and facilities - built to process around 200 TB of data in both the CMS NanoAOD and ATLAS PHYSLITE data formats with test pipelines. The teams were able to sustain the 200 Gbps target across multiple pipelines. The pipelines focusing on event rate were able to process at over 30 MHz. These target rates are demanding; the activity revealed considerations for future testing at this scale and changes necessary for physicists to work at this scale in the future. The 200 Gbps Challenge has established a baseline on today's facilities, setting the stage for the next exercise at twice the scale.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies: Methods and Results from the Haynesville, Anadarko, and Permian Basins

Significantly reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector can decrease the rate of climate change over the next two decades, buying critical time for a global energy transition. However, emissions inventories that can be used by oil and gas operators and environmental regulators to identify optimal methane emission mitigation strategies are either based on conservative emission factor methods, or are inconsistent between studies due to differences in sampling strategies or survey technologies. We developed a new approach for methane emissions survey design that yields representative basinwide methane emissions inventories by surveying a subset of total assets in a given oil and gas basin. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions that can be reconciled with future studies. We further present results from deploying this strategy in two oil and gas producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma. Aerial surveys were performed in 2023 using the Insight M LeakSurveyor™ technology. Preliminary results from methane emissions detected by Insight M indicate that aerially detected emissions above roughly 30 kg(CH4)/hr by themselves contribute a fractional loss rate of 1.13% of gross gas production across oil and gas operations in the Haynesville Basin, with aerially detected emissions equivalent to 2.67% of gross gas production in the Woodford Shale. We supplement these aerial estimates with modeled emissions that are below the LeakSurveyor’s survey sensitivity using a recently published inventory-based model of methane emissions, which we update for our survey areas. We then combine our aerial detections with modeled emissions to yield methane emission distributions and inventories that incorporate the full range of potential methane emissions from the smallest to the largest. These results can be used to identify the most effective methane mitigation strategies for our study areas, and can be reconciled with future methane emissions surveys that use different technologies.

Sherwin, Evan (ORCID:0000000321804297)↗