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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Stem psychrometer and flux data from US-CdM

Cleaned midday and predawn water potential data from 14 stem psychrometers installed within the footprint of the US-CdM flux tower, from May-October 2021. These data were collected in order to link environmental drivers, vegetation responses to seasonal water stress, and ecosystem fluxes of carbon and water at a pinyon-juniper woodland in southeastern Utah.Data include a comma separated values file containing all water potential data used in the published paper. Data were first published in Kannenberg et al. 2023 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109269). Flux data are publicly available from the AmeriFlux portal (doi: 10.17190/AMF/1865477). This data file and the AmeriFlux data are all that is necessary to replicate the analyses in Kannenberg et al. 2023 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Test for Cosmological Parity Violation Using the 3D Distribution of Galaxies

Here we show how the galaxy four-point correlation function can test for cosmological parity violation. The detection of cosmological parity violation would reflect previously unknown forces present at the earliest moments of the Universe. Recent developments both in rapidly evaluating galaxy N-point correlation functions and in determining the corresponding covariance matrices make the search for parity violation in the four-point correlation function possible in current and upcoming surveys such as those undertaken by Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, the Euclid satellite, and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. We estimate the limits on cosmic parity violation that could be set with these data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mars approach navigation using Doppler and range measurements to surface beacons and orbiting spacecraft

Approximate analytical models are developed and used to construct an error covariance analysis for investigating the range of orbit determination accuracies which might be achieved for typical Mars approach trajectories. The sensitivity or orbit determination accuracy to beacon/orbiter position errors and to small spacecraft force modeling errors is also investigated. The results indicate that the orbit determination performance obtained from both Doppler and range data is a strong function of the inclination of the approach trajectory to the Martian equator, for surface beacons, and for orbiters, the inclination relative to the orbital plane. Large variations in performance were also observed for different approach velocity magnitudes; Doppler data in particular were found to perform poorly in determining the downtrack (along the direction of flight) component of spacecraft position. In addition, it was found that small spacecraft acceleration modeling errors can induce large errors in the Doppler-derived downtrack position estimate.

Thurman, Sam W.↗

Orbit determination support for Hiten's aerobraking in the Earth's atmosphere

Two passes of the ISAS (Japan's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science) Hiten spacecraft through the Earth's atmosphere, at perigee altitudes of 125 km and 120 km, during Mar. 1991 marked the first aerobraking technology demonstrations for an object in cis-lunar orbit traveling at near Earth escape velocity. Prediction and control of perigee altitude to better than 1 km was desired to assure spacecraft survival. Covariance analysis provided confidence that prediction accuracy better than 200 m for support of final trim maneuver design was achievable with NASA DSN (Deep Space Network) tracking support. ISAS used orbit determination results in their decisions to cancel final trim maneuvers. Post flight reconstructions, marking the first combined use of DSN and ISAS tracking data, yielded perigee altitude solutions which agree with the near real time mission operations support predictions to better than 50 m.

Efron, L.↗

Global coordinates with centimeter accuracy in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame using GPS

Using 21 days of GPS data from 21 globally distributed receivers operating during early 1991, a 7-parameter transformation between a GPS free-network solution and coordinates of 12 stations listed in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) is solved. Standard errors of GPS coordinates are derived by applying an orthogonal projection operator to the free-network covariance. The weighted rms difference between 33 transformed GPS and ITRF coordinates is 12 mm in the Northern Hemisphere. Best results are obtained by mapping ITRF coordinates to the epoch of this experiment assuming no vertical site motions. Fixing selected sites in the GPS solution to ITRF '90 does not improve the agreement. It is concluded that the use of fiducial constraints is unnecessary for global networks.

Blewitt, Geoffrey↗

Estimation of attitude sensor timetag biases

This paper presents an extended Kalman filter for estimating attitude sensor timing errors. Spacecraft attitude is determined by finding the mean rotation from a set of reference vectors in inertial space to the corresponding observed vectors in the body frame. Any timing errors in the observations can lead to attitude errors if either the spacecraft is rotating or the reference vectors themselves vary with time. The state vector here consists of the attitude quaternion, timetag biases, and, optionally, gyro drift rate biases. The filter models the timetags as random walk processes: their expectation values propagate as constants and white noise contributes to their covariance. Thus, this filter is applicable to cases where the true timing errors are constant or slowly varying. The observability of the state vector is studied first through an examination of the algebraic observability condition and then through several examples with simulated star tracker timing errors. The examples use both simulated and actual flight data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The flight data come from times when EUVE had a constant rotation rate, while the simulated data feature large angle attitude maneuvers. The tests include cases with timetag errors on one or two sensors, both constant and time-varying, and with and without gyro bias errors. Due to EUVE's sensor geometry, the observability of the state vector is severely limited when the spacecraft rotation rate is constant. In the absence of attitude maneuvers, the state elements are highly correlated, and the state estimate is unreliable. The estimates are particularly sensitive to filter mistuning in this case. The EUVE geometry, though, is a degenerate case having coplanar sensors and rotation vector. Observability is much improved and the filter performs well when the rate is either varying or noncoplanar with the sensors, as during a slew. Even with bad geometry and constant rates, if gyro biases are independently known, the timetag error for a single sensor can be accurately estimated as long as its boresight is not too close to the spacecraft rotation axis.

Sedlak, J.↗

An Evaluation of Recent Gravity Models wrt. Altimeter Satellite Missions

With the launch of CHAMP and GRACE, we have entered a new phase in the history of satellite geodesy. For the first time, geopotential models are now available based almost exclusively on satellite-satellite tracking either with GPS in the case of the CHAMP-based geopotential models, or co-orbital intersatellite ultra-precise ranging in the case of GRACE. Different groups have analyzed these data, and produced a series of geopotential models (e.g., EIGENlS, EIGEN2, GGM0lS, GGMOlC) that incorporate the new data. We will compare the performance of these "newer" geopotential models with the standard models now used for computations, (e.g., JGM-3, BGM-96, PGS7727, and GRIMS-C1) for TOPEX, JASON, Geosat-Follow-On (GFO), and Envisat using standard metrics such as SLR RMS of fit, altimeter crossovers, and orbit overlaps. Where covariances are available we can evaluate the predicted geographically correlated orbit error. These predicted results can be compared with the Earth-fixed differences between dynamic and reduced-dynamic orbits to test the predictive accuracy of the covariances, as well as to calibrate the error of the solutions.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Understanding the Accuracy Limitations of Quantifying Methane Emissions Using Other Test Method 33A

Researchers have utilized Other Test Method (OTM) 33A to quantify methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure. Historically, errors have been reported based on a population of measurements compared to known controlled releases of methane. These errors have been reported as 2σ errors of ±70%. However, little research has been performed on the minimum attainable uncertainty of any one measurement. We present two methods of uncertainty estimation. The first was the measurement uncertainty of the state-of-the-art equipment, which was determined to be ±3.8% of the estimate. This was determined from bootstrapped measurements compared to controlled releases. The second approach of uncertainty estimation was a modified Hollinger and Richardson (H&R) method which was developed for quantifying the uncertainty of eddy covariance measurements. Using a modified version of this method applied to OTM 33A measurements, it was determined that uncertainty of any given measurement was ±17%. Combining measurement uncertainty with that of stochasticity produced a total minimum uncertainty of 17.4%. Due to the current nature of stationary single-sensor measurements and the stochasticity of atmospheric data, such uncertainties will always be present. This is critical in understanding the transport of methane emissions and indirect measurements obtained from the natural gas industry.

Heltzel, Robert↗

Optimal filtering in the presence of unmodeled time correlated driving disturbances.

In many realistic data filtering problems, the cross correlation of the state estimation error and the state forcing function is unknown due to the poor knowledge of the time history of the forcing function. In this paper, the conservative and minimal approximation to the cross correlation terms is presented. It requires only the knowledge of the estimation error covariance and the forcing function covariance, with the choice of an associated free parameter left to the user. If the estimation error covariance and/or the forcing function covariance are bounded from above but not known exactly, the cross correlation approximation using those upper bounds remains conservative. This cross correlation approximation leads to a conservative approximation to the estimation error covariance matrix differential equation between measurement times. The free parameter is determined as the analytic solution to an associated optimal control problem. The procedure is expanded to include discrete linear measurement incorporation.

Fraser, D. C.↗

On the role of the seasonal cycle

The definition of the seasonal cycle as the projection of an atmospheric time series onto a suitably defined subset of orthogonal basis functions guarantees that any atmospheric covariance may be expressed as the sum of a seasonal cycle part and a transient part (where transient refers to departures from the seasonal cycle rather than the time mean). Results are presented for the seasonal cycle contribution to the zonally averaged fluxes of momentum and heat, and for the zonally averaged height variance, in data for: the winter season, the winter season with the Fourier basis set appropriate for the seven-year time series, and the seven-year mean. The Fourier basis set calculation indicates that the interannual variability of the momentum flux is dominated by the interactions between the seasonal cycle and the meteorologically low frequency flow.

Straus, D. M.↗

Preliminary performance analysis of an interplanetary navigation system using asteroid based beacons

A futuristic interplanetary navigation system using transmitters placed on selected asteroids is introduced. This network of space beacons is seen as a needed alternative to the overly burdened Deep Space Network. Covariance analyses on the potential performance of these space beacons located on a candidate constellation of eight real asteroids are initiated. Simplified analytic calculations are performed to determine limiting accuracies attainable with the network for geometric positioning. More sophisticated computer simulations are also performed to determine potential accuracies using long arcs of range and Doppler data from the beacons. The results from these computations show promise for this navigation system.

Jee, J. Rodney↗

Insight and Evidence Motivating the Simplification of Dual-Analysis Hybrid Systems into Single-Analysis Hybrid Systems

Many hybrid data assimilation systems currently used for NWP employ some form of dual-analysis system approach. Typically a hybrid variational analysis is responsible for creating initial conditions for high-resolution forecasts, and an ensemble analysis system is responsible for creating sample perturbations used to form the flow-dependent part of the background error covariance required in the hybrid analysis component. In many of these, the two analysis components employ different methodologies, e.g., variational and ensemble Kalman filter. In such cases, it is not uncommon to have observations treated rather differently between the two analyses components; recentering of the ensemble analysis around the hybrid analysis is used to compensated for such differences. Furthermore, in many cases, the hybrid variational high-resolution system implements some type of four-dimensional approach, whereas the underlying ensemble system relies on a three-dimensional approach, which again introduces discrepancies in the overall system. Connected to these is the expectation that one can reliably estimate observation impact on forecasts issued from hybrid analyses by using an ensemble approach based on the underlying ensemble strategy of dual-analysis systems. Just the realization that the ensemble analysis makes substantially different use of observations as compared to their hybrid counterpart should serve as enough evidence of the implausibility of such expectation. This presentation assembles numerous anecdotal evidence to illustrate the fact that hybrid dual-analysis systems must, at the very minimum, strive for consistent use of the observations in both analysis sub-components. Simpler than that, this work suggests that hybrid systems can reliably be constructed without the need to employ a dual-analysis approach. In practice, the idea of relying on a single analysis system is appealing from a cost-maintenance perspective. More generally, single-analysis systems avoid contradictions such as having to choose one sub-component to generate performance diagnostics to another, possibly not fully consistent, component.

Todling, Ricardo↗

Post-Combat-Injury Opioid Prescription and Alcohol Use Disorder in the Military

Previous studies have identified combat exposure and combat traumatic experience as problematic drinking risk factors. Increasing evidence suggests that opioid use increases the risk of alcohol use disorder. This study investigated the association between opioid prescription use after injury and (1) alcohol use disorder and (2) severity of alcohol use disorder among deployed military servicemembers. Deidentified health records data of 9,029 deployed servicemembers from a retrospective cohort study were analyzed. Data were randomly selected from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry and included servicemembers with combat injuries during deployment in Iraq or Afghanistan (2002–2016). Pharmacy records and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision diagnosis codes were used. Three groups were identified (no opioid prescription use, nonpersistent opioid prescription use, and persistent opioid prescription use) and were compared on the basis of alcohol use disorder risk using Cox proportional hazard models. Data analyses were performed in 2021. Of the 9,029 servicemembers with combat injury, 2,262 developed alcohol use disorder (1,322 developed severe alcohol use disorder). Compared with no opioid prescription use, increased alcohol use disorder risk was associated with persistent opioid prescription use, with a hazard ratio of 1.13 (95% CI=1.02, 1.26). After covariate adjustment, increased risk remained statistically significant (hazards ratio=1.24; 95% CI=1.10, 1.39). There was no significant difference in alcohol use disorder risk between no opioid prescription use and nonpersistent opioid prescription use. The risk of severe alcohol use disorder did not vary by opioid use among servicemembers with alcohol use disorder diagnosis. Furthermore, the findings of the study suggest that the incidence of alcohol use disorder was higher among injured servicemembers with persistent opioid prescription use than among those without opioid use. If replicated in prospective studies, the findings highlight the need for clinicians to consider the current and history of alcohol use of patients in initiating treatment involving opioids.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Analytic Gaussian covariance matrices for galaxy N-point correlation functions

Here, we derive analytic covariance matrices for the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of galaxies in the Gaussian limit. Our results are given for arbitrary N and projected onto the isotropic basis functions given by spherical harmonics and Wigner 3j symbols. A numerical implementation of the 4PCF covariance is compared to the sample covariance obtained from a set of lognormal simulations, Quijote dark matter halo catalogues, and MultiDark-Patchy galaxy mocks, with the latter including realistic survey geometry. The analytic formalism gives reasonable predictions for the covariances estimated from mock simulations with a periodic-box geometry. Furthermore, fitting for an effective volume and number density by maximizing a likelihood based on Kullback-Leibler divergence is shown to partially compensate for the effects of a nonuniform window function. Our result is recently shown to facilitate NPCF analysis on a realistic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Vectorization of linear discrete filtering algorithms

Linear filters, including the conventional Kalman filter and versions of square root filters devised by Potter and Carlson, are studied for potential application on streaming computers. The square root filters are known to maintain a positive definite covariance matrix in cases in which the Kalman filter diverges due to ill-conditioning of the matrix. Vectorization of the filters is discussed, and comparisons are made of the number of operations and storage locations required by each filter. The Carlson filter is shown to be the most efficient of the filters on the Control Data STAR-100 computer.

Schiess, J. R.↗

Dynamic Ensemble Prediction of Cognitive Performance in Space

Astronauts are exposed to a unique set of stressors in spaceflight. Microgravity, isolation, confinement, and environmental and operational hazards: all of these can impact sleep, vigilant attention, and alertness, which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we seek to understand the most important predictors of alertness over the course of a space mission, using self-reported, cognitive, and environmental data collected from 24 astronauts on 6-month missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Alertness was repeatedly and objectively assessed on the ISS with a brief 3-minute Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) that is highly sensitive to sleep deprivation. To relate PVT performance to time-varying and sparsely-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose a n ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects regression, random forest, and functional concurrent regression models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also discover that a participant’s past performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation exposure were among the most important variables associated with alertness. This method is broadly applicable to environmental studies where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series.

Danni Tu↗

A tale of two towers: comparing NEON and AmeriFlux data streams at Bartlett Experimental Forest

Long-term ecological data are essential for detecting impacts of climate change and other global change factors, and for making informed predictions about future change. However, long-term measurements are rarely replicated at the site level, which raises questions about their representativeness. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the agreement of parallel observations from AmeriFlux and NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) towers at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. The two towers are separated by a horizontal distance of 93 m. Here, we focused our analysis on standard meteorological variables; fluxes of CO 2 , sensible heat, and latent heat measured by eddy covariance; and phenology derived from PhenoCam imagery. Results suggest excellent agreement between AmeriFlux and NEON in meteorology and phenology, and good agreement in fluxes at the half-hourly scale. However, large disagreements in CO 2 and latent heat fluxes occurred at the annual scale, with implications especially for the forest carbon balance. The AmeriFlux tower measurements indicate a site that is close to carbon-neutral (-8 ± 65 g C m -2 y -1 , mean ± 1 SD), whereas the NEON tower measurements indicate a forest that is a carbon sink (-137 ± 10 g C m -2 y -1 ). Causes of this disagreement may include measurement height (26 m vs. 35 m), which resulted in different flux footprints being measured by the two towers, and differences in the flux measurement systems. Our results suggest the need for caution when attempting to merge long-term flux data from two different measurement platforms, and when using measurements from any one measurement platform to inform decision-making on issues related to carbon accounting or natural climate solutions.

Carbon cycle↗