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NASA NTRS2018

Investigating Extreme Events in the NASA GEOS Multiscale Modeling System

Advances in computing capabilities and scientific development have come together to evolve general circulation models into multi-scale Earth system modeling tools. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model is one such example of this evolution. The GEOS model is driven by the finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Surrounding FV3 is a scale-aware physics package and data assimilation capability permitting multi-scale application of GEOS for sub-seasonal to seasonal climate prediction, medium range weather prediction, and global mesoscale modeling at convection allowing resolutions. GEOS also includes a comprehensive chemistry package representing a range of capabilities from basic chemistry and interactve aerosols and gaseous species, to carbon emissions and uptake, and complex ozone photochemistry. In this study, we apply the GEOS model to study the fidelity of these processes with increasing horizontal resolution and scale-aware processes in GEOS on extreme events. The GEOS model is run for 40-days beginning in August 2016 at three uniform global resolutions of 13-km (c768), 6-km (c1536) and 3-km (c3072) with 72 vertical levels up to 0.01mb. The model physics use the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme to dynamically reduce the role of parameterized deep convection as resolved scale processes in the model take over at higher resolutions. We will include high-resolution global emissions and fluxes of aerosols and carbon downscaled from recent satellite observations. We will compare these simulations with reanalyses and observations, focusing on rainfall, clouds and radiative forcing at hourly to monthly timescales. We will closely examine the probability distribution of precipitation intensities and radiative properties of clouds on a daily time scale. In addition, we will focus on extreme events, in particular the diurnal cycle of convection over the US and the frequency and physical nature of organized convection and heavy rain events across the globe.

Putman, William↗

NASA NTRS2002

New Insights on Hydro-Climate Feedback Processes over the Tropical Ocean from TRMM

In this paper, we study hydro-climate feedback processes over the tropical oceans, by examining the relationships among large scale circulation and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager-Sea Surface Temperature (TMI-SST), and a range of TRMM rain products including rain rate, cloud liquid water, precipitable water, cloud types and areal coverage, and precipitation efficiency. Results show that for a warm event (1998), the 28C threshold of convective precipitation is quite well defined over the tropical oceans. However, for a cold event (1999), the SST threshold is less well defined, especially over the central and eastern Pacific cold tongue, where stratiform rain occurs at much lower than 28 C. Precipitation rates and cloud liquid water are found to be more closely related to the large scale vertical motion than to the underlying SST. While total columnar water vapor is more strongly dependent on SST. For a large domain, over the eastern Pacific, we find that the areal extent of the cloudy region tends to shrink as the SST increases. Examination of the relationship between cloud liquid water and rain rate suggests that the residence time of cloud liquid water tends to be shorter, associated with higher precipitation efficiency in a warmer climate. It is hypothesized that the reduction in cloudy area may be influenced both by the shift in large scale cloud patterns in response to changes in large scale forcings, and possible increase in the cloud liquid water conversion to rain water in a warmer environment. Results of numerical experiments with the Goddard cloud resolving model to test the hypothesis will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Effects of Cloud-Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes in the GEOS GCM

The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud-microphysics is investigated using the NASA GEOS GCM. Results show that a faster autoconversion - rate produces more warm rain and less clouds at all levels. Fewer clouds enhances longwave cooling and reduces shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces increased condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical heating differential destablizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain over the tropics. The feedback is maintained via a two-cell secondary circulation. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the melting/freezing, with rising motion in the warm rain region connected to descending motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the freezing/melting level, with longwave-induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. The tropical large scale circulation is found to be very sensitive to the radiative-dynamic effects induced by changes in autoconversion rate. Reduced cloud-radiation processes feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden and Julian Oscillations (MJO). Conversely,-a slower autconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJO's with more realistic westward propagating transients, resembling a supercloud cluster structure. Results suggests that warm rain and associated low and mid level clouds, i.e., cumulus congestus, may play a critical role in regulating the time-intervals of deep convections and hence the fundamental time scales of the MJO.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Lightning and Precipitation: Observational Analysis of LIS and PR

Lightning flash rate can identify areas of convective rainfall when the storms are dominated by ice-phase precipitation. Modeling and observational studies indicate that cloud electrification and microphysics are very closely related and it is of great interest to understand the relationship between lightning and cloud microphysical quantities. Analyzing data from the Lightning Image Sensor (LIS) and the Precipitation Radar (PR), we show a quantitative relationship between microphysical characteristics of thunderclouds and lightning flash rate. We have performed a complete analysis of all data available over the Mediterranean during the TRMM mission and show a range of reflective profiles as a function of lightning activity for both convective and stratiform regimes as well as seasonal variations. Due to the increasing global coverage of lightning detection networks, this kind of study can used to extend the knowledge about thunderstorms and discriminate between different regimes in regions where radar measurements are readilly available.

Adamo, C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Key scientific questions and the role of satellites

Some of the research opportunities that are available from geostationary satellite data, especially from MONEX during the Global Weather Experiment are described. In addition, the International Cloud Climatology Program is described and the use of satellite imagery in studying mesoscale convection complexes is discussed. Finally, information derived from satellite data on ocean winds is examined.

Bierly, E. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Remote sensing of air-sea interactions

A number of preliminary concepts for the measurement or inference of fluxes across the air-sea interface through remote sensing are proposed. All the methods are achievable from aircraft with state-of-the-art technology. Only one is now ready for space implementation. The focus is on cold outbreaks. Sensible (latent) heat flux is inferred from the difference between initial surface air temperature (vapor mixing ratio) and the downwind SST (and corresponding saturation mixing ratio). The downwind growth rate of the PBL as measured by lidar also provides estimates of surface heating and the cross-inversion entrainment velocity. The lidar also provides a measure of the depth of the inversion and its penetration by surface-forced convection; this permits estimates of the surface heat flux. Lidar and radiometric measurements of cloud top height and temperature provide means of deducing the temperature sounding downstream so that heating is computed with the aid of a known sounding upstream.

Atlas, D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Cloud streets during KonTur: A comparison of parallel/thermal instability modes with observations

Estimates of cloud street geometry produced by a model of the parallel/thermal instability modes of shallow convection are compared with observations obtained during the 1981 KonTur experiment. Good agreement between the modeled and observed orientation angles, wavelengths and Reynolds numbers are found when the streets are assumed to derive their energy from the average shear and the lowest order sine terms of a Fourier expansion of the mean wind profile (or equivalently from the lowest order cosine terms of the mean shear profile). The modes associated with the cosine terms of the wind profile (or the sine terms of the wind shear profile) do not agree well with the observations. These results suggest that the boundary layer rolls observed during KonTur might have developed owing to a combined parallel/thermal instability originating primarily from the cosine terms of the ambient roll parallel wind shear.

Shirer, H. N.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cloud streets during KonTur - A comparison of parallel/thermal instability modes with observations

Shirer, H. N.↗

NASA NTRS1991

MAMS: High resolution atmospheric moisture/surface properties

Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) data collected from a number of U2/ER2 aircraft flights were used to investigate atmospheric and surface (land) components of the hydrologic cycle. Algorithms were developed to retrieve surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters which describe the variability of atmospheric moisture, its role in cloud and storm development, and the influence of surface moisture and heat sources on convective activity. Techniques derived with MAMS data are being applied to existing satellite measurements to show their applicability to regional and large process studies and their impact on operational forecasting.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Rainfall Algorithm Over Brazil

An improved version of the Convective/Stratiform Technique (CST) and its application over Brazil are presented. Keeping the major components of traditional CST, we have modified the scheme for classing convective and stratiform rainfall and tested various schemes to eliminate non-raining cirrus clouds. The parameters of the technique are calibrated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-sensor observations, including TMI, PR and Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS). This technique takes advantage of the high temporal sampling rate of geosynchronous infrared channel and the better instantaneous rain observation of TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and PR. Moreover, sparse TMI rain estimates are used to dynamically calibrate the parameters of the technique to improve its performance. The technique is applied to make rainfall estimates on various time scales and to study rainfall statistics such as the distributions of rain intensity and storm duration over a four-month period beginning January 1999. The study period coincides with the TRMM/Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere experiment in Amazonia (LBA) ground validation experiment, and observations from the LBA radar are used to validate the technique. Results show the mean diurnal cycle of precipitation over the LBA area, and are compared to radar data from the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) radar. When the larger geographic region is considered, the analysis of the mean hourly estimates revealed the pronounced effects of rivers, topography and local circulations on the rainfall.

Negri, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Physical and Optical/Radiative Characteristics of Aerosol and Cloud Particles in Tropical Cirrus: Importance in Radiation Balance

Whether cirrus clouds heat or cool the Earth-atmosphere system depends on the relative importance of the cloud shortwave albedo effect and the cloud thermal greenhouse effect. Both are determined by the distribution of ice condensate with cloud particle size. The microphysics instrument package flown aboard the NASA DC-8 in TOGA/COARE included an ice crystal replicator, a 2D Greyscale Cloud Particle Probe and a Forward Scattering Spectrometer Aerosol Probe. In combination, the electro-optical instruments permitted particle size measurements between 0.5 micrometer and 2.6 millimeter diameter. Ice crystal replicas were used to validate signals from the electrooptical instruments. Both optical and scanning electron microscopy were utilized to analyze aerosol and ice particle replicas between 0.1 micrometer and several 100 micrometer diameter. In first approximation, the combined aerosol-cloud particle spectrum in several clouds followed a power law N alpha D(sup -2.5). Thus, large cloud particles carried most of the condensate mass, while small cloud and aerosol particles determined the surface area. The mechanism of formation of small particles is growth of (hygroscopic, possibly ocean-derived) aerosol particles along the Kohler curves. The concentration of small particles is higher and less variable in space and time, and their tropospheric residence time is longer, than those of large cloud particles because of lower sedimentation velocities. Small particles shift effective cloud particle radii to sizes much smaller than the mean diameter of the cloud particles. This causes an increase in shortwave reflectivity and IR emissivity, and a decrease in transmissivity. Occasionally, the cloud reflectivity increased with altitude (decreasing temperature) stronger than did cloud emissivity, yielding enhanced radiative cooling at higher altitudes. Thus, cirrus produced by deep convection in the tropics may be critical in controlling processes whereby energy from warm tropical oceans is injected to different levels in the atmosphere to subsequently influence not only tropical but mid-latitude climate.

Pueschel, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Regional-Scale Modeling at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Over the past decade, the Goddard Mesoscale Modeling and Dynamics Group has used a popular regional scale model, MM5, to study precipitation processes. Our group is making contributions to the MM5 by incorporating the following physical and numerical packages: improved Goddard cloud processes, a land processes model (Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange - PLACE), efficient but sophisticated radiative processes, conservation of hydrometeor mass (water budget), four-dimensional data assimilation for rainfall, and better computational methods for trace gas transport. At NASA Goddard, the MM5 has been used to study: (1) the impact of initial conditions, assimilation of satellite-derived rainfall, and cumulus parameterizations on rapidly intensifying oceanic cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons, (2) the dynamic and thermodynamic processes associated with the development of narrow cold frontal rainbands, (3) regional climate and water cycles, (4) the impact of vertical transport by clouds and lightning on trace gas distributiodproduction associated with South and North American mesoscale convective systems, (5) the development of a westerly wind burst (WWB) that occurred during the TOGA COARE and the diurnal variation of precipitation in the tropics, (6) a Florida sea breeze convective event and a Mid-US flood event using a sophisticated land surface model, (7) the influence of soil heterogeneity on land surface energy balance in the southwest GCIP region, (8) explicit simulations (with 1.33 to 4 km horizontal resolution) of hurricanes Bob (1991) and Bonnie (1998), (9) a heavy precipitation event over Taiwan, and (10) to make real time forecasts for a major NASA field program. In this paper, the modifications and simulated cases will be described and discussed.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Mineral Composition and Abundance of the Rocks and Soils at Gusev and Meridiani from the Mars Exploration Rover Mini-TES Instruments

The Miniature Thermal Emission Spectrometer (Mini-TES) has provided remote measurements of mineralogy, thermophysical properties, and atmospheric temperature profile and composition of the outcrops, rocks, spherules, and soils surrounding the Spirit and Opportunity Rovers. The mineralogy of volcanic rocks provides insights into the composition of the source regions and the nature of martian igneous processes. Carbonates, sulfates, evaporites, and oxides provide information on the role of water in the surface evolution. Oxides, such as crystalline hematite, provide insight into aqueous weathering processes, as would the occurrence of clay minerals and other weathering products. Diurnal temperature measurements can be used to determine particle size and search for the effects of sub-surface layering, which in turn provide clues to the origin of surficial materials through rock disintegration, aeolian transport, atmospheric fallout, or induration. In addition to studying the surface properties, Mini-TES spectra have also been used to determine the temperature profile in the lower boundary layer, providing evidence for convective activity, and have determined the seasonal trends in atmospheric temperature and dust and cloud opacity.

Christensen, P. R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Convective and Stratiform Precipitation Processes and their Relationship to Latent Heating

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of its formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the Tropics. Associated with this rainfall is a vast amount of heat, which is known as latent heat. It arises mainly due to the phase change of water vapor condensing into liquid droplets; three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere comes from tropical rainfall. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. An improved convective -stratiform heating (CSH) algorithm has been developed to obtain the 3D structure of cloud heating over the Tropics based on two sources of information: 1) rainfall information, namely its amount and the fraction due to light rain intensity, observed directly from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite and 2) synthetic cloud physics information obtained from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of cloud systems. The cloud simulations provide details on cloud processes, specifically latent heating, eddy heat flux convergence and radiative heating/cooling, that. are not directly observable by satellite. The new CSH algorithm-derived heating has a noticeably different heating structure over both ocean and land regions compared to the previous CSH algorithm. One of the major differences between new and old algorithms is that the level of maximum cloud heating occurs 1 to 1.5 km lower in the atmosphere in the new algorithm. This can effect the structure of the implied air currents associated with the general circulation of the atmosphere in the Tropics. The new CSH algorithm will be used provide retrieved heating data to other heating algorithms to supplement their performance.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2009

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

Albrecht, R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Formation of Large (Approximately 100 micrometers) Ice Crystals Near the Tropical Tropopause

Recent high-altitude aircraft measurements with in situ imaging instruments indicated the presence of relatively large (approx.100 microns length), thin (aspect ratios of approx.6:1 or larger) hexagonal plate ice crystals near the tropical tropopause in very low concentrations (<0.01/L). These crystals were not produced by deep convection or aggregation. We use simple growth-sedimentation calculations as well as detailed cloud simulations to evaluate the conditions required to grow the large crystals. Uncertainties in crystal aspect ratio leave a range of possibilities, which could be constrained by knowledge of the water vapor concentration in the air where the crystal growth occurred. Unfortunately, water vapor measurements made in the cloud formation region near the tropopause with different instruments ranged from <2 ppmv to approx.3.5 ppmv. The higher water vapor concentrations correspond to very large ice supersaturations (relative humidities with respect to ice of about 200%). If the aspect ratios of the hexagonal plate crystals are as small as the image analysis suggests (6:1, see companion paper (Lawson et al., 2008)) then growth of the large crystals before they sediment out of the supersaturated layer would only be possible if the water vapor concentration were on the high end of the range indicated by the different measurements (>3 ppmv). On the other hand, if the crystal aspect ratios are quite a bit larger (approx.10:1), then H2O concentrations toward the low end of the measurement range (approx.2-2.5 ppmv) would suffice to grow the large crystals. Gravity-wave driven temperature and vertical wind perturbations only slightly modify the H2O concentrations needed to grow the crystals. We find that it would not be possible to grow the large crystals with water concentrations less than 2 ppmv, even with assumptions of a very high aspect ratio of 15 and steady upward motion of 2 cm/s to loft the crystals in the tropopause region. These calculations would seem to imply that the measurements indicating water vapor concentrations less than 2ppmv are implausible, but we cannot rule out the possibility that higher humidity prevailed upstream of the aircraft measurements and the air was dehydrated by the cloud formation. Simulations of the cloud formation with a detailed model indicate that homogeneous freezing should generate ice concentrations larger than the observed concentrations (20/L), and even concentrations as low as 20/L should have depleted the vapor in excess of saturation and prevented growth of large crystals. It seems likely that the large crystals resulted from ice nucleation on effective heterogeneous nuclei at low ice supersaturations. Improvements in our understanding of detailed cloud microphysical processes require resolution of the water vapor measurement discrepancies in these very cold, dry regions of the atmosphere.

Jensen, E. J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) for the GOES-R Series Next Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Constellation

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2015 is a follow on to the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. The system will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. The system provides products including lightning, cloud properties, rainfall rate, volcanic ash, air quality, hurricane intensity, and fire/hot spot characterization. Advancements over current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution for the 16-channel Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), an optical transient detector will map total (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning flashes continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions, from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the higher level algorithms and applications using the GLM alone and decision aids incorporating information from the ABI, ground-based weather radar, and numerical models. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time total lightning mapping data are also being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) national centers and forecast offices via the GOES-R Proving Ground to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings and facilitate early on-orbit user readiness for this new capability.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Simulated and Observed Intense Convective Cores for a Midlatitude Continental and Tropical Maritime Environment

This study contrasts midlatitude continental and tropical maritime deep convective cores using polarimetric radar observables and retrievals from selected deep convection episodes during the MC3E and TWPICE field campaigns. The continental convective cores produce stronger radar reflectivities throughout the profiles, while maritime convective cores produce more positive differential reflectivity Z(dr) and larger specific differential phase K(dp) above the melting level. Hydrometeor identification retrievals revealed the presence of large fractions of rimed ice particles (snow aggregates) in the continental (maritime) convective cores, consistent with the Z(dr) and K(dp) observations. The regional cloud-resolving model simulations with bulk and size-resolved bin microphysics are conducted for the selected cases, and the simulation outputs are converted into polarimetric radar signals and retrievals identical to the observational composites. Both the bulk and the bin microphysics reproduce realistic land and ocean (L-O) contrasts in reflectivity, polarimetric variables of rain drops, and hydrometeor profiles, but there are still large uncertainties in describing Zdr and Kdp of ice crystals associated with the ice particle shapes/orientation assumptions. Sensitivity experiments are conducted by swapping background aerosols between the continental and maritime environments, revealing that background aerosols play a role in shaping the distinct L-O contrasts in radar reflectivity associated with raindrop sizes, in addition to the dominant role of background thermodynamics.

Toshihisa Matsui↗