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NASA NTRS1986

A comparative study of prebiotic and present day translational models

It is generally recognized that the understanding of the molecular basis of primitive translation is a fundamental step in developing a theory of the origin of life. However, even in modern molecular biology, the mechanism for the decoding of messenger RNA triplet codons into an amino acid sequence of a protein on the ribosome is understood incompletely. Most of the proposed models for prebiotic translation lack, not only experimental support, but also a careful theoretical scrutiny of their compatibility with well understood stereochemical and energetic principles of nucleic acid structure, molecular recognition principles, and the chemistry of peptide bond formation. Present studies are concerned with comparative structural modelling and mechanistic simulation of the decoding apparatus ranging from those proposed for prebiotic conditions to the ones involved in modern biology. Any primitive decoding machinery based on nucleic acids and proteins, and most likely the modern day system, has to satisfy certain geometrical constraints. The charged amino acyl and the peptidyl termini of successive adaptors have to be adjacent in space in order to satisfy the stereochemical requirements for amide bond formation. Simultaneously, the same adaptors have to recognize successive codons on the messenger. This translational complex has to be realized by components that obey nucleic acid conformational principles, stabilities, and specificities. This generalized condition greatly restricts the number of acceptable adaptor structures.

Rein, R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Its a Wind, Its a Wave, Its Two Phenomena in One: Jerry Schubert, Superrotation, and the UV Markings on Venus

In the early 1970's, ground-based astronomers had already discovered that Ultraviolet (UV) cloud markings on Venus reappeared every 4 days. When radar evidence later revealed a 243-day rotation period for the solid planet, planetary scientists were faced with a quandary: Could the Venus atmosphere really move 60 times as fast as the planet below, or were the apparent movements of the UV features just an illusion caused by propagating waves? The former explanation seemed unlikely - a planet that hardly rotates should generate only a very sluggish circulation. The historical impact of Jerry Schubert's moving flame theory was twofold: It was the forerunner of current thermal tide explanations of the cloud-level superrotation, but it was also the first plausible mechanism for explaining a seemingly inconsistent set of observations. In 1974, Mariner 10 acquired UV images of the Venus clouds at unprecedented levels of detail. Although few have noted it, this began the shift of planetary atmospheric research primarily from the domain of astronomy to that of meteorology. Jerry was among the first scientists to apply terrestrial meteorology to the analysis of planetary data. At that time a young UCLA graduate student with plans to do research on mantle convection, but having flunked the solid earth geophysics section of his departmental comprehensive exam, was gently invited by Jerry to switch to atmospheric science. Jerry suggested that the Venus UV features could be revealing both superrotating winds and planetary-scale waves at the same time, and that we could distinguish the two by looking at motions on different spatial scales. This was my first science research lesson - the complexity of real geophysical systems. Over the next couple of years I was inculcated with Jerry's philosophy of a comprehensive, rigorous approach to research, which manifested itself as a scouring of the literature and the UCLA meteorology faculty to learn about every possible type of planetary-scale wave. The resulting identification of large-scale UV features on Venus as the product of Kelvin and Rossby-type wave motions was validated by extensive Pioneer Venus observations a decade later and remains one of the best examples of the use of terrestrial knowledge to understand other planets.

DelGenio, Anthony↗
NASA NTRS2008

Sensor Selection and Data Validation for Reliable Integrated System Health Management

For new access to space systems with challenging mission requirements, effective implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) must be available early in the program to support the design of systems that are safe, reliable, highly autonomous. Early ISHM availability is also needed to promote design for affordable operations; increased knowledge of functional health provided by ISHM supports construction of more efficient operations infrastructure. Lack of early ISHM inclusion in the system design process could result in retrofitting health management systems to augment and expand operational and safety requirements; thereby increasing program cost and risk due to increased instrumentation and computational complexity. Having the right sensors generating the required data to perform condition assessment, such as fault detection and isolation, with a high degree of confidence is critical to reliable operation of ISHM. Also, the data being generated by the sensors needs to be qualified to ensure that the assessments made by the ISHM is not based on faulty data. NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing technologies for sensor selection and data validation as part of the FDDR (Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Response) element of the Upper Stage project of the Ares 1 launch vehicle development. This presentation will provide an overview of the GRC approach to sensor selection and data quality validation and will present recent results from applications that are representative of the complexity of propulsion systems for access to space vehicles. A brief overview of the sensor selection and data quality validation approaches is provided below. The NASA GRC developed Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) is a model-based procedure for systematically and quantitatively selecting an optimal sensor suite to provide overall health assessment of a host system. S4 can be logically partitioned into three major subdivisions: the knowledge base, the down-select iteration, and the final selection analysis. The knowledge base required for productive use of S4 consists of system design information and heritage experience together with a focus on components with health implications. The sensor suite down-selection is an iterative process for identifying a group of sensors that provide good fault detection and isolation for targeted fault scenarios. In the final selection analysis, a statistical evaluation algorithm provides the final robustness test for each down-selected sensor suite. NASA GRC has developed an approach to sensor data qualification that applies empirical relationships, threshold detection techniques, and Bayesian belief theory to a network of sensors related by physics (i.e., analytical redundancy) in order to identify the failure of a given sensor within the network. This data quality validation approach extends the state-of-the-art, from red-lines and reasonableness checks that flag a sensor after it fails, to include analytical redundancy-based methods that can identify a sensor in the process of failing. The focus of this effort is on understanding the proper application of analytical redundancy-based data qualification methods for onboard use in monitoring Upper Stage sensors.

Garg, Sanjay↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Airspace Concepts Evaluation System Architecture and System Plant

The Airspace Concepts Evaluation System is a simulation of the National Airspace System. It includes models of flights, airports, airspaces, air traffic controls, traffic flow managements, and airline operation centers operating throughout the United States. It is used to predict system delays in response to future capacity and demand scenarios and perform benefits assessments of current and future airspace technologies and operational concepts. Facilitation of these studies requires that the simulation architecture supports plug and play of different air traffic control, traffic flow management, and airline operation center models and multi-fidelity modeling of flights, airports, and airspaces. The simulation is divided into two parts that are named, borrowing from classical control theory terminology, control and plant. The control consists of air traffic control, traffic flow management, and airline operation center models, and the plant consists of flight, airport, and airspace models. The plant can run open loop, in the absence of the control. However, undesired affects, such as conflicts and over congestions in the airspaces and airports, can occur. Different controls are applied, "plug and played", to the plant. A particular control is evaluated by analyzing how well it managed conflicts and congestions. Furthermore, the terminal area plants consist of models of airports and terminal airspaces. Each model consists of a set of nodes and links which are connected by the user to form a network. Nodes model runways, fixes, taxi intersections, gates, and/or other points of interest, and links model taxiways, departure paths, and arrival paths. Metering, flow distribution, and sequencing functions can be applied at nodes. Different fidelity model of how a flight transits are can be used by links. The fidelity of the model can be adjusted by the user by either changing the complexity of the node/link network-or the way that the link models how the flights transit from one node to the other.

Windhorst, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1995

Development of a two-equation turbulence model for hypersonic flows: Evaluation of a low Reynolds number correction to the Kappa - epsilon two equation compressible turbulence model - Volume 1

The objective of the current research is the development of an improved k-epsilon two-equation compressible turbulence model for turbulent boundary layer flows experiencing strong viscous-inviscid interactions. The development of an improved model is important in the design of hypersonic vehicles such as the National Aerospace Plane (NASP) and the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). Improvements have been made to the low Reynolds number functions in the eddy viscosity and dissipation of solenoidal dissipation of the k-epsilon turbulence mode. These corrections offer easily applicable modifications that may be utilized for more complex geometries. The low Reynolds number corrections are functions of the turbulent Reynolds number and are therefore independent of the coordinate system. The proposed model offers advantages over some current models which are based upon the physical distance from the wall, that modify the constants of the standard model, or that make more corrections than are necessary to the governing equations. The code has been developed to solve the Favre averaged, boundary layer equations for mass, momentum, energy, turbulence kinetic energy, and dissipation of solenoidal dissipation using Keller's box scheme and the Newton spatial marching method. The code has been validated by removing the turbulent terms and comparing the solution with the Blasius solution, and by comparing the turbulent solution with an existing k-epsilon model code using wall function boundary conditions. Excellent agreement is seen between the computed solution and the Blasius solution, and between the two codes. The model has been tested for both subsonic and supersonic flat-plate turbulent boundary layer flow by comparing the computed skin friction with the Van Driest II theory and the experimental data of Weighardt; by comparing the transformed velocity profile with the data of Weighardt, and the Law of the Wall and the Law of the Wake; and by comparing the computed results of an adverse pressure gradient with the experimental data of Fernando and Smits. Good agreement is obtained with the experimental correlations for all flow conditions.

Knight, Doyle D.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Intelligent System Development Using a Rough Sets Methodology

The purpose of this research was to examine the potential of the rough sets technique for developing intelligent models of complex systems from limited information. Rough sets a simple but promising technology to extract easily understood rules from data. The rough set methodology has been shown to perform well when used with a large set of exemplars, but its performance with sparse data sets is less certain. The difficulty is that rules will be developed based on just a few examples, each of which might have a large amount of noise associated with them. The question then becomes, what is the probability of a useful rule being developed from such limited information? One nice feature of rough sets is that in unusual situations, the technique can give an answer of 'I don't know'. That is, if a case arises that is different from the cases the rough set rules were developed on, the methodology can recognize this and alert human operators of it. It can also be trained to do this when the desired action is unknown because conflicting examples apply to the same set of inputs. This summer's project was to look at combining rough set theory with statistical theory to develop confidence limits in rules developed by rough sets. Often it is important not to make a certain type of mistake (e.g., false positives or false negatives), so the rules must be biased toward preventing a catastrophic error, rather than giving the most likely course of action. A method to determine the best course of action in the light of such constraints was examined. The resulting technique was tested with files containing electrical power line 'signatures' from the space shuttle and with decompression sickness data.

Anderson, Gray T.↗
NASA NTRS1996

An Open Computing Infrastructure that Facilitates Integrated Product and Process Development from a Decision-Based Perspective

Computer applications for design have evolved rapidly over the past several decades, and significant payoffs are being achieved by organizations through reductions in design cycle times. These applications are overwhelmed by the requirements imposed during complex, open engineering systems design. Organizations are faced with a number of different methodologies, numerous legacy disciplinary tools, and a very large amount of data. Yet they are also faced with few interdisciplinary tools for design collaboration or methods for achieving the revolutionary product designs required to maintain a competitive advantage in the future. These organizations are looking for a software infrastructure that integrates current corporate design practices with newer simulation and solution techniques. Such an infrastructure must be robust to changes in both corporate needs and enabling technologies. In addition, this infrastructure must be user-friendly, modular and scalable. This need is the motivation for the research described in this dissertation. The research is focused on the development of an open computing infrastructure that facilitates product and process design. In addition, this research explicitly deals with human interactions during design through a model that focuses on the role of a designer as that of decision-maker. The research perspective here is taken from that of design as a discipline with a focus on Decision-Based Design, Theory of Languages, Information Science, and Integration Technology. Given this background, a Model of IPPD is developed and implemented along the lines of a traditional experimental procedure: with the steps of establishing context, formalizing a theory, building an apparatus, conducting an experiment, reviewing results, and providing recommendations. Based on this Model, Design Processes and Specification can be explored in a structured and implementable architecture. An architecture for exploring design called DREAMS (Developing Robust Engineering Analysis Models and Specifications) has been developed which supports the activities of both meta-design and actual design execution. This is accomplished through a systematic process which is comprised of the stages of Formulation, Translation, and Evaluation. During this process, elements from a Design Specification are integrated into Design Processes. In addition, a software infrastructure was developed and is called IMAGE (Intelligent Multidisciplinary Aircraft Generation Environment). This represents a virtual apparatus in the Design Experiment conducted in this research. IMAGE is an innovative architecture because it explicitly supports design-related activities. This is accomplished through a GUI driven and Agent-based implementation of DREAMS. A HSCT design has been adopted from the Framework for Interdisciplinary Design Optimization (FIDO) and is implemented in IMAGE. This problem shows how Design Processes and Specification interact in a design system. In addition, the problem utilizes two different solution models concurrently: optimal and satisfying. The satisfying model allows for more design flexibility and allows a designer to maintain design freedom. As a result of following this experimental procedure, this infrastructure is an open system that it is robust to changes in both corporate needs and computer technologies. The development of this infrastructure leads to a number of significant intellectual contributions: 1) A new approach to implementing IPPD with the aid of a computer; 2) A formal Design Experiment; 3) A combined Process and Specification architecture that is language-based; 4) An infrastructure for exploring design; 5) An integration strategy for implementing computer resources; and 6) A seamless modeling language. The need for these contributions is emphasized by the demand by industry and government agencies for the development of these technologies.

Hale, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2 - T i e Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from [Koller & Lerner, 20001 to model fault detection in a watertank system. In [Koller & Lerner, 20001 a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for inference. We extend the experiment and perform approximate inference using The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Furthermore, we combine these techniques in a 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation framework and apply it to the watertank system. We show that UKF and UKF in a PF framework outperfom the generic PF, EKF and EKF in a PF framework with respect to accuracy and robustness in terms of estimation RMSE. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. We also show that the choice of network structure is very important for the performance of the generic PF and the EKF algorithms, but not for the UKF algorithms. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the water[ank simulation. Theory and implementation is based on the theory presented.

Andersen, Morten Nonboe↗
NASA NTRS1986

Atmospheric tidal forcing of the zonal-mean circulation - The Martian dusty atmosphere

Classical atmospheric tidal theory has been used to compute the bilinear tidal zonal-mean forcing per unit mass of the zonal-mean meridional and zonal winds, together with the tidal zonal-mean heating per unit mass for the dusty Martian atmosphere. The convergences of the tidal Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux have been computed for both clear and dusty atmospheric conditions, including the special case of a 'dusty corridor' in the summer southern subtropics that is meant to simulate the early stages of a planetary-scale Martian dust storm. The calculation of the tidal EP zonal forcing differs from Hamilton in that more realistic thermotidal forcings and basic state temperatures are used. The zonal-mean convergences of the tidal fluxes of heat and momentum are large during a Martian great dust storm and should alter significantly the zonal-mean circulation and its residual component driven by the zonal-mean heating. In particular, the tidal forcing of the meridional wind, which is an order of magnitude greater than its zonal counterpart, is likely to give rise to a complex pattern of significantly ageostrophic zonal-mean flow in the Martian tropics.

Zurek, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Theories of Simplification and Scaling of Spatially Distributed Processes

The problem of scaling is at the heart of ecological theory, the essence of understanding and of the development of a predictive capability. The description of any system depends on the spatial, temporal, and organizational perspective chosen; hence it is essential to understand not only how patterns and dynamics vary with scale, but also how patterns at one scale are manifestations of processes operating at other scales. Evolution has shaped the characteristics of species in ways that result in scale displacement: Each species experiences the environment at its own unique set of spatial and temporal scales and interfaces the biota through unique assemblages of phenotypes. In this way, coexistence becomes possible, and biodiversity is enhanced. By averaging over space, time, and biological interactions, a genotype filters variation at fine scales and selects the arena in which it will face the vicissitudes of nature. Variation at finer scales is then noise, of minor importance to the survival and dynamics of the species, and consequently of minor importance in any attempt at description. In attempting to model ecological interactions in space, contributors throughout this book have struggled with a trade-off between simplification and "realistic" complexity and detail. Although the challenge of simplification is widely recognized in ecology, less appreciated is the intertwining of scaling questions and scaling laws with the process of simplification. In the context of this chapter simplification will in general mean the use of spatial or ensemble means and low-order moments to capture more detailed interactions by integrating over given areas. In this way, one can derive descriptions of the system at different spatial scales, which provides the essentials for the extraction of scaling laws by examination of how system properties vary with scale.

Levin, Simon A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Meso-beta scale numerical simulation studies of terrain-induced jet streak mass/momentum perturbations

Work performed during the report period is summarized. The first numerical experiment which was performed on the North Carolina Supercomputer Center's CRAY-YMP machine during the second half of FY92 involved a 36 hour simulation of the CCOPE case study. This first coarse-mesh simulation employed the GMASS model with a 178 x 108 x 32 matrix of grid points spaced approximately 24 km apart. The initial data was comprised of the global 2.5 x 2.5 degree analyses as well as all available North American rawinsonde data valid at 0000 UTC 11 July 1981. Highly-smoothed LFM-derived terrain data were utilized so as to determine the mesoscale response of the three-dimensional atmosphere to weak terrain forcing prior to including the observed highly complex terrain of the northern Rocky Mountain region. It was felt that the model should be run with a spectrum of terrain geometries, ranging from observed complex terrain to no terrain at all, to determine how crucial the terrain was in forcing the mesoscale phenomena. Both convection and stratiform (stable) precipitation were not allowed in this simulation so that their relative importance could be determined by inclusion in forth-coming simulations. A full suite of planetary boundary layer forcing was allowed in the simulation, including surface sensible and latent heat fluxes employing the Blakadar PBL formulation. The details of this simulation, which in many ways could be considered the control simulation, including the important synoptic-scale, meso-alpha scale, and meso-beta scale circulations is described. These results are compared to the observations diagnosed by Koch and his colleagues as well as hypotheses set forth in the project proposal for terrain-influences upon the jet stream and their role in the generation of mesoscale wave phenomenon. The fundamental goal of the analyses being the discrimination among background geostrophic adjustment, terrain influences, and shearing instability in the initiation and maintainance of mesoscale internal wave phenomena. Based upon these findings, FY93 plans are discussed. A review of linear theory and theoretical modeling of a geostrophic zonal wind anomaly is included.

Lin, Yuh-Lang↗
NASA NTRS2001

Closed-Shell Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Cations: A New Category of Interstellar Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

Density functional theory has been employed to calculate the harmonic frequencies and intensities of a range of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) cations that explore both size and electronic structure effects of the infrared spectroscopic properties of these species. The sample extends the size range of PAH species considered to more than 50 carbon atoms and includes several representatives from each of two heretofore unexplored categories of PAH cations: (1) fully benzenoid PAH cations whose carbon skeleton is composed of an odd number of carbon atoms (C(sub odd) PAHs); and (2) protonated PAH cations (HPAH+). Unlike the radical electronic structures of the PAH cations that have been the subject of previous theoretical and experimental work, the species in these two classes have a closed-shell electronic configuration. The calculated spectra of circumcoronene, C54H18 in both neutral and (radical) cationic form are also reported and compared with those of the other species. Overall, the C(sub odd) PAHs spectra are dominated by strong CC stretching modes near 1600 cm(exp -1) and display spectra that are remarkably insensitive to molecular size. The HPAH+ species evince a more complex spectrum consistent with the added contributions of aliphatic modes and their generally lower symmetry. Finally, for both classes of closed-shell cations, the intensity of the aromatic CH stretching modes is found to increase with molecular size far out of proportion with the number of CH groups, approaching a value more typical of neutral PAHs for the largest species studied.

Hudgins, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Molecular Processes in Comets

The research focused on molecular hydrogen and its response to ultraviolet radiation, photoelectron impact excitation and X-ray radiation and on the interpretation of the ultraviolet spectra of the Jupiter dayglow and auroras. A systematic effort was made to obtain reliable rate coefficients for rovibrational energy transfer of H2, particularly in collisions with hydrogen atoms. We carried out elaborate quantum-mechanical calculations of the scattering of H and H2 on what had been characterized as a reliable potential energy surface of the H3 molecular system. These calculations took into account reactive channels and rate coefficients for ortho-para transitions were obtained. Quantal calculations are too complex to be applied to all the possible rovibrational transitions and we turned to a semi-classical method. With it we calculated rate coefficients for transitions, reactive and non-reactive, for all the rovibrational levels. We carried out the calculations for three of the available H3 potential energy surfaces. We discovered an unexpected sensitivity of the rate coefficients for the non-reactive channels to the potential energy surface. This discovery stimulated more thorough investigations of the potential energy surface elsewhere and to the construction of a new surface. We have used it in further semi-classical calculations in work that will shortly be 2 completed and which, together with new quantum-mechanical calculations should comprise a set of reliable rate coefficients that can be used in discussions of H2 on the Jovian planets. We carried out a detailed study of the Jovian ultraviolet dayglow. There has been a long-running argument about the dayglow on Jupiter. There are two sources of excitation: fluorescence and photoelectron impact excitation. It had been argued that a third source "the electron glow" was needed to bring theory and observation into agreement. We believe we have shown conclusively that the third source is unnecessary. We have achieved a close quantitative agreement between the predicted spectrum arising from fluorescence and photoelectrons and the measured spectrum. We also demonstrated a method by which the presence of HD could be established observationary. Similar calculations were carried out of the ultraviolet spectra of the Jovian auroras. We again found close agreement. Indeed, the agreement was so detailed we were able to derive the temperature of the atmosphere. We found, contrary to the standard model of the time, a high temperature between 400 K and 600 K and established the presence of a significant temperature gradient. A large temperature gradient was indeed found by direct sampling with the Jupiter probe.

Dalgarno, A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Toward Right-Fidelity Rotorcraft Conceptual Design

The aviation Advanced Design Office (ADO) of the US Army Aeroflightdynamics Directorate (AMRDEC) performs conceptual design of advanced Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) concepts in support of the Army's development and acquisition of new aviation systems. In particular, ADO engages in system synthesis to assess the impact of new technologies and their application to satisfy emerging warfighter needs and requirements. Fundamental to ADO being successful in accomplishing its role; is the ability to evaluate a wide array of proposed air vehicle concepts, and independently synthesize new concepts to inform Army and DoD decision makers about the tradespace in which decisions will be made (Figure 1). ADO utilizes a conceptual design (CD) process in the execution of its role. Benefiting from colocation with NASA rotorcraft researchers at the Ames Research Center, ADO and NASA have engaged in a survey of the current rotorcraft PD practices and begun the process of improving those capabilities to enable effective design and development of the next generation of VTOL systems. A unique aspect of CD in ADO is the fact that actual designs developed in-house are not intended to move forward in the development process. Rather, they are used as reference points in discussions about requirements development and technology impact. The ultimate products of ADO CD efforts are technology impact assessments and specifications which guide industry design activity. The fact that both the requirement and design are variables in the tradespace adds to the complexity of the CD process. A frequent need is ability to assess the relative "cost" of variations in requirement for a diverse set of VTOL configurations. Each of these configurations may have fundamentally different response characteristics to this requirement variation, and such insight into how different requirements drive different designs is a critical insight ADO attempts to provide decision makers. The processes and tools utilized are driven by the timeline in which questions must be answered. This can range from quick "back-of-the-envelope" assessments of a configuration made in an afternoon, to more detailed tradespace explorations that can take upwards of a year to complete. A variety of spreadsheet based tools and conceptual design codes are currently in use. The in-house developed conceptual sizing code RC (Rotorcraft) has been the preferred tool of choice for CD activity for a number of years. Figure 2 illustrates the long standing coupling between RC and solid modeling tools for layout, as well as a number of ad-hoc interfaces with external analyses. RC contains a sizing routine that is built around the use of momentum theory for rotors, classic finite wing theory, a referred parameter engine model, and semi-emperical weight estimation techniques. These methods lend themselves to rapid solutions, measured in seconds and minutes. The successful use of RC, however requires careful consideration of model input parameters and judicious comparison with existing aircraft to avoid unjustified extrapolation of results. RC is in fact a legacy of a series of codes whose development started in the early 1970s, and is best suited to the study of conventional helicopters and XV-15 style tiltrotors. Other concepts have been analyzed with RC, but typically it became necessary to modify the source code and methods for each unique configuration. Recent activity has lead to the development of a new code, NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC). NDARC uses a similar level of analytical fidelity as RC, but is built on a new framework intended to improve modularity and ability to rapidly model a wider array of concepts. Critical to achieving this capability is the decomposition of the aircraft system into a series of fundamental components which can then be assembled to form a wide-array of configurations. The paper will provide an overview of NDARC and its capabilities.

Sinsay, Jeffrey D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The mosaic structure of plasma bulk flows in the Earth's magnetotail

Moments of plasma distributions observed in the magnetotail vary with different time scales. In this paper we attempt to explain the observed variability on intermediate timescales of approximately 10-20 min that result from the simultaneous energization and spatial structuring of solar wind plasma in the distant magnetotail. These processes stimulate the formation of a system of spatially disjointed. highly accelerated filaments (beamlets) in the tail. We use the results from large-scale kinetic modeling of magnetotail formation from a plasma mantle source to calculate moments of ion distribution functions throughout the tail. Statistical restrictions related to the limited number of particles in our system naturally reduce the spatial resolution of our results, but we show that our model is valid on intermediate spatial scales Delta(x) x Delta(z) equal to approximately 1 R(sub E) x 1000 km. For these spatial scales the resulting pattern, which resembles a mosaic, appears to be quite variable. The complexity of the pattern is related to the spatial interference between beamlets accelerated at various locations within the distant tail which mirror in the strong near-Earth magnetic field. Global motion of the magnetotail results in the displacement of spacecraft with respect to this mosaic pattern and can produce variations in all of the moments (especially the x-component of the bulk velocity) on intermediate timescales. The results obtained enable us to view the magnetotail plasma as consisting of two different populations: a tailward-Earthward system of highly accelerated beamlets interfering with each other, and an energized quasithermal population which gradually builds as the Earth is approached. In the near-Earth tail, these populations merge into a hot quasi-isotropic ion population typical of the near-Earth plasma sheet. The transformation of plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) beam energy into central plasma sheet (CPS) quasi-thermal energy occurs in the absence of collisions or noise. This paper also clarifies the relationship between the global scale where an MHD description might be appropriate and the lower intermediate scales where MHD fails and large-scale kinetic theory should be used.

Ashour-Abdalla, M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Prominences: The Key to Understanding Solar Activity

Prominences are spectacular manifestations of both quiescent and eruptive solar activity. The largest examples can be seen with the naked eye during eclipses, making prominences among the first solar features to be described and catalogued. Steady improvements in temporal and spatial resolution from both ground- and space-based instruments have led us to recognize how complex and dynamic these majestic structures really are. Their distinguishing characteristics - cool knots and threads suspended in the hot corona, alignment along inversion lines in the photospheric magnetic field within highly sheared filament channels, and a tendency to disappear through eruption - offer vital clues as to their origin and dynamic evolution. Interpreting these clues has proven to be contentious, however, leading to fundamentally different models that address the basic questions: What is the magnetic structure supporting prominences, and how does so much cool, dense plasma appear in the corona? Despite centuries of increasingly detailed observations, the magnetic and plasma structures in prominences are poorly known. Routine measurements of the vector magnetic field in and around prominences have become possible only recently, while long-term monitoring of the underlying filament-channel formation process also remains scarce. The process responsible for prominence mass is equally difficult to establish, although we have long known that the chromosphere is the only plausible source. As I will discuss, however, the motions and locations of prominence material can be used to trace the coronal field, thus defining the magnetic origins of solar eruptions. A combination of observations, theory, and numerical modeling must be used to determine whether any of the competing theories accurately represents the physics of prominences. I will discuss the criteria for a successful prominence model, compare the leading models, and present in detail one promising, comprehensive scenario for prominence formation and evolution that could answer the two questions posed above.

Karpen, Judy T.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Semianalytical Propagation of Satellite Orbits about an Arbitrary Central Body

Precision mean element (PME) satellite theories play a key role in orbit dynamics analyses. These theories employ: nonsingular orbital elements comprehensive force models Generalized Method of Averaging Numerical interpolation concepts The Draper Semianalytical Satellite Theory (DSST) (Refs. 1 - 6), whose development was led by the author, and the independently-developed Universal Semianalytical Method (USM) (Ref. 7) are examples of such theories. These theories provide the capability to tailor the force modeling to meet the desired computational speed vs. accuracy trade-off. The flexibility of such theories is demonstrated by their ability to include complicated atmosphere density models and spacecraft models in the perturbation theory context. The value of high speed satellite theories, in this era of computational plenty, is that they allow new ways of looking at astrodynamical problems such as orbit design (Refs. 8, 9) and atmosphere density updating (Refs. 10, 11). In the mid to late-1980 s, the geodynamics community led the development of very precise geopotential models such as GEM T2 and GEM T3 (Ref. 12), and with the subsequent analysis of the TOPEX flight data, JGM-2 and JGM-3 (Ref. 13). These were high degree and order geopotentials, at least 50 x 50. In 1993, the DSST implementation in the GTDS program was extended to include the 50 x 50 geopotential models (Ref. 14). The 50 x 50 geopotential, J2000 integration coordinate system, and solid Earth tide capabilities were integrated in GTDS by Scott Carter (Ref. 15). This capability demonstrated 1 m accuracy versus the TOPEX Precise Orbit Ephemerides. Subsequently the DSST Standalone program was also extended to include high degree and order geopotential models (Ref. 5). More recently GTDS has been hosted in the Linux PC environment. However, all of these efforts have been limited to modeling the motion of an artificial Earth satellite. They did not consider the additional complexities associated with lunar, planetary, or other natural satellite orbiters. Such complexities include: additional coordinate systems (associated with the direction of the north pole of rotation and the prime meridian of the new central bodies) (Ref. 16) normalized gravity model coefficients (desirable for high degree and order fields) (Ref. 17) indirect oblateness

Cefola, Paul J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

Corbetta, M.↗