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DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Variations in the Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over Indian Monsoon Zone

Here, this study examines cloud and precipitation properties of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Indian monsoon zone using 6 years of high-resolution satellite-based tracking data. MCSs exhibit strong regional and seasonal variations, peaking during the summer monsoon (June–September). Concentrated along a southeast-northwest band of the monsoon trough, MCS contribute 40%–70% of total precipitation and predominantly move westward at an average speed of 6.3 m s -1 . Long-lived MCSs (> 40 hr), although 10 times less frequent than short-lived MCSs (5–20 hr), produce 2–3 times more rainfall. Longer MCS lifespans and higher rainfall are associated with stronger deep-layer wind shear and enhanced lower free-tropospheric moisture at initiation. Land and ocean MCSs exhibit distinct diurnal cycles. Most land-based MCSs initiate around 16 LT and mature at 18 LT, whereas Bay of Bengal (BoB) MCSs initiate between 04 and 06 LT and peak by 14 LT. Convective precipitations from MCSs significantly surpasses that from non-MCSs systems, emphasizing their critical role in intense monsoon rainfall. Short- and long-lived MCSs showed distinct lifecycle evolution. Long-lived MCSs over the BoB show 37% larger cold-cloud shields, 44% larger precipitation feature areas, and 33% higher rain rates than their land counterparts, yielding 67% more total rainfall. These BoB MCSs also grow faster and experience more frequent cloud mergers early in their lifecycle. These findings offer critical insights into monsoonal MCSs lifecycle evolution, providing observational constraints for improving model simulations of monsoonal convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Condensation in Deep Convection

Cloud-scale models apply two drastically different methods to represent condensation of water vapor to form and grow cloud droplets. Maintenance of water saturation inside liquid clouds is assumed in the computationally efficient saturation adjustment approach used in most bulk microphysics schemes. When super- or subsaturations are allowed, condensation/evaporation can be calculated using the predicted saturation ratio and (either predicted or prescribed) mean droplet radius and concentration. Here, we investigate differences between simulations of deep unorganized convection applying a saturation adjustment condensation scheme (SADJ) and a scheme with supersaturation prediction (SPRE). A double-moment microphysics scheme with CCN activation parameterized as a function of the local vertical velocity is applied to compare cloud fields simulated applying SPRE and SADJ. Clean CCN conditions are assumed to demonstrate upper limits of the SPRE and SADJ difference. Microphysical piggybacking is used to extract the impacts with confidence. Results show a significant impact on deep convection dynamics, with SADJ featuring more cloud buoyancy and thus stronger updrafts. This leads to around a 3% increase of the surface rain accumulation in SADJ. Upper-tropospheric anvil cloud fractions are much larger in SPRE than in SADJ because of the higher ice concentrations and thus longer residence times of anvil particles in SPRE, as demonstrated by sensitivity tests. Higher ice concentrations in SPRE come from significantly larger ice supersaturations in strong convective updrafts that feature water supersaturations of several percent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-Cloud Atmospheric Ingredients for Deep Convection Initiation

A lack of routine environmental observations located near deepening cumulus congestus clouds limits verification of important theorized and simulated updraft–environment interaction processes occurring during deep convection initiation (CI). We analyze radiosonde profiles collected during several hundred CI events near a mountain range in central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign. Statistical analyses illustrate environmental conditions supporting radar-observed CI outcomes that span a spectrum of convective cell depths, widths, and durations, as well as events lacking precipitating convection. Tested environmental factors include a large variety of sounding-derived measurements of CAPE, CIN, moisture, terrain-relative winds, vertical shear, and lifted parcel properties, with supplemental model reanalysis of background larger-scale vertical motion. CAPE and CIN metrics do not consistently differentiate CI success from failure. Only a few environmental factors contain consistent monotonic relationships among the spectrum of cloud depths achieved during CI: (i) the depth and strength of background ascent, and (ii) the component of low-level flow oriented parallel to the ridgeline. These metrics suggest that the ability of the surrounding flow to lift parcels to their LFC and terrain-modified flow are consistently relevant processes for CI. Low- to midlevel relative humidity strongly discriminated between CI and non-CI events, likely reflecting entrainment-driven dilution processes. However, we could not confidently conclude that relative humidity similarly discriminated robust from marginal CI events. Circumstantial evidence was found linking cell width, an important cloud property governing the probability of CI, to LCL height, boundary layer depth, depth and magnitude of the CIN layer, and ambient wind shear.

Storm environments↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Regional distribution of large blowdown patches across Amazonia in 2005 caused by a single convective squall line: Distribution of Amazonia Blowdown Damage

In mid-January 2005 a convective squall line traversed 4.5 × 10 6 km 2 of Amazonia from southwest to northeast. As seen in Landsat images, this atypical convective storm left blowdown imprints with diffuse geometry, unlike the fan-shaped wind disturbance of much more frequent east-to-west propagating squall lines. Previous work reported 0.2% of the forest area damaged by this one relatively rare event within one Landsat image and assumed similar disturbance across the entire traverse. Here, we mapped convective wind damage impact to the region in 2005 by identifying large-scale (>4 ha) blowdown imprints in 30 Landsat images. The diffuse-type imprints associated with this single squall line contributed up to 60–72% of total 2005 wind-disturbed area detected across the region, but damage was highly concentrated in central Amazonia. Consequently, the distribution of large wind damage patches in 2005 across Amazonia was very different from long-term average. In conclusion, tegional distribution of wind-driven tree mortality for smaller patch sizes remains unknown.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

On the Utility (or Futility) of Using Stable Water Isotopes to Constrain the Bulk Properties of Tropical Convection

Atmospheric water-vapor isotopes have been proposed as a potentially powerful constraint on convection, which plays a critical role in Earth's present and future climate. It is shown here, however, that the mean tropical profile of HDO in the free troposphere does not usefully constrain the mean convective entrainment rate or precipitation efficiency. This is demonstrated using a single-column analytical model of atmospheric water isotopes. The model has three parameters: the entrainment rate, the precipitation efficiency, and the distance that evaporating condensates fall. At a given relative humidity, the possible range of HDO is small: its range is comparable to both the measurement uncertainty in the mean tropical profile and the structural uncertainty of a single-column model. Therefore, the mean tropical HDO profile is unlikely to add information about convective processes in a bulk-plume framework that cannot already be learned from relative humidity alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Buoyant currents arrested by convective dissolution

[1] When carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) dissolves into water, the density of water increases. This seemingly insubstantial phenomenon has profound implications for geologic carbon sequestration. In this work we show, by means of laboratory experiments with analog fluids, that the up–slope migration of a buoyant current of CO 2 is arrested by the convective dissolution that ensues from a fingering instability at the moving CO 2 –groundwater interface. We consider the effectiveness of convective dissolution as a large–scale trapping mechanism in sloping aquifers, and we show that a small amount of slope is beneficial compared to the horizontal case. We review the development and coarsening of the fingering instability along the migrating current and predict the maximum migration distance of the current with a simple sharp–interface model. We show that convective dissolution exerts a powerful control on CO 2 plume dynamics and, as a conclusion, on the potential of geologic carbon sequestration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Process-oriented stochastic perturbations applied to the parametrization of turbulence and shallow convection for ensemble prediction

Weather forecasting nowadays often requires some estimation of uncertainties associated with the output of meteorological models, in order to better inform decision making, especially in the context of intense weather events. Ensemble prediction systems provide such information through sets of possible scenarios which are designed to represent various uncertainty sources, including model uncertainties. A wide variety of methods have been proposed to estimate model uncertainties, among which perturbation methods targeting uncertain processes are a promising research field. Here, we focus on the representation of small-scale variability by process-oriented perturbation schemes applied to two key physical processes, namely turbulence and shallow convection. The perturbations are applied to a single-column version of the convection-permitting AROME model, in three idealized boundary-layer cases. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the same cases serve as a reference for the subgrid variability that has to be represented, and the results are also compared to those given by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) method, which is a method commonly used by weather forecast centres to represent model uncertainty. The spread produced by our process-oriented perturbations of turbulence and shallow convection does not represent all the small-scale variability implied by the LESs for temperature and humidity. However, it is of a similar order of magnitude for the wind, thanks to perturbations generated by the stochastic turbulence scheme. The dispersion is structurally different from what is obtained with SPPT. It is non-negligible in the lower levels, where SPPT perturbations are usually suppressed because of numerical instabilities, indicating a possible complementarity between the schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A two-fluid single-column model of turbulent shallow convection, Part III: Results and parameter sensitivity

Two-fluid modelling has recently emerged as a promising approach to representing cumulus convection in weather and climate models. This study applies the two-fluid model described in Part II Thuburn et al., 2021b to a shallow cumulus convection case study over land (ARM). Large eddy simulation data is used to tune the majority of the closures that determine the properties of entrained and detrained air. The two-fluid model is generally able to reproduce the profiles of the mean and turbulent quantities over all stages of the diurnal cycle. As such, the initiation of shallow convection and the evolution of the cloud layer are well captured. The robustness of the two-fluid model is further verified using a steady-state test case (BOMEX), in which the cloud properties are also well modelled.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The effect of open-cell metal foams strut shape on convection heat transfer and pressure drop

Metal foams are promising materials for applications where enhancement of heat transfer is needed. Their performance depends on morphological parameters, such as the diameters of cells, pores, and struts, the porosity, the shape of struts. The effect of strut shape on convection heat transfer and pressure drop in open-cell metal foams has been investigated numerically in this paper by introducing the foam shape factor, a parameter that characterizes the shape of the strut. The analysis has been carried out both on real and ideal foams. The geometry of three 40 Pores Per Inch (PPI) real foams, with 0.87, 0.94 and 0.96 average measured porosities, was determined with X-ray Computed Microtomography (XCT) and a morphological analysis of the XCT data was carried out. The geometry of the ideal foams, based on the Lord Kelvin foam model, with the same PPI and porosities as those of the real foams, was generated with the free-to-use software Surface Evolver, building up foams with different strut shapes. Governing equations have been solved with a finite element scheme, assuming a uniform heat flux condition at the solid/fluid boundary of the foam. Results are presented in terms of convection heat transfer coefficients and pressure distributions as a function of strut shape parameters. Here, the comparison between predictions for ideal and real foams, for different strut shapes, confirms that, in all cases, the closer the form of the ideal strut to that of the real strut the better the agreement among predictions. It is also pointed out that the convection heat transfer coefficient is maximized when, at equal porosity, the ligament shape is convex, while a concave strut shape maximizes the pressure drop.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

On the freezing time of supercooled drops in developing convective clouds over tropical ocean

Ice generation and evolution in tropical maritime convective clouds are still poorly understood and challenging to model. Aircraft measurements during the Ice in Clouds-Tropical (ICE-T) project suggest that the observed ice particles in intense convective clouds are primarily small at relatively warm temperature (between -7 °C and -10 °C), and large frozen drops are detected at a temperature colder than -10 °C. However, the ice particle size distributions (PSDs) between -7 °C and -10 °C modelled using a parcel model with spectral bin microphysics scheme are much broader than the observation. To interpret the difference in the temperature-dependent ice PSD evolution between the model simulations and the observations, the freezing times and temperatures of supercooled drops are modelled and analyzed. The results indicate that the freezing time (from the initial nucleation to fully frozen) must be considered; it is not instantaneous, and is longer for large drops than for small drops. In strong updrafts, such as that sampled by the Learjet during ICE-T, large freezing drops may be carried upwards to a temperature lower than their nucleation temperature before they are fully frozen. This offers a feasible explanation for the temperature-dependent ice particle size evolution in strong updrafts observed during ICE-T. In models, drop freezing is normally assumed to be instantaneous, which is not realistic; the models yields broader ice PSDs between -7 °C and -10 °C than is observed. The results highlight the importance to consider the freezing time of supercooled drops in interpreting the observed and modelled ice PSDs in growing turrets and in modelling ice generation in cloud resolving models. To better understand the time-dependent drop freezing and its impact on the microphysics and dynamics of convective clouds, more field measurements and laboratory experiments, as well as modelling studies are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of the effects of biomass burning in a mesoscale convective system in the central amazon

During the dry season of 2014, the formation of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) caused intense precipitation and strong winds in the central Amazon region. In this period, cases of MCS that occurred during the days when there were higher concentrations of CO were analyzed. Through this criterion, a case of MCS occurred on August 16th, 2014 was selected. We used the chemical-atmospheric model WRF-Chem to assess the influence of biomass burning aerosol on the intensity of precipitation, winds, vertical and horizontal transport associated with this convective system. We show that biomass burning aerosol reduces the strength of the mesoscale convective system, with less vertical and horizontal transport of carbon monoxide and ozone. Here, in the absence of biomass burning aerosol downdrafts and precipitation rate are more intense, and cloud development up to 5km is more developed, making the horizontal flow and vertical transport of ozone more intense, however, much more efficient in reducing the concentrations of other gases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

A conservative nonlocal convection–diffusion model and asymptotically compatible finite difference discretization

Here in this paper, we first propose a nonlocal convection–diffusion model, in which the convection term is constructed in a special upwind manner so that mass conservation and maximum principle are maintained in any space dimension. The well-posedness of the proposed nonlocal model and its convergence to the classical local convection–diffusion model are established. A quadrature-based finite difference discretization is then developed to numerically solve the nonlocal problem and it is shown to be consistent and unconditionally stable. We further demonstrate that the numerical scheme is asymptotically compatible, that is, the approximate solutions converge to the exact solution of the corresponding local problem when δ → 0 and h → 0. Numerical experiments are also performed to complement the theoretical analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convective heat transfer and friction factor characteristics of molten salts in spirally fluted tubes

Spirally fluted tubes have been widely used for heat exchangers due to their superior heat transfer enhancement. However, most of the previous studies focused on the effects of a limited number of geometric parameters, i.e., the flute pitch and flute depth, on convective heat transfer and friction factor characteristics of low-Prandtl-number fluids, i.e., air and water. The correlations developed in these studies may not be accurate or applicable for medium-Prandtl-number fluids, such as molten salts. A numerical analysis using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool, STAR–CCM+, is therefore carried out in this study to systematically investigate the effects of four geometric parameters, including the flute pitch ρ, flute depth e, flute start number N s (or flute helix angle θ), and trough length L tr on convective heat transfer and friction factor characteristics of a medium-Prandtl-number fluid, FLiNaK (46.5LiF-11.5NaF-42KF mol %), in spirally fluted tubes. Additionally, the convective heat transfer and Darcy friction factor correlations are proposed and validated, with ± 20% uncertainties, for medium-Prandtl-number fluids under the following conditions: Re = 88–1600, Pr = 2.5–40, ρ/D c = 0.44–3.51, e/D c = 0.10–0.40, θ/90= 0.20–0.81, and L tr /D c = 0.71–2.16. The correlations proposed help improve the design of spirally fluted-tube heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Boundary zonal flows in rapidly rotating turbulent thermal convection

Recently, in Zhang et al. ( Phys. Rev. Lett. , vol. 124, 2020, 084505), it was found that, in rapidly rotating turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in slender cylindrical containers (with diameter-to-height aspect ratio $\varGamma =1/2$ ) filled with a small-Prandtl-number fluid ( ${Pr}\approx 0.8$ ), the large-scale circulation is suppressed and a boundary zonal flow (BZF) develops near the sidewall, characterized by a bimodal probability density function of the temperature, cyclonic fluid motion and anticyclonic drift of the flow pattern (with respect to the rotating frame). This BZF carries a disproportionate amount ( ${>}60\,\%$ ) of the total heat transport for ${Pr} < 1$ , but decreases rather abruptly for larger ${Pr}$ to approximately $35\,\%$ . In this work, we show that the BZF is robust and appears in rapidly rotating turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in containers of different $\varGamma$ and over a broad range of ${Pr}$ and ${Ra}$ . Furthermore, tirect numerical simulations for Prandtl number $0.1 \leq {\textit {Pr}} \leq 12.3$ , Rayleigh number $10^7 \leq {Ra} \leq 5\times 10^{9}$ , inverse Ekman number $10^{5} \leq 1/{\textit {Ek}} \leq 10^{7}$ and $\varGamma = 1/3$ , 1/2, 3/4, 1 and 2 show that the BZF width $\delta _0$ scales with the Rayleigh number ${Ra}$ and Ekman number ${\textit {Ek}}$ as $\delta _0/H \sim \varGamma ^{0} Pr^{\{-1/4, 0\}} {Ra}^{1/4} {\textit {Ek}}^{2/3}$ ( $\{{\textit {Pr}}<1, {\textit {Pr}}>1\}$ ) and with the drift frequency scales as $\omega /\varOmega \sim \varGamma ^{0} Pr^{-4/3} {Ra}\,{\textit {Ek}}^{5/3}$ , where $H$ is the cell height and $\varOmega$ the angular rotation rate. The mode number of the BZF is 1 for $\varGamma \lesssim 1$ and $2 \varGamma$ for $\varGamma = \{1,2\}$ independent of ${Ra}$ and ${Pr}$ . The BZF is quite reminiscent of wall mode states in rotating convection.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sensitivity of Simulated Deep Convection to a Stochastic Ice Microphysics Framework

Ice microphysics parameterizations in models must make major simplifications relative to observations, typically employing empirical relationships to represent average functional properties of particles. However, previous studies have established that ice particle properties vary even in similar cloud types and thermodynamic environments, and it remains unclear how this so-called “natural variability” impacts simulated deep convection. This uncertainty is addressed by implementing a stochastic framework into the Predicted Particle Properties microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The approach stochastically varies the coefficients of the mass-size (m-D) relationship (m=aD b ) for unrimed and partially rimed ice. Using guidance from aircraft in situ measurements obtained during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), the scheme samples from distributions of the prefactor (a) and the exponent (b) of the m-D relationship. Simulations of two MC3E deep convective cases indicate that the stochastic m-D scheme produces considerable variability of anvil cirrus cloud optical depth (τ) distributions, even for the same ice water path (IWP). Thus, the stochastic scheme produces variable cloud radiative forcing that is independent of IWP. This τ-IWP relationship variability is nonexistent using the deterministic m-D ensemble. Additional sensitivity tests are performed in which the fallspeed-size relationship (V=cD d ) is stochastically varied, resulting in variable precipitation amounts and rain rate distributions. Results are presented in the context of satellite and precipitation observations and include comparison with other ensemble configurations using perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions and small-amplitude noise added to the potential temperature field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Improved Representation of Aerosol Wet Removal by Deep Convection and Impacts on Simulated Aerosol Vertical Profiles

Here, we introduce a physics-based aerosol wet removal scheme with unified treatments of aerosol transport and removal by convective clouds into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6. Since several important physical processes are still neglected or poorly represented in this new physics-based scheme, we develop secondary improvements to the parameterizations of aerosol activation, resuspension, and cloud-borne aerosol detrainment in this new scheme. Changes in the aerosol wet removal scheme cause tropospheric aerosol concentrations to decrease to different extents: compared to the control run, the physics-based scheme significantly decreases aerosol burdens by up to 60% over the southern Pacific Ocean, whereas the secondary improvements mitigate the decreasing tendency. The burden changes also depend on aerosol chemical components: the sulfate mass decrease is compensated by secondary production, black carbon (BC) is effectively removed via increasing the hygroscopicity of particulate organic matter from 0 to 0.2, and dust shows the most spatially heterogeneous changes. Simulated aerosol profiles are evaluated against aircraft-based observations over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The secondary-improved scheme reduces the overestimations of upper tropospheric BC and sea salt concentrations by a factor of 10 and 1,000, respectively, and reproduces the dependence of BC mass decrease rates on cloud types. Consideration of convective cloud-borne aerosol detrainment plays the most important role in enhancing the aerosol wet removal and decreasing the positive biases of tropospheric BC and sea salt concentrations. We also summarize unresolved issues related to convective cloud genesis and microphysics, cloud-borne aerosol evolution, and BC and dust emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating the Causes and Impacts of Convective Aggregation in a High Resolution Atmospheric GCM

Abstract A ∼50 km resolution atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is used to investigate the impact of radiative interactions on spatial organization of convection, the model's mean state, and extreme precipitation events in the presence of realistic boundary conditions. Mechanism‐denial experiments are performed in which synoptic‐scale feedbacks between radiation and dynamics are suppressed by overwriting the model‐generated atmospheric radiative cooling rates with its monthly varying climatological values. When synoptic‐scale radiative interactions are disabled, the annual mean circulation and precipitation remain almost unchanged, however tropical convection becomes less aggregated, with an increase in cloud fraction and relative humidity in the free troposphere but a decrease in both variables in the boundary layer. Changes in cloud fraction and relative humidity in the boundary layer exhibit more sensitivity to the presence of radiative interactions than variations in the degree of aggregation. The less aggregated state is associated with a decrease in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, coincident with a decrease in the dynamical contribution to the magnitude of extreme precipitation. At regional scales, the spatial contrast in radiative cooling between dry and moist regions diminishes when radiative interactions are suppressed, reducing the upgradient transport of energy, degree of aggregation, and frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, the mean width of the tropical rain belt remains almost unaffected when radiative interactions are disabled. These results offer insights into how radiation‐circulation coupling affects the spatial organization of convection, distributions of clouds and humidity, and weather extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗