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DOE OSTI2024

Inventory of Clean Energy Education and Workforce Programs in Connecticut's I-91 Corridor

This document reports on the findings of an inventory of the educational and workforce development resources in a four-county area on the I-91 corridor in Connecticut. The overarching goal of this exercise is to help the local workforce leaders in Bridgeport, Connecticut to optimize their training programs to support the county's clean energy transition. The inventory generally finds that Fairfield County, where Bridgeport is located, lacks adequate education and training programs compared to other surrounding counties with similar populations. More than half of Fairfield County's programs occur through high school or career technical education programs, suggesting that there are minimal opportunities for workers who are not currently high school students. Much of the existing focus within Fairfield County is on general construction or plumbing and electrical skills. There is room to expand by offering more programs focusing on energy efficiency and renewable energy skills. The document outlines some potential next steps and questions for consideration for the local workforce leaders in Bridgeport. Bridgeport is a city located within Fairfield County in southwestern Connecticut. It is the largest city in Connecticut with an estimated population of 150,000. Through the Department of Energy-funded Communities LEAP program, NREL conducted an analysis of existing education and workforce development (EWD) programs located in Fairfield County that align with (or could support) the worker pipeline for occupations related to building energy efficiency (EE), renewable energy (RE), and clean energy manufacturing. The analysis also looked at EWD offerings in other counties in Connecticut as a point of comparison.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anatomy of Continuous Mars SEIS and Pressure Data from Unsupervised Learning

The seismic noise recorded by the Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport (InSight) seismometer (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure [SEIS]) has a strong daily quasi-periodicity and numerous transient microevents, associated mostly with an active Martian environment with wind bursts, pressure drops, in addition to thermally induced lander and instrument cracks. That noise is far from the Earth’s microseismic noise. Quantifying the importance of nonstochasticity and identifying these microevents is mandatory for improving continuous data quality and noise analysis techniques, including autocorrelation. Cataloging these events has so far been made with specific algorithms and operator’s visual inspection. We investigate here the continuous data with an unsupervised deep-learning approach built on a deep scattering network. This leads to the successful detection and clustering of these microevents as well as better determination of daily cycles associated with changes in the intensity and color of the background noise. We first provide a description of our approach, and then present the learned clusters followed by a study of their origin and associated physical phenomena. We show that the clustering is robust over several Martian days, showing distinct types of glitches that repeat at a rate of several tens per sol with stable time differences. We show that the clustering and detection efficiency for pressure drops and glitches is comparable to or better than manual or targeted detection techniques proposed to date, noticeably with an unsupervised approach. Finally, here we discuss the origin of other clusters found, especially glitch sequences with stable time offsets that might generate artifacts in autocorrelation analyses. We conclude with presenting the potential of unsupervised learning for long-term space mission operations, in particular, for geophysical and environmental observatories.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Makah Tribe Strategic Energy Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) connects remote and island communities, regional partners, and the DOE national laboratories to support communities as they seek to build resilience in their energy systems. The Makah Tribe faces several energy challenges, including frequent power outages and the potential for an extended outage due to an earthquake or tsunami. The Tribe joined ETIPP in 2022 to address those challenges, seeking to build energy resilience and sovereignty in the community. The Makah Tribe, Spark Northwest, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated to develop a strategic energy plan as part of the second cohort of ETIPP communities. The long-term energy vision of the Makah Tribe includes increasing energy efficiency in the community, improving energy management capacity, and developing the renewable energy generation and storage sufficient to independently power the Reservation for one year. Additionally, the ETIPP team worked with Makah leadership, staff, and community members to identify a set of community priorities, values, and goals to guide energy development as the Tribe takes the incremental steps toward their vision for energy sovereignty. Those energy values include ecosystem-based management, energy sovereignty and project ownership, workforce development and capacity, economic opportunity, community wellbeing and priorities, and emergency disaster resilience. To understand what would be needed for a year for energy independence, the PNNL team conducted an assessment to determine the current energy usage of the Tribe and also modeled several scenarios for future energy use. Using the energy usage values, the team estimated how two types of renewable energy technology, specifically locally deployed solar and small-scale wind, could contribute towards the energy independence goal. The energy baseline and resource assessment produced the following key findings:

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of a Metamodel-Based Optimization for the Design of a High Power Density Wound Field Traction Motor

Traction motors onboard electric vehicles (EVs) are faced with ever-increasing power density requirements and cost reduction challenges. Although permanent magnet (PM) traction motors have been favored for their potential of higher power densities, the price and supply volatility of PM materials are the major drawbacks. Instead of a single load point, the performance of a traction motor needs to be optimized over various combinations of torque and speed to represent real-world vehicular driving scenarios, which tends to be a time-consuming task with direct optimizations. In this study, as a PM-free solution, a wound field synchronous motor (WFSM) is designed and optimized using a metamodel-based approach to maximize its efficiency over a custom set of load points, while utilizing a fully per-unitized geometry template. The workflow has proven to be timesaving and the optimal design is prototyped and tested.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the circulation, water mass distribution, and nutrient concentrations of the western Chukchi Sea

Substantial amounts of nutrients and carbon enter the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait, distributed over three main pathways. Water with low salinities and nutrient concentrations takes an eastern route along the Alaskan coast, as Alaskan Coastal Water. A central pathway exhibits intermediate salinity and nutrient concentrations, while the most nutrient-rich water enters the Bering Strait on its western side. Towards the Arctic Ocean, the flow of these water masses is subject to strong topographic steering within the Chukchi Sea with volume transport modulated by the wind field. In this contribution, we use data from several sections crossing Herald Canyon collected in 2008 and 2014 together with numerical modelling to investigate the circulation and transport in the western part of the Chukchi Sea. We find that a substantial fraction of water from the Chukchi Sea enters the East Siberian Sea south of Wrangel Island and circulates in an anticyclonic direction around the island. This water then contributes to the high-nutrient waters of Herald Canyon. The bottom of the canyon has the highest nutrient concentrations, likely as a result of addition from the degradation of organic matter at the sediment surface in the East Siberian Sea. The flux of nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, and silicate) and dissolved inorganic carbon in Bering Summer Water and Winter Water is computed by combining hydrographic and nutrient observations with geostrophic transport referenced to lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP) and surface drift data. Even if there are some general similarities between the years, there are differences in both the temperature–salinity and nutrient characteristics. To assess these differences, and also to get a wider temporal and spatial view, numerical modelling results are applied. According to model results, high-frequency variability dominates the flow in Herald Canyon. This leads us to conclude that this region needs to be monitored over a longer time frame to deduce the temporal variability and potential trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solar PV Curtailment in Changing Grid and Technological Contexts: Preprint

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems generate electricity with no marginal costs or emissions. As a result, PV output is almost always prioritized over other fuel sources and delivered to the electric grid. At increasing levels of PV penetration situations arise where PV is curtailed, either because of local supply/demand imbalances or to maintain system flexibility. In 2018, we estimate that about 6.5 million MWh of PV output was curtailed in four key countries: Chile, China, Germany, and the United States. We find that PV curtailment peaks in the spring and fall, when PV output is relatively high but electricity demand is relatively low. Similar to the case of wind, some PV curtailment is attributable to limited transmission capacity connecting sparsely populated solar-heavy regions to load centers.Grid policies generally seek to minimize curtailment because it is viewed as an economic and environmental loss. However, we argue that changing grid and technological contexts warrant new thinking on PV curtailment. In the grid context, as grids integrate more PV and other renewable energy generation, seeking an optimal level of accepted curtailment becomes more efficient than preventing it. In the technological context, emerging technologies such as advanced inverters and low-cost battery storage are making PV systems more flexible. With flexible PV, grid operators can use withheld PV output to provide various non-generation grid services. This withheld PV output is a form of curtailment under prevailing definitions of the term. Hence, policies that aim to minimize curtailment may undercut the ability of grid operators to fully use the emerging capabilities of flexible PV systems. We argue that the changing grid and technological contexts require a re-examination of the curtailment paradigm. We argue that PV output that is withheld to provide grid services is fundamentally different from output that goes unused in response to system constraints. As a result, we propose a more exclusive definition of curtailment as unused PV output rather than the more expansive conventional definition as any reduction in system output from its technical potential. The terminological distinction is more than a question of semantics. Facilitating grid services by withholding PV output may increase the potential value of flexible PV systems to the grid. This shift in thinking may allow grid operators and policymakers to think in terms of PV curtailment management rather than minimization. Effective curtailment management may include policies that increase PV system dispatchability, alternative PV compensation schemes that decouple generator revenue from system output, and policies to increase grid flexibility.

Chile↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Potential Impact of Fugitive Methane Emissions on Offshore Platform Safety

One of the biggest risks to safety on offshore platform safety is the ignition of high-pressure natural gas streams. Currently, the size and number of fugitive emissions on offshore platforms is unknown and methods used to detect fugitives have significant shortcomings. To investigate the frequency, size, and potential impact of fugitives, a data collection exercise was conducted using incidents reported, leak survey data, and independent measurements. The size and number of fugitives on offshore facilities were simulated to investigate likely areas of safety concern. Incident reports indicate in 2021 there were 113 reports of gas leaks on 1119 offshore facilities, suggesting 0.02 fugitives per Type 1 facility (older, shallow-water platforms) and 0.31 fugitives per Type 2 facility (larger deeper-water facilities). Leak survey data report 12 fugitives per Type 1 facility (average emission 0.6 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ) and 15 fugitives per Type 2 facility (average emission 1.5 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ). Reconciliation of direct measurements with a bottom-up model suggests that the number of fugitive emissions generated from the leak report data is an underestimate for Type 1 platforms (44 fugitives facility −1 ; average emission 0.6 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ) and in general agreement for the Type 2 platforms (15 fugitives facility −1 ; average emission 1.5 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ). Analysis of the fugitive emission rates on an offshore platform suggests that gas will not collect to explosive concentration if any air movement is present (>0.36 mph); however, large volumes of air (~600 m 3 ) near representative leaks on the working deck could become explosive in hour-long zero-wind conditions. We suggest that wearable technology could be employed to indicate gas build up, safety regulations amended to consider low-wind conditions and real-world experiments are conducted to test assumptions of air mixing on the working deck.

explosion↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lorentz Symmetry Group, Retardation, Intergalactic Mass Depletion and Mechanisms Leading to Galactic Rotation Curves

The general theory of relativity (GR) is symmetric under smooth coordinate transformations, also known as diffeomorphisms. The general coordinate transformation group has a linear subgroup denoted as the Lorentz group of symmetry, which is also maintained in the weak field approximation to GR. The dominant operator in the weak field equation of GR is thus the d’Alembert (wave) operator, which has a retarded potential solution. Galaxies are huge physical systems with dimensions of many tens of thousands of light years. Thus, any change at the galactic center will be noticed at the rim only tens of thousands of years later. Those retardation effects are neglected in the present day galactic modelling used to calculate rotational velocities of matter in the rims of the galaxy and surrounding gas. The significant differences between the predictions of Newtonian instantaneous action at a distance and observed velocities are usually explained by either assuming dark matter or by modifying the laws of gravity (MOND). In this paper, we will show that, by taking general relativity seriously without neglecting retardation effects, one can explain the radial velocities of galactic matter in the M33 galaxy without postulating dark matter. It should be stressed that the current approach does not require that velocities v are high; in fact, the vast majority of galactic bodies (stars, gas) are substantially subluminal—in other words, the ratio of $\frac{v}{c} \ll 1$. Typical velocities in galaxies are 100 km/s, which makes this ratio 0.001 or smaller. However, one should consider the fact that every gravitational system, even if it is made of subluminal bodies, has a retardation distance, beyond which the retardation effect cannot be neglected. Every natural system, such as stars and galaxies and even galactic clusters, exchanges mass with its environment, for example, the sun loses mass through solar wind and galaxies accrete gas from the intergalactic medium. This means that all natural gravitational systems have a finite retardation distance. The question is thus quantitative: how large is the retardation distance? For the M33 galaxy, the velocity curve indicates that the retardation effects cannot be neglected beyond a certain distance, which was calculated to be roughly 14,000 light years; similar analysis for other galaxies of different types has shown similar results. We demonstrate, using a detailed model, that this does not require a high velocity of gas or stars in or out of the galaxy and is perfectly consistent with the current observational knowledge of galactic and extra galactic material content and dynamics

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stability and control of power systems with high penetrations of inverter-based resources: An accessible review of current knowledge and open questions

As power system renewable energy penetrations increase, the ways in which key renewable technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) differ from thermal generators become more apparent. Many studies have examined the variability and uncertainty of such generators and described how generation and load can be balanced for a wide variety of annual energy penetrations, at timescales from seconds to years. Another important characteristic of these resources is asynchronicity, the result of using inverters to interface the prime energy source with the power system as opposed to synchronous generators. Unlike synchronous generators, whose frequency of alternating current (AC) injection is physically coupled to the rotation of the machine itself, inverter based asynchronous generators do not share the same physical coupling with the generated frequency. These subtle differences impact the operations of power systems developed around the characteristics of synchronous generators. In this paper we review current knowledge and open research questions concerning the interplay between asynchronous inverter-based resources (IBRs) and cycle- to second-scale power system dynamics, with a focus on how stability and control may be impacted or need to be achieved differently when there are high instantaneous penetrations of IBRs across an interconnection. This work does not seek to provide a comprehensive review of the latest developments, but is instead intended to be accessible to any reader with an engineering background and an interest in power systems and renewable energy. As such, the paper includes basic material on power electronics, control schemes for IBRs, and power system stability; and uses this background material to describe potential impacts of IBRs on power system stability, operational challenges associated with large amounts of distributed IBR generation, and modern power system simulation trends driven by IBR characteristics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distributed Acoustic Sensing for Whale Vocalization Monitoring: A Vertical Deployment Field Test

Abstract There is growing interest in floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) technology, where turbines are installed on floating structures anchored to the seabed, allowing wind energy development in areas unsuitable for traditional fixed-platform turbines. Responsible development requires monitoring the impact of FOWTs on marine wildlife, such as whales, throughout the operational lifecycle of the turbines. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS)—a technology that transforms fiber-optic cables into vibration sensor arrays—has been demonstrated for acoustic monitoring of whales using seafloor telecommunications cables. However, no studies have yet evaluated DAS performance in dynamic, engineered environments, such as floating platforms or moving vessels with complex, dynamic strain loads, despite their relevance to FOWT settings. This study addresses that gap by deploying DAS aboard a boat in Monterey Bay, California, where a fiber-optic cable was lowered using a weighted and suspended mooring line, enabling vertical deployment. Humpback whale vocalizations were captured and identified in the DAS data, noise sources were identified, and DAS data were compared to audio captured by a standalone hydrophone attached to the mooring line and a nearby hydrophone on a cabled observatory. This study is unique in: (1) deploying DAS in a vertical deployment mode, where noise from turbulence, cable vibrations, and other sources posed additional challenges compared to seafloor DAS applications; (2) demonstrating DAS in a dynamic, nonstationary setup, which is uncommon for DAS interrogators typically used in more stable environments; and (3) leveraging looped sections of the cable to reduce the noise floor and mitigate the effects of excessive cable vibrations and strain. This research demonstrates DAS’s ability to capture whale vocalizations in challenging environments, highlighting its potential to enhance underwater acoustic monitoring, particularly in the context of renewable energy development in offshore environments.

Saw, Jaewon↗

DOE OSTI2025

Marine Toxicity, Biodegradability, and Rolling-Sliding Tribological Performance of Ionic Liquid-Enhanced Environmentally-Acceptable Lubricants for Tidal Turbomachinery

Environmentally acceptable lubricants (EALs) are increasingly being recognized in many fields including waterpower, hydraulics, water transport, agricultural machinery, offshore wind turbines, etc. Specifically, high-performance EALs are demanded for tidal turbomachinery to ensure high efficiency and reliability and avoid the significant risk of direct contamination of the marine ecosystem upon leaks. Here we report a new development of ionic liquid (IL)-enhanced EALs for tidal energy. One short-chain phosphonium phosphate and one short-chain ammonium phosphate ILs were used as the candidate additives and the IL-containing EALs demonstrated significantly improved lubricating performance, much lower toxicity, and increased biodegradability compared with commercial baselines. Specifically, in a rolling-sliding test simulating the operation of a model tidal turbine gearbox bearing, an EAL containing the ILs at a 0.5 wt % concentration demonstrated 40% lower friction, 45% less wear loss, substantially reduced rolling contact fatigue-induced surface damage, and one order of magnitude lower vibration noise compared with a commercial gear oil. In an EPA standard toxicity test, 90 and 70% survival of marine biota was observed when exposed to an EAL containing 5 wt % of the short-chain phosphonium phosphate and ammonium phosphate ILs, respectively, while the selected commercial gear oil and bioderived additive killed all marine biota. In a standard biodegradability test, 2 wt % addition of the phosphonium phosphate IL not only retained the EAL’s ready biodegradability but further boosted the oil decomposition from a range of 60–80% to a higher level of 80–95%. Conversely, adding the commercial bioderived additive downgraded the EAL from readily to inherently biodegradable. Furthermore, this work offers scientific insights for development of ILs as potential EAL additives for marine energy and broader applications.

additives↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of wind turbine blade recycling baselines in the United States

Over the past several years, the wind energy industry has received scrutiny regarding wind turbine blade (WTB) recycling due to the landfilling of WTBs caused by a lack of industrially viable recycling solutions. The amount of WTBs that will need to be recycled is set to increase in the United States as the deployment of wind energy is expected to rapidly grow to meet the nation's energy goals by 2035. While significant progress has been made worldwide, it is still unclear which WTB recycling solutions would be the most cost and energy effective within the United States for the existing fleet of wind turbines. To guide researchers and industry with a clear path forward, a range of options for WTB recycling in the United States are modeled through development of baseline scenarios and the use of formal life cycle assessment (LCA). Model data have been collected through literature review, industry engagement, and expert opinion regarding current end of life practices and considerations surrounding equipment, labor, and logistics. A detailed baseline for WTB decommissioning processes has been developed and used to assess alternative approaches, such as on-site shredding to compare the impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The developed LCA model and baseline scenarios for WTB recycling is used to assess the current WTB decommissioning practices in the United States along with emerging recycling pathways, including cement kiln co-processing and pyrolysis. Initial findings indicate that there are different approaches to decommissioning WTBs in the United States, each of which has unique implications for recycling. In light of this finding, additional results from the modeling will be used to better understand decommissioning practices and assist in making educated decisions on recycling pathways for the future. Throughout the analysis, focus was given to where international efforts might differ from the United States. WTB recycling is occurring worldwide, and different countries have different drivers for creating markets for recycled WTB materials. The contrasts and similarities between the United States and other countries offer insight to areas of opportunity that the United States could investigate and areas that can be readily transferred from existing solutions. By modeling and characterizing the current decommissioning practices and potential recycling solutions for the United States, a clearer vision will be created for pathways forward as to how to handle end of life WTBs to enable more efficient and cost-effective opportunities for material recovery from end-of-life WTBs.

Korey, Matt↗

DOE OSTI2023

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of wave damping and finite perpendicular scale on three-dimensional Alfvén wave parametric decay in low-beta plasmas

Shear Alfvén wave parametric decay instability (PDI) provides a potential path toward significant wave dissipation and plasma heating. However, fundamental questions regarding how PDI is excited in a realistic three-dimensional (3D) open system and how the finite perpendicular wave scale—as found in both laboratory and space plasmas—affects the excitation remain poorly understood. Here, we present the first 3D, open-boundary, hybrid kinetic-fluid simulations of kinetic Alfvén wave PDI in low-beta plasmas. Key findings are that the PDI excitation is strongly limited by the wave damping present, including electron–ion collisional damping (represented by a constant resistivity) and geometrical attenuation associated with the finite-scale Alfvén wave, and ion Landau damping of the child acoustic wave. The perpendicular wave scale alone, however, plays no discernible role: waves of different perpendicular scales exhibit similar instability excitation as long as the magnitude of the parallel ponderomotive force remains unchanged. These findings are corroborated by theoretical analysis and estimates. This new understanding of 3D kinetic Alfvén wave PDI physics is essential for laboratory study of the basic plasma process and may also aid future evaluation of the relevance/role of PDI in low-beta space plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative Research: Advancing Arctic Climate Projection Capability at Seasonal to Decadal Scales (Final Technical Report)

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) at process resolving configurations has been used to (i) advance understanding of physical processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic amplification and (ii) understand and potentially reduce uncertainty in prediction of arctic climate change at seasonal to decadal scales. RASM consists the atmosphere (Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF), ocean (Parallel Ocean Program, POP), sea ice (CICE), land hydrology (Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC), river routing scheme (RVIC), marine biogeochemistry components and the coupling framework (CPL7). Its domain is pan-Arctic, with the atmosphere and land components configured on a 50-km or 25-km grid and four configurations of the ocean and sea ice components: 1/12°(~9.3km) or 1/48°(~2.4km) and 45 or 60 vertical layers. These RASM configurations have been motivated by the emerging exascale capability for high performance computing to improve model fidelity. The dynamical downscaling of reanalysis allows comparison of RASM results with observations in place and time to: (i) advance system level understanding of physical processes and coupling involved in an event, (ii) optimize model parameter space, (iii) diagnose and reduce model biases and (iv) produce realistic and consistent across all the components initial conditions for predictions and predictability studies, which are all unique capabilities not available in global Earth System Models (ESMs). An evaluation of RASM 1.0 (Cassano et al. 2017) revealed that it had a cold bias over the oceans and a warm bias over land areas due largely to cloud and radiation biases in the model, with too little cloud cover simulated over land and too much cloud cover simulated over sub-polar oceans. This study has motivated an upgrade to WRF version 3.7.1 in RASM and allowed for the inclusion of the radiative impact of convective clouds. A variety of atmospheric physics parameterizations were evaluated against observations (e.g. data from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE); Sedlar et al. 2020) to identify an optimal suite of WRF physics options in RASM. The RASM with the optimized WRF physics were used to study the impact of strong mesoscale winds over the ocean around the southern tip of Greenland (DuVivier and Cassano 2016) and their impact on oceanic convection (DuVivier et al. 2017a). Data from the PolarWinds field campaign were used to evaluate WRF boundary layer physics and resolution impacts on the simulation of a Greenland barrier wind event (DuVivier et al. 2017b). The RVIC streamflow routing model has been implemented in RASM to realistically represent high-resolution streamflow processes (Hamman et al. 2017) and to couple the land buoyancy fluxes to the ocean. The RASM-RVIC high-resolution data set of all coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas for 1979-2014 was published as a separate product (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.293037). The fidelity of atmospheric momentum transfer to and the response of polar marine Ekman layer in RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) was investigated by Roberts et al. (2015). The increased frequency of oceanic flux exchange in CESM, following the RASM guidance, caused a considerable increase in the median inertial ice speed across the Southern Ocean and parts of the Arctic. A comprehensive evaluation of the RASM1.0 atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land interface was completed by Brunke et al. (2018). RASM was also demonstrated for its capability to simulate extreme events in agreement with observations in space and time (Lee et al. submitted). In particular, the development of three open water events, known as polynyas, have been simulated north of Greenland in February of 2011, 2017 and 2018, in agreement with satellite observations for the past four decades. The optimized RASM sea ice results have been favorably evaluated against satellite observations and a subset of eleven CMIP6 models (Watts et al. submitted). In a complementary project, Jin et al. (2018) have shown that RASM with higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice conditions, concentrations of nutrients and ice algae, in comparison to results from the coarse-resolution (1°) CESM. In two other complementary studies, RASM results were used (i) to explain areas of concentrated use by bowhead whales, the seasonal progression in the use, and the physical environment within those areas (Citta et al. 2015) and (ii) for a synthesis of fall bowhead whales distribution and migration in the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) Sea to investigate whale movements and feeding to the local ocean hydrography and currents (Citta et al. 2018). However, the multi-decadal output from the CESM Large Ensemble yielded unrealistic forcing. Instead, the shorter NCEP CFSv2 9-month forecasts were successfully tested and afforded an increased ensemble size (~30) to demonstrate gains of dynamical downscaling at sub-seasonal to intra-annual time scales. The improved model physics and coupling among RASM model components have yielded more realistic representation of the sea ice cover and consistent across all model components initial conditions. Consequently, RASM demonstrates significant gains compared to simulation of sea ice in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, RASM 6-month ensemble forecasts yield very realistic sea ice distribution, which demonstrates both significant gains of dynamical downscaling and the continued impact of the initial conditions on forecasts out to 6 months (https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions). A follow up study using RASM for dynamical downscaling of the more realistic CESM initialized Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble output is currently ongoing as part of the DOE RGMA HiLAT-RASM project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Roadmap to Advance Heliostat Technologies for Concentrating Solar-Thermal Power

Heliostat-based concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) systems can offer immense potential to provide low-cost, dispatchable renewable thermal and electrical energy to help achieve 100% decarbonized energy infrastructure in the United States. Heliostats are a major capital cost technology and a performance-dominating component of state-of-the-art commercial molten salt towers and Generation 3 CSP systems. In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) launched the Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon), a five-year initiative to advance heliostat technologies. The HelioCon mission is threefold: (1) establish strategic core testing and modeling capabilities and infrastructure at national labs; (2) support heliostat technology development in relevant industries; and (3) serve as a central repository to integrate industry, academia, and other stakeholders for heliostat technology research, development, validation, and deployment. In this report, HelioCon presents a roadmapping study on advancing heliostat technologies, intended as a central reference for the whole CSP community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗