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NASA NTRS1999

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗
NASA NTRS1999

Linkages Between Multiscale Global Sea Surface Temperature Change and Precipitation Variabilities in the US

A growing number of evidence indicates that there are coherent patterns of variability in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly not only at interannual timescales, but also at decadal-to-inter-decadal timescale and beyond. The multi-scale variabilities of SST anomaly have shown great impacts on climate. In this work, we analyze multiple timescales contained in the globally averaged SST anomaly with and their possible relationship with the summer and winter rainfall in the United States over the past four decades.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Modelling Temporal Variability in the Carbon Balance of a Spruce/Moss Boreal Forest

A model of the daily carbon balance of a black spruce/feathermoss boreal forest ecosystem was developed and results compared to preliminary data from the 1994 BOREAS field campaign in northern Manitoba, Canada. The model, driven by daily weather conditions, simulated daily soil climate status (temperature and moisture profiles), spruce photosynthesis and respiration, moss photosynthesis and respiration, and litter decomposition. Model agreement with preliminary field data was good for net ecosystem exchange (NEE), capturing both the asymmetrical seasonality and short-term variability. During the growing season simulated daily NEE ranged from -4 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon uptake by ecosystem) to + 2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon flux to atmosphere), with fluctuations from day to day. In the early winter simulated NEE values were + 0.5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1), dropping to + 0.2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) in mid-winter. Simulated soil respiration during the growing season (+ 1 to + 5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was dominated by metabolic respiration of the live moss, with litter decomposition usually contributing less than 30% and live spruce root respiration less than 10% of the total. Both spruce and moss net primary productivity (NPP) rates were higher in early summer than late summer. Simulated annual NEE for 1994 was -51 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1), with 83% going into tree growth and 17% into the soil carbon accumulation. Moss NPP (58 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was considered to be litter (i.e. soil carbon input; no net increase in live moss biomass). Ecosystem respiration during the snow-covered season (84 g Cm(exp -2)) was 58% of the growing season net carbon uptake. A simulation of the same site for 1968-1989 showed about 10-20% year-to-year variability in heterotrophic respiration (mean of + 113 g C m-2 y@1). Moss NPP ranged from 19 to 114 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); spruce NPP from 81 to 150 g C nt-2 y,@l; spruce growth (NPP minus litterfall) from 34 to 103 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); NEE ranged from +37 to -142 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1). Values for these carbon balance terms in 1994 were slightly smaller than the 1969 - 89 means. Higher ecosystem productivity years (more negative NEE) generally had early springs and relatively wet summers; lower productivity years had late springs and relatively dry summers.

Frolking, S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Hard X-Ray Variability of the Black Hole Candidate GRO J0422+32 During its 1992 Outburst

We have studied the hard X-ray variability of the soft X-ray transient GRO J0422+32 with BATSE (Burst and Transient Source Experiment) in the 20-100 keV energy band. Our analysis covers 180 days following the first X-ray detection of the source on August 5, 1992, fully covering its primary and secondary X-ray outbursts. We compute power density spectra (PDSs) in the 20-50, 50-100, and 20-100 keV energy bands, in the frequency interval 0.002-0.488 Hz. The PDSs of GRO J0422+32 are approximately flat up to a break frequency, and decay as a power law above it, with index approximately 1. During the first 70 days of the X-ray outburst, the PDSs of GRO J0422+32 show a significant quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) peak near approximately 0.2 Hz, superposed on the power-law tail. The break frequency of the PDSs obtained during the primary X-ray outburst of GRO J0422+32 occurs at 0.041 +/- 0.006 Hz; during the secondary outburst, the break is at 0.081 +/- 0.015 Hz. The power density at the break ranged between 44% and 89% / square root of Hz (20-100 keV). The canonical anticorrelation between the break frequency and the power density at the break, observed in Cyg X-1 and other BHCs in the low state, is not observed in the PDSs of GRO J0422+32. We compare our results with those of similar variability studies of Cyg X-1. The relation between the spectral slope and the amplitude of the X-ray variations of GRO J0422+32 is similar to that of Cyg X-1; however, the relation between the hard X-ray flux and the amplitude of its variation is opposite to what has been found in Cyg X-1. Phase lags between the X-ray flux variations of GRO J0422+32 at high and low photon energies could only be derived during the first 30 days of its outburst. During this period, the variations in the 50-100 keV band lag those in the 20-50 keV energy band by an approximately constant phase difference of 0.039(3) rad in the frequency interval 0.02-0.20 Hz. The time lags of GRO J0422+32 during the first 30 days of the outburst decrease with frequency as a power law with index 0.9 for v > 0.01 Hz.

vanderHooft, F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Panel Flutter Constraints: Analytic Sensitivities and Approximations Including Planform Shape Design Variables

Analytical sensitivities of panel flutter constraints with respect to panel shape as well as thickness and material properties are derived and numerically tested. Cases of fixed in-plane loads and cases in which in-plane loads are variable (depending on panel and overall wing shape as well as material and sizing design variables) are considered. Accuracy of approximations and range of move limits required are studied in preparation for integration with nonlinear programming/approximation concept aeroelastic design synthesis methodology.

Livne, Eli↗
NASA NTRS1999

Intrinsic Variability in the Quiet-Time Magnetotail

This study investigates the evolution of the magnetotail's magnetic field with the aid of a self-consistent two-dimensional model in which the ion current periodically updates the magnetic field. The plasma mantle supplies particles continuously to the magnetotail, and the perturbation magnetic field is calculated from the ion current using the Biot-Savart law. The simulated magnetotail evolves into a quasi-steady state, characterized by the periodic motion of the near-Earth X-line in the model. This variability is caused by the nonadiabatic acceleration of ions in the current sheet and their rapid loss from the tail. Particularly noteworthy is the value found for the characteristic time scale of variability in the magnetotail. on the order of 4 - 5 minutes.

Peroomian, Vahe↗
NASA NTRS1998

Variable Complexity Structural Optimization of Shells

Structural designers today face both opportunities and challenges in a vast array of available analysis and optimization programs. Some programs such as NASTRAN, are very general, permitting the designer to model any structure, to any degree of accuracy, but often at a higher computational cost. Additionally, such general procedures often do not allow easy implementation of all constraints of interest to the designer. Other programs, based on algebraic expressions used by designers one generation ago, have limited applicability for general structures with modem materials. However, when applicable, they provide easy understanding of design decisions trade-off. Finally, designers can also use specialized programs suitable for designing efficiently a subset of structural problems. For example, PASCO and PANDA2 are panel design codes, which calculate response and estimate failure much more efficiently than general-purpose codes, but are narrowly applicable in terms of geometry and loading. Therefore, the problem of optimizing structures based on simultaneous use of several models and computer programs is a subject of considerable interest. The problem of using several levels of models in optimization has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. Work under NASA grant NAG1-1808 has been concerned with the development of variable complexity modeling strategies with special emphasis on response surface techniques. In addition several modeling issues for the design of shells of revolution were studied.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Variable Complexity Structural Optimization of Shells

Structural designers today face both opportunities and challenges in a vast array of available analysis and optimization programs. Some programs such as NASTRAN, are very general, permitting the designer to model any structure, to any degree of accuracy, but often at a higher computational cost. Additionally, such general procedures often do not allow easy implementation of all constraints of interest to the designer. Other programs, based on algebraic expressions used by designers one generation ago, have limited applicability for general structures with modem materials. However, when applicable, they provide easy understanding of design decisions trade-off. Finally, designers can also use specialized programs suitable for designing efficiently a subset of structural problems. For example, PASCO and PANDA2 are panel design codes, which calculate response and estimate failure much more efficiently than general-purpose codes, but are narrowly applicable in terms of geometry and loading. Therefore, the problem of optimizing structures based on simultaneous use of several models and computer programs is a subject of considerable interest. The problem of using several levels of models in optimization has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. Work under NASA grant NAG1-2110 has been concerned with the development of variable complexity modeling strategies with special emphasis on response surface techniques. In addition, several modeling issues for the design of shells of revolution were studied.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Long-Term Variability and Transient Behavior of some Galactic Hard X-Ray Sources as Observed with BATSE

The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) experiment on the Compton Observatory has been providing continuous, all-sky monitoring of the hard X-ray sky for over seven years. A wide variety of transient and high-variability phenomena are observed for about sixty Galactic neutron star and black hole systems. A daily sensitivity level of approximately 75 mCrab is attained for sources observed by Earth occultation in un-crowded regions and approximately 20 mCrab for pulsars with known periods. This talk will qualitatively describe the types of variability that are observed from some of the brighter sources, including their duty-cycle and the various time-scales observed. Implications for the INTEGRAL mission will be discussed.

Fishman, Gerald J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Variability and Predictability of Precipitation over Southeast Asian

The large scale atmospheric moisture budget, including precipitation, moisture flux convergence, and evaporation is described over southeast Asian. ne results are from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system for the period March 1981 - February 1995. On average, in the late spring and early summer season, precipitation is largely balanced by the atmospheric moisture flux convergence over southeast Asian; evaporation is also an important contributor. The seasonal variability of precipitation is best related to variations in the moisture flux convergence. On the monthly time scales, both the precipitable water and precipitation anomalies are most closely related to moisture flux convergence anomalies and less closely related to evaporation anomalies. The impact of the low-level jet (LLJ) on the strong low-level moisture flux convergence will be discussed. An ensemble of GEOS-2 atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulation are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of initial conditions. We also assess the variability and potential predictability from these experiments.

Chang, Yehui↗
NASA NTRS1999

Variable Complexity Optimization of Composite Structures

The use of several levels of modeling in design has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. The work under the grant focused on developing variable complexity modeling strategies with emphasis on response surface techniques. Applications included design of plates with discontinuities subject to uncertainty in material properties and geometry, design of stiffened composite plates for improved damage tolerance, and the use of response surfaces for fitting weights obtained by structural optimization.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Hard X-Ray Variability of the Black Hole Candidate GRO J0422+32 During its 1992 Outburst

We have studied the hard X-ray variability of the soft X-ray transient GRO J0422+32 with the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) in the 20-100 keV energy band. Our analysis covers 180 days following the first X-ray detection of the source on 1992 August 3, fully covering its primary and secondary X-ray outburst. We computed power density spectra (PDSS) in the 20-50, 50-100, and 20-100 keV energy bands., in the frequency interval 0.002-0.488 Hz. The PDSs of GRO J0422+32 are approximately flat up to a break frequency and decay as a power law above, with index about 1. During the first 70 days of the X-ray outburst, the PDSs of GRO J0422+32 show a significant QPO Peak near about 0.2 Hz, superposed on the power-law tail. The break frequency of the PDSs obtained during the primary X-ray outburst of GRO J0422+32 occurs at 0.041+/-0.006 Hz; during the secondary outburst the break is at 0.081q0.01.5 Hz. The power density at the break ranged between 44 and 89% Hz(exp -1/2) 20-100 keV). The canonical anticorrelation between the break frequency and the power density at the break, observed in Cyg X-1 and other BHCs in the low state, is not observed in the PDSs of GRO J0422+32. We compare our results with those of similar variability studies of Cyg X-1. The relation between the spectral slope and the amplitude of the X-ray variations of GRO J0422+32 is similar to that of Cyg X-1.

VanderHooft, F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Solar Variability in the Context of Other Climate Forcing Mechanisms

I compare and contrast climate forcings due to solar variability with climate forcings due to other mechanisms of climate change, interpretation of the role of the sun in climate change depends upon climate sensitivity and upon the net forcing by other climate change mechanisms. Among the potential indirect climate forcings due to solar variability, only that due to solar cycle induced ozone changes has been well quantified. There is evidence that the sun has been a significant player in past climate change on decadal to century time scales, and that it has the potential to contribute to climate change in the 21st century.

Hansen, James E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Interannual Variability of the Mosaic Land-Surface Model

Recently, NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) reanalysis data has been used to provide forcing for the Koster and Suarez Mosaic Land-surface Model (LSM). The LSM was integrated off-line at all global land points for the period of 1983 - 1995 by the Off-line Land- surface GEOS Assimilation system (OLGA). Here, we compare the interannual variability of OLGA, GEOS-1 and surface observing stations temperature and moisture. Particular attention is given to the United States because of the extreme seasons of 1988 and 1993. Furthermore, the comparison of OLGA is extended to include the analysis of data on the'tiles' (different surface types) in the Mosaic LSM. Results indicate that the GEOS-1 near-surface temperature and moisture reasonably represents the interannual variability in more normal years. However, OLGA also simulates the extreme drought and floods years well. The analysis of the tile information shows that the "Bare soil" surface type is most sensitive to the climate extremes. Off-line testing has provided valuable information on the performance of the Mosaic LSM prior to its incorporation into the new version of the GEOS Data Assimilation System and the integration of a new long reanalysis.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Budgets of N2O and CCl3F

The 6-year wind archives from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model (GISS/GCMAM) were in- put to the GISS/Harvard/Irvine Chemical Transport Model (G/H/I CTM) to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the budgets and distributions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CCl3F), with the corresponding chemical loss frequencies recycled and boundary conditions kept unchanged from year to year. The effects of ozone feedback and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were not included. However, the role of circulation variation in driving the lifetime variability is investigated. It was found that the global loss rates of these tracers are related to the extratropical planetary wave activity, which drives the tropical upward mass flux. For N2O, a semiannual signal in the loss rate variation is associated with the interhemispheric asymmetry in the upper stratospheric wave activity. For CCl3F, the semiannual signal is weaker, associated with the comparatively uniform wave episodes in the lower stratosphere. The loss rates lag behind the wave activity by about 1-2 months. The interannual variation of the GCM generated winds drives the interannual variation of the annually averaged lifetime. The year-to-year variations of the annually averaged lifetimes can be about 3% for N2O and 4% for CCl3F.

Wong, Sun↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Variability and Spectrum of NGC 4051 from Deep, Simultaneous EUVE and XTE Observations

We present timing and spectral analysis of the data collected by the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Satellite (EUVE) for the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4051 during 1996. NGC 4051 was observed twice in May 1996 and again in December 1996 for a total of more than 200 ksec. The observations were always simultaneous with hard X-ray observations conducted with the X-Ray Timing Explorer (XTE). The EUVE light curves are extremely variable during each observation, with the maximum variability during May 1996 when we registered changes by a factor of 21 over 8 hours and more than a factor of 24 variations from peak to minimum. We detected signal in the EUVE spectrograph in the 75-100 Arange which is well fitted by absorbed power law models. We will illustrate the results of our spectral and detailed power spectrum analysis for the simultaneous EUVE and XTE spectra and light curves and discuss the consequences on possible emission mechanisms.

Fruscione, Antonella↗
NASA NTRS1999

Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

The results obtained with the variable resolution stretched grid (SG) GEOS GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System General Circulation Models) are discussed, with the emphasis on the regional down-scaling effects and their dependence on the stretched grid design and parameters. A variable resolution SG-GCM and SG-DAS using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over an area of interest, is a viable new approach to REGIONAL and subregional CLIMATE studies and applications. The stretched grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interactions. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulations of the anomalous U.S. climate events of 1988 drought and 1993 flood, with enhanced regional resolution. The height low level jet, precipitation and other diagnostic patterns are successfully simulated and show the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest the U.S. An imitation of the nested grid approach is performed using the developed SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) that incorporates the SG-GCM. The SG-DAS is run with withholding data over the area of interest. The design immitates the nested grid framework with boundary conditions provided from analyses. No boundary condition buffer is needed for the case due to the global domain of integration used for the SG-GCM and SG-DAS. The experiments based on the newly developed versions of the GEOS SG-GCM and SG-DAS, with finer 0.5 degree (and higher) regional resolution, are briefly discussed. The major aspects of parallelization of the SG-GCM code are outlined. The KEY OBJECTIVES of the study are: 1) obtaining an efficient DOWN-SCALING over the area of interest with fine and very fine resolution; 2) providing CONSISTENT interactions between regional and global scales including the consistent representation of regional ENERGY and WATER BALANCES; 3) providing a high computational efficiency for future SG-GCM and SG-DAS versions using PARALLEL codes.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗