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NASA NTRS2002

Satellite Observation of Extremes in Precipitation

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The data sets are also explored to monitor extremes in precipitation related to localized and regional flooding and the occurrence of droughts.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Monitoring Global Precipitation Using Satellite Observations: Status and Future

The current status of monitoring global precipitation amounts and patterns is described using data sets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and from recent research satellites, especially the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The GPCP monthly (and pentad) data set is a 23-year, globally complete precipitation analysis that is used to explore global and regional variations and trends. The data set is a blend of data mainly from low-orbit microwave satellites and geosynchronous infrared satellites, with additional input from satellite sounder data, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data and raingauges. The monthly GPCP data set shows no significant global trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the 23-year data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 23-year period. This apparent trend may be a short-term variation, but also might be related to the increase with time of extreme precipitation events reported elsewhere. Patterns of precipitation variation related to ENSO and other phenomena are shown with clear signals extending from the Tropics into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. Also shown, as an example of higher time resolution data is the GPCP daily analysis, which is available for the last six years. A second focus of the talk is on TRMM precipitation data and how these newer data sets incorporating information from the first space-borne meteorological radar compare with the established GPCP data sets.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Long Data Record (1979-2003) of Stratospheric Ozone Derived from TOMS Cloud Slicing: Comparison with SAGE and Implications for Ozone Recovery

It is generally recognized that Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment (SAGE) stratospheric ozone data have become a standard long-record reference field for comparison with other stratospheric ozone measurements. This study demonstrates that stratospheric column ozone (SCO) derived from total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) Cloud Slicing may be used to supplement SAGE data as a stand-alone long- record reference field in the tropics extending to middle and high latitudes over the Pacific. Comparisons of SAGE I1 version 6.2 SCO and TOMS version 8 Cloud Slicing SCO for 1984-2003 exhibit remarkable agreement in monthly ensemble means to within 1-3 DU (1 - 1.5% of SCO) despite being independently-calibrated measurements. An important component of our study is to incorporate these column ozone measurements to investigate long-term trends for the period 1979-2003. Our study includes Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBW) version 8 measurements of upper stratospheric column ozone (i.e., zero to 32 hPa column ozone) to characterize seasonal cycles and seasonal trends in this region, as well as the lower stratosphere and troposphere when combined with TOMS SCO and total column ozone. The trend analyses suggest that most ozone reduction in the atmosphere since 1979 in mid-to-high latitudes has occurred in the Lower stratosphere below approx. 25 km. The delineation of upper and lower stratospheric column ozone indicate that trends in the upper stratosphere during the latter half of the 1979-2003 period have reduced to near zero globally, while trends in the lower stratosphere have become larger by approx. 5 DU decade%om the tropics extending to mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. For TCO, the trend analyses suggest moderate increases over the 25-year time record in the extra-tropics of both hemispheres of around 4-6 DU (Northern Hemisphere) and 6-8 DU (Southern Hemisphere).

Ziemke, Jerry R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Time-Series Analysis of Remotely-Sensed SeaWiFS Chlorophyll in River-Influenced Coastal Regions

The availability of a nearly-continuous record of remotely-sensed chlorophyll a data (chl a) from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission, now longer than ten years, enables examination of time-series trends for multiple global locations. Innovative data analysis technology available on the World Wide Web facilitates such analyses. In coastal regions influenced by river outflows, chl a is not always indicative of actual trends in phytoplankton chlorophyll due to the interference of colored dissolved organic matter and suspended sediments; significant chl a timeseries trends for coastal regions influenced by river outflows may nonetheless be indicative of important alterations of the hydrologic and coastal environment. Chl a time-series analysis of nine marine regions influenced by river outflows demonstrates the simplicity and usefulness of this technique. The analyses indicate that coastal time-series are significantly influenced by unusual flood events. Major river systems in regions with relatively low human impact did not exhibit significant trends. Most river systems with demonstrated human impact exhibited significant negative trends, with the noteworthy exception of the Pearl River in China, which has a positive trend.

Acker, James G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Vrieling, Anton↗

NASA NTRS2013

Detection of Extremes with AIRS and CrIS

Climate change is expected to be detected first as changes in extreme values rather than in mean values. The availability of data of from two instruments in the same orbit, AIRS data for the past eleven years and AIRS and CrIS data from the past year, provides an opportunity to evaluate this using examples of climate relevance: Desertification, seen as changes in hot extremes, severe storm, seen as a change in extremely cold clouds and the warming of the polar zone. We use AIRS to establish trends for the 1%tile, the mean and 99%tile brightness temperatures measured with the 900 cm(exp -1) channel from AIRS for the past 11 years. This channel is in the clearest part of the 11 micron atmospheric window. Substantial trends are seen for land and ocean, which in the case of the 1%tile (cold) extremes are related to the current shift of deep convection from ocean to land. Changes are also seen in the 99%tile for day tropical land, but their interpretation is at present unclear. We also see dramatic changes for the mean and 99%tile of the North Polar area. The trends are an order of magnitude larger than the instrument trend of about 3 mK/year. We use the statistical distribution from the past year derived from AIRS to evaluate the accuracy of continuing the trends established with AIRS with CrIS data. We minimize the concern about differences in the spectral response functions by limiting the analysis to the channel at 900 cm(exp -1).While the two instruments agree within 100 mK for the global day/night land/ocean mean values, there are significant differences when evaluating the1% and 99%tiles. We see a consistent warm bias in the CrIS data relative to AIRS for the 1%tile (extremely cold, cloudy) data in the tropical zone, particularly for tropical land, but the bias is not day/night land/ocean consistent. At this point the difference appears to be due to differences in the radiometric response of AIRS and CrIS to differences in the day/night land/ocean cloud types. Unless the effect can be mitigated by a future reprocessing the CrIS data, it will significantly complicate the concatenation of the AIRS and CrIS data records for the continuation of trends in extreme values.

sampling bias↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation During 1958-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-2 Simulations

In the framework of the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II), we present an analysis of the representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in a suite of seventeen global ocean-sea ice models. We focus on the mean, variability and trends of both the ACC and MOC over the 19582007 period, and discuss their relationship with the surface forcing. We aim to quantify the degree of eddy saturation and eddy compensation in the models participating in CORE-II, and compare our results with available observations, previous fine-resolution numerical studies and theoretical constraints. Most models show weak ACC transport sensitivity to changes in forcing during the past five decades, and they can be considered to be in an eddy saturated regime. Larger contrasts arise when considering MOC trends, with a majority of models exhibiting significant strengthening of the MOC during the late 20th and early 21st century. Only a few models show a relatively small sensitivity to forcing changes, responding with an intensified eddy-induced circulation that provides some degree of eddy compensation, while still showing considerable decadal trends. Both ACC and MOC interannual variability are largely controlled by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Based on these results, models are clustered into two groups. Models with constant or two-dimensional (horizontal) specification of the eddy-induced advection coefficient show larger ocean interior decadal trends, larger ACC transport decadal trends and no eddy compensation in the MOC. Eddy-permitting models or models with a three-dimensional time varying show smaller changes in isopycnal slopes and associated ACC trends, and partial eddy compensation. As previously argued, a constant in time or space is responsible for a poor representation of mesoscale eddy effects and cannot properly simulate the sensitivity of the ACC and MOC to changing surface forcing. Evidence is given for a larger sensitivity of the MOC as compared to the ACC transport, even when approaching eddy saturation. Future process studies designed for disentangling the role of momentum and buoyancy forcing in driving the ACC and MOC are proposed.

Southern Ocean dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2016

20 Years of ClO Measurements in the Antarctic Lower Stratosphere

We present 20 years (1996-2015) of austral springtime measurements of chlorine monoxide (ClO) over Antarctica from the Chlorine Oxide Experiment (ChlOEl) ground-based millimeter wave spectrometer at Scott Base, Antarctica, as well 12 years (2004-2015) of ClO measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). From August onwards we observe a strong increase in lower stratospheric ClO, with a peak column amount usually occurring in early September. From mid-September onwards we observe a strong decrease in ClO. In order to study interannual differences, we focus on a 3-week period from 28 August to 17 September for each year and compare the average column ClO anomalies. These column ClO anomalies are shown to be highly correlated with the average ozone mass deficit for September and October of each year. We also show that anomalies in column ClO are strongly anti-correlated with 30 hPa temperature anomalies, both on a daily and an interannual timescale. Making use of this anti-correlation we calculate the linear dependence of the interannual variations in column C1O on interannual variations in temperature. By making use of this relationship, we can better estimate the underlying trend in the total chlorine (Cl(sub y) = HCl + ClONO2 + HOCl + 2 x Cl2 + 2 x Cl2+ ClO + Cl). The resultant trends in Cl(sub y), which determine the long-term trend in ClO, are estimated to be -0.5 +/-0.2, -1.40.9, and -0.60.4% per year, for zonal MLS, Scott Base MLS (both 2004-2015), and ChlOE (1996-2015) respectively. These trends are within 1sigma of trends in stratospheric Cl(sub y) previously found at other latitudes. The decrease in ClO is consistent with the trend expected from regulations enacted under the Montreal Protocol.

temperature anomalies↗

NASA NTRS2021

A data–model approach to interpreting speleothem oxygen isotope records from monsoon regions

Reconstruction of past changes in monsoon climate from speleothem oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) records is complex because δ 18 O signals can be influenced by multiple factors including changes in precipitation, precipitation recycling over land, temperature at the moisture source, and changes in the moisture source region and transport pathway. Here, we analyse >150 speleothem records of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) database to produce composite regional trends in δ 18 O in monsoon regions; compositing minimises the influence of site-specific karst and cave processes that can influence individual site records. We compare speleothem δ 18 O observations with isotope-enabled climate model simulations to investigate the specific climatic factors causing these regional trends. We focus on differences in δ 18 O signals between the mid-Holocene, the peak of the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as on δ 18 O evolution through the Holocene. Differences in speleothem δ 18 O between the mid-Holocene and the Last Interglacial in the East Asian and Indian monsoons are small, despite the larger summer insolation values during the Last Interglacial. Last Glacial Maximum δ 18 O values are significantly less negative than interglacial values. Comparison with simulated glacial–interglacial δ 18 O shows that changes are principally driven by global shifts in temperature and regional precipitation. Holocene speleothem δ 18 O records show distinct and coherent regional trends. Trends are similar to summer insolation in India, China and southwestern South America, but they are different in the Indonesian–Australian region. Redundancy analysis shows that 37 % of Holocene variability can be accounted for by latitude and longitude, supporting the differentiation of records into individual monsoon regions. Regression analysis of simulated precipitation δ 18 O and climate variables show significant relationships between global Holocene monsoon δ 18 O trends and changes in precipitation, atmospheric circulation and (to a lesser extent) source area temperature, whereas precipitation recycling is non-significant. However, there are differences in regional-scale mechanisms: there are clear relationships between changes in precipitation and δ 18 O for India, southwestern South America and the Indonesian–Australian regions but not for the East Asian monsoon. Changes in atmospheric circulation contribute to δ 18 O trends in the East Asian, Indian and Indonesian–Australian monsoons, and a weak source area temperature effect is observed over southern and central America and Asia. Precipitation recycling is influential in southwestern South America and southern Africa. Overall, our analyses show that it is possible to differentiate the impacts of specific climatic mechanisms influencing precipitation δ 18 O and use this analysis to interpret changes in speleothem δ 18 O.

speleothem oxygen isotope records↗

NASA NTRS2021

Placing the East-West North American Aridity Gradient in a Multi-Century Context

Instrumental records indicate a century-long trend towards drying over western North America and wetting over eastern North America. A continuation of these trends into the future would have significant hydroclimatic and socioeconomic consequences in both the semi-arid Southwest and humid East. Using tree-ring reconstructions and hydrologic simulations of summer soil moisture, we evaluate and contextualize the modern summer aridity gradient within its natural range of variability established over the past 600 years and evaluate the effects of observed and anthropogenic precipitation, temperature, and humidity trends. The 2001–2020 positive (wet east-dry west) aridity gradient was larger than any 20-year period since 1400 CE, preceded by the most negative (wet west-dry east) aridity gradient during 1976-1995, leading to a strong multi-decade reversal in aridity gradient anomalies that was rivaled only by a similar event in the late-16th century. The 2001-2020 aridity gradient was dominated by long-term summer precipitation increases in the Midwest and Northeast, with smaller contributions from more warming in the West than the East and spring precipitation decreases in the Southwest. Multi-model mean climate simulations from CMIP6 experiments suggest anthropogenic climate trends should not have strongly affected the aridity gradient thus far. However, there is high uncertainty due to inter-model disagreement on anthropogenic precipitation trends. The recent strengthening of the observed aridity gradient, its increasing dependence on precipitation variability, and disagreement in modeled anthropogenic precipitation trends reveal significant uncertainties in how water resource availability will change across North America in the coming decades.

drought↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

New Global Ocean Color Sensor: OCI on PACE

- OCI will provide TOA radiances at ~1km spatial resolution, from 340nm (315nm?) to 2260nm, hyperspectral from 340nm to 890nm, 2 day global coverage - OCI will continue and enhance NASA’s earth system data records for ocean color (heritage sensors: SeaWiFS, MODIS, VIIRS) - OCI flight unit is close to being ready for testing (planned for March 2022 to September 2022) - OCI ETU (Engineering Test Unit) completed testing summer 2021, results look promising (see next presentation) - On-orbit calibration will combine successful trending approaches from previous sensors (2 solar diffusers, QVD, lunar gain trending, spectral trending) - New calibration approaches for OCI: large QVD, dim diffuser for linearity trending, lunar hysteresis trending - OCI will be characterized prelaunch with an ambitious goal of 0.5% relative uncertainty; absolute uncertainty will be about 2% (before vicarious calibration); expected on-orbit gain trending accuracy is 0.2% or better - More info on PACE and OCI can be found at https://pace.oceansciences.org/

radiometer↗

NASA NTRS2024

Sun-as-a-Star Spectral Line Variability in the 300–2390 nm Wavelength Range

Combining the near-daily Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) measurements of solar spectra, we construct line indices (line-core to line-flanks ratios) for various transitions (mainly Fe I) in the 300–2390 nm spectral domain. The indices are supplemented by the wavelength-binned fluxes from OMI and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS-1). To study the short-term (solar-rotational) patterns, we normalize the indices and fluxes to the minimum-activity epoch, then de-trend them with 81 day running means. Comparisons of the de-trended TSIS-1 and OMI fluxes with the NASA-NOAA-LASP SSI (NNLSSI1) model show excellent agreement, to (0.5–2.2) × 10 -4 in the normalized and de-trended data. The data are subjected to a multiregression analysis against quantities representing the facular brightening and the sunspot darkening. The de-trended line indices and average fluxes show different sensitivities to these two solar magnetic-activity manifestations, with the fluxes being far more susceptible to the sunspot component. The de-trended line indices experience a rapid drop of activity levels towards longer wavelengths, albeit with a large rebound in the short-wave infrared (SWIR) domain that is caused by the ubiquitous, temperature-sensitive CO transitions. The wavelength-dependent activity also falls, however much slower, in the de-trended average fluxes. Qualitatively similar behavior is captured by semiempirical models.

Solar spectral Irradiance↗

NASA NTRS2014

Multi-Decadal Aerosol Variations from 1980 to 2009: A Perspective from Observations and a Global Model

Aerosol variations and trends over different land and ocean regions during 1980-2009 are analyzed with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and observations from multiple satellite sensors and ground-based networks. Excluding time periods with large volcanic influences, the tendency of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface concentration over polluted land regions is consistent with the anthropogenic emission changes.The largest reduction occurs over Europe, and regions in North America and Russia also exhibit reductions. On the other hand, East Asia and South Asia show AOD increases, although relatively large amount of natural aerosols in Asia makes the total changes less directly connected to the pollutant emission trends. Over major dust source regions, model analysis indicates that the dust emissions over the Sahara and Sahel respond mainly to the near-surface wind speed, but over Central Asia they are largely influenced by ground wetness. The decreasing dust trend in the tropical North Atlantic is most closely associated with the decrease of Sahel dust emission and increase of precipitation over the tropical North Atlantic, likely driven by the sea surface temperature increase. Despite significant regional trends, the model-calculated global annual average AOD shows little changes over land and ocean in the past three decades, because opposite trends in different regions cancel each other in the global average. This highlights the need for regional-scale aerosol assessment, as the global average value conceals regional changes, and thus is not sufficient for assessing changes in aerosol loading.

atmopheric aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2018

Global Changes in the Diurnal Cycle of Surface Ozone

Changing emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors drive trends in both production and loss of surface ozone, leading to surface ozone trends that differ according to the time of day. Consequently, the magnitude of the diurnal cycle in surface ozone is changing in several regions of the world. Changes in the diurnal cycle of ozone have implications for the metrics used to assess the impact of ozone on human health and vegetation, since different metrics are sensitive to different portions of the diurnal cycle. We use a high resolution model simulation to examine global changes in the magnitude of the diurnal cycle of O3 between 1980 and 2015. The simulation reproduces the negative trends in the tropospheric NO2 column over the eastern United States and Europe, and the positive trends over East Asia, seen by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). It also gives a reasonable reproduction of the change in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone seen at rural sites in the eastern United States between the 1990s and 2000s. The simulation shows that the magnitude of the surface O3 diurnal cycle is increasing in regions with positive changes in NOx emissions, such as South and East Asia, and decreasing in regions with reductions in NOx emissions. It also shows changes in the diurnal cycle of the tropospheric ozone column, although these have fewer regions with statistically significant trends. These changes suggest that daily mean ozone is responding less than the mid-day ozone measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and OMI.

Trends↗

NASA NTRS1972

Identification of geostructures of continental crust particularly as they relate to mineral resource evaluation

The author has identified the following significant results. Lakes in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska are dominantly elongate, with their long axes parallel and trending about N 9 W. On ERTS-1 imagery, an additional strong east-trending regional lineation, not previously recognized on aerial photographs or in field study, was noted. In addition, the alignment of many small lakes forms a large and a small ellipse superimposed on the regional lineation. Fischer and Lathram find that the trend of this lineation is parallel to the trend of deflections in contours of the magnetic and gravity fields in the area, and parallel to westerly deflections in the northwest ends of northwest-trending folds mapped to the south. These data suggest that heretofore unsuspected structures may be concealed beneath Quaternary mantling sediments in the area of the image. The strata in these folds would be younger than those tapped by the oil wells of the Umiat field to the south, and favorable sandstone facies may occur in the area. The significance of these observations to oil exploration in northern Alaska needs to be evaluated further.

Gryc, G.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Fault tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS and Skylab images reveal a number of prominent lineaments in the basement terrane of the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California. The major, well-known, active, northwest trending, right-slip faults are well displayed, but northeast and west to west-northwest trending lineaments are also present. Study of large-scale airphotos followed by field investigations have shown that several of these lineaments represent previously unmapped faults. Pitches of striations on shear surfaces of the northeast and west trending faults indicate oblique-slip movement; data are insufficient to determine the net-slip. These faults are restricted to the pre-Tertiary basement terrane and are truncated by the major northwest trending faults; therefore, they may have formed in response to an earlier stress system. Future work should be directed toward determining whether the northeast and west trending faults are related to the presently active stress system or to an older inactive system, because this question relates to the earthquake risk in the vicinity of these faults.

Merifield, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Block V module program

An outlined overview of this module program is given. Tables are given for the following characteristics: module power trend, packing factor trend, cell and circuit characteristics, module physical characteristics, electrical performance, cell efficiency trend, module efficiency trend and module cost trend. The principal improvements are larger modules and higher performance.

Smokler, M. I.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Wintertime losses of ozone in high northern latitudes

Total column ozone data over the past 22 to 30 years from ground-based Dobson and filter ozonometer stations between 30 N and 80 N are analyzed for residual trends remaining after allowance for the known geophysical variations corresponding to: (1) the change of seasons; (2) the quasi-biennial oscillation; and (3) the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Examination of the data from several ground stations between 45 and 55 N indicated a seasonal difference in the long-term ozone series, with statistically significant losses in several winter months. Accordingly, the data from individual stations were analyzed with multiple regression analysis, seeking trends on a monthly basis after allowance for the known geophysical cycles. Previous statistical analyses were conducted as tests of 1-D model calculations which do not show any differences with the seasons, and any trend toward change in ozone concentrations is expressed in a yearly trend without seasonal variation. Such a model is inappropriate for calculations with a data set which exhibits a pronounced tendency toward seasonal differences in the trends. Comparisons with model calculations then require 2-D models into which seasonal and latitudinal differences can easily be programmed.

Harris, Neil↗