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DOE OSTI2026

Structure preservation using discrete gradients in the Vlasov-Poisson-Landau system

We present a novel structure-preserving framework for solving the Vlasov-Poisson-Landau system of equations using a particle in cell (PIC) discretization combined with discrete gradient time integrators. The Vlasov-Poisson-Landau system is an accurate model for studying hot plasma dynamics at a kinetic scale where small-angle Coulomb collisions dominate. Our scheme guarantees conservation of mass, momentum and energy as well as preservation of the monotonicity of entropy production in both the time-continuous and discrete systems. We employ the conservative integrator for both the Hamiltonian Vlasov-Poisson equations and the dissipative Landau equation using the PETSc library (www.mcs.anl.gov/petsc) to showcase structure-preserving properties.

Discrete gradients↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

There is rising interest in probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risks from solar power uncertainty, but the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles readily available to system operators are often biased and underdispersed. We propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) post-processing method suitable for forecasting power from utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants at multiple time horizons up to at least the day-ahead timescale. BMA is a kernel dressing technique for NWP ensembles in which the forecast is a weighted sum of member-specific probability density functions. We tailor BMA for utility-scale PV forecasting by modeling power clipping at the AC inverter rating and advance the theory of BMA with a new beta kernel parameterization that accommodates theoretical constraints not previously addressed. BMA is demonstrated for a case study of 11 utility-scale PV plants in Texas, forecasting at hourly resolution for the complete year 2018. BMA's mixture-model approach mitigates underdispersion of the raw ensemble to significantly improve forecast calibration, while consistently outperforming an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) parametric approach from the literature. At 4-hour lead time, the BMA post-processing achieves continuous ranked probability skill scores of 2--36% over the raw ensemble, with consistent performance at multiple lead times suitable for power system operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Artificial Intelligence for Particle Reconstruction and Higgs Physics

With the discovery of the Higgs boson at the CERN LHC, the world's highest-energy particle accelerator complex, scientists have acquired an important tool to study the fundamental building blocks of the universe. Precision measurements of Higgs bosons produced with large momentum allow for unique insights into the structure of the interactions of the Higgs boson with other particles that may shed light on physics beyond the standard model. While experimentally challenging, exploring such interactions with novel artificial intelligence (AI) methods can advance our understanding of the Higgs sector, including the Higgs boson's self-interaction. Moreover, the LHC is undergoing a major upgrade to further increase its particle collision rate and thereby operate for an additional decade. The experimental detectors at the upgraded facility must process at least a factor of ten more data at rates of hundreds of terabytes per second all under challenging conditions. New AI techniques are required to reconstruct and select, or trigger on, the most physics-sensitive events in real-time to handle the resulting avalanche of data. The proposed research will achieve the goals of the LHC program at the CMS experiment by developing a sub-microsecond event reconstruction system using real-time AI algorithms that employ field-programmable gate array technologies. By harnessing sophisticated AI techniques, this research focuses on measuring the production of Higgs bosons at large momentum while enhancing particle reconstruction methods in the trigger and beyond. Overall, the proposed research has broader implications for the use of AI in resource-constrained, low-latency embedded applications across all fields of science.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Observations of gas-phase products from the nitrate-radical-initiated oxidation of four monoterpenes

Abstract. Chemical ionization mass spectrometry with the nitrate reagent ion (NO3- CIMS) was used to investigate the products of the nitrate radical (NO3) initiated oxidation of four monoterpenes in laboratory chamber experiments. α-Pinene, β-pinene, Δ-3-carene, and α-thujene were studied. The major gas-phase species produced in each system were distinctly different, showing the effect of monoterpene structure on the oxidation mechanism and further elucidating the contributions of these species to particle formation and growth. By comparing groupings of products based on the ratios of elements in the general formula CwHxNyOz, the relative importance of specific mechanistic pathways (fragmentation, termination, and radical rearrangement) can be assessed for each system. Additionally, the measured time series of the highly oxidized reaction products provide insights into the ratio of relative production and loss rates of the high-molecular-weight products of the Δ-3-carene system. The measured effective O:C ratios of reaction products were anticorrelated with new particle formation intensity and number concentration for each system; however, the monomer : dimer ratios of products had a small positive trend. Gas-phase yields of oxidation products measured by NO3- CIMS correlated with particle number concentrations for each monoterpene system, with the exception of α-thujene, which produced a considerable amount of low-volatility products but no particles. Species-resolved wall loss was measured with NO3- CIMS and found to be highly variable among oxidized reaction products in our stainless steel chamber.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid-Learning Algorithm for Online Dynamic State Estimation in Multimachine Power Systems

With the increasing penetration of distributed generators in the smart grids, having knowledge of rapid real-time electromechanical dynamic states has become crucial to system stability control. Conventional Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA)-based dynamic state estimation (DSE) techniques are limited by the slow sampling rates, while the emerging phasor measurement units (PMUs) technology enables rapid real-time measurements at network nodes. Using generator bus terminal voltages, we propose a hybrid-learning DSE (HL-DSE) algorithm to estimate the synchronous machine rotor angle and speed in real time. The HL-DSE takes the power system model into account and trains neuroestimators with real-time data in an online manner. Compared with traditional DSE methods, the HL-DSE overcomes limitations by using a data-driven approach in conjunction with the physical power system model. The time efficiency, accuracy, convergence, and robustness of the proposed algorithm are tested under noises and fault conditions in both small- and large-scale test systems. Simulation results show that the proposed HL-DSE is much more computationally efficient than widely used Kalman filter (KF)-based methods while maintaining comparable accuracy and robustness. In particular, HL-DSE is over 100 times faster than square-root unscented KF (SR-UKF) and 80 times faster than extended KF (EKF). The advantages and challenges of the HL-DSE are also discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Low Regeneration Temperature Sorbents for Direct Air Capture of CO 2

Susteon Inc., in partnership with University of Wyoming and SoCalGas, successfully met all major technical objectives to (1) scale up the ionic liquid catalyst for amine-based sorbents for improved desorption and absorption kinetics, (2) evaluate the catalyzed amine-based sorbents for direct CO 2 capture process to determine CO 2 adsorption and desorption rates and energy requirements, and (3) based on the experimental results, develop a conceptual process design to perform a preliminary economic assessment to evaluate the potential for DAC process cost reduction using the catalyzed sorbents. Amine doped solid sorbents are effective for DAC applications and can be regenerated by heat or by a combination of heat, steam, and vacuum. The best sorbent composition identified was polyethyleneimine (PEI) on fumed silica with 200 ppm ionic liquid catalyst. This sorbent formulation was shown to have a CO 2 breakthrough capacity twice that of the non-catalyzed sorbent, in laboratory tests with air at 75% relative humidity (RH). The CO 2 adsorption rate was also 40% higher than that of the non-catalyzed sorbent. This type of sorbents has the attributes required for lowering the overall cost of DAC with high CO 2 capacity and high rate of adsorption. The combination of an industrially utilized amine-based sorbent with a highly active catalyst to form a new class of materials for DAC provides a technically viable pathway for reducing the cost of DAC to <$100/tonne of CO 2 . Laboratory measurements show that the silica/PEI (polyethyleneimine) sorbents with 100 ppm of ionic liquid catalyst have almost 100% higher CO 2 cyclic capacity and 40% higher adsorption rate. Generally, CO 2 desorption occurred at higher temperatures with a rate of desorption 10 times faster than adsorption (which occurred at ambient conditions). Therefore, adsorption rate is a much more important factor in the cost of DAC because it is directly linked to the CAPEX of the total system and the cycle time (i.e., sorbent productivity in ton/day of CO 2 captured per unit volume of the air contactor). An initial process design, coupled with techno-economic analysis, based on optimal experimental results and preliminary resulting from structured sorbent testing, showed a path to lower the DAC cost from the current cost of over $200/tonne CO 2 to less than $100/tonne with a scale-up, mature state of the technology, with projected material and process improvements. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the catalyst in silica/PEI sorbents in enhancing sorbents’ CO 2 working capacity, in (a) increasing the rate of adsorption and desorption, and (b) in lowering the CAPEX and OPEX of the DAC system employing the ionic liquid catalyzed sorbents.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cave-based chronology of valley incision in the glaciated Northern Carpathians

While glaciers leave a mark on mountain landscapes, the importance of glacial erosion in mountains at a global scale remains insufficiently constrained despite over a century of research aimed at quantifying the rates and magnitudes of such erosion. Measuring rates of landscape change across the Quaternary in repeatedly glaciated mountain landscapes requires the ability to accurately partition the relative role of glacial versus fluvial processes in forming relief; however, the modification of landforms by surface erosion hinders quantification of process rates over the last few million years. This study presents 32 paired 26 Al and 10 Be cosmogenic nuclide burial ages from allochthonous, quartz-bearing sediment deposited within a paleophreatic karst system in the northern Carpathians. These data quantify Pliocene-to-present timing of valley incision and karst system reactivation, as well as erosion rates over time. Post-burial, muon production-correction yields 24 fully resolved ages, six minimum ages, and two unresolvable ages. Burial ages are interpreted to document the tempo of valley incision via phreatic passage formation and reveal that ∼80% of current valley relief (∼700 m) had developed by approximately 1.6 Ma. Paleoerosion rates derived from this dataset suggest little change in the processes generating sediment washed into the karst networks since the Pliocene. These results suggest that river incision dominated relief creation in Carpathian valleys that bear the imprint of glaciation. Our findings suggest the importance of investigating other mid-latitude mountainous regions worldwide to determine if they have similar erosion and topographic histories.

Carpathians↗

DOE OSTI2020

TEAM project review, year 1

This note summarizes our research activities within the TEAM project between October 2019 and November 2020, funded by the ASCR Advanced Research in Quantum Computing program. Three research efforts have begun during the review period. The first effort, resulting in the JuQBox software, implemented a novel algorithm for optimal control in closed quantum systems based on symplectic time integration and exact calculations of the gradient of the discretized objective function. In our second effort, resulting in a code called Quandary, we consider the optimal control problem for open quantum systems. Here the evolution of the quantum system is modeled by the Lindblad master equation. In this code, we are considering both the realization of quantum gates as well as the optimal reset problem in which a general mixed quantum state is driven towards its ground state. In our third research effort we have begun the development of computational software for what we call Lindblad learning, i.e. the process of characterizing the equations governing our quantum computing hardware.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Strategic Research and Development Insights for Digital Twins

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is pleased to provide our response to the NITRD RFI on Digital Twins Research and Development. Digital twins are virtual representations of physical systems, leveraging real-time data to simulate and predict behaviors. ORNL is advancing digital twin technology across various disciplines, including neutron scattering, networking, science ecosystems, supercomputing, secure facilities, mobility technologies, materials design and discovery, power systems, fusion reactors, biological sciences, and earth observation. These efforts aim to enhance scientific research, operational efficiency, and decision-making processes. ORNL facilities, such as the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), Grid-C, Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), and Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF), provide the infrastructure to develop and demonstrate these digital twin technologies. In this document, we lay out key challenges, research gaps, and future opportunities based on our experience with digital twins that aim to serve as useful contributions towards a National Digital Twins R&D Strategic Plan. In the remaining document, we address nine of the thirteen topic areas specified in the RFI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Studies on the scintillation light detection in the ProtoDUNE Dual Phase liquid-argon TPC and its capability for the supernova trigger in DUNE

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that aims at addressing key questions in neutrino physics in the next decades. Its scientific program includes the detection of the neutrino flux from a core-collapse supernova. The DUNE far detector will have four 17-kt mass liquid-argon (LAr) time-projection chamber (TPC) modules. ProtoDUNE Dual Phase (DP), a dual-phase LAr TPC with 300 t of active mass and 6 m of drift distance, was operated with cosmic muons in 2019-2020 as part of an R&D program at the CERN Neutrino Platform to demonstrate the feasibility of the technology at such a large scale. In a LAr TPC, the photon detection system (PDS) provides fundamental timing information and trigger capabilities. The PDS of ProtoDUNE-DP, which consisted of 36 photomultiplier tubes (PMTs), counted on a dedicated light calibration system (LCS) to monitor the PMT response. In this dissertation, the characterization and validation of the ProtoDUNE-DP PDS and LCS components before their installation will be reviewed, highlighting the results of general interest for experiments that use liquid noble gasses as target medium. The results from the stable performance of both systems in the detector during 15 months will be presented next as well as the studies on the scintillation light detection in ProtoDUNE-DP, where the collection of light produced in LAr at 7 m from the photosensors has been achieved for the first time. It is worth pointing out that the excellent LAr purity and the large size of the detector have enabled to develop a unique data-driven investigation on aspects that are critical for LAr-based experiments but that are not completely understood. The analyses cover the characterization of the low-energy background detected by the PDS, the quantification of the electric field impact on the light yield, the evaluation of the Rayleigh scattering affecting the light propagation, and the analysis of the PMT detection efficiency. The effect of the VUV reflectivity of the detector materials will be also discussed. In addition, the estimation of the cosmic muon flux crossing the TPC and the study of the observed light yield by the PDS will be reported. Finally, the results from the simulation-based study of the supernova burst trigger capability with the PDS of a 12.1-kt active mass dual-phase LAr TPC as the one proposed for DUNE will be summarized. Several configurations of reflective foils installed in the TPC to enhance the light collection will be compared.

Gallego Ros, Ana↗

DOE OSTI2022

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Pilot Demonstration of an Attestation and Anomaly Detection Framework using Distributed Ledger Technology for Power Grid Infrastructure

This report summarizes the design and pilot demonstration of a framework called Grid Guard that was created to provide increased data and device trustworthiness to electric grid devices by leveraging distributed ledger technology (DLT), specifically blockchain. Grid Guard contains a combination of core cryptographic methods such as the secure hash algorithm (SHA), and asymmetric cryptography, private permissioned blockchain, baselining configuration data, consensus algorithm (Raft) and the Hyperledger Fabric (HLF) framework. The system implements a low energy, fast, and robust enhancement to system trustworthiness within and across electric grid systems such as substations, control centers and metering infrastructures. Blockchain is a distributed database structured that provides a practically unalterable (immutable) timeline of stored transactions. By relying on hashing and the Raft consensus algorithm, if an entity tries to illegitimately alter a record at one instance of the database the other ledger nodes are not altered. They work to cross-reference each other and easily locate any incorrectly added data and remove it. The bulk raw data is stored in an off-chain storage (outside of the blockchain ledger) and a hash of this baseline data is stored in the Blockchain ledger via hashing windows of time-series and configuration data, after aggregation and filtering. The bulk off-chain data repository is then considered to be trust-anchored using the hashes stored in the blockchain. To secure the electric grid testbed devices and data, device configuration baselines were compared to those baselines that had been previously stored in the ledger. Statistical baselines for device configurations, network communication patterns, and high-speed sensor data are calculated and then stored off-chain and hashes stored in the ledger. Measurements such as three-phase voltage and current, frequency, breaker status, protection scheme settings, network configuration settings (and other device configuration artifacts) and network traffic features (packet interarrival times) are compared every minute or other selected time windows. During phase 1 of the Grid Guard DLT project different DLT technologies were studies, and an assessment was performed on DLT technology vulnerabilities, uses, and key characteristics. DLT consensus protocols were studies (e.g., RAFT, named after Reliable, Replicated, Redundant, And Fault-Tolerant). Also, cryptography, public, private and permissioned or permissionless systems were assessed. Grid Guard implements a permissioned private DLT. Consensus algorithm selection and choice of DLT implementation depended heavily on the use-case. For this use-case, parameters were selected to measure performance and existing tools for assessment. Benchmarking was performed theoretically and practically. During phase 2 hashed transactions/blocks were inserted into the ledger every second. During phase 2 of the Grid Guard DLT project, a prototype framework was developed and demonstrated for attestation of critical substation devices and data using precision timing systems that use PTP and IRIG-B protocols) on a testbed of operational devices that emulated a distribution substation, control center, and power metering infrastructure using real Operational Technology (OT). The testbed includes OT devices such as protective relays, human machine interfaces (HMI), and power meters. To determine when to collect and compare system and network baselines, an initial examination of an anomaly detection capability to identify malicious manipulation of data streams was conducted. The resulting anomaly detection was demonstrated in a set of experiments and leveraged to trigger device artifact attestation checks. Attestation checks occur against device configuration baselines when compared with the immutable blockchain-stored baselines, which provided a cryptographically supported means by which to store baselines. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created to test the Grid Guard framework. The testbed emulates the operations of a portion of a power grid and SCADA systems as closely as possible. The testbed integrates real protocols, mainly IEC 61850 standard protocols, such as the Sampled Value (SV) and the GOOSE protocols. The testbed also supports DNP3 and other layer 2 and layer 3 protocols such as Telnet, SSH, SFTP/FTP and other proprietary protocols needed to connect to industrial control system equipment. The testbed emulates real power conditions using the OpalRT hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) device which can create fault situations that cannot be easily tested on real systems. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created using real measurement, communication, and protection devices that electrical utilities commonly use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance and long-term stability of the ICARUS-T600 scintillation light detection system

The ICARUS-T600 Liquid Argon (LAr) Time Projection Chamber (TPC) is presently used as a far detector of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab (USA) to search for a possible LSND-like sterile neutrino signal at $\Delta m^2 \sim 1 eV^2$ with the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB). A light detection system, based on 360 large area Photo-Multiplier Tubes (PMTs), has been realized for ICARUS-T600 to detect VUV photons produced after the passage of ionizing particles in LAr. This system is fundamental for the TPC operation, providing an efficient trigger and contributing to the 3D reconstruction of events. Moreover, since the detector is exposed to a huge flux of cosmic rays due to its shallow depths operations, the light detection system allows for the time reconstruction of events, contributing to the identification and to the selection of neutrino interactions within the BNB spill gate. Long-term behavior of PMT gains and timing resolution, demonstrate the robustness and reliability of the ICARUS scintillation light detection system and provide valuable input for the design and operation of future large-scale liquid argon detectors.

Raselli, Gian Luca [INFN, Perugia] (ORCID:00000002↗

DOE OSTI2019

Microwave Multiplexing on the Keck Array

In this paper, we describe an on-sky demonstration of a microwave-multiplexing readout system in one of the receivers of the Keck Array, a polarimetry experiment observing the cosmic microwave background at the South Pole. During the austral summer of 2018–2019, we replaced the time-division multiplexing readout system with microwave-multiplexing components including superconducting microwave resonators coupled to radio frequency superconducting quantum interference devices at the sub-Kelvin focal plane, coaxial-cable plumbing and amplification between room temperature and the cold stages, and a SLAC Microresonator Radio Frequency system for the warm electronics. In the range 5–6 GHz, a single coaxial cable reads out 528 channels. The readout system is coupled to transition-edge sensors, which are in turn coupled to 150-GHz slot-dipole phased-array antennas. Observations began in April 2019, and we report here on an initial characterization of the system performance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Chapter 9: Impact of Variable Renewable Energy Sources on Bulk Power System Planning and Operations

Wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) have experienced remarkable growth in recent years, with many consequent benefits within and outside of power systems. At the same time, wind and solar PV have unique characteristics relative to the historically dominant dispatchable technologies like coal, gas, and nuclear power plants that have required and will continue to require changes in power system planning and operations. This chapter discusses planning and operational challenges of integrating wind and solar PV into bulk power systems. We first present the key characteristics of wind and solar PV that differentiate it from conventional technologies, such as variable and uncertain electricity generation, asynchronous interconnection to the power system, and near-zero marginal costs. We then link these characteristics to power system planning and operational challenges at low through high wind and solar penetrations. Finally, we discuss near- and long-term solutions to those challenges, such as diversifying the generation mix and wind and solar fleets, improving system flexibility, diversifying ancillary service products, and integrating generation and transmission planning.

bulk power system↗

DOE OSTI2021

mystic : software for autonomous discovery and design under uncertainty

Throughout the diverse range of science and engineering applications, there is a growing desire to develop computational methods that can reliably predict the behavior of complex systems. Specifically, there is a strategic need for tools that can robustly forecast the behavior of complex physical systems, where data may be high-dimensional, noisy, or sparse, and models of the system may be time-dependent or include uncertainty. We use mystic to build tools that leverage statistical learning, physics-informed learning, and active learning in the efficient generation of reliably predictive surrogates for complex physical systems. mystic is a robust, proven, open-source optimization and uncertainty quantification toolkit with over a decade of use in the design and optimization of neutron instrumentation, solar-powered drones, and gasguns, and in iterative tuning of models for Raman spectroscopy and elastoplastic materials strength. Recent developments have focused on automated learning of statistically robust surrogates under uncertainty, with applications in materials in extreme environments, nanostructures, materials simulations and strength models, and the failure of shielding under particle radiation. In 2020, McKerns demonstrated active learning of optimally robust surrogates with respect to new simulated data for molecular dynamics simulations of materials mixing in warm dense matter, and is currently applying active learning to the automated steering of particle accelerator beams and the optimal design and control of quantum optical sensor instrumentation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nonlocal and nonadiabatic Pauli potential for time-dependent orbital-free density functional theory

Time-dependent orbital-free density functional theory is an efficient ab initio method for calculating the electronic dynamics of large systems. In comparison to standard time-dependent density functional theory, it computes only a single electronic state regardless of system size, but it requires an additional time-dependent Pauli potential term. Herein we propose a nonadiabatic and nonlocal Pauli potential whose main ingredients are the time-dependent particle and current densities. Our calculations of the optical spectra of metallic and semiconductor clusters indicate that nonlocal and nonadiabatic time-dependent orbital-free density functional theory performs accurately for metallic systems and semiquantitatively for semiconductors. This paper opens the door to wide applicability of time-dependent orbital-free density functional theory for nonequilibrium electron and electron-nuclear dynamics of complex materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

thornado-transport: Anderson- and GPU-accelerated nonlinear solvers for neutrino-matter coupling

Algorithms for neutrino-matter coupling in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) are investigated in the context of a spectral two-moment model, which is discretized in space with the discontinuous Galerkin method, integrated in time with implicit-explicit (IMEX) methods, and implemented in the toolkit for high-order neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics (thornado). The model considers electron neutrinos and antineutrinos and tabulated opacities from Bruenn (1985), which includes neutrino-electron scattering and pair processes. The nonlinear system arising from implicit time discretization of the equations governing neutrino-matter coupling is iterated to convergence using Anderson-accelerated fixed-point methods, which avoid formation of Jacobians and inversion of dense linear systems. Numerical experiments show that, for a given tolerance, a nested iteration scheme which aims to reduce opacity evaluations can lower the computational cost. Our initial port to GPUs, using both OpenMP and OpenACC, shows an overall speedup of up to ~ 100× when compared to results using a single CPU core. These results indicate that the algorithms implemented in thornado are well-suited to GPU acceleration.

Laiu, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2020

Forward modeling of Doppler velocity interferometer system for improved shockwave measurements

We report that when near-instantaneous shocks are recorded by using a Doppler velocity interferometer velocity interferometer system for any reflector (VISAR), they typically exceed the detector’s ability to react and “skipped fringes” result, where its visibility briefly reduces. Traditionally, replacing skipped fringes required guesswork in analysis, which increased arrival time errors. Second, the use of long but velocity-sensitive interferometer delays with fast detectors which can resolve the delay has traditionally been avoided because of the fear of confusing the arrival time signal. However, shorter delays produce smaller fringe phase shifts per velocity and, thus, can decrease velocity precision. We realize that while some loss of fringe information occurs at shock events, this is often just a partial loss and the residual fringe information can still hold valuable information. We describe a forward model (FM) of the interferometer action and detector blurring that assists with VISAR fringe analysis at skipping events: (1) more precise shock arrival times, (2) arrival time precision not limited by long delays, and (3) improved ghost subtraction, which improves accuracy over a broad time region. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility of a FM on National Ignition Facility and Laboratory for Laser Energetics Omega shots and discuss data process methods to increase the high time resolution of VISAR systems despite their limitations and complexities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗