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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Quantifying CanESM5 and EAMv1 sensitivities to Mt. Pinatubo volcanic forcing for the CMIP6 historical experiment

Large volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere have caused marked perturbations to the global climate including cooling at the Earth's surface, changes in large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns and marked temporary reductions in global ocean heat content. Many studies have investigated these effects using climate models; however, uncertainties remain in the modelled response to these eruptions. This is due in part to the diversity of forcing datasets that are used to prescribe the distribution of stratospheric aerosols resulting from these volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in optical property derivations from these datasets. To improve this situation for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a two-step process was undertaken. First, a combined stratospheric aerosol dataset, the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC; 1979–2016), was constructed. Next, GloSSAC, along with information from ice cores and Sun photometers, was used to generate aerosol distributions, characteristics and optical properties to construct a more consistent stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset for models participating in CMIP6. This “version 3” of the stratospheric aerosol forcing has been endorsed for use in all contributing CMIP6 simulations. Recent updates to the underlying GloSSAC from version 1 to version 1.1 affected the 1991–1994 period and necessitated an update to the stratospheric aerosol forcing from version 3 to version 4. As version 3 remains the official CMIP6 input, quantification of the impact on radiative forcing and climate is both relevant and timely for interpreting results from experiments such as the CMIP6 historical simulations. This study uses two models, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1), to estimate the difference in instantaneous radiative forcing in simulated post-Pinatubo climate response when using version 4 instead of version 3. Differences in temperature, precipitation and radiative forcings are generally found to be small compared to internal variability. An exception to this is differences in monthly temperature anomalies near 24 km altitude in the tropics, which can be as large as 3 °C following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh

Abstract. Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as a result of elevated sea level, high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth system models (ESMs), partly due to model mesh deficiency and oversimplifications of river hydrodynamics. Using two mid-Atlantic river basins as a testbed, we perform the first attempt to simulate the backwater effects comprehensively over a coastal region using the MOSART river transport model under an ESM framework, i.e., Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) configured on a regionally refined unstructured mesh, with a focus on understanding the backwater drivers and their long-term variations. By including sea level variations at the river downstream boundary, the model performance in capturing backwaters is greatly improved. We also propose a new flood event selection scheme to facilitate the decomposition of backwater drivers into different components. Our results show that while storm surge is a key driver, the influence of extreme discharge cannot be neglected, particularly when the river drains to a narrow river-like estuary. Compound flooding, while not necessarily increasing the flood peaks, exacerbates the flood risk by extending the duration of multiple coastal and fluvial processes. Furthermore, our simulations and analysis highlight the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge during 1990–2019. Thus, backwaters need to be properly represented in ESMs to improve the predictive understanding of coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance and Accuracy Implications of Parallel Split Physics-Dynamics Coupling in the Energy Exascale Earth System Atmosphere Model

Simultaneous calculation of atmospheric processes is faster than calculating processes one at a time. This type of parallelism is beneficial or perhaps even necessary to provide good performance on modern supercomputers, which achieve faster performance through increased processor count rather than improved clock speed. The scalability of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (EAM) is limited by the fluid dynamics which scales up to the number of mesh cells in the global mesh. In contrast, the suite of physics parameterizations in EAM is scalable up to the total number of physics columns, which is an order of magnitude greater than the number of mesh cells. A proposed solution to unlocking the greater potential performance from the physics suite is to solve the physics and dynamics in parallel. This work represents a first attempt at parallel splitting of the grid-scale fluid dynamics model and the subgrid-scale physics parameterizations in a global atmosphere model. We will demonstrate that switching to parallel physics-dynamics coupling extends the scalability of the EAM to up to 3 times the previous peak scalability limit and is up to 20% faster than the sequentially split coupling at the highest core counts and the same time step. Decadal simulations of both coupling approaches show very little impact to the model climate. This improved performance does not come without drawbacks, however. Parallel splitting requires a shorter time step and other modifications which largely offset performance gains. A mass fixer is required for conservation. Techniques for mitigating these issues are also discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A trajectory generation and system characterization model for cislunar low-thrust spacecraft. Volume 2: Technical manual

The documentation of the Trajectory Generation and System Characterization Model for the Cislunar Low-Thrust Spacecraft is presented in Technical and User's Manuals. The system characteristics and trajectories of low thrust nuclear electric propulsion spacecraft can be generated through the use of multiple system technology models coupled with a high fidelity trajectory generation routine. The Earth to Moon trajectories utilize near Earth orbital plane alignment, midcourse control dependent upon the spacecraft's Jacobian constant, and capture to target orbit utilizing velocity matching algorithms. The trajectory generation is performed in a perturbed two-body equinoctial formulation and the restricted three-body formulation. A single control is determined by the user for the interactive midcourse portion of the trajectory. The full spacecraft system characteristics and trajectory are provided as output.

Korsmeyer, David J.↗

The RAPT control method for nonlinear systems

The Rapid Advancement Preview Tracking (RAPT) control method uses both a nonlinear system model and a linearized system model to provide a form of feedback/preview control for nonlinear systems. It uses measurements of the states to calculate the current preview control signal from a local linearization of the state equations, and then iteratively calculates a perturbation correction for that control using the nonlinear equations. The corrected control signal is then applied to the system, driving the end-effector to the next position along a specified trajectory. Computer simulations of tracking control for two-link planar manipulators indicate that this algorithm may be fast enough for real-time control.

Long, T. W.↗

Mathematical Modeling of Ni/H2 and Li-Ion Batteries

The modelling effort outlined in this viewgraph presentation encompasses the following topics: 1) Electrochemical Deposition of Nickel Hydroxide; 2) Deposition rates of thin films; 3) Impregnation of porous electrodes; 4) Experimental Characterization of Nickel Hydroxide; 5) Diffusion coefficients of protons; 6) Self-discharge rates (i.e., oxygen-evolution kinetics); 7) Hysteresis between charge and discharge; 8) Capacity loss on cycling; 9) Experimental Verification of the Ni/H2 Battery Model; 10) Mathematical Modeling Li-Ion Batteries; 11) Experimental Verification of the Li-Ion Battery Model; 11) Integrated Power System Models for Satellites; and 12) Experimental Verification of Integrated-Systems Model.

Weidner, John W.↗

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

Purpose of Review The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). Recent Findings The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Summary Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

Marine Biogeochemistry↗

Using Board Games as Subject Matter for Developing Expertise in Model-Based Systems Engineering

As more organizations transition from traditional document-centric systems engineering to a model-based approach, many are challenged to train their staff in new languages, tools, and methodologies, while managing the expectations of stakeholders and their expected model outcomes. In particular, challenges associated with learning a new modeling language and developing skills in the 'art' of modeling present organizations with formidable obstacles to realizing this transition. This paper hypothesizes that systems engineers may more readily learn how to correctly model with SysML, and develop intuition about the art of modeling and using patterns, if their learning references a commonly and thoroughly-understood subject, such as a board game. This paper presents a case for the use of board games as subject matter for new modelers. It demonstrates the concept with a sample model of Hasbro's popular board game, Monopoly, and discusses the limitations of this approach and potential adaptations that may broaden the applicability of the learned skills to projects. Finally, results from a small feasibility assessment and concepts for more formal study to evaluate the hypothesis are presented.

Model-Based Systems Engineering↗

The evolution of the protein synthesis system. I - A model of a primitive protein synthesis system

A model is developed to describe the evolution of the protein synthesis system. The model is comprised of two independent autocatalytic systems, one including one gene (A-gene) and two activated amino acid polymerases (O and A-polymerases), and the other including the addition of another gene (N-gene) and a nucleotide polymerase. Simulation results have suggested that even a small enzymic activity and polymerase specificity could lead the system to the most accurate protein synthesis, as far as permitted by transitions to systems with higher accuracy.

Mizutani, H.↗

The Polar System Analysis Package (Ver. 1 Specifications)

The Polar System Analysis Package (POLeSTAr) is a modern data fusion tool being designed to benchmark,evaluate and compare the polar physics and biogeochemistry of Earth System Models (ESMs). It is being written in Python to make use of libraries including Xarray, Matplotlib, SciPy, NumPy and PyTorch within algorithms developed specifically for polar system modeling. Initial POLeSTAr algorithms will be adapted from the MATLAB Ridgepack package that was designed to analyze the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) sea ice component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and sea ice model CICE within the Community Earth System Model (CESM).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of the METMAN Thermal Desktop Human Model for System Integration

Human thermal analysis and model development inform NASA’s space suit development, vehicle/habitat design, and survivability studies. Historically, human thermal models such as the 41-node metabolic man (METMAN) and the Wissler model have been standalone software tools developed with FORTRAN, a programming language known for its high performance in computationally intensive applications. Though efficient, these standalone programs pose challenges to coupled human-system analysis with detailed life support and thermal control subsystem models in other commercial software. This paper describes the conversion of the METMAN human thermal model from a standalone FORTRAN program to a model in Thermal Desktop (Ansys), a commonly used CAD-based simulation software for engineering that specializes in heat transfer, thermal radiation, and fluid flow analysis. This format was chosen to best facilitate model sharing and compatibility, enabling the direct integration of METMAN human thermal analysis with subsystem models across NASA programs and commercial partners.

Elizabeth Thurston↗

National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) LiDAR and DEM data from two NGEE Arctic Sites, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, Winter 2022

From April 3 through April 6 of 2022, airborne remote sensing data was collected by the National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) in collaboration with NGEE Arctic scientists. Snow-on data was collected around two NGEE Arctic study sites on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska: Teller mm 27 and Kougarok mm 64. A Robinson R44 II helicopter with a RIEGL VQ-580 II airborne laser scanner was used to collect the LiDAR point cloud data for each study site. This survey was conducted during expected peak snow cover at the end of the winter on the Seward Peninsula, and can be paired with data collected in 2021 during the snow-off campaign "National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) LiDAR, Imagery, and DEM data from five NGEE Arctic Sites, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, August 2021" (Singhania et al., 2023) (NGA270). This data package contains LiDAR point clouds (.las), Digital Elevation Models (.tif), and shapefiles of the .las tiling system (.shp). A project report detailing data collection details, GNSS stations and GNSS corrections, and processing steps is also included. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urey prize lecture: On the diversity of plausible planetary systems

Models of planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are used to predict the variety of planetary and satellite systems that may be present within our galaxy. A new approximate global criterion for orbital stability of planetary systems based on an extension of the local resonance overlap criterion is proposed. This criterion implies that at least some of Uranus' small inner moons are significantly less massive than predicted by estimates based on Voyager volumes and densities assumed to equal that of Miranda. Simple calculations (neglecting planetary gravity) suggest that giant planets which acrete substantial amounts of gas while their envelopes are extremely distended ultimately rotate rapidly in the prgrade direction.

Lissauer, J. J.↗

On the Diversity of Planetary Systems

Models of planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are described and used to discuss possible characteristics of undiscovered planetary systems. Modern theories of star and planet formation, which are based upon observations of the Solar System and of young stars and their environments, predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. A potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

The Birth of Planetary Systems

Models of planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are described and used to discuss possible characteristics of undiscovered planetary systems. Modern theories of star and planet formation, which are based upon observations of the Solar System and of young stars and their environments, predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large- enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. Another potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

Simulation process and data flow for a large system dynamics model

This paper documents the workflow and supporting technologies that a large system dynamics model, the biomass scenario model, employs to streamline the data preparation, simulation, quality control, and analysis process at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The workflow centers on automation of routine aspects of the flow of data between data stores, simulations, and visualizations. It enforces quality checks on data, reproducibility of computations, and traceability of results, while maintaining complete archives of modeling and analysis artifacts. The resulting frictionless simulation/analysis environment supports large-scale sensitivity analysis, interactive creation of ensembles of simulations, and rapid visualization-based exploration of simulation results.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗