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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1975

A survey of design methods for failure detection in dynamic systems

A number of methods for the detection of abrupt changes (such as failures) in stochastic dynamical systems were surveyed. The class of linear systems were emphasized, but the basic concepts, if not the detailed analyses, carry over to other classes of systems. The methods surveyed range from the design of specific failure-sensitive filters, to the use of statistical tests on filter innovations, to the development of jump process formulations. Tradeoffs in complexity versus performance are discussed.

Willsky, A. S.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Role of Interactions and Correlations on Collective Dynamics of Molecular Motors Along Parallel Filaments

Cytoskeletal motors known as motor proteins are molecules that drive cellular transport along several parallel cytoskeletal filaments and support many biological processes. Experimental evidences suggest that they interact with the nearest molecules of their filament while performing any mechanical work. These interactions modify the microscopic level properties of motor proteins. In this work, a new version of two-channel totally asymmetric simple exclusion process, that incorporates the intra-channel interactions in a thermodynamically consistent way, is proposed. As the existing approaches for multi-channel systems deviate from analyzing the combined effect of inter and intra-channel interactions, a new approach known as modified vertical cluster mean field is developed. The approach along with Monte Carlo simulations successfully encounters some correlations and computes the complex dynamic properties of the system. Role of symmetry of interactions and inter-channel coupling is observed on the phase diagrams, maximal particle current and its corresponding optimal interaction strength. Surprisingly, for all values of coupling rate and most of the interaction splittings, the optimal interaction strength corresponding to maximal current belongs to the case of weak repulsive interactions. Moreover, for weak interaction splittings and with an increase in the coupling rate, the optimal interaction strength tends towards the known experimental results. The effect of coupling as well as interaction energy is also measured for correlations. They are found to be short-range and weaker for repulsive and weak attractive interactions while they are long-range and stronger for large attractions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model correction and updating of a stochastic degradation model for failure prognostics of miter gates

Understanding the degradation of the quoin block is vital for failure prognostics in miter gates. Due to the complicated degradation mechanism, degradation models based on simplifications and assumptions cannot accurately describe the damage evolution. It is observed that small errors in a simplified degradation model can lead to a large discrepancy in the remaining useful life estimation attributed to error accumulation over time. Aiming to address this issue in failure prognostics, this paper presents a dynamic model correction framework for a simplified degradation model using strain measurements. In the proposed framework, a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model is employed to compensate the missing physics in a simplified stochastic degradation model. Here, a maximum likelihood estimation method is developed to estimate the uncertain parameters of the simplified physics-based degradation model along with the unknown PCE model parameters using strain measurements as the observables. The updated damage degradation model is then applied to failure prognostics of a miter gate. Results of a case study show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the accuracy of failure prognostics in miter gates.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Effect of Spatial Concentration Fluctuations on Effective Kinetics in Diffusion-Reaction Systems

The effect of spatial concentration fluctuations on reaction of two solutes, A+B$\rightarrow$C, is considered. In the absence of fluctuations, concentration of solutes decays as $A_{det}=B_{det} \sim t^{-1}$. Contrary to this, experimental and numerical studies suggest that concentrations decay significantly slower. Existing theory suggests $t^{-d/4}$ scaling in the asymptotic regime ($d$ is the dimensionality of the problem). Here we study the effect of fluctuations using the classical diffusion-reaction equation with random initial conditions. Initial concentrations of the reactants are treated as correlated random fields. We use the method of moment equations to solve the resulting stochastic diffusion-reaction equation and obtain a solution for the average concentrations that deviates from $\sim t^{-1}$ to $\sim t^{-d/4}$ behavior at time $t^*$. Finally, we derive analytical expressions for the time $t^*$ as a function of Damk\"{o}hler number and the coefficient of variation of the initial concentration. Our analytical results support earlier explanations of the deviation of average concentrations from $A_{det}=B_{det} \sim t^{-1}$ behavior, which attributed this change of scaling to the creation of isolated {\it islands} of A and B.

uncertainty quantification, stochastic differentia↗
DOE OSTI2026

Non-local transport in radiation-hydrodynamics codes for ICF by efficient coupling to an external Vlasov–Fokker–Planck code

Accurately incorporating non-local transport into radiation-hydrodynamics codes, and indeed any fluid system, has long been elusive. To date, a simplified and accurate theory that can be easily integrated has not been available. This limitation affects modeling in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and magnetic confinement fusion systems, among others, where non-local transport is well-known to be present. Here, we present a coupling methodology between a full Vlasov–Fokker–Planck (VFP) electron kinetic code and radiation-hydrodynamics (rad-hydro) codes. The VFP code is used to adjust native electron transport in the rad-hydro code, thus enabling improved transport without the need to integrate a full electron VFP solver into the rad-hydro code. This approach necessitates only occasional invocation of the VFP code, reducing computational intensity compared to following the dynamic evolution entirely with the VFP code on fluid time scales. We illustrate that the methodology is more accurate than other simplified methods in thermal decay systems relevant to ICF and can replicate standard theoretical results with high accuracy.

Electronic transport↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal control of coupled quantum systems based on the first-order Magnus expansion: Application to multiple dipole-dipole-coupled molecular rotors

This paper presents a method for performing approximate optimal control simulations for quantum systems with multiple coupled degrees of freedom. In this work, the time evolution is simulated using the first-order Magnus expansion in the interaction picture, where the couplings between different degrees of freedom are treated as the perturbation. A numerical implementation procedure is presented that leverages upon pairwise couplings and the separability of the zeroth-order time evolution operator to achieve a reduced computational cost, which is analyzed with respect to the number of degrees of freedom. The formulation is compatible with gradient-free methods to optimize the control field, and a stochastic hill climbing algorithm is adopted for this purpose. As illustrations, optimal control simulations are performed for systems of two and three dipole-dipole-coupled molecular rotors under the influence of a control field. For the two-rotor system, the field is optimized to achieve either orientation or entanglement objectives. For the three-rotor system, the field is optimized either to orient all three rotors in the same direction or to orient one rotor in a particular direction while the other two rotors point in the opposite direction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2012

Effect of Nonlinearity in Hybrid Kinetic Monte Carlo-Continuum Models

Recently there has been interest in developing efficient ways to model heterogeneous surface reactions with hybrid computational models that couple a KMC model for a surface to a finite difference model for bulk diffusion in a continuous domain. We consider two representative problems that validate a hybrid method and also show that this method captures the combined effects of nonlinearity and stochasticity. We first validate a simple deposition/dissolution model with a linear rate showing that the KMC-continuum hybrid agrees with both a fully deterministic model and its analytical solution. We then study a deposition/dissolution model including competitive adsorption, which leads to a nonlinear rate, and show that, in this case, the KMC-continuum hybrid and fully deterministic simulations do not agree. However, we are able to identify the difference as a natural result of the stochasticity coming from the KMC surface process. Because KMC captures inherent fluctuations, we consider it to be more realistic than a purely deterministic model. Therefore, we consider the KMC-continuum hybrid to be more representative of a real system.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator)

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator) is a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool for wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers and industry consultants to estimate the potential for soaring raptors to interact with operating wind turbines, without the need for site-specific data collection. Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has exposed the risk of turbine collisions for birds and bats. The risk to obligate soaring raptors such as golden eagles is of particular concern due to their small population and influence on ecological balance. Golden eagles rely heavily on updrafts to subsidize their flight, putting them in direct conflict with operational wind turbines that utilize the same wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors with varying atmospheric conditions is crucial for predicting and mitigating the risk of turbine collision. This software contains a predictive movement model that simulates individual flight paths of golden eagles during updraft-subsidized long-distance flight, including migration. For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates thousands of eagles at turbine-scale spatial resolution (50m) to produce a relative presence density map. The simulated eagles rely on updrafts to pursue uninterrupted directional flight with minimal energy expenditure, following fluid-flow principles. The simulator includes a stochastic model of eagle behavior and a systematic method of accounting for spatiotemporal variations in atmospheric conditions. This framework only requires publicly available atmospheric data to estimate orographic and thermal updrafts, ensuring general usability.

Sandhu, Rimple↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simultaneous Evolution of Gyre and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Anomalies as an Eigenmode of the North Atlantic System

Here, the authors observe an interdecadal oscillatory mode of the North Atlantic atmosphere–ocean system in a general circulation model (GFDL CM2.1) via a linear inverse model (LIM). The oscillation mechanism is mostly embedded in the subpolar gyre: anomalous advection generates density anomalies in the eastern subpolar gyre, which propagate along the mean gyre circulation and reach the subpolar gyre center around 10 years later, when associated anomalous advection of the opposite sign starts the other half cycle. While density anomalies reach the Labrador Sea deep convection region, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) anomalies are also induced. Both the gyre and AMOC anomalies then propagate equatorward slowly, following the advection of density anomalies. The oscillation is further demonstrated to be more likely an ocean-only mode while excited by the atmospheric forcing; in particular, it can be approximated as a linearly driven damped oscillator that is partly excited by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The slowly evolving interdecadal oscillation significantly improves and prolongs the LIM’s prediction skill of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

EdgeAI: Machine learning via direct attached accelerator for streaming data processing at high shot rate x-ray free-electron lasers

We present a case for low batch-size inference with the potential for adaptive training of a lean encoder model. We do so in the context of a paradigmatic example of machine learning as applied in data acquisition at high data velocity scientific user facilities such as the Linac Coherent Light Source-II x-ray Free-Electron Laser. We discuss how a low-latency inference model operating at the data acquisition edge can capitalize on the naturally stochastic nature of such sources. We simulate the method of attosecond angular streaking to produce representative results whereby simulated input data reproduce high-resolution ground truth probability distributions. By minimizing the mean-squared error between the decoded output of the latent representation and the ground truth distributions, we ensure that the encoding layers and resulting latent representation maintains full fidelity for any downstream task, be it classification or regression. We present throughput results for data-parallel inference of various batch sizes, some with throughput exceeding 100 k images per second. We also show in situ training below 10 s per epoch for the full encoder–decoder model as would be relevant for streaming and adaptive real-time data production at our nation’s scientific light sources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the structural uncertainty of the aerosol mixing state representation in a modal model

Abstract. Aerosol mixing state is an important emergent property that affects aerosol radiative forcing and aerosol–cloud interactions, but it has not been easy to constrain this property globally. This study aims to verify the global distribution of aerosol mixing state represented by modal models. To quantify the aerosol mixing state, we used the aerosol mixing state indices for submicron aerosol based on the mixing of optically absorbing and non-absorbing species (χo), the mixing of primary carbonaceous and non-primary carbonaceous species (χc), and the mixing of hygroscopic and non-hygroscopic species (χh). To achieve a spatiotemporal comparison, we calculated the mixing state indices using output from the Community Earth System Model with the four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) and compared the results with the mixing state indices from a benchmark machine-learned model trained on high-detail particle-resolved simulations from the particle-resolved stochastic aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. The two methods yielded very different spatial patterns of the mixing state indices. In some regions, the yearly averaged χ value computed by the MAM4 model differed by up to 70 percentage points from the benchmark values. These errors tended to be zonally structured, with the MAM4 model predicting a more internally mixed aerosol at low latitudes and a more externally mixed aerosol at high latitudes compared to the benchmark. Our study quantifies potential model bias in simulating mixing state in different regions and provides insights into potential improvements to model process representation for a more realistic simulation of aerosols towards better quantification of radiative forcing and aerosol–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving the representation of shallow cumulus convection with the simplified-higher-order-closure–mass-flux (SHOC+MF v1.0) approach

Abstract. Parameterized boundary layer turbulence and moist convection remain some of the largest sources of uncertainty in general circulation models. High-resolution climate modeling aims to reduce that uncertainty by explicitly attempting to resolve deep moist convective motions. An example of such a model is the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) with a target global resolution of 3.25 km, allowing for a more accurate representation of complex mesoscale deep convective dynamics. Yet, small-scale planetary boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection still need to be parameterized, which in SCREAM is accomplished through the turbulent-kinetic-energy-based (TKE-based) simplified higher-order closure (SHOC) – a simplified version of the assumed-double-Gaussian-PDF (probability density function) higher-order-closure method. In this paper, we implement a stochastic-multiplume mass-flux (MF) parameterization of dry and shallow convection in SCREAM to go beyond the limitations of double-Gaussian-PDF closures and couple it to SHOC (SHOC+MF). The new parameterization implemented in a single-column model type version of SCREAM produces results for two shallow cumulus convection cases (marine and continental shallow convection) that agree well with the reference data from large-eddy simulations, thus improving the general representation of the thermodynamic quantities and their turbulent fluxes as well as cloud macrophysics in the model. Furthermore, SHOC+MF parameterization shows weak sensitivity to the vertical grid resolution and model time step.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Control optimization, stabilization and computer algorithms for aircraft applications

Computationally useful algorithms are considered that can aid the control engineer in designing systems control in linear time invariant dynamics for aircraft applications. Structural aspects of system identification, matrix parameterization, and the effect of feedback on identifiability of systems. Adaptive and stochastic control model constructions are projected, and a method for approximate identification of aircraft characteristics and subsequent generation of control signals is outlined.

Mitter, S. K.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Approximations to and local properties of diffusions with discontinuous controls

The paper discusses several properties of control systems defined by stochastic differential equations, which are defined by the method of Girsanov, using a transformation of measures, and where the controls are discontinuous. Uniqueness of the multivariate distributions of the process is proved, and it is shown that the process is a limit, in a natural sense, of a certain discrete time approximation. Other questions, concerning the effects on the distributions of the paths, and of the cost of approximating the control by a smooth control and concerning local properties of the solution, are discussed.

Kushner, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Analysis of bilinear stochastic systems

Analysis of stochastic dynamical systems that involve multiplicative (bilinear) noise processes is considered. After defining the systems of interest, the evolution of the moments of such systems, the question of stochastic stability, and estimation for bilinear stochastic systems are discussed. Both exact and approximate methods of analysis are introduced, and, in particular, the uses of Lie-theoretic concepts and harmonic analysis are discussed.

Willsky, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Integrator Windup Protection-Techniques and a STOVL Aircraft Engine Controller Application

Integrators are included in the feedback loop of a control system to eliminate the steady state errors in the commanded variables. The integrator windup problem arises if the control actuators encounter operational limits before the steady state errors are driven to zero by the integrator. The typical effects of windup are large system oscillations, high steady state error, and a delayed system response following the windup. In this study, methods to prevent the integrator windup are examined to provide Integrator Windup Protection (IW) for an engine controller of a Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft. An unified performance index is defined to optimize the performance of the Conventional Anti-Windup (CAW) and the Modified Anti-Windup (MAW) methods. A modified Genetic Algorithm search procedure with stochastic parameter encoding is implemented to obtain the optimal parameters of the CAW scheme. The advantages and drawbacks of the CAW and MAW techniques are discussed and recommendations are made for the choice of the IWP scheme, given some characteristics of the system.

KrishnaKumar, K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modern Monte Carlo methods for efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation: A survey

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a sampling-based approach that has widely used for quantification and propagation of uncertainties. However, the standard MC method is often time-consuming if the simulation-based model is computationally intensive. This article gives an overview of modern MC methods to address the existing challenges of the standard MC in the context of UQ. Specifically, multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) extending the concept of control variates achieves a significant reduction of the computational cost by performing most evaluations with low accuracy and corresponding low cost, and relatively few evaluations at high accuracy and corresponding high cost. Multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) accelerates the convergence of standard Monte Carlo by generalizing the control variates with different models having varying fidelities and varying computational costs. Multimodel Monte Carlo method (MMMC), having a different setting of MLMC and MFMC, aims to address the issue of UQ and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are limited. Multimodel inference combined with importance sampling is proposed for quantifying and efficiently propagating the uncertainties resulting from small data sets. All of these three modern MC methods achieve a significant improvement of computational efficiency for probabilistic UQ, particularly uncertainty propagation. Finally, an algorithm summary and the corresponding code implementation are provided for each of the modern MC methods. The extension and application of these methods are discussed in detail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗