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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
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NASA NTRS2003

Extended Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Analyses at the Shuttle Landing Facility: Phase II Results

This report describes the results from Phase II of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A seven year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. A PC-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) tool was created to display the data quickly.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

Howell, L. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Influence of Idealized Heterogeneity on Wet and Dry Planetary Boundary Layers Coupled to the Land Surface: Instantaneous Fields and Statistics - 1

This is the first in a two-part series of manuscripts describing numerical experiments on the influence of 2-30 km striplike heterogeneity on wet and dry boundary layers coupled to the land surface. The strip-like heterogeneity is shown to dramatically alter the structure of the free-convective boundary layer by inducing significant organized circulations that modify turbulent statistics. The coupling with the land-surface modifies the circulations compared to previous studies using fixed surface forcing. Total boundary layer turbulence kinetic energy increases significantly for surface heterogeneity at scales between Lambda/z(sub i) = 4 and 9, however entrainment rates for all cases are largely unaffected by the strip-like heterogeneity.

Houser, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2003

Statistical Methods for Rapid Aerothermal Analysis and Design Technology: Validation

The cost and safety goals for NASA s next generation of reusable launch vehicle (RLV) will require that rapid high-fidelity aerothermodynamic design tools be used early in the design cycle. To meet these requirements, it is desirable to identify adequate statistical models that quantify and improve the accuracy, extend the applicability, and enable combined analyses using existing prediction tools. The initial research work focused on establishing suitable candidate models for these purposes. The second phase is focused on assessing the performance of these models to accurately predict the heat rate for a given candidate data set. This validation work compared models and methods that may be useful in predicting the heat rate.

DePriest, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS2003

Vector Radiative Transfer Equation for Arbitrarily Shaped and Arbitrarily Oriented Particles: A Microphysical Derivation from Statistical Electromagnetics

We use the concepts of statistical electromagnetics to derive the general radiative transfer equation (RTE) describing multiple scattering of polarized light by sparse discrete random media consisting of arbitrarily shaped and arbitrarily oriented particles. The derivation starts from the volume integral and Lippmann-Schwinger equations for the electric field scattered by a fixed N-particle system and proceeds to the vector form of the Foldy-Lax equations and their approximate far-field version. We then assume that particle positions are completely random and derive the vector RTE by applying the Twersky approximation to the coherent electric field and the Twersky and ladder approximations to the coherency dyad of the diffuse field in the limit N -> infinity. The concluding section discusses the physical meaning of the quantities entering the general vector RTE and the assumptions made in its derivation.

Mishchenko, Michael I.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Statistical Comparison and Improvement of Methods for Combining Random and Harmonic Loads

Structures in many environments experience both random and harmonic excitation. A variety of closed-form techniques has been used in the aerospace industry to combine the loads resulting from the two sources. The resulting combined loads are then used to design for both yield ultimate strength and high cycle fatigue capability. This paper examines the cumulative distribution function (CDF) percentiles obtained using each method by integrating the joint probability density function of the sine and random components. A new Microsoft Excel spreadsheet macro that links with the software program Mathematics is then used to calculate the combined value corresponding to any desired percentile along with a curve fit to this value. Another Excel macro is used to calculate the combination using a Monte Carlo simulation. Unlike the traditional techniques, these methods quantify the calculated load value with a Consistent percentile. Using either of the presented methods can be extremely valuable in probabilistic design, which requires a statistical characterization of the loading. Also, since the CDF at high probability levels is very flat, the design value is extremely sensitive to the predetermined percentile; therefore, applying the new techniques can lower the design loading substantially without losing any of the identified structural reliability.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Application of a Semiparametric Statistical Method to Spacecraft Sensor and Calibration Data

A semiparametric statistical method is applied to spacecraft sensor data and spacecraft sensor residual data. The method stipulates a reference distribution and deviations from it. The problem is to estimate the reference distribution and the distorted distributions from all available data from all the sources under consideration. The problem can be solved by assuming a distortion form and independent data.

Kedem, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS2004

Multivariate Statistical Inference of Lightning Occurrence, and Using Lightning Observations

Two classes of multivariate statistical inference using TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor, Precipitation Radar, and Microwave Imager observation are studied, using nonlinear classification neural networks as inferential tools. The very large and globally representative data sample provided by TRMM allows both training and validation (without overfitting) of neural networks with many degrees of freedom. In the first study, the flashing / or flashing condition of storm complexes is diagnosed using radar, passive microwave and/or environmental observations as neural network inputs. The diagnostic skill of these simple lightning/no-lightning classifiers can be quite high, over land (above 80% Probability of Detection; below 20% False Alarm Rate). In the second, passive microwave and lightning observations are used to diagnose radar reflectivity vertical structure. A priori diagnosis of hydrometeor vertical structure is highly important for improved rainfall retrieval from either orbital radars (e.g., the future Global Precipitation Mission "mothership") or radiometers (e.g., operational SSM/I and future Global Precipitation Mission passive microwave constellation platforms), we explore the incremental benefit to such diagnosis provided by lightning observations.

Boccippio, Dennis↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Statistical Studies on Thin Cirrus from MODIS Data

The 1.38 micron channel on the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiomater (MODIS) is an ideal channel to identify and quantify thin cirrus on a global basis. This channel is used to produce the cirrus reflectance product in MOD06 and also used extensively by the MODIS aerosol algorithms to mask clouds for the MOD04 product. The aerosol product uses a lower threshold of the 1.38 micron channel reflectance of 0.01. A cirrus channel reflectance of 0.01 corresponds to approximately an aerosol optical thickness of 0.10. Therefore, the ambiguity due to the minor cirrus contamination may introduce artificial optical thickness in the aerosol products. The questions arise: How prevalent are the thinnest cirrus clouds over the globe? Do they persist over specific regions and seasons? Can we distinguish between the noise of the channel and the actual cloudiness by extrapolating the cloudiness signal to very dark scenes, statistically. We analyze the Terra data, over land and ocean to answer these questions.

Li, Rong-Rong↗
NASA NTRS1995

Compilation and Analysis of 20- and 30-GHz Rain Fade Events at the ACTS NASA Ground Station: Statistics and Model Assessment

Since the beginning of the operational phase of the NASA Research Center's Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS), signal-fade measurements have been recorded at the NASA Ground Station located in Cleveland, Ohio, with the use of the 20- and 30-GHz beacon signals. Compilations of the daily data have been statistically analyzed on a monthly and yearly basis. Such analyses have yielded relevant parameters as (1) cumulative monthly and yearly probability distributions of signal attenuation by rain, (2) attenuation duration versus attenuation threshold probabilities, and (3) rate-of-fade probabilities. Not only are such data needed for a realistic data base to support the design and performance analysis of future satellite systems, but they are necessary to assess predictions made with the ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model.

Manning, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Statistical Analysis of CMC Constituent and Processing Data

Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) are the next "big thing" in high-temperature structural materials. In the case of jet engines, it is widely believed that the metallic superalloys currently being utilized for hot structures (combustors, shrouds, turbine vanes and blades) are nearing their potential limits of improvement. In order to allow for increased turbine temperatures to increase engine efficiency, material scientists have begun looking toward advanced CMCs and SiC/SiC composites in particular. Ceramic composites provide greater strength-to-weight ratios at higher temperatures than metallic alloys, but at the same time require greater challenges in micro-structural optimization that in turn increases the cost of the material as well as increases the risk of variability in the material s thermo-structural behavior. to model various potential CMC engine materials and examines the current variability in these properties due to variability in component processing conditions and constituent materials; then, to see how processing and constituent variations effect key strength, stiffness, and thermal properties of the finished components. Basically, this means trying to model variations in the component s behavior by knowing what went into creating it. inter-phase and manufactured by chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) and melt infiltration (MI) were considered. Examinations of: (1) the percent constituents by volume, (2) the inter-phase thickness, (3) variations in the total porosity, and (4) variations in the chemical composition of the Sic fiber are carried out and modeled using various codes used here at NASA-Glenn (PCGina, NASALife, CEMCAN, etc...). The effects of these variations and the ranking of their respective influences on the various thermo-mechanical material properties are studied and compared to available test data. The properties of the materials as well as minor changes to geometry are then made to the computer model and the detrimental effects observed using statistical analysis software. The ultimate purpose of this study is to determine what variations in material processing can lead to the most critical changes in the materials property. The work I have taken part in this summer explores, in general, the key properties needed In this study SiC/SiC composites of varying architectures, utilizing a boron-nitride (BN)

Fornuff, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2005

INDUCTIVE SYSTEM HEALTH MONITORING WITH STATISTICAL METRICS

Model-based reasoning is a powerful method for performing system monitoring and diagnosis. Building models for model-based reasoning is often a difficult and time consuming process. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) software was developed to provide a technique to automatically produce health monitoring knowledge bases for systems that are either difficult to model (simulate) with a computer or which require computer models that are too complex to use for real time monitoring. IMS processes nominal data sets collected either directly from the system or from simulations to build a knowledge base that can be used to detect anomalous behavior in the system. Machine learning and data mining techniques are used to characterize typical system behavior by extracting general classes of nominal data from archived data sets. In particular, a clustering algorithm forms groups of nominal values for sets of related parameters. This establishes constraints on those parameter values that should hold during nominal operation. During monitoring, IMS provides a statistically weighted measure of the deviation of current system behavior from the established normal baseline. If the deviation increases beyond the expected level, an anomaly is suspected, prompting further investigation by an operator or automated system. IMS has shown potential to be an effective, low cost technique to produce system monitoring capability for a variety of applications. We describe the training and system health monitoring techniques of IMS. We also present the application of IMS to a data set from the Space Shuttle Columbia STS-107 flight. IMS was able to detect an anomaly in the launch telemetry shortly after a foam impact damaged Columbia's thermal protection system.

Iverson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Mechanical Impact Testing: A Statistical Measurement

In the decades since the 1950s, when NASA first developed mechanical impact testing of materials, researchers have continued efforts to gain a better understanding of the chemical, mechanical, and thermodynamic nature of the phenomenon. The impact mechanism is a real combustion ignition mechanism that needs understanding in the design of an oxygen system. The use of test data from this test method has been questioned due to lack of a clear method of application of the data and variability found between tests, material batches, and facilities. This effort explores a large database that has accumulated over a number of years and explores its overall nature. Moreover, testing was performed to determine the statistical nature of the test procedure to help establish sample size guidelines for material characterization. The current method of determining a pass/fail criterion based on either light emission or sound report or material charring is questioned.

Engel, Carl D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Characterization of Environmental Error Sources Affecting Electronically Scanned Pressure Transducers

Minimization of uncertainty is essential to extend the usable range of the 15-psid Electronically Scanned Pressure (ESP) transducer measurements to the low free-stream static pressures found in hypersonic wind tunnels. Statistical characterization of environmental error sources inducing much of this uncertainty requires a well defined and controlled calibration method. Employing such a controlled calibration system, several studies were conducted that provide quantitative information detailing the required controls needed to minimize environmental and human induced error sources. Results of temperature, environmental pressure, over-pressurization, and set point randomization studies for the 15-psid transducers are presented along with a comparison of two regression methods using data acquired with both 0.36-psid and 15-psid transducers. Together these results provide insight into procedural and environmental controls required for long term high-accuracy pressure measurements near 0.01 psia in the hypersonic testing environment using 15-psid ESP transducers.

Green, Del L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Statistical Analysis of Loop-Top Motion in Solar Limb Flares

Previous studies of hot, thermal solar flare loops imaged with the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) have identified several flares for which the loop top shrinks downward early in the impulsive phase and then expands upward later in the impulsive phase (Sui & Holman 2003; Sui, Holman & Dennis 2004; Veronig et al. 2005). This early downward motion is not predicted by flare models. We study a statistical sample of RHESSI flares to assess how common this evolution is and to better characterize it. In a sample of 88 flares near the solar lin$ that show identifiable loop structure in RHESSI images, 66% (58 flares) showed downward loop-top motion followed by upward motion. We therefore conclude that the early downward motion is a frequent characteristic of flare loops. We obtain the distribution of the timing of the change from downward to upward motion relative to flare start and peak times. We also obtain the distributions of downward and upward speeds.

Holman, Gordon D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Characterization of Environmental Error Sources Affecting Electronically Scanned Pressure Transducers

Minimization of uncertainty is essential to extend the usable range of the 15-psid Electronically Scanned Pressure [ESP) transducer measurements to the low free-stream static pressures found in hypersonic wind tunnels. Statistical characterization of environmental error sources inducing much of this uncertainty requires a well defined and controlled calibration method. Employing such a controlled calibration system, several studies were conducted that provide quantitative information detailing the required controls needed to minimize environmental and human induced error sources. Results of temperature, environmental pressure, over-pressurization, and set point randomization studies for the 15-psid transducers are presented along with a comparison of two regression methods using data acquired with both 0.36-psid and 15-psid transducers. Together these results provide insight into procedural and environmental controls required for long term high-accuracy pressure measurements near 0.01 psia in the hypersonic testing environment using 15-psid ESP transducers.

Green, Del L.↗