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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Quantile regression-enriched event modeling framework for dropout analysis in high-temperature superconductor manufacturing

High-temperature superconductor (HTS) tapes have shown promising characteristics of high critical current, which are prerequisites for applications in high-field magnets. Due to the unstable growth conditions in the HTS manufacturing process, however, the frequent occurrences of dropouts in the critical current impede the consistent performance of HTS tapes. To manufacture HTS tapes with large scale, high yield, and uniform performance, it is essential to develop novel data analysis approaches for modeling the dropouts and identifying the related important process parameters. Conventional methods for modeling recurrent events, such as the point process, require the extraction of events from quality measurements. As the critical current is a continuous process, it may not comprehensively represent the drop patterns by transforming the time-series measurements into a set of events. Here, to solve this issue, we develop a novel quantile regression-enriched event modeling (QREM) framework that integrates the non-homogeneous Poisson process for modeling the occurrence of dropouts and the quantile regression for capturing the drop patterns. By incorporating the feature selection and regularization, the proposed framework identifies a set of significant process parameters that can potentially cause the dropouts of HTS tapes. The proposed method is tested on real HTS tapes produced using an advanced manufacturing process, successfully identifying important parameters that influence dropout events including the substrate temperature and voltage. The results demonstrate that the proposed QREM method outperforms the standard point process in predicting the occurrence of dropouts.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Chemical mixture exposure patterns and obesity among U.S. adults in NHANES 2005–2012

The effect of chemical exposure on obesity has raised great concerns. Real-world chemical exposure always imposes mixture impacts, however their exposure patterns and the corresponding associations with obesity have not been fully evaluated. To discover obesity-related mixed chemical exposure patterns in the general U.S. population. Sparse Decompositional Regression (SDR), a model adapted from sparse representation learning technique, was developed to identify exposure patterns of chemical mixtures with exclusion (non-targeted model) and inclusion (targeted model) of health outcomes. We assessed the relationships between the identified chemical mixture patterns and obesity-related indexes. We also conducted a comprehensive evaluation of this SDR model by comparing to the existing models, including generalized linear regression model (GLM), principal component analysis (PCA), and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR). Eight core exposure patterns were identified using the non-targeted SDR model. Patterns of high levels of MEP, high levels of naphthalene metabolites (ΣOH-Nap), and a pattern of high exposure levels of MCOP, MCNP, and MCPP were positively associated with obesity. Patterns of high levels of BP3, and a pattern of higher mixed levels of MPB, PPB, and MEP were found to have negative associations. Associations were strengthened using the targeted SDR model. In the single chemical analysis by GLM, BP3, MBP, PPB, MCOP, and MCNP showed significant associations with obesity or body indexes. The SDR model exceeded the performance of PCA in pattern identification. Both SDR and BKMR identified a positive contribution of ΣOH-Nap and MCOP, as well as a negative contribution of BP3 and PPB to obesity. Our study identified five core exposure patterns of chemical mixtures significantly associated with obesity using the newly developed SDR model. The SDR model could open a new avenue for assessing health effects of environmental mixture contaminants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings

Seismic fragility functions can be evaluated using the cloud analysis method with linear regression which makes three fundamental assumptions about the relation between structural response and seismic intensity: log-linear median relationship, constant standard deviation, and Gaussian distributed errors. While cloud analysis with linear regression is a popular method, the degree to which these individual and compounded assumptions affect the fragility and the risk of mid-rise buildings needs to be systematically studied. This paper conducts such a study considering three building archetypes that make up a bulk of the building stock: RC moment frame, steel moment frame, and wood shear wall. Gaussian kernel methods are employed to capture the data-driven variations in the median structural response and standard deviation and the distributions of residuals with the intensity level. With reference to the Gaussian kernels approach, it is found that while the linear regression assumptions may not affect the fragility functions of lower damage states, this conclusion does not hold for the higher damage states (such as the Complete state). In addition, the effects of linear regression assumptions on the seismic risk are evaluated. For predicting the demand hazard, it is found that the linear regression assumptions can impact the computed risk for larger structural response values. However, for predicting the loss hazard with downtime as the decision variable, linear regression can be considered adequate for all practical purposes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Active microwave measurement from space of sea-surface winds

Radar backscatter measurements from the ocean were made at 13.9 GHz from Skylab. The radar signal increased rapidly with wind speed over the entire range of winds encountered, and for angles of incidence of 30 deg larger. Signals observed were normalized to a nominal incidence angle and to a nominal upwind observation direction, using a theoretical model that has been verified as approximately true with aircraft experiments. Observations during the summer and winter Skylab missions were treated separately because of possible differences caused by an accident to the antenna between the two sets of observations. The results are in general agreement with the theory in all cases. The objective analysis method used for determining surface-truth winds in the Skylab experiment was tested by comparing results obtained at weather ships with the observations made by the weather ships themselves. In most cases, the variance about the regression line between objective analysis and weather-ship data actually exceeded that about the regression line between objective analysis and backscatter data

Young, J. D.↗

Sparsity Facilitates Chemical-Reaction Selection for Engine Simulations

Analysis of large-scale, realistic models incorporating detailed chemistry can be challenging because each simulation is computationally expensive, and a complete analysis may require many simulations. This paper addresses one such problem of this type, chemical-reaction selection in engine simulations. In this computationally challenging case, it is demonstrated how the important concept of sparsity can facilitate chemical-reaction selection, which is the process of finding the most important chemical reactions for modeling a chemical process. It is difficult to perform accurate reaction selection for engine simulations using realistic models of the chemistry, as each simulation takes processor weeks to complete. We developed a procedure to efficiently accomplish this selection process with a relatively small number of simulations using a form of global sensitivity analysis based on sparse regression. The chemical-reaction selection leads to an analysis of the ignition chemistry as it evolves within the compression-ignition engine simulations and allows for the spatial development of the selected chemical reactions to be studied in detail.

Magnotti, Gina M.↗

Single Gaussian process method for arbitrary tokamak regimes with a statistical analysis

Abstract Gaussian process regression is a Bayesian method for inferring profiles based on input data. The technique is increasing in popularity in the fusion community due to its many advantages over traditional fitting techniques including intrinsic uncertainty quantification and robustness to over-fitting. This work investigates the use of a new method, the change-point method, for handling the varying length scales found in different tokamak regimes. The use of the Student’s t-distribution for the Bayesian likelihood probability is also investigated and shown to be advantageous in providing good fits in profiles with many outliers. To compare different methods, synthetic data generated from analytic profiles is used to create a database enabling a quantitative statistical comparison of which methods perform the best. Using a full Bayesian approach with the change-point method, Matérn kernel for the prior probability, and Student’s t-distribution for the likelihood is shown to give the best results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Regression Based Approach for Robust Finite Element Analysis on Arbitrary Grids. LDRD Final Report

This report summarizes the work performed under a one-year LDRD project aiming to enable accurate and robust numerical simulation of partial differential equations for meshes that are of poor quality. Traditional finite element methods use the mesh to both discretize the geometric domain and to define the finite element shape functions. The latter creates a dependence between the quality of the mesh and the properties of the finite element basis that may adversely affect the accuracy of the discretized problem. In this project, we propose a new approach for defining finite element shape functions that breaks this dependence and separates mesh quality from the discretization quality. At the core of the approach is a meshless definition of the shape functions, which limits the purpose of the mesh to representing the geometric domain and integrating the basis functions without having any role in their approximation quality. The resulting non-conforming space can be utilized within a standard discontinuous Galerkin framework providing a rigorous foundation for solving partial differential equations on low-quality meshes. We present a collection of numerical experiments demonstrating our approach in a wide range of settings: strongly coercive elliptic problems, linear elasticity in the compressible regime, and the stationary Stokes problem. We demonstrate convergence for all problems and stability for element pairs for problems which usually require inf-sup compatibility for conforming methods, also referring to a minor modification possible through the symmetric interior penalty Galerkin framework for stabilizing element pairs that would otherwise be traditionally unstable. Mesh robustness is particularly critical for elasticity, and we provide an example that our approach provides a greater than 5x improvement in accuracy and allows for taking an 8x larger stable timestep for a highly deformed mesh, compared to the continuous Galerkin finite element method. The report concludes with a brief summary of ongoing projects and collaborations that utilize or extend the products of this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Decay Curve Correction Analysis Report

The decay curve analysis that is done on the short-lived radionuclide gas samples is used to differentiate between gaseous radionuclides that have the same characteristic gamma decay energy, 511 kiloelectron-volts (keV). A sample of stack gas is isolated and the total counts in the 511 keV peak are counted repeatedly in 10-second intervals to evaluate the decay rate of the sample over time. Analysis of this decay data required a series of steps. First, a raw data report is generated by the gamma acquisition system, based on an analysis template within the acquisition software. The data report file was then loaded into Microsoft Word, and a macro was used to perform minor formatting (remove colons and insert tabs between data columns) to allow analysis within Excel. The file is then saved as a text file at this point. The text file is then uploaded into Excel and a series of macros are used to add labels, calculate radioactive decay constants, and analyze the gamma decay data using linear regression techniques. The analysis template has been used since 1998 for stack 53000303 (TA-53, building 0003, exhaust stack 03) and 2000 for stack 53000702. The overall process, including the gamma report format and the macros used in Word and Excel for processing the report, had remained unchanged until 2015. In October of 2015, staff made a change to the report template in the gamma acquisition software which resulted in an error in the calculations later performed by the Excel macro. This error was not caught until a more in-depth review of the analysis took place regarding 2020 data. This report covers a much more complete review of the issue that occurred regarding the decay curve analysis, a review of the calculations completed to correct the issue, a review of the updated decay curve analysis process, and recommendations for moving forward.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Analysis Framework for Understanding the Origin of Nuclear Activity in Low-power Radio Galaxies

Using large samples containing nearly 2300 active galaxies of low radio luminosity (1.4 GHz luminosity between 2 × 10{sup 23} and 3 × 10{sup 25} W Hz{sup −1}, essentially low-excitation radio galaxies) at z ≲ 0.3, we present a self-contained analysis of the dependence of the nuclear radio activity on both intrinsic and extrinsic properties of galaxies, with the goal of identifying the best predictors of the nuclear radio activity. While confirming the established result that stellar mass must play a key role on the triggering of radio activities, we point out that for the central, most massive galaxies, the radio activity also shows a strong dependence on halo mass, which is not likely due to enhanced interaction rates in denser regions in massive, cluster-scale halos. We thus further investigate the effects of various properties of the intracluster medium (ICM) in massive clusters on the radio activities, employing two standard statistical tools, principle component analysis and logistic regression. It is found that ICM entropy, local cooling time, and pressure are the most effective in predicting the radio activity, pointing to the accretion of gas cooling out of a hot atmosphere to be the likely origin in triggering such activities in galaxies residing in massive dark matter halos. Our analysis framework enables us to logically discern the mechanisms responsible for the radio activity separately for central and satellite galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Small Bowel Dose Parameters Predicting Grade ≥3 Acute Toxicity in Rectal Cancer Patients Treated With Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation: An Independent Validation Study Comparing Peritoneal Space Versus Small Bowel Loop Contouring Techniques

Purpose: To determine whether volumes based on contours of the peritoneal space can be used instead of individual small bowel loops to predict for grade ≥3 acute small bowel toxicity in patients with rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy. Methods and Materials: A standardized contouring method was developed for the peritoneal space and retrospectively applied to the radiation treatment plans of 67 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy for rectal cancer. Dose-volume histogram (DVH) data were extracted and analyzed against patient toxicity. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and logistic regression were carried out for both contouring methods. Results: Grade ≥3 small bowel toxicity occurred in 16% (11/67) of patients in the study. A highly significant dose-volume relationship between small bowel irradiation and acute small bowel toxicity was supported by the use of both small bowel loop and peritoneal space contouring techniques. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that, for both contouring methods, the greatest sensitivity for predicting toxicity was associated with the volume receiving between 15 and 25 Gy. Conclusion: DVH analysis of peritoneal space volumes accurately predicts grade ≥3 small bowel toxicity in patients with rectal cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy, suggesting that the contours of the peritoneal space provide a reasonable surrogate for the contours of individual small bowel loops. The study finds that a small bowel V15 less than 275 cc and a peritoneal space V15 less than 830 cc are associated with a less than 10% risk of grade ≥3 acute toxicity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Effect of Tumor Subtype on Survival and the Graded Prognostic Assessment for Patients With Breast Cancer and Brain Metastases

Purpose: The diagnosis-specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) was published to clarify prognosis for patients with brain metastases. This study refines the existing Breast-GPA by analyzing a larger cohort and tumor subtype. Methods and Materials: A multi-institutional retrospective database of 400 breast cancer patients treated for newly diagnosed brain metastases was generated. Prognostic factors significant for survival were analyzed by multivariate Cox regression and recursive partitioning analysis (RPA). Factors were weighted by the magnitude of their regression coefficients to define the GPA index. Results: Significant prognostic factors by multivariate Cox regression and RPA were Karnofsky performance status (KPS), HER2, ER/PR status, and the interaction between ER/PR and HER2. RPA showed age was significant for patients with KPS 60 to 80. The median survival time (MST) overall was 13.8 months, and for GPA scores of 0 to 1.0, 1.5 to 2.0, 2.5 to 3.0, and 3.5 to 4.0 were 3.4 (n = 23), 7.7 (n = 104), 15.1 (n = 140), and 25.3 (n = 133) months, respectively (p < 0.0001). Among HER2-negative patients, being ER/PR positive improved MST from 6.4 to 9.7 months, whereas in HER2-positive patients, being ER/PR positive improved MST from 17.9 to 20.7 months. The log-rank statistic (predictive power) was 110 for the Breast-GPA vs. 55 for tumor subtype. Conclusions: The Breast-GPA documents wide variation in prognosis and shows clear separation between subgroups of patients with breast cancer and brain metastases. This tool will aid clinical decision making and stratification in clinical trials. These data confirm the effect of tumor subtype on survival and show the Breast-GPA offers significantly more predictive power than the tumor subtype alone.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Stellarator Design Exploration Using Symbolic-Regression Neutronics Surrogates

Systems codes require fast, simplified models to rapidly evaluate fusion power plant concepts, but neutronics analyses are often a computational bottleneck. Here, to address this, surrogate models for key neutronics responses have been developed using 3-D neutronics-ready models built with the open-source code ParaStell from a database of stellarator equilibria. Neutronics responses such as tritium breeding ratio (TBR), nuclear heating, and neutron-induced radiation damage displacements per atom (dpa) were simulated using OpenMC. Through sensitivity analysis and symbolic regression (SR), simple power-law formulas were derived connecting these neutronics responses to global stellarator parameters, including fusion power, plasma surface area, and plasma elongation. Validation shows these formulas can predict the simulation results with low error, enabling quick and accurate assessment of neutronics requirements in stellarator design exploration activities with systems codes.

Modeling↗

Predicting Radiation Pneumonitis After Chemoradiation Therapy for Lung Cancer: An International Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

Background: Radiation pneumonitis is a dose-limiting toxicity for patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis to determine factors predictive of clinically significant pneumonitis. Methods and Materials: After a systematic review of the literature, data were obtained on 836 patients who underwent CCRT in Europe, North America, and Asia. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets (two-thirds vs one-third of patients). Factors predictive of symptomatic pneumonitis (grade {>=}2 by 1 of several scoring systems) or fatal pneumonitis were evaluated using logistic regression. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to define risk groups. Results: The median radiation therapy dose was 60 Gy, and the median follow-up time was 2.3 years. Most patients received concurrent cisplatin/etoposide (38%) or carboplatin/paclitaxel (26%). The overall rate of symptomatic pneumonitis was 29.8% (n=249), with fatal pneumonitis in 1.9% (n=16). In the training set, factors predictive of symptomatic pneumonitis were lung volume receiving {>=}20 Gy (V{sub 20}) (odds ratio [OR] 1.03 per 1% increase, P=.008), and carboplatin/paclitaxel chemotherapy (OR 3.33, P<.001), with a trend for age (OR 1.24 per decade, P=.09); the model remained predictive in the validation set with good discrimination in both datasets (c-statistic >0.65). On RPA, the highest risk of pneumonitis (>50%) was in patients >65 years of age receiving carboplatin/paclitaxel. Predictors of fatal pneumonitis were daily dose >2 Gy, V{sub 20}, and lower-lobe tumor location. Conclusions: Several treatment-related risk factors predict the development of symptomatic pneumonitis, and elderly patients who undergo CCRT with carboplatin-paclitaxel chemotherapy are at highest risk. Fatal pneumonitis, although uncommon, is related to dosimetric factors and tumor location.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Impact of Bone Marrow Radiation Dose on Acute Hematologic Toxicity in Cervical Cancer: Principal Component Analysis on High Dimensional Data

Purpose: To study the effects of increasing pelvic bone marrow (BM) radiation dose on acute hematologic toxicity in patients undergoing chemoradiotherapy, using a novel modeling approach to preserve the local spatial dose information. Methods and Materials: The study included 37 cervical cancer patients treated with concurrent weekly cisplatin and pelvic radiation therapy. The white blood cell count nadir during treatment was used as the indicator for acute hematologic toxicity. Pelvic BM radiation dose distributions were standardized across patients by registering the pelvic BM volumes to a common template, followed by dose remapping using deformable image registration, resulting in a dose array. Principal component (PC) analysis was applied to the dose array, and the significant eigenvectors were identified by linear regression on the PCs. The coefficients for PC regression and significant eigenvectors were represented in three dimensions to identify critical BM subregions where dose accumulation is associated with hematologic toxicity. Results: We identified five PCs associated with acute hematologic toxicity. PC analysis regression modeling explained a high proportion of the variation in acute hematologicity (adjusted R{sup 2}, 0.49). Three-dimensional rendering of a linear combination of the significant eigenvectors revealed patterns consistent with anatomical distributions of hematopoietically active BM. Conclusions: We have developed a novel approach that preserves spatial dose information to model effects of radiation dose on toxicity, which may be useful in optimizing radiation techniques to avoid critical subregions of normal tissues. Further validation of this approach in a large cohort is ongoing.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Machine learning models for rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity prediction

Reproductive toxicity is one of the prominent endpoints in the risk assessment of environmental and industrial chemicals. Due to the complexity of the reproductive system, traditional reproductive toxicity testing in animals, especially guideline multigeneration reproductive toxicity studies, take a long time and are expensive. Therefore, machine learning, as a promising alternative approach, should be considered when evaluating the reproductive toxicity of chemicals. We curated rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity testing data of 275 chemicals from ToxRefDB (Toxicity Reference Database) and developed predictive models using seven machine learning algorithms (decision tree, decision forest, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and logistic regression). A consensus model was built based on the seven individual models. An external validation set was curated from the COSMOS database and the literature. The performances of individual and consensus models were evaluated using 500 iterations of 5-fold cross-validations and the external validation data set. The balanced accuracy of the models ranged from 58% to 65% in the 5-fold cross-validations and 45%–61% in the external validations. Prediction confidence analysis was conducted to provide additional information for more appropriate applications of the developed models. The impact of our findings is in increasing confidence in machine learning models. We demonstrate the importance of using consensus models for harnessing the benefits of multiple machine learning models (i.e., using redundant systems to check validity of outcomes). While we continue to build upon the models to better characterize weak toxicants, there is current utility in saving resources by being able to screen out strong reproductive toxicants before investing in vivo testing. The modeling approach (machine learning models) is offered for assessing the rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity of chemicals. Our results suggest that machine learning may be a promising alternative approach to evaluate the potential reproductive toxicity of chemicals.

consensus model↗

Analysis of Lung Tumor Motion in a Large Sample: Patterns and Factors Influencing Precise Delineation of Internal Target Volume

Purpose/Objective: To evaluate lung tumor motion during respiration and to describe factors affecting the range and variability of motion in patients treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: Log file analysis from online respiratory tumor tracking was performed in 145 patients. Geometric tumor location in the lungs, tumor volume and origin (primary or metastatic), sex, and tumor motion amplitudes in the superior-inferior (SI), latero-lateral (LL), and anterior-posterior (AP) directions were recorded. Tumor motion variability during treatment was described using intrafraction/interfraction amplitude variability and tumor motion baseline changes. Tumor movement dependent on the tumor volume, position and origin, and sex were evaluated using statistical regression and correlation analysis. Results: After analysis of >500 hours of data, the highest rates of motion amplitudes, intrafraction/interfraction variation, and tumor baseline changes were in the SI direction (6.0 ± 2.2 mm, 2.2 ± 1.8 mm, 1.1 ± 0.9 mm, and −0.1 ± 2.6 mm). The mean motion amplitudes in the lower/upper geometric halves of the lungs were significantly different (P<.001). Motion amplitudes >15 mm were observed only in the lower geometric quarter of the lungs. Higher tumor motion amplitudes generated higher intrafraction variations (R=.86, P<.001). Interfraction variations and baseline changes >3 mm indicated tumors contacting mediastinal structures or parietal pleura. On univariate analysis, neither sex nor tumor origin (primary vs metastatic) was an independent predictive factor of different movement patterns. Metastatic lesions in women, but not men, showed significantly higher mean amplitudes (P=.03) and variability (primary, 2.7 mm; metastatic, 4.9 mm; P=.002) than primary tumors. Conclusion: Online tracking showed significant irregularities in lung tumor movement during respiration. Motion amplitude was significantly lower in upper lobe tumors; higher interfraction amplitude variability indicated tumors in contact with mediastinal structures, although adhesion to parietal pleura did not necessarily reduce tumor motion amplitudes. The most variable lung tumors were metastatic lesions in women.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗