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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Future marine biofuels in the port of Seattle region

Marine transportation, a vital global sector, emits 3% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions, which are predicted to increase in the future. Marine biofuels derived from biomass or waste sources like wood residue, waste oil and municipal solid waste can be used for decarbonization. However, limited studies have explored if sufficient marine biofuels could be produced and supplied to major regional ports given feedstock, supply chain and technological constraints. We fill this gap by evaluating the feasibility of supplying marine biofuels to the Port of Seattle. The Regional Bio-Economy Model (RBEM) and the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT) are used to build scenarios for simulating marine biofuel production in the Port region. We harmonized technoeconomic assumptions for RBEM and FTOT, input FTOT feedstock utilization and routing outputs into RBEM, and modelled conversion, feedstock, and policy scenario variations in RBEM. In RBEM, overall biofuel production was constrained primarily by the biofuel cost, and then by feedstock availability. Providing policy incentives and reducing permitting time frames alleviated these constraints and spurred the buildout of a robust industry through industrial learning dynamics in the initial years. With these measures in place, the RBEM results show that 100% of fuel demand at the Port can be supplied by biofuels with policy incentives and suitable technoeconomic conditions, but the addition of transportation cost considerations using FTOT led to 27.8% of demand being able to be met by biofuels at reasonable fuel delivery cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Weather@home2 Simulations over West African Region

Weather and climate forecasting, using climate models, have become essential tools and life-savers in the West African region; in spite of the fact that climate models do not fully comply with attributes of forecast qualities—RASAP: reliability, association, skill, accuracy, and precision. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate, in comparison to CRU and ERA5 datasets, the RASAP compliance-level of the weather@home2 modeling system (w@h2). Findings from some statistical evaluations show that, to a moderately significant extent, w@h2 model provides useful information during the monsoon seasons; skills to capture the Little Dry Season over the Guinea zone; predictive skills for the onset season; ability to reproduce all the annual characteristics of the surface maximum air temperature over the region; as well as skill to detect heat waves that usually ravage West Africa during the boreal spring. The model displays traces of attributes that are needed for seasonal climate predictions and applications. Deficiencies in the quantitative reproducibility point to the facts that the model does provide a reliability akin to that of regional climate models. This paper further furnishes a prospective user with information on whether the model might be “useful or not” for a particular application.

West Africa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Regional and Seasonal Characteristics on Battery Electric Vehicle Operational Costs in the U.S.

This study investigates the operational cost competitiveness of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the United States, considering regional climates, energy prices, and driving patterns. By comparing BEVs with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and the alternative use of BEVs and conventional vehicles (Convs), the analysis incorporates thermal dynamometer tests, real-world vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and state-specific energy prices. Using detailed simulations, the study evaluates energy consumption across varying temperatures and driving distances. The findings reveal that, while BEVs remain cost-effective for short trips in moderate climates, PHEVs are more economical for long-range trips and cold environments, due to the excessive cost of using external direct current fast chargers (DCFCs) and reduced BEV efficiency at low temperatures. HEVs are identified as the most cost-efficient option in regions like New England, characterized by high residential electricity prices. These insights are critical for shaping vehicle electrification strategies, particularly under diverse regional and seasonal conditions, and for advancing policies on alternative energy and fuels.

Kim, Kyung-Ho (ORCID:0009000450851732)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deoptimization of FMDV P1 Region Results in Robust Serotype-Independent Viral Attenuation

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), caused by the FMD virus (FMDV), is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed livestock that can have severe economic impacts. Control and prevention strategies, including the development of improved vaccines, are urgently needed to effectively control FMD outbreaks in endemic settings. Previously, we employed two distinct strategies (codon pair bias deoptimization (CPD) and codon bias deoptimization (CD)) to deoptimize various regions of the FMDV serotype A subtype A12 genome, which resulted in the development of an attenuated virus in vitro and in vivo, inducing varying levels of humoral responses. In the current study, we examined the versatility of the system by using CPD applied to the P1 capsid coding region of FMDV serotype A subtype, A24, and another serotype, Asia1. Viruses carrying recoded P1 (A24-P1Deopt or Asia1-P1Deopt) exhibited different degrees of attenuation (i.e., delayed viral growth kinetics and replication) in cultured cells. Studies in vivo using a mouse model of FMD demonstrated that inoculation with the A24-P1Deopt and Asia1-P1Deopt strains elicited a strong humoral immune response capable of offering protection against challenge with homologous wildtype (WT) viruses. However, different results were obtained in pigs. While clear attenuation was detected for both the A24-P1Deopt and Asia1-P1Deopt strains, only a limited induction of adaptive immunity and protection against challenge was detected, depending on the inoculated dose and serotype deoptimized. Our work demonstrates that while CPD of the P1 coding region attenuates viral strains of multiple FMDV serotypes/subtypes, a thorough assessment of virulence and induction of adaptive immunity in the natural host is required in each case in order to finely adjust the degree of deoptimization required for attenuation without affecting the induction of protective adaptive immune responses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning

Stream temperature (Ts) is an important water quality parameter that affects ecosystem health and human water use for beneficial purposes. Accurate Ts predictions at different spatial and temporal scales can inform water management decisions that account for the effects of changing climate and extreme events. In particular, widespread predictions of Ts in unmonitored stream reaches can enable decision makers to be responsive to changes caused by unforeseen disturbances. In this study, we demonstrate the use of classical machine learning (ML) models, support vector regression and gradient boosted trees (XGBoost), for monthly Ts predictions in 78 pristine and human-impacted catchments of the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Northwest hydrologic regions spanning different geologies, climate, and land use. The ML models were trained using long-term monitoring data from 1980–2020 for three scenarios: (1) temporal predictions at a single site, (2) temporal predictions for multiple sites within a region, and (3) spatiotemporal predictions in unmonitored basins (PUB). In the first two scenarios, the ML models predicted Ts with median root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 0.69–0.84 °C and 0.92–1.02 °C across different model types for the temporal predictions at single and multiple sites respectively. For the PUB scenario, we used a bootstrap aggregation approach using models trained with different subsets of data, for which an ensemble XGBoost implementation outperformed all other modeling configurations (median RMSE 0.62 °C).The ML models improved median monthly Ts estimates compared to baseline statistical multi-linear regression models by 15–48% depending on the site and scenario. Air temperature was found to be the primary driver of monthly Ts for all sites, with secondary influence of month of the year (seasonality) and solar radiation, while discharge was a significant predictor at only 10 sites. The predictive performance of the ML models was robust to configuration changes in model setup and inputs, but was influenced by the distance to the nearest dam with RMSE <1 °C at sites situated greater than 16 and 44 km from a dam for the temporal single site and regional scenarios, and over 1.4 km from a dam for the PUB scenario. Our results show that classical ML models with solely meteorological inputs can be used for spatial and temporal predictions of monthly Ts in pristine and managed basins with reasonable (<1 °C) accuracy for most locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of multi-active region p-down green LEDs with high quantum efficiency

Abstract Longer wavelength emitters such as green LEDs display a pronounced efficiency drop at higher current densities, resulting in relatively low wall-plug efficiency (WPE). Multi-active region approach can improve the WPE significantly and tackle the “green gap” challenge. This work reports multi-active region p-down LEDs with high external efficiency operating entirely in the green wavelength. Devices were developed using p-down topology, where the PN junction is oriented such that electric fields from depletion and built-in polarization dipoles are aligned. Ga-polar multi-active region green LEDs with excellent voltage and external quantum efficiency scaling, and significantly higher WPE is demonstrated in this work.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Random Forest Approach to Identifying Young Stellar Object Candidates in the Lupus Star-forming Region

The identification and characterization of stellar members within a star-forming region are critical to many aspects of star formation, including formalization of the initial mass function, circumstellar disk evolution, and star formation history. Previous surveys of the Lupus star-forming region have identified members through infrared excess and accretion signatures. We use machine learning to identify new candidate members of Lupus based on surveys from two space-based observatories: ESA’s Gaia and NASA’s Spitzer. Astrometric measurements from Gaia's Data Release 2 and astrometric and photometric data from the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope, as well as from other surveys, are compiled into a catalog for the random forest (RF) classifier. The RF classifiers are tested to find the best features, membership list, non-membership identification scheme, imputation method, training set class weighting, and method of dealing with class imbalance within the data. We list 27 candidate members of the Lupus star-forming region for spectroscopic follow-up. Most of the candidates lie in Clouds V and VI, where only one confirmed member of Lupus was previously known. These clouds likely represent a slightly older population of star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Dynamics of Interstellar Asteroids and Comets within the Galaxy: An Assessment of Local Candidate Source Regions for 1I/’Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov

The low velocity of interstellar asteroid 1I/’Oumuamua with respect to our galaxy’s local standard of rest implies that it is young. Adopting the young age hypothesis, we assess possible origin systems for this interstellar asteroid and for 2I/Borisov, though the latter’s higher speed means it is unlikely to be young. First, their past trajectories are modeled under gravitational scattering by galactic components (“disk heating”) to assess how far back one can trace them. The stochastic nature of disk heating means that a back integration can only expect to be accurate to within 15 pc and 2 km s{sup −1} at −10 Myr, dropping steeply to 400 pc and 10 km s{sup −1} at −100 Myr, sharply limiting our ability to determine a precise origin. Nevertheless, we show that ’Oumuamua’s origin system likely is currently within 1 kpc of Earth, in the local Orion Arm. Second, we back integrate ’Oumuamua’s trajectory in order to assess source regions, emphasizing young systems and moving groups. Though disk heating allows for only a statistical link to source regions, ’Oumuamua passed through a considerable subset of the Carina and Columba moving groups when those groups were forming. This makes them perhaps the most plausible source region, if ’Oumuamua was ejected during planet formation or via intra-cluster interactions. We find three stars in the Ursa Major group, one brown dwarf, and seven other stars to have plausible encounters with 2I/Borisov, within 2 pc and 30 km s{sup −1}. These encounters’ high relative speeds mean none are likely to be the home of 2I/Borisov.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Census of the Young Stellar Population in the Galactic H ii Region Sh2-242

We present here identification and characterization of the young stellar population associated with an active star-forming site Sh2-242. We used our own new optical imaging and spectroscopic observational data, as well as several archival catalogs, e.g., Pan-STARRS 1, Gaia DR2, IPHAS, Wide-field InfraRed Camera, 2MASS, and Spitzer. Slit spectroscopic results confirm the classification of the main ionizing source BD+26 980 as an early-type star of spectral type B0.5 V. The spectrophotometric distance of the star is estimated as 2.08 ± 0.24 kpc, which confirms the source as a member of the cluster. An extinction map covering a large area (diameter ∼50′) is generated with H and K photometry toward the region. From the map, three distinct locations of peak extinction complexes (A {sub V} ≃ 7–17 mag) are identified for the very first time. Using the infrared color excess, a total of 33 Class I and 137 Class II young objects are classified within the region. The IPHAS photometry reveals classification of 36 Hα emitting sources, which might be class II objects. Among 36 Hα emitting sources, 5 are already identified using infrared excess emission. In total, 201 young objects are classified toward S242 from this study. The membership status of the young sources is further windowed with the inclusion of parallax from the Gaia DR2 catalog. Using the optical and infrared color–magnitude diagrams, the young stellar objects are characterized with an average age of ∼1 Myr and masses in the range 0.1–3.0 M {sub ☉}. The census of the stellar content within the region is discussed using combined photometric and spectroscopic data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fermi-LAT View on Three Ultra-high-energy 1LHAASO Sources in the 52° < l < 55° Region

Using more than 17 yr of Fermi-LAT data, we performed a detailed investigation of the complex 52° < l < 55° region, which encompasses the three ultra-high-energy sources 1LHAASO J1928+1746u, 1LHAASO J1928+1813u, and 1LHAASO J1929+1846u. This region hosts multiple supernova remnants (SNRs), pulsars, GeV and TeV sources. Our analysis resolves the GeV emission into three pointlike sources (J1925+1729P, J1930+1851P, and J1932+1916P) and two extended sources (J1929+1732E and J1930+1826E), and improves significantly on the description based on the 4FGL-DR4 catalog. Source J1932+1916P is identified as the known gamma-ray pulsar PSR J1932+1916, while J1925+1729P may be a new gamma-ray pulsar candidate distinct from the known gamma-ray pulsar PSR J1925+1720. This warrants future investigation and a search for pulsations. Source J1930+1851P coincides with the TeV source PWN/SNR G54.1+0.3, and its GeV−TeV spectrum is consistent with both leptonic and hadronic interpretations, although a leptonic origin in relation to the known pulsar wind nebula (PWN) is more likely. The GeV−TeV spectrum of J1929+1732E is consistent with a hybrid lepto-hadronic scenario in which the TeV emission traces the PWN powered by the pulsar PSR J1928+1746, while the GeV emission may result from interactions between particles escaped from the parent SNR and illuminating the gas environment. Similarly, J1930+1826E is likely connected to PWN/SNR G54.1+0.3 under a hadronic scenario involving escaped particles in their early propagation stage. Owing to spectral and/or morphological mismatches, the connection of these five GeV sources to the three LHAASO sources is not clear. This warrants deeper observations with HAWC and LHAASO, and a dedicated study of the modeling of the Galactic diffuse emission. Future CTAO observations with higher angular resolution are expected to deliver crucial information for the study of this region.

Liu, Linjie [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Ku↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical Modulation of Solar Flare Electron Acceleration due to Plasmoid-shock Interactions in the Looptop Region

A fast-mode shock can form in the front of reconnection outflows and has been suggested as a promising site for particle acceleration in solar flares. Recent developments in the study of magnetic reconnection have shown that numerous plasmoids can be produced in a large-scale current layer. Here we investigate the dynamical modulation of electron acceleration in the looptop region when plasmoids intermittently arrive at the shock by combining magnetohydrodynamics simulations with a particle kinetic model. As plasmoids interact with the shock, the looptop region exhibits various compressible structures that modulate the production of energetic electrons. The energetic electron population varies rapidly in both time and space. The number of 5–10 keV electrons correlates well with the compression area, while that of >50 keV electrons shows good correlation with the strong compression area but only moderate correlation with shock parameters. We further examine the impacts of the first plasmoid, which marks the transition from a quasi-steady shock front to a distorted and dynamical shock. The number of energetic electrons is reduced by ~20% at 15–25 keV and nearly 40% for 25–50 keV, while the number of 5–10 keV electrons increases. In addition, the electron energy spectrum above 10 keV evolves softer with time. We also find that double or even multiple distinct sources can develop in the looptop region when the plasmoids move across the shock. Our simulations have strong implications to the interpretation of nonthermal looptop sources, as well as the commonly observed fast temporal variations in flare emissions, including the quasi-periodic pulsations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Chocolate Chip Cookie Model: Dust-to-metal Ratio of H ii Regions

Using a sample of face-on star-forming galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we statistically derive the typical optical depth $\tau$ cl of individual H II regions based on the "Chocolate Chip Cookie" model of Lu et al. (2022). By binning galaxies into stellar mass and gas-phase metallicity bins and interpreting $\tau$ cl as the dust-to-gas ratio (DGR) of H II regions, we further investigate the correlations between DGR and stellar mass and between DGR and gas-phase metallicity, respectively. We find that DGR increases monotonically with the stellar mass of galaxies. At a given stellar mass, DGR shows a linear correlation with the gas-phase metallicity, which implies a constant dust-to-metal ratio (DTM) of galaxies at a given stellar mass. These results adequately indicate that the DTM of galaxies is simply a function of their stellar masses. In terms of gas-phase metallicity, because of the mass–metallicity relation, DTM increases with increasing metallicity with a power-law index 1.45 in the low-metallicity region, while it remains constant at the high-metallicity end.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain

This study presents a new physical-biogeochemical modelling framework for simulating lake methane (CH 4 ) emissions at regional scales. The new model, FLaMe-v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane), rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach that enables the simulation of CH 4 emissions across a large number of lakes. Building on the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM) that simulates the lake physics, we develop a suite of biogeochemical modules to simulate transient dynamics of organic Carbon (C), Oxygen (O 2 ), and CH 4 . We first test the performance of FLaMe-v1.0 by analyzing physical and biogeochemical processes in two theoretical lakes with characteristics that can be considered representative for many lakes (an oligotrophic, deep lake driven by cold climate versus a eutrophic, shallow lake driven by warm climate). Next, we evaluate the model by comparing simulated and observed timeseries of CH 4 emissions in four well-surveyed lakes. We then apply FLaMe-v1.0 at the European scale to evaluate simulated diffusive and ebullitive lake CH 4 fluxes against in-situ measurements in both boreal and central European regions. Finally, we provide a first assessment of the spatio-temporal variability in CH 4 emissions from European lakes with a surface area comprised between 0.1–1000 km 2 (n= 108 407, total area = 1.33 × 105 km 2 ), indicating a total emission of 0.97 ± 0.23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , with the uncertainty constrained by combining FLaMe-v1.0 and machine learning techniques. Moreover, 30 % and 70 % of these CH 4 emissions are through diffusive and ebullitive pathways, respectively. Annually averaged CH 4 emission rates per unit lake area during 2010–2016 have a South-to-North decreasing gradient, resulting in a mean over the European domain as 7.39 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1 . Our simulations reveal a strong seasonality (with ice-blocking effects accounted for) in European lake CH 4 emissions, with nearly ten times higher emissions during late summer than during winter. This pronounced seasonal variation highlights the importance of accounting for the sub-annual variability in CH 4 emissions to accurately constrain regional CH 4 budgets. In the future, FLaMe-v1.0 could be embedded into Earth System Models to investigate the feedback between climate warming and global lake CH 4 emissions.

Maisonnier, Manon [Free Univ. of Brussels (Belgium↗
DOE OSTI2023

The HTAP_v3 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2018) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the global and regional atmospheric modelling community's need of a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3, an ad hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including Japan and South Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO $x$ , CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1º × 0.1º and time intervals of months and years, covering the period 2000–2018. The emissions are further disaggregated into 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past 2 decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policymaking, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2020) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the need of the global and regional atmospheric modelling community of having a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of a high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3.2, an ad-hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, is an update to the HTAP_v3 global mosaic inventory and has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including China, Japan and Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO x , CO, NMVOC, NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , Black Carbon (BC), and Organic Carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° and time intervals of months and years covering the period 2000–2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17086684, Crippa, 2025, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v32, last access: 27 October 2025). The emissions are further disaggregated to 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past two decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policy making, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Ispra (Ital↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining regional mesh refinement with vertically enhanced physics to target marine stratocumulus biases as demonstrated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1

Abstract. In this paper we develop a novel framework aimed to significantly reduce biases related to marine stratocumulus clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) while circumventing excessive computational cost requirements. Our strategy is to increase the horizontal resolution using a regionally refined mesh (RRM) over our region of interest in addition to using the Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE) to increase the vertical resolution only for specific physical processes that are important for stratocumulus. We apply the RRM off the coast of Peru in the southeastern Pacific, a region that climatologically contains the most marine stratocumulus in the subtropics. We find that our new modeling framework is able to replicate the results of our high-resolution benchmark simulation with much fidelity, while reducing the computational cost by several orders of magnitude. In addition, this framework is able to greatly reduce the long-standing biases associated with marine stratocumulus in GCMs when compared to the standard-resolution control simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in a regionally refined global aerosol–climate model

Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosol and their precursors are often prescribed in global aerosol models. Most of these emissions are spatially heterogeneous at model grid scales. When remapped from low-resolution data, the spatial heterogeneity in emissions can be lost, leading to large errors in the simulation. It can also cause the conservation problem if non-conservative remapping is used. The default anthropogenic emission treatment in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is subject to both problems. In this study, we introduce a revised emission treatment for the E3SM Atmosphere Model (EAM) that ensures conservation of mass fluxes and preserves the original emission heterogeneity at the model-resolved grid scale. We assess the error estimates associated with the default emission treatment and the impact of improved heterogeneity and mass conservation in both globally uniform standard-resolution (∼ 165 km) and regionally refined high-resolution (∼ 42 km) simulations. The default treatment incurs significant errors near the surface, particularly over sharp emission gradient zones. Much larger errors are observed in high-resolution simulations. It substantially underestimates the aerosol burden, surface concentration, and aerosol sources over highly polluted regions, while it overestimates these quantities over less-polluted adjacent areas. Large errors can persist at higher elevation for daily mean estimates, which can affect aerosol extinction profiles and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We find that the revised treatment significantly improves the accuracy of the aerosol emissions from surface and elevated sources near sharp spatial gradient regions, with significant improvement in the spatial heterogeneity and variability of simulated surface concentration in high-resolution simulations. In the next-generation E3SM running at convection-permitting scales where the resolved spatial heterogeneity is significantly increased, the revised emission treatment is expected to better represent the aerosol emissions as well as their lifecycle and impacts on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗