Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “prediction methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Stanford Thermal Earth Model for the Conterminous United States

Provided here are various forms of the Stanford Thermal Earth Model, as well as the data and methods used for its creation. The predictions produced by this model were visualized in two-dimensional spatial maps across the modeled depths (0-7 km) for the conterminous United States. The thermal earth model is made available as an application programming interface (API) and as feature layers on ArcGIS, which are both provided via links below. A data-driven spatial interpolation algorithm based on physics-informed graph neural networks was used to develop these national temperature-at-depth maps. The model satisfied the three-dimensional heat conduction law by predicting subsurface temperature, surface heat flow, and rock thermal conductivity. Many physical quantities, including bottomhole temperature, depth, geographic coordinates, elevation, sediment thickness, magnetic anomaly, gravity anomaly, gamma-ray flux of radioactive elements, seismicity, and electric conductivity were used as model inputs. Surface heat flow, temperature, and thermal conductivity predictions were constructed for depths of 0-7 km at an interval of 1 km with spatial resolution of 18 km2 per grid cell. The model showed superior temperature, surface heat flow and thermal conductivity mean absolute errors of 4.8C, 8.1 mW/m2 and 0.07 W/(C-m), respectively..

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Phase-field-guided design of record-high piezoelectricity and discovery of simultaneous high light transparency and high piezoelectricity in relaxor ferroelectrics

Here, the phase-field method has been extensively applied to predicting the domain structures and their responses to external fields and understanding experimentally observed domain states under different electromechanical conditions in ferroelectric heterostructures. This article highlights the successful examples of phase-field applications in guiding the design of relaxor ferroelectric ceramics and crystals with record-high piezoelectricity and the discovery of simultaneous high light transparency and piezoelectricity of relaxor ferroelectric crystals for a wide range of biomedical, robotics, and optoelectronics applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Imaging Wavepackets in Real-Space & Disentangling Ultrafast Solvation Dynamics with High-Energy Ultrafast X-ray Scattering

The microscopic information of solute and solute-solvent motions can be measured using ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering, and compared to molecular dynamics simulations, as demonstrated in studies of solvated molecular systems done in X-ray free-electron lasers. However, for the typical photon energies used in these experiments, the photon momentum transfer range was limited to lower Q values where the signals arising from different parts of the studied system overlap significantly. Recently, this limitation was greatly alleviated by extending the photon energy at the Linac Coherent Light-Source (LCLS), significantly increasing the accessible momentum transfer range. This improvement is transformative for ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering measurements, enabling for the first time to disentangle the solute scattering difference signal, that persists to higher Q values, from the bulk solvent and solute-solvent cross-terms difference signals. In addition, it enhances the prediction ability of modeling and simulation methods such as the hybrid QM/MM approach. The extended Q range also opens the way to resolve in real-space details regarding coherent wavepackets motions beyond their center-of-mass positions. Here, we present the first results on high-energy (18keV) diffuse x-ray scattering in solution, demonstrating high fidelity time-resolved scattering and analysis of the photoexcited model photocatalysts PtPOP ([Pt2(POP)4]4-), and IrDimen ([Ir2(dimen)4]2+) in several solvents. These complexes provide ideal systems for demonstrating the ability of high-Q ultrafast scattering and QM/MM simulations to decompose ultrafast solvation dynamics into specific changes in the solute-solvent pair distribution function with a particular focus on how electronically excited states change the interaction between the solvent and photo-catalytically active metal sites. We introduce an approach to further utilize the high-energy capability and demonstrate a single-shot ultra-wide-angle X-ray Scattering modality using two perpendicular detectors, spanning a scattering angle range of more than 100 degrees, allowing to extend the accessible momentum transfer range up to Q~14 Å-1. We develop a model-free method to invert the x-ray scattering signals and enable the recovery of multiple pair-density motions that happen simultaneously, allowing us to directly measure in real-space nuclear wavepacket motions. . [1] Natan, Adi. "Real-Space Inversion and Super-Resolution of Ultrafast X-ray Scattering using Natural Scattering Kernels." arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.05576 (2021)

Natan, Adi↗

Benchmark Specification for FFTF LOFWOS Test #13

The Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) at the Hanford site in Washington was designed by the Westinghouse Electric Corporation for the U.S. Department of Energy. FFTF was a 400 MW thermal, oxide-fueled, liquid sodium cooled test reactor, built to assist development and testing of advanced fuels and materials for fast breeder reactors. After reaching criticality in 1980, FFTF operated until 1992, providing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) with the means to test fuels, materials, and other components in a fast neutron flux environment. In July 1986, a series of unprotected transients (with the plant protection system intentionally disabled) were performed in FFTF as part of the passive safety demonstration program. Among these were thirteen loss of flow without scram (LOFWOS) tests. The goals of this program included confirming the liquid metal reactor safety margins, providing data for computer code validation, and demonstrating the inherent and passive safety benefits of specific design features. The test defined in this benchmark is LOFWOS Test #13, which was initiated at 50% power and 100% flow with the pump pony motors turned off. This benchmark specification is intended to support collaborative efforts within international partnerships on the validation of simulation tools and models in the area of Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) safety. Validated tools and models are needed to evaluate SFR inherent safety characteristics and assess the impact of passive design features in response to accident initiators. Comparisons with experimental data and the results of safety analyses from other groups create unique opportunities to improve predictive capabilities of computational codes and methods for SFR modeling and simulation. The conditions of the LOFWOS test along with the feedback from FFTF’s limited free bow core restraint system and the novel passive reactivity control Gas-Expansion Modules (GEMs) pose a very challenging and uniquely valuable benchmark exercise.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Attack Surface Analysis of the Digital Twins interface with Advanced Sensor and Instrumentation Interfaces: Cyber Threat Assessment and Attack Demonstration for Digital Twins in Advanced Reactor Architectures

A digital twin is a virtual representation of a physical system or object using real-time data that can predict and analyze how the system or object performs. This relatively new technology can be applied to the field of nuclear power generation, to aid in the design and development of new nuclear power plants and reduce operation costs using predictive maintenance and other data analytical methods. While there are already companies utilizing simulation software to train operators and technicians in the nuclear industry, some are now transitioning to utilizing their existing technology, software, and methods to develop digital twin solutions for the next generation of nuclear power plants, offering their services to utilities and government organizations around the world.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Predicting long-term stress relaxation on Alloy 709 using the crystal plasticity finite element method

This report summarizes the results of physics-based, crystal plasticity simulations for the long-term stress relaxation behavior of Alloy 709. The purpose of the study was to provide insight into five key questions related to long-term behavior in high temperatures materials which are difficult or impossible to answer experimentally: (1) is there a threshold stress for long-term relaxation? (2) is there strain threshold for relaxation damage, below which significant damage does not accumulate? (3) does damage continue to accumulate as the material relaxes or will damage accumulation plateau under some loading conditions? (4) does stress relaxation loading inevitably lead to failure? and (5) which, if any, engineering models for relaxation damage accumulation reasonably match the simulation results? The report summarizes the numerical simulations used to address these five questions and provides at least partial answers to each question.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Flexible AI Models for Grid Resilience

The rapid growth in size and complexity of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models has led to increased energy demands, posing a threat to the reliability of the existing power grid. This project addresses the challenge of highly intermittent and energy-intensive inference workloads by (1) developing fidelity-adaptive neural networks capable of dynamic response to grid conditions and (2) integrating these networks with power flow simulations to assess their impact on power grid reliability. We will explore both top-down and bottom-up approaches to create hierarchies of submodels that provide a controlled trade-off between power draw and prediction accuracy. The top-down method utilizes NN pruning to reduce a flagship model into progressively smaller, energy-efficient variants. The bottom-up approach employs geometrically principled weight setting strategies to construct depth-efficient models from the ground up. A real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform will be developed to simulate a scaled AC power grid, integrating live AI workload power draw and enabling dynamic model switching in response to grid feedback. This work will provide a novel framework for evaluating the impact of flexible AI/ML workloads on grid performance and establish new methodologies for energy-aware computing in data centers. The outcomes will demonstrate that adaptive AI/ML can play a critical role in improving grid stability while advancing NREL's leadership in energy-efficient computing research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analytical Dynamic Aperture Calculation Compared to Tracking Results

In studying dynamic aperture in the storage rings, it is becoming increasing beneficial to understand the growth of the fractal boundary of the dynamic aperture without tracking for millions of turns in a hadron ring. This note describes the J. Gao theory applied to the Electron Ion Collider (EIC) Hadron Storage Ring (HSR) and compares simulation results to theoretical predictions to show that the analytical method may prove useful in quick determinations of improved dynamic aperture based on sextupole and octupole configurations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Genome-wide identification of novel flagellar motility genes in Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato DC3000

Pseudomonas syringaepv.tomatoDC3000 (PstDC3000) is a plant pathogenic bacterium that possesses complicated motility regulation pathways including a typical chemotaxis system. A significant portion of our understanding about the genes functioning inPstDC3000 motility is based on comparison to other bacteria. This leaves uncertainty about whether gene functions are conserved, especially since specific regulatory modules can have opposite functions in sets ofPseudomonas. In this study, we used a competitive selection to enrich for mutants with altered swimming motility and used random barcode transposon-site sequencing (RB-TnSeq) to identify genes with significant roles in swimming motility. Besides many of the known or predicted chemotaxis and motility genes, our method identified PSPTO_0406 (dipA), PSPTO_1042 (chrR) and PSPTO_4229 (hypothetical protein) as novel motility regulators. PSPTO_0406 is a homolog ofdipA, a known cyclic di-GMP degrading enzyme inP. aeruginosa. PSPTO_1042 is part of an extracytoplasmic sensing system that controls gene expression in response to reactive oxygen species, suggesting that PSPTO_1042 may function as part of a mechanism that enablesPstDC3000 to alter motility when encountering oxidative stressors. PSPTO_4229 encodes a protein containing an HD-related output domain (HDOD), but with no previously identified functions. We found that deletion and overexpression of PSPTO_4229 both reduce swimming motility, suggesting that its function is sensitive to expression level. We used the overexpression phenotype to screen for nonsense and missense mutants of PSPTO_4229 that no longer reduce swimming motility and found a pair of conserved arginine residues that are necessary for motility suppression. Together these results provide a global perspective on regulatory and structural genes controlling flagellar motility inPstDC3000.

Microbiology↗

Characterization of a modified printed optical particle spectrometer for high-frequency and high-precision laboratory and field measurements

Abstract. The printed optical particle spectrometer (POPS) is a lightweight, low-cost instrument for measurements of aerosol number concentrations and size distributions. This work reports on modifications of the Handix Scientific commercial version of the POPS to facilitate its use in multi-instrument aerosol sampling systems. The flow system is modified by replacing the internal pump with a needle valve and a vacuum pump. The instrument is integrated into closed-flow systems by routing the sheath flow from filtered inlet air. A high-precision multichannel analyzer (MCA) card is added to sample the analog pulse signal. The MCA card is polled at 10 Hz frequency using an external data acquisition system and improves upon the count-rate limitation associated with the POPS internal data acquisition system. The times required to change the concentration between 90 % and 10 % and vice versa for a step change in concentration were measured to be 0.17 and 0.41 s at a flow rate of 5 cm3 s−1. This yields a sampling frequency of ∼ 1–2 Hz, below which the amplitude of measured fluctuations is captured with > 70 % efficiency. The modified POPS was integrated into the dual tandem differential mobility analyzer system to explore the coalescence of dimer particles. Results show that the pulse-height response increases upon dimer coalescence. The magnitude of the increase is broadly consistent with the change in light-scattering amplitude predicted by the T-matrix method. It is anticipated that this modified version of the POPS will extend the utilization of the technique for a range of field and laboratory applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Diffuse Scattering to Observe X-Ray-Driven Nonthermal Melting

We present results from the SPring-8 Angstrom Compact free electron LAser (SACLA) XFEL facility, using a high intensity ($\sim\!10^{20}\,$W/cm$^2$) X-ray pump X-ray probe scheme to observe changes in the ionic structure of silicon induced by X-ray heating of the electrons. By avoiding Laue spots in the scattering signal from a single crystalline sample, we observe a rapid rise in diffuse scattering, which we attribute to a loss of lattice order and a transition to a liquid state within 100 fs of irradiation, a timescale which agrees well with first principles simulations, but is faster than that predicted by purely inertial behavior. This method is capable of observing liquid scattering without masking or filtering of signal from the ambient solid, allowing the liquid structure to be measured throughout and beyond the phase change.

Hartley, Nicholas J.↗

Development of a Deep Learning Model for Predicting the Drag Coefficients of Spherical and Non-Spherical Particles,

There is yet to be a well-established drag model for non-spherical particles required in a particle-laden flow that could cover a wide range of sphericities. This talk will explore the development of a general drag model for non-spherical particles by applying deep learning using available experimental data available in the literature. The integration of several raw experimental measurements from different sources and research directions allows the training of robust Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (ML) models. Neural networks are an ML approach inspired by the inner biological workings of the brain. This work aims to develop a Deep Neural Network (DNN) that predicts drag coefficient values with the ability to adapt appropriately to unseen data. Given the limited number of data points available and the variance found within the data collected from various sources, challenges may arise when looking to train the model. Our study tests and implements various model regularization techniques and assesses different loss and activation functions for the proposed DNN. The proposed model considers a broader range of features other than sphericity and Reynold number. These features include density ratio, solid volume fraction, lengthwise and crosswise sphericity, and more. Furthermore, we present the features that play a significant role in predicting different drag coefficients through feature importance. Within the investigated parameter ranges in this study, the following conclusions can be achieved and summarized below: • An improved drag coefficient model can be developed by considering more features such as, aspect ratio, lengthwise sphericity, crosswise sphericity, and density ratio. • DNN model can predict better results compared to traditional methods using MAE metric. • The proposed model addresses data challenges such as limited data and extreme data points through expanded feature-set and regularization. • Three major features that mostly affect the drag coefficient were identified from a feature importance analysis.

Presa-Reyes, Maria↗

Data Mining and Machine Learning for Power System Monitoring, Understanding, and Impact Evaluation

This chapter presents results from the Big Data analysis framework to improve power system situational awareness and system reliability. For this purpose, a dataset with real-world phasor measurement unit data and historical transmission system outage data has been created and used to carry out the analysis. Several statistical analysis and machine learning methods have been developed and implemented for event and anomaly detection and modeling. Detection and analysis results for actual examples of power system events are presented. Finally, data-driven characterization and risk assessment methods for weather-related extremes in power systems are developed and demonstrated on the Bonneville Power Administration system. These applications demonstrate the capability of Machine Learning (ML) methods to monitor system abnormalities, to predict system events, and to characterize the impact of extreme events on power grid

data mining, power grid, machine learning, anomaly↗

Methodology and analytical approach to investigate the impact of building temperature setpoint schedules

This work presents a method for generating a large set of stochastically varying temperature setpoint schedules for building performance simulations. It analyses tradeoffs resulting from specific changes to those schedules in terms of three quantities: total electricity consumption per day; maximum hourly electricity consumption per day and predicted percentage dissatisfied (occupant thermal comfort). The method for generating schedules requires a single base schedule as the starting point and, using a few clearly defined parameters, transforms it into a set of schedules that can be used for modelling an existing building stock or for performing parametric studies. Temperature setpoint schedules are generated and simulated for a small office building in a cool-dry climate in three different case studies pertaining to changing temperature setpoint schedules. Tradeoffs between the three output metrics are significant and vary based on the temperature setpoint schedules and the time of the year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Rapid Construction of Validated Chemistry Models for Advanced Biofuels (Co-Optima Final Report)

Computer methods were developed and demonstrated that make it possible to predict the combustion and pyrolysis chemistry of proposed biofuels, even before the biofuels are ever manufactured or experimentally tested. The methods are based on first-principles calculations of reaction rates and equilibria. A large number of complicated calculations are required, so we developed a computer workflow that automates many of the steps. With the chemical structure of the biofuel and the system conditions (temperature, pressure, compositions, etc.) as the input, the computer methods can construct a detailed kinetic model with refined parameters without intense human intervention. The automation of model construction makes it practical for a single engineer to make the predictions in a reasonable time period. The accuracy of the computer predictions was tested by measuring the time-profiles of various reaction intermediates (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, water, formaldehyde, methane, and ethylene) formed as the biofuels pyrolyze or ignite using sophisticated laser shock tube methods. Several biofuels, including methyl propyl ether, cyclopentanone, butyl acetate isomers, etc., were carefully studied to demonstrate the validity of the proposed computational and experimental methodology. This research project opens up the possibility for assessing some proposed biofuels on the computer without expensive experimental campaigns. The new computer methods are open source and well-documented, allowing a knowledgeable modeler to easily access the developed methods and implement them in their work routine. Moreover, they are also convenient and powerful, promising for developing the fuel chemistry models needed for use in engine simulators, facilitating co-optimization of new engine designs with new fuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Lattice QED in an external magnetic field: Evidence for dynamical chiral symmetry breaking

We simulate quantum electrodynamics (QED) in a strong constant homogeneous external magnetic field on a Euclidean space-time lattice using the rational hybrid Monte Carlo method, developed for simulating lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD). Our primary goal is to measure the chiral condensate in the limit when the input electron mass m is zero. We observe a nonzero value, indicating that the external magnetic field catalyzes chiral symmetry breaking as predicted by approximate truncated Schwinger-Dyson methods. Such behavior is associated with dominance by the lowest Landau level which causes the effective dimensional reduction from 3 + 1 dimensions to 1 + 1 dimensions for charged particles (electrons and positrons) where the attractive forces of QED can produce chiral symmetry breaking with a dynamical electron mass and associated chiral condensate. Since our lattice simulations use bare (lattice) parameters, while the Schwinger-Dyson analyses work with renormalized quantities, direct numerical comparison will require renormalization of our lattice results. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Kogut, J. B. (ORCID:000000030151548X)↗

Model orthogonalization and Bayesian forecast mixing via principal component analysis

One can improve predictability in the unknown domain by combining forecasts of imperfect complex computational models using a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework. In many cases, however, the models used in the mixing process are similar. In addition to contaminating the model space, the existence of such similar, or even redundant, models during the multimodeling process can result in misinterpretation of results and deterioration of predictive performance. In this paper we describe a method based on the principal component analysis that eliminates model redundancy. We show that by adding model orthogonalization to the proposed Bayesian model combination framework, one can arrive at better prediction accuracy and reach excellent uncertainty quantification performance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Neural Network-Based Electric Vehicle Range Prediction for Smart Charging Optimization

Range prediction is a standard feature in most modern road vehicles, allowing drivers to make informed decisions about when to refuel. Most vehicles make range predictions through data- or model-driven means, monitoring the average fuel consumption rate or using a tuned vehicle model to predict fuel consumption. The uncertainty of future driving conditions makes the range prediction problem challenging, particularly for less pervasive battery electric vehicles (BEV). Most contemporary machine learning-based methods attempt to forecast the battery SOC discharge profile to predict vehicle range. In this work, we propose a novel approach using two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to predict the remaining range of BEVs and the minimum charge required to safely complete a trip. Each RNN has two outputs that can be used for statistical analysis to account for uncertainties; the first loss function leads to mean and variance estimation (MVE), while the second results in bounded interval estimation (BIE). These outputs of the proposed RNNs are then used to predict the probability of a vehicle completing a given trip without charging, or if charging is needed, the remaining range and minimum charging required to finish the trip with high probability. Training data was generated using a low-order physics model to estimate vehicle energy consumption from historical drive cycle data collected from medium-duty last-mile delivery vehicles. Here, the proposed method demonstrated high accuracy in the presence of day-to-day route variability, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 6% for both RNN models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗