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Analysis of Conservation Voltage Reduction under Inverter-Based VAR-Support [Slides]

Conservation voltage reduction (CVR) is a common technique used by utilities to strategically reduce demand during peak periods. As penetration levels of distributed generation (DG) continue to rise and advanced inverter capabilities become more common, it is unclear how the effectiveness of CVR will be impacted and how CVR interacts with advanced inverter functions. In this work, we investigated the mutual impacts of CVR and DG from photovoltaic (PV) systems (with and without autonomous Volt-VAR enabled). The analysis was conducted on an actual utility dataset, including a feeder model, measurement data from smart meters and intelligent reclosers, and metadata for more than 30 CVR events triggered by the utility over the year. The installed capacity of the modeled PV systems represented 66% of peak load, but reached instantaneous penetrations reached up to 2.5x the load consumption over the year. While the objectives of CVR and autonomous Volt-VAR are opposed to one another, this study found that their interactions were mostly inconsequential since the CVR events occurred when total PV output was low.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Technical Specification Surveillance Interval Extension Using Self-Diagnostics

As part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program, an ongoing research effort is being conducted on technical specifications surveillance interval extension of digital equipment in nuclear power plants. The research team is led by Idaho National Laboratory and includes Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Technology Resources, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This research focuses on developing methods for applying the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)–approved guidance to implement a licensee-controlled, risk-informed surveillance frequency change program in digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems that include self-diagnostics and online monitoring (OLM) capabilities. Although approved methods exist for extending technical specifications (TS) surveillance test intervals (STIs) for general equipment, including analog I&C equipment, gaps remain in technology and guidance on crediting newer digital equipment’s internal self-diagnostics and OLM characteristics. Previous research described a general methodology for crediting internal self-diagnostics for extending surveillance test intervals. The methodology used self-diagnostics to detect—and credited recovery from—failure. Self-diagnostics were also applied for performance monitoring during the extended surveillance interval. This report discusses the status of recent activities to evaluate the previously developed methodology using a pilot study. Although both a utility partner for a pilot study and a specific digital asset were identified in FY2020, delays in obtaining proprietary information resulted in a limited ability to fully evaluate the methodology, and further interactions were complicated by the COVID pandemic. Therefore, at that time, the use of public-domain information—along with current processes for surveillance interval extension through a surveillance frequency control program—identified the need to fully assess diagnostic coverage as part of the pilot study. Furthermore, self-diagnostics were also identified as a potential option to replace the drift analyses conducted as part of current STI extension procedures. In FY2022, the project was reconstituted with the industry partner, and information and data were made available by the industry partner to the research team for review. The shared information included failure event descriptions and data for a digital I&C system since its implementation, as well as recent STI extension interval reports developed by the utility partner on that digital I&C system. This report presents an evaluation of this information and data and describes an application of the proposed methodology cited above. The methodology seeks to take advantage of the self-diagnostics and OLM capabilities to reduce risk or reduce the level of qualitative monitoring assessment needed to perform a risk-informed STI extension using existing NRC approved guidance or both. Addressing these issues of STI extension by crediting self-diagnostics is likely to result in benefits for current and future nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, including lowering the barriers to adoption of digital I&C systems and increasing cost savings by deferring or eliminating unneeded preventive maintenance (tasks or checks or activities). Specifically, self-diagnostic and OLM capabilities of newer digital equipment being installed in non-safety and safety applications are designed to detect failures, provide early warning of potential failures, and notify plant operators to take appropriate action to reduce out of service (OOS) time thus protecting safety margins. Moreover, the equipment is expected to provide information that time-related operational degradation is identified early to ensure timely and planned corrective actions instead of a reactive and unplanned approach ahead of an extended-surveillance interval.

42 ENGINEERING↗

RAVIS: Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness of Variable Renewable Generation

The Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RAVIS) is an innovative, open-source tool for visualizing variable renewable resource forecasts and alerts for significant up- and down-ramps in renewable generation and the consequent system net load. The modular dashboard of RAVIS contains configurable panes for viewing probabilistic time-series forecasts, ramp event alerts on the look-ahead timeline, and spatially resolved resource sites, and forecasts. For comprehensive situational awareness, the tool can add additional data layers from simulation and independent system operator (ISO) market clearing data---including electric line utilization, nodal price, and available generation flexibility---in response to continuously updated renewable forecasts. This paper introduces the RAVIS technology suite employed to provide optimum visualization and flexible design characteristics. The paper also illustrates some use cases of the tool using site-specific solar power forecast data obtained from the IBM Watt-Sun forecasting platform for the California ISO and Midcontinent ISO footprints. The source code for RAVIS is public (https://github.com/ravis-nrel/ravis), and the intended users are forecasters, utility planners, ISO operators, and researchers.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

The Use of NASA near Real-time and Archived Satellite Data to Support Disaster Assessment

With support from a NASA's Applied Sciences Program, The Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has explored a variety of techniques for utilizing archived and near real‐time NASA satellite data to support disaster assessment activities. MODIS data from the NASA Land Atmosphere Near Real‐time Capability for EOS currently provides true color and other imagery for assessment and potential applications including, but not limited to, flooding, fires, and tornadoes. In May 2013, the SPoRT Center developed unique power outage composites using the VIIRS Day/Night Band to represent the first clear sky view of damage inflicted upon Moore and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma following the devastating EF‐5 tornado that occurred on May 20. Pre‐event imagery provided by the NASA funded Web‐Enabled Landsat Data project offer a basis of comparison for monitoring post-disaster recovery efforts. Techniques have also been developed to generate products from higher resolution imagery from the recently available International Space Station SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System instrument. Of paramount importance is to deliver these products to end users expeditiously and in formats compatible with Decision Support Systems (DSS). Delivery techniques include a Tile Map Service (TMS) and a Web Mapping Service (WMS). These mechanisms allow easy integration of satellite products into DSS's, including the National Weather Service's Damage Assessment Toolkit for use by personnel conducting damage surveys. This poster will present an overview of the developed techniques and products and compare the strengths and weaknesses of the TMS and WMS.

McGrath, Kevin M.↗

The Resource Prospector Neutron Spectrometer System: RP's Bloodhound

The primary goal of the Resource Prospector Neutron Spectrometer System (NSS) is to locate and characterize hydrogen-bearing volatile deposits, especially subsurface ice, that may exist at the lunar poles. A key objective is to detect water-equivalent hydrogen concentrations of 0.5 wt% or greater while on a moving rover. A second objective is to determine approximate burial depth of enhanced hydrogen-bearing materials up to 1 meter below otherwise dry regolith. The instrument will be carried aboard a landed mobility system at the lunar poles. The instrument operates by measuring the changes in the leakage flux of low energy neutrons out of the regolith. These neutrons are produced by galactic cosmic rays, which are so energetic that they shatter the nuclei in surface materials. The neutrons interact with other nuclei and lose energy, becoming thermalized in the process. Hydrogen is most efficient at thermalizing neutrons owing to protons' similar mass - statistically, neutrons lose half their energy per collision with protons. With hydrogen in the soil, leakage fluxes of neutrons in the 0.5 eV to 500 keV energy range are reduced. A concentration of only1-2 wt% water-equivalent hydrogen results in a decrease in epithermal leakage flux of a factor of two. The leakage flux of thermal neutrons, from 0 to 0.5 eV in energy, can either increase or decrease depending on the hydrogen abundance and stratigraphy. As with the highly successful Lunar Prospector Neutron Spectrometer, the RP NSS detects both thermal and epithermal neutrons by using two helium-3 gas proportional counters, one covered by cadmium and the other uncovered. The former detects only epithermal neutrons with energies above approximately 0.5 eV, the latter detects both thermal (less than 0.5 eV) and epithermal energies (greater than 0.5 eV). When a neutron enters the detector tube and interacts with a helium-3 nucleus, the resulting reaction produces an energetic proton and triton that ionize the gas. The resulting electrons are accelerated toward a high-voltage anode and cascade, amplifying the net charge, which is collected at the anode. The number of electrons produced is proportional to the energy that the triton and proton deposit in the gas. A charge sensitive pre-amplifier converts the total charge to a step voltage output. A shaper amplifier then shapes this step into a uni-polar waveform with peaking time appropriate for the detection depending on the event rate. The integrated shaped waveform, representing the deposited triton/proton energy, is then measured. A histogram, or pulse height analysis, is performed to record the main capture peak and wall effect pulses. A threshold for detection is also required to limit the low amplitude counting rate such as noise floor. The system electronics consists of 2 modules - the Sensor Module (SM) front-end and the Data Processing Module (DPM) back-end circuits. SM is designed as a light-weight and low power front-end housing the two helium-3 proportional counter detectors, preamp and HVPS. It is mounted external to the rover body to detect the thermalized neutron flux with a minimum of host background. The DPM is located inside the rover; it digitizes the SM signals, performs pulse height analysis and accumulates the count rate for each spectral channel. The DPM controls high voltage and thresholding, and sends the science data to the host craft via an RS422 serial asynchronous protocol. The payload host provides all thermal management and control for the SM and DPM.

hydrogen-bearing volatile deposits↗

RAVIS: Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness of Variable Renewable Generation: Preprint

The Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RAVIS) is an innovative, open-source tool for visualizing variable renewable resource forecasts and alerts for significant up- and down-ramps in renewable generation and the consequent system net load. The modular dashboard of RAVIS contains configurable panes for viewing probabilistic time-series forecasts, ramp event alerts on the look-ahead timeline, and spatially resolved resource sites, and forecasts. For comprehensive situational awareness, the tool can add additional data layers from simulation and independent system operator (ISO) market clearing data—including electric line utilization, nodal price, and available generation flexibility—in response to continuously updated renewable forecasts. This paper introduces the RAVIS technology suite employed to provide optimum visualization and flexible design characteristics. The paper also illustrates some use cases of the tool using site-specific solar power forecast data obtained from the IBM Watt-Sun forecasting platform for the California ISO and Midcontinent ISO footprints. The source code for RAVIS is public (https://github.com/ravis-nrel/ravis), and the intended users are forecasters, utility planners, ISO operators, and researchers.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Cybersecurity Challenges in Low-Inertia Power-Electronics-Dominated Grids

Here, the low inertia characteristics of the power electronics dominated grid (PEDG) introduces challenges while restoring voltage and frequency to their nominal values. These stability challenges create new cybersecurity vulnerabilities that are not thoroughly discussed in the literature. Cyber events such as false data injection (FDI), denial of service (DoS), man-in-the-middle attacks, stealthy attacks, and advanced persistent threats target PEDG to disrupt grid stability or gain financial benefits. The low inertia of PEDG (< 2s) compared to traditional grids (~10s) exacerbates these vulnerabilities. In response to stealthy attacks on state variables that supervisory layers cannot detect until significant harm occurs, the low inertia characteristics of PEDG offer substantial stealthy attack surfaces. To counteract such threats, PEDG must be equipped with ultra-fast real-time anomaly detection system and trajectory prediction mechanism to achieve effective cyberattack resiliency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Design, Fabrication, and Test Program for NREL's Wave-Powered Desalination System

Starting in 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), initiated the development of a prize competition as a foundational investment of Powering the Blue Economy, the prize encouraged the development of small, modular, cost-competitive wave-powered desalination systems. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was tasked with managing the prize, known as the Waves to Water Prize (W2W), and providing technical input based on prior desalination research performed at the lab. NREL partnered with the Coastal Studies Institute (CSI) and Jennette's Pier in North Carolina for their expertise in deploying research articles at the Jennette's Pier research facility. The prize consisted of five stages that included high-level concept proposals, numerical modelling, site-specific design, subsystem prototyping, and a final ocean demonstration. Due to the logistical risks of installing numerous prototypes in the ocean at the same time, NREL was tasked with designing and building a test article to de-risk the final event. The test article design needed to represent the technologies expected in the final stage of the prize. This meant that the design was expected to follow the same rules as the competitors, providing CSI with an opportunity to practice installations and develop a final logistics plan prior to the final event. After concluding the W2W event in April 2022, the NREL test article was redeployed in August 2022 to better understand the challenges of anchoring wave energy converters (WECs) in shallow water conditions with breaking waves.

desalination↗

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Design, Fabrication, and Test Program for NREL's Wave-Powered Desalination System: Preprint

Starting in 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), initiated the development of a prize competition as a foundational investment of Powering the Blue Economy, The prize encouraged the development of small, modular, cost-competitive wave-powered desalination systems. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was tasked with managing the prize, known as the Waves to Water Prize (W2W), and providing technical input based on prior desalination research performed at the lab. NREL partnered with the Coastal Studies Institute (CSI) and Jennette's Pier in North Carolina for their expertise in deploying research articles at the Jennette's Pier research facility. The prize consisted of five stages that included high-level concept proposals, numerical modelling, site- specific design, subsystem prototyping, and a final ocean demonstration. Due to the logistical risks of installing numerous prototypes in the ocean at the same time, NREL was tasked with designing and building a test article to de- risk the final event. The test article design needed to represent the technologies expected in the final stage of the prize. This meant that the design was expected to follow the same rules as the competitors, providing CSI with an opportunity to practice installations and develop a final logistics plan prior to the final event. After concluding the W2W event in April 2022, the NREL test article was redeployed in August 2022 to better understand the challenges of anchoring wave energy converters (WECs) in shallow water conditions with breaking waves. For the Spanish version of this report, see NREL/CP-5700-88482 (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24osti/88482.pdf).

deployment↗

A digital twin platform for building performance monitoring and optimization: Performance simulation and case studies

Advancements in sensor technology, data analytics, affordable compute, and communication infrastructure have paved the way for Digital Twin technology in optimizing building operations and controls. This study presents the development of an open and interoperable web-based Digital Twin platform for integrating diverse data streams and facilitating effective user interactions. The platform utilizes modern technologies for the web framework and time-series data management, ensuring scalability and responsiveness. The backend supports seamless integration of diverse data sources and emulators, incorporating data from building sensors and meters, external weather Application Programming Interfaces, and advanced EnergyPlus simulation models of the building and its energy systems including the Distributed Energy Resources that are formulated in Functional Mockup Units. A simulation case study was conducted with FlexLab, a test facility on Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory campus. The case study includes normal operations, Distributed Energy Resource integration, and power outage scenarios, to illustrate the Digital Twin’s ability to provide critical insights into energy performance and thermal resilience. The results demonstrated the platform’s potential as a decision-support tool for optimizing building energy performance and enhancing resilience against extreme weather events. Future work will focus on deploying the Digital Twin platform to a real building for field validation, extending its capabilities to cover more scenarios such as bidirectional Electric Vehicle interactions, and enhancing user engagement.

EnergyPlus↗

Highly Available Nuclear Power for Mission-Critical Applications

Some energy consumers require power on an anytime, all-year-round basis with a high level of certainty, including defense installations, isolated communities, and some industrial processes. For these customers, interruptions in electricity or heat can mean substantial financial loss or even loss of life. In the absence of grid-scale energy storage, a high level of power availability can be accomplished only through the robustness and redundancy of power generators. The NuScale small modular reactor design is well suited to provide highly available power because of several features related to both the nuclear steam supply system and the overall plant design. In analogy to Redundant Array of Independent Disks (RAID) systems used to provide highly reliable data storage, a NuScale plant can assure sustained power generation by virtue of its Redundant Array of Integral Reactors (RAIR).This paper describes the NuScale RAIR plant features and summarizes the results of a rigorous analysis of RAIR availability as a function of power or, conversely, the RAIR plant output power as a function of power availability. The analysis utilized the Matrix Laboratory code (MATLAB) and included probability distributions for the frequency and duration of module outages due to planned and unplanned events. Further, the study evaluated the impact of implementing turbine bypass rather than module shutdown and using one or more modules to supply house loads in the case of loss of off-site power (LOOP). Availability results are presented for a 12-module RAIR plant with and without turbine bypass enabled during a LOOP and for different possible connections to the off-site power distribution grid and dedicated service loads. Results indicate that a very high level of availability can be achieved at relatively high power output levels, regardless of turbine bypass and dedicated load connection, compared to the operating fleet.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Co-simulation Framework for Community-scale Building-grid Integration [SWR-21-75]

Distributed energy resources (DERs), including rooftop solar, energy storage, and flexible loads, are gaining popularity as costs decline and as building owners and utilities realize their benefits. DERs can improve distribution system efficiency, help prevent the need for expensive grid upgrades, and increase the resilience of local communities. However, they can also cause difficulties in grid operations and can require controls to achieve their benefits. To address this challenge, NREL researchers have developed a community-scale solution that assesses the impacts of DERs and their control strategies on a distribution system. The framework has been shown to reduce solar photovoltaic (PV) curtailment to 0%, mitigate the adverse impact of solar variability on the distribution voltage, and provide up to 5-day critical load support during emergency events. Utilizing 5 different modules representing the feeder, buildings, home energy management systems, an aggregator, and a utility controller, NREL expects this simulation technology to play a critical role in the continued integration of DERs. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), solar curtailments accounted for 94% of the total energy curtailed in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) in 2020. By enabling Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utility operators to bring solar curtailments to 0%, the electrical grid can become less dependent on fossil-fueled power generation sources. NREL's co-simulation framework contains five major components: Distribution Feeder Model: describes the distribution feeder topology using OpenDSS, including the locations of all DERs. Residential Building Model: simulates a large number of buildings at a high resolution using OCHRETM. The model is equipped to control equipment based on signals from an external module. The model includes major household appliances such as HVAC and a water heater, non-dispatchable load models, a distributed PV system, and a home battery system. Home Energy Management System: optimizes the controls for the devices in a home using foreseeTM. The control can adjust based on the user preferences including cost, comfort, and convenience. In hierarchical control scenarios, where the houses follow signals from an aggregator, the home energy management system provides a flexibility band with a range of power and follows the dispatch signals received from aggregator. Community-Level Aggregator: solves for optimal energy dispatch based on the flexibility bands received from each home and the grid service signal received from the utility controller. Utility-Level Controller: provides grid signals for voltage control using Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), such as solar systems, in the community.

Balamurugan, Sivasathya Pradha↗

Deep Learning Systems for Increased Safeguards Surveillance Review Productivity

Nuclear safeguards inspectors expend significant time and maintain intense focus in reviewing video surveillance for safeguards relevant events. To increase efficiency and reduce the time burden of safeguards inspectors performing surveillance data review, this paper presents a novel deep learning (DL) systems concept to integrate generalized DL models into the safeguards surveillance review workflow. The Agency is investigating several DL algorithms for object recognition, localization, tracking, and flagging relevant activities. The project team is working closely with nuclear safeguards inspectors to identify review use cases (based on specific safeguards objectives) and collect their associated requirements. We focused on CANDU and LWR Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) and their associated dry storage areas as these present a particularly heavy burden on the inspector surveillance review process due to the number of these facilities under safeguards worldwide. Initial DL algorithm results on safeguards data are promising. Using a convolutional neural network, the team attained a mean average precision (mAP) of 92.9% identifying and localizing spent fuel (SF) casks from a 475 surveillance image dataset. Further, the team had initial success in training a recurrent neural network to identify reactor area activities in video clips, successfully indicating when SF casks enter or exit a pool. We discuss how such DL algorithms would be integrated into the Next Generation Surveillance Review (NGSR) software application. Another issue impacting review productivity is the long time inspectors may have to wait when running these algorithms in NGSR. We present a concept to pre-process remotely collected surveillance data with DL models as the data arrives to IAEA headquarters so that results are already available when starting a new review in NGSR. The proposed DL system concept shows a pathway and workflow for increasing an inspector’s surveillance review productivity by quickly and accurately identifying declared and undeclared safeguards relevant objects and activities in large quantities of surveillance imagery data.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

IceCat-1: The IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks

We present a catalog of likely astrophysical neutrino track-like events from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. IceCube began reporting likely astrophysical neutrinos in 2016, and this system was updated in 2019. The catalog presented here includes events that were reported in real time since 2019, as well as events identified in archival data samples starting from 2011. We report 275 neutrino events from two selection channels as the first entries in the catalog, the IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks, which will see ongoing extensions with additional alerts. The Gold and Bronze alert channels respectively provide neutrino candidates with a 50% and 30% probability of being astrophysical, on average assuming an astrophysical neutrino power-law energy spectral index of 2.19. For each neutrino alert, we provide the reconstructed energy, direction, false-alarm rate, probability of being astrophysical in origin, and likelihood contours describing the spatial uncertainty in the alert's reconstructed location. We also investigate a directional correlation of these neutrino events with gamma-ray and X-ray catalogs, including 4FGL, 3HWC, TeVCat, and Swift-BAT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effect of detector dead time on the performance of optical direct-detection communication links

Avalanche photodiodes (APDs) operating in the Geiger mode can provide a significantly improved single-photon detection sensitivity over conventional photodiodes. However, the quenching circuit required to remove the excess charge carriers after each photon event can introduce an undesirable dead time into the detection process. The effect of this detector dead time on the performance of a binary pulse-position-modulated (PPM) channel is studied by analyzing the error probability. It is shown that, when background noise is negligible, the performance of the detector with dead time is similar to that of a quantum-limited receiver. For systems with increasing background intensities, the error rate of the receiver starts to degrade rapidly with increasing dead time. The power penalty due to detector dead time is also evaluated and shown to depend critically on badkground intensity as well as dead time. Given the expected background strength in an optical channel, therefore, a constraint must be placed on the bandwidth of the receiver to limit the amount of power penalty due to detector dead time.

Chen, C.-C.↗

Comparison of Satellite Rainfall Estimates and Rain Gauge Measurements in Italy, and Impact on Landslide Modeling

Landslides can be triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall. Rain gauge measurements are commonly used to predict landslides even if satellite rainfall estimates are available. Recent research focuses on the comparison of satellite estimates and gauge measurements. The rain gauge data from the Italian network (collected in the system database Verifica Rischio Frana" (VRF)) are compared with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products. For the purpose, we couple point gauge and satellite rainfall estimates at individual grid cells, evaluating the correlation between gauge and satellite data in different morpho-climatological conditions. We then analyze the statistical distributions of both rainfall data types and the rainfall events derived from them. Results show that satellite data underestimates ground data, with the largest differences in mountainous areas. Power-law models, are more appropriate to correlate gauge and satellite data. The gauge and satellite-based products exhibit different statistical distributions and the rainfall events derived from them differ. In conclusion, satellite rainfall cannot be directly compared with ground data, requiring local investigation to account for specific morpho-climatological settings. Results suggest that satellite data can be used for forecasting landslides, only performing a local scaling between satellite and ground data.

landslide; satellite rainfall; TRMM; rain gauges; ↗

Climatology of Transient Luminous Events and Lightning Observed Above Europe and the Mediterranean Sea

In 1999, the first sprites were observed above European thunderstorms using sensitive cameras. Since then, Eurosprite campaigns have been conducted to observe sprites and other transient luminous events (TLEs), expanding into a network covering large parts of Europe and coastal areas. In 2009 through 2013, the number of optical observations of TLEs reached a peak of 2000 per year. Because of this unprecedented number of European observations, it was possible to construct a climatology of 8394 TLEs observed above 1018 thunderstorm systems and study for the first time their distribution and seasonal cycle above Europe and parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The number of TLEs per thunderstorm was found to follow a power law, with less than 10 TLEs for 801 thunderstorms and up to 195 TLEs above the most prolific one. The majority of TLEs were classified as sprites, 641 elves, 280 halos, 70 upward lightning, 2 blue jets and 1 gigantic jet. The climatology shows intense TLE activity during summer over continental areas and in late autumn over coastal areas and sea. The two seasons peak, respectively, in August and November, separated by March and April with almost no TLEs, and a relative minimum around September. The observed TLE activity, i.e. mostly sprites, is shown to be largely consistent with lightning activity, with a 1/1000 of observed TLE-to-lightning ratio in regions with most observations. The overall behaviour is consistent among individual years, making the observed seasonal cycle a robust general feature of TLE activity above Europe.

Arnone, Enrico↗