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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Ship‐Based Lidar Evaluation of Southern Ocean Low Clouds in the Storm‐Resolving General Circulation Model ICON and the ERA5 and MERRA‐2 Reanalyses

Global storm resolving models (GSRMs) represent the next generation of global climate models. One of them is a 5-km Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model (ICON). Its high resolution means that parameterizations of convection and clouds, including subgrid-scale clouds, are omitted, relying on explicit simulation but necessarily utilizing microphysics and turbulence parameterizations. Standard-resolution (10–100 km) models, which use convection and cloud parameterizations, have substantial cloud biases over the Southern Ocean (SO), adversely affecting radiation and sea surface temperature. The SO is dominated by low clouds, which cannot be observed accurately from space due to overlapping clouds, attenuation, and ground clutter. We evaluated SO clouds in ICON and the ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyzes using approximately 2400 days of lidar observations and 2300 radiosonde profiles from 31 voyages and a Macquarie Island station during 2010–2021, compared to the model and reanalyzes using a ground-based lidar simulator. We found that ICON and the reanalyzes underestimate the total cloud fraction by about 10% and 20%, respectively. ICON and ERA5 overestimate the cloud occurrence peak at about 500 m, associated with underestimated lower tropospheric stability and overestimated lifting condensation level. The reanalyzes strongly underestimate fog and very low-level clouds, and MERRA-2 underestimates cloud occurrence at almost all heights. Outgoing shortwave radiation is overestimated in MERRA-2, implying a “too few, too bright” cloud problem. SO cloud and fog biases are a substantial issue in the analyzed model and reanalyzes and result in shortwave and longwave radiation biases.

Kuma, Peter [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Univ. of Ca↗

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C Andrews↗

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C. Andrews↗

Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

Jeong, Hye-In↗

Preliminary Report on U-Th-Pb Isotope Systematics of the Olivine-Phyric Shergottite Tissint

Geochemical studies of shergottites suggest that their parental magmas reflect mixtures between at least two distinct geochemical source reservoirs, producing correlations between radiogenic isotope compositions, and trace element abundances.. These correlations have been interpreted as indicating the presence of a reduced, incompatible-element- depleted reservoir and an oxidized, incompatible-element-rich reservoir. The former is clearly a depleted mantle source, but there has been a long debate regarding the origin of the enriched reservoir. Two contrasting models have been proposed regarding the location and mixing process of the two geochemical source reservoirs: (1) assimilation of oxidized crust by mantle derived, reduced magmas, or (2) mixing of two distinct mantle reservoirs during melting. The former clearly requires the ancient martian crust to be the enriched source (crustal assimilation), whereas the latter requires a long-lived enriched mantle domain that probably originated from residual melts formed during solidification of a magma ocean (heterogeneous mantle model). This study conducts Pb isotope and U-Th-Pb concentration analyses of the olivine-phyric shergottite Tissint because U-Th-Pb isotope systematics have been intensively used as a powerful radiogenic tracer to characterize old crust/sediment components in mantle- derived, terrestrial oceanic island basalts. The U-Th-Pb analyses are applied to sequential acid leaching fractions obtained from Tissint whole-rock powder in order to search for Pb isotopic source components in Tissint magma. Here we report preliminary results of the U-Th-Pb analyses of acid leachates and a residue, and propose the possibility that Tissint would have experienced minor assimilation of old martian crust.

Moriwaki, R.↗

A Validated Finite Element Modeling Tool for Hydrodynamic Loading and Structural Analysis of Ocean Deployed Macroalgae Farms

The objective of this project was to develop and validate a fine-tuned, 3D computational modeling tool for high-fidelity simulations of macroalgae cultivation and harvest systems. To develop this tool, a full understanding of the geometric, material and hydrodynamic properties associated with farming kelp in exposed environments was necessary. Experiments and numerical modeling were done at increasing scales from 1) tank tests with a 1 m model, 2) to field tests with a 61 m culture line at a sheltered site, 3) to field tests with a 122 m culture line at an exposed site and to 4) a 5- line array at the exposed site with 186 m of culture length. The results of the experimental tank tests yielded a set of hydrodynamic drag-area coefficients for a 1 m aggregate based on densely grown kelp at 16 kg/m with a length up to 3 m as described in Fredriksson et al. This work provided the basis to model kelp as a 1 m aggregate based on in-situ geometric and material properties to include measurements of kelp blade length and width, number of blades, yield per m, material mass density and cantilever tests to obtain modulus of elasticity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calculation of surface temperature and surface fluxes in the GLAS GOM

Because the GLAS model's surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat exhibit strong 2 delta t oscillations at the individual grid points as well as in the zonal hemispheric averages and because a basic weakness of the GLAS model lower evaporation over oceans and higher evaporation over land in a typical monthly simulation, the GLAS model PBL parameterization was changed to calculate the mixed layer temperature gradient by solution of a quadratic equation for a stable PBL and by a curve fit relation for an unstable PBL. The new fluxes without any 2 delta t oscillation. Also, the geographical distributions of the surface fluxes are improved. The parameterization presented is incorporated into the new GLAS climate model. Some results which compare the evaporation over land and ocean between old and new calculations are appended.

Sud, Y. C.↗

Physical Oceanography in the Solar System and Beyond

A key controller of a planet’s rotational evolution, and hence habitability, is tidal dissipation, which on Earth occurs primarily in the oceans. As the discovery of habitable exoplanets is a primary objective of exoplanet research, it is imperative that we understand how “exo-oceans” behave. Despite this importance, little research has investigated the physical oceanography of worlds other than Earth. This oversight has occurred even though the Earth science community has studied tidal flows in Earth’s oceans for over a century and developed sophisticated models that exquisitely match satellite altimetry data, e.g. Here, we present a) models of tidal effects on exoplanets to motivate the problem, b) the application of a physical oceanography model to a putative ancient Venus ocean, and c) the application of that model to an ensemble of “alternative Earths” with a range of continental configurations and seafloor properties. We find that oceanic tidal dissipation can span 5 orders of magnitude, revealing that simulating exo-oceans with Earth science tools will provide fundamental insight into exoplanet evolution and habitability

Physical Oceanography↗

The Impact of the Evolving Satellite Data Record on Reanalysis Water and Energy Fluxes During the Past 30 Years

Retrospective analyses (reanalyses) use a fixed assimilation model to take diverse observations and synthesize consistent, time-dependent fields of state variables and fluxes (e.g. temperature, moisture, momentum, turbulent and radiative fluxes). Because they offer data sets of these quantities at regular space / time intervals, atmospheric reanalyses have become a mainstay of the climate community for diagnostic purposes and for driving offline ocean and land models. Of course, one weakness of these data sets is the susceptibility of the flux products to uncertainties because of shortcomings in parameterized model physics. Another issue, perhaps less appreciated, is the fact that the discreet changes in the evolving observational system, particularly from satellite sensors, may also introduce artifacts in the time series of quantities. In this paper we examine the ability of the NASA MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) and other recent reanalyses to determine variability in the climate system over the satellite record (~ the last 30 years). In particular we highlight the effect on reanalyses of discontinuities at the junctures of the onset of passive microwave imaging (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) in late 1987 as well as improved sounding and imaging with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, AMSU-A, in 1998. We examine these data sets from two perspectives. The first is the ability to capture modes of variability that have coherent spatial structure (e.g. ENSO events and near-decadal coupling to SST changes) and how these modes are contained within trends in near global averages of key quantities. Secondly, we consider diagnostics that measure the consistency in energetic scaling in the hydrologic cycle, particularly the fractional changes in column-integrated water vapor versus precipitation as they are coupled to radiative flux constraints. These results will be discussed in the context of implications for science objectives and priorities of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study, NEWS.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Altimetric Measurement from CYGNSS Data

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission was designed to study hurricane intensification by measuring wind speeds in tropical cyclones. However, the delay-Doppler maps (DDM) that are produced can be used to estimate the sea surface height (SSH) at the specular reflection point on the ocean surface. Proofof-concept studies that DDMs are suitable to solve for SSH have been recently reported (Clarizia et al., 2016; Mashburn et al., 2018), based on data acquired by the demonstration satellite experiment Tech Demo Sat - 1 (TDS-1) carrying a GNSS-R receiver similar to the ones onboard CYGNSS. Although the precision of each 1sec averaged SSH is considerably lower than that of the existing satellite altimeters, by virtue of the dense coverage and frequent revisit time exhibited by the constellation of 8 microsats, the error may be smoothed down considerably by optimal interpolation (Li et al., 2016). Hence the CYGNSS dataset presents a potential opportunity to sample the tropical oceans, and investigate the sensitivity of the SSH measurements to mesoscale eddies. Our objective is to analyze the CYGNSS data and test a suite of retrieval algorithms, including that of Mashburn et al., 2018 to obtain SSH, to understand the error sources and possible corrections when available. Because of the limited antenna gain of the CYGNSS instrument, the power SNR for general wind conditions is expected to be too low to accurately track the reflection point contribution, resulting in altimetry errors of the order of several meters. Other significant error sources are the CYGNSS satellites orbit knowledge, the ionosphere, the troposphere, the mean sea surface and the tides; some of these errors can be reduced by using models. The corrected SSH data will be assimilated into the ROMS high-resolution ocean model to investigate their ability to reproduce mesoscale eddies in the tropical oceans.

Voronovich, Alexander↗

Stability Analysis of Interface Conditions for Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling

In this paper, we analyze the stability of different coupling strategies for multidomain PDEs that arise in general circulation models used in climate simulations. We focus on fully coupled ocean–atmosphere models that are needed to represent and understand the complicated interactions of these two systems, becoming increasingly important in climate change assessment in recent years. Numerical stability issues typically arise because of different time-stepping strategies applied to the coupled PDE system. In particular, the contributing factors include using large time steps, lack of accurate interface flux, and single-iteration coupling. We investigate the stability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere models for various interface conditions such as the Dirichlet–Neumann condition and the bulk interface condition, which is unique to climate modeling. By analyzing a simplified model, we demonstrate here how the parameterization of the bulk condition and other numerical and physical parameters affect the coupling stability and establish stability conditions for different coupling strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

El Nino and La Nina Events Simulated by the Cane and Zebiak's Model and Observed with Satellite or in situ Data

The Zebiak and Cane (1987) model is first run in its 'forced mode' where the oceanic part of the model is driven by FSU wind stress anomalies over 1980-1994 to simulate sea surface temperature anomalies and those are used in the atmospheric part of the model to generate wind anomalies. Simulated thermocline depths, sea surface temperature and wind stress anomalies are first validated with observations.

climate research sea temperature sea wind El Nino ↗

Handling Input and Output for COAMPS

Two suites of software have been developed to handle the input and output of the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS), which is a regional atmospheric model developed by the Navy for simulating and predicting weather. Typically, the initial and boundary conditions for COAMPS are provided by a flat-file representation of the Navy s global model. Additional algorithms are needed for running the COAMPS software using global models. One of the present suites satisfies this need for running COAMPS using the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The first step in running COAMPS downloading of GFS data from an Internet file-transfer-protocol (FTP) server computer of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is performed by one of the programs (SSC-00273) in this suite. The GFS data, which are in gridded binary (GRIB) format, are then changed to a COAMPS-compatible format by another program in the suite (SSC-00278). Once a forecast is complete, still another program in the suite (SSC-00274) sends the output data to a different server computer. The second suite of software (SSC- 00275) addresses the need to ingest up-to-date land-use-and-land-cover (LULC) data into COAMPS for use in specifying typical climatological values of such surface parameters as albedo, aerodynamic roughness, and ground wetness. This suite includes (1) a program to process LULC data derived from observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Terra and Aqua satellites, (2) programs to derive new climatological parameters for the 17-land-use-category MODIS data; and (3) a modified version of a FORTRAN subroutine to be used by COAMPS. The MODIS data files are processed to reformat them into a compressed American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) format used by COAMPS for efficient processing.

Fitzpatrick, Patrick↗

Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Balance Variability: Linking Weather to Climate Scales

Radiative and turbulent surface exchanges of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. These fluxes are integral components to tropical ocean-atmosphere variability; they can drive ocean mixed layer variations and modify the atmospheric boundary layer properties including moist static stability, thereby influencing larger-scale tropical dynamics. Non-parametric cluster-based classification of atmospheric and ocean surface properties has shown an ability to identify coherent weather regimes, each typically associated with similar properties and processes. Using satellite-based observational radiative and turbulent energy flux products, this study investigates the relationship between these weather states and surface energy processes within the context of tropical climate variability. Investigations of surface energy variations accompanying intraseasonal and interannual tropical variability often use composite-based analyses of the mean quantities of interest. Here, a similar compositing technique is employed, but the focus is on the distribution of the heat and moisture fluxes within their weather regimes. Are the observed changes in surface energy components dominated by changes in the frequency of the weather regimes or through changes in the associated fluxes within those regimes? It is this question that the presented work intends to address. The distribution of the surface heat and moisture fluxes is evaluated for both normal and non-normal states. By examining both phases of the climatic oscillations, the symmetry of energy and water cycle responses are considered.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Carbon Monitoring System Flux Estimation and Attribution: Impact of ACOS-GOSAT X(CO2) Sampling on the Inference of Terrestrial Biospheric Sources and Sinks

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite 'IBUKI' (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (X(CO2)) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is approx.1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT X(CO2) observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides approx.1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSAT's spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance.

biased sampling↗

Development, Validation, and Potential Enhancements to the Second-Generation Operational Aerosol Product at the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

A revised (phase 2) single-channel algorithm for aerosol optical thickness, tau(sup A)(sub SAT), retrieval over oceans from radiances in channel 1 (0.63 microns) of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) has been implemented at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service for the NOAA 14 satellite launched December 30, 1994. It is based on careful validation of its operational predecessor (phase 1 algorithm), implemented for NOAA 14 in 1989. Both algorithms scale the upward satellite radiances in cloud-free conditions to aerosol optical thickness using an updated radiative transfer model of the ocean and atmosphere. Application of the phase 2 algorithm to three matchup Sun-photometer and satellite data sets, one with NOAA 9 in 1988 and two with NOAA 11 in 1989 and 1991, respectively, show systematic error is less than 10%, with a random error of sigma(sub tau) approx. equal 0.04. First results of tau(sup A)(sub SAT) retrievals from NOAA 14 using the phase 2 algorithm, and from checking its internal consistency, are presented. The potential two-channel (phase 3) algorithm for the retrieval of an aerosol size parameter, such as the Junge size distribution exponent, by adding either channel 2 (0.83 microns) from the current AVHRR instrument, or a 1.6-microns channel to be available on the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission and the NOAA-KLM satellites by 1997 is under investigation. The possibility of using this additional information in the retrieval of a more accurate estimate of aerosol optical thickness is being explored.

Stowe, Larry L.↗