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DOE OSTI2024

Development and Validation of a Process Model and Open-Source Process Simulator for Microalgae-Based Tertiary Phosphorus Recovery

Microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment has the potential to meet stringent effluent phosphorus limits, with the added benefit of producing a marketable feedstock. However, the lack of validated mechanistic models and their implementation in process simulators have limited the adoption of this technology. In this study, an updated lumped pathway metabolic model (Phototrophic-Mixotrophic Process Model, PM 2 ), including both photoautotrophic and heterotrophic metabolisms of microalgae, was developed to predict effluent phosphorus concentration and biomass yield in response to dynamic influent and varying environmental conditions. The model was implemented in QSDsan – an open-source, Python-based design and simulation platform – for robust simulation under uncertainty. A global sensitivity analysis was performed to prioritize model parameters for calibration. The model was then calibrated and validated using batch experimental data and 45 days of continuous online monitoring data from a full-scale (568 m 3 ·d -1 ) microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment plant (EcoRecover process). In particular, along with dynamic influent composition, temperature and light intensity data with diel variation were provided as model inputs to reflect the microalgal behavior under day-night cycling. Overall, the QSDsan-based microalgae process simulator was able to predict effluent phosphorus within 0.02–0.04 mg-P·L -1 , while also capturing the general trends of state variables according to nutrient availability.

Lumped pathway metabolic model↗

NASA NTRS1989

A rapid prototyping/artificial intelligence approach to space station-era information management and access

Applications of rapid prototyping and Artificial Intelligence techniques to problems associated with Space Station-era information management systems are described. In particular, the work is centered on issues related to: (1) intelligent man-machine interfaces applied to scientific data user support, and (2) the requirement that intelligent information management systems (IIMS) be able to efficiently process metadata updates concerning types of data handled. The advanced IIMS represents functional capabilities driven almost entirely by the needs of potential users. Space Station-era scientific data projected to be generated is likely to be significantly greater than data currently processed and analyzed. Information about scientific data must be presented clearly, concisely, and with support features to allow users at all levels of expertise efficient and cost-effective data access. Additionally, mechanisms for allowing more efficient IIMS metadata update processes must be addressed. The work reported covers the following IIMS design aspects: IIMS data and metadata modeling, including the automatic updating of IIMS-contained metadata, IIMS user-system interface considerations, including significant problems associated with remote access, user profiles, and on-line tutorial capabilities, and development of an IIMS query and browse facility, including the capability to deal with spatial information. A working prototype has been developed and is being enhanced.

Carnahan, Richard S., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Molten Salt Reactor Modeling Capabilities in NEAMS Thermal Hydraulics Tools

The DOE neams program supports a full range of computational thermal fluids analysis capabilities and code developments for a broad range of advanced reactor concepts. The research and development approach under the thermal fluids technical area synergistically combines three length and time scales in a hierarchical multi-scale approach. To enable multi-scale thermal fluids capability using these codes, a key joint effort has been underway to develop an integrated system- and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability, through integration of SAM and Pronghorn codes, both based on the MOOSE framework. This report summarizes recent advances in developing an integrated system- and engineering-scale modeling capability for the msr concept, which has gained significant interest in recent years. A consistent framework was established by coupling Pronghorn and SAM through the Saline interface, with thermophysical properties provided by the Molten Salt Thermal Property Database (MSTDB-TP). Further improvements were made to the coupling schemes and domain-overlapping strategies, enhancing the stability and robustness of multi-code simulations. Verification and validation efforts demonstrate the accuracy of this integration across a range of benchmark problems, including one-dimensional heated pipe flows, three-dimensional natural convection loops with evolving isotopic compositions, and \gls{msre} demonstration cases. Within Pronghorn, new capabilities were introduced to model corrosion and noble-metal plating phenomena, supported by an extended thermal-hydraulics framework and refined turbulence treatments. To capture two-phase flow behavior, a multiphase Euler–Euler model was implemented in Pronghorn, including advanced closure relations, high-resolution advection techniques, and capillary force reconstruction. Preliminary verification cases confirm the fidelity of the approach, while planned validation efforts target canonical multiphase benchmarks and application to msr components such as the msre pump bowl. Finally, updates to SAM’s msr mass transfer modeling were extended to consider noble gas migration into porous structures like graphite. The point kinetics model was updated to include reactivity feedback contributions from any defined species, such as xenon. The gas transport model was expanded for applicability to gas mixtures, bubble efflux phenomena, and species transport between liquid and gas phases. A selection of multi-scale Sherwood number correlations from MOSCATO/NekRS and multi-phase correlations from literature have been added for improved accuracy in calculating mass transfer coefficients. A companion effort on developing system-level redox corrosion has also been incorporated into SAM. Collectively, these enhancements strengthen the predictive capability of SAM and Pronghorn for simulating MSR thermal-hydraulics, corrosion, multiphase behavior, and fission-product transport, providing a more complete toolset for design, safety analysis, and licensing support of next-generation \gls{msr}s.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1999

Ocean Turbulence: Two-Point Closure Model Momentum, Heat and Salt Vertical Diffusivities in the Presence of Shear - Paper 3

In papers 1 and 2 we have presented the results of the most updated 1-point closure model for the turbulent vertical diffusivities of momentum, heat and salt, K(sub m,h,s). In this paper, we derive the analytic expressions for K(sub m,h,s) using a new 2-point closure model that has recently been developed and successfully tested against some approx. 80 turbulence statistics for different flows. The new model has no free parameters. The expressions for K(sub m, h. s) are analytical functions of two stability parameters: the Turner number R(sub rho) (salinity gradient/temperature gradient) and the Richardson number R(sub i) (temperature gradient/shear). The turbulent kinetic energy K and its rate of dissipation may be taken local or non-local (K-epsilon model). Contrary to all previous models that to describe turbulent mixing below the mixed layer (ML) have adopted three adjustable "background diffusivities" for momentum. heat and salt, we propose a model that avoids such adjustable diffusivities. We assume that below the ML, K(sub m,h,s) have the same functional dependence on R(sub i) and R(sub rho) derived from the turbulence model. However, in order to compute R(sub i) below the ML, we use data of vertical shear due to wave-breaking measured by Gargett et al. (1981). The procedure frees the model from adjustable background diffusivities and indeed we use the same model throughout the entire vertical extent of the ocean. Using the new K(sub m,h, s), we run an O-GCM and present a variety of results that we compare with Levitus and the KPP model. Since the traditional 1-point (used in papers 1 and 2) and the new 2-point closure models used here represent different modeling philosophies and procedures, testing them in an O-GCM is indispensable. The basic motivation is to show that the new 2-point closure model gives results that are overall superior to the 1-point closure in spite of the fact that the latter rely on several adjustable parameters while the new 2-point closure has none. After the extensive comparisons presented in papers 1 and 2, we conclude that the new model presented here is overall superior for it not only is parameter free but also 2 because is part of a more general turbulence model that has been previously successfully tested on a wide variety of other types of turbulent flows.

Canuto, V. M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Abstract Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The SAGA Survey. V. Modeling Satellite Systems around Milky Way–Mass Galaxies with Updated UniverseMachine

Abstract Environment plays a critical role in shaping the assembly of low-mass galaxies. Here, we use the U niverse M achine (UM) galaxy–halo connection framework and Data Release 3 of the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) Survey to place dwarf galaxy star formation and quenching into a cosmological context. UM is a data-driven forward model that flexibly parameterizes galaxy star formation rates (SFRs) using only halo mass and assembly history. We add a new quenching model to UM, tailored for galaxies with m ⋆ ≲ 10 9 M ⊙ , and constrain the model down to m ⋆ ≳ 10 7 M ⊙ using new SAGA observations of 101 satellite systems around Milky Way (MW)–mass hosts and a sample of isolated field galaxies in a similar mass range from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The new best-fit model, “UM-SAGA,” reproduces the satellite stellar mass functions, average SFRs, and quenched fractions in SAGA satellites while keeping isolated dwarfs mostly star-forming. The enhanced quenching in satellites relative to isolated field galaxies leads the model to maximally rely on halo assembly to explain the observed environmental quenching. Extrapolating the model down to m ⋆ ∼ 10 6.5 M ⊙ yields a quenched fraction of ≳30% for isolated field galaxies and ≳80% for satellites of MW-mass hosts at this stellar mass. Spectroscopic surveys can soon test this specific prediction to reveal the relative importance of internal feedback, cessation of mass and gas accretion, satellite-specific gas processes, and reionization for the evolution of faint low-mass galaxies.

Wang, Yunchong (ORCID:000000018913626X)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updating Lunar Subsurface Geotechnical Properties Based Upon Nonlinear Winkler Modeling of Apollo and Lunokhod Measurements

Returning human and robotic explorers to the lunar surface has identified a need for a renewed understanding of lunar geotechnical properties related to landing on and exploring the lunar surface. We review fundamental lunar geotechnical properties such as bulk density, cohesion, friction angle and shear strength, and apply new data derived from Apollo and Lunokhod geotechnical measurements to update the understanding of lunar regolith behavior. The analysis derives a new, nonlinear relationship of lunar geotechnical properties as a function of depth.

Lunar Geotechnical engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the effects of precise mass measurements of Ru and Pd isotopes on machine learning mass modeling

Atomic masses are a foundational quantity in our understanding of nuclear structure, astrophysics, and fundamental symmetries. The longstanding goal of creating a predictive global model for the binding energy of a nucleus remains a significant challenge, however, and prompts the need for precise measurements of atomic masses to serve as anchor points for model developments. We present precise mass measurements of neutron-rich Ru and Pd isotopes performed at the Californium Rare Isotope Breeder Upgrade facility at Argonne National Laboratory using the Canadian Penning Trap mass spectrometer. The masses of 108 Ru, 110 Ru, and 116 Pd were measured to a relative mass precision $\delta$⁢$m/m$ ≈ 10 -8 via the phase-imaging ion-cyclotron-resonance technique, and represent an improvement of approximately an order of magnitude over previous measurements. Further, these mass data were used in conjunction with the physically interpretable machine learning (PIML) model, which uses a mixture density neural network to model mass excesses via a mixture of Gaussian distributions. The effects of our new mass data on a Bayesian-updating of a PIML model are presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2019

2018-2019 Mid-Term Credibility Plan Review

This presentation summarizes the Interagency Modeling and Analysis Group (IMAG) / Multiscale Modeling (MSM)'s Committee on Credible Practice in Modeling and Simulation in Healthcare's (CPMS) mid-term review of each MSM U01 project's progress toward fulfilling their Model Credibility plan. Generally, the model credibility reporting and update process utilized several pieces of information formatted to communicate to the uninformed reviewer/user an assessment of steps taken toward model credibility with respect to the intended use of each U01 model, as well as communicate where the more interested reviewer/user can go to find more information. The reviewers, consisting of the members of the CPMS Executive Committee, focused on the documentation and communication of each PI's credibility efforts and did not perform an assessment of the implemented credible practice given the evolving nature of the projects. In this inaugural activity, the CPMS members sought insight on how PIs may view the importance of communicating credibility, as well as how PIs interpret establishing evidence for credibility within the scope of CPMS Tens simple rules. To that end, reviewers provided feedback on documentation and communication adequacy, and, only in few rare cases, on the credible practice itself.

Myers, Jerry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Validating Connected, Automated, and Electric Vehicle Models and Simulation - Research Performance Progress Report

The objective of this project is to test connected and automated vehicles with both electrified and internal combustion engine powertrains to support updates and validation of modeling and simulation tools. This includes the development of the components and network architecture to execute and collect empirical data for multiple scenarios and traffic interactions. Specific program objectives include: • Translate Lab algorithms into vehicle and infrastructure controls • Conduct physical testing at realistic scale • Evaluate system performance • Improve models using empirical data • Improve control algorithms from lessons learned • Identify system and algorithm assumptions which need refinement It is important to note that the objective of this project was not to demonstrate the efficacy of the selected algorithms to improve energy efficiency but rather to validate and improve modeling and simulation tools using empirical data. While it is a desirable outcome to concurrently demonstrate improved energy efficiency through use of these algorithms, and in most cases that was the outcome, the success of this project was not predicated on the performance of the algorithm towards improving energy efficiency across all scenarios and test matrices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

DOE OSTI2021

NEAMS Workbench MOOSE Integration Update

The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Workbench is a graphical user interface (GUI) that provides a common analysis environment for the accelerated use of the NEAMS toolkit. To improve design and analysis of current and future nuclear energy systems, the NEAMS Workbench provides an integrated development environment for model creation, review, execution, output review, and visualization for integrated tools. In addition to a GUI, the NEAMS Workbench provides the Workbench Analysis Sequence Processor, an open-source tool set that facilitates input-content assistance for supported domain-specific input languages and user-friendly syntaxes. These supported syntaxes enable accelerated development and deployment of enhanced user inputs and workflows. The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) has been supported in the NEAMS Workbench since 2016 and receives continuous updates. Efforts to improve MOOSE-based tool integration in the NEAMS Workbench are ongoing. This document details the current and planned enhancements of the NEAMS Workbench and the MOOSE framework to improve integration and usability of MOOSE-based applications within the NEAMS Workbench.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Analysis of the DebriSat Fragments and Comparison to the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model

Existing DOD and NASA satellite breakup models are based on a key laboratory test, the 1992 Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test, which has supported many applications and matched on-orbit events involving older satellite designs reasonably well over the years. In 2014, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, in collaboration with the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida, conducted a hypervelocity impact test using a high-fidelity, mock-up satellite, DebriSat, in controlled and instrumented laboratory conditions to update and improve these models. DebriSat is representative of present-day, low Earth orbit satellites, having been constructed with modern spacecraft materials and techniques. The DebriSat fragment ensemble provided a variety of shapes, bulk densities, and dimensions. Fragments down to 2 mm in size are being characterized by their physical and derived properties. The data will inform updates to the current NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM), which was formulated using laboratory and ground-based measurements of on-orbit fragmentation events to describe an average breakup for spacecraft and upper-stage collisions and explosions. Although individual fragment collection and characterization is still ongoing, this paper will present the status of the DebriSat fragment data analysis including cumulative characteristic length and cumulative mass distributions, area-to-mass distributions, and characteristic length versus mass distributions. Additionally, comparisons to the NASA SSBM will be presented.

Murray, James↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Markov framework for generalized post-event systems recovery modeling: From single to multihazards

State-dependent models can be used to represent the system recovery process as a series of stochastic transitions from lower to higher functional states. However, the applications of these models have been limited in scope and there is a lack of a generalized recovery modeling framework. A generalized framework would permit a robust forecasting of systems and system-of-systems recovery under multiple hazards, and more broadly, would contribute to community disaster preparedness. This paper develops a generalized post hazard-event recovery modeling framework based on state-dependent Markov-type processes. We then apply the proposed framework to solve a spectrum of problems that range from hind-casting single-system recovery following a single hazard event to forecasting post-event trajectories under multiple hazards and modeling the recovery of a system-of-systems. First, Markov chains are used to hind-cast the observed recovery for a portfolio of buildings affected by the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake. Next, Markov processes are used to formulate a parametric post hazard-event recovery model, which can be updated using Bayesian statistics when relevant datasets become available. Semi-Markov processes are then used to develop a more general model of single hazard recovery, which accounts for the intensity of the loading and level of damage caused by the event. Semi-Markov processes with non-renewal features are then used to account for multihazard interactions in a post-event recovery model, and applied to a case study that involves a community in Charleston, South Carolina. Lastly, Markov-type processes are combined with Bayesian networks to model the recovery of residential, commercial, educational, and industrial buildings (system-of-systems) following a hazard event. Overall, these applications demonstrate the versatility of the Markov framework towards handling recovery problems with varying levels of complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Results from the Helicopter Drop Test of the DAVINCI Descent Sphere

This paper summarizes the October 2023 helicopter drop test of the descent sphere of the upcoming Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging mission to Venus. The drop test met its primary objectives of recording acceleration, attitude rates, and camera data during the 30-second descent at Utah Test and Training Range. The recorded inertial measurement unit and global position sensor receiver data has allowed a six degree-of-freedom reconstruction of the vehicle position, velocity, attitude, and attitude rates, as well as derived aerodynamic coefficients. Initial comparisons show good agreement between the reconstruction and the pre-flight models of the descent sphere being used by the Venus mission. The reconstructed aerodynamic coefficients from the drop test can inform updates to the aerodynamic model to be used for the actual Venus mission.

Soumyo Dutta↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Results from the Helicopter Drop Test of the DAVINCI Descent Sphere

Soumyo Dutta↗