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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Solar and Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC

The CCMC has three principal functions, 1) To test and validate model in use in the research community that are destined for a future Space Weather forecasting role, 2) To make them available for wider use in the research community, and 3) To assist in transitioning these models to Rapid Prototyping Centers. Beginning in 2000 with a small model inventory, the CCMC now hosts more than 40 models or model combinations, covering the solar atmosphere, heliosphere, magnetosphere and ionosphere. In this talk I will describe the solar and heliospheric modeling component, its history, its current status and our future plans.

Source record↗

Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

Chen, Neil↗

Importance of Radiative Transfer Models in Atmospheric Remote Sensing

Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a significant role in the development of satellite instruments for remote sensing applications. These models simulate electromagnetic radiation's propagation through the atmosphere, providing valuable insights into atmosphere-radiation interactions. RTMs facilitate the optimization of satellite instrument designs, ensuring their ability to measure targeted atmospheric and surface properties accurately. Moreover, they aid in simulating instrument’s measurements under various atmospheric conditions, enabling calibration and validation processes to enhance data quality and reliability. RTMs are extensively used in the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), to generate synthetic observations. By incorporating RTMs into OSSE, we can assess the potential impact of future satellite missions, sensor configurations, and data assimilation techniques. This approach allows for the optimization of satellite instruments and constellations and the evaluation of their influence on weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and other Earth science applications. Another crucial application area of RT models is data assimilation, where they play a fundamental role in combining satellite observations with numerical models to improve atmospheric and environmental predictions. RTMs provide the link between observed radiances and atmospheric parameters, enhancing the accuracy of numerical models and generating more reliable forecasts for weather events, air quality assessments, and climate projections. Moreover, adapting RT models to capture the intricate radiation interactions within the Planetary Boundary Layer will significantly contribute to improving weather forecasting and climate change projections. Current community radiative transfer (RT) models are primarily developed and optimized for operational data assimilation of satellite observations. These models excel at assimilating satellite data into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecast accuracy. However, their focus on data assimilation limits their suitability for other important applications, such as satellite instrument development, OSSE, and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) studies. Moreover, for PBL studies, RT models need to be adapted to capture the intricate radiation interactions within this crucial atmospheric layer. Developing RT models that can represent the PBL's unique characteristics, such as surface interactions, will contribute significantly to understanding and predicting weather phenomena, air quality, and climate dynamics. This abstract provides a comprehensive overview of the current status of RT models and highlights their limitations concerning satellite instrument development, OSSE, and PBL studies. Addressing these shortcomings requires concerted efforts to enhance RT models' capabilities and expand their applications beyond data assimilation. By investing in research and development to improve these

Isaac Moradi↗

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

The International Space Station National Lab (ISSNL) was established through Congressional authority in 2005 and has been managed by a nonprofit called the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) since 2011 to support research, development, education, and commercial activities in low-Earth orbit (LEO). NASA leadership is considering next steps for microgravity and orbital activities in LEO in preparation for the retirement of the International Space Station (ISS) and transition to Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) in the 2030 timeframe. Specifically, our study team within the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy addressed the question: What are potential models for an ISS National Lab facilitating government-funded or subsidized activities on a commercial LEO platform after the transition of the ISS to one or more private platforms? To inform the trade space of potential models, we conducted over 40 discussions with stakeholders internal and external to NASA and reviewed over 35 documents related to LEO legislation, commercialization, models, and activities. Following the extensive literature review and discussions with diverse stakeholders, we defined and evaluated six models, in addition to the current ISSNL model. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios (dynamic, steady, and limited growth of the commercial LEO market and activities) and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria (ability to meet NASA’s needs, adaptability, opportunity for collaboration, market sustainability, and equity and accessibility). The six models in the future trade space were: • Government Research Broker: Customizable research efforts on transport vehicles and CLDs • Innovation Campus: Modern terrestrial campus with workforce focus • Anchor Tenant: Long-term, substantial agreement for leasing space on a single CLD • Fee for Service: Free market approach with NASA-sponsored grants and service/data buys • Matchmaker: Neutral third-party connecting users to platforms • Institute Network: Network of separate but related efforts to enable commercial scaling The Government Research Broker model performed best across the scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibited positive aspects, the two models performed most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. The six models presented in this study are representative of the potential trade space and are illustrative examples. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align to their priorities more closely by using combinations of the unique model features provided in our analysis. The optimal model is likely a combination of features from multiple models. Building upon this work to best position NASA and the diverse stakeholders of LEO activities for success post-ISS, further work will explore the near-term impact of preparing for the transition of the ISS to CLDs by identifying opportunities for modifying the current ISSNL-CASIS partnership. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the many reviewers and discussants, internal and external to NASA, that contributed to the work.

Erica Rodgers↗

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of LEO activities to one or more Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) by 2030. This transition necessitates new models for connecting NASA and other government-funded users of the LEO environment to platforms and opportunities. This paper describes for consideration six models for facilitating government-funded activities in the post-ISS LEO ecosystem. These six models are illustrative and represent a wide trade space of potential options, each relying on unique mechanisms for facilitating activities on one or more commercial LEO platforms or vehicles. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios varying in number and diversity of LEO activities and commercial offerings, and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria. We present the highlights of the analysis, including ways to modify and strengthen each model. The Government Research Broker model performs best across all future scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibit positive aspects, these models perform most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. While each model has strengths and weaknesses, no single model in its current form performs well across all criteria in all three future scenarios. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align closer to their priorities using combinations of unique model mechanisms. A model that meets leadership priorities is likely a combination of features from multiple models.

Erica Rodgers↗

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of LEO activities to one or more Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) by 2030. This transition necessitates new models for connecting NASA and other government-funded users of the LEO environment to platforms and opportunities. This paper describes for consideration six models for facilitating government-funded activities in the post-ISS LEO ecosystem. These six models are illustrative and represent a wide trade space of potential options, each relying on unique mechanisms for facilitating activities on one or more commercial LEO platforms or vehicles. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios varying in number and diversity of LEO activities and commercial offerings, and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria. We present the highlights of the analysis, including ways to modify and strengthen each model. The Government Research Broker model performs best across all future scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibit positive aspects, these models perform most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. While each model has strengths and weaknesses, no single model in its current form performs well across all criteria in all three future scenarios. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align closer to their priorities using combinations of unique model mechanisms. A model that meets leadership priorities is likely a combination of features from multiple models.

Erica Rodgers↗

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of LEO activities to one or more Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) by 2030. This transition necessitates new models for connecting NASA and other government-funded users of the LEO environment to platforms and opportunities. This paper describes for consideration six models for facilitating government-funded activities in the post-ISS LEO ecosystem. These six models are illustrative and represent a wide trade space of potential options, each relying on unique mechanisms for facilitating activities on one or more commercial LEO platforms or vehicles. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios varying in number and diversity of LEO activities and commercial offerings, and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria. We present the highlights of the analysis, including ways to modify and strengthen each model. The Government Research Broker model performs best across all future scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibit positive aspects, these models perform most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. While each model has strengths and weaknesses, no single model in its current form performs well across all criteria in all three future scenarios. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align closer to their priorities using combinations of unique model mechanisms. A model that meets leadership priorities is likely a combination of features from multiple models.

Erica Rodgers↗

An Open-Source Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Models: Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods to Predict Residential Buildings Characteristics: Preprint

Bottom-up urban energy models are crucial for understanding current energy use patterns and informing design strategies. However, accurately characterizing these models to represent different communities remains a challenge due to the extensive data needed for simulating existing energy use behavior. This data includes information related to human activities and building characteristics, all of which correlate with socioeconomic factors. To overcome this challenge, we developed an automated framework that utilizes both top-down and bottom-up data, to predict unknown building and occupant characteristics that are needed for more accurate and equitable modeling and analytics. Our framework, integrated into the URBANopt district energy modeling platform, uses statistical data models from ResStock. URBANopt models co-located buildings and neighborhoods. At this scale there are data gaps in building characteristic data, such as materials, insulation, occupancy, income, and energy usage of the buildings. To address this data gap, we use ResStock data, representative at the census tract scale, and develop machine-learning and deeplearning techniques to disaggregate it to individual buildings. By mapping unique occupant, building and economic properties to URBANopt energy models, we gain detailed insights into the variability of building energy use across different neighborhoods. This insight helps deploy technologies for co-located buildings and supports targeted upgrades for communities with unique economic and demographic characteristics, ensuring energy equity. Accurate characterization of energy models allows us to develop equitable strategies tailored to diverse neighborhoods, whether underserved or affluent. Our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable tool for building energy characterization.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

A standardized workflow for kinetic metabolic model curation and dissemination

Kinetic metabolic models provide invaluable insights into cellular metabolism, supporting applications in synthetic biology, metabolic engineering, and systems biology. However, reproducibility and utility of these models hinge on clear and rigorous documentation, standardized annotation, and accessible visualization. This paper presents a workflow for building, annotating, visualizing, and sharing kinetic metabolic models. Our method integrates community standards and open-source tools to ensure reproducibility, interoperability, and user accessibility. This procedure enables researchers to produce reusable and well-documented kinetic models, advancing their role as powerful tools in metabolic research.

Cook, Margaret [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (↗

Final Report on the NA-22 sponsored project from FY17-19: Next-Generation Correlated Fission Event Simulations

Through this multi-organization correlated fission physics research and development project, the CGMF and FREYA fission event generators have been implemented into the MCNP6.2 code and released to the public while a variety of dedicated differential experiments on correlated fission signatures have been performed to help validate the complex fission theory and physics implemented in these codes. In addition to enabling these new capabilities, a multitude of efforts in modeling and transport simulation has been directed toward a variety of applications including general nuclear nonproliferation, subcritical neutron multiplication, and nuclear criticality safety applications. While there is still much more to be done in the area of correlated fission physics, including the study of b-delayed fission observables, more robust validation and an extension into more application spaces, one of the key successes of this project can be summarized as the delivery of a newly demonstrated and consistently integrated simulation capability spanning several complex nuclear physics codes. From the special nuclear materials source term to the radiation transport to the time-coincident detector response modeling, new and existing users around the world, especially throughout the nuclear nonproliferation communities, can now begin to model these kinds of highly complex special nuclear material applications. Another successful aspect of this project included fruitful collaborations, mentoring opportunities and community outreach. One extended collaboration workshop was held in Santa Fe, NM in March 2017. Two other limited collaboration meetings took place including a brief gathering during the mid-project Schubert review at LANL and a single all-day special session on “Correlated Fission Physics, Transport and Applications” held during the 2019 Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management (INMM) in Palm Desert, CA. Finally, as part of this project, we have mentored 14 undergraduate students, PhD candidates, and postdoctoral researchers listed in Appendix A. The remainder of this report contains detailed information followed by highlights of the goals and accomplishments in Appendix B broken down by task within this project.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Structure and Parameter Uncertainty in Centennial Projections of Forest Community Structure and Carbon Cycling

Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi‐decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand‐replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub‐model–parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under‐predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant–soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED‐2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models.

canopy radiative transfer↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 50: From student to entry-level professional: Examining the role of language and written communications in the reacculturation of aerospace engineering students

When students graduate and enter the world of work, they must make the transition from an academic to a professional knowledge community. Kenneth Bruffee's model of the social construction of knowledge suggests that language and written communication play a critical role in the reacculturation process that enables successful movement from one knowledge community to another. We present the results of a national (mail) survey that examined the technical communications abilities, skills, and competencies of 1,673 aerospace engineering students, who represent an academic knowledge community. These results are examined within the context of the technical communications behaviors and practices reported by 2,355 aerospace engineers and scientists employed in government and industry, who represent a professional knowledge community that the students expect to join. Bruffee's claim of the importance of language and written communication in the successful transition from an academic to a professional knowledge community is supported by the responses from the two communities we surveyed. Implications are offered for facilitating the reacculturation process of students to entry-level engineering professionals.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

Enabling Assurance in the MBSE Environment

A number of specific benefits that fit within the hallmarks of effective development are realized with implementation of model-based approaches to systems and assurance. Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) enabled by standardized modeling languages (e.g., SysML®) is at the core. These benefits in the context of spaceflight system challenges can include: Improved management of complex development, Reduced risk in the development process, Improved cost management, Improved design decisions. With appropriate modeling techniques the assurance community can improve early oversight and insight into project development. NASA has shown the basic constructs of SysML in an MBSE environment offer several key advantages, within a Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA) initiative.

Evans, John W.↗

A model for diurnal patterns of carbon fixation in a Precambrian microbial mat based on a modern analog

Microbial mat communities are one of the first and most prevalent biological communities known from the Precambrian fossil record. These fossil mat communities are found as laminated sedimentary rock structures called stromatolites. Using a modern microbial mat as an analog for Precambrian stromatolites, a study of carbon fixation during a diurnal cycle under ambient conditions was undertaken. The rate of carbon fixation depends primarily on the availability of light (consistent with photosynthetic carbon fixation) and inorganic carbon, and not nitrogen or phosphorus. Atmospheric PCO2 is thought to have decreased from 10 bars at 4 Ga (10(9) years before present) to approximately 10(-4) bars today, implying a change in the availability of inorganic carbon for carbon fixation. Experimental manipulation of levels of inorganic carbon to levels that may have been available to Precambrian mat communities resulted in increased levels of carbon fixation during daylight hours. Combining these data with models of daylength during the Precambrian, models are derived for diurnal patterns of photosynthetic carbon fixation in a Precambrian microbial mat community. The models suggest that, even in the face of shorter daylengths during the Precambrian, total daily carbon fixation has been declining over geological time, with most of the decrease having occurred during the Precambrian.

Review↗

A Data-Driven Approach to Nation-Scale Building Energy Modeling

In 2019, 125 million U.S. residential and commercial buildings consumed $412 billion in energy bills. These buildings currently consume 40% of the nation's primary energy, 73% of electricity, 80% of energy during peak electric grid use, and responsible for 39% of greenhouse gas emissions [14]. Urban-scale building energy modeling has grown significantly in the past decade, allowing individual campuses or communities of buildings to be modeled, simulated, and cost-effective solutions for intelligent management to be identified and implemented. While traditionally limited to individual counties and usually less than 2,000 buildings, the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) soft-ware suite has been developed to process unconventional, nation-scale data sources to generate unique OpenStudio and EnergyPlus models of each building. Through the use of High Performance Computing (HPC) resources, every U.S. building has been simulated. This paper showcases the data layout, node partitioning, algorithmic approaches, and analytic results that were used to create, share, and analyze 124.4 million U.S. building models.

Berres, Andy↗

Analytical basis for planetary quarantine.

The attempt is made to investigate quarantine constraints, and alternatives for meeting them, in sufficient detail for identifying those courses of action which compromise neither the quarantine nor the space mission objectives. Mathematical models pertinent to this goal are formulated at three distinct levels. The first level of mission constraint models pertains to the quarantine goals considered necessary by the international scientific community. The principal emphasis of modeling at this level is to quantify international considerations and to produce well-defined mission constraints. Such constraints must be translated into explicit implementation requirements by the operational agency of the launching nation. This produces the second level of implementation system modeling. However, because of the multitude of factors entering into the implementation models, it is convenient to consider these factors at the third level of implementation parameter models. These models are intentionally limited to the inclusion of only those factors which can be quantified realistically, either now or in the near future.

Schalkowsky, S.↗

Hydrogen Storage System Modeling: Public Access, Maintenance, and Enhancements

The overall vision of this project is to provide ownership and support for maintaining existing material-based hydrogen storage systems models. This includes making models accessible to the research community through a public web page and updating and enhancing storage systems models to support material developers in assessing their materials relative to DOE vehicle-level targets. Key elements for FY24: Continue to update and enhance existing models for broader application and user-friendliness. Develop tools to evaluate the performance of hydrogen storage materials developed under HyMARC activities or other fundamental hydrogen storage materials discovery research. Expand the application of current hydrogen storage models beyond light-duty vehicles to include medium-, heavy-duty, and mining vehicles and stationary application(s). Develop models for alternatives, such as LOHCs, to material-based systems (liquefied & gaseous H2) and compare for various mobile and stationary use cases.

ENERGY STORAGE,HYDROGEN↗