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NASA NTRS2017

ALMA Mapping of Rapid Gas and Dust Variations in Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON): New Insights into the Origin of Cometary HNC

Observations of the sungrazing comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) were carried out using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array at a heliocentric distance of 0.58-0.54 AU (Astronomical Units) (pre-perihelion) on 2013 November 16-17. Temporally resolved measurements of the coma distributions of HNC, CH3OH, H2CO, and dust were obtained over the course of about an hour on each day. During the period UT 10:10-11:00 on November 16, the comet displayed a remarkable drop in activity, manifested as a greater than 42 percent decline in the molecular line and continuum fluxes. The H2CO observations are consistent with an abrupt, approximately 50 percent reduction in the cometary gas production rate soon after the start of our observations. On November 17, the total observed fluxes remained relatively constant during a similar period, but strong variations in the morphology of the HNC distribution were detected as a function of time, indicative of a clumpy, intermittent outflow for this species. Our observations suggest that at least part of the detected HNC originated from degradation of nitrogen-rich organic refractory material, released intermittently from confined regions of the nucleus. By contrast, the distributions of CH3OH and H2CO during the November 17 observations were relatively uniform, consistent with isotropic outflow and stable activity levels for these species. These results highlight a large degree of variability in the production of gas and dust from comet ISON during its pre-perihelion outburst, consistent with repeated disruption of the nucleus interspersed with periods of relative quiescence.

techniques: interferometric↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Waypoint Planning Tool: Real Time Flight Planning for Airborne Science

NASA Earth science research utilizes both spaceborne and airborne real time observations in the planning and operations of its field campaigns. The coordination of air and space components is critical to achieve the goals and objectives and ensure the success of an experiment. Spaceborne imagery provides regular and continual coverage of the Earth and it is a significant component in all NASA field experiments. Real time visible and infrared geostationary images from GOES satellites and multi-spectral data from the many elements of the NASA suite of instruments aboard the TRMM, Terra, Aqua, Aura, and other NASA satellites have become norm. Similarly, the NASA Airborne Science Program draws upon a rich pool of instrumented aircraft. The NASA McDonnell Douglas DC-8, Lockheed P3 Orion, DeHavilland Twin Otter, King Air B200, Gulfstream-III are all staples of a NASA's well-stocked, versatile hangar. A key component in many field campaigns is coordinating the aircraft with satellite overpasses, other airplanes and the constantly evolving, dynamic weather conditions. Given the variables involved, developing a good flight plan that meets the objectives of the field experiment can be a challenging and time consuming task. Planning a research aircraft mission within the context of meeting the science objectives is complex task because it is much more than flying from point A to B. Flight plans typically consist of flying a series of transects or involve dynamic path changes when "chasing" a hurricane or forest fire. These aircraft flight plans are typically designed by the mission scientists then verified and implemented by the navigator or pilot. Flight planning can be an arduous task requiring frequent sanity checks by the flight crew. This requires real time situational awareness of the weather conditions that affect the aircraft track. Scientists at the University of Alabama-Huntsville and the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center developed the Waypoint Planning Tool, an interactive software tool, that enables scientists to develop their own flight plans (also known as waypoints) with point-and-click mouse capabilities on a digital map draped with real time satellite imagery. The Waypoint Planning Tool has further advanced to include satellite orbit predictions and seamlessly interfaces with the Real Time Mission Monitor which tracks the aircraft s position when the planes are flying. This presentation will describe the capabilities and features of the Waypoint Planning Tool highlighting the real time aspect, interactive nature and the resultant benefits to the airborne science community.

He, Yubin↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Maintaining the Continuity of the Global Climate Data Record of Lightning from Space

Lightning is a natural hazard, an indicator of changes in convective storm behavior across multiple spatial and temporal scales, and a major influence on climate-affecting chemicals such as ozone and methane. Lightning also has substantial impacts on the near-space environment. As such, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has designated lightning as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV); that is, a measurement that is really important for understanding Earth’s climate. Spaceborne lightning observations are the gold standard for measuring global lightning, as the detection efficiency is more spatially uniform compared to ground-based lightning measurements. In addition, spaceborne is the only practical method for measuring total lightning (i.e., both intracloud and cloud-to-ground) at the global scale, as ground-based networks have limited ability to detect intracloud lightning at long distances (e.g., over oceans, far from land-based sensors). Since 1995, with only a two-year gap (2015-2017), lightning has been observed globally using a combination of Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) instruments. However, the year 2023 is the planned end for the International Space Station (ISS) LIS mission, and there is no designated low-Earth orbit (LEO) successor yet identified. Since 2017, geostationary (GEO) observations of lightning have become increasingly available. These include the U.S. Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GLMs), China’s Lightning Mapping Imager (LMI), and Europe’s Lightning Imager (LI). While GEO provides continuous, quasi-hemispheric coverage of lightning and thunderstorms, there are current gaps preventing global coverage, particularly in portions of Asia and the western Pacific, as well as high-latitude regions. Moreover, integration of the GEO constellation into a Climate Data Record (CDR) of lightning is a major challenge only recently begun to be addressed by the WMO. Furthermore, recent work has demonstrated some deficiencies in the global record of lightning from space. For example, small lightning flashes are very common in severe weather, but are difficult to observe using the present set of spaceborne lightning imagers. Moreover, some types of lightning are best observed using frequencies other than the commonly used near-infrared (777-nm), including ultraviolet and the radio spectrum. Finally, it is not possible to assess the vertical distribution of lightning globally, even though this measurement is highly relevant to thunderstorm behavior as well as lightning’s effects on greenhouse gases and the near-space environment. This presentation will provide a current assessment of lightning measurements from space, will identify significant current and future gaps in these observations, and will evaluate potential solutions for improving the overall CDR of global lightning.

Timothy Lang↗
NASA NTRS2005

Impacts of the Variability of Ice Types on the Decline of the Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Cover

The observed rapid decline in the Arctic perennial ice cover is one of the most remarkable signal of change in the Arctic region. Updated data now show an even higher rate of decline of 9.8% per decade than the previous report of 8.9% per decade mainly because of abnormally low values in the last 4 years. To gain insights into this decline, the variability of the second year ice, which is the relatively thin component of the perennial ice cover, and other ice types is studied. The perennial ice cover in the 1990s was observed to be highly variable which might have led to higher production of second year ice and may in part explain the observed ice thinning during the period and triggered further decline. The passive microwave signature of second year ice is also studied and results show that while the signature is different from that of the older multiyear ice, it is surprisingly more similar to that of first year ice. This in part explains why previous estimates of the area of multiyear ice during the winter period are considerably lower than the area of the perennial ice cover during the preceding summer. Four distinct clusters representing radiometrically different types have been identified using multi-channel cluster analysis of passive microwave data. Data from two of these clusters, postulated to come from second year and older multiyear ice regions are also shown to have average thicknesses of 2.4 and 4.1 m, respectively, indicating that the passive microwave data may contain some ice thickness information that can be utilized for mass balance studies. The yearly anomaly maps indicate high gains of first year ice cover in the Arctic during the last decade which means higher production of second year ice and fraction of this type in the declining perennial ice cover. While not the only cause, the rapid decline in the perennial ice cover is in part caused by the increasing fractional component of the thinner second year ice cover that is very vulnerable to total melt due to warming in the Arctic, especially in spring.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Developing CORBA-Based Distributed Scientific Applications from Legacy Fortran Programs

Recent progress in distributed object technology has enabled software applications to be developed and deployed easily such that objects or components can work together across the boundaries of the network, different operating systems, and different languages. A distributed object is not necessarily a complete application but rather a reusable, self-contained piece of software that co-operates with other objects in a plug-and-play fashion via a well-defined interface. The Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA), a middleware standard defined by the Object Management Group (OMG), uses the Interface Definition Language (IDL) to specify such an interface for transparent communication between distributed objects. Since IDL can be mapped to any programming language, such as C++, Java, Smalltalk, etc., existing applications can be integrated into a new application and hence the tasks of code re-writing and software maintenance can be reduced. Many scientific applications in aerodynamics and solid mechanics are written in Fortran. Refitting these legacy Fortran codes with CORBA objects can increase the codes reusability. For example, scientists could link their scientific applications to vintage Fortran programs such as Partial Differential Equation(PDE) solvers in a plug-and-play fashion. Unfortunately, CORBA IDL to Fortran mapping has not been proposed and there seems to be no direct method of generating CORBA objects from Fortran without having to resort to manually writing C/C++ wrappers. In this paper, we present an efficient methodology to integrate Fortran legacy programs into a distributed object framework. Issues and strategies regarding the conversion and decomposition of Fortran codes into CORBA objects are discussed. The following diagram shows the conversion and decomposition mechanism we proposed. Our goal is to keep the Fortran codes unmodified. The conversion- aided tool takes the Fortran application program as input and helps programmers generate C/C++ header file and IDL file for wrapping the Fortran code. Programmers need to determine by themselves how to decompose the legacy application into several reusable components based on the cohesion and coupling factors among the functions and subroutines. However, programming effort still can be greatly reduced because function headings and types have been converted to C++ and IDL styles. Most Fortran applications use the COMMON block to facilitate the transfer of large amount of variables among several functions. The COMMON block plays the similar role of global variables used in C. In the CORBA-compliant programming environment, global variables can not be used to pass values between objects. One approach to dealing with this problem is to put the COMMON variables into the parameter list. We do not adopt this approach because it requires modification of the Fortran source code which violates our design consideration. Our approach is to extract the COMMON blocks and convert them into a structure-typed attribute in C++. Through attributes, each component can initialize the variables and return the computation result back to the client. We have tested successfully the proposed conversion methodology based on the f2c converter. Since f2c only translates Fortran to C, we still needed to edit the converted code to meet the C++ and IDL syntax. For example, C++/IDL requires a tag in the structure type, while C does not. In this paper, we identify the necessary changes to the f2c converter in order to directly generate the C++ header and the IDL file. Our future work is to add GUI interface to ease the decomposition task by simply dragging and dropping icons.

Sang, Janche↗
NASA NTRS2016

New Methods for Retrieval of Chlorophyll Red Fluorescence from Hyperspectral Satellite Instruments: Simulations and Application to GOME-2 and SCIAMACHY

Global satellite measurements of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from chlorophyll over land and ocean have proven useful for a number of different applications related to physiology, phenology, and productivity of plants and phytoplankton. Terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence is emitted throughout the red and far-red spectrum, producing two broad peaks near 683 and 736nm. From ocean surfaces, phytoplankton fluorescence emissions are entirely from the red region (683nm peak). Studies using satellite-derived SIF over land have focused almost exclusively on measurements in the far red (wavelengths greater than 712nm), since those are the most easily obtained with existing instrumentation. Here, we examine new ways to use existing hyperspectral satellite data sets to retrieve red SIF (wavelengths less than 712nm) over both land and ocean. Red SIF is thought to provide complementary information to that from the far red for terrestrial vegetation. The satellite instruments that we use were designed to make atmospheric trace-gas measurements and are therefore not optimal for observing SIF; they have coarse spatial resolution and only moderate spectral resolution (0.5nm). Nevertheless, these instruments, the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2) and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY), offer a unique opportunity to compare red and far-red terrestrial SIF at regional spatial scales. Terrestrial SIF has been estimated with ground-, aircraft-, or satellite-based instruments by measuring the filling-in of atmospheric andor solar absorption spectral features by SIF. Our approach makes use of the oxygen (O2) gamma band that is not affected by SIF. The SIF-free O2 gamma band helps to estimate absorption within the spectrally variable O2 B band, which is filled in by red SIF. SIF also fills in the spectrally stable solar Fraunhofer lines (SFLs) at wavelengths both inside and just outside the O2 B band, which further helps to estimate red SIF emission. Our approach is then an extension of previous approaches applied to satellite data that utilized only the filling-in of SFLs by red SIF. We conducted retrievals of red SIF using an extensive database of simulated radiances covering a wide range of conditions. Our new algorithm produces good agreement between the simulated truth and retrievals and shows the potential of the O2 bands for noise reduction in red SIF retrievals as compared with approaches that rely solely on SFL filling. Biases seen with existing satellite data, most likely due to instrumental artifacts that vary in time, space, and with instrument, must be addressed in order to obtain reasonable results. Our 8-year record of red SIF observations over land with the GOME-2 allows for the first time reliable global mapping of monthly anomalies. These anomalies are shown to have similar spatiotemporal structure as those in the far red, particularly for drought-prone regions. There is a somewhat larger percentage response in the red as compared with the far red for these areas that are drought sensitive. We also demonstrate that good-quality ocean fluorescence line height retrievals can be achieved with GOME-2, SCIAMACHY, and similar instruments by utilizing the full complement of radiance measurements that span the red SIF emission feature.

spatiotemporal structure↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2020

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗
NASA NTRS2005

Electric field measurements of DC and long wavelength structures associated with sporadic-E layers and QP radar echoes

Electric field and plasma density data gathered on a sounding rocket launched from Uchinoura Space Center, Japan, reveal a complex electrodynamics associated with sporadic-E layers and simultaneous observations of quasiperiodic radar echoes. The electrodynamics are characterized by spatial and temporal variations that differed considerably between the rocket's up-leg and down-leg traversals of the lower ionosphere. Within the main sporadic-E layer (95- 110 km) on the up-leg, the electric fields were variable, with amplitudes of 2 4 mV1m that changed considerably within altitude intervals of 1-3 km. The identification of polarization electric fields coinciding with plasma density enhancements and/or depletions is not readily apparent. Within this region on the down-leg, however, the direction of the electric field revealed a marked change that coincided precisely with the peak of a single, narrow sporadic-E plasma density layer near 102.5 km. This shear was presumably associated with the neutral wind shear responsible for the layer formation. The electric field data above the sporadic-E layer on the upleg, from 110 km to the rocket apogee of 152 km, revealed a continuous train of distinct, large scale, quasi-periodic structures with wavelengths of 10-15 km and wavevectors oriented between the NE-SW quadrants. The electric field structures had typical amplitudes of 3-5 mV/m with one excursion to 9mV/m, and in a very general sense, were associated with perturbations in the plasma density. The electric field waveforms showed evidence for steepening and/or convergence effects and presumably had mapped upwards along the magnetic field from the sporadic-E region below.

Pfaff, R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Picture this SELFI: Submillimeter Enceladus Life Fundamentals Instrument

The Submillimeter Enceladus Life Fundamentals Instrument (SELFI) is a passive remote sensing submillimeter heterodyne spectrometer being developed at NASA GSFC under NASA's Maturation of Instruments for Solar System Exploration (MatISSE) program. SELFI will advance submillimeter receiver technology by 1) investigating the chemical and isotopic compositions and corresponding densities of Enceladus' plume material, their vertical thermal structures, and the transport mechanisms within the plumes, and 2) characterizing the source regions from which the plumes emerge. The Enceladus plumes are important in the context of life and habitability of its subsurface ocean environment. SELFI remote sensing measurements will 1) measure the spatial and temporal variabilities in the plume chemical compositions, 2) provide insight in to Enceladus' subsurface ocean environment by monitoring H2O, HDO, d18O, and d17O, 3) constrain the oxidation state of the subsurface ocean using H2O2 and O3, and 4) utilize the SO2 and H2S spectral signatures to constrain the impact arising from both the sea-floor volcanoes and pre-biotic molecules. Moreover, the detection of the remaining molecular species (14 in total) is vital to improving the current state of knowledge of Enceladus' subsurface ocean habitability this also permits us to explore the chemical alteration processes arising from primordial volatiles that have been observed in comets. Lastly, SELFI's continuum observations enable the correlation between observed variations in plume activity with surface temperatures.SELFI is currently being developed under a technology maturation program that will advance the RF-to-digital electronics of a submillimeter-wave heterodyne spectrometer to simultaneously observe fourteen molecular species with resonances between 530 GHz and 600 GHz. SELFI will have fine radiometric resolution, high spectral resolution (resolving power R > 106), multiple continuum channels and a high dynamical range, necessary to map Enceladus across its 30 K to 250 K temperature range. Under the MatISSE program, SELFI will advance from TRL 4 to 6 four key technologies of the RF-to-digital subsystem, which are: 1) the RF low noise amplifier design; 2) the single-sideband (SSB) mixer and local oscillator; 3) the IF assembly down-converter that maps the fourteen species to 2 x 500 MHz bandwidth; and 4) the digital spectrometer electronics.

Racette, Paul↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗
NASA NTRS2018

Mapping Forest Disturbance Intensity in North and South Carolina Using Annual Landsat Observations and Field Inventory Data

Disturbance and regrowth are vital processes in determining the roles of forest ecosystem in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles. Using time series observations, the vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm was designed to map the location, timing, and spectral magnitudes of forest disturbance events. While these spectral disturbance magnitudes are indicative of physical changes in tree cover or biomass, their quantitative relationships have yet to be established. This study focuses on estimating disturbance intensity as measured by percent basal area removal using spectral indices from the VCT algorithm over North and South Carolina. Repeat measurements on Forest Service Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) ground plots, which provide changes in basal area between multiple dates at precise locations, are used for training and validation of the model. The overall R2 between predicted disturbance intensity and reference data is 0.66, and cross-validation prediction uncertainty is 14% in North Carolina. Possible causes of this uncertainty could be site heterogeneity and the temporal offset between ground measurements and satellite observations. Results show the area of stand clearing disturbances remains relatively stable around 1143 km2 yr−1 in North and South Carolina throughout the period of observations (1985–2015). The average amount of forest area affected by partial disturbance is much higher at 3287 km2 yr−1. The area of partial disturbances has strong inter-annual variability with a high value of 6000 km2 in 2007 and a low value of 1919 km2 in 2013.

Xin Tao↗
NASA NTRS2007

Persistent Nature of Secondary Diurnal Modes of Precipitation over Oceanic and Continental Regimes

This investigation seeks a better understanding of the assorted mechanisms controlling the global distribution of precipitation diurnal variability based on the use of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave radiometer and radar data. The horizontal distributions of precipitation's diurnal cycle are derived from eight years of TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) measurements involving three TRMM standard rain rate retrieval algorithms -- the resultant distributions analyzed at various spatiotemporal scales. The results reveal the prominent and expected late-evening to early-morning (LE-EM) precipitation maxima over oceans and the counterpart prominent and expected mid- to late-afternoon (MLA) maxima over continents. Moreover, and not generally recognized, the results reveal a widespread distribution of secondary maxima occurring over both oceans and continents -- maxima which generally mirror their counterpart regime's behavior. That is, many ocean regions exhibit clearcut secondary MLA precipitation maxima while many continental regions exhibit just as evident secondary LE-EM maxima. This investigation is the first comprehensive study of these globally prevalent secondary maxima and their widespread nature, a type of study only made possible when the analysis procedure is applied to a high-quality global-scale precipitation dataset. The characteristics of the secondary maxima are mapped and described on global grids using an innovative clock-face format, while a current study to be published at a later date provides physically-based explanations of the seasonal-regional distributions of the secondary maxima. In addition to an "explicit" maxima identification scheme, a "Fourier decomposition" maxima identification scheme is used to examine the amplitude and phase properties of the primary and secondary maxima -- as well as tertiary and quaternary maxima. Accordingly, the advantages, ambiguities, and pitfalls resulting from use of Fourier harmonic analysis are explained.

Yang, S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Epidemiologic and Environmental Risk Factors of Rift Valley Fever in Southern Africa from 2008 to 2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have been associated with periods of widespread and above normal rainfall over several months. Knowledge on the environmental factors influencing disease transmission dynamics has provided the basis for developing models to predict RVF outbreaks in Africa. From 2008 to 2011, South Africa experienced the worst wave of RVF outbreaks in almost 40 years. We investigated rainfall associated environmental factors in southern Africa preceding these outbreaks. Methods: RVF epizootic records obtained from the World Animal Health Information Database (WAHID), documenting livestock species affected, location, and time, were analyzed. Environmental variables including rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were collected and assessed in outbreak regions to understand the underlying drivers of the outbreaks. Results: The predominant domestic vertebrate species affected in 2008 and 2009 were cattle, when outbreaks were concentrated in the eastern provinces of South Africa. In 2010 and 2011, outbreaks occurred in the interior and southern provinces affecting over 16,000 sheep. The highest number of cases occurred between January and April but epidemics occurred in different regions every year, moving from the northeast of South Africa toward the southwest with each progressing year. The outbreaks showed a pattern of increased rainfall preceding epizootics ranging from 9 to 152 days; however, NDVI and rainfall were less correlated with the start of the outbreaks than has been observed in eastern Africa. Conclusions: Analyses of the multiyear RVF outbreaks of 2008 to 2011 in South Africa indicated that rainfall, NDVI, and other environmental and geographical factors, such as land use, drainage, and topography, play a role in disease emergence. Current and future investigations into these factors will be able to contribute to improving spatial accuracy of models to map risk areas, allowing adequate time for preparation and prevention before an outbreak occurs.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF)↗
NASA NTRS2001

Biogeochemical Response to Mesoscale Physical Forcing in the California Current System

In the first part of the project, we investigated the local response of the coastal ocean ecosystems (changes in chlorophyll, concentration and chlorophyll, fluorescence quantum yield) to physical forcing by developing and deploying Autonomous Drifting Ocean Stations (ADOS) within several mesoscale features along the U.S. west coast. Also, we compared the temporal and spatial variability registered by sensors mounted in the drifters to that registered by the sensors mounted in the satellites in order to assess the scales of variability that are not resolved by the ocean color satellite. The second part of the project used the existing WOCE SVP Surface Lagrangian drifters to track individual water parcels through time. The individual drifter tracks were used to generate multivariate time series by interpolating/extracting the biological and physical data fields retrieved by remote sensors (ocean color, SST, wind speed and direction, wind stress curl, and sea level topography). The individual time series of the physical data (AVHRR, TOPEX, NCEP) were analyzed against the ocean color (SeaWiFS) time-series to determine the time scale of biological response to the physical forcing. The results from this part of the research is being used to compare the decorrelation scales of chlorophyll from a Lagrangian and Eulerian framework. The results from both parts of this research augmented the necessary time series data needed to investigate the interactions between the ocean mesoscale features, wind, and the biogeochemical processes. Using the historical Lagrangian data sets, we have completed a comparison of the decorrelation scales in both the Eulerian and Lagrangian reference frame for the SeaWiFS data set. We are continuing to investigate how these results might be used in objective mapping efforts.

Niiler, Pearn P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides in 2010 Relative to Previous Years

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides worldwide. While research has evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local or regional scales using in situ data, few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This study uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from TRMM data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurrence of precipitation and landslides globally. Evaluation of the GLC indicates that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This study characterizes the variability of satellite precipitation data and reported landslide activity at the globally scale in order to improve landslide cataloging, forecasting and quantify potential triggering sources at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗
NASA NTRS2005

Using Remote Sensing Data to Evaluate Surface Soil Properties in Alabama Ultisols

Evaluation of surface soil properties via remote sensing could facilitate soil survey mapping, erosion prediction and allocation of agrochemicals for precision management. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between soil spectral signature and surface soil properties in conventionally managed row crop systems. High-resolution RS data were acquired over bare fields in the Coastal Plain, Appalachian Plateau, and Ridge and Valley provinces of Alabama using the Airborne Terrestrial Applications Sensor multispectral scanner. Soils ranged from sandy Kandiudults to fine textured Rhodudults. Surface soil samples (0-1 cm) were collected from 163 sampling points for soil organic carbon, particle size distribution, and citrate dithionite extractable iron content. Surface roughness, soil water content, and crusting were also measured during sampling. Two methods of analysis were evaluated: 1) multiple linear regression using common spectral band ratios, and 2) partial least squares regression. Our data show that thermal infrared spectra are highly, linearly related to soil organic carbon, sand and clay content. Soil organic carbon content was the most difficult to quantify in these highly weathered systems, where soil organic carbon was generally less than 1.2%. Estimates of sand and clay content were best using partial least squares regression at the Valley site, explaining 42-59% of the variability. In the Coastal Plain, sandy surfaces prone to crusting limited estimates of sand and clay content via partial least squares and regression with common band ratios. Estimates of iron oxide content were a function of mineralogy and best accomplished using specific band ratios, with regression explaining 36-65% of the variability at the Valley and Coastal Plain sites, respectively.

Sullivan, Dana G.↗