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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Booster cavity damper redesign for PIP-II

A new Higher Order Mode (HOM) damper was designed and is undergoing testing for the Booster accelerator cavity at Fermilab. In anticipation of the PIP-II upgrade, it was discovered that the higher intensity of PIP-II may cause beam instability due to an excited mode at 106 MHz. This unfortunately corresponds with the cavity’s 2nd order harmonic mode, which will sweep from 86-105.7 MHz. The new damper is a modification of an existing damper that was designed to reduce an existing static HOM at 83 MHz, with the new design intending to cover the 2nd order HOM as well. The existing damper uses an inductive coupling loop to extract RF energy from the cavity which then goes through a filter in order to reflect the fundamental frequency back into the cavity while passing HOMs to a dump load. The new damper intends to replace the filter portion of the system with a wider band variant while also changing the topology from a coaxial cable loop filter to a componentized PCB-based design. Primary design challenges include bandwidth coverage, impedance matching of the various modes, long term thermal and mechanical stability, radiation hardness, and high voltage handling. Initial designs achieved the desired damping but were found to quickly succumb to destructive arcing due to the voltages present. More finalized designs intend to address this problem through circuit design modifications as well as the use of hardier components.

Pieper, Dustin [Fermilab]↗

Impact of storage and extraction methods on peat soil microbiomes

Recovered microbial community structure is known to be influenced by sample storage conditions and nucleic acid extraction methods, and the impact varies by sample type. Peat soils store a large portion of soil carbon and their microbiomes mediate climate feedbacks. Here, we tested three storage conditions and five extraction protocols on peat soils from three physicochemically distinct habitats in Stordalen Mire, Sweden, revealing significant methodological impacts on microbial (here, meaning bacteria and archaea) community structure. Initial preservation method impacted alpha but not beta diversity, with in-field storage in LifeGuard buffer yielding roughly two-thirds the richness of in-field flash-freezing or transport from the field on ice (all samples were stored at −80 °C after return from the field). Nucleic acid extraction method impacted both alpha and beta diversity; one method (the PowerSoil Total RNA Isolation kit with DNA Elution Accessory kit) diverged from the others (PowerMax Soil DNA Isolation kit-High Humic Acid Protocol, and three variations of a modifiedPowerMax Soil DNA/RNA isolation kit), capturing more diverse microbial taxa, with divergent community structures. Although habitat and sample depth still consistently dominated community variation, method-based biases in microbiome recovery for these climatologically-relevant soils are significant, and underscore the importance of methodological consistency for accurate inter-study comparisons, long-term monitoring, and consistent ecological interpretations.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Oxygen Electrocatalysis on Mixed-Metal Oxides/Oxyhydroxides: From Fundamentals to Membrane Electrolyzer Technology

Catalyzing the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is important for key energy-storage technologies, particularly water electrolysis and photoelectrolysis for hydrogen fuel production. Under neutral-to-alkaline conditions, first-row transition-metal oxides/(oxy)hydroxides are the fastest-known OER catalysts and have been the subject of intense study for the past decade. Critical to their high performance is the intentional or accidental addition of Fe to Ni/Co oxides that convert to layered (oxy)hydroxide structures during the OER. Unraveling the role that Fe plays in the catalysis and the molecular identity of the true “active site” has proved challenging, however, due to the dynamics of the host structure and absorbed Fe sites as well as the diversity of local structures in these disordered active phases. In this Account, we highlight our work to understand the role of Fe in Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxide OER catalysts. We first discuss how we characterize the intrinsic activity of the first-row transition-metal (oxy)hydroxide catalysts as thin films by accounting for the contributions of the catalyst-layer thickness (mass loading) and electrical conductivity as well as the underlying substrate’s chemical interactions with the catalyst and the presence of Fe species in the electrolyte. We show how Fe-doped Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxides restructure during catalysis, absorb/desorb Fe, and in some cases degrade or regenerate their activity during electrochemical testing. We highlight the relevant techniques and procedures that allowed us to better understand the role of Fe in activating other first-row transition metals for OER. We find several modes of Fe incorporation in Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxides and show how those modes correlate with activity and durability. We also discuss how this understanding informs the incorporation of earth-abundant transition-metal OER catalysts in anion-exchange-membrane water electrolyzers (AEMWE) that provide a locally basic anode environment but run on pure water and have advantages over the more-developed proton-exchange-membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWE) that use platinum-group-metal (PGM) catalysts. We outline the key issues of introducing Fe-doped Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxide catalysts at the anode of the AEMWE, such as the oxidative processes triggered by Fe species traveling through the polymer membrane, pH-gradient effects on the catalyst stability, and possibly limited catalyst utilization in the compressed stack configuration. We also suggest possible mitigation strategies for these issues. Lastly, we summarize remaining challenges including the long-term stability of Fe-doped Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxides under OER conditions and the lack of accurate models of the dynamic active surface that hinder our understanding of, and thus ability to design, these catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Booster Cavity Damper Redesign for PIP-II

A new Higher Order Mode (HOM) damper was designed and tested for the Booster accelerator cavity at Fermilab. In anticipation of the PIP-II upgrade, it was discovered that the higher beam intensity of PIP-II may cause beam instability due to an excited mode at 106 MHz. This unfortunately corresponds with the cavity s 2nd order harmonic mode, which will sweep from 86-105.7 MHz. The new damper is a modification of an existing damper that was designed to reduce an existing static HOM at 83 MHz, with the new design intending to cover the 2nd order HOM as well. The existing damper uses an inductive coupling loop to extract RF energy from the cavity which then goes through a filter in order to reflect the fundamental frequency back into the cavity while passing HOMs to a dump load. The new damper intends to replace the filter portion of the system with a wider band variant while also changing the topology from a coaxial cable loop filter to a componentized PCB-based design. Primary design challenges include bandwidth coverage, impedance matching of the various modes, long term thermal and mechanical stability, radiation hardness, and high voltage handling. Initial designs achieved the desired damping but were found to quickly succumb to destructive arcing due to the voltages present. More finalized designs intend to address this problem through circuit design modifications as well as the use of hardier components.

Pieper, Dustin [Fermilab]↗

Parked aeroelastic field rotor response for a 20% scaled demonstrator of a 13‐MW downwind turbine

Abstract Aeroelastic parked testing of a unique downwind two‐bladed subscale rotor was completed to characterize the response of an extreme‐scale 13‐MW turbine in high‐wind parked conditions. A 20% geometric scaling was used resulting in scaled 20‐m‐long blades, whose structural and stiffness properties were designed using aeroelastic scaling to replicate the nondimensional structural aeroelastic deflections and dynamics that would occur for a lightweight, downwind 13‐MW rotor. The subscale rotor was mounted and field tested on the two‐bladed Controls Advanced Research Turbine (CART2) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Flatiron Campus (NREL FC). The parked testing of these highly flexible blades included both pitch‐to‐run and pitch‐to‐feather configurations with the blades in the horizontal braked orientation. The collected experimental data includes the unsteady flapwise root bending moments and tip deflections as a function of inflow wind conditions. The bending moments are based on strain gauges located in the root section, whereas the tip deflections are captured by a video camera on the hub of the turbine pointed toward the tip of the blade. The experimental results are compared against computational predictions generated by FAST, a wind turbine simulation software, for the subscale and full‐scale models with consistent unsteady wind fields. FAST reasonably predicted the bending moments and deflections of the experimental data in terms of both the mean and standard deviations. These results demonstrate the efficacy of the first such aeroelastically scaled turbine test and demonstrate that a highly flexible lightweight downwind coned rotor can be designed to withstand extreme loads in parked conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Report series: finding of effect and mitigation documentation for the mercury solar photovoltaic array and battery energy storage system, area 23, nevada national security site, nye county, nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) proposes to install solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation arrays and an associated battery energy storage system (BESS) for the town of Mercury at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada (Figure 1). The purposes of the development of this facility are to support long-term efforts to modernize Mercury and to provide energy-resilient infrastructure and address climate adaptation needs. Because it is within the boundary of the Mercury Historic District (MHD), it is subject to the terms of the Programmatic Agreement Between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada (hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA). An identification and evaluation report prepared for this undertaking determined that a contributing element to the MHD, the Mercury airstrip (26NY15777), is within the APE (Haynes 2024). The Mercury airstrip was developed following the closure of Camp Desert Rock in 1957 and used until late 1963 or 1964 when the Camp Desert Rock Airport was renovated, and the Mercury Bypass road constructed. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) as the MHD (SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for its importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992 (Reed 2019). Originally recorded in 2016, 26NY15777 was determined individually not eligible for listing in the NRHP because it lacked sufficient integrity to convey its significance (Palmer 2016). It was subsequently determined in 2018 to be a contributing element of the MHD in an architectural survey of the district (Palmer 2018) and identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element. However, as per Stipulation IV.B.2, because the airstrip had already been formally evaluated and determined not to be individually eligible for the NRHP in consultation with the SHPO, this categorization was an error. NNSA/NFO reported this to the SHPO in Haynes 2024 and the SHPO concurred on June 11, 2024 (Reed). Accordingly, the airstrip is a Category II Property for the purposes of complying with the Mercury PA. The Mercury airstrip is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Overview of RFID Applications Utilizing Neural Networks

As Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) methods continue to evolve to higher levels of complexity, one form of machine learning is making its appearance. The use of Neural Networks (NN) in the RFID field is steadily increasing, and in the fields of localization and activity recognition, promising results are being shown from a variety of research. RFID applications fall primarily under two types of problems including regression and classification. We analyze RIFD localization techniques which fall under regression, and activity recognition which falls under classification. Many works don’t classify themselves as activity recognition methods, but because they fall under the classification category, we still consider them as activity recognition techniques. This research overviews the Neural Network models in the localization field based on whether they can perform independently of the environment in which they were tested. For activity recognition and accessory fields, the major methods involve tag-based and tag-free approaches. In conclusion, after the models are surveyed, a comparison study is given to examine what may be the cause for increased accuracy between different Neural Network models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Radioisotope Power System Cask Trailer Chiller Low Heat Load Study

This report documents the study of the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator Transport System (RTGTS) chillers capability to transport a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) with low heat loads in the cask. Tests of the RTGTS chillers included setting the glycol/water (coolant) temperature to a control set point of 40° and 60°F while applying heat loads ranging from 2500 to 0 W heat load. The tests performed showed that the chiller systems could handle the entire range of heat loads. However, a noise/vibration started to occur when the set point was 60°F with low heat loads. Three recommended changes to the RTGTS chillers are recommended with varying implementation windows. The first is an operational change that can be implemented immediately. The RTGTS chillers should have a set point of 40°F when transporting an RPS less than 1500 W. The second is a short-term change (within the next two years) augmenting RPS heat by utilizing one RTGTS onboard heater (2500 W) while transporting an RPS with less than 1500 W which will also require a change to the Instrument and Data Acquisition System (IDAS) to allow monitoring and possible control of power to the onboard heaters. However, if the heater does fail during transport, no emergency actions or immediate repairs will be required due to the chillers’ ability to handle low heat loads. Running a 2500 W heater when transporting low heat loads aids in prolonging the life of the chillers. The remaining recommended long-term change is to replace the current chillers with a new portable or permanently installed chiller system in the next five to ten years. This time frame takes advantage of the proven reliability and durability of the current chillers while the new chillers are phased in and proven to the RPS program.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SaltStone Wastewater Cement Study Using Isothermal Calorimetry, Standard Concrete Characterization Techniques, and CemGEMS - 25169

Cementitious reagents are used to solidify/stabilize aqueous radioactive, hazardous, and mixed salt solutions, and sludges to meet low-level radioactive waste (LLW) and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) requirements for disposal at Department of Energy (DOE). It is flexible enough to solidify radioactive wastewater saturated in complex species that include but are not limited to radioactive isotopes from the bombardment of neutrons in reactor operation, corrosion products from metallic components, and a variety of soluble organic compounds. [1,2]. Waste form testing typically includes processing or fresh properties, cured properties, compressive strength and hydraulic properties, porosity, density, saturated and unsaturated moisture transport, and leachability of contaminants in the waste form pore solution. Properties are collected over a relatively limited time, typically 28 to 365 days [3]. In addition, changes in the waste form as the result of time and changing conditions are important for concrete engineers to predict overall performance of the forms and potential release of contaminants in the disposal process via unintended filtration into the environment [4]. These predictions are determined/calculated characterizing young waste forms (relative to the standard age of concrete) and are based on transport through soluble ions in pore solutions. Characterization methods include X-ray, SEM, and isothermal calorimetry among other methods used to define the composition, amorphous vs. crystalline nature of the components, and the energetic formation mechanisms for multi-phase mineral systems. [5–7] Isothermal calorimetry is a well standardized technique for cements and concretes and can be used to predict the timing and nature of the hydration reactions.[8] The technique can measure long term energetic

Bustamante, Michael E. [Savannah River National La↗

Multiple spillovers from humans and onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer

Many animal species are susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and could act as reservoirs; however, transmission in free-living animals has not been documented. White-tailed deer, the predominant cervid in North America, are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and experimentally infected fawns can transmit the virus. To test the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 is circulating in deer, 283 retropharyngeal lymph node (RPLN) samples collected from 151 free-living and 132 captive deer in Iowa from April 2020 through January of 2021 were assayed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Ninety-four of the 283 (33.2%) deer samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA as assessed by RT-PCR. Notably, following the November 2020 peak of human cases in Iowa, and coinciding with the onset of winter and the peak deer hunting season, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 80 of 97 (82.5%) RPLN samples collected over a 7-wk period. Whole genome sequencing of all 94 positive RPLN samples identified 12 SARS-CoV-2 lineages, with B.1.2 (n = 51; 54.5%) and B.1.311 (n = 19; 20%) accounting for ~75% of all samples. The geographic distribution and nesting of clusters of deer and human lineages strongly suggest multiple human-to-deer transmission events followed by subsequent deer-to-deer spread. These discoveries have important implications for the long-term persistence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Our findings highlight an urgent need for a robust and proactive “One Health” approach to obtain enhanced understanding of the ecology, molecular evolution, and dissemination of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Creep strength boosted by a high-density of stable nanoprecipitates in high-chromium steels

There is a need worldwide to develop materials for advanced power plants with steam temperatures of 700°C and above that will achieve long-term creep-rupture strength and low CO 2 emissions. The creep resistance of actual 9-12Cr steels is not enough to fulfil the engineering requirements above 600°C. In this paper, the authors report their advances in the improvement of creep properties of this type of steels by the microstructural optimization through nano-precipitation using two methodologies. 1) Applying a high temperature austenitization cycle followed by an ausforming step (thermomechanical treatment, TMT) to G91 steel, to increase the martensite dislocation density and, thus, the number density of MX precipitates (M = V,Nb; X = C,N) but at the expense of deteriorating the ductility. 2) Compositional adjustments, guided by computational thermodynamics, combined with a conventional heat treatment (no TMT), to design novel steels with a good ductility while still possessing a high number density of MX precipitates, similar to the one obtained after the TMT in G91. The microstructures have been characterized by optical, scanning and transmission electron microscopy, EBSD and atom probe tomography. The creep behaviour at 700°C has been evaluated under a load of 200 N using small punch creep tests.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The effect of barrier films and exposure on the aging of vacuum insulation panels with fumed silica cores

Vacuum insulation panels have very low thermal conductivities compared to conventional insulation materials. The reduction of the core pressure significantly lowers gas phase conduction and overall thermal conductivity. As a consequence, increases in gas pressure can significantly increase thermal conductivity of the VIP. In addition, the thermal conductivity of the core is sensitive to moisture content. For vacuum insulation panels with fumed silica cores, work shows that the measured thermal conductivity increases by 0.5 x 10-3 W/mK per mass percent increase in water content [1]. This is significant since the thermal conductivity of vacuum insulation panels with fumed silica cores is in the range of 0.004 W/mK. This work investigates the long-term behavior of vacuum insulation panels comprised of fumed silica cores with polymer (ethylene vinyl alcohol) and metalized (aluminized) barrier films exposed to different exposure conditions: ambient conditions; exterior conditions in a mixed humid climate; and 24oC and 80 percent relative humidity. Results show that the increase in thermal conductivity is more pronounced for vacuum insulation panels made using polymer barrier films compared to the same panel protected by a metalized film. The increase is more pronounced when exposed to high relative humidity, 80 percent. After almost two years exposure, the decrease in thermal conductivity for vacuum insulation panels protected by a metalized barrier films are between 4 and 11 percent depending on exposure condition. The smallest decrease is for ambient conditions where the largest decrease is for exposure to 80 percent relative humidity. Similar behavior was observed for panels protected using polymer films, except the decrease in thermal conductivity was significantly higher, between approximately 20 and 60 percent, in the same order as for panels protected by metalized films. Measurements are ongoing with an attempt to develop a better relationship between these types of tests and vacuum insulation panel service life.

Aldykiewicz Jr, Antonio↗

Sex ratio of Western Bluebirds ( Sialia mexicana ) is mediated by phenology and clutch size

Mothers may produce more of one sex to maximize their fitness if there are differences in the cost of producing each sex or there are differences in their relative reproductive value. Breeding date and clutch size are known to influence offspring sex ratios in birds through sex differences in dispersal, social behaviours, differential mortality and available food resources. We tested whether breeding date, clutch size and drought conditions influenced offspring sex ratios in a sexually size-monomorphic species, the Western Bluebird Sialia mexicana, by interrogating a 21-year dataset. After controlling for differential mortality, we found that hatch dates late in the breeding season were associated with the production of more females, suggesting that the value of producing males declines as the breeding season progresses. When clutch size was taken into account, small clutches yielded significantly more females late in the breeding season than in the early and middle parts of the breeding season, which produced significantly more males. Here, large clutches early in the season tended to produce more females, although this was not significant. Drought severity was not correlated with sex ratio adjustment. We propose and discuss several explanations for these patterns, including male offspring, but not female offspring, acting as helpers, increased female nestling provisioning late in the breeding season, differences in food abundance and egg-laying order. Future work will help to uncover the mechanisms leading to these patterns. Identifying patterns and mechanisms of sex ratio skew from long-term datasets is important for informing predictions regarding life-history trade-offs in wildlife populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

HBU R and D Cask Transportation Options - 20436

The TN-32B HBU Demonstration Cask was successfully loaded in November 2017 with 32 high burnup (HBU) fuel assemblies at Dominion's North Anna Nuclear Plant and is collecting thermal data as intended. The first two phases of this very successful project sponsored by DOE and EPRI was designed to collect thermal data of HBU fuel to support extended storage. The next phase of the project requires the cask be licensed for transportation so the cask can be relocated to a site (to be determined by DOE) to facilitate long term monitoring and additional research on the fuel. This is a unique challenge given the constraints that exist for this particular bolted metal cask. The TN-32B cask is a 234,288 lb. (storage configuration) dry storage system that was selected for this project and it was modified to provide thermal data and the ability to collect gas samples after loading. Several major issues must be addressed to obtain the transport license including protecting the seven lid penetrations that were made to allow for the insertion of the thermocouples into the selected fuel assemblies after the cask was loaded. In order to protect the integrity of the research, the payload must remain as is. Therefore, the cask system must be placed into the transportation configuration without rewetting the fuel, replacing the lid and without removing the thermocouple instrumentation that is currently installed. A critical portion of the design and engineering that was performed in the first two phases of the project was to ensure that future transportation of the cask was integrated into the approach. Efforts were made to accommodate requirements such as containment boundary leakage testing, installation of impact limiter brackets and lid bolts suitable for transportation. Due to the science requirements of the project, the fuel selected was intended to yield the highest payload temperatures permitted to provide the greatest value for the researchers. This resulted in higher than usual external dose rates and surface temperatures that warranted performing as much preparatory work prior to cask loading to ensure ALARA and personnel safety to the greatest extent practical rather than working on a loaded cask. In addition to the work performed prior to cask load, there are remaining challenges such as protecting the modified lid, design and fabrication of impact limiters that accommodate the modified cask lid and preserving the thermocouple connections for continued monitoring. The project team is currently performing the necessary calculations, engineering, and design to support the licensing as required by the US NRC. Pre-application meetings have been held to inform the regulator of the planned technical approach to ensure compliance with the applicable regulations. The current plan is to obtain the transportation C of C by the end of 2021. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Machine Learning Based Resilience Testing of an Address Randomization Cyber Defense

Moving target defenses (MTDs) are widely used as an active defense strategy for thwarting cyberattacks on cyber-physical systems by increasing diversity of software and network paths. Recently, machine Learning (ML) and deep Learning (DL) models have been demonstrated to defeat some of the cyber defenses by learning attack detection patterns and defense strategies. It raises concerns about the susceptibility of MTD to ML and DL methods. Here, in this article, we analyze the effectiveness of ML and DL models when it comes to deciphering MTD methods and ultimately evade MTD-based protections in real-time systems. Specifically, we consider a MTD algorithm that periodically randomizes address assignments within the MIL-STD-1553 protocol—a military standard serial data bus. Two ML and DL-based tasks are performed on MIL-STD-1553 protocol to measure the effectiveness of the learning models in deciphering the MTD algorithm: 1) determining whether there is an address assignments change i.e., whether the given system employs a MTD protocol and if it does 2) predicting the future address assignments. The supervised learning models (random forest and k-nearest neighbors) effectively detected the address assignment changes and classified whether the given system is equipped with a specified MTD protocol. On the other hand, the unsupervised learning model (K-means) was significantly less effective. The DL model (long short-term memory) was able to predict the future addresses with varied effectiveness based on MTD algorithm's settings.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chronic Cardiotoxicity Assays Using Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell-Derived Cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs)

Cardiomyocytes (CMs) differentiated from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) are increasingly used in cardiac safety assessment, disease modeling and regenerative medicine. A vast majority of cardiotoxicity studies in the past have tested acute effects of compounds and drugs; however, these studies lack information on the morphological or physiological responses that may occur after prolonged exposure to a cardiotoxic compound. In this review, we focus on recent advances in chronic cardiotoxicity assays using hiPSC-CMs. We summarize recently published literature on hiPSC-CMs assays applied to chronic cardiotoxicity induced by anticancer agents, as well as non-cancer classes of drugs, including antibiotics, anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) and antidiabetic drugs. We then review publications on the implementation of hiPSC-CMs-based assays to investigate the effects of non-pharmaceutical cardiotoxicants, such as environmental chemicals or chronic alcohol consumption. We also highlight studies demonstrating the chronic effects of smoking and implementation of hiPSC-CMs to perform genomic screens and metabolomics-based biomarker assay development. The acceptance and wide implementation of hiPSC-CMs-based assays for chronic cardiotoxicity assessment will require multi-site standardization of assay protocols, chronic cardiac maturity marker reproducibility, time points optimization, minimal cellular variation (commercial vs. lab reprogrammed), stringent and matched controls and close clinical setting resemblance. A comprehensive investigation of long-term repeated exposure-induced effects on both the structure and function of cardiomyocytes can provide mechanistic insights and recapitulate drug and environmental cardiotoxicity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗