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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States

The purpose of the Total ELectricity Load (tell) model is to generate 21st century profiles of hourly electricity load (demand) across the Conterminous United States (CONUS). tell loads reflect the impact of climate and socioeconomic change at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for input to an electricity grid operations model. tell uses machine learning to develop profiles that are driven by projections of climate/meteorology and population. tell also harmonizes its results with United States (U.S.) state-level, annual projections from a national- to global-scale energy-economy model. This model accounts for a wide range of other factors affecting electricity demand, including technology change in the building sector, energy prices, and demand elasticities, which stems from model coupling with the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA). tell was developed as part of the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. IM3 explores the vulnerability and resilience of interacting energy, water, land, and urban systems in response to compound stressors, such as climate trends, extreme events, population, urbanization, energy system transitions, and technology change

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

ComEd Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook, Phase 1: Temperature, Heat Index, and Average Wind

This Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook report presents the research and findings of a joint venture between Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) and Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) to evaluate future climate risks to ComEd’s infrastructure and operations. ComEd recognizes that its position as the state of Illinois’ largest electric utility, serving roughly 70% of the state’s population, underscores the importance for communities across Illinois to consider climate risk as they plan for future conditions. Climate impacts, such as more severe heatwaves or more frequent flood events, can disrupt the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and create public health challenges. Taking a proactive approach to adapt to climate risks will help ensure that ComEd continues to serve its growing customer-base reliably and efficiently. This Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook serves as an important first step to inform ComEd’s grid planning efforts, but Argonne and ComEd recognize that additional research beyond this report will be necessary to characterize future climate conditions more comprehensively throughout northern Illinois, to assess their impacts to grid assets and system operations, and to index effective adaptation options at an asset-level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

What Is the Best Use of Biomass? A Harmonized LCA-TEA Framework Quantifying Economic and Environmental Metrics for Bioenergy Pathways

Bioresource utilization is expected to play a pivotal role in complementing existing energy pathways and enhancing energy resilience. This study develops a harmonized life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), and marginal abatement cost (MAC) of bioenergy pathways. We analyze 19 pathways, including liquid biofuels (via catalytic fast pyrolysis, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and gasification), bioelectricity, and biomass-to-hydrogen, with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The GHG impacts are assessed using the GREET 2022 model, while U.S. Billion-Ton 2016 biomass availability projections are used to estimate scale-up potential. Additionally, we evaluate the influence of a low-carbon electricity grid on pathway performance. Our results show that CCS implementation reduces carbon intensities (CI) to net-negative values for several pathways, with MAC ranging from $\$$32 to $\$$600 per metric ton (MT) CO2e avoided. Bioelectricity pathways with CCS achieve the lowest MAC ($\$$32–$\$$68/tCO2e), while liquid biofuels and hydrogen pathways remain critical for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and heavy industry. Pathways with net-positive electricity demand benefit from a low-carbon grid, whereas those co-producing electricity experience increased MAC under lower electricity grid CI scenarios. This open-source framework provides a robust tool for harmonized evaluation of bioenergy pathways, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to identify cost-effective strategies for biomass utilization and carbon abatement at scale. The findings underscore the importance of CCS, co-product credits, and feedstock availability in optimizing bioenergy deployment for a low-carbon economy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable and Secure Power Outage Data Reporting: A Hexagonal Geospatial Approach

Power outages disrupt critical infrastructure and cause billions of dollars in economic losses annually in the United States. Accurate and granular outage reporting is vital for effective restoration and mitigation. This paper examines the integration of the Hexagonal Hierarchical Geospatial Indexing System (H3) to enhance power outage reporting, leveraging its uniform grid structure, scalable resolutions, and support for privacy-preserving analysis. Using high-resolution LandScan Global population data and K-anonymization techniques, this work achieves a balance between data granularity and privacy. Results show that lower privacy thresholds (e.g., K-anonymity = 2) enable higher resolution, while stricter thresholds (e.g., >15 people per hex) reduce granularity, potentially affecting localized responses. State-and county-level resolution case studies demonstrate H3’s adaptability and the trade-offs between precision and privacy. The proposed H3-based framework offers a scalable and efficient solution for geospatial data integration within the energy sector, such as outage data, aiding utilities and regulators in improving resilience and response efforts, particularly in disaster-prone regions.

Ahmad, Nasir [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000150677368)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Arctic Community Engagement: Enhancing Energy Affordability, Resilience, Security

The changing Arctic geopolitical and natural environment presents significant new challenges and opportunities for innovation, economic development, and sustainable energy, as well as enhancing resilience and security in Alaska communities and the greater Arctic region. NREL's Arctic strategy focuses on addressing the impacts of climate change, developing a clean energy and weatherization workforce in the arctic, advancing energy innovation, developing climate appropriate and affordable housing, and ensuring energy security in an era of growing geopolitical threats.

Alaska↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean↗
DOE OSTI2023

Black start demonstrations of small hydropower plants with energy storage

The U.S. has at least 500 municipal, electric co-operative, and publicly owned utilities with hydropower plants. These are mostly grid-connected to support the national grid. However, due to small size (at most 10 MW) and low ramping capacity, many of these hydropower plants lack the capability to form local grids to provide backup power to critical loads (during grid outage) and rural areas. Energy storage, such as Li-Ion batteries or ultracapacitors, can be used to enable these capabilities. Because this technology is relatively new, proof-of-concept demonstrations are needed to de-risk the approach before it can be deployed at scale. Two field demonstrations have been performed to validate this approach, namely, a 375 kVA / 1.24 kWh ultracapacitor with Idaho Falls Power’s 3.6 MW Old Lower (OL), 8.9 MW Lower Bulb (LB), and 8.9 MW City Bulb (CB) hydropower plants; and a 250 kVA / 320 kWh Li-Ion battery with Fall River Electric Cooperative’s 5.5 MW Felt hydropower plant. The Idaho Falls Power demonstration showed the resilience benefits of hybridization, and the Fall River Electric demonstration showed what the minimal requirements are to retrofit a hydropower plant for black start. These demonstrations are funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office HydroWIRES Initiative.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Life Cycle Analysis of Methanol Production and Methanol-to-Diesel Conversion

Methanol is a strategic chemical and intermediate in the manufacture of synthetic diesel, due to its versatility, diesel’s compatibility with existing infrastructure, and their role in industrial and transport applications. Conventional production methods for methanol, primarily steam methane reforming (SMR), rely on natural gas and are subject to the price variability due to market conditions and geopolitical events. They are also associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Methanol and synthetic diesel production could be integrated with nuclear energy to stabilize fuel prices and insulate pricing from outside geopolitical events due to the relative stability of nuclear fuel as compared to natural gas. This could lead to increased transportation fuel security, reliability and resilience. An added benefit is the abatement of emissions when substituting nuclear energy for conventional energy from natural gas. This report presents a comprehensive life cycle analysis(LCA) framework which was developed to evaluate the GHG emissions reduction potential associated with nuclear integrated methanol production, methanol-to-diesel upgrading, and end-use combustion. Gate-to-gate methanol production and cradle-to-grave emissions were evaluated in, starting with a business-as-usual (BAU) SMR-based methanol plant, and then considering stepwise nuclear integration. Methanol-to-diesel (MTD) conversion was evaluated accounting for nuclear energy integration and hydrogen production via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) using electricity either from the grid or from a dedicated nuclear power system. This multi-step process diverts stable and reliable nuclear energy into the transportation sector by upgrading low energy dense natural gas into liquid fuels fully compatible with existing infrastructure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Valuing wind as a distributed energy resource: A literature review

As more distributed energy resources are deployed on electric grid systems across the world, it is important to identify, characterize, and quantify the value elements of different types of distributed energy resources so that policymakers, developers, and utilities can make informed energy deployment decisions. This paper focuses on the value of wind energy as a distributed energy resource (i.e., “distributed wind”). Because of a lack of distributed wind-specific valuation studies, in this review we document the current state of distributed energy resource valuation, analyze a wide array of distributed energy resource valuation metastudies, and identify several value elements for which we recommend developing more robust and standardized calculation methodologies for their potential inclusion in distributed wind valuation. These value elements are ancillary services and locational, resilience, reliability, and resource diversity benefits. Furthermore, this work lays the foundation for a future comprehensive framework for distributed wind valuation studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts and emerging research opportunities in Vehicle-Grid Integration for transportation: A review

This review provides a comprehensive examination of Vehicle-Grid Integration (VGI) technologies and their impacts on transportation systems, with a particular emphasis on the transportation-energy nexus. It systematically explores how VGI affects key transportation applications such as charging infrastructure planning, electric vehicle (EV) routing, smart charging coordination, shared mobility, and dynamic pricing. By synthesizing recent literature from both transportation and energy systems perspectives, this study highlights how advanced methodologies, such as reinforcement learning, game theory, and optimization techniques, are used to model the complex interactions between EVs, mobility patterns, and distributed energy systems. Furthermore, the review also identifies critical challenges, including behavioral factors, data limitations, and system scalability. Drawing on these insights, the paper outlines emerging research opportunities to support the design of integrated, resilient, and user-centric VGI solutions that advance sustainable mobility and energy system efficiency.

Charging coordination↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

ERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Additionally, gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Statistical Spread of Transmission Outages on a Fast Protection Time Scale Based on Utility Data

When there is a fault, the protection system automatically removes one or more transmission lines on a fast time scale of less than one minute. The outaged lines form a pattern in the transmission network. We extract these patterns from utility outage data, determine some key statistics of these patterns, and then show how to generate new patterns consistent with these statistics. The generated patterns provide a new and easily feasible way to model the overall effect of the protection system at the scale of a large transmission system. This new data-driven generative modeling of protection is expected to contribute to simulations of disturbances in large grids so that they can better quantify the risk of blackouts. Analysis of the pattern sizes suggests an index that describes how much outages spread in the transmission network at the fast timescale.

Transmission↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy-Flow-Environment Linkage Map

Understanding how flexibility in environmental requirements can facilitate co-optimization of hydropower production outcomes and environmental outcomes is critical for future grid decision-making and operations as renewable energy resources increase. The environmental and power system outcomes connectivity linkage maps presented here provide a framework for conceptually and quantitatively linking power system outcomes to environmental outcomes through hydropower flow decisions. The Executive Summary Map serves as a starting for exploring the links between hydropower system performance outcomes and environmental outcomes. The centralized topic is “Flow from Hydropower System,” and connects the hydropower operations through “Flow through turbines” and “Non-turbine flows”, and to environmental outcomes through Reservoir elevation” and “Flow downstream of the hydropower system”. To the left of these central topics, “Hydro-mechanical operations” are linked through “Hydro-electrical operations” to “Hydropower performance outcomes” (“Reliability”, “Resilience”, “Revenue”, “Emissions”). On the right, environmental outcomes are grouped together by their physical location: “Upstream Outcomes” (“Upstream geomorphology”, “Upstream recreation”, “Upstream habitat”, “Upstream biota and biodiversity”, “Upstream water quality and greenhouse gas”), Outcomes relevant to both “Upstream/downstream or dam interface” (“Navigation”, “Dam safety and maintenance", “Human health”, “Water supply”, “Flood control”, ”Fish passage”), and “Downstream outcomes“ (e.g., “Downstream geomorphology”, “Downstream recreations”, “Downstream habitat”, “Downstream biota and biodiversity”, “Downstream water quality and greenhouse gas”). Each of these subtopics (e.g., “Hydro-mechanical operations”, “Hydro-electrical operations”, “Upstream geomorphology”, “Upstream recreation”) is further explored through their corresponding submaps. The “Read Me” file provides more detail information on map navigation. The “Models and tools database” file provides detailed information of models and tools presented in the maps.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Emissions Reductions from DERs in REopt Lite

Creating a clear business justification for an energy & water project is essential for developing projects by transforming data and analysis into a compelling story to secure management buy-in. This presentation provides an overview of how distributed energy resources (DERs) can provide cost savings, resilience benefits, and emissions reduction. Many technical and economic factors affect which distributed energy technologies can best meet site goals, and should be considered concurrently. With increasingly integrated and complex systems, back-of-the envelope calculations are no longer sufficient to determine distributed energy project potential. REopt Lite can be used to model emissions and evaluate the impact of DERs on reducing emissions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emerging Threats in Transportation Security Related to Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

Transport of high-consequence shipments requires a resilient and robust systems of systems to guarantee cargo arrival. Furthermore, rising adoption of technologies such as connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), intelligent infrastructure, and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication presents unique challenges for securing transportation systems. Within these Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), several additional vulnerabilities exist that create pathways for adversarial attacks and cargo interception. For example, connectivity provides cyber pathways directly into vehicle systems and infrastructure for malicious actors. Furthermore, advanced vehicle automation exposes additional vehicle control necessary for shipment interception otherwise unavailable to adversaries. Within this paper, we will discuss the specific threats introduced by ITS-enabled technologies currently deployed and in development. These include those mentioned related to connectivity and automation, but will be expanded into grid, infrastructure, and vehicle specific threats. In addition, we will discuss how to potentially mitigate these emerging challenges as well as how to safeguard transportation systems from next generation attacks.

Cook, Adian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160825395)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses

Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Pathways from Alternative Carbon Feedstocks to Organic Commodity Chemicals

The use of biogenic and waste feedstocks is a promising strategy to improve the chemical sector's supply chain resiliency and carbon intensity. To help inform research efforts that transform these feedstocks into industrial chemicals, we used a systematic analysis framework to consistently evaluate the economics and environmental impacts of >200 alternative production pathways for 51 organic commodity chemicals in the United States under an optimistic future scenario that reflects the potential upper bounds of process scalability, energy availability, and carbon uptake. Lower-impact and lower-cost alternative pathways were identified for all but three chemicals, with 75% using thermochemical routes and half leveraging existing manufacturing infrastructure. Scenario analysis shows that the ranking of these pathways for half of the assessed chemicals is particularly sensitive to carbon uptake assumptions and criteria prioritization (i.e., cost only, environmental impact only, or both), with changes in electricity grid mix, hydrogen source, and underlying mass and energy flow data proving less influential. Implementing alternative pathways for just 11 chemicals could support a transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from chemical production by 2050, with 11% lower cost than business as usual, similar water requirements, quadrupled electricity demand, and the use of most available woody biomass. These findings provide an exploratory guide toward a future chemical industry that harnesses alternative feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗